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PB87-i77499 



Framingham Studyj An Epidemiological t 

Investigation of Cardiovascular Disease 
Section 34. Some Risk Factors Related to the 
Annual Incidence of Cardiovascular Disease and 
Death Using Pooled Repeated Biennial Measurements 
Farmingham Heart Study, 30-Year Follow-Up 



\ 



(U.S.) National 
Bethesda, MD 



Heart, Lung, and Blood Inst, 



Apr 87 



U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE 
National Technical Information Service 



n^upjupiig^^ 



PB87-177^99 



THE FRAMINGHAM STUDY 

An Epidemiological Investigation of Cardiovascular Disease 



Editors: William B. Kannel, M.D. , Philip A. Wolf, M.D. and 
Robert J. Garrison, M.S. 



Section 34: Seine Risk Factors Related to the Annual Incidence 
of Cardiovascular Disease and Death Using Pooled 
Repeated Biennial Measurements: Framingham Heart 
Study, 30-Year Followup 



L- Adrienne Cupples, Ph.D. and Ralph B. D'Agostino, Ph.D. 
with programming assistance of Dan Kiely, M.A. 



NATIONAL HEART, LUNG, AND BLOOD INSTITUTE 



U.S. DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES 
Public Health Service 
National Institutes of Health 

NIH Publication No. 87-2703 
February 1987 



REPRODUCED BY 

U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE 
NATIONAL TECHNICAL 
INFORMATION SERVICE 
SPRINGFIELD, VA 22161 



50277-101 



REPORT DOCUMENTATION 
PAGE 



1. REPORT NO. 

NIH Publication 



No. 87-2703 



3. R«cipi«nf ( Acca«*ion No. 

Pte8 7 1 7 T 4 9 9 /AS 



4. Title and Subtitle 

The Framingham Study, Section 34: Some Risk Factors Related to 
the Annual Incidence of Cardiovascular Disease and Death Using 
Pooled Repeated Biennial Measurements: Framingham Heart Study, 



S. Report Date 

date of issue 4/87 



7. Author(s) 

William B, 



Kannel, M.D. , Philip A. 



~30-Year hoi lowup 
Wolf, M.D., Robert J. 



Garrison 



8. Performing Organization Rept. No. 

, M.S. 



9. Performing Organization Name and Address 



10. Prolect/Task/Work Unit No. 



11. Contract(C) or Grant(G) No. 
(C) 

(G) 



IZ. Sponsoring Organization Name and Address 

National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute 
National Institutes of Health 
Bethesda, MD 20892 



13. Type of Report & Period Covered 

Final 1948-1987 



14. 



IS. Supplementary Notes 



16. Abstract (Limit: 200 words) 

Since 1948 the Framingham Heart Study has followed a sample of adults who in 1948 were 
residents of the town of Framingham, Massachusetts for development of cardiovascular 
disease. A standardized clinic examination was repeated at 2-year intervals. By this_ 
means a wide variety of • information has been collected which includes the characteristics 
of people in this studv cohort both before and after the development of cardiovascular 
disease, as well as a standardized clinical evaluation of changes in their cardiovascular 
status. 

The major concern of the study has been the evaluation of the relationship of potential 
risk factors determined in healthy individuals to the subsequent development of disease. 
The present reoort is an update for 30 years of fol lowup. 

Like earlier monographs in this series, this section is exclusively a display of data 
which provides detailed information for those who wish to interpret and use them for 
program planning, teaching, and for comparison with their own data. • The additional 
fol lowup provides a more substantial body of data in the geriatric age groups, for women, 
and for the less common cardiovascular endpoints. 



17. Document Analysis a. Descriptors 



b. Identifiers/Open-Ended Terms 



c. COSATI Field/Group 



18. Availability Statemen; 

Release Unl imited 



19. Security Class (This Report) 

UNCLASSIFIED 



20. SMurtty CIms (This Page) 

UNCLASSIFIED 



21. No. of Pages 

462 



22. Price 



(See ANSI-Z39.18) 



See Imtnidlont on ffeverse 



OPTIONAL FORM 272 (4-77) 
(Formerly NTIS-35) 
Depertment of Commerce 



N O 



THIS DOCUMENT HAS BEEN REPRODUCED FROM THE 
BEST COPY FURNISHED US BY THE SPONSORING 
AGENCY. ALTHOUGH IT IS RECOGNIZED THAT CER- 
TAIN PORTIONS ARE ILLEGIBLE, IT IS BEING RE- 
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AS MUCH INFORMATION AS POSSIBLE. 



I -C^' 



THE FRAMINGHAM STUDY 

An Epidemiological Investigation of Cardiovascular Disease 

Section 34: Some Risk Factors Related to the Annual Incidence 
of Cardiovascular Disease and Death Using Pooled 
Repeated Biennial Measurements: Framingham 
,, ■; Heart Study, 30-Year Followup 



U.S. DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES 
Public Health Service 
National Institutes of Health 



■ IJK' 



Some Risk Factors Related to the Annual Incidence of 

Cardiovasclar Disease and Death Using Pooled 

Repeated Biennal Measurements: Framingham Heart Study, 

30-Year follow-Up 

Since • 1948 the Framingham Heart Study has followed a sample 
of adults who in 1948 were residents of the town of Framingham, 
Massachusetts for development of cardiovascular disease. A 
standardized clinic examination was repeated at two-year 
intervals. By this means a wide variety of information has been 
collected which includes the characteristics of people in this 
study cohort both before and after the development of 
cardiovascular disease, as well as a standardized clinical 
evaluation of changes in their cardiovascular status. In 
addition, information about death and the development and course 
of disease has been obtained from a number of sources outside 
the clinic. 

The design and execution of the Study were described in 
Sections 1 and 2 of this series of monographs. A complete 
listing of prior monographs in this series is included at the 
end of this section. For some characteristics, mean values are 
given for the first seven examinations in Sections 3 and 4, and 
bivariate correlations are given for the second examination in 
Section 5. This material is updated in Section 29. The 
incidence of various events is given in Sections 6, 7, and 8. 
Criteria for events are given in Section 8, and a description of 
the characteristics in Section 3. These .are repeated and 
updated in Sections 26, 30 and in this report. 

The major concern of the Study has been the evaluation of 
the relationship of potential risk factors determined in healthy 
individuals to the subsequent development of disease. This is 
done in a systematic fashion in Sections 9 through 22, using the' 
14 year followup. The same general material updated to include 
16 years of followup is presented in Sections 26 and 27. 
Section 30 reports similar results for 18 years of followup. 
The present report is an update for 30 years of followup. 
Evaluation of survival following cardiovascular events has been 
examined in Sections 25 and 32. 

Like earlier monographs in this series, this section is - 
exclusively a display of data which provides detailed 
information for those who wish to interpret and use them for 
program planning, teaching, reviews and for comparison with 
their own data. The additional followup provides a more 
substantial body of data in the geriatric age groups, for women, 
and for the less common cardiovascular endpoints. 

METHODOLOGY 

One method of examining the relationship between potential 
risk factors and the development of disease is to measure the 
risk factors at a single moment in time and to follow 



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individuals in time to observe the incidence of disease. For 
example, in this study we could utilize the measurement of risk 
factors at exam 1 and report incidence over 3 years of followup 
according to different levels of these exam 1 measurements to 
ascertain whether a risk factor is associated with the 
subsequent development of disease. In this case, information 
obtained in exams 2 through 15 would be ignored. Since 
individuals change over time, this interim information which 
could influence the outcome would be lost. 

The methodology in this section utilizes all measurements 
determined on Exams 1 through 15 for those risk factors recorded 
virtually every two years and relates the risk factors to the 
occurrence of an event within two years after the exam. Other 
characteristics measured on only a few examinations are not 
included in this monograph. We refer to this approach of 
employing the biennial observations as the cross -sectional 
pooling method. 

This method evaluates each two-year interval as a new 
short-term followup study. After being characterized at entry 
into the study, persons are characterized anew at each following 
biennial examination. Hence, a person who attended twelve of the 
fifteen examinations during the 30-year followup contributes the 
information of twelve persons who enter the study at the 
beginning of a two-year cycle with the risk factors measured at 
the twelve examinations. More accurately, this person 
contributes the information of twelve person exams. To 
implement this approach, an observation is generated for each 
examination. The information obtained on the 15 two-year 
intervals is then pooled to obtain a file from which two-year 
predictions can be examined. 

This method is to be distinguished from the long-term 
perspective described earlier in which observations only from 
exam 1 are employed to examine the development of disease over 
30 years of followup. The cross-sectional pooling method as 
implemented in this section considers only the next two years of 
followup, given an individual's current age, sex, and risk 
factor status. The inherent assumption is that only the current 
risk factor status of an individual is needed to predict the 
risk of disease in the next two years. 



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DESCRIPTION OF TABLES 
The tables in this section of the monograph series, Section 
34, present data for 23 events and 19 potential risk factors. 
The tables are numerically sequenced according to the 
combination of an event and a risk factor with the numbers 
indexed as follows: 

Numbering Scheme for Event-Risk Factor Combinations 
Framingham Study Monograph 3 0-year Followup 

EVENTS •■ ■ ' ■' 

1. Coronary Heart Disease 

2. Coronary Heart Disease other than Angina Pectoris 

3 . Myocardial Infarction 

4. Myocardial Infarction unrecognized 

5. Myocardial Infarction recognized 

6. Coronary Insufficiency 

7. Angina Pectoris 

8. Angina Pectoris- uncomplicated 

9. Sudden Coronary Death among persons free of CHD 

10. Sudden Coronary Death among all persons 

11. Coronary Heart Disease Death among persons free of CHD 

12. Coronary Heart Disease Death among all persons 

13. Stroke and Transient Ischemic Attack 

14. Atherothrombotic Brain Infarction 

15. Transient Ischemic Attack 

16. Stroke Death among persons free of Stroke and TIA 

17. Stroke Death among all persons 

18. Intermittent Claudication 

19. Congestive Heart Failure 

20. Cardiovascular Disease 

21. Cardiovascular Disease Death among persons free of CVD 

22. Cardiovascular Disease Death among all persons 

23. Death among all persons 

RISK FACTORS • 

1. Systolic Blood Pressure, First examiner 

2. Diastolic Blood Pressure, First examiner 

3A. Hypertension with antihypertensive treatment 

3B. Hypertension ignoring treatment 

4. Serum Cholesterol - _ . - 

Hematocrit 

Blood glucose 

Diabetes mellitus 

Glucose in Urine 

Glucose intolerance 

10. Metropolitan Relative Weight 

11. Vital Capacity 

12. Heart Rate 

13. Cigarettes smoked per day 

14. Albumin in Urine 

15. Heart enlargement by x-ray 

16. Left Ventricular Hypertrophy 

17. Intraventricular conduction defect 

18. Nonspecific T-wave or ST-segment abnormality by ECG 

-3- 



9 



The numbering scheme on the tables indicates the number of the 

event first and then the number of the risk factor. For 

example, the table for Myocardial Infarction and Cigarettes 
smoked per day is numbered as 3-13. 

Each table displays for each sex descriptive infoirmation on 
the relationship between the risk factor and the risk of the 
specified subsequent event in a two-year period. Logistic 
regression coefficients, for the risk factor, including 
univariate, bivariate with age at exam, and multivariate 
analyses, are displayed at the bottom of the table- The 
descriptive portion of the table displays annual rates for 6 age 
groups: 35-44, 45-54, 55-64, 65-74, 75-84, 85-94. Age-adjusted 
annual rates computed by the direct method are also given for 
age groups 35-64 and 65-94. Age-specific logistic regressions, 
using the above specified 10-year age groups, and regressions 
for age groups 35-64 and 65-94 are also based upon the two-year 
cross-sectional pooling method and indicate the risk of the 
event in the next two years of followup among persons free of 
the event at the beginning the two-year interval. However, the 
rates are expressed as the average annual rate per 1000, 

The header of each table indicates the sex, event, risk 
factor, and the population at risk for each table. Each risk 
factor-event combination is presented on one page with the top 
half for males and the bottom for females. 

Population at Risk 

These tables report results only for persons free of 
cardiovascular disease at exam 1, so that any person with 
coronary heairt disease, cerebrovascular disease, intermittent 
claudication, or congestive heart failure is excluded from 
consideration. In addition, for non-fatal events the population 
at risk consists generally of persons free of the event under 
consideration at the beginning of a two-year interval. For 
coronary heart disease (CHD) events (tables 1-8) , persons must 
be free of CHD. For cerebrovascular events (tables 13-15) , 
persons must be free of stroke and transient ischemic attack 
(TIA) . For intermittent claudication (IC) in table 18, 
congestive heart failure (CHF) in table 19, and cardiovascular 
disease (CVD) in table 20, persons must be free of these 
respective events. For fatal events, two tables are displayed, - 
one for persons free of the disease at each exam interval and 
one for all persons free of cardiovascular disease at exam 1. 
For overall death, only the latter table is provided. For CHD 
death events in tables 9 and 11 persons must be free of coronary 
heart disease while in tables 10 and 12 all persons free of 
cardiovascular disease at exam 1 are at risk including those 
with interim CHD events. 

Risk Factor Description 

The range of each risk factor, from the lowest to the 
highest value observed in the fifteen exams, is displayed in 
each table. The tables for hematocrit and vital capacity-height 



-4- 



index are the only tables which have different ranges for men 
and women. 

Each individual is characterized by his or her value at an 
exam. If that value is unknown, the most recent, known value at 
a previous exam is used. An exception to this rule is diabetes 
mellitus (risk factor 7) . Once a person is diagnosed as being 
diabetic, that person retains that diagnosis on all subsequent 
exams. 

Results Reported 

A table takes into account risk factors on all of the first 
fifteen examinations and the incidence of the specified event in 
the fifteen biennial intervals of the 30-year followup and 
consolidates this by the cross-sectional pooling method into an 
average annual incidence rate by age, sex, and level of the risk 
factor. The statistics shown are: 

Person Exams 

On each of the first fifteen examinations, persons who are 
free of cardiovascular disease at exam 1 and currently free of 
the event under consideration are considered at risk of 
developing the event in the next two-year interval. The 
person-exams column reports the number of all such exams from 
the persons at risk over the 30-year period. An individual who 
entered the study at exam 1 may contribute up to 15 
observations, one for each exam at which he or she is at risk. 
Also, individuals can contribute to more than one age group over 
the 30 years of followup as long as that person is at risk of 
developing disease. Hence, the tables of this report do not 
yield the counts of people taking the exams. See Section 9 of 
the monograph series to obtain counts of persons distributed by 
various risk factors for the first seven exams. 

# of Events 

This column contains the number of subjects in the 
population at risk at an examination who develop a primary event 
in the two-year interval between that examination and the next. 
The numbers developing the event in a two-year interval are 
summed over the first fifteen examinations. The entries in this 
column are suppressed for an age group when .fewer than five 
events occur in that age group. 

Annual Rate ^ ■ 

The annual rate is reported as the number of events per 1000 
person years. It is obtained by dividing the number of events 
by twice the person exams to adjust for the two-year followup. 
This column is suppressed when fewer than five events occur in 
an age group. 

Crude Annual Rate ' . 

In the middle of each page on the right, summary results are ' 
displayed for age groups 35-64 and 65-94. First, a column for 

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the sum of the events in the age group is given by level of the 
risk factor. Next, the crude annual rate per 1000 person 
yearsis provided. It is computed by dividing the number of 
events by twice the population at risk (i.e. the total number of 
person exams) . The latter can be obtained by summing the 
age-specific persons exams columns for the respective ten-year 
age groups. 

Age-adjusted Annual Rate 

The age-adjusted rates per 1000 person years are computed by 
the direct method (Fleiss, 1981) using the ten-year age group 
information provided. The standardizing age distribution 
employed for this computation is the total number of persons in 
each ten-year age group. Hence, each age-specific rate is 
weighted by the total number of persons in the age group, and 
the sum of the weighted products is then divided by the total 
number of persons in the standardizing age distribution. For 
example, the age-adjusted annual rate of CHD (Table 1-1) for 
persons 35-64 with systolic blood pressure in the range 74-119 
is computed as 

4472*(7/(2*1223n + 7724* (21/ (2*1769n + 8049* (3 1/ ( 2*1440) ) 

4472 + 7724 + 8049 

Logistic regression coefficients of the risk factor 

In the bottom portion of the table, logistic regression 
coefficients for the risk factor, computed by the maximum 
likelihood method, are reported. First, age-specific 
coefficients are given, then univariate, bivariate with age, and 
multivariate coefficients are reported for the 35-64 and 65-94 
age groups. 

The age-specific logistic regression coefficients are 
reported for each ten-year age group. The logistic model 
employed for these age-specific computations is 
Pr( event in the next two years) = 
p = 1/(1 + exp(-a - bX)) 
where a and b are the logistic parameters to be estimated and X 
is the value of the risk factor under consideration for a person 
in the population at risk. See Schlesselman (1982) for further 
explanation of the logistic model. According to the 
cross-sectional pooling approach, a person may contribute 
several observations to each computation as long as they remain 
in the age group. The coefficient indicates the logarithm of 
the change in the odds of developing the event in. the next two 
years for each unit increase in the risk factor among persons 
free of the event. To obtain the risk of developing disease' in 
the next two years, the logistic model must be employed to 
estimate p. 

Iterative maximum likelihood estimation procedures available 
in the "Legist" procedure of Supplemental Library of the 
Statistical Analysis System (SAS) were employed to obtain 



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estimates of the coefficients. This procedure utilizes zeros as 
initial values for the iterative procedure. When the procedure 
would not converge with these initial estimates, we employed 
starting values obtained ffom linear regression models. 

When fewer than 5 events occur in an age group, the 
regression results are suppressed. In other situations where 
the regression coefficients are inestimable or nearly so, such 
as the case where all individuals who develop disease have the 
same value of the risk factor, dashes are displayed. 

For continuous variables, the actual value of the risk 
factor is employed. The classes for categorical variables are 
indicated in the top portion of the table, and their coding is 
explained in the description of the risk factors in this report. 

The univariate results report the logistic coefficients for 
the combined 35-64 and 65-94 age groups. Only the risk factor 
under consideration is included in the model in these 
computations. 

The bivariate coefficients are computed from logistic models 
with age and the risk factor under consideration. These results 
are analogous to the age-adjusted rate computations, provided 
that the relationship between the risk factor and the event 
follows a logistic model with the log(p/(l-p)) changing in a 
linear fashion as the risk factor increases. The table displays 
only the coefficient for the risk factor under consideration and 
not the age coefficient. 

The multivariate coefficients indicate the partial or 
"independent" effect of the risk factor after taking into 
account the risk factors known to be associated with 
cardiovascular disease: age, systolic blood pressure, serum 
cholesterol, cigarettes smoked per day, glucose intolerance, and 
electrocardiographic left ventricular hypertrophy. The table 
reports only the coefficient for the risk factor under 
consideration from the multiple logistic model: 
p = 1/(1 + exp(-bo - b|Xi)) 

where Xj_ represents the risk factor under consideration and 
the other risk factors listed above. Generally, there are seven 
variables in this model. In cases where the risk factor under 
consideration is one of the known risk factors, there are six 
variables. Further, when the risk factor is highly correlated 
with one of the known risk factors, the model contains six 
variables. For example, when the risk factor is diasfolic blood 
pressure or hypertension (tables 2, 3A and 3B) , systolic blood 
pressure is dropped. For blood glucose, diabetes mellitus, and 
glucose in the urine (tables 6-8) , glucose intolerance " is 
dropped. 

Standard Error of the Logistic Coefficient 

The standard error of the logistic regression coefficients 
obtained from the second derivative of the information matrix 
and computed by the Legist procedure in SAS are reported in this 
column. 

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P-value 

The p-value is obtained by computing the ratio of the 
logistic coefficient to its standard error and comparing it to 
the standard normal distribution. 

Standardized Coefficient 

The standardized logistic regression coefficient is computed 
as the product of the maximum likelihood coefficient obtained 
from the Legist procedure in SAS and the standard deviation of 
the risk factor in the population at risk. 

Standardized bj_ = bj_*SD(Xj_) See Truett, Cornfield, Kannel 
(1967) and Schlesselman (1982) for a reference each standardized 
coefficient measures the change in the log odds or log (p/(l-p)) 
of risk for each change of one standard deviation of the risk 
variable and is often used as a measure of the importance of 
changes in that variable relative to changes in other risk 
variables. There is considerable controversy regarding the use 
of standardized coefficients (Greenland, Schlesselman, and 
Criqui (1986)) and caution is advised. 

Standardized Standard Error 

The standard error of the standardized logistic regression 
coefficient is computed by equating the ratio of the 
standardized coefficient to its standard error with the 
respective unstandardized ratio so that the two ratios have the 
same p-value. Hence, it is computed as 
SE (standardized b^) = (SE (bj_)/bj_) * standardized bj_ 
Note that this is equivalent to assuming that the variance in 
the risk factor is estimated with high accuracy. 



-8- 



■ * CRITERIA FOR EVENTS 

1, Coronary Heart Disease 

Subjects were diagnosed as having developed coronary heart 
disease (CHD) if upon review of the case a panel of three 
investigators agreed on one of the following definite 
manifestations of CHD: ■ myocardial infarction, coronary 
insufficiency, angina pectoris, sudden death from CHD, 
non-sudden death from CHD. Persons with pre-existing CHD at 
Exam 1 were excluded from the population at risk of developing 
CHD. Pre-existing CHD at Exam 1 was identified by any one of 
the following diagnoses at Exam 1: definite angina pectoris, 
definite history of myocardial infarction, definite myocardial 
infarction by electrocardiogram, doubtful myocardial infarction 
by electrocardiogram, definite coronary insufficiency by 
electrocardiogram and history. 

The various manifestations of CHD are these: 

Angina pectoris 

Brief recurrent chest discomfort of up to 15 minutes 
duration, precipitated by exertion or emotion and relieved by 
rest or by nitroglycerine, was regarded as angina pectoris (AP) 
if two physicians interviewing the subject agreed that this 
condition was definitely present. This diagnosis was based 
solely on evaluation of subjective manifestations. Abnormality 
of the resting or exercise electrocardiogram was not required 
for this diagnosis. 

Angina pectoris uncomplicated 

If angina pectoris developed between two successive 
examinations but the person remained free of any other 
manifestation of coronary heart disease, the diagnosis was 
designated as angina pectoris uncomplicated. 

Coronary heart disease other than angina pectoris (Coronary 
Attack) 

Because an interest is often expressed in the incidence of 
"heart attacks," this category is established to represent the 
occurrence of myocardial infarction, coronary insufficiency, or 
death from coronary heart disease. 

Myocardial infarction 

Recent or acute myocardial infarction (MI) was designated 
when there were serial changes in the electrocardiograms 
indicating the evolution of an infarction, including: S-T 
segment elevation in the electrocardiographic tracing associated 
with terminal inversion of T waves and the loss of initial QRS 
potentials (that is, development of "pathologic" Q waves of 0.04 
second duration or greater) , followed by serial changes 
indicating reversion towards normal. An old or remote 
myocardial infarction was considered to be present when the 

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electrocardiogram showed a stable pattern including a pathologic 
Q wave of 0.04 second or greater or loss of initial QRS 
potential (R wave) in those leads in which this would not be 
expected to occur. Also, an interim unrecognized MI was 
indicated when changes from a previous tracing showed 
development of loss of R-wave potential or appearance of 
pathologic Q waves not otherwise explained, in persons in whom 
neither the patient. nor his physician considered the possibility 
of MIo If the patient was asymptomatic for chest pain or upper 
abdominal pain during the interval at which the unrecognized MI 
occurred, the event was classified as silent, unrecognized. 
More weight was given to this finding if a T-wave abnormality 
was also associated with Q-wave abnormality. 

Beginning in 1956, a hospital report for a subject showing a 
rise in the serum glutamic oxalacetic transaminase to a level of 
at least 60 units along with a history of prolonged ischemic 
chest pain was accepted as evidence of myocardial infarction. 
Subsequently, in 1962, pathologic elevation of another enzyme 
was included: lactic dehydrogenase greater than 500 units. At 
a later date, with a change in laboratory techniques, SCOT was 
abnormal at 50 and LDH at 200. CPK greater than 200 units or 
CPK-MB band positive was included if these tests were done. 

An autopsy report showing an acute, new, or recent 
infarction of the myocardium was accepted as evidence of an 
incident myocardial infarction. Because it is not possible to 
date an old infarction found on autopsy such evidence was not 
used in the clinical diagnosis of a new event, unless there was 
an interim clinical event suspected of being an infarction. 

Coronary insufficiency 

The coronary insufficiency syndrome was designated when a 
history of prolonged ischemic chest pain was accompanied by 
transient ischemic S-T segment and T-wave abnormality in the 
electrocardiographic tracing but not accompanied by development 
of Q-wave abnormality or by serum enzyme changes characteristic 
of myocardial necrosis. Virtually all these subjects were 
hospitalized for suspected MI. 

Coronary heart disease death 

Death from coronary heart disease was diagnosed as either- - 
sudden or nonsudden. 

Nonsudden death from CHD 

If the terminal episode lasted longer than one hour, if the 
available information implied that the cause of death "was 
probably CHD, and if no other cause could be ascribed, this was 
called nonsudden death from CHD. In making this diagnosis, the 
review panel used prior clinical information as well as 
information concerning the final illness. 

Sudden death from coronary heart disease 

If a subject, 'apparently well, was observed to have died 
within a few minutes (operationally documented as under one 
hour) from onset of symptoms and if the cause of death could not 

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reasonably be attributed on the basis of the full clinical 

information and the information concerning death to some 

potentially lethal disease other than coronary heart disease, 

this was called sudden death and was attributed to coronary 
heart disease. 

Stroke 

The diagnosis of overt vascular disease of the brain was 
based on the occurrence of a stroke. Minimal criteria for a 
stroke consisted of abrupt onset of a localizing neurologic 
deficit (such as hemiparesis, aphasia, homonymous hemianopia) . 
For stroke due to intracranial hemorrhage, a change in the state 
of consciousness, headache, and signs of meningeal irritation in 
association with a bloody spinal fluid under increased pressure 
with or without other localizing neurological deficits. On 
recent examinations, CAT scan information has been used to 
confirm hemorrhage. A diagnosis of embolus to the brain was 
made if a source for embolus (that is, atrial fibrillation, 
rheumatic heart disease with mitral stenosis, recent myocardial 
infarction, bacterial endocarditis) was present, the clinical 
course consistent (that is, rapid onset and clearing, slightly 
bloody spinal fluid, a more localized deficit) , or the 
occurrence of associated peripheral emboli elsewhere noted. A 
consultant neurologist and the clinical staff of the study 
reviewed hospital and clinic protocols. Starting with Exam 8 
neurologists have examined patients suspected of stroke in the 
hospital. 

Atherothrombotic. brain infarction 

Specifically, thrombotic brain infarction was defined as the 
sudden onset of a localizing neurologic deficit (for example, 
aphasia, homonymous hemianopia, a central type of facial 
weakness, hemiparesis) documented by a physician, lasting longer 
than 24 hours, in the absence of: 1) known source of embolism 
(atrial fibrillation, rheumatic heart disease with mitral 
stenosis, myocardial infarction within preceding six months, 
bacterial endocarditis) , 2) intracranial hemorrhage 
(intracerebral, subarachnoid), 3) known hypercoagulable states 
(for example, erythremia) 4) other disease processes causing 
focal brain deficits (brain tumor, subdural hematoma, 
hypoglycemia) . All stroke data were evaluated by a.- 
neurologist. On recent examinations CAT-scan information has 
been used to exclude intracranial hemmorrhage. 

Transient Ischemic Attack 

A transient ischemic attack was designated when a history of 
a focal neurologic deficit was documented which lasted less than 
24 hours in duration. 

Stroke Death 

Death attributed to stroke was designated when a documented 
focal neurologic deficit of greater than 24 hours duration 
preceeded death and was responsible for the fatality. 

-11- 



Intermittent claudication 

Minimum criteria for the subjective diagnosis of 
intermittent claudication consisted of a cramping discomfort in 
the calf clearly provoked by walking some distance with the pain 
appearing sooner when walking quickly or uphill and being 
relieved within a few minutes by rest. Interviews for symptoms 
of claudication were conducted by the physician using structured 
forms for uniformity of the assessment. In addition, a second 
physician confirmed all cases suspected of claudication at time 
of examination. 

Congestive heart failure 

A definite diagnosis of congestive heart failure required 
that a minimum of two major or one major and two minor criteria 
present concurrently. The presence of other conditions capable 
of producing the symptoms and signs was considered in evaluating 
the findings. 

Major criteria; 

1) Paroxysmal nocturnal dyspnea. 

2) Distended neck veins (in other than the supine 
position) . 

3) Rales. 

4) Increasing heart size by X-ray 

5) Acute pulmonary edema described in hospital record. 

6) Ventricular S(3) gallop. 

7) Increased venous pressure (greater than 16 cm H2O from 
right atrium) . 

8) Circulation time (greater than 24 seconds, arm to 
tongue) . 

9) Hepatojugular reflux. 

10) Pulmonary edema, visceral congestion, cardiomegaly shown 
on autopsy. 

Minor criteria; 

1) Bilateral ankle edema. 

2) Night cough. 

3) Dyspnea on ordinary exertion. 

4) Hepatomegaly. 

5) Pleural effusion. 

6) Decrease in vital capacity by one-third from maximum 
record. 

7) Tachycardia (120 beats per minute or more) . 

Arbitrary major or minor criterion; 

Weight loss (ten pounds or more In five days) while on 
therapy for congestive heart failure. 



-12- 



Cardiovascular disease 

Cardiovascular disease is considered to have developed if 
there is a definite manifestation of coronary heart disease, 
intermittent claudication, congestive heart failure, stroke or 
transient ischemic attack in the absence of a previous 
manifestation of any of these diseases or rheumatic heart 
disease. Criteria for all these events have been given. A 
person having more than one cardiovascular manifestation within 
the followup period is counted as a case only at the time of the 
first event. 

Death from cardiovascular disease 

This cause of death was designated when any disease of the 
heart or blood vessels was considered responsible. 

Death 

The fact of death was supported by a death certificate. 
Additional information was obtained from records supplied by 
hospital, attending physician, pathologist, medical examiner, or 
family. A panel of staff physicians reviewed all evidence to 
arrive at the cause of death. 



-13- 



DESCRIPTION OF CHARACTERISTICS 

1. Blood pressure, first examiner, systolic fmm Hg) 

2 . Blood pressure, first examiner, diastolic fmm Hg) 

Systolic and diastolic readings in the left arm of the 
subject were taken with a mercurial sphygmomanometer and a 14 -cm 
cuff long enough to fit the most obese arm. The recommendations 
of the American and British Heart Associations were followed for 
reading the pressure (see Standardization of Blood Pressure 
Readings, American Heart Journal, July 1939, 18:95). Palpatory 
method was used to check auscultatory systolic readings. 
Measurement was expressed in millimeters of mercury on the scale 
of the manometer. Although the original protocol did not 
specify the accuracy of the measurement to be employed most 
readings were made to the nearest even number. After Exam 5 
this became the standard practice. 

At the beginning of the Study two readings were taken on 
each subject: 1) admission blood pressure taken by the nurse 
and 2) final blood pressure taken by the examining physician. 
Beginning in April 1950 three readings were taken on each 
subject: 1) admission blood pressure taken by the nurse, 2) 
blood pressure taken by the first examining physician at the 
start of his interview, and 3) another blood pressure taken at 
the end of the examination by a second physician after drawing 
blood. All of these pressures were taken on the left arm with 
the subject seated and the arm at heart level. In coding blood 
pressure at Exam 1 for subjects through Recotd Number 293 8, the 
nurse's blood pressure -is used as the reading by the first 
examining physician. 

Minor changes in procedure have occurred in some earlier 
exams. A second blood pressure reading by the same examining 
physician has been substituted for a reading by a second 
examiner when a second observer was not present. 

3 . Hypertension 

At examination, a subject had two blood pressure readings 
taken by the examining physician (s) . If both readings were 
"abnormal" the subject had definite hypertension;- if both - 
readings were "normal" the subject had normotjension; with any 
other combination of readings the subject had borderline 
hypertension. 

A blood pressure reading was "abnormal" if either the 
systolic or the diastolic component was "abnormal". The reading 
was "noirmal" if both systolic and^ diastolic parts were 
"normal". A systolic pressure was called "normal" when under 
140 mm Hg, "abnormal" when 160 or greater. A diastolic pressure 
was called "normal" when under 90 mm Hg, "abnormal" when 95 or 
greater. Thus, a person was a definite hypertensive if both of 
the following conditions held: 



-14- 



1. the first systolic pressure was 160 or greater or the 
first diastolic pressure was 95 or greater. 

and 

2. the second systolic pressure was 160 or greater or the 
second diastolic pressure was 95 or greater. 

When on rare occasion a subject had only one blood pressure 
reading taken by the examining physician, hypertensive status 
was determined on the basis of this one reading. 

For purposes of analysis in this monograph, hypertension was 
evaluated in two fashions: (1) one utilizing only blood 
pressure readings as described above and (2) one in which 
individuals not treated with anti-hypertensive medication were 
classified on the basis of blood pressure while persons treated 
with anti-hypertensive medication were considered as definite 
hypertensives. 

4. Serum cholesterol fmq/lOO ml) 

At the beginning of the Study, serum cholesterol 
concentrations were determined by the colorimetric method of 

Sperry (Schoenheimer and Sperry: J. Biol. Ghem. 106, 745, 

1934. Sperry: Am. J, Clin. Path. & Tech. Supplement 2, 91, 

1938). On December 12, 1952 after the start of Exam 2, the 

method of Abell-Kendall was adopted (Abell, L.L., Levy, B.B., 

Brodie, B.B., and Kendall, F.E., J.. Biol. Chem. 195, 357-366, 
1952). 

5. Hematocrit 

Blood was collected in a balanced oxalate tube and spun at 
5000 rpm for 20 minutes. Hematocrit was read in the tube 
against a special scale constructed for this purpose. This 
method proved more reliable than the standard capillary method. 
On exams 1 to 3 , hemoglobin was measured instead of hematocrit. 
These measurements were converted into hematocrit by dividing by 
3.129. 

6. Blood glucose (mg/lOO ml) - ■ • 

The amount of glucose present in a casual specimen of the 
subject's whole blood (collected in a solution of- potassium - 
oxalate and sodium flouride) was determined using the method of 
Nelson (Nelson, B. , J. Biol. Chem. 153, 375, 1944; Somogyi, M. , 
J. Biol. Chem. 160, 61, 1945; Somogyi, M. , J. Biol. Chem. 160', 
69, 1945). Blood glucose was measured on Exams 1 t.o 4,, 6, 8, 9, 
and 10, 12-15 (not on Exams 5, 7 and 11). 

7 . Diabetes mellitus 

A subject was diagnosed as having diabetes if he or she was 
under treatment by a private physician for diabetes or the 
subject had a record of an abnormal glucose tolerance test or 
had on at least two exams a casual blood glucose determination 
of 150 mg/100 ml or more. 



■15- 



Treatment by private physician meant that the subject was 
taking insulin or oral hypoglycemic agents. In addition, if the 
subject was taking oral agents, the diagnosis of diabetes was 
made only if records from the Framingham Study, private 
physician, or hospital showed several elevated blood glucose 
determinations before treatment started. For this purpose an 
elevated blood glucose meant a value of 150 mg/100 ml or higher. 

The study did not give subjects glucose tolerance tests; 
therefore the record of such tests had to be obtained from a 
private physician or hospital. The standard glucose tolerance 
test was taken as the ingestion of 100 grams of glucose after a 
12-hour fast. The test was considered abnormal if the blood 
glucose concentration was 160 mg/100 ml or more at one hour 
after challenge, 140 or more at two hours, and was still higher 
at three hours than when the test began. 

8. Glucose in urine, definite or trace 

Procedure for testing the presence of glucose in a subject's 
freshly voided urine was as follows: 

To five drops of urine in test tube add 10- drops of water 

and one Clinitest tablet. Allow to stand 15 seconds after 

boiling has ceased and then read promptly. Compare color to 

chart provided with tablets. Read as: negative, 1+, 2+, 3+, or 
4+. 

In coding the result of the color comparison, definite urine 
glucose is 2+, 3+, or 4+; trace urine glucose is 1+. 

After exam 11, the Ames Combustix (Labstix) method was 
employed. 

9 . Glucose intolerance ■ . . 

A subject was said to demonstrate glucose intolerance at 
examination if any one of the following conditions obtained: 

a) A diagnosis of diabetes mellitus at that exa-mination or 
any preceding examination; 

b) A determination of glucose in the urine sample, either- 
definite or trace by Clinitest or Combustix, at that 
examination; 

c) A measurement of the amount of glucose present in a 
casual specimen of whole blood equal to 120 milligrams or more 
per 100 milliliters at that examination. 

10 . Metropolitan relative weight (percent) 

This relative weight at exam was computed for a subject by 
forming the ratio of his body weight at that exam to the 
desirable weight for his particular sex-height group according 
to standards set by the Metropolitan Life Insurance Company. 



-16- 



The ratio is expressed as a whole number in percent. The 
reference weight, for a given sex-height group, is the midpoint 
of the range for medium frame shown in the table of desirable 
weights on page 12 of "Four Steps to Weight Control" (1969), 
distributed by the Metropolitan Life Insurance Company. By 
linear extrapolation, reference weights were assigned to those 
sex-height groups not covered by the Metropolitan table, women 
55 inches and men 60 inches tall. Since the desirable weights 
are shown for persons with their clothes and shoes on, 
adjustments are made to apply the reference weight to the 
subjects in the Framingham Study, who were weighed without 
clothes and measured for height without shoes: five pounds are 
subtracted from the weight for men, four 

pounds for women; one inch was subtracted from the height for 
men, two inches for women. The resulting set of reference 
weights is: 



Height 


Weiaht 


(■pounds) 


finches) 


Men 


Women 


55 




94 


56 




97 


57 




100 


58 




103 


59 




106 


Height 


Weight 


(pounds) 


finches) 


Men 


Women 


60 


116 


109 


61 . 


119 


112 


62 


122 • 


116 


63 


125 


120 


64 


128 


124 



Height 


Weiaht 


(pounds) 


(inches) 


Men 


Women 


65 


131 


128 


66 


135 


132 


67 


140 


136 


68 


144 


140 


69 


148 




Height 


Weiaht 


(pounds) 


(inches) 


Men 


Women 


70 


152 




71 


157 




72 - 


161 




73 


166 




74 


170 





11. vital capacity-height index (ml/inch) 

A nurse or technician instructed the subject to take the 
deepest breath possible and exhale to the fullest extent into 
the tube of a water-sealed spirometer (Collins Vitalometer) . 
Three trials were made for each subject; the highest reading was 
recorded. This measurement of vital capacity was read to the 
next lower 0.1 liter on the scale of the spirometer. The vital 
capacity in milliliters was divided by the subject's height in 
inches to get the vital capacity-height index. -...,-.. 

12 . Heart rate (per minute) 

The heart rate is the ventricular rate as determined by the 
physician from the electrocardiogram made with the subject in 
the recumbent position. Electrocardiograms were made at each 
exam and the ventricular rate was coded for data processing for 
all exams except 2 and 3. 

13. Cigarettes smoked (number per day) 

Histories of cigarette smoking were obtained on every exam 
except Exam 6. However, information from the first three exams 
was coded to represent usage at Exam 1, leaving Exams 2 and 3 



-17- 



uncoded. On the initial examinations there was no fixed rule 
for deciding whether a person was an ex-cigarette smoker, but 
persons who had only recently stopped were always considered 
still smoking. On later examinations anyone smoking cigarettes 
within a year was considered a current smoker. For current 
smoker, the number of cigarettes usually smoked each day v/as 
recorded. Additional details are given in Sections 3 and 2 6 of 
the monograph series. 

14 . Albumin in urine, definite 

Procedure for testing for the presence of albumin in a 
subject's freshly voided urine was as follows: 

To 10 cc of urine in test tube add 2 cc reagent (Quantitest 
reagents: beta naphthalene sulphonic acid and glacial acetic 
acid) . Allow to stand. Result is read in milligrams of albumin 
per 100 milliliters by comparing turbidity with standards in 
lighted rack. In coding the result of the turbidity comparison, 
definite urine albumin is 20 mg/100 ml or higher; trace urine 
albumin is 10 mg/ 100 ml. 

This method was employed for examinations 1 to 8 , though the 
results were not coded on Exam 4. Since Exam 9, the Combustix 
(Labstix) method has been utilized to determine urine albumin. 

15. Heart enlargement by x-ray 

Roentgenograms were taken at each exam with a Westinghouse 
Autoflex • 300-milliampere X-ray-' unit and with a Machlett 
superdynamax tube. The subject was positioned erect in 
max-respiration phase with full anterior chest against the film 
cassette. ■ The X-ray tube was placed at level of seventh 
thoracic vertebra, a distance of two meters from anode to film. 
The film size was 14 x 17 inches. Beginning in Exam 4 the 
machine was actuated by a device attached to the subject through 
electrodes applied to the left and right axillary margin at 
level of the seventh rib, to take the X-ray at the moment of 
full diastole. (Peak of R wave plus 0.008 second to 
termination of exposure insured the shadow of the cardiac 
silhouette in full systole.) The transthoracic Lead I 
electrocardiographic tracing showing the point of X-ray exposure 
was printed at the top of the exposed X-ray film before 
development. 

All films were interpreted by a roentgenology consultant who 
did not have access to clinical data on the subject before 
viewing his films. Beginning in early 1952 one consultant. Dr. 
Lloyd E. Hawes, viewed all films taken at the Framingham Heart 
Clinic and made the X-ray interpretations. 

The diagnosis of left ventricular hypertrophy signified that 
this chamber was enlarged as shown by an extension of the left 
apex of the heart towards the left, an elevation of the apex and 
a squaring of the apex. The transverse diameter of the heart 
was usually more than half the transverse width of the chest. 

-18- 



However, in a subject with a large chest the square prominent 
shape of the left apex of the heart may have signified left 
ventricular hypertrophy even with transverse diameter of the 
heart less than half the width of the chest. The diagnosis of 
left . ventricular hypertrophy could be made with normal 
measurement of the transverse diameter of the heart. 

The diagnosis of generalized cardiac enlargement was made 
when the heart shadow was rounded and expanded both to the right 
and the left, giving an appearance not of left ventricular 
hypertrophy alone but of either a dilatation of all chambers or 
a dilatation of the atria and right ventricle as in- mitral heart 
disease. 

A diagnosis of generalized cardiac enlargement and left 
ventricular hypertrophy was made if the heart was rounded 
overall and enlarged, and the apex projected further out and was 
square and prominent. 

A subject with heart enlargement had either generalized 
cardiac enlargement or left ventricular hypertrophy or both. 

16. Left ventricular hypertrophy by electrocardiogram 

Electrocardiograms were taken at each exam with a Sanborn 
Visocardiette. The subject was in the recumbent position. 
Thirteen leads were used, three standard, three augmented 
unipolar limb leads, and seven precordial leads of Wilson. See 
description of technique, pages 31 to 44, Katz, 
Electrocardiography , Lee and Febiger, Philadelphia, 1947. 

Left ventricular hypertrophy consisted of a tracing 
exhibiting a slight prolongation of "ventricular activation 
time" (at least 0.05 second on the left) associated with R-wave 
potentials of at least 20 mm in standard leads, at least 11 mm 
in augmented unipolar leads, at least 25 mm in any deflection in 
precordial leads or at least 35 mm combining any V (1) , V (2) 
S-wave deflection with R-wave deflections from V (5) or V (6) . 
This had to be accompanied by depressed S-T segments or 
flattened to inverted T waves reflecting potentials from left 
precordial leads. 

A category of possible left ventricular hypertrophy was- 
designated when tracings exhibited characteristics similar to 
those above except in less striking degree or when not all were 
present. Increased R-wave potential without associated S-T and 
T-wave abnormality was included in this category. 

17. Intraventricular conduction defect with ORS interval m'ore 
than 0.11 second 

Complete right intraventricular heart block was diagnosed 
when QRS duration exceeded 0.11 second and an R-R' wave was 
noted in any one or more right precordial leads, with a delayed 
peak of R' wave (equal to 0.03 second or greater) after onset of 
QRS complex, accompanied by broad S waves in left precordial 

-19- 



leads and a corresponding broad S wave in Lead I, Complete left 
intraventricular heart block was designated when the QRS 
interval exceeded 0.11 second and tall slurred R waves were 
observed along with absent Q waves in any of the left precordial 
leads and a reciprocal deep S wave in the right precordial 
leads. The peak of the notched R' wave occurred at greater than 
0,06 second after the onset of the QRS complex in one or more 
left precordial leads. Complete indeterminate intraventricular 
heart block was designated when the QRS interval was prolonged 
beyond 0.11 second and the characteristic changes indicative of 
either right or left intraventricular heart block were absent, 
but the lengthened QRS interval was not obtained at the expense 
of a shortened P-R interval (as in the Wolff-Parkinson-White 
syndrome) . No hemiblock or bifascicular block designations were 
distinguished. 

18 . Definite Nonspecific T-wave or ST-secrment abnormality by 
electrocardiogram 

Nonspecific abnormality was designated in the absence of a 
prominent R wave when there was ST-segment depression (exceeding 
one millimeter below the base line) and/or primary T-wave 
inversion or flattening. This diagnosis was not made if a more 
specific explanation could be made for these changes (such as 
intraventricular block, myocardial infarction, or left 
ventricular hypertrophy) or if the changes occurred in those 
leads where such variation is acceptable. 



-20- 



CODING OF CATEGORICAL RISK FACTORS FOR FRAMINGHAM MONOGRAPH 3 4 

3 YEAR FOLLOWUP 



Glucose Intolerance: 



1= glucose intolerant 

0= no glucose intolerance 

Left Ventricular Hypertrophy: 
l=no 

2=borderline 
3=definite 

Hypertension ignoring antihypertensive treatment 

l=none 

2=borderline 
3=def inite 

Hypertension with antihypertensive treatment: 

l=none 

2=borderline (not treated) 

3=definite (not treated) 

4=treated 

In 'the logistic regressions treated persons are coded as 3, 
definite hypertensives. 

Diabetes: 

l=diabetes previously diagnosed 
O=nondiabetic 

Glucose in Urine: 

0=negative 

l=positive, trace or doubtful, light, medium, or dark 

Albuminim Urine: 

0=negative or trace 
l=positive 

Heart Enlargement by X-ray: 

l=none 

2=possible GCE or definite LVH without definite GCE 

3=definite GCE 

Nonspecific T-wave or ST-segment abnormality: 

O=none or doubtful 

l=definite on either T-wave or ST-segment 

-21- 



Intraventricular conduction defect: 

l=no IV Block, either complete or incomplete on left 

or right 
2=incomplete on left, right, or indeterminate and 
not complete on any 
• 3=complete on left or right or indeterminate 



-22- 



Sections of the Monograph Series 



Section 1. Introduction and general background 

Tavia Gordon and William B. Kannel 

Section 2. Follow-up to the eighth examination 
Tavia Gordon 

Section 3. Some characteristics of the Framingham cohort on 
the first 7 examinations by broad age groups 
Christine Cole, Esther Allen, Manning 
Feinleib 

Notes: Dewey Shurtleff, William P. Castelli, 

Lloyd E. Hawes, and Patricia M. McNamara 

Section 4. Some characteristics of the Framingham cohort on 
the first 7 examinations by 5-year age groups 
Dewey Shurtleff 

Section 5. Bivariate correlations among some 

characteristics of the Framingham cohort at Exam 
2 

Dewey Shurtleff 

Section 6. Smoothed average annual incidence rates by age 
at exam preceding event, and sex 
Manning Feinleib 

Section 7. Average two-year incidence rates by age at exam 
preceding event and sex, with total num'ber of 
events and total population at risk 
Manning Feinleib 

Section 8. Two-year incidence by exam interval by age at 
Exam 1 and sex 

Manning Feibleib 

Criteria: William B. Kannel, William P. 

Castelli, and Patricia M. McNamara 

Section 9. Population alive with specified events by sex, 
age and level of characteristic at exam 
Dewey Shurtleff 

Section 10. Incidence of Coronary Heart Disease by sex, age 
and level of characteristic at exam for 22 
characteristics 
Dewey Shurtleff 

Section 11. Incidence of Myocardial Infarction by sex, age 
and level of characteristic at exam for 22 
characteristics 
Dewey Shurtleff 



-23- 



Section 12. Incidence of Angina Pectoris Uncomplicated by 
sex, age and level of characteristic at exam for 
22 characteristics 
Dewey Shurtleff 

Section 13. Incidence of Sudden Death from Coronary Heart 
Disease by sex, age and level of characteristic 
at exam for 22 characteristics 
Dewey Shurtleff 

Section 14. Incidence of Non-Sudden Death from Coronary 
Heart Disease by sex, age and level of 
characteristic at exam for 22 characteristics 
Dewey Shurtleff 

Section 15. Incidence of Cerebrovascular Accident by sex, 
age and level of characteristic at exam for 22 
characteristics 
Dewey Shurtleff 

Section 16. Incidence of Brain. Infarction by sex, age and 
level of characteristic at exam for 22 
characteristics 

Dewey Shurtleff ' 

Section 17. Incidence of Intermittent Claudication by sex, 
age and level of characteristic at exam for 22 
characteristics 
Dewey Shurtleff 

Section 13. Incidence of Congestive Heart Failure by sex, 
age and level of characteristic at exam for 22 
characteristics 

Dewey Shurtleff . 

Section 19. Incidence of Death by sex, age and level of 
characteristic at exam for 22 characteristics 
Dewey Shurtleff 

Section 20. Incidence of Death from Coronary . Heart Disease 

by sex, age and level of characteristic at exam 
for 22 characteristics 

Dewey Shurtleff .. _ 

Section 21. Incidence of Death from Cardiovascular Disease 
by sex, age and level of characteristic at exam 
for 22 characteristics 
Dewey Shurtleff 

Section 22. Incidence of Death from Cause other than 
Cardiovascular Disease by sex, age and level of 
characteristic at exam for 22 characteristics 
Dewey Shurtleff 



-24- 



Section 23. Serum cholesterol, systolic blood pressure and 
Framingham relative weight as discriminators of 
cardio vascular disease 
' Tavia Gordon and Joel I. Verter 

Section 24. The Framingham Diet Study: Diet and the 
regulation of serum cholesterol 

Section 25. Survival following certain cardiovascular events 
Joyce Schiffman 

Section 26. Some characteristics related to the incidence of 
cardiovascular disease and death: Framingham 
. Study, 16-year follow-up 
Dewey Shurtleff 

Section 27. Coronary Heart Disease, Atherothrombotic Brain 
Infarction, Intermittent claudication--a 
multivariate analysis of some factors related to 
their incidence: Framingham Study, 16-year 
follow-up 

Tavia Gordon, Paul Sorlie, and William B. 

Kannel 

Section 28. The Framingham Study: The probability of 

developing certain cardiovascular diseases in 
eight years at specified values of some 
characteristics 
Daniel McGee 

Section 29. Means at each examination and inter-examination 
variation of specified characteristics: 
Framingham Study, Exam 1 to Exam 10 
Tavia Gordon and Dewey Shurtleff 

Section 30. Some characteristics related to the incidence of 
cardiovascular disease and death: Framingham 
Study, 18-year follow-up 
Dewey Shurtleff 

Section 31. The results of the Framingham Study applied to 
four other U.S. based epidemiologic studies of 
cardio vascular disease 

Daniel McGee and Tavia Gordon 

Section 32. Cardiovascular diseases and death following . 
myocardial infarction and angina pectoris: 
Framingham Study, 20-year follow-tip 
Paul Sorlie 

Section 33 Index to previous sections 1-32 

Constantine Gillespie and Paul Sorlie 



-25- 



References 

1. Fleiss, JL (1981).. Statistical Methods for Rates and 
Proportions New York: John Wiley and Sons, 237 - 255. 

2. Harrell, FE Jr (1S33). The Legist procedure, SUC-I: 
Supplemental Library & User's Guide. Cary, No. Carolina: 
SAS Institute Inc, 181-202. 

3. Truett J, Cornfield J, Kannel W (1967). A multivariate 
ajialysis of the risk of coronary heart disease in 
Framingham. J. Chron Pis 20: 511-24. 

4. Schlesselman JJ (1982). Case-control studies: Design, 
Conduct, Analysis New York: Oxford University Press, 
227-269. 

5. Greenland S, Schlesselman JJ, Criqui MA (1986). The fallacy 
of employing standardized regression coefficients and 
correlations as measures of effect. Am J. Epidemiology 
123: 203-208. 

6. Standardization of blood pressure readings, Am Heart J 18: 
95, July 1939. - 

7. Sperry (1938) Am J Clin Path and Tech. Supplement 2: 91. 

8. Abell LL, Levy BB, Brodie BB, Kendall FE (1952). J Biol 

Chem 195: 357-66. 

• •* 

•9. Nelson B (1944). J Biol Chem 153: 375. 

10. Somogyi M (1945)'. J Biol Chem 160: 61. 

11. Somogyi M (1945). J Biol Chem 160: 69 

12. Katz (1947). Electrocardiography. Philadelphia: Lee and 
Febiger, 31-44. 



-26- 



TABLE 1-1 DATE=020CTS5 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
BY AGE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAMi FRAMINGHAM STUDY 30-YEAR FOLLOWUP 

SEXi MALE 

EVENT: CORONARY HEART DISEASE 

RISK FACTOR; SYSTOLIC BLOOD PRESSURE, FIRST EXAMINER (MM HG) 

PERSONS AT RISKi PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



35-4<i AT EXAM 05-54 AT EXAM 

RISK PERSON I OF ANNUAL" PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
FACTOR EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



55-64 AT EXAM 65-74 AT EXAM 

PERSON I OF ANNUAL PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



74-1 19 
120-139 
140-159 
160-179 
180-300 

UNKNOHH 
TOTAL 



1223. 


7 


3 


2165 


20 


5 


541 


1 1 


7 


191 


4 


10 


52 














_ 


4472 


42 


5 



1769 


21 


6 


J417 


62 


9 


1732 


50 


14 


567 


26 


23 


2J9 


8 


1/ 








_ 


7724 


167 


II 



1440 


31 


1 1 


3166 


95 


15 


2090 


92 


22 


916 


54 


29 


437 


35 


40 








_ 


8049 


307 


19 



548 


10 


9 


1341 


47 


IS 


1 194 


63 


26 


552 


34 


31 


278 


26 


47 








_ 


391J 


180 


23 



RISK 
FACTOR 

74-119 
120-139 
140-159 
160-179 
180-300 

UNKNOHN 
TOTAL 



75-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



120 
345 
315 
153 
84 


1017 



5 

15 
20 
1 I 
10 

9 
6t 



21 
22 
32 
36 



SO 



85-94 AT EXAM 35-64 COMBINED 

PERSON I OF ANNUAL • OF AGE- 

EXAMS EVENTS RATE EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 

7 
15 
1 1 

4 

2 


39 



65-94 COMBINED 
f OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



59 


7 


7 


15 


1 1 


1 1 


177 


10 


1 1 


62 


18 


19 


153 


16 


16 


84 


28 


27 


84 


25 


23 


47 


33 


34 


43 


30 


22 


36 


49 


49 





. 







_ 




516 


13 


13 


244 


ZS 


25 



AOE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFTCIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


33-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 




O.OK 
0.017 
0.017 
0.01S 
O.OK 


0.008 
0.003 
0.002 
0.003 
0.006 


35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


o.ozo- 

0.017. 


0.002 
0.003 


35-64 
65-94 


flIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.017 
0.018 


0.002 
0.003 


35-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.014 
0.015 


0.002 
0.003 



LOOISTIC REGRESSIONS 
P-VALUE 



0,039 
0.001 
0.001 
0.001 
0.004 

d.ooi 

0.001 

0.001 
0.001 

0.001 
0.001 



STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 



275 
334 
331 
404 



0.354 



0.411 
0.399 



0.338 
0.401 



0.286 
0.341 



STD 
SE 

0. 133 
0.067 
0.050 
O.066 
0. 124 



O.tZi 
0.0S8 



0.037 
0.058 



0.041 
0.062 



SEX' FEMALE 

EVENT" CORONARY HEART DISEASE 

RISK FACTOR 1 SYSTOLIC BLOOD PRESSURE, FIRST EXAMINER (MM HO) 

PERSONS AT RISKi PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 
FACTOR 

74-119 
120-139 
140-159 
160-179 
180-300 

UNKNOMH 
TOTAL 



35-44 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



2493 

2244 

673 

156 

50 




56 16 









4 


1 


2 


1 








1 


10 





_ 


7 


1 



45-54 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



27 14 

3982 

2053 

768 

442 


9959 



11 

22 

23 

8 

8 


72 



55-64 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1979 


19 


5 


4056 


52 


6 


3025 


64 


1 1 


1560 


51 


16 


893 


40 


22 








_ 


11513 


226 


10 



65-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



647 
1747 
2013 
1155 

686 


6248 



10 

38 

. 59 

24 

43 


174 



8 

II 
15 
10 
31 



RISK 
FACTOR 

74-119 
120-139 
140-159 
160-179 
180-300 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



7S-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



133 


4 


15 


465 


17 


18 


626 


19 


15 


451 


28 


31 


276 


17 


J1 








. 


1951 


85 


22 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



8 








38 


3 


39 


29 


4 


69 


31 


1 


16 


17 


2 


59 








_ 


23 


10 


41 



35-64 COMBINED 
• OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



30 
78 
89 
59 
49 


305 



2 
4 
8 

12 
18 



3 
4 
7 
9 
15 



65-94 COMBINED 
• OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



14 
58 

82 
53 
62 


269 



9 
13 
15 
16 
32 



10 

13 
16 
15 
31 



M 



LOOISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VAIUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


35-44 
45-54 
55-.64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 




0.03S 
0.017 
0.01S 
0.013 
0.004 
0.004 


0.012 
0.004 
0.0O2 
0.003 
0.0O4 
0.013 


0.007 
0.001 
0.001 
0.001 
0.024 
0.784 


0.572 
0.385 
0.451 
0.324 
0.233 
0.089 


0.213 
0.007 
0.054 
0.070 
0.103 
0.326 


35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.022- 
0.012 


0.002 
0.002 


0.0O1 
0.001 


0.530 
0.302 


0.041 
0.057 


35-64 
65-94 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.018 
0.012 


0.002 
0.002 


O.OOl 
0.001 


0.418 
0.286 


0.045 
0.057 


35-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.015 
0.008 


0.002 
O.0O2 


0.001 
0.001 


0.348 
0. 199 


o.oso 

0.060 



-27 



TABLE 1-2 DATE=020CTJ5 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER tOOO PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
BY AGE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAM' FRAMIHGHAM STUDY JO-YEAR FOLLOWUP 

SEXi MALE 

EVENT: CORONARY HEART DISEASE 

RISK FACTOR: DIASTOLIC BLOOD PRESSURE, FIRST EXAMINER (MM HO 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



35-<»'* AT EXAM 
■ RISK PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
FACTOR EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



20-7'i 
75-a<i 

95-104 
105-160 

UNKNOMH 
TOTAL 



1012 


2' 


1 


160'* 


\<i 


<i 


1187 


1 1 


5 


i<99 


12 


12 


170 


J 


9 








„ 


4'*72 


42 


5 



i*5-5<i AT EXAM 55-64 AT EXAM 65-71 AT EXAM 

PERSON I OF ANNUAL PERSON t OF ANNUAL PERSON » OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1478 


23 


3 


2764 


46 


3 


2062 


49 


12 


100S 


30 


15 


410 


19 


23 








_ 


7724 


167 


n 



1847 


54 


15 


2845 


31 


14 


1964 


92 


23 


982 


49 


25 


411 


Jl 


38 








- 


8049 


307 


1« 



1225 


45 


18 


1323 


56 


21 


893 


3S 


21 


343 


30 


44 


129 


1 1 


43 








_ 


3913 


180 


23 



r 



T* 

=» 



RISK 

FACTOR 

< 20-74 

75-84 

85-94 

95-104 

105-160 

iUNKNOWN 
(TOTAL 



75-84 AT EXAM 85-94 AT EXAM 

PERSON I OF ANNUAL PERSON « OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

22 
12 

5 




59 



422 


20 


24 


331 


21 


32 


204 


13 


32 


44 


4 


45 


16 


3 


94 








» 


017 


61 


30 



35-64 COMBINED 
t OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



65-94 COMBINED 
t OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



79 


9 


9 


67 


20 


19 


.Kt 


10 


10 


77 


23 


2i 


152 


15 


15 


52 


24 


24 


91 


IS 


IS 


34 


44 


44 


53 


27 


26 


14 


48 


53 


■ 


. 







_ 




516 


13 


IS 


244 


25 


Z5 



iAGE AT 
EXAM 

35-44 

45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
I 85-94 



' 35-64 
65-94 



35-64 
65-94 



35-64 
65-94 



UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 



BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 



MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 



COEFFICIENT 

OF RISK FACTOR 

0.045 
0.026 
0.025 
0.024 
0.020 



0.028 . 
0.021 



0.027 
0.024 



0.024 
0.020 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 

P-VALUE 



SE 
COEFFICIENT 

0.012 
0.006 
0.004 
0.006 
0.011 



0.003 

O.OOS 



0.003 
0.005 



0.004 
0.005 



0.001 
0.001 
0.001 
0.001 
0.066 



0.001 
0.001 



0,001 
0.001 



0.001 
0.001 



STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 

0.512 
0.300 
0.304 
0.290 
0.239 



8.325 
0.258 



8.321 
0.296 



0.286 
0.248 



STD 
SE 

0. 133 
0.072 
0.053 
0.070 
0. 130 



0.041 
0.062 



0.040 
0,063 



0.043 
0.064 



SEX> FEMALE 

EVENT' CORONARY HEART DISEASE 

RISK FACTOR! DIASTOLIC BLOOD PRESSURE, FIRST EXAMINER (MM MO) 

PERSONS AT RISK! PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 
FACTOR 

20-74 
75-84 
85-94 
9 5-104 
105-160 

UNKNOMN 
TOTAL 



35-44 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



2164 

2030 

987 

324 

1 1 1 


56 16 



45-54 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



2639 
354 1 
236 1 

926 
492 



15 
16 
25 

7 
9 


72 



55-«4 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



2969 
3853 
2840 
1272 
579 


11513 



41 
61 
64 
33 
27 


226 



7 
8 

11 
13 
23 



6S-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON » OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1831 

2135 

1439 

600 

243 


6248 



50 
52 
43 
13 
16 


174 



14 
12 
15 
1 1 
33 



RISK 
FACTOR 

20-74 
75-84 
85-94 
95-104 
105-160 

UNKNOHN 
TOTAL 



75-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATTE 



724 


28 


19 


596 


29 


24 


443 


21 


24 


146 


5 


17 


42 


2 


24 








_ 


1951 


85 


22 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON » OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



53 


4 


3S 


43 


4 


47 


20 


2 


SO 


7 














- 








_ 


23 


10 


41 



35-64 COMBINED 
t OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



5S 

78 
90 
43 
36 


305 



4 
4 
7 
9 
15 



65-94 COMBINED 
» OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



82 
85 

66 
18 
18 


269 



16 
15 
■17 
12 
52 



16 
IS 
IS 
12 
30 



AGE AT 

EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 




0.037 
0.027 
0.030 
0.011 
-0.001 
0.005 


0.027 
0.008 
0.005 
0. 006 
0.009 
0.028 


35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.034 
0.005 


0.004 
0.005 


35-64 
65-94 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.030 
0.007 


0.004 
0.005 


35-64 
66-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.024 
, 003 


0.004 
0.005 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 
P-VALUE 



0.175 
0.001 
0.001 
0.084 
0.932 
0.869 

0.001 
0.33S 



001 
180 



001 
545 



STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 

0.412 
0.329 
0.37 
129 
-0.009 
0.055 

0.414 
0.059 

0.363 
0.0S2 

0.293 
0.037 



STB 
SE 

0.303 
0.101 
0.059 
0.074 
0.111 
0.335 



048 
06 1 



050 

06 I 



054 
06 1 



c 



- 28 



RISK 
FACTOR 

NO 

MUD 
DEFINITE 
TREATED 

UNKNOHN 
TOTAL 



TABLE 1-3A DATE=020CT85 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
BY AGE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAMi FRAMINGHAM STUDY 30-YEAR FOLLOWUP 

SEXi MALE 

EVENT: CORONARY HEART DISEASE 

RISK FACTOR! HYPERTENSION WITH ANTIHYPERTENSIVE TREATMENT 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



JS-'i'i AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



24 51 

1301 

500 

20 

a 

H472 



19 

I 1 

I 1 

1 


■42 



4 

1 1 
25 



<)5-51 AT EXAM 
("ERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



•4122 
2205 
1 139 

258 


7724 



59 
52 
42 
I"* 


167 



7 

12 
18 
27 



55-6'* AT EXAM 
PERSON < OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



3773 

2301 

1268 

707 


8049 



90 

1 iO 

68 

39 


307 



12 

2<t 
27 
28 



19 



65-71* AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1512 

1255 

552 

594 


3913 



3<i 
64 
40 
42 


180 



I 1 
25 
36 
35 



23 



RISK 
FACTOR 

NO 

MILD 
DEFINITE 
TREATED 

UNKNOHN 
TOTAL 



75-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RA^E 



57 
333 

125 
189 


1017 



14 • 
19 

10 
18 


61 



19 
29 

40 
48 



30 



I 85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

<« 
It 
3 

7 


39 



S5-«4 COMBINES 
« OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



65-94 COMBINED 
• OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



168 


8 


8 


48 


13 


13 


17 3 


15 


IS 


84 


26 


26 


121 


21 


20 


51 


33 


38 


54 


27 


27 


61 


39 


38 





. 







, 




516 


13 


13 


244 


25 


25 



lOOIsnC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VAIUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 




0.559 
0.528 
0.420 
0.57 1 
0.459 


0. 197 
0.095 
0.070 
0.097 
0. 166 


0.004 
0.001 
0.001 

o.oot 

0.006 


0.388 
0.406 
0.342 
0.467 
0.376 


0.137 
0.073 
0.057 
0.079 
0.136 


35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.534 
0.555 


0.054 
0.083 


0.001 
0.001 


0.415 
0.454 


0.042 
0.068 


35-64 
65-94 


BIVARIATE 
8IVARIATE 


0.451 
0.55J 


0.054 
0.083 


0.001 
0.001 


O.JSI 
0.45 J 


0.042 
0.068 


35-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.399 
0.494 


0.057 
0.085 


O.OOI 

0.001 


0.311 
0.405 


0.044 
0.070 



SEX> FEMALE 

EVENT! CORONARY HEART DISEASE 

RISK FACTORi HYPERTENSION WITH ANTIHYPERTENSIVE TREATMENT 

PERSONS AT RISKi PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 
FACTOR 

NO 

MILD 

DEFINITE 

TREATED 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



RISK 
FACTOR 

NO 

MILD 
DEFINITE 
TREATED 

UNKNOHN 
TOTAL 



35-44 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



4250 

1001 

316 

49 


56 16 



75-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



395 


12 


15 


585 


22 


19 


37 5 


25 


31 


596 


28 


23 








_ 


991 


85 


22 



45-54 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



5622 

2579 

1166 

592 


9959 



24 

25 
1 t 
12 


72 



2 
5 
5 

10 



8S-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



Jl 


2 


32 


28 


2 


36 


24 


1 


21 


40 


5 


63 








_ 


123 


10 


41 



5S-64 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



4863 
3290 
1835 
1525 


1I5I3 



45 
71 
62 
48 


226 



5 

11 
17 
16 



65-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



3S-64 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



72 

98 
75 
60 

9 
305 



2 
7 
It 
14 



3 

7 

to 

10 



1751 


30 


9 


1911 


43 


11 


1036 


29 


14 


1550 


72 


23 








. 


6248 


174 


14 



65-94 COMBINED 
t OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



44 
67 
53 
105 

a 

269 



10 
13 
IS 
24 



11 
13 
IS 
24 



LOOISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AOe AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VAlUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 




1.028 
0.567 
0.615 
0.450 
0.300 
0.215 


(1.454 
0. 141 
0.084 
0.102 
0.153 
0.415 


0.023 
0.001 
0.001 
0.001 
0.050 
0.609 


0.602 
0.435 
0.514 
0.370 
0.235 
0. 180 


0.266 
0. 108 
0.070 
0.084 
0. 120 
0.349 


35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.79S 
0.420 


0.070 
0.083 


0.001 
O.OOI 


0.631 
0.343 


0.055 
0.068 


35-64 
65-94 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.587 
0.395' 


0.072 
0.084 


O.OOI 
O.OOI 


0.466 
0.323 


0.057 
0.068 


35-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.504 
0.296 


0.075 
0.085 


o.ooi 

O.OOI 


0.400 
0.242 


0.060 
0.069 



29 - 



RISK 
FACTOR 



TAJLE t-5B DATE=020CT85 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
BY AGE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAMi FRAMIHGHAM STUDY JO-YEAR FOLLQHUP 

SEXi MALE 

EVENT' CORONARY HEART DISEASE 

RISK FACTOR' HYPERTENSION IGNORING TREATMENT 

PERSONS AT RISK' PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



35-<(4 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



AS-Sii AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



55-61* AT EXAM 
PERSON « OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



6 5-711 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



( 



NO 

HUD 

DEFINITE 

UHKNOUN 
TOTAL 



2653 19 "* 
1310 11 << 
509 12 12 




^472 




42 



4154 
2234 
12S6 


60 
5S 
49 


7 

13 
19 


3909 
2583 
1557 


96 
124 
87 


12 
24 
2S 


1631 
1499 
783 


40 
83 
57 


12 
28 
36 



7724 



167 


1 1 



S049 



307 


19 



3913 




180 


23 



RISK 
FACTOR 

HUD ^ 
DEFIHltE 

UNKNOMH 
TOTAL 



75-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON » OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



4)2 
418 
187 


1017 



18 
23 
20 


it 



22. 

28 
53 



30 



85-94 AT EXAM 

PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

21 

IS 
3 i 


39 



35-64 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



175 
193 
148 


516 



8 

16 
22 



8 

15 
21 



65-94 COMBINED 
t OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



58 

108 

78 


244 



14 
28 

40 



14 
28 

41 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 

35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 

35-44 
65-94 

35-64 
65-94 

55-64 
65-94 



UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 



BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 



MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 



COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 

0.569 
0.500 
0.434 
0.552. 
0.484 



0.517 
0.544 



0.458 
0.549 



0.39S 
0.476 



COEFFICIENT 

0.197 
0.096 
0.072 
0.099 
0. 176 



0.055 
0.086 



0.056 
0.086 



0.059 
0.089 



(•-VALUE 



0.004 

o.roi 

O.COl 

o.oor 

0.006 



0.001 

0,001 



0.001 

o.oot 



0.001 
0.001 



STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 

0.376 
0.334 
0.417 
0.356 



0.388 
0.408 



0.343 
0.4*2 



0.29S 
0.357 



STD 
SE 



136 
072 
056 
075 
129 



9.041 
0.064 



042 
06 5 



0.044 
0.067 



SEXi FEMALE 

EVENT' COROHARY HEART DISEASE 

RISK FACTORi HYPERTENSIOM IGNORING TREATMEMT 

PERSONS AT RISK" PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



35-44 AT EXAM 



RISK 
FACTOR 


PERSON 
EXAMS 


• OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


NO 4272 
MUD 1016 
DEFINITE 328 


3 
2 1 
2 5 


UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 


8 
5616 


a 

7 1 


RISK 
FACTOR 


75-8< 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


AT EXAM 
i OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


NO 507 
HUD 827 
DEFINITE 617 


15 15. 
33 20 
37 30 


UNKNOHN 
TOTAL 



19SI 



85 22 


AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIEHT 
Of RISK FACTO 


35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-S4 
85-94 




t.08O 
0.510 
0.546 
0.376 
0.380 
0.114 


35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.729 
0.385 


35-64 
65-94 


SIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.543 
0.366 


35-44 
45-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0,440 
0.249 



45-54 AT EXAM 55-44 AT EXAM 65-74 AT EXAM 

PERSON • OF ANNUAL PERSON I OF ANNUAL PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



5804 
2743 
1392 


9959 



27 2 

28 5 
17 6 



72 4 



5245 56 

3840 90 

240S SO 



5 
12 

17 




11513 




226 



2035 
2549 
1664 


4248 



37 9 

73 14 

44 19 

. 

174 14 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



35-64 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



37 
45 
41 


123 



2 27 

5 56 

5 57 



84 

120 

99 


305 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



SE 
COCFFICIEMT 

a.45S 
0. 146 
0.084 
O.tOI 
0.152 
0.417 

0.070 
0.0<2 

0.073 
0.083 

0.177 
0.0<4 



p-v*iue 



0.018 
0.001 
0.001 
0.001 
0.0)2 
0,780 

0.001 
0.001 

0.001 
0.001 

0.001 
0.001 



45-94 COMBINED 
• OF AGE- 

EVEHTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



3 
8 

12 



3 
7 
IS 



54 
111 
104 


269 



STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 

0.617 
0.370 
0.440 
0.2S9 
0.288 
0.093 

0.539 
0.295 

0.402 
0.281 

0.326 
0.206 



10 
16 
22 



STD 
SE 

0.261 

0. 104 
0.065 
0,078 
0. Its 
0.333 



052 
063 



054 
063 



0.057 
0.06S 



11 
14 
22 



1« 



c 



- 30 



TABLE 1-4 DATE=020CT85 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
BY AGE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAMi FRAMINGHAM STUDY 30-YEAR FOLLQWUP 

SEX: MALE 

EVENT: CORONARY HEART DISEASE 

RISK FACTOR: SERUM CHOLESTEROL 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 
FACTOR 

54-204 
205-234 
2J5-264 
265-294 
295-1124 

UNKNOHN 
TOTAL 



35-44 AT EXAM 
PERSON » OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1253 
1247 
372 
475 
291 

334 
4472 



4 
7 
1 t 
9 
7 

4 
42 



2 
3 
6 
9 
12 

6 

5 



45-54 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1767 
2306 
1745 
1001 
557 

34« 
7724 



20 
49 
38 
23 
31 

6 
167 



6 
1 1 
1 1 
1 I 
23 



55-64 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



2255 

2405 

1889 

918 

454 

128 
3049 



57 
94 
30 
41 
28 

7 
307 



13 
20 
21 
22 
31 

27 
19 



65-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON J OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1234 

1171 

373 

428 

191 

16 
3913 



51 
52 
4 1 
21 
14 



21 
22 
23 
25 
37 

31 
23 



RISK 
FACTOR 

34-204 
205-234 
235-264 
265-294 
295-1124 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



75-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON f OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATt 



390 

332 

177 

96 

22 


1017 



21 

22 

13 

3 

2 



27 
33 
37 
16 
45 



30 



35-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

17 
11 

5 

6 




39 



35-64 COMBINED 
t OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



65-94 COMBINED 
» OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



31 


8 


3 


73 


22 


22 


150 


13 


13 


75 


25 


24 


129 


14 


14 


55 


26 


26 


73 


15 


15 


24 


23 


23 


«6 


25 


26 


16 


33 


38 


17 


10 


15 


1 


31 


24 


516 


13 


. 13 


244 


25 


25 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 




0.011 
0.009 
0.005 
0.003 
0.003 


0.003 
0.002 
0.001 
0.002 
0.003 


0.001 
0.001 
0.001 
0. 126 
0.451 


0.502 
0.383 
0.220 
0.115 
0.098 


0.113 
0.064 
0.056 
0.075 
0. 130 


35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.007 . 
0.003 


0.001 
0.002 


0.001 
0. 1 17 


0.298 
0. toz 


0.039 
0.065 


35-64 
65-94 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.008 
0.003 


0.001 
0.002 


0.001 
0.064 


0.322 
0.121 


0.040 
0.065 


33-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.007 
0.003 


0.001 
0.002 


0.001 
0.063 


0.290 
0. 119 


0.041 
0.065 



SEXi FEMALE 

EVENT" CORONARY HEART DISEASE 

RISK FACTORi SERUM CHOLESTEROL 

PERSONS AT RISK' PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



33-44 AT EXAM 



RISK 
FACTOR 


PERSON 
EXAMS 


1 OF 
EVENTS 


ANNUAL 

RATE 


84-204 
205-234 
235-264 
265-294 
295-1124 


2350 

1417 

806 

372 

171 



2 
1 

2 
2 




UNKNOWN 
TOTAI, 


500 
56 16 




7 



1- 


RISK 
FACTOR 


75- 
PERSOM 
EXAMS 


84 AT EXAM 

• OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATt 


84-204 
205-234 
235-264 
265-294 
295-1124 


361 
486 
542 
350 
205 


12 
23 
29 

15 
6 


17 
24 
27 
21 
IS 


UNKNOHN 
TOTAL 


7 
1951 



35 



22 



43-S4 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



2094 
2558 
2259 
1473 
1 10 1 

474 
9959 



10 
18 
11 
12 
13 

3 

72 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



46 

28 

35 

9 

5 




123 



3 


33 


3 


54 


2 


29 


2 


1 1 1 











. 





41 



55-64 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1625 


22 


7 


2615 


42 


8 


2938 


43 


7 


2240 


55 


12 


1866 


58 


16 


229 


6 


13 


11513 


226 


10 



6S-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



32 
62 
55 

69 

73 

14 
305 



3 
5 
5 
3 

12 

6 
i 



7 
10 



789 


14 


9 


1401 


30 


1 1 


1703 


44 


13 


1237 


37 


14 


1031 


■48 


23 


57 


1 


14 


6243 


174 


14 



35-64 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



6S-94 COMilHED 
• OF AGE- 

. EVENTS CRUSE ADJUSTED 



29 
56 

75 
54 
54- 

1 
269 



12 
' 15 
16 
16 
22 

11 
16 



11 
15 
17 
17 
21 

11 . 
16 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


35-44 
45-54 

55-64 
6 5-74 
75-84 
35-94 




0.023 
0.005 
0.007 
0.007 
-0.000 
0.002 


0.005 
0.0O2 
0.001 
0.002 
0.003 
0.007 


0.001 
0.0 I 1 
0.001 
0.001 
0.949 
0.745 


0.908 
0.213 
0.321 
0.320 
-0.007 
0. 107 


0. ISO 
0.083 
0.062 
0.073 
0.111 
0.327 


35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.009. 
0.004 


0.001 
0.001 


0.001 
0.003 


0.423 
0.179 


0.050 
0.060 


35-64 
65-94 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.007 
0.005 


0.OO1 
0.001 


0.001 
0.001 


0.307 

0.213 


0.049 
0.06 1 


35-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.006 
0.005 


0.001 
0.001 


0.001 
0.001 


0.263 
0.222 


0.049 
0.062 



- 31 



RISK 
FACTOR 

25-42 
"»3-<i'* 
<i5-4< 
47-13 
49-70 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



TABLE 1-5 DATE=020CT85 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
BY AGE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAM^ FRAMIHGHAM STUDY 50-YEAR FOLLQWUP 

SEXi MALE 

EVENT i CORONARY HEART DISEASE 

RISK FACTOR" HEMATOCRIT 

PERSONS AT RISK! PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



35-44 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



623 
544 
9<3 
775 
1175 

370 
4472 



7 



3 

• 4 

23 

5 
42 



6 

2 
3 

to 

7 
5 



45-54 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



942 


11 


6 


967 


20 


10 


1854 


39 


1 1 


1510 


31 


10 


2066 


5S 


14 


385 


8 


10 


7724 


167 


1 1 



55-64 AT EXAM 65-74 AT EXAM 

PERSON » OF ANNUAL PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



( 



1018 


40 


20 


985 


36 


18 


1953 


70 


18 


1599 


55 


17 


2338 


99 


21 


156 


7 


22 


8049 


307 


19 



450 


17 


19 


493 


21 


21 


963 


43 


22 


86 1 


38 


22 


1127 


60 


27 


19 


1 


26 


391J 


180 


2S 






RISK 
FACTOR 

25-42 
43-44 
45-46 
47-48 
49-70 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



75-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANKUAl 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



214 


15 


35 


1 19 


10 


42 


240 


14 


29 


197 


10 


25 


247 


12 


24 








- 


017 


61 


30 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

16 
5 

7 
7 
4 


39 



J5-64 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



65-94 COMBINED 
« OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



58 


11 


12 


33 


24 


22 


56 


11 


It 


31 


25 


25 


112 


12 


12 


5« 


24 


24 


90 


12 


It 


48 


23 


22 


ISO 


16 


16 


73 


26 


27 


20 


1 1 


14 


1 


26 


20 


516 


13 


13 


244 


25 


25 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 




COEFFICIENT 


SE 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 


STD 


EXAM 




OF RISK FACTOR 


COEFFICIENT 




COEFFICIENT 


SE 


35-44 




0.139 


0.045 


0.002 


0.510 


0. 166 


45-54 




0.055 


0.022 


0.013 


0. 198 


0, 080 


55-64 




0.O2O 


0.016 


0.210 


0.074 


0.059 


65-74 




0.038 


0.021 


0.067 


0. 142 


0.077 


75-«4 




-0.023 


0.031 


0.456 


-0.097 


131 


85-94 














35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 


0.04O- 


0.012 


0.001 


0.149 


0.046 


UNIVARIATE 


0.017. 


0.017 


0.332 


0.064 


0.066 


33-64 


BIVARIATE 


0.0S9 


0.012 


0.002 


0.142 


0.046 


65-94 


BIVARIATE 


0.02 J 


0.017 


0.176 


0.090 


0.067 


J5-64 


MULTIVARIATE 


d.ots 


O.OtJ 


0.229 


0.056 


0.046 


65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 


0.014 


0.018 


0.42 J 


O.OSS 


0.068 



SEX" FEMALE 

EVENT i CORONARY HEART DISEASE 

RISK FACTOR! HEMATOCRIT 

PERSONS AT RISK< PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 
FACTOR 

21-59 
40-41 
42-43 
44-45 
46-65 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



35-44 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1697 

967 
1043 
856 
487 

566 
5616 



45-54 AT EXAM 55-64 AT EXAM 65-74 AT EXAM 

PERSON • OF ANNUA! PERSON * OF ANNUAL PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1843 
1741 
1955 
2194 
1681 

54 5 
9959 



8 

11 
13 
16 
16 

8 
72 



1553 


27 


9 


206 1 


56 


9 


226 


52 


7 


2847 


57 


10 


2521 


67 


15 


271 


7 


13 


11513 


226 


10 



646 


20 


15 


1069 


21 


to 


1256 


30 


12 


1609 


50 


16 


1626 


52 


16 


42 


1 ■ 


12 


6248 


174 


14 



RISK 
FACTOR 

21-39 

40-41 
42-43 
44-45 
46-65 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



75-84 AT EXAM 85-94 AT EXAM 35-64 COMBINED 

PERSON I OF ANNUAL .PERSON • OF ANNUAL I OF AGE- 

EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



297 


14 


24 


37 S 


20 


27 


333 


8 


11 


486 


20 


21 


456 


23 


26 


6 








1931 


83 


22 



24 


3 


63 


51 


2 


32 


19 




79 


26 




19 


23 




22 


6 




. 


123 


10 


41 



38 
47 
47 
75 
83 

15 
303 



65-94 COMBINED 
t OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



37 
43 
41 

71 
76 

1 
269 



19 

15 

13., 

17 

18 

10 
16 



18 
14 
13 
17 
IS 

9 
16 



LOOISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 

,EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 

COEFFICIENT 


p-v*Lue 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


35-44 
,45-54 

a5-64 
25-74 
75-84 
S5-94 




-0.054 

0.075 

0.051 

0,039 

-0.005 

-0. 116 


0. 101 
0.036 
0.020 
0.022 
0.028 
0.086 


0.592 
0.037 
0.009 
0.080 
0.852 
0.178 


-i.I95 

0.268 

0.178 

0.137 

-0.021 

-0.461 


0.364 
0. 128 
0.069 
0.078 
0.111 
0.342 


35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.084. 
0.011 


0.017 
0.017 


0.001 
0.524 


0.301 
0.040 


0.060 
0.062 


35-64 
65-94 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.049 
0.016 


0.017 
0.017 


0.004 
0.567 


a. 176 
0.056 


0.062 
0.062 


35-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.021 
0.012 


0.017 
0.017 


0.218 
0.501 


0.07S 
0.042 


0.06 1 
0.062 



c 



- 32 



TABLE t-< DATE=020CT85 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
BY AGE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAMi FRAMIHGHAM STUDY JO-YEAR FOLLOWUP 

SEX: MALE 

EVENT; CORONARY HEART DISEASE 

RISK FACTOR: BLOOD GLUCOSE (MG/DL) 

PERSONS AT RISK.: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 
FACTOR 

29-69 
70-89 
90-109 
1 10- 129 
130-52t 

UNKNOHN 
TOTAL 



35-<i'i AT EXAM 
PERSON » OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



992 


9 


5 


2501 


2'i 


5 


626 


5 


<i 


105 


I 


5 


18 








200 


3 


s 


*'*72 


*2 


5 



'i5-5<i AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1<i90 

i»172 

1348 

305 

193 

216 
772't 



33 
71 
35 
12 
10 

6 
167 



9 
13 
20 
26 

14 
11 



55-64 AT EXAM 
PERSON » OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1087 


39 


18 


4056 


158 


19 


1866 


71 


19 


537 


20 


19 


408 


16 


20 


95 


3 


16 


8049 


307 


19 



65-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



421 


1 1 


13 


1761 


76 


22 


1046 


50 


24 


335 


19 


23 


334 


23 


34 


16 


1 


31 


39 13 


180 


23 



RISK 
FACTOR 

29-69 
70-89 
90-109 
110-129 
130-524 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



75-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON » OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



62 


4 


32 


377 


26 


34 


323 


19 


29 


125 


5 


20 


125 


7 


28 








_ 


1017 


61 


30 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



11 
14 




39 



35-64 COMBINED 
• OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



65-94 COMBINED 
• OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



81 


1 1 


12 


15 


15 


17 


253 


12 


12 


102 


24 


24 


1 11 


14 


13 


70 


25 


25 


33 


17 


16 


24 


26 


26 


26 


20 


18 


32 


34 


33 


12 


12 


13 


1 


31 


24 


516 


13 


13 


244 


25 


25 



lOCISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
S£ 


35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 




-0.007 
0.006 
0.000 
0.005 
0.002 


0.011 
0.002 
Q.002 
O.OOZ 
0.004 


0.536 
0.005 
0.917 
0.001 
0.660 


-0.122 
0. 144 
0.006 
0. 186 
0.055 


0. 197 
0.052 
0.058 
0.054 
0. 124 


35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.004 . 
0.005. 


0.001 

o<«oi 


0.002 
0.001 


o.tos 

0.17J 


0.034 
0.049 


35-6^ 
65-94 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.002 
0.005 


0.002 
0.001 


0.259 

0.001 


0.043 
0. 166 


0.038 
0.050 


35-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.001 

0.004 


O.OOZ 
0.002 


0.341 
0.005 


0.036 
0. 144 


0.038 
0.051 



SEXi FEMALE 

EVENT' CORONARY HEART DISEASE 

RISK FACTOR' BLOOD GLUCOSE (MO/OL) 

PERSONS AT RISK' PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



IRISK 
FACTOR 

29-69 
70-89 
90-109 
110-129 
130-524 

UNKNOMH 
TOTAL 



35-44 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1066 

3412 

672 

96 

39 



331 

56 16 



2 1 

4 1 

1 1 







7 1 



45-54 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1797 

5744 

1625 

301 

159 

333 
9959 



8 
39 
6 
3 
9 

7 
72 



2 
3 
2 

5 
28 

11 
4 



55-64 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1369 


32 


12 


6098 


98 


8 


27 12 


47 


9 


730 


21 


14 


438 


21 


24 



65-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



521 

3102 

1732 

501 

360 

32 
6248 



16 
77 
50 
10 
20 

1 
174 



15 
12 
14 
10 
28 

16 
14 



RISK 
FACTOR 

29-69 
70-89 
90-109 
110-129 
130-524 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



75-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON « OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RAfE 



105 
823 
640 
219 

t«3 

1 
1951 



7 
28 
21 
14 
IS 


85 



33 

17 
16 
32 
46 


22 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



3 








44 


3 


34 


SI 


4 


39 


13 


I 


3S 


tz 


z 


83 








. 


1ZS 


10 


4t 



35-64 COMBINED 
t OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



42 
141 
54 
24 
30 

14 
305 



5 

5 
5 

t1 

24 

8 

6 



6 
5 
5 
8 

20 

13 
6 



65-94 COMBINED 
« OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



23 
108 
75 
23 
37 

1 
269 



18 
14 
15 
17 
3S 

15 
16 



19 
13 
15 
16 
33 

12 
16 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUe 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 

SE 


35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 




-O.016 
0.015 
0.008 
0.006 
0.008 
0.002 


0.033 
0.002 
0.002 
0.002 
0.002 
0.008 


0.635 
0.001 
0.001 
0.001 
0.001 
0.812 


-0.237 

0.303 
0.209 
0. ISO 
0.273 
0.071 


0.499 
0.047 
0.040 
0.053 
0.067 
0.297 


35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.012 . 
0.007 


0.001 
0.001 


0.001 
0.001 


0.259 
0.222 


0.027 
0.039 


35-64 
65-94 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.009 
0.007 


0.001 
0.001 


0.001 
0.001 


0.206 
0.209 


0.029 
0.040 


35-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.008 
0.006 


0.00 1 
0.001 


0.001 
0.001 


0. 169 
0. 190 


0.030 
0.04 1 



- 3i 



TABLE 1-7 0ATE=080CT8S 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
BY AGE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAM> FRAMINGHAM STUDY 30-TEAR FOLLOWUP 

SEXi MALE 

EVENT' CORONARY HEART DISEASE 

RISK FACTOR: DIABETES MELLITUS 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 
FACTOR 



NO 
YES 



UNKNOWN 

TOTAL 



35- 
RSON 
AMS 


44 AT EXAM 

« OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


45- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


54 AT EXAM 

t OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


55- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


64 AT EXAM 

t OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


65- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


74 AT EXAM 

f OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


4<i24 

48 


42 




5 

a 


7486 
2J3 


157 
10 


10 
21 


7549 
500 


277 
30 


18 

30 


3504 
409 


151 
29 


22 

35 



4472 



42 


5 



7724 



167 


11 



8049 



307 


19 



3913 



180 


25 



( 



RISK 

FACTOR 



NO 
YES 



UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



AGE AT 
EXAM 

35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 

55-64 
65-94 

55-64 
65-94 

55-64 
65-94 



75-84 AT EXAM 85-94 AT EXAM 

PERSON t OF ANNUAL PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



900 
117 




1017 



55-64 COMBINED 
• OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



55 

6 




61 



SI 
26 



50 



COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 



0.717 

0.516 

0.527 

-0.186 



UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 



BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 



MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 



0.760 
0.391 



0.494 
0.376 • 



0.44t 
0.349 



34 

5 


476 
.40 



59 



51< 


LOGISTIC 


REGRESSIONS 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


0.535 
0. 198 
0.210 
0.442 


0.03t 
0.009 
0.012 
0.674 


0.169 
0. 187 


0.001 
0.036 


0. 171 
0.1*7 


0.004 
0.044 


0.175 
0. 190 


0.012 
0.067 



65-94 COMBINED 
I OF ACE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



12 
25 



13 



12 

20 



208 
56 




244 



STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 



0. 124 
0.125 
0. 161 

-0.059 



0. 147 
0. 121 



0.095 
0. I 16 



0.035 
Q. 108 



25 
54 



25 



STD 
SE 



0.058 
0.048 
0.1364 
0. 141 



0.033 
0.058 



fl.055 
0.058 



0.054 
0.059 



24 

34 



SEX" FEMALE 

EVENT I CORONARY HEART DISEASE 

RISK FACTDRi DIABETES MELLITUS 

PERSONS AT RISK' PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 
FACTOR 


35-44 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


AT EXAM 
• OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


45- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


•54 AT EXAM 

• OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


35- 

PERSOH 
EXAMS 


64 AT EXAM 1 65- 
t OF ANNUAL PERSON 
EVENTS RATE EXAMS 


74 


AT EXAM 
1 OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


NO 
YES 


S575 
43 


6 1 
1 12 


9760 
199 


64 
8 


3 
20 


10983 
528 


205 
25 


9 
22 


3780 
468 




148 

26 


13 
28 




UHKNOMN 

TOTAL 



56 16 




7 t 



9959 



72 


4 



IISIJ 



226 


10 



6248 





174 


14 




RISK 
FACTOR 


75-8< 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


AT EXAM 
« OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


85- 

PERSON 
EXAMS 


■94 AT EXAM 

• OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


35- 
f OF 

EVENTS 


64 COMBINED 

AGE- 
CRUDE ADJUSTED 


65- 
1 OF 

EVENTS 


?4'C0MBINED 

AGE- 
CRUDE ADJUSTED 


NO 
YES 


1758 
215 


67 19" 
IS 42 


106 
17 


8 

2 


38 
59 


275 
52 


5 

21 


5 

19 


223 
46 




15 
33 




15 
52 


UNKNOMN 
TOTAL 



19SI 



85 22 



125 



10 


41 



505 


6 


6 


- 
269 




16 




16 










LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 
















AGE AT 

EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 




P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 




STD 
SE 






53-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 




5.095 
1.848 
0.885 
0.806 
0.854 
0.491 




1.091 
0.582 
0.225 

0.218 
0.276 
0.858 




0.005 
0.001 
0.001 
0.001 
0.003 
0.558 




0.270 
0.259 
0.185 
0.212 
0.260 
0. 170 












095 
055 
047 

057 
086 
290 






35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


1.420 
0.851 




0. 191 
0. 167 




0.001 
0.001 




0.256 
0.236 








052 
046 






55-64 
65-94 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


1.058 
0.803 . 




0. 195 
0. 168 




0.001 
0.001 




0. 176 
0.223 









052 
047 






35-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.824 • 
0.668 




0. 198 
0.173 




0.001 
0.001 




0.137 
0. 185 








053 
048 







- 34 



TABLE 1-8 DAtE=0«OCTa3 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
BY AGE AND LEVEL OF RISIC FACTOR AT EXAM' FRAMINGHAM STUDY JO-YEAR FOLLOWUP 

SEXi MALE 

EVENT: CORONARY HEART DISEASE 

RISIC FACTOR: GLUCOSE IN URINE, DEFINITE OR TRACE 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 
FACTOR 



NO 
YES 



PERSON 
EXAMS 



:4380 
60 



J5-<*!4 AT EXAM 



EVENTS RATE 



42 





PERSON 
EXAMS 



7535 
163 



<i5-5<i AT EXAM 



I OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 



153 
9 



10 
27 



PERSON 
EXAMS 



7815 
210 



55-64 AT EXAM 



t OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 



290 
16 



19 
38 



65-7H AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



3767 
140 



22 
64 



UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



32 • 
4472 




42 



21 
7724 




167 




1 I 



24 
S049 



1 
307 



21 
19 



6 
3913 




180 




23 



RISK 
FACTOR 



NO 
YES 



UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



75-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



986 

28 



J 
1017 



57 
4 




61 



29 

71 




30 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

38 
1 




39 



35-64 COMBINED 
f OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



65-94 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



490 
25 


12 
29 


12 

25 


221 
23 


23 
68 


23 
69 


t 
5I« 


« 
13 


3 
1J 



244 



25 



25 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 




0.972 
0.761 
1. 189 
0.999 


0.352 
0.267 

0.265 
0.557 


0.006 
0.004 
0.001 
0.073 


0.142 
0.121 
0.221 
0. 164 


0.051 
0.043 
0.049 
0.091 


35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.866 
1.181 


0.211 
0.-235 


0.001 
0.001 


0. 126 
0.214 


0.031 
0.043 


35-64 
65-94 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.750 
1.204 • 


0.212 
0.235 


0.001 
0.001 


0. 109 
0.218 


0.031 
0.043 


35-64- 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.633 ■ 
1.098 


0.224 
0.242 


a.oos 

0.001 


0.092 
0.199 


0.033 
0.044 



SEX" FEMALE 

EVENT: CORONARY HEART DISEASE 

RISK FACTOR: GLUCOSE IN URINE, DEFINITE OR TRACE 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 
FACTOR 



NO 
YES 



35-44 AT EXAM 
PERSON i OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



5537 
41 



45-54 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



984 1 
94 



68 
3 



3 

16 



55-64 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



11346 
144 



218 
8 



10 
28 



65-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



6131 
107 



165 
9 



13 
42 



UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



33 
5616 



24 
9959 



1 
72 



21 



23 
11513 




226 




10 



10 
6243 




174 




14 



RISK 
FACTOR 



NO 
YES 



75-34 AT EXAM 
PERSON « OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1919 
23 



80 
5 



21 
109 



35-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



120 
3 



38 
167 



35-64 COMBINED 
• OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



292 
12 



5 

22 



6 
20 



65-94 COMBINED 
t OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



254 
15 



16 
56 



15 
60 



UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



9 
1951 




35 




22 




123 



S 
10 



1 

30S 




269 




16 




16 



AGE AT 
EXAM 

35-44 

45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 

35-64 
65-94 

35-64 
65-94 

35-64 
65-94 



UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 



BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 



MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 



COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 

COEFFICIENT 


3.137 
1.556 
1. 100 
1.200 
1.854 
1.819 


1.092 
0.599 
0.370 
0.357 
0.518 
1.273 


1.403 
1.377 


0.301 
0.231 


1.290 
1.401 . 


0.304 
0.282 


0.973- 
1. 190 


0.313 
0.294 



LOOISTIC REGRESSIONS 
P-VALUe 



0.004 
0.009 
0.003 
0.001 
0.001 
0. 153 



.001 
.001 



0.001 
0.001 



0.002 
0.001 



STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 

0.263 
0. 151 
0. 122 
0. 156 
0.201 
0.232 



142 

173 



0. 130 
0. 176 



0.093 
0. 149 



STO 
SE 

0.093 
0.053 
0.041 
0.046 
0.056 
0. 197 



030 
035 



031 
035 



0.032 
0.037 



35 



TABLE 1-9 DATE=01MAR86 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
BY AGE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAMi FRAMINGHAM STUDY 30-YEAR FOLLOHUP 

SEXi MALE 

EVENT' CORONARY HEART DISEASE 

RISK FACTOR' GLUCOSE INTOLERANCE 

PERSONS AT RISK' PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 
FACTOR 



NO 
YES 



35-<<4 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



4335 
137 



"SI 
1 



"iS-St AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



7221 
503 



1<(<i 
23 



10 
23 



55-6"* AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



71'*5 
90'i 



26<i 
■43 



IS 
2'4 



65-7<4 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 

EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



322S 
685 



135 
<>5 



21 
33 



( 



UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 




<4'i72 




<i2 




772<4 




167 




80'49 




307 




5913 



II 
ISO 



RISK 
FACTOR 



NO 
YES 



UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



75-8<4 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



802 
21S 




1017 



51 

10 




61 



32 
23 



30 



85-9"* AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

27 
12 




39 



35-64 COMBINED 
• OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



65-94 COMBINED 
» OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



449 
C7 


12 
Z2 


12 
19 


187 
57 


23 

31 


23 
31 



5t« 


IS 


13 



244 


25 


25 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


35-44 
45-54 

55-64 
65-74 
75-84 




-0.261 
0.857 
0.264 
0.477 

-0.331 


1 .016 
0.229 
0.168 
0.178 
0.355 


0.797 
0.001 
0.117 
0.007 
0.351 


-0.045 
0.211 
0.083 

0.181 
-0.135 


0.175 
0.057 
0.053 
0.067 
0.145 


85-94 














35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.612 
0.322 


■ . 1 34 
0.156 


0.001 
0.039 


0.162 
0.125 


0.035 
0.060 


35-64 
65-94 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.390 
0.294 


0.135 
0.156 


0.004 
0.060 


0.104 
0.114 


0.036 
0.061 


35-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.335 
0.234 


0.139 
0.15S 


0.016 
0.109 


0.089 
0.098 


0.037 
0.061 



SEX' FEMALE 

EVENT' .CORONARY HEART DISEASE 

RISK FACTOR' GLUCOSE INTOLERANCE 

PERSONS AT RISK' PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



35-44 AT EXAM 



65-74 AT EXAM 



RISK 
FACTOR 


PERSON 
EXAMS 


« OF 

EVENTS 


ANNUAL 
RATE 


PERSON 
EXAMS 


• OF 
EVENTS 


ANNUAL 
RATE 


PERSON 
EXA»1S 


• OF 
EVENTS 


ANNUAL 
RATE 


PERSON 
EXAMS 


• OF 
EVENTS 


ANNUAL 
RATE 


NO 
YES 


5522 
94 


6 
1 


1 

s 


9588 
371 


62 

10 


3 
13 


10503 
1010 


190 
36 


9 

18 


5398 
850 


138 
36 


13 
21 


UNKNOHH 
TOTAL 



5616 




7 


1 



9959 




72 


4 



11513 



226 


10 



6248 



174 


14 


RISK 
FACTOR 


75- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


84 AT FXAM 

1 OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


85- 

PERSOH 
EXAMS 


94 AT EXAM 

• OF AKNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


35- 
» OF 
EVENTS 


'64 COMBINED 

AGE- 
CRUDE ADJUSTED 


65- 
1 OF 
1 EVENTS 


-94 COMBINED 

AGE- 
CRUDE AOJUS' 


NO 
YES 


1581 
370 


57 
2t 


18 
38 


100 
23 


6 
4 


30 
87 


258 
47 


5 

16 


5 

14 


201 
68 


14 
27 


14 
26 


UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



1951 



85 


22 



123 



10 


41 



30S 


6 


6 



269 


16 


16. 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



ACE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 




2.291 
1 .448 
0.696 
0.522 
0.783 
1.193 


1.08S 
0.345 
0.185 
0.191 
0.238 
0.693 


0.035 
0.001 
0.001 
0.006 
0.001 
0.085 


0.294 

0.274 
0.197 
0.179 
0.307 
0.467 


0.139 
0.065 
0.052 
0.065 
0.093 
0.271 


35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


1 .174 
0.683 


0. 161 
0.144 


0.001 
0.001 


0.266 
0.244 


0.037 
0.051 


35-64 
65-94 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.809 
0.640 


0.163 
0.145 


0.001 
0.001 


0.184 
0.228 


0.037 
0.052 


35-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.713 
0.570 


0.166 
0.148 


0.001 
0.001 


0.162 
0.203 


0.038 
0.053 



c 



- 36 



TABLE 1-10 DATE=020CTa5 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
BY AGE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAMi FRAMINGHAM STUDY iO-YEAR FOLLOWUP 

SEXi MALE 

EVENT i CORONARY HEART DISEASE 

RISK FACTOR: METROPOLITAN RELATIVE WEIGHT (PERCENT) 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 
FACTOR 

5<i-10'i 
105-1 l*! 
I 15-12<i 
125-131 
135-272 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



RISK 
FACTOR 

5'>-10<» 

105-114 

115-124 

125-134 

! 135-272 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



35-44 AT EXAM 
PERSON « OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



723 


2 


1 


965 


5 


4 


1122 


3 


4 


915 


12 


7 


747 


12 


S 


• 





. 


4472 


42 


5 



75-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON » OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATt 



224 


IS 


33 


252 


15 


30 


296 


12 


20 


155 


11 


35 


90 


8 


44 








. 


1017 


61 


30 



45-54 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1131 


1 1 


5 


1540 


34 


1 1 


2037 


43 


1 1 


1645 


40 


12 


1370 


39 


14 


1 








7724 


167 


11 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

18 

9 
12 






39 



55-64 AT EXAM 65-74 AT EXAM 

PERSON f OF ANNUAL PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1155 
1655 
2175 
1674 
1389 

1 



43 

50 
77 
64 
73 


307 



19 

15 



19 
26 




19 



686 


22 


16 


851 


30 


18 


1069 


56 


26 


766 


39 


25 


54 1 


33 


30 








. 


3913 


ISO 


23 



35-64 COMBINED 
f OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



65-94 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



54 


9 


10 


37 


20 


19 


92 


1 1 


1 1 


47 


21 


21 


128 


12 


12 


69 


25 


25 


116 


14 


14 


50 


27 


27 


124 


18 


17 


41 


32 


33 


a 











. 




516 


13 


13 


244 


25 


25 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 

EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


35-44 

45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 




0.023 
0.013 
0.009 
0.013 
0.004 


0.0O9 
0.005 
0.004 
0.005 
0.009 


0.008 
0.004 
0.012 
0.008 
0.623 


0.377 
0.213 
0. 142 
0. 197 
0.064 


0.143 
0.074 
0.057 
0.074 
0. 130 


35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.012 ' 
0.010 


0.003 
0.004 


0.001 
0.016 


0.190 
0. 154 


0.043 
0.064 


35-64 
65-94 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.012 
0.011 


■ 0.003 
0.004 


0.001 
0.006 


0.190 
0.177 


0.043 
0.065 


J5-64 
45-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.009 
0.007 


0.003 
0.004 


0.001 
0.125 - 


0.148 
0. 102 


0.045 
0.067 



SEX: FEMALE 

EVENT" CORONARY HEART DISEASE 

RISK FACTOR: METROPOLITAN RELATIVE WEIGHT (PERCENT) 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 
FACTOR 

54-104 
105-114 
115-124 
125-134 
135-272 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



RISK 
FACTOR 

54-104 
105-1 14 
115-124 
125-134 
135-272 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



35-44 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1694 

1430 

1058 

566 

860 



1 

2 1 
2 1 

2 1 



7 I 



8 

56 16 



75-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



517 
373 
399 
266 
394 


1931 



17 
9 
27 
15 
17 


85 



u 

(2 
34 
2S 
22 



22 



45-54 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



2095 
2331 
2107 
1372 
2054 


9959 



15 
10 
14 

7 
26 


72 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



41 
28 
21 
16 
17 


123 




10 



49 

71 
31 
59 



55-64 AT EXAM 

PERSON • OF ANNUAL 

EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

2045 32 8 

2409 32 7 

2479 43 9 

1743 35 10 

2837 84 15 




11513 




226 



35-64 
• OF 
EVENTS 

48 
44 
59 

42 
112 


305 



65-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



COMBINED 

AGE- 
CRUDE ADJUSTED 



5 

6 
10 


6 



1216 
1 145 
1395 
982 
1510 


6248 



33 

31 
29 
32 

49 


174 



14 

14 
10 
16 
16 



65-94 COMBINED 
» OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



54 
40 
59 
48 
68 


269 



15 
15 
16 
19 
18 



15 
13 
17 
19 
18 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 

35-44 

45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 

35-64 
65-94 

35-64 
65-94 

35-64 
65-94 



UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 



BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 



COeFFlCIEMT 
OF RISK FACTOR 

0.019 
0.015 
0.011 
0.005 
0.007 
0.006 



MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 



015. 
905 



012 
006 



006 
003 



SE 
COEFFICIENT 

0.014 
0.004 
0.003 
0.003 
0.005 
0.017 

0.002 
0.003 

0.002 
0.003 

0.002 
0.003 



P-VALUe 



167 
001 
00 1 
105 
164 



0.001 
0.091 



0.001 
0.036- 



0.012 
0.253 



STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 

0.380 
0.325 
0.244 
0. 1 17 
0. 147 
0. 125 

0.319 
0. 100 



264 

124 



137 

070 



STD 
SE 

0.275 
0.091 
0.058 
0.072 
0. 106 
0.328 

0.046 
0.059 

0.048 
0.059 

0.054 
0.06 1 



- 37 



TABLE 1-11 DATE=020CT!5 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
BT AGE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAM: FRAMIHGHAM STUDY JO-YEAR FOLLOHUP 

SEX' MALE 

EVENT 1 CORONARY HEART DISEASE 

RISK FACTOR' VITAL CAPACITY - HEIGHT INDEX (ML/INCH) 

PERSONS AT RISK' PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 
FACTOR 

<iS-'49 
SO-S"* 
55-59 
60-85 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



J5-<i<» AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



269 

1022 
2010 


2 

3 

1 

1 1 

2<i 


<t 

1 
5 
6 


^<i72 


t 
<i2 


38 

5 



15-54 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1062 
1125 
1658 
1739 
2135 

5 
772'i 



33 
29 
<<Z 
23 
35 


167 



16 
13 
13 

8 



55-6<i AT EXAM 
PERSON < OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



20<i5 


93 


23 


liiSO 


48 


16 


1835 


76 


21 


1H16 


56 


20 


1255 


34 


14 


13 








8049 


307 


19 



65-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON » OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1752 
749 
712 
442 
246 

12 
3913 



85 
44 
26 
14 
10 

1 
180 



24 
29 
18 
16 
20 

42 
23 



( 



RISK 
FACTOR 

8-44 
45-49 

50-54 
55-59 
60-85 

UNKNOHN 
TOTAL 



75-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



649 


46 


35 


172 


4 


12 


97 


5 


26 


65 


6 


46 


26 








3 








1017 


61 


30 



85-94 AT EXAM 35-64 COMBINED 

PERSON • OF ANNUAL t OF AGE- 

EXAMS EVENTS RATE EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 

24 

6 
7 
2 



39 



65-94 COMBINED 
t OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



128 


19 


16 


133 


27 


26 


80 


13 


12 


48 


26 


25 


119 


14 


14 


32 


20 


20 


95 


1 1 


12 


20 


20 


22 


93 


9 


10 


10 


13 


16 


1 


14 


8 


1 


25 


33 


516 


13 


13 


244 


25 


25 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 

EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 

COEFFICIENT 


STD 

SE 


35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
35-94 




0.011 
-0.02S 
-0.011 
-0.013 
-0.021 


0.018 
0.008 
0.006 
0.003. 
0.014 


0.523 
0.002 
0.062 
0.114 
0.135 


0.101 
-0.235 
-0. 107 
-0.120 
-0.199 


0. 159 
0.076 
0.058 
0.076 
0. 133 


35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


-0.027- 
-0.01Z . 


0.004 
0.007 


0.001 
0.014 


-0.26 1 
-0. 160 


0.043 
0.065 


35-64 
65-94 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


-0.012 
-0.013 


o.oos 

0.007 


0.016 
0.059 


-0. 112 
-0. 127 


0.046 
0.067 


35-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


-0.003 
-0^.010 


O.OOS 

0.007 


0.58f 
0. 153 


-0.027 
-0.097 


0.049 
0.069 



SEX' FEMALE 

EVENT' CORONARY HEART DISEASE 

RISK FACTOR' VITAL CAPACITY - HEIGHT INDEX (ML/INCH) 

PERSONS AT RISK' PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 
FACTOR 

4-29 

30-34 
35-59 

40-44 
45-92 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



33-44 AT EXAH 45-J4 AT EXAM 

PERSON • OF ANNUAL PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



122 
289 

769 
1427 
2983 

21 
5616 



534 

1217 
2077 
2804 
3310 

17 
9959 



7 
10 
22 
19 
14 


72 



55-64 AT EXAM 65-74 AT EXAM 

PERSON t OF ANNUAL PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



14«1 


49 


17 


2418 


54 


11 


3048 


57 


9 


27 06 


51 


9 


1859 


IS 


4 


21 








11513 


226 


10 



1747 


79 


23 


1715 


39 


11 


1529 


24 


8 


854 


22 


13 


397 


10 


13 


6 








6243 


474 


14 



RISK 
FACTOR 

4-29 
30-34 
35-39 
40-44 
45-92 

UNKNOHN 
TOTAL 



AGE AT 
EXAM 

35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-34 
85-94 

35-44 
65-94 

35-44 
65-94 

35-64 
65-94 



75-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



85-94 AT EXAM 35-64 COMBINED 

PERSON I OF ANNUAL • OF AGE- 

EXAMS EVENTS RATE EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



63-94 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



930 


41 


22 


569 


30 


26 


314 


13 


21 


1 1 1 


\ 


S 


2S 








2 








1951 


35 


22 



UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 



BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 



MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 



COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 

-0. 106 
-0.048 
-0.043 
-0.036 
-0.020 
-0.090 

-0.068 . 
-0.059 



-0.042 
-0.034 



-0.029 
-0.029 



80 3 

29 2 

13 

1 




50 

34 

9 




58 
65 
80 
7t 
31 



123 10 


41 



305 


LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 




P-VALUE 


0.044 
0.015 
0.009 

0.010 
0.016 
0.045 




0.016 
0.002 
0.001 
0.001 
0. 198 
0.047 


0.007 

0.003 




0.001 
0.001 


0.003 
0.003 




0.001 
. 001 


0.008 
0.009 




0.001 
0.001 



14 
3 

7 
5 

2 


6 



tt 
7 
i 
5 

2 


6 



128 
71 
37 
23 
10 



STANDARDIZED 
-COEFFICIENT 

-0.775 
-0.357 
-0.323 
-0.263 
-0. 141 
-0.606 

-0.542 
-0.293 

-0.331 
-0.253 



23 

15 

10 

12 

■ 12 


16 



STD 
SE 

0.322 
0.114 
0.065 
0.075 
0. 109 
0.304 

0.055 
0.061 



-0.231 
-0.213 



060 
064 



065 
066 



23 

13 
II 
II 

10 


16 



38 - 



TABLE l-IZ DATE=020CT85 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
AT AGE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAM^ FRAMIHGHAM STUDY 30-TEAR FOLLOWUP 

SEXi MALE 

EVENT: CORONARY HEART DISEASE 

RISK FACTOR-- HEART RATE (PER MINUTE) 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 
FACTOR 

30-67 
6S-75 
76-83 
81-91 
92-220 

UNKNOMN 
TOTAL 



RISK 
FACTOR 

30-67 
68-75 
76-83 
81-91 
92-220 

UNKNOWN 

TOTAL 



35-11 AT EXAM 15-51 AT EXAM 

PERSON t OF ANNUAL PERSON » OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1251 


6 


2 


1192 


1 t 


1 


722 


5 


6 


579 


11 


12 


395 ■ 


3 


1 








- 


1172 


12 


5 



75-81 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATfe 



301 
296 
192 
123 
105 


1017 



17 
19 
I I 

8 
6 


61 



2S 
32 
29 
33 
29 



1919 


37 


9 


2190 


11 


9 


1391 


31 


12 


1097 


29 


13 


791 


23 


11 








_ 


7721 


167 


1 1 



85-91 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

1 1 

12 

10 

5 

I 


59 



55-61 AT EXAM 

PERSON » OF ANNUAL 

EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

2309 69 IS 

2190 100 20 

1371 51 20 

1061 10 19 

8 12 11 27 




8019 




307 



65-71 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



I 183 
I 159 
621 
187 
16 


3913 



50 
37 
31 
30 
29 


130 



21 

16 
27 
31 
32 



35-41 COMBINED 
t OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



65-91 COMBINED 
» OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



lie 


10 


10 


67 


22 


22 


155 


12 


12 


57 


19 


19 


96 


11 


11 


15 


27 


27 


83 


15 


15 


10 


33 


33 


70 


17 


17 


35 


31 


31 





_ 







_ 




516 


13 


13 


211 


25 


25 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 

COEFFICIENT 


35-11 
15-51 
55-61 
65-71 
75-81 
85-91 




0.028 
0.011 
0.012 
0.015 
0.002 


Q.Oll 
0.006 
0.001- 
0.005 
Q.QIO 


35-61 
65-91 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.011 ■ 
0.012, 


0.003 
0.005 


J5-61 
6S-91 


BIVARIATE 
flIVARIATE 


0.011 
0.012 


0.003 
O.OOS 


35-61 
65-91 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.001 
0.010 


0.001 
O.OOS 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 
P-VALUE 



0.010 
0.019 
0.001 
0.005 
0.823 



0.001 
0.009 



0.001 
0.009 



0.275 
0.036 



STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 



351 
176 
160 
199 
029 



0. 183 
0. 162 



0.181 
0. 162 



O.OSO 
0. 131 



STD 
SE 

0. 137 
0.075 
0.05S 
0.07 1 
0.131 



0.012 
0.062 



0.012 
0.062 



0.015 
0.061 



SEX: FEMALE 

EVENT: CORONARY HEART DISEASE 

RISK FACTOR: HEART RATE (PER MINUTE) 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 
FACTOR 

30-67 
68-75 
76-83 
81-91 
92-220 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



35-11 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



I09Z 
1803 
1051 
939 
731 




5«l« 





2 I 

3 I 
2 I 




7 1 



15-51 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1897 
3211 
191 I 

1601 
1303 


9959 



17 
23 

10 
15 
9 


72 



55-41 AT EXAM 
PERSON • QF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



2305 
3168 
2351 
1780 
1609 


11513 



36 

61 
15 
11 
10 


226 



8 

9 
10 
12 
12 



6 5-71 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1103 
1663 
1353 
1089 
1030 


6218 



32 
53 
30 
28 
31 


171 



IS 

16 



13 
15 



RISK 
FACTOR 

JO-67 
68-75 
76-85 
81-91 
92-220 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



7 5-81 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATfe 



568 17 

142 17 

128 21 

550 IS 



571 




1951 



IS 




8S 



21 
18 
25 
2S 



22 



85-91 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



26 


1 


77 


52 








21 








25 


1 


87 


18 


2 


54 








_ 


23 


10 


11 



55-61 COMBINED 
i OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



55 
89 
58 

56 
19 


505 



65-91 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



55 
70 
St 
17 
18 


249 



IS 
14 
.14 
14 
17 



18 
14 
11 
14 
17 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAH 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


55-11 

15-51 
55-61 
65-71 
75-81 
85-91 




0.011 
-0.003 

0.009 
-0.002 
-fl.OOS 

O.OOS 


0.027 
0.010 
0.005 
0.006 
0.008 
0.021 


0.592 
0.773 
0.07 1 
0.722 
0.518 
0.832 


0. ISO 
-0.051 

0. 1 IS 
-0.028 
-0.071 

0.070 


0.535 
0. 120 
0.061 
0.078 
0.111 
0.328 


5S-61 
45-91 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.007 . 
-0.003 


0.001 
O.OOS 


0. 121 
0.566 


0.084 

-0.054 


0.056 
0.063 


35-61 
6i-91 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.006 
-0.003 


0.001 
0.005 


0. 112 
0.518 


0.081 
-0.010 


0.055 
0.06 3 


35-61 
65-91 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


-0.002 
-0 . 007 


0.005 
; 0.005 


0.431 
0. 115 


-0.029 
-0.095 


0.059 
0.061 



- 39 - 



RISK 
FACTOR 

NONE 

1-10 
1 1-20 
Zl-'iO 
1)1-90 

UNKNOHN 
TOTAL 



TABLE 1-13 DATE'0<iOCT85 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
BY AGE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAM' FRAMINGHAH STUDY 30-YEAR FOLLOWUP 

SEXi MALE 

EVENT: CORONARY HEART DISEASE 

RISK FACTOR-. CIGARETTES SMOKED (NUMBER PER DAY) 

PERSONS AT risk: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



3S-<ii* AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1383 


6 


2 


433 


4 


5 


ItSS . 


IS 


5 


987 


12 


6 


158 


5 


16 


26 








4072 


42 


5 



45-54 AT EXAM 
PERSON f OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



3068 


47 


8 


716 


12 


3 


2051 


55 


13 


1602 


46 


14 


252 


5 


10 


35 


2 


29 


7724 


167 


1 1 



55-64 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



4295 


138 


16 


769 


21 


14 


1682 


81 


24 


1 1 19 


57 


25 


162 


10 


31 


22 








8049 


307 


19 



6 5-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



( 



26 11 

374 

526 

369 

27 

6 
3913 



120 

15 

25 

17 

2 



23 
20 
24 
23 
37 

83 
23 



RISK 
FACTOR 

NONE 

1-10 
11-20 
21-40 
41-90 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



75-84 AT EXAM 85-94 AT EXAM 

PERSON • OF ANKUAL PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

27 
6 
5 

1 



39 



797 


53 


33 


92 


5 


27 


77 


1 


6 


4< 


2 


22 


5 














. 


1017 


61 


30 



35-64 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



65-94 COMBINED 
» OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



191 


1 1 


10 


175 


25 


25 


37 


10 


10 


20 


21 


21 


151 


14 


16 


27 


22 


21 


115 


16 


17 


19 


23 


23 


20 


17 


20 


2 


31 


29 


2 


12 


1 1 


1 


83 


65 


516 


13 


13 


244 


25 


25 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


35-44 

45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 




0.029 
0.015 
0.016 
0.002 
-0.040 


0.010 

0.005' 

0.004 

0.006 

0.023 


• 0.005 
0.002 
0.301 
0.719 
0.084 


0.407 
0.228 
0.218 
0.027 
-0.36 1 


0. 144 
0.073 
0.052 
0.075 
0.209 


35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.012 ' 
-0.004 


0.003 
0.006 


O.OOI 
0.552 


0. 171 
-O.04O 


0.042 
0.963 


35-64 
65-94 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.018 
-0.001 


0.003 
0.006 


0.001 
0.808 


0.259 
-0.017 


0.041 
0.069 


35-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.020 
0.001 


0.003 
0.006 


O.OOI 
0.902 


0.290 
0.008 


0.042 

0.069 



SEXi FEMALE 

EVENT! CORONARY HEART DISEASE 

RISK FACTORi CIGARETTES SMOKED (NUMBER PER DAT5 

PERSONS AT RISKi PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 
FACTOR 

NONE 

1-10 
11-20 
21-40 
41-90 

UNKNOHN 
TOTAL 



35-44 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



2582 

1314 

1371 

298 

22 



29 
56 16 



2 
1 

3 1 
1 2 




7 1 



45-54 AT EXAM 
PERSON f OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



5528 

1726 

2009 

622 

37 

37 
9959 



41 

11 

14 

5 

1 


72 



4 
3 
3 

4 
14 


4 



55-64 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



7595 


146 


to 


1566 


31 


10 


1696 


35 


10 


602 


12 


10 


16 


2 


63 


38 








IIS13 


226 


10 



65-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON ♦ OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



4863 
626 
568 

172 


19 
6248 



136 
14 
22 



1 
174 



14 
11 

19 
3 



26 
14 



RISK 
FACTOR 

NONE 

1-10 
11-20 
21-40 
41-90 

UNKNOHN 
TOTAL 



75-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON « OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1710 

137 

84 

16 



4 
1951 



75 
7 
3 




85 



22 
26 
IS 






22 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



117 


10 


43 























- 







- 







_ 


123 


10 


41 



35-64 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE AOJUSTEO 



189 

43 

52 

18 

3 


305 



6 
5 
5 

6 
20 


6 



6 
5 

6 

6 

32 

s 

6 



65-94 COMBINES 
« OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE AOJUSTEO 



221 
21 

zs 

I 



1 

269 



17 
14 
19 
3 



22 

16 



16 
14 

ts 

2 



20 
16 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-54 
85-94 




0.057 

0.006 

0.006 

-0.002 

-0.018 


0.029 
0.011 
0.007 
0.010 
0.026 


0.046 
0.588 
0.364 
0.841 
0.490 


0.563 

0.06 1 

0.058 

-0.016 

-0.091 


0.282 
0.113 
0.064 
0.079 
0. 131 


55-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.001 
-0.009 


0.006 
0.010 


0.877 
0.332 


0.009 
-0.066 


0.057 
0.068 


35-64 
65-94 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.009 
-0.005 


0.006 
0.010 


0.091 
0.6 14 


0.094 
-0.034 


0.056 
0.068 


35-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.014 
0.001 


0.006 
0.010 


0.013 
0.953 


0.139 
0.004 


0.056 
0.068 



/ c 



40 - 



TABLE t-t4 DATE»190CT55 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
BY AGE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAM' FRAMINGHAM STUDY 30-YEAR FOLLOWUP 

SEX! MALE 

EVENT: CORONARY HEART DISEASE 

RISK FACTOR: ALBUMIN IN URINE, DEFINITE 

PERSONS AT RISK; PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 

FACTOR 


35- 

PERSON 
EXAMS 


■»<i AT EXAM 

» OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


45- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


54 AT EXAM 

t OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


55- 

PERSON 
EXAMS 


64 


AT EXAM 
1 OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


65- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


74 AT EXAM 

1 OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


NO 
YES 


4366 
70 


41 
1 


5 

7 


7599 
99 


161 
6 


11 
30 


7838 
184 




299 
7 


19 

19 


3792 
115 


171 
9 


23 

39 


UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 


36 
<i"i72 



42 



5 


26 
7724 



167 



It 


27 
8049 




1 
307 


19 
19 


6 
3913 



180 



23 



75-84 AT EXAM 
RISK PERSON » OF ANNUAL 
FACTOR EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON « OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



35-64 COMBINED 
t OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



65-94 COMBINED 
t OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



NO 
YES 


989 
25 


60 30' 
1 20 


32 

7 




501 
14 


13 
20 


13 
21 


254 
10 


24 
34 


25 

35 


UNKNOWN 3 
TOTAL 1017 



61 30 



39 




1 
.51< 


i 
13 


8 
15 



244 



25 



25 










LOGISTIC 


REGRESSIONS 












AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 




STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 




STD 
SE 




«S-S'i 

65-74 

75-84 
85-94 




0.424 
1 .092 

-0.003 
0.537 

-0.438 




1 .019 
0.429 
0.390 
0.356 
1.029 


0.677 
0.011 
0.994 
0.099 
0.670 




0.O55 
0.123 

-0.000 
0.099 

-0.068 




0.127 
0.048 
0.058 
0.060 
0.160 




35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.464 
0.357 




0.276 
0.334 


0.095 
0.286 




0.061 
0.060 




0.036 
0.057 




35-64 
65-94 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.334 
0.338- 




0.278 
0.335 


0.230 
0.313 




0.044 
0.057 




0.036 
0.057 




35-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


-0.26a' 
0.005 




0.306 
0.344 


0.381 
0.988 




-0.035 
0.001 




0.040 
O.OSS 





SEX' FEMALE 

EVENT: CORONARY HEART DISEASE 

RISK FACTOR: ALBUMIN IN URINE, DEFINITE 

PERSONS AT RISK' PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 
FACTOR 


35- 

PERSON 
EXAMS 


44 AT EXAM 

1 OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


4 5- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


54 AT EXAM 

t OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


55- 

PERSON 
EXAMS 


64 AT FXAM 

1 OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


65-74 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


AT EXAM 
t OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


NO 
YES 


5353 
225 


6 

1 


1 
2 


96 56 
278 


68 

5 


4 

5 


11263 
225 


219 

7 


10 
16 


6118 
120 


167 

7 


14 
29 


UNKNOMN 
TOTAL 


38 
5616 



7 



1 


25 
9959 


1 
72 


20 

4 


25 
11515 



226 



10 


10 
6248 



■174 



14 


RISK 
FACTOR 


75- 
PERSON 

EXAMS 


84 AT EXAM 

1 OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


85- 

PERSON 
EXAMS 


94 AT EXAM 

« OF ANNUAL 
r/ENTS RATE 


35- 

• OF 

EVENTS 


64 COMBINED 65- 
AGE- 1 OF 
CRUDE ADJUSTED EVENTS 


94 COMBINED 

AGE- 
CRUDE ADJUS 


NO 
YES 


1904 
3« 


85 







120 
2 


9 

1 


38 
167 


293 

11 


i 
8 


9 


261 


16 
25 


16 
24 


UNKNOHN 
TOTAL 


9 
1931 



8S 



22 



123 



10 


41 


1 
50S 


6 
6 


7 
6 



269 



16 




16 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAH 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VAIUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 


" 


1.381 
0.451 
0.482 
0.792 

1.819 


1.082 
0.595 
0.390 
0.597 

1.273 


0.202 
0.468 
0.217 
0.046 

0.153 


0.272 
0.071 
0.067 
0.109 

0.282 


0.213 

0.098 
0.054 
0.055 

0.197 


35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.508 
0.457 


0.309 
0.568 


0.320 

o.zts 


0.050 
0.065 


0.050 

0.051 


35-64 
65-94 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.540 
0.454 . 


0.512 
0.569 


0.083 
0.21S 


0.087 
0.065 


0.050 
0.051 


35-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.134- 
0.101 


0.532 
0.382 


0.«87 
0.791 


0.022 
0.014 


0.054 
0.055 



41 - 



TABLE 1-t5 DATE=0'iOCT!5 

AVERAOE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
BT AOE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAM" FRAMINGHAM STUDY 30-YEAR FOLLOWUP 



RISK 
FACTOR 

NO 

MILD 

DEFINITE 

UNKNOHN 
TOTAL 



SEXi MALE 

EVENT" CORONARY HEART DISEASE 

RISK FACTOR! HEART ENLARGEMENT BY X-RAY 

PERSONS AT RISK' PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



JS-'i'i AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



<ia«3 
185 
219 

5 



37 5 

<i 1 1 

1 2 







45-5t AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



63SS 
650 
687 



125 

19 
22 

1 
167 



10 
15 
16 

12S 
1 I 



55-64 AT EXAM 
PERSON « OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



5967 

962 

1119 



ao<t9 



203 
42 
62 

a 

307 



17 
22 

zs 



65-7<( AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



c 



2554 103 
578 21 
751 56 




3913 




180 



20 

37 



23 



RISK 
FACTOR 

NO 

MILD 
DEFINITE 

UNKNOHN 
TOTAL 



AGE AT 
EXAH 

35-44 

45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 



75-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



589 

178 
250 


1017 



35-64 
6S-94 



35-64 
65-94 



35-64 
65-94 



26 
1 1 
24 


6 I 



22 

31 
48 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 



BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 



MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 



COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 

0,016 
0.273 
0.255 
0.310 
0.416 



0.347 
0.351 



0.237 
0.337- 



0.175 
0.217 



29 
5 
5 


36 5 
65 
85 


1 1 
18 
21 



39 


1 
516 


50 
13 


• LOGISTIC 


REGRESSIONS 




SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 




0.328 

0. 110 
0.072 
0.088 
0.148 


0.962 
0.013 
0.001 
0.001 
0.005 




0.058 
0.074 


O.OOI 
0.001 




0.059 
0,075 


0.001 
0.001 




0.064 
0.080 


0.006 
0.007 





35-64 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



12 
17 
18 



63-9<l COMBINED 
» OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



48 
13 



STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 

0.007 
0.167 
0.184 
0.247 
0.351 



130 
33 
81 


244 



0.221 



0.151 
0.272 



I. Ill 
0.175 



20 
22 
40 



STD 
SE 



153 

067 
052 
070 
125 



037 
060 



038 
060 



041 
064 



20 

21 
40 



SEXi FEMALE. 

EVENT" CORONARY HEART DISEASE 

RISK FACTOR" HEART ENLARGEMENT BY X-RAY 

PERSONS AT RISK' PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 
FACTOR 

NO 

MILD 

DEFINITE 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



3S-44 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



JU4 
199 
245 

8 
5616 



45-54 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



8017 
943 
993 

6 
9959 




72 



55-64 AT EXAM 
PERSON » OF ANNUAt 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



7522 
1769 
2218 

4 
1 1S13 



109 7 

44 12 

73 16 




226 




10 



65-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON f OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



3191 
1 150 
1907 


6248 



64 
26 
84 

. 
174 



RISK 
FACTOR 

NO 

MILD 
DEFINITE 

UNKNOMN 
TOTAL 



AGE AT 
EXAM 

35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 

35-6 4 
65-94 



75-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE- 



aS-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON % OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



702 15 
373 20 
876 50 




1951 



35-64 
65-94 



35-64 
65-94 




85 



1 1 
27 
29 



22 



UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 



BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 



MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 



COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 

1 . 027 
0.529 
0.425 
0.412 
0.453 
-0.205 

0.635 
0.436 

0.429 
0.406 

0.312 
0.323 



32 3 

30 3 
6t 4 


47 

50 
33 


16 t 
52 

92 



123 10 


41 



305 


LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 




P-VALUE 


0.439 
0.142 
0.075 
0.086 
0. 136 
0.385 




0.019 
0.001 
0.001 
0.001 
0.001 
0.594 


0.064 
0.07 1 




o.oot 

0.001 


0.067 
0.072 




0.001 
0.001 


0.073 
0.075 




0.001 

0.001 



35-64 COMBINED 
» OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 

4 

9 

13 



65-94 COMBINED 
e OF ACE- 

EVENTS CRUSe ADJUSTED 



4 
7 
It 


82 

49 
134 



6 



269 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 




0.454 
0.33S 
0.33S 
0.362 
0.405 
-0. 173 




0.443 
0.389 




0.299 
0.363 




0.218 
0.288 





10 
16 
24 



STD 
SE 

0. 194 
0.091 
0.060 
0.076 
0. 122 
0.324 

0.045 
0.063 

0.047 
0.064 

0.051 
0.067 



II 
IS 
24 



46 



- 42 - 



TABIE 1-U ^ DATE=01NOV85 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
BY ACE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAM' FRAMINGHAM STUDY 30-YEAR FOLLOHUP 

SEX' MALE 

EVENT! CORONARY HEART DISEASE 

RISK FACTOR! LEFT VENTRICULAR HYPERTROPHY BY ELECTROCARDIOGRAM 

PERSONS AT RISK I PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 
FACTOR 

NO 

HUD 

DEFINITE 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



RISK 
FACTOR 

NO 

MILD 

DEFINITE 

UNKNOHN 
TOTAL 



35-44 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



4366 

78 
28 


4472 



42 





42 



7 5-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



949 

37 
31 


1017 



56 

1 

4 


61 



30 

14 
65 



30 



45-54 AT EXAM 
PERSON » OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



7497 

132 

95 


7724 



154 
6 
7 


167 



10 
23 
37 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

34 

2 
3 


39 



55-64 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



7693 
210 
146 


8049 



283 

8 

16 


J07 



18 

19 
55 



65- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 

3703 
90 

120 


391 3 



74 AT EXAM , 

I OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 



153 
10 
17 


180 



21 

56 
71 



23 



35-64 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



65-94 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



479 
14 
23 


12 
17 
43 


12 
16 
36 


212 
11 
21 


23 
45 
68 


23 
47 
69 



516 


IS 


13 



244 


25 


25 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


3TD 
SE 


35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 




0.544 

0.246 

0.697 

-0.032 


0.180 
0.140 
0.143 
0.332 


0.003 
0.080 
0.001 
0.923 


0.152 

0.084 

0.238 

-0.013 


0.051 
0.048 
0.049 
0.135 


35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


' 0.605 
0.610 


0.107 
0.116 


0.001 
0.001 


0.162 
0.230 


0.029 
0.044 


35-64 
65-94 


flIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.515 
0.603- 


0.107 
0.117 


0.001 
0.001 


0.138 
0.227 


0.029 
0.044 


35-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.298' 
0.577 ■. 


0.117 
0.127 


0.011 
0.003 


0.080 
0.142 


0.031 
Q.048 



SEXi FEMALE 

EVENT I CORONARY HEART DISEASE 

RISK FACTOR" LEFT VENTRICULAR HYPERTROPHY BY ELECTROCARDIOGRAM 

PERSONS AT RISK' PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



35-44 AT EXAM 



45-54 AT EXAM 



RISK 
FACTOR 


PERSON 
EXAMS 


• OF 
EVENTS 


ANNUAL 

RATE 


PERSON 
EXAMS 


• OF 
EVENTS 


ANNUAL 

RATE 


PERSON 
EXAMS 


• OF 
EVENTS 


ANNUAL 
RATE 


PERSON 
EXAMS 


1 OF 
EVENTS 


ANNUAL 
RATE 


NO 

MILD 

DEFINITE 


5563 
38 
15 


6 



1 


1 



33 


9798 

107 

54 


69 

1 
2 


4 
5 

19 


11137 
226 
150 


208 

7 

11 


9 

15 
37 


5966 
134 

148 


147 

9 

18 


IZ 
34 
61 


UNKNOHN 
TOTAL 



5616 




7 


1 



9959 



72 


4 


a 

11513 



226 


10 



6248 



174 


14 


RISK 
FACTOR 


75- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


84 AT EXAM 

• OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


85- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


94 AT EXAM 

t OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


35- 
1 OF 
EVENTS 


64 COMBINED 65 
AGE- 1 OF 
CRUDE ADJUSTED EVENTS 


-94 COMBINED 

AGE- 
CRUDE AOJUS 


NO 

MILD 

DEFINITE 


1833 
49 
69 


76 
4 
S 


21' 
41 
3« 


111 
6 
« 


9 



1 


41 



83 


283 
8 

14 


5 
11 
32 


5 

8 

29 


232 
13 
24 


15 
34 
54 


15 
35 
55 


UNKNOHN 
TOTAL 



1951 



85 


ZZ 



1Z3 



10 


41 



305 


i 


6 



269 


1« 


16 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAH 




COEFFICIEMT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


■ STD 
SE 


55-44 

45-54 
S5-«4 
<5-74 
75-84 
85-94 




1.189 
0.410 
0.451 
0.752 
0.408 
-0.269 


0.750 
0.376 
0.156 
0.139 
0.235 
0.838 


0.113 
.0.275 
0.004 
0.001 
0.082 
0.748 


0.204 
0.089 
0.135 
0.244 
0.146 
-0.128 


0.129 
0.082 
0.047 
0.045 
0.084 
0.397 


35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.894 
0.713 


0.135 
0.107 


0.001 
0.001 


0.190 
0.251 


0.029 
0.038 


35-64 
63-94 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.710 
0.689. 


0.137 
0.107 


0.001 
0.001 


0.151 
0.243 


0.029 
0.038 


35-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.331- 
0.586 


0.156 
0.113 


0.034 
0.001 


0.070 
0.206 


0.033 
0.040 



43 



TA8I.E 1-17 DATE=23N0V!5 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
BY AOE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAM' FRAMINGHAM STUDY iO-YEAR FOLLOHUP 

SEX I MALE 

EVENT ■ CORONARY HEART DISEASE 

RISK FACTORi INTRAVENTRICULAR CONDUCTION DEFECT (WITH ORS INTERVAL MORE THAN 0.11 SECOND) 

PERSONS AT RISKi PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 
FACTOR 

NO 

INCOMPLETE 
COMPLETE 

UNKNOHN 
TOTAL 



35-44 AT EXAM 
PERSON » OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



4I«I 
275 
36 . 


4472 



39 
3 




42 



45-54 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



7213 152 

446 12 

65 J 



1 1 
13 
23 




7724 




167 



55-64 AT EXAM 65-74 AT EXAM 

PERSON t OF ANNUAL PERSON I OF ANNUAL 

EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



c 



7386 272 
456 24 
207 II 





sa49 




307 



18 
26 
27 



19 



3566 
183 

164 


3913 



156 
14 
10 


180 



22 
33 
30 



23 



RISK 
FACTOR 

NO 

INCOMPLETE 

COMPLETE 

UNKNOHN 
TOTAL 



75-84 AT EXAM 85-94 AT EXAM 

PERSON I OF ANNUAL PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



918 
21 

78 


1017 



55 
1 
5 


61 



20 
24 
32 



30 



31 

2 
i 


39 



35-64 COMBINED 
I OF AOE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



63-94 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVEMT3 CRUDE ADJUSTED 



463 

39 
14 


12 
17 
23 


12 

17 
19 ■ 


15 
16 


24 
36 
32 


24 
35 
31 



516 


IS 


13 



244 


25 


25 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 

COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STO 
SE 


35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 




-0.074 
0.325 
0.248 
0.259 
0.022 


0.547 
0.221 
0.129 
0.145 
0.239 


0.892 

0.141 
0.054 
0.074 
0.926 


-0.022 

0.095 
0.096 
0.115 
0.012 


0.162 
0.065 
0.050 
0.064 
0.130 


35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.311 
0.211 


0.110 
0.IZ1 


0.005 
0.032 


0.104 
0.099 


0.037 
0.057 


35-64 
65-94 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.227 
0.188- 


0.109 
0.121 


.036 
0.121 


0.076 
0.088 


0.036 
0.057 


35-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.191 
0.217 


0.11S 
0.123 


0.096 
0.078 


0.064 
0.102 


0.03S 
O.OSS 



SEXi FEMALE 

EVENT" CORONARY HEART DISEASE 

RISK FACTOR" INTRAVENTRICULAR CONDUCTION DEFECT (WITH ORS IHTERVAL MORE THAN 0.11 SECONOJ 

PERSONS AT RISK' PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 
FACTOR 




35-44 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


AT EXAM 
1 OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


45- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


-54 AT EXAM 

♦ OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


55- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


64 AT EXAM 65- 
1 OF ANNUAL PERSON 
EVENTS RATE EXAMS 


74 AT EXAM 

1 OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


NO 

INCOMPLETE 
COMPLETE 


5529 
75 
12 


5 
2 13 



9771 

144 

44 


69 

1 
2 


4 
3 

23 


11183 
187 
143 


213 

3 

10 


10 

8 

35 


6027 

115 
106 


167 

2 
5 


14 

9 

24 




UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 





5616 




7 1 



9959 



72 


4 



11513 



226 


10 



6248 


. 
174 


14 




RISK 
FACTOR 




75-84 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


AT EXAM 
1 OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


85- 

PERSON 
EXAMS 


-94 AT EXAM 

1 OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


35- 
» OF 
EVENTS 


64 COMBINED 

AGE- 
CRUDE ADJUSTED 


65-94 COMBINED 
t OF AGE- 
EVENTS CRUDE AOJUS 


HO 

INCOMPLETE 
COMPLETE 


1847 
36 
68 


80 zi 

2 28 

3 22 


117 

1 
5 


9 

1 



38 

500 



287 

6 

12 


5 

7 

SO 


5 

7 

23 


2S« 
5 
8 


16 
16 
22 




16 
20 
23 


UNKNOHN 
TOTAL 





I9S1 



85 22 



123 



10 


41 



305 


i 


6 



269 


16 




16 












LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 








- 






AGE AT 
EXAM 






COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 




P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 




STD 
SE 






35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 






2.049 
0.775 
0.586 
0.177 
0.040 
0.067 




o.«os 

0.371 
O.liS 
0.231 
0.277 
0.779 




0.001 
0.037 
0.001 
0.443 
0.885 
0.931 




0.301 
0.138 
0.149 
0.051 
0.016 
0.027 




o.a<9 

0.066 
0.043 
0.067 
0.108 
0.315 






35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.801 
0.153 




0.149 
0.173 




0.001 
0.379 




0.167 
0.048 




0.031 
0.055 






35-64 
65-94 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.626 
0.120. 




0.149 
0.173 




0.001 
0.488 




0.131 
0.038 




0.031 
0.055 






33-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


554 
0.108 




0.161 
0.175 




0.001 
0.538 




0.116 
0.034 




0.034 
0.056 







( 



- 44 



TABLE t-18 DATE=020CTS5 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
BY AGE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAM: FRAMINGHAM STUDY JO-YEAR FOLLOWUP 

SEX: MALE 

EVENT: CORONARY HEART DISEASE 

RISK FACTOR: DEFINITE NONSPECIFIC T-WAVE OR ST-SEGMENT ABNORMALITY BY ELECTROCARDIOGRAM 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 
FACTOR 



NO 
YES 



UtlKNDHN 
TOTAL 



35-:4:» AT EXAM '<S-5'< AT EXAM 55-6'* AT EXAM 

PERSON • OF ANNUAL PERSON I OF ANNUAL PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



4362 
1 10 




<t'»72 



37 
5 




42 



A 
23 



7352 
372 




7724 



152 
15 




167 



10 
20 



7462 
587 




8049 



273 
34 




307 



65- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


■74 


AT EXAM 
» OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


3472 
44 1 




147 
33 


21 

37 



3913 





180 


23 



RISK 
FACTOR 



NO 
YES 



UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



AGE AT 
EXAM 

35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 

35-64 
65-94 

35-64 
65-94 

35-64 
•65-94 



75-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



830 
187 




1017 



UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 



BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 



31' 
24 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON » OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



52 
9 




6 1 



COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 

1.717 
0.688 
0.482 
0.604 
-0.279 



0.76S 

0.453 



0.580 
0.408 . 



35-64 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 



0.242- 
0.318 



28 
1 1 


462 
54 



39 



5t« 


LOGISTIC 


REGRESSIONS 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


0.487 
0.276 
0. 187 
0.200 
0.370 


0.001 
0.013 
0.0 10 
0.002 
0.451 


0. 147 
0.171 


0.001 
0.008 


0. 149 
0. 172 


0.001 
O.OIS 


0.154 
0.174 


0. 121 
0.068 



12 
25 



12 
24 



65-94 COMBINED 
• OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



199 

45 




244 



STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 

0.266 

0. 147 

0. 125 

0.191 

• -0. 108 



0. 172 
0. 152 



0. 130 
0. 137 



0.054 
0. 106 



23 
35 



25 



STD 

SE 



,075 
059 

,049 
063 

, 144 



0.033 
0.057 



0.033 
0.058 



0.035 
0.058 



23 
35 



25 



SEX' FEMALE 

EVENT" CORONARY HEART DISEASE 

RISK FACTOR' DEFINITE NONSPECIFIC T-HAVE OR ST-SEGMENT ABNORMALITY BY ELECTROCARDIOGRAM 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 
FACTOR 


33- 

PERSOH 
EXAMS 


44 AT EXAM 

t OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


45- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


54 AT EXAM 

• OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


55- 

PERSON 
EXAMS 


■44 AT EXAM 

1 OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


65-71 
PERSON 
EXAHS 


1 AT EXAM 
1 OF ANNUAL 

EVENTS RATE 


NO 
YES 


5517 
99 


7 



1 



9543 
4 14 


66 
6 


5 
7 


10647 
86« 


194 
32 


9 
18 


5528 
720 


134 

38 


12 

24 


UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



56 16 




7 


1 



9959 



72 


4 


(1 
11513 



224 


to 



4248 



174 


14 


RISIC 
FACTOR 


75- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


■84 AT EXAM 

1 OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


85- 

PERSOH 
EXAMS 


•94 AT EXAM 

t OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


35-44 COMBINED 65- 
1 OF AGE- I OF 
EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED EVENTS 


■94 COMBINED 

AGE- 
CRUDE AOJUS 


NO 
YES 


1632 
319 


64 
21 


2ir 

33 


97 
26 


8 

2 


41 
38 


247 
3S 


S 
14 


s 
to 


208 
41 


14 
29 


it 


UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



1951 



85 


22 



123 



10 


41 



305 


4 


4 



269. 


14 


14 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 

EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUe 


STANDARDIZED 

COEFFICIENT 


STD 

SE 


35-44 




- 


- 


- 


- 


" 


45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 




0.743 
0.724 
0.793 
0.544 
-0.074 


0.429 
0. 194 
0. 188 
0.259 
0.823 


0.084 
0.001 
0.001 
0.035 
0.927 


0. 149 
0. 192 
0.253 
0.202 
-0.031 


0.084 
0.051 
0.060 
0.094 
0.338 


35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.992 
0.722 


0. 176 
0. 149 


0.001 
0.001 


0.218 
0.24 1 


0.039 
0.050 


35-64 
65-94 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.671 
0.678 . 


0. 177 
0. 150 


O.OOI 
0.001 


0. 148 
0.226 


0.039 
0.050 


35-64 
45-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.497- 
0.620 


0. 182 
0.152 


0.004 
0.001 


0. 109 
0.207 


0.040 
0.051 



45 



TABLE 2-1 DATE-02APR85 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
BY AGE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAM: FRAMINGHAM STUDY iO-Y£AR FOLLQWUP 

SEX: MALE 

EVENT: CORONARY HEART DISEASE OTHER THAN ANGINA PECTORIS 
RISK FACTOR: SYSTOLIC BLOOD PRESSURE. FIRST EXAMINER CMM HG) 
PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



c 



RISK 
FACTOR 

7<.-ll9 
120-li9 
i:i0-159 
160-179 
180-JOO 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



35-<i'i AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1223 

2165 

S41 

191 

52 

a 



6 
17 

7 
:< 



3<i 



2 

10 




:i5-5« AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1769 

i'>\7 

1732 

567 

239 


7721 



15 

37 

20 

5 


121 



6 
1 I 
13 
10 



55-6'* AT EXAM 65-7<< AT EXAM 

PERSON i OF ANNUAL PERSON I OF ANNUAL 

EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



14<<0 

3166 

2090 

916 

<4J7 


S019 



60 
62 
3'i 
2'i 


193 



6 
9 
15 
19 
27 



548 


5 


5 


I3A 1 


35 


13 


1 19'< 


IS 


20 


552 


27 


24 


278 


23 


4 1 








_ 


J91J 


138 


18 



RISJC 
FACTOR 



74-1 19 
120-139 
140-159 
160-179 
180-300 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



75-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



120 


5 


21 


345 


12 


17 


315 


17 


27 


153 


10 


33 


84 


10 


60 








. 


1017 


54 


27 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

7 
15 
1 1 

4 

Z 


39 



35-64 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVEHTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



65-94 COMBINED 
• OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



39 


4 


4 


10 


7 


3 


121 


7 


7 


47 


14 


14 


lOi 


1 1 


1 1 


66 


22 


22 


58 


17 


17 


39 


23 


28 


29 


20 


15 


33 


45 


45 





_ 







, 




353 


9 


9 


195 


20 


20 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 

COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 




0.016 
0.017 
0.018 
0.020 
0.018 


0.009 
0.004 
0.003 
0.003 
0.006 


a. 068 
0.001 
0.001 
0.001 
0.002 


0.270 
0.330 
0.397 
0.460 
0.400 


0. 148 
0.078 
0.060 
0.073 
O.ISO 


35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.020- 
0.020. 


0.002 
0.003 


0.001 
O.OQl 


0.4O7 

0.450 


0.043 
0.063 


35-64 
65-94 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIAIE 


0.017 
0.020 


0.002 
0.003 


0.001 
0.001 


0.542 
0.456 


0.044 
0.063 


35-64 
65-94 


multivariate' 
multivariate 


0.015 
0.016 


0.002 
0.003 ' 


0.001 
0.001 


0.298 
0.375 


0.048 
0.067 



SEX> FEMALE 

EVENT: CORONARY HEART DISEASE OTHER THAN ANGINA PECTORIS 
RISK FACTOR: SYSTOLIC BLOOD PRESSURE, FIRST EXAMINER (MM HG) 
PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



nsK 

■ACTOR 

74-119 
120-139 
140-159 
160-179 
180-300 

lUNKNOWH 
jTOTAL 



ISK 
ACTOR 

74-1 19 
120-139 
140-159 
160-179 
180-300 

UNKNOHN 
TOTAL 



35-44 AT EXAM 
PERSOM I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

2493 
2244 

673 

156 
50 


56 16 



75-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



133 
465 
626 
451 

276 



1951 



3 
10 
10 
19 
13 


55 



8 

21 
24 



45-54 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


AT EXAM 
• OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


55-64 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


AT EXAM 
1 OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


65-7fl 

PERSON 
EXAMS 


AT EXAM 
t OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


27 14 

3982 

2053 

763 

442 


4 

12. 

13 

2 

1 




1 
2 
5 
I 
I 


1979 
4056 
3025 
1560 
893 


8 
23 
32 
22 
23 


2 

3 
5 
7 
13 


647 
1747 
2013 

1155 
686 


7 
19 
33 
15 
23 


5 
5 
8 
6 
20 



9959 



32 




2 



11513 



108 


5 



6248 


■ 
102 


8 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON i OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



8 

38 
29 
31 
17 



SS-64 COMBINED 
I OF AOE- 

EVEHTS CRUOe ADJUSTED 




123 









3 


39 


4 


69 


I 


16 


1 


29 





. 


9 


37 



12 
36 
45 
24 

25 


142 



65-94 COMBINED 
* OF AOE- 

EVEMTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 

6 

7 

9 

10 

21 



10 


6 


32 


7 


47 


- 9 


35 


1 1 


42 


21 


0'^ 


. 


66 


10 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


35-44 














45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 




0.011 
0.019 
0.0!5 
0.011 
-0.003 


0.006 
0.003 
0.004 
0.005 
0.014 


094 

0. 00 1 
0.001 
0. 033 
0.356 


0.246 
0.457 
0.374 
0.268 
-0.064 


0. 147 
0.076 
0.089 
0. 126 
0.352 


35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.022- 
0.0 14. 


0.002 
0.003 


0.001 • 
0.001 


0.514 
0.337 


0.059 
0.071 


35-64 
65-94 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.017 
0.013 


0.003 
0.003 


0.001 
. 001 


0.390 
0.312 


0.065 
0.07 1 


35-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.015 
0.009 


0.003 
0.003 


0.001 
0.003 


0.360 

0.224 


0.071 
0.074 



c 



46 - 



TABLE 2-2 DATE=02APR8 5 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
BY AGE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAM' FRAMINGHAM STUDY JO-YEAR FOLLOIIUP 

SEXi HALE 

EVENT: CORONARY HEART DISEASE OTHER THAN ANGINA PECTORIS 
RISK FACTOR: DIASTOLIC BLOOD PRESSURE. FIRST EXAMINER (MM HG) 
PERSONS AT risk; PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 

FACTOR 



JS-t"* AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



OS-SI AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



55-6<S AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



65-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



20-74 
75-84 
85-94 
95-104 
105-160 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



RISK 

FACTOR 



1012 


2 


1 


1604 


12 


4 


1 IS7 


9 


4 


499. 


10 


10 


170 


1 


3 








_ 


4472 


34 


4 



1478 
2766 
2062 
1003 
4 10 


7724 



15 5 

34 b 

33 9 

20 10 

14 17 



121 8 



75-84 AT EXAM S5-9H AT EXAM 

PERSON I OF ANNUAL PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1847 


34 


9 


2345 


55 


10 


1964 


6 1 


16 


932 


27 


14 


4 1 1 


21 


26 








- 


3049 


198 


12 



5S-4A COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



1225 


36 


15 


1323 


39 


15 


393 


29 


16 


343 


24 


35 


129 


10 


39 








_ 


3913 


138 


18 



65-94 COMBINED 
« OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



20-74 
75-84 
85-94 
95-104 
105-160 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



422 


17 


20 


331 


18 


27 


204 


12 


29 


44 


4 


45 


16 


3 


94 








- 


1017 


54 


27 



22 

12 

5 





39 



51 


6 


6 


55 


16 


16 


10 1 


7 


7 


57 


17 


17 


108 


10 


1 1 


42 


19 


19 


57 


1 I 


12 


23 


36 


37 


36 


IS 


17 


13 


45 


50 





_ 







_ 




353 


9 


9 


195 


20 


20 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIEIIT 


STO 
SE 


35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-34 
85-94 




0.039 
0.026 
0.025 
0.0Z5 
0.024 ■ 


0.013 
0.007 
0. 005 
0. 007 
0.0 12 


0.004 
0.00 1 
0.001 
0.00 1 
0.036 


0.440 
0.308 
. 298 
0.307 
0.287 


0. 151 
0.084 
0.066 
0.079 
0. 137 


35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.027 
0.022' 


0.004 
0.006 


0.001 
0.001 


0.320 
0.270 


0.049 
0.068 


35-64 
65-94 


BIVARIATE 
DIVARIATE 


0.027 
0.026 


0.004 
0.006 


0.001 
0.001 


0.315 
0.320 


0.043 
0.069 


'35-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.024 
0.021 


0.004 
0.006 


0.001 • 
0.001 


0.288 
0.257 


0.051 
0.070 



SEX: FEMALE 

EVENT: CORONARY HEART DISEASE OTHER THAN ANGINA PECTORIS 
RISK FACTOR: DIASTOLIC BLOOD PRESSURE, FIRST EXAMINER (riM HG) 
PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 
FACTOR 

20-7<i 
75-84 

85-94 

95-104 

105-160 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



35-44 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

2164 
2030 

987 

324 

111 


56 16 



45-54 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



2639 

3541 

236 1 

926 

492 


9959 



6 
7- 
14 




32 



55-64 AT EXAM 65-74 AT EXAM 

PERSON I OF ANNUAL PERSON I OF ANNUAL 

EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



2969 


17 


3853 


23 


2340 


31 


1272 


20 


579 


12 








nsij 


^a6 



1831 
2135 
1439 
600 
243 


6248 



30 
30 

23 
9 
10 


102 



3 
21 



. 75-84 AT EXAM 
RISK PERSON « OF ANNUAL 

FACTOR EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



85-9<» AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



35-64 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



65-94 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



20-74 
75-84 
85-94 
95-104 
105-160 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



724 


21 


15 


596 


17 


14 


443 


1 1 


12 


146 


4 


14 


42 


2 


24 








_ 


951 


5S 


14 



53 

43 
20 

7 


■ 
123 



4 


38 


3 


35 


2 


50 











- 





. 


9 


J7 



24 

35 

45 
22 
16 


142 



55 
50 
36 
13 

12 


166 



II 
9 
9 
9 

21 



10 
9 

10 
9 

21 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AOE AT 

EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 

COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


3J-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 




0.023 

0.031 

0.013 

-0.007 

.002 


0.013 
0.007 
0.008 
0.012 
0.029 


0.065 
0.001 
0. 103 
0.521 

0.955 


0.286 
0.383 
0. 156 
-0 .039 
0.0 19 


0. 155 
0.084 
0.096 
0. 139 
0.349 


35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.034 
0.003 ■ 


0.006 
0.006 


0.001 
0.644 


0.4 10 
0.036 


0.070 
0.078 


35-64 
65-94 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.029 

0.006 


0.006 
0.006 


0.001 
0.349 


0.356 
0.073 


0.073 
0.078 


35-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.026 
0.002 


0.006 
0.006 


0. 001 
0.7 13 


0.322 
0.029 


0.077 
0.077 



47 - 



TABLE 2-3A DATE=31AUC35 

AVERAGE AHNUAl INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
BY AGE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAM^ FRAnlNGHAM STUDY JO-YEAR FOLLOHUP 

SEX: MALE 

EVENT; CORONARY HEART DISEASE OTHER THAN ANGINA PECTORIS 
RISK FACTOR: HYPERTENSION WITH ANTIHYPERTENSIVE TREATMENT 
PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 
FACTOR 

NO 

BORDER 
DEFINITE 
TREATED 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



35-<i'4 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



2651 

1301 

500 

20 




<t«72 



15 


J 


9 


3 


9 


9 


1 


25 





- 


3<i 


<i 



45-5^ AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



4122 

2205 

1 139 

258 


42 
36 
32 
1 1 


5 

3 

14 

21 



7724 




121 


5 



55-64 AT EXAM 65-74 AT EXAM 

PERSON I OF ANNUAL PERSON « OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



3752 


56 


7 


2299 


74 


16 


1266 


43 


17 


702 


25 


13 








_ 


8049 


198 


12 



1516 


21 


7 


1252 


49 


20 


552 


32 


29 


595 


36 


30 








, 


39t3 


138 


IS 



RISK 
FACTOR 

NO 

BORDER 
DEFINITE 
TREATED 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



75-84 AT E^AM 85-94 AT EXAM 

PERSON t OF ANNUAL PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

IS 
t1 
3 

7 


39 



37 J 


12 


16 


333 


15 


23 


123 


9 


37 


188 


13 


48 








_ 


10 17 


54 


27 



35-64 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



1 13 
1 19 
34 
37 


353 



5 
10 
14 
19 



5 

10 
14 
21 



65-94 COMBINED 
t OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



33 
65 
42 
55 


195 



9 

20 
31 
35 



9 
21 
32 

34 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 

35-44 

i45-54 
;55-64 
165-74 
75-84 
185-94 

35-64 
65-94 

35-64 
65-94 

35-64 
65-94 



UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 



BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 



MULTIVARIATE 
HULTIVA-RIATE 



COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 

COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


0,590 
0.563 
0.424 
0.692 
0.547 


0.218 
0.111 
0.036 
0.113 
0. 179 


0.007 
0.001 
0.001 
0.001 
0.002 


0.409 
0,433 
0.345 
0.567 
0.447 


0. 151 
0.085 
0-070 
0.093 
0. 146 


0.544 
0.665 


0.065 
0.D95 


0.001 
0.001 


0.423 
0.544 


• 0.050 
0.078 


0.47O ' 
0.663 • 


O.OiS 
0.095 ■ 


O.OOI 
0.001 


0.366 
0.543 


0.051 
0.078 


0.425 
0.59 1 


0.068 
0.097 


0.001 

0.001 


0.331 

0.484 


0.053 
0.080 



SEX" FEMALE 

EVENT: CORONARY HEART DISEASE OTHER THAN ANGINA PECTORIS 
RISK FACTOR: HYPERTENSION WITH ANTIHYPERTENSIVE TREATMENT 
PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



35-44 AT EXAM 



RISK 

FACTOR 


PERSON 
EXAMS 


» OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


NO 

BORDER 

DEFINITE 

TREATED 


4250 

1001 

316 

49 




UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



56 16 




RISK 
FaCTOS 


75- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


84 AT EXAM 

1 OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


NO 

BORDER 
DEFINITE 
TREATED 


402 

575 
37 1 
603 


7 9 
12 10 
17 23 
19 16 


'unknown 

TOTAL 



1951 



55 14 



45-54 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



5622 

2579 

1 166 

592 


9959 



13 t 

13 5 

1 

5 4 



32 2 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



31 
28 
21 
43 


123 



32 
36 
24 
47 



55-64 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



4888 
3282 
1835 
1503 


1 1513 



19 
30 
33 
26 


108 



I OF 

EVENTS 

33 
45 
35 
31 


142 



35-64 COMBINED 



65-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1767 
1903 
1035 
1543 


6243 



CRUDE 

I 
3 
5 

7 



AGE- 
ADJUSTED 



19 
24 
16 
43 


102 



5 
6 
S 
14 



I OF 

EVENTS 

28 

38 

• 36 

66 


166 



65-94 COMBINED 



CRUDE 

6 
8 

12 
15 



AGE- 
ADJUSTED 

6 

7 

12 
15 



10 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 

COEFFICIENT 


P-VALU 


35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 




0.268 
0.747 
0.421 
,437 
0. 102 


0.216 
0. 125 
0. 132 
0.198 
0.423 


0.215 

0.001 
0,001 
0,027 
0,509 


35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.830 
0.437 


0, 102 
0. 106 


0.00 1 
0,001 


35-64 
65-94 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.599' 
0.397 • 


0. 105 
0. 106 


0,001 
001 


35-64 
1.5-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.560 
0.294 


0. 109 

0. 108 


0,001 
0, 006 



STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 



0.206 
0.624 
0.347 
344 
0.036 



653 
357 



475 
325 



444 
24 1 



STD 
SE 



0. 166 

0. 104 
0. 109 
0. 156 
0,355 



OS I 
087 



083 
087 



086 
085 



- 48 



TABLE 2-JB DATE=04DEC85 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
BY AGE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAM'. FRAMINGHAM STUDY 30-YEAR FOLLOWUP 

SEXi MALE 

EVENT: CORONARY HEART DISEASE OTHER THAN ANGINA PECTORIS 

RISK FACTOR: HYPERTENSION IGNORING TREATMENT 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



35-44 AT EXAM 



RISK 

FACTOR 


PERSON 
EXAMS 


» OF 

EVENTS 


ANNUAL 
RATE 


NO 

MILD- 

DEFINITE 


2653 

1310 

509 


15 

9 

10 


3 

5 

10 


UNXNOWN 
TOTAL 



4472 



34 


4 


RISK 
FACTOR 


75- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


84 AT EXAM 

t OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


NO 

MILD 
DEFINITE 


412 
418 
!87 


16 
19 ■ 

19 


19 
23 
51 


UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



1017 



54 


27 



45-54 AT EXAM 55-64 AT EXAM 

PERSON t OF ANNUAL PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



4154 
2234 
1286 


7724 



43 
40 
33 


121 



5 

9 
15 



3909 
2583 
1557 


8049 



60 
82 
56 


198 



3 
16 
13 



65-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



85-94 AT EXAM 35-64 COMBINED 

PERSON I OF ANNUAL » OF AGE- 

EXAMS EVENTS RATE EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



21 

15 

3 


39 



118 
131 

104 


353 



6 
11 
16 



6 
10 
15 



1631 

1499 

783 


3913 



27 
65 
.46 


138 



3 
22 
29 



65-94 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



43 
86 
66 


195 



10 
22 

34 



10 
22 
35 



20 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 




0.599 
0.534 
0.441 
0.622 
0.523 


0.218 
0.112 
0.089 
0.114 
0.187 


0.006 
.001 
0.001 
0.001 
0.005 


0.414 
0.402, 
0.340 
0.470 
0.384 


0.151 
0.085 
0.069 
0.086 
0.137 


35-64 
6S-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.532 
0.602 


a.oit 
a.09i 


0.001 
0.001 


0.399 
0.452 


0.050 
0.072 


35-64 
45-94 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.478 
0.611 - 


o.a«7 

0.09i 


0.001 

0.001 


0.359 
0.458 


0.050 
0.072 


35-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.422 • 
0.514 


0.070 
0.100 


0.001 
0.001 


0.516 
0.387 


0.053 
0.075 



SEX" FEMALE 

EVENT! CORONARY HEART DISEASE OTHER THAN ANGINA PECTORIS 

RISK FACTOR! HYPERTENSION IGNORING TREATMENT 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 

FACTOR 


PERSON 
EXAMS 


• OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


NO 

MILD 

DEFINITE 


4272 

1016 

328 




UNKNONN 
TOTAL 



5414 




RISK 
FACTOR 


75- 
PERSQN 
EXAMS 


84 AT EXAM 

t OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


NO 

MILD 
DEFINITE 


507 
827 
617 


9 9" 
18 11 
28 23 


UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



19SI 



55 14 



45-54 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



5804 
2763 
1392 


9959 



13 

15 

4 


32 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



37 
45 
41 




123 



2 


27 


5 


54 


2 


24 





_ 


9 


37 



55-64 AT EXAM 65-74 AT EXAM 

PERSON t OF ANNUAL PERSON « OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



5245 26 2 

3860 42 5 

2408 40 8 



2035 21 

2549 42 

1664 39 




11513 




108 



35-64 COMBINED 
♦ OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



40 
57 
45 


142 



5 

8 

12 




6248 




102 



65-94 COMBINED 
» OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



32 
65 
69 


166 



6 
10 
t5 



6 
10 
14 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 

SE 


35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
35-94 




0.284 
0.597 
0.410 
0.546 
-0.055 


0.224 
0. 121 
0.132 
0.193 
0.435 


0.209 
0.001 
0.002 
O.OOS 
0.899 


0.204 
0.464 
0.314 
0.414 
-0.044 


0.144 
0.094 
0. 101 
0.144 
0.347 


35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.713 
0.447 


0.103 

0.105 


0. 001 
0.001 


0.527 
0.343 


0.074 
0.081 


35-64 
65-94 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.504 
0.418 - 


0.104 
0.104 


0.001 
0.001 


0.373 
0.321 


0.078 
0.081 


35-64 
45-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.452' 
0.313 


0.110 
0.108 


0.001 
.003 


0.335 
0.244 


0.032 
0.083 



- 49 



TABLE 2-4 



DATE=02APP.85 



AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RIS< AT EXAM 
BY AGE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXA«: FRAMINGHAM STUDY JO-YEAR FOLLOHUP 



RISK 
FACTOR 



SEX: MALE 

EVENT: CORONARY HEART DISEASE OTHER THAN ANGINA PECTORIS 

RISK FACTOR: SERUM CHOLESTEROL 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



35-<i'( AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



45-51 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



55-6"* AT EXAM 65-7<i AT EXAM 

PERSON I OF ANNUAL PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



c 



!'*-20'i 
205-23'4 
2J5-26:; 
265-291 
295-1 121 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



125J 
1217 
872 
175 
29 1 • 

3J1 
1172 



J 

6 
10 
■7 

i 

Z 

34 



2 
6 
7 
10 

3 

1 



1747 


19 


5 


2306 


32 


7 


1715 


21 


7 


1001 


20 


10 


557 


23 


21 


318 


3 


1 


7721 


121 


S 



2255 

2105 

1389 

918 

151 

128 
8019 



37 
66 
50 
23 



1 
198 



11 
13 
13 
20 

16 
12 



1231 


11 


18 


117 1 


39 


17 


373 


30 


17 


128 


16 


19 


191 


8 


21 


16 


1 


31 


3913 


138 


18 



75-81 AT EXAM 
RISK PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
FACTOR EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



85-91 AT EXAM 
PERSON < OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



55-61 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



65-91 COMBINED 
t OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



81-204 
205-231 
235-261 
265-291 
295-t 121 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



390 
332 

177 
96 
22 


1017 



19 

19 
1 1 
3 
2 


51 



21 

29 
31 
16 
15 



17 
I I 
5 
6 




59 


6 


5 


61 


20 


19 


101 


9 


9 


59 


19 


20 


84 


9 


9 


12 


20 


21 


50 


10 


1 1 


19 


18 


18 


17 


18 


13 


10 


23 


26 


9 


6 


9 


1 


31 


21 


553 


9 


9 


195 


20 


20 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



:AGE AT 
'EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


35-11 

15-51 
55-61 
65-71 
75-81 




0.01 1 
0.009 
0.001 
0.001 
0.003 


0.003 
0.002 
0.002 
0.002 
0.001 


0.001 
0.00 1 
0.008 
0.79 1 
0. 39 1 




0.509 
0.381 
0. 182 
0.023 
0. 1 18 


0. 121 
0.073 
0.069 
0.037 
0. 138 


85-91 
















55-61 
45-91 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.007 . 
0.001 


0.001 
0.002 


o.oot 

0.639 




0.295 
0.031 


0.017 
0.O73 


35-61 
65-91 


flIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.007 
0.001 


0.001 
0.002 


0.001 
0.119 




0.315 

0.059 


0.018 
0.873 


55-61 
65-91 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.007 
0.001 


0.001 
0.002 


0.001 
0.126 




0.281 
0.058 


0.018 
0.073 



SEX: FEMALE 

EVENT: CORONARY HEART DISEASE OTHER THAN ANGINA PECTORIS 

RISK FACTOR: SERUM CHOLESTEROL 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



35-11 AT EXAM 
RISK PERSON • OF ANNUAL 

FACTOR EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



15-51 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF" ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



53-«<> AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



<J-71 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF AUNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



81-201 
205-231 
235-261 
265-291 
:95- 1 121 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL . 



2350 

11 17 

806 

372 

17 1 

500 
56 16 



2091 
2558 
2259 
1173 
110 1 


2 

7 
1 
6 
10 



I 

1 

5 


1625 
26 15 
2933 
2210 
1866 


1 1 
19 
13 
33 

27 


3 
1 
3 

7 
7 


789 
1101 
1703 
1287 
1031 


5 
19 
27 
22 
28 


3 

7 
3 
9 
11 


171 
9959 


3 

32 


3 
2 


229 
11513 



103 




5 


37 • 
6218 


1 
102 


11 
8 



RISK 
FACTOR 



7 5-81 AT EXAM. 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



85-9<l AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF AHllUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RITE 



35-41 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



65-91 COMBINED 
• OF ACE- 

EVENTS' CRUDE ADJUSTEir 



81-201 
205-231 
235-261 
265-291 
295-1 121 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



36 1 
184 
512 

350 
205 

7 
1951 



9 
15 
17 
9 
5 


55 



12 
15 
14 
13 
12 


11 



14 

28 

35 

9 

5 


123 



3 


33 


2 


34 


2 


29 


2 


111 











_ 


9 


37 



IS 
24 
23 
39 
38 

3 
112 



17 
34 
44 
33 
33 



7 

9 

10 

10 

13 

1 1 
10 



9 

10 

I 1 ■ 
13 

I I 
10 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT . 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


35-11 














'■5-51 
55-41 
65-71 
75-31 
35-91 




0.007 
0.007 
0.003 
0.000 
0.002 


0.002 
0.002 
0.002 
0.003 
0.008 


n on 1 
0,001 
.001 
.958 
0.312 


0.332 
0.310 
0.355 
0.007 
0.082 


091 
,086 
0.091 
0. 137 
0.311 


35-61 
65-91 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.0 10 
0.001 • 


0.001 
0.002 


0,001 
0,019 


0.118 
0.180 


0.069 

0,076 


35-61 
05-91 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.007 ' 
0.005 


0.001 
0.002 


0.00 1 
0.002 


0.319 
0.233 


0,043 
0,077 


35-61 
65-91 


MULTIVARIATE 
tlULTIVARIATE 


0.007 
0.005 


0.001 
0.002 


0.001 
0,002 


0.311 
0.212 


0.043 
0, 078 



e 



50 - 



TABLE 2-5 DATE=04DEC55 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
BY AGE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAM: FRAMINGHAM STUDY 30-YEAR FOLLOUUP 

SEX! MALE 

EVENT- CORONARY HEART DISEASE OTHER THAN ANGINA PECTORIS 

RISK FACTOR; HEMATOCRIT 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 
FACTOR 

25-42 
43-44 
45-46 
47-48 
49-70 

UNKNOMN 
TOTAL 



35-44 AT EXAM 45-54 AT EXAM 55-64 AT EXAM 65-74 AT EXAM 

PERSON » OF ANNUAL PERSON I OF ANNUAL PERSON t OF ANNUAL PERSON J OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



623 
546 
983 
775 
1 175 

370 
4472 



2 

34 



.94 2 
967 
1354 
1510 
2066 


8 
14 
29 
27 
39 


4 
7 
8 
9 
9 


385 
7724 


4 
121 


5 
8 



1018 
985 
1953 
1 599 
2338 

156 
8049 



26 
20 
47 
34 
67 

4 
198 



13 
10 
12 
1 1 
14 

13 
12 



450 


13 


14 


493 


16 


16 


963 


31 


16 


861 


25 


15 


1127 


52 


23 


19 


1 


26 


3913 


138 


18 



RISK 
FACTOR 

25-42 

43-44 
45-46 
47-48 
49-70 

UNKNOHN 
TOTAL 



75-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



214 
1 19 
240 
197 
247 


1017 



14 
9 
10 
10 
11 


54 



33 
38 
21 
25 
22 



27 



8 5-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

16 

5 
7 

7 
4 


39 



35-64 COMBINED 
» OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



65-94 COMBINED 
♦ OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



11 




8 


28 


21 


18 


34 




7 


25 


20 


21 


79 




8 


42 


17 


17 


65 




8 


35 


16 


17 


124 


11 


11 


64 


23 


24 


10 




8 


1 


26 


21 


S53 




9 


195 


20 


20 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AOE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 

COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 




0.116 
0.053 
0.027 
0.053 
-0.021 


0.049 
0.026 
0.019 
0.024 
0.033 


0.017 
0.043 
0.160 
0.027 
0.532 


0.426 
0. 188 
0.103 
0. 195 
-0.086 


0.179 
0.093 
0.073 
0.088 
0.139 


35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.045- 
■0.023, 


0.015 
0.019 


0.003 
0.231 


0.164 
0.089 


0.055 
0.074 


35-64 
65-94 


8IVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.043 
0.032 


0.015 
0.019 


0.004 
0.096 


0.158 
0.123 


0.055 
0.074 


35-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.017 
0.024 


0.015 
0.020 


0.264 
0.228 


0.062 
0.091 


0.055 
0.076 



SEX! FEMALE 

EVENT: CORONARY HEART DISEASE OTHER THAN ANGINA PECTORIS 

RISK FACTOR: HEMATOCRIT 

PERSONS AT RISK' PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 
FACTOR 


35- 

PERSON 
EXAMS 


44 AT EXAM 

t OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


45- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


54 AT EXAM 

1 OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


55- 

PERSON 
EXAMS 


64 AT EXAM 

f OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


65-7< 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


AT EXAM 
> OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


21-59 
40-41 
42-43 
44-45 
46-6 5 


1697 
967 

1043 
856 
487 




1843 
1741 
1955 
2194 
1681 


3 
2 
6 
8 
10 


1 
1 
2 
2 

3 


1553 
2061 
2260 
2847 
2521 


14 
IS 
18 
23 
34 




6 46 
1069 
1256 
1609 
1626 


12 
12 
16 
28 
33 


9 

6 

6 

9 

10 


UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 


566 
S616 




545 
9959 


3 
52 


3 
2 


271 
11513 


1 
108 


2 

5 


42 
6248 


1 
102 


12 

a 


RISK 
FACTOR 


75- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


84 AT EXAM 

» OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


85- 

PERSON 
EXAMS 


94 AT EXAM 

f OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


35-64 COMBINED 65- 
t OF AGE- • OF 
EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED EVENTS 


■94 COMBINED 

AGE- 
CRUDE ADJUST 


21-39 
40-41 
42-43 
44-45 
46-65 


297 
373 
353 

486 
436 


10 17 

13 17 

6 8 

9 9 
17 19 


24 
31 
19 
26 
23 


3 
2 

3 
1 



63 
32 
79 
19 




18 
20 
24 
52 
44 


2 

2 
2 

3 
5 


2 
2 

2 

3 
4 


25 
27 
25 
38 
50 


13 
9 

8 

9 

12 


12 
9 

8 

9 

12 


UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 


6 
1951 



55 14 



123 



9 


37 


4 
142 


1 

3 


2 
3 


1 
166 


10 

10 


9 
10- 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


35-44 














45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 




0.135 

0.056 

0.049 

-0.009 

-0.158 


0.053 
0.028 
0.029 
0.035 
0.092 


0.011 
0.049 
0.093 
0.806 
0.085 


0.480 

0.193 

0.171 

-O.033 

-0.631 


0. 190 
0.098 
. 1 02 
0.1 36 
0.366 


35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.102 - 
0.007 


0.024 
0.022 


O.OOI 
0.748 


0.367 
0.025 ' 


0.087 
0.079 


35-64 
65-94 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.065 
0.014 


0.025 
0.022 


0.009 
0.517 


0.233 

0.051 


0.089 
0.078 


35-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.018 
0.010 


0.024 
0.022 


0.452 
0.6 56 


0.066 
0.035 


0.083 
,0.078 



51 



TABLE 2-6 DATE=04DEC55 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
BY AGE AMD LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAM> FRAMINGHAM STUDY JO-YEAR FOLLOWUP 

SEX: MALE 

EVENT: CORONARY HEART DISEASE OTHER THAN ANGINA PECTORIS 

RISK FACTOR: BLOOD GLUCOSE CMG^DLJ 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



J5-44 AT EXAM 



RISK 

FACTOR 


PERSON 
EXAMS 


» OF 
EVENTS 


ANNUAL 
RATE 


29-69 

70-89 

90-109 

1 10-129 

1J0-524 


992 

2501 

626 

105 

48 


7 
19 
5 
1 



4 
4 

4 
5 



UNKNOMN 
TOTAL 


200 
4472 


2 
34 


5 
4 


RISK 
FACTOR 


75- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


84 AT EXAM 

1 OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


29-69 

70-89 

90-109 

110-129 

1 JO-524 


62 
377 
328 
125 
125 


4 

21 

18 

5 

6 


32 

28 
27 
20 
24 


UNKNOMN 
TOTAL 



1017 



54 


27 



45-54 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1490 

4172 

1 343 

305 

193 

216 

7724 



24 
50 
24 
1 1 
9 

3 
121 



8 

6 

9 

18 

23 

7 
3 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON » OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

1 
11 
14 

4 

9 


39 



55-64 AT EXAM 65-74 AT EXAM 

PERSON I OF ANNUAL PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1087 

4056 

1866 

537 

408 

95 
8049 



23 

103 

46 

14 

9 

3 

198 



1 1 
1 3 
12 
13 
1 1 

16 
12 



421 


7 


8 


1761 


61 


17 


1046 


36 


17 


335 


15 


22 


334 


18 


27 


16 


1 


31 


3913 


138 


18 



35-64 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



65-94 COMBINED 
» OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



( 



54 




3 


1 1 


1 1 


13 


172 




8 


82 


19 


19 


75 


10 


9 


55 


20 


19 


26 


14 


13 


20 


22 


22 


IS 


14 


13 


26 


28 


27 


8 




10 


1 


31 


25 


353 




9 


195 


20 


20 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIE.'IT 


STD 
SE 


35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 




-0.001 

0.008 

-0.000 

o.ao6 

0.000 


0.01 1 
0.002 
0.003 
0.002 
0.004 


0.931 
0.001 
0.979 
0.001 
0.993 


-0.016 
0.185 

-0.002 
0.216 
0,001 


0.185 
0.052 
0.073 
0.057 
0. 140 


55-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.005- 
0.006 . 


0.002 
9.002 


0.002 
O.OOI 


0.121 
0.192 


0.039 
0.052 


1 35-64 
1 65-94 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIAIE 


0.003 
0.005 


0.002 
0.002 


0.100 
0.001 


0.071 
0.133 


0.043 
0.053 


35-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.003 
0.005 


0.002 
0.002 


0.141 
0.004 


0.063 
0. 157 


0.043 
0.055 



SEXi FEMALE 

EVENT: CORONARY HEART DISEASE OTHER THAN ANGINA PECTORIS 

RISK FACTOR: BLOOD GLUCOSE (MG/DL) 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 
FACTOR 

29-69 

70-39 

90-109 

1 10-129 

1 30-524 

UNKNOMN 
TOTAL 



35-44 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

1066 

3412 

672 

96 

39 

331 
5616 



45-54 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



55-64 AT EXAM 6 5-74 AT EXAM 

PERSON I OF ANNUAL PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1797 


5 


1 


1369 


17 


6 


521 


9 


9 


5744 


1 5 


1 


6093 


46 


4 


3102 


44 


7 


1625 


2 


1 


2712 


23 


4 


1732 


31 


9 


301 


1 


2 


730 


11 


8 


501 


3 


3 


159 


6 


19 


438 


10 


1 1 


36 


14 


19 


333 


3 


5 


166 


1 


3 


32 


1 


16 


9959 


32 


2 


11513 


108 


5 


6243 


102 


8 



RISK 

FACTOR 

29-69 

70-89 

90-109 

1 10-129 

130-524 

UNKNOHN 
TOTAL 



7 5-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



105 
823 
640 
219 
163 

I 
1951 



5 

20 
10 
10 
10 


55 



24 
12 
3 
23 
3t 


14 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



3 
44 
51 

13 
12 




123 









3 


34 


3 


29 


1 


38 


2 


83 





. 


9 


37 



55-64 COMSINEO 
• OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



22 
63 
25 
12 

16 

4 
142 



3 
2 
2 

5 
13 

2 

3 



3 
2 
2 
4 
12 

5 
3 



65-94 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



14 
67 
44 
14 
26 

1 
166 



11 

3 

9 

10 

24 

15 
10 



12 

9 

9 

3 

23 

12 

10 



AOE AT 
EXAM 

33-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
55-94 

35-64 
65-94 

35-64 
65-94 

35-64 
65-94 



UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 



BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 



COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 



MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 



015 
009 
003 
009 
002 

012 • 
009 . 

010 
008 

008 
003 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 
P-VALUE 



SE 

COEFFICIENT 



0.003 
0.002 
0.002 
0.002 
0.008 



002 
001 



002 
002 



002 
002 



0.001 
0.001 
0.001 

0.001 
0.808 

0.001 
0.001 

0.001 
0.001 

0.001 
0.001 



STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 



0.290 
0.234 
0.239 
0.294 
0.075 



269 
26 5 



214 
246 



175 
229 



STD 
SE 



069 
050 
059 
074 
308 

035 
044 

039 
045 

039 
046 



c 



52 - 



TABLE 2-7 DATE=0<iDEC85 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
BY AOE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAMi FRAMINGHAM STUDY JO-YEAR FOLLOKUP 

SEX: MALE 

EVENT: CORONARY HEART DISEASE OTHER THAN ANGINA PECTORIS 

RISK FACTOR: DIABETES MELLITUS 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 
FACTOR 



NO 
YES 



UNKNOWN . 
TOTAL 



RISK 
FACTOR 



NO 
YES 



UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



AGE AT 
EXAM 

35-<i<i 

45-5<« 
55-64 
65-74 
75-34 
55-94 

35-64 
45-94 

35-64 
45-94 

35-64 
65-94 



35-44 AT EXAM 
PERSON > OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



4424 
43 




447 2 



34 





34 



PERSON 
EXAMS 



7486 
233 




7724 



45-54 AT EXAM 



I OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 



1 1 4 

7 



55-64 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



65-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 




121 



7549 
500 




3049 



1SZ 
16 




198 



75-84 AT EXAM 85-94 AT EXAM 

PERSON f OF ANNUAL PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



900 
1 17 




1017 



49 

5 




54 



27 
21 



COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 



0.673 

0.291 

0.670 

-0.254 



UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 



BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 



MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 



0.558 
0.430 



0.315 
0.440 ' 



0.259 
0.428 



34 
5 


330 
Z3 



39 



353 


LOGISTIC 


REGRESSIONS 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


0.395 
0.265 
0.227 
0.480 


0. 089 
0.272 
0.005 
0.596 


0.219 
0.201 


0.011 
0.017 


0.221 
0.202 


0.154 
0.023 


0.225 

0.204 


0.250 
0.038 



35-64 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE 

i 

IS 







3504 
409 


1 13 
25 


16 
31 







3913 



138 


IS 


US1 


ED 


65- 
t OF 
EVENTS 


■94 COMBINED 

ACE- 
CRUDE ADJUSTED 


9 
12 




164 
31 


18 
29 


19 
29 


9 





195 


20 


20 



STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 



0.1 16 

0.070 

0.205 

-0.031 



0.108 
0.143 



0.061 
0.142 



0.050 
0.132 



STD 
SE 



0.068 
0.064 
0.070 
0.153 



0.042 
0.042 



0.043 
0.042 



0.044 
0.064 



SEX: FEMALE 

EVENT: CORONARY HEART DISEASE OTHER THAN ANGINA PECTORIS 

RISK FACTOR: DIABETES MELLITUS 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 
FACTOR 



NO 
YES 



UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



35-44 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

5573 
43 




5616 



45-54 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



55-64 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



65-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



9760 
199 


27 

5 


1 
13 


10985 
528 


94 

14 


4 
13 


5780 
468 


84 
18 


7 
19 



9959 



32 


2 



11513 



108 


5 



6243 



102 


8 



RISK 
FACTOR 



NO 
YES 



UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



AGE AT 
EXAM 

S5-W 

*5-5* 
S5-64 
45-74 
75-84 
«5-94 

55-64 
65-94 

35-64 
45-94 

35-64 
45-94 



7 5-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1738 
213 




1951 



UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 



BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 



42 
13 




55 



12 
31 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON » OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



35-44 COMBINED 
« OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 



2.229 

1 . 149 
0.998 
0.965 
0.634 



MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 



.745 
.023 



353 
954 ■ 



082 
817 



104 7 

17 2 


33 
59 


122 
20 



1Z3 9 


37 



142 


LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 




P-VALUE 


0.492 
0.290 
0.264 
0.326 
0.348 




0. 001 
0.001 
.001 
0,003 
0.455 


0.244 
0.199 




0.001 
0. 001 


0.247 
0.200 




0.001 
0.001 


0.253 
0.207 




0. 001 
0.001 



2 
13 



2 

13 



45-94 COMBINED 
I OF ACE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



133 
33 



0. 
144 



STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 



0.312 
0.Z40 
0.263 
0.301 
0.220 



290 
285 



225 
264 



180 
227 



9 
24 



STD 
SE 



049 
061 
070 
1 02 
294 



0.041 
0.055 



0.041 
0.055 



0.042 
0.057 



9 
22 



53 - 



RISK 
FACTOR 



NO 
YES 



UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



TABLE 2-S OATE = 0<iDECJ5 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
BY AGE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAM: FRAMIHGHAM STUDY 30-YEAR FOLLOWUP 

SEX: MALE 

EVENT: CORONARY HEART DISEASE OTHER THAN ANGINA PECTORIS 
RISK FACTOR: GLUCOSE IN URINE, DEFINITE OR TRACE 
PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



Z5-<<'> AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



4380 
60 



32- 



31 





3:< 



45- 

RSON 
AMS 


5'i AT EXAM 

1 OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


55- 

PERSON 
EXAMS 


61 


AT EX 
1 OF 
EVENTS 


IM 
ANNUAL 
RATE 


65- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


71 AT EXAM 

1 OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


7535 
16S 


113 
8 


7 
21 


7815 
210 




183 
11 


12 
33 


3767 
110 


122 

16 


16 
57 


21 
7721 



121 



8 


24 
8049 




1 
198 


21 
12 


6 
3913 



138 



18 



( 



RISK 

FACTOR 



NO 
YES 



UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



75-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



986 
28 



3 

1017 



51 
3 




54 



26 
54 




27 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON f OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

38 
1 




39 



35-64 COMBINED 
» OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



65-94 COMBINED 
t OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



JJO 

zz 


8 
ZS 


8 

22 


175 
20 


18 
59 


18 
60 


1 

353 


< 
9 


8 
9 



195 



20 


a 

20 



AGE AT 
EXAM 

35-41 
45-51 
55-64 
65-71 
75-81 
8 5-91 

35-61 
65-91 

35-61 
65-91 



UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 



BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 



COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 



1 .189 
1 .092 
1 .349 
0.'788 



35-64 MULTIVARIATE 
65-94 MULTIVARIATE 



1 .134 
1 .264 



1 .031 
I .296 ■ 



0.969 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 
P-VALUE 



SE 
COEFFICIENT 



0.374 
0.287 
0.281 
0.628 



0.226 
0.250 



0.227 
0.251 



0.236 
0.259 



0.001 
0.001 
0.001 
0.209 



0.001 
O.OOI 



0.001 
0.001 



0.001 
0.001 



STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 



0.174 
0.174 
0,251 
0. 129 



165 
229 



150 
235 



111 
214 



STD 
SE 



0.055 
0.046 
0. 052 
0. I 03 



0.033 
0.045 



0.033 
0.046 



0.034 
0.047 



SEX: FEMALE 

EVENT: CORONARY HEART DISEASE OTHER THAN ANGINA PECTORIS 
RISK FACTOR: GLUCOSE IN URINE, DEFINITE OR TRACE 
PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



35-44 AT EXAM 
RISK PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
FACTOR EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



45-54 AT EtAM 
PERSON ( OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



55-64 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



65-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON « OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



NO 
YES 



UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



5537 
41 



38 
5616 



9841 
94 


30 

2 


2 
11 


11346 
144 


102 

6 


4 
21 


6131 

107 


96 

6 


8 
28 


24 
9959 



32 



2 


23 
11513 



108 




5 


10 
6248 



102 



3 



RISK 
FACTOR 



NO 
YES 



UNKNOWN 

TOTAL 



AGE AT 
EXAM 

35-14 

45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 

35-64 
65-94 

35-64 
65-94 



75-84 AT EXAM 85-94 AT EXAM 35-61 COMBINED 

PERSON t OF ANNUAL PERSON I OF ANNUAL I OF AGE- 

EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



1919 
23 



9 
1951 



UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 



BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 



52 

3 




55 



14 
65 





14 



COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 



1 .961 

1 .567 
1 .318 
1 .684 
1 .946 



35-64 MULTIVARIATE 
65-94 MULTIVARIATE 



1 .897 
1 .129 



1 .773 
1 .167 ■ 



1 .408 
1 .216 



120 8 

3 1 


33 
167 


133 
9 



123 9 


37 


9 
142 


LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 




P-VALUE 


0.738 
0.129 
0.133 
0.635 
1 .278 




0.008 
0.001 
0.002 
0.008 
0.128 


0.350 
0.339 




0.001 
0.001 


0.353 
0.310 




0.001 
0.001 


0.564 
0.353 




0.001 
0.001 



2 

16 



2 
IS 



65-94 COMBINED 
» OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



156 

10 




166 



STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 



0.190 
0.174 
0.171 
0.182 
0.301 



192 
179 



179 
181 



112 
156 



10 
38 




10 



STD 

SE 



0.071 
0.048 
0.056 
0.069 
0.198 



035 
043 



036 
043 



037 
044 



to 




10 



c 



54 - 



TABLE 2-9 DATE=01MAR86 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISC AT EXAM 
BY AGE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAM" FRAMINGHAM STUDY JO-YEAR FOLLOWUP 

SEX! MALE 

EVENT: CORONARY HEART DISEASE OTHER THAN ANGINA PECTORIS 

RISK FACTOR: GLUCOSE INTOLERANCE 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 
FACTOR 



NO 
YES 



UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



35-44 AT EXAM 
PERSON ♦ OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



4335 
137 




4«72 



33 
1 




34 



45-54 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



55-64 AT EXAM 65-74 AT EXAM 

PERSON I OF ANNUAL PERSON < OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



7221 
SOi 


102 
19 


7 
19 


7145 
904 


173 
25 


12 
14 


3225 
685 


102 
36 


16 
26 



7724 



121 


« 



3049 



19S 


12 



3913 



13S 


18 



RISK 
FACTOR 



NO 
YES 



UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



7 5-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



802 
215 




1017 



45 
9 




54 



28 
21 



27 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

27 
12 




39 



SS-64 COMBINED 
• OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



65-94 COMBINED 

I OF • AGE- 
EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



308 
45 


8 

15 


8 
14 


148 

47 


18 
26 


18 
26 





9 


9 



195 


20 


20 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 




-O.042 
1 .008 
0.136 
0.531 

-0.308 


1.019 
0.254 
0.217 
0.199 
0.374 


0.967 
0.001 
0.529 

0.008 
0.410 


-0.007 
0.249 
0.043 
0.202 

-0.126 


■ 0.176 
0.063 
0.069 
0.075 
0.153 


35-44 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.5S4 
0.361 


0.162 
0.172 


0.001 
0.035 


0.1 55 

a.i4o 


0.043 
0.066 


S5-64 
65-94 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.38S 
0.324 


0.163 
0.172 


0.019 
0.060 


0.102 
0.1Z5 


0.043 
0.067 


S5-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.342 
0.272 


0.168 
0.175 


0.042 
0.119 


0.091 
0.105 


0.045 
0.068 



SE3t: FEMALE ' 

EVENT: CORONARY HEART DISEASE OTHER THAN ANGINA PECTORIS 

RISK FACTOR" GLUCOSE INTOLERANCE 

PERSONS AT RISK" PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



35-44 AT EXAM 



45-54 AT EXAM 



RISK 
FACTOR 


PERSON 

EXAMS 


• OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


PERSON 
EXAMS 


t OF 
EVENTS 


ANNUAL 
RATE 


PERSON 
EXAMS 


» OF 

EVENTS 


ANNUAL 
RATE 


PERSON 
EXAMS 


1 OF 

EVENTS 


ANNUAL 
RATE 


NO 
YES 


5522 
94 




9588 
371 


25 

7 


1 
9 


1050S 
1010 


89 
19 


4 
9 


5398 
850 


79 
23 


7 
14 


UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



5616 





4959 



32 


2 



11513 



108 


5 



6248 



102 


8 


RISK 
FACTOR 


75- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


84 AT EXAM 

• OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


85- 

PERSON 
EXAMS 


94 AT EXAM 

1 OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


35- 

t OF 
EVENTS 


64 COMBINED 65- 
AGE- • OF 
CRUDE ADJUSTED EVENTS 


■94 COMBINED 

AGE- 
CRUDE ADJUS 


NO 
YES 


1581 
170 


38 12 
17 23 


too 

23 


5 

4 


25 
87 


115 
27 


Z 
9 


2 
9 


122 

44 


9 

18 


9 
17 


UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



1951 



55 14 



123 



9 


37 



142 


3 


3 



V66 


10 


10 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
FXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STO 
SE 


35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 




1.996 
0.808 
0.627 
0.671 
1.386 


0.431 
0.255 
0.240 
0.298 
0.716 


0.001 
0.002 
0.009 
0.024 
0.053 


0.37 J 
0.229 
0.215 
0.26S 
0.543 


0.082 
0.072 
0.082 
0.117 
0.280 


35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


1 .419 
0.738 


0.216 
0.179 


0.001 
0.001 


0.322 
0.263 


0.049 
0.064 


35-64 
65-94 


BIVARIAtE 
BIVARIATE 


1 .023 
0.670 


0.218 
0.180 


0.001 
0.001 


0.232 
0.239 


0.050 
0.064 


35-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.889 
0.597 


0.222 
0.184 


0.001 
0.001 


0.202 
0.213 


0.050 
0.065 



55 - 



TABLE 2-10 DATE=04DECaS 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER lOOO PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
BY AGE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAM i FRAMINGHAM STUDY JO-YEAR FOLLOWUP 

SEX' MALE 

EVENT: CORONARY HEART DISEASE OTHER THAN ANGINA PECTORIS 
RISK FACTOR: METROPOLITAN RELATIVE HEIGHT (PERCENT) 
PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



( 



RISK 
FACTOR 

S'i-lO'i 
105-11'^ 
1 IS-IZ"! 
t25-15<i 
135-272 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



3S-«<i AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



723 


2 


1 


965 


7 


4 


1122 


7 


3 


915 


10 


5 


71*7 ■ 


3 


5 








_ 


4472 


34 


4 



45-54 AT EXAM 
PERSON » OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1131 
1540 
2037 
1645 
1370 

1 
7724 



9 
25 
33 

27 
27 


121 



4 
8 
3 
3 
10 



55-64 AT EXAM 65-74 AT EXAM 

PERSON • OF ANNUAL PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1155 
1655 
2175 
1674 
1389 

t 
3049 



32 
32 
49 
39 
46 


198 



14 
10 
II 
12 
17 


12 



636 


17 


12 


351 


24 


14 


1069 


42 


20 


766 


27 


15 


541 


28 


26 








. 


3913 


133 


13 



RISK 
FACTOR 

54-104 
105-1 14 
115-124 
125-134 
135-272 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



7 5-84 AT EXAM 85-94 AT EXAM 

PERSON I OF ANNUAL PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

18 

9 
12 






39 



224 


13 


29 


252 


13 


26 


296 


1 1 


19 


155 


9 


29 


90 


8 


44 








_ 


1017 


54 


27 



35-64 COMBINED 
t OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



. 65-94 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



43 


7 


7 


30 


16 


16 


64 


8 


8 


39 


13 


17 


«9 


8 


' 8 


54 


20 


20 


76 


9 


9 


36 


20 


20 


81 


12 


12 


36 


29 


29 


9 











_ 




IS3 


9 


9 


195 


20 


20 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT " 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


J5-4« 

55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 




0.016 
0.010 
0.005 
0.013 
0.006 


0.010 
0.005 
0.004 
0.0O5 
0.009 


0.116 
0.073 
0.253 
0,013 
0.491 


0.256 
0.156 
0.080 
0.208 
0.095 


0.163 
0.088 
0.071 
0.084 
0. 1 37 


35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.008 - 
0.010. 


0.003 
0.005 


0.014 
0.026 


0.129 
0.159 


0.052 
0.071 


35-64 
65-94 


BIVARIATE 
flIVARIATE 


0.008 
0.012 


0.003 
0.005 


0.016 
0.008 


0.127 
0.191 


0.053 
0.072 


35-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.005 
0.007 


0.003 
0.005 


0.138 
0.141 


0.081 
0.109 


0.055 
0.074 



(■ 



SEX I FEMALE 

EVENT: CORONARY HEART DISEASE OTHER THAN ANGINA PECTORIS 
RISK FACTOR: METROPOLITAN RELATIVE WEIGHT (PERCENT) 
PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 

FACTOR 

54-104 
105-1 14 
115-124 
125-134 
135-272 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



55-44 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

1694 
1430 
1 058 

566 

360 

3 

5616 



45-54 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



2095 
2331 
2107 
1372 
2054 


9959 



5 
7 
4 
3 
13 


32 



55-64 AT EXAM 65-74 AT EXAM 

PERSON I OF ANNUAL PERSON « OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



2045 
2409 
2479 
1743 
2837 


11513 



16 
18 
24 
14 
36 


108 



1216 
1145 
1395 
982 
1510 


6243 



19 
19 
16 
17 
31 

"0 
102 



8 

8 

6 

9 

10 



RISK 
FACTOR 

54-104 
105-114 
115-124 
125-134 
135-272 

UNKNOWN 

TOTAL 



7J-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNU4L 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



517 


10 


10 


37 5 


7 


9 


399 


IS 


23 


266 


10 


19 


394 


10 


15 








. 


1951 


55 


14 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



41 
28 
21 
16 
17 




123 





49 









71 




31 




29 





_ 


9 


37 



35-64 COMBINED 
t OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



22 

25 
28 
17 
SO 


142 



65-94 COMBINED 
t OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



33 

26 
37 
28 
42 


166 



9 

8 
-10 
II 
11 



10 



9 

3 

11 

11 

11 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 

EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VAlUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-34 
85-94 




0.017 
0.007 
0.008 
0,007 
-0.007 


0.006 
0.004 
0.004 
0.006 
0.013 


0.0O4 
0.066 
0.043 
0.259 
0.718 


0.J70 
0.161 
0.182 
0.147 
-0.I2S 


0.130 
0.087 
0.090 
0. 130 
0.354 


35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.013- 
0.006. 


0.003 
0.003 


0.001 
0.096 


0.276 
0.123 


0.069 
0.074 


35-64 
65-94 


SIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.010 
0.007 


0.003 
0.003 


0.003 
0.029 


0.212 
0.161 


0.072 
0.074 


35-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.006 
0.005 


0.004 
0.003 


0.095 
0.163 


0.131 
0. 106 


0.078 
0.076 



( 



56 



TABLE 2-11 DATE=04DEC!5 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
BY AGE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAM; FRAMINGMAM STUDY 30-YEAR FOLLOWUP 

SEXi MALE 

EVENT: CORONARY HEART DISEASE OTHER THAN ANGINA PECTORIS 
RISK FACTOR: VITAL CAPACITY - HEIGHT INDEX (ML/INCH) 
PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 
FACTOR 

S-44 
45-49 
50-54 
55-59 
60-35 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



35-44 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



26 9 


2 


4 


41 1 


2 


2 


747 








1022 • 


9 


4 


2010 


21 


5 


13 








4472 


34 


4 



45-54 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1062 
1125 
16 58 
1739 
2135 

5 
7724 



23 
21 
32 
21 
24 


121 



1 1 
9 

10 
6 
6 



s 



55- 


6 4 AT EXAM 


65- 


74 AT EXAM 


PERSON 


t OF 


ANNUAL 


PERSON 


» OF ANN 


EXAMS 


EVENTS 


RATE 


EXAMS 


EVENTS RAT 


2045 


64 


16 


1752 


64 18 


1480 


32 


1 1 


749 


36 24 


1835 


45 


12 


712 


21 15 


1416 


31 


1 1 


442 


8 9 


1255 


26 


10 


246 


8 16 


IS 








12 


1 42 


3049 


198 


12 


3913 


133 13 



RISK 
FACTOR 

8-44 
45-49 
50-54 
55-59 
60-85 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



7 5-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON « OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



649 


42 


32 


172 


2 


6 


97 


5 


26 


65 


5 


3S 


26 








8 








1017 


54 


27 



85-94 AT EXAM 35-64 COMBINED 

PERSON I OF ANNUAL I OF AGE- 

EXAMS EVENTS RATE EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 

24 
6 
7 
2 



39 



65-94 COMBINED 
f OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



89 


13 


11 


108 


22 


21 


55 


9 


8 


33 


20 


20 


77 


9 


9 


27 


17 


17 


«1 


7 


8 


13 


13 


15 


71 


7 


7 


3 


15 


13 


a 








1 


25 


33 


S53 


9 


9 


195 


20 


20 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 

COEFFICIENT 


35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
35-94 




0.014 
-0.024 
-0.015 
-0.015 
-0.027 


0.020 
0.010 
0.003 
0.009 
0.015 


35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


-0.026- 
-0.021 . 


0.005 
0.008 


35-64 
65-94 


8IVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


-0.012 
-0.016 


0.006 
0.003 


35-64 
55-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


-0.002 
-0.012 


0.006 
0.008 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 
P-VALUE 



487 
016 
042 
110 
070 



0.001 
0.005 



0.033 
0.035 



0.739 
0.122 



STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 

0.121 
-0.215 
-0.144 
-0.137 
-0.255 



-0.251 
-0.202 



-0.119 
-0.157 



-0.020 
-0.119 



STD 
SE 

0.175 
0.089 
0.071 
0.086 
0.141 



0.052 
0.073 



0.056 
0.075 



0.059 
0.077 



SEXi PEMALE 

EVENT' CORONARY HEART DISEASE OTHER THAN ANGINA PECTORIS 
RISK FACTOR! VITAL CAPACITY - HEIGHT INDEX (ML/INCH) 
PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 
FACTOR 

4-29 

30-34 
35-39 
40-44 
45-92 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



35-44 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

122 
289 

769 
1427 
2938 

21 
5616 



45-54 AT EXAM J5-64 AT EXAM 

PERSON • OF ANNUAL PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



65-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



534 

1217 
2077 
2804 
3310 


3 
5 
6 
10 
8 


3 
2 
1 
2 

1 


1461 
2418 
3048 
27 06 
1859 


24 
24 
25 
29 
6 


8 
5 

4 
5 
2 


1747 
1715 
1529 

354 
397 


. 45 
24 
14 
13 

6 


13 


17 
9959 



32 




2 


21 
11513 



108 




5 


6 
6248 


■ 
102 





RISK 
FACTOR 

4-29 
30-34 
35-39 
40-44 

45-92 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



75-84 AT EXAM 85-94 AT EXAM 

PERSON t OF ANNUAL PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



930 


28 


15 


569 


21 


18 


314 


6 


10 


111 








25 








2 








1951 


55 


14 



SO 
29 
13 

1 



123 



44 

34 







37 



35-64 COMBINED 
• OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



27 
29 
32 
39 
15 


142 



65-94 COMBINED 
• OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



80 

47 

20 

13 

6 

0- 
166 



15 

10 

5 

7 
7 


10 



14 

10 

6 

6 

6 


10 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


35-44. 














45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-S4 
85-94 




-0.031 
-0.041 
-0.032 
-0.039 
-0.069 


0.023 
0.012 
0.013 
0.019 
0.047 


0.192 
0.001 
0.016 
0.038 
0.147 


-0.226 
. -0.311 
-0.237 
-0.275 
-0.461 


0.173 
0.094 
0.098 
0.133 
0.313 


35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


-0.064, 
-0.045 


0.010 
0.010 


0.001 
0.001 


-0.505 
-0.335 


0.080 
0.076 


35-64 
65-94 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


-0.032 
-0.035 


0.01 I 
0.011 


0.004 
0.001 " 


-0.258 
-0.265 


0.083 
0.080 


35-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


-0.017 
-0.031 


0.012 
0.011 


0.153 
0.005 


-0.135 
-0.234 


0.094 
0.034 



57 



RISK 

FACTOR 

30-67 
68-75 
76-S3 
S4-9I 
92-220 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



TABLE 2-12 DATE=0<iDEC85 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
BY AGE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAM: FRAMINGHAM STUDY 30-YEAR FOLLOHUP 

SEXi MALE 

EVENT: CORONARY HEART DISEASE OTHER THAN ANGINA PECTORIS 

RISK FACTOR: HEART RATE (PER MINUTE) 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



35-41 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1284 


6 


2 


1492 


6 


2 


722 


7 


5 


579 


12 


10 


395 ■ 


3 


4 


a 





. 


4472 


34 


4 



45-54 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1949 


23 


6 


2490 


30 


6 


1 394 


21 


3 


1097 


25 


11 


794 


22 


14 








_ 


7724 


121 


8 



55-64 AT EXAM 
PERSON f OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



2309 
2490 
1374 
1064 
812 


8049 



41 
65 
33 
26 
33 


198 



9 
13 
12 
12 
20 



65-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON 9 OF iNHUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1 183 


36 


15 


1159 


27 


12 


624 


27 


22 


487 


23 


24 


460 


25 


27 








_ 


3913 


138 


18 



c 



RISK 
FACTOR 

30-67 
68-75 
76-53 
84-91 
92-220 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



7 5-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



301 
296 
192 
123 
105 


1017 



17 

16 

8 

7 

6 


54 



28 
27 
21 
28 
29 



27 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

11 
12 

10 
5 
1 


59 



35-64 COMBINED 
t OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



65-94 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



70 


6 


6 


53 


18 


18 


101 


3 


8 


44 


15 


15 


61 


9 


9 


35 


21 


21 


63 


11 


tl 


32 


26 


26 


53 


14 


14 


31 


27 


27 





_ 







_ 




353 


9 


9 


195 


20 


20 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


35-44 
45-54 
S5-64 
65-74 
75-34 
85-94 




0.031 
0.024 
0.017 
0.013 
0.001 


0.012 
0.007 
0.005 
0.006 
0.010 


0.009 
0.001 
0.001 
0.002 
0.8S8 


0.390 

0.300 
0.215 
0.250 
0.020 


0.150 
0.085 
0.067 
.079 
0.159 


35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.021 - 
0.014 , 


0.004 
0.005 


0.001 
0.005 


0.26 3 
0.193 


0,050 
0.068 


55-64 
65-94 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


»0.Q21 
0.014 


0.004 
0.005 


0.001 
0.005 


0.260 
0.194 


0.049 
0.068 


35-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.009 
0.012 


0. 004 
0.005 


0.029 
0.017 


0.116 
0.168 


0,053 
0.070 



SEXt FEMALE 

EVENT: CORONARY HEART DISEASE OTHER THAN ANGINA PECTORIS 

RISK FACTOR: HEART RATE (PER MINUTE) 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



35-44 AT EXAM 



RISK 

FACTOR 


PERSON 
EXAMS 


1 OF ANNUAL 

EVENTS RATE 


PERSON 
EXAMS 


50-67 
68-75 
76-85 
84-91 
92-220 


1092 

1803 

1051 

939 

751 




1897 
3244 
1911 
1604 
1505 


UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



5616 





9959 


RISK 
FACTOR 


75-34 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


AT EXAM 
» OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATI 


85 

PERSON 
EXAMS 


50-67 
68-75 

76-83 
84-91 
92-220 


360 
462 
428 
330 
371 


12 17 

9 10 

15 18 

7 11 
12 16 


26 
52 
24 
25 
18 


UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



1951 



55 14 



125 


AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


CO 


35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 




-0.015 

0.020 

0.001 

-0.004 

-0.008 




55-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.014 • 
-0.001 




35-64 
65-94 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.015 
-0.002 




55-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.002 
-0.006 





45-54 AT EXAM 

I OF ANNUAL 

EVENTS RATE 



55-64 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



8 

12 

4 

4 




32 



2305 
3468 
2551 
1730 
1609 


11513 



11 
29 
22 
24 
22 


108 



65-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON « OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1105 
1663 
1558 
1089 
1030 


6248 



21 
23 
14 
20 
19 

■ 
102 



10 
8 
5 

9 
9 



85-94 AT EXAM 35-64 COMBINED 

t OF ANNUAL I OF AGE- 

EVENTS RATE EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



19 
41 

27 
29 
26 


142 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 
P-VALUE 



4 


77 














4 


87 


1 


28 





_ 


9 


57 



SE 

COEFFICIENT 



0.01 5 
0.0O7 
0.008 
0.010 
0.026 



0.339 
0.003 
0.941 
0.692 
0.751 



006 
006 



006 
006 



007 
006 



025 
824 



031 
762 



777 
286 



65-94 COMBINED 
• OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



12 
9 
8 

11 
II 



37 


12 


37 


9 


29 


8 


51 


-11 


32 


1 1 





_ 


166 


10 



STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 



180 
251 
007 
055 
112 

174 
018 

165 
024 

024 
085 



STD 
SE 



.188 
0,085 
0.100 
0.140 
0.554 



078 
079 



077 
079 



085 
080 



c 



- 5ft - 



TABLE 2-13 DATE.02APR85 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVEMT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
BY AGE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAM: FRAMItlGHAM STUDY JO-YEAR FOLLOHUP 

SEX: MALE 

EVENT: CORONARY HEART DISEASE OTHER THAN ANGINA PECTORIS 
RISK FACTOR: CIGARETTES SMOKED (NUHBER PER DAY) 
PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



55-44 AT EXAM 
RISK PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
FACTOR EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



45-54 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



55-44 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVEHTS RATE 



65-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVEHTS RATE 



NONE 

I-iO 
1 1-20 
21-40 
4 1-90 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



I3S3 


4 


1 


433 • 


4 


5 


1485 


13 


4 


987 


10 


5 


158 


3 


9 


26 








4472 


54 


4 



3068 


27 


7 16 


10 


2051 


43 


1602 


35 


252 


4 


35 


Z 


7724 


121 



4295 


75 


9 


26 1 t 


88 


17 


769 


13 


3 


374 


13 


17 


1682 


60 


18 


526 


21 


20 


1 1 19 


39 


17 


369 


13 


18 


162 


3 


25 


27 


2 


37 


22 








6 


1 


53 


8049 


198 


12 


3913 


133 


18 



75-84 AT EXAM 
RISK PERSON f OF ANNUAL 
FACTOR EXAMS EVEHTS RATE 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



35-64 COMBINED 
t OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



65-94 COMBINED 
• OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



NONE 

1-10 
1 1-20 
21-40 
41-90 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



797 


46 


29 


92 


5 


27 


77 


1 


6 


46 


2 


22 


5 














_ 


1017 


54 


27 



27 
6 
5 




39 



109 


6 


5 


136 


20 


20 


27 


7 


7 


18 


19 


19 


1 16 


I 1 


12 


23 


19 


18 


84 


I 1 


12 


15 


18 


19 


15 


13 


15 


2 


31 


29 


2 


12 


1 1 


1 


83 


65 


353 


9 


9 


195 


20 


20 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 

COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 

COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


55-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 




0.028 
0.020 
0.022 
0.006 
-0.033 


0.011 
0.006 
0.004 
0.007 
0.023 


0.012 
0.001 
0.001 
0.400 
0. 146 


0.400 
0.294 
0.309 
0.069 
-0.299 


0. 159 
0.084 
0.061 
0.082 
0.205 


35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.018- 
-0.001. 


0.003 
0.007 


0.001 
0.859 


0.261 
-0.013 


0.044 
0.074 


35-64 
65-94 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.023 
0.002 


0.003 
0.007 


0.001 
0.790 


0.337 
0.020 


0.041 
0.074 


35-64 
65-94 


MIILTIVARTATF 
MULTXVAKIAI C 


0.025 
0.005 


0.003 
0.007 


0.001 

g.«.44 


0.366 
0.055 


a.a«s 

0.075 



SEX' FEMALE 

EVENT' CORONARY HEART DISEASE OTHER THAN ANGINA PECTORIS 
RISK FACTOR: CIGARETTES SMOKED (NUMBER PER DAY) 
PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 
FACTOR 

NONE 

1-10 
11-20 
21-40 
41-90 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



55-44 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 

EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

2582 

1314 

137 1 

298 

22 

29 
56 16 



45-54 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



5528 

1726 

2009 

«2Z 

J7 


14 
6 
8 

3 
1 


t 
2 
2 
2 
14 


37 
9959 



32 




2 



55-64 AT EXAM 

PERSON I OF ANNUAL 

EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

7595 55 4 

1566 20 6 

1696 22 6 

602 9 7 

16 2 63 



38 
I15I3 




108 



65-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



4863 
626 
568 
172 ' 



19 
6248 



79 
9 

13 



1 
102 



26 
8 



RISK 
FACTOR 

NONE 

1-tO 
1 1-20 
21-40 
41-90 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



75-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON * OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1710 


48 


14 


137 


4 


15 


84 


3 


IS 


16 














- 


4 








1951 


55 


14 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



117 

4 
2 




123 



38 






35-64 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



69 
26 

31 

13 

3 


142 



2 
3 
3 

4 

20 



3 



2 

3 

3 

4 

32 



3 



65-94 COMBINED 
t OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



136 

13 

16 





1 
166 



10 
8 

12 





22 

10 



10 
9 

12 




20 
10 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 




0.027 

0.029 

-0.003 

-0.003 


0.014 
0.008 
0.014 
0.028 


0.062 
0.001 
0.838 
0.915 


0.274 
0.272 

-0.021 
-0.015 


0. 147 
0.077 
0. 103 
0. 141 


85-94 




- 


- 


- 


— 


- 


35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.024 
-0.009 


0.007 
0.012 


0.001 
0.439 


0.242 
-0.067 


0.071 
0.086 


35-64 
65-94 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.032 
-0.002 


0.007 
0.012 


0.001 
0.351 


0.322 
-0.016 


0.069 
0.087 


55-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.036 
0.004 


0.007 
0.012 


0.001 
0.754 


0.3S4 
0.027 


0.069 
0.086 



59 



TABLE Z-fi DATE=0'iDEC55 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
BY AGE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAM: FRAMINGHAM STUDY JO-YEAR FOLLOWUP 

SEXi MALE 

EVENT- CORONARY HEART DISEASE OTHER THAN ANGINA PECTORIS 

RISK FACTOR: ALBUMIN IN URINE, DEFINITE 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



J5-«'4 AT EXAM 
RISK PERSON « OF ANNUAL 
FACTOR EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



«5-5<* AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



55-61 AT EXAM 
PERSON < OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



6 5-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



( 



NO 
YES 


1366 
70 


J4 




4 



7599 
99 


116 8 
5 25 


7838 
184 


191 
6 


12 

16 


J792 
1 15 


1 JO 17 
3 35 


UNXNOMN 

TOTAL 


36 
4472 



Jl 




4 


26 
7724 




121 a 


27 
8049 


1 
198 


19 
12 


6 
3913 



138 18 


RISK 
FACTOR 


75- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


84 AT EXAM 

1 OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


85- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


94 AT EXAM 

t OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


35- 

f OF 
EVENTS 


64 COMBINED 

AGE- 
CRUDE ADJUSTED 


65- 
♦ OF 
EVENTS 


■94 COMBINE 

A 
CRUDE A 


NO 
YES 


989 
25 


53 
1 


27' 
20 


32 

7 




341 
1 1 


9 

16 


9 
U 


186 
9 


19 
31 


UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 


J 
1017 



54 



27 



39 




1 
353 


6 
9 


7 
9 



195 



20 



AGE- 
ADJUSTED 



19 
31 




20 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-34 
35-94 




1 .233 

0.300 

0.745 

-0.J07 


a.4<s 

0.421 

■ 0.377 

1.030 


0.008 
0.477 
0.048 
0.766 


0.139 

0.045 

0.126 

-0.048 


0.053 
0.063 
0.064 
0.160 


J5-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.607 
0.484 


0.311 
0.352 


0.051 
0.169 


0.080 
0,082 


0.041 

o.a<o 


J5-64 
65-94 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.492 
0.456 - 


0.312 
0.353 


0.115 
0.196 


0.064 
0.077 


0.041 
' 0.060 


35-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


-0.060 ■ 
0.070 


0.335 
0.3i5 


0.857 
0.847 


-0.008 
0.012 


0.044 

a.o<2 



SEX: FEMALE 

EVENT: CORONARY HEART DISEASE OTHER THAN ANGINA PECTORIS 

RISK FACTOR: ALBUMIN IN URINE. DEFINITE 

PERSONS AT risk: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



r 



RISK 
FACTOR 


35- 

PERSON 
EXAMS 


44 AT EXAM 

• OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


45- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


54 AT EXAM 

t OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


55- 

PERSON 
EXAMS 


64 


AT EXAM 
« OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


6 5-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON 1 OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 


NO 
YES 


5353 
225 






9656 
278 


32 



2 




11263 
225 




104 
4 


5 
9 


6118 
120 


97 

5 


8 

21 


UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 


JS 
5616 






25 

9959 



32 



2 


25 
11513 





108 




5 


10 
6248 



102 



3 


RISK 
FACTOR 


75- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


84 AT EXAM 

t OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


85- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


94 AT EXAM 

1 OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


35- 
t OF 

EVENTS 


64 


COMBINED 65- 
AGE- » OF 
CRUDE ADJUSTED EVENTS 


94 COMBINED 

AGE- 
CRUDE ADJUS 


NO 
YES 


1904 
33 


55 




14* 



120 
3 


8 
1 


33 
167 


138 
4 




3 
5 


3 
4 


160 
6 


10 
19 


10 
15 


UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 


9 
19SI 



55 




14 



123 


a 

9 


37 



142 





3 




3 


166 



10 



10 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 

COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 

SE 


35-44 
45-54 














55-64 
65-74 
75-84 




0.664 
0.993 


0.514 
0.468 


0.197 
0.034 


0.092 
0.136 


0.071 
0.064 


85-94 




1 .946 


1.27S 


0.128 


0.301 


0.198 


35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.045 
0.658 


0.509 
0.424 


0.929 
0.120 


0.007 
0.091 


0.082 
0.058 


35-64 
65-94 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.293 

0.651 - 


0.510 
0.425 


0.566 

0. 126 


0.048 
0.090 


0.083 
0.059 


35-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


-0.230 ' 
O.JOS 


0.551 
0.439 


0.676 
0.483 


-0.037 
0.042 


0.089 
0.061 



c. 



- 60 - 



TABLE 2-15 DATE = 0'iDECS5 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
BY AGE AND LEVEL QF RISK FACTOR AT EXAM' FRAMINGHAM STUDY 30-YEAR FOLLOWUP 

SEX: MALE 

EVENT: CnRONARY HEART DISEASE OTHER THAN ANGINA PECTORIS 

RISK FACTOR: HEART ENLARGEMENT BY X-RAY 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 
FACTOR 

NO 

MILD 

DEFINITE 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



SS-*)"* AT EXAM 
PERSON » OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



<<063 
185 
219 

5 
<<'*72 



30 
3 
1 


34 



<i5-5<i AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



6383 
650 
657 

772:* 



9<. 

1 t 
16 


121 



55-64 AT EXAM 
PERSON J OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



5967 

962 

1119 

1 
S049 



1 30 11 
25 13 
43 19 




193 




12 



65-7<i AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



2584 
578 
751 


3913 



77 
16 
45 


138 



15 
14 
30 



RISK 
FACTOR 

HO 

MILD 

DEFINITE 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



75-54 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



589 

178 
250 


1017 



20 

n 

23 


54 



17 
31 
46 



27 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

29 
5 

5 


39 



35-64 COMBINED 
• OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



254 


8 


8 


98 


15 


39 


11 


10 


28 


18 


60 


15 


13 


69 


34 














_ 


353 


9 


9 


195 


20 



65-94 COMBINED 
• OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 

15 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 




0.034 
0.222 
0.28J 
0.346 
0.529 


0.359 
0.132 

0.088 
0.099 
0.156 


0.924 
0.092 
0.001 
0.001 
0.001 


0.016 
0.135 
0.203 
0.Z75 
0.447 


0.168 
0.030 
0.064 
0.078 
0.132 


35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.333 
0.416 


0.070 
0.082 


0.001 
0.001 


0.212 

a.izi 


0.045 
0.066 


35-64 
63-94 


BIVARIATE 
flIVARIATE 


0.234 
0.396 - 


0.072 
0.082 


0.001 
0.001 


0.149 
0.320 


0.046 
0.066 


35-64 
45-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.164' 
0.25S 


0.077 
0.088 


0.033 
0.004 


0.104 
0.204 


0.049 
0.071 



SEXi FEMALE 

EVENT: CORONARY HEART DISEASE OTHER THAN ANGINA PECTORIS 

RISK FACTOR: HEART ENLARGEMENT BY X-RAY 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



35-44 AT EXAM 
RISK PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
FACTOR EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

NO 5164 

MILD 199 

DEFINITE 245 



45-54 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



0017 
943 
993 



20 
5 

7 



55-64 AT EXAM 65-74 AT EXAM 

PERSON < OF ANNUAL PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



7522 51 3 

1769 23 7 

2218 34 8 



3191 39 6 

1150 15 7 

1907 48 13 



UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 


8 

5616 






i 
9959 



32 2 


4 
11513 



108 



5 



4248 



102 


3 


RISK 

FACTOR 


75- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


84 AT EXAM 

i OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


85- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


94 AT EXAM 

t OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


35- 
« OF 
EVENTS 


44 COMBINED 

AGE- 
CRUDE ADJUSTED 


45- 
f OF 
EVENTS 


94 COMBINED 

AGE- 
CRUDE AOJUS 


NO 

MUD 
DEFINITE 


702 
373 
876 


8 

14 
33 


6 
19 
19 


32 

SO 


3 47 
3 50 
3 25 


7Z 
28 
42 


2 

5 
4 


2 
4 

5 


50 
32 
84 


4 
10 
15 


7 
10 
14 


UNKNOMN 
TOTAL 


a 

1951 



55 


14 



123 




9 57 



142 




3 



3 



144 


10 


10 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


F-VALUe 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 




0.541 
0.422 
0.373 
0.514 
-0.350 


0.211 
0.108 

0.111 
0.172 
0.403 


0.010 
0.001 
0.001 
0.003 
0.385 


0.345 
0.334 

0.328 

0.440 

-0.294 


0.135 
0.084 
0.098 
0.154 
0.338 


35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.648 
0.426 


0.094 
0.089 


0.001 
0.001 


0.452 
0.3SO 


0.045 
0.080 


35-44 
65-94 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.419 
0.373- 


0.097 
0.091 


0.001 
0.001 


0.293 
0.333 


0.048 
0.081 


55-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.337 ■ 
0.281 


. 1 04 
0.095 


0.001 
0.003 


0.235 
.251 


0.072 
0.085 



- 61 



RISK 

FACTOR 

HO 

BORDER 

DEFINITE 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



RISK 

FACTOR 
NO 

BORDER 
DEFINITE 

UNKNOWN 

TOTAl 



TABLE 2-16 3ATE=02APR85 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
BY AGE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT E/All FRAMINCHAM 5TUDY JO-TEAR FOLLOWUP 

SEX: MALE 

EVENT: CORONARY HEART DISEASE OTHER THAN ANGINA PECTORIS 

RISK FACTOR: LEFT VENTRICULAR HYPERTROPHY BY ELECTROCARDIOGRAM 

PFR'^nNs AT RISK: PERSQtis FREE OF c';roiiary heart disease 



35-4<i AT EXAM «5-5<i AT EXAM 

PERSON t OF ANNUAL PERSON t OF ANHmal 
EXAHS EVENTS RATE EXAtlS EVENTS RATE 



4366 

78 
28 


4<i72 









3'i 'i 



75-81 AT EXAM 
PERSON f OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 



EXAMS 

37 
31 


10 17 



<19 
1 




51 



26 
11 
65 



7197 
132 
95 


7721 



1 12 

5 
1 


121 



7 
19 
21 



85-91 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAHS EVENTS RATE 

31 
2 
3 


39 



55-61 AT EXAM 65-71 AT EXAM 

PERSON t OF ANNUAL PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



7693 
210 
116 


180 

7 

1 I 


12 
17 
33 




3703 

90 

120 


1 12 

9 
17 


15 
50 

71 



8019 



198 


12 





39 13 



138 


18 


35-61 
1 OF 
EVENTS 


COMBINED 

AGE- 
CRUDE ADJUSTED 


65- 
« OF 

EVENTS 


91 COMBINED 

AGE- 
CRUDE ADJUSTED 


326 
12 
IS 


8 
28 




8 
11 
23 


161 
10 
21 


17 
39 
68 


17 
12 
69 



353 


9 




9 



195 


20 


20 



c 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 

35-11 
15-51 
55-61 
65-71 
75-81 
35-91 

35-61 
65-91 

35-61 
65-91 

35-61 
65-91 



UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 



BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 



MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 



COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 

COEFFICIENT 


STD . 
SE 


0.613 

0.575 
0.37 1 
0.377 


0.223 

0. 151 
0. 132 
0.282 


0.006 

0.001 
0.001 
0. 182 


0. 156 

0. 177 
0.321 
0. 115 


0.057 
0.017 
0.019 
0. 109 


0.6 12 
0.715 


0. 126 
0.119 


0.001 
0.001 


0. 161 
0.251 


0.031 
0.015 


0.529 
0.738- 


0, 127 
0.119 


0.001 
0.001 


0. 112 
0.273 


0.031 
0.015 


0.300' 
0.196 


» 0.138 
0.130 


0.029 
0.001 


0.080 
0. 137 


0.037 
0.019 



SEX: FEMALE 

EVENT: CORONARY HEART DISEASE OTHER THAN ANGINA PECTORIS 

RISK FACTOR: LEFT VENTRICULAR HYPERTROPHY BY ELECTROCARDIOGRAM 

PERSONS AT RISK' PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 
FACTOR 

NO 

BORDER 

DEFINITE 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



35-11 AT EXAM 15-54 AT EXAM 

PERSON I OF ANNUAL PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

5563 
38 
15 


56 16 



55-61 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



6 3-71 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



9798 

107 

51 


32 









1 1 137 
226 
150 


101 
3 
1 


5 

7 

13 


5966 
131 
113 


86 

7 
9 


7 
26 
30 



9959 



32 


; 



11513 



108 


5 



6218 



102 


8 



RISK 
FACTOR 

NO 

BORDER 

DEFINITE 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAl 



75-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 




1951 



IS 
3 

1 


55 



13 
31 
29 



85-91 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1 1 1 
6 
i 



123 



35-61 COMBINED 
• OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



S 

3 

12 



65-91 C0M8IME0 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



112 

10 

' II 


166 



9 
26 
31 



9 
27 
31 



AGE AT 
EXAM 

35-11 
15-51 
55-61 
65-71 
75-81 
85-91 

35-61 
65-91 

35-61 
65-91 

35-61 
65-91 



UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 



BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 



COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 



521 

0.8 10 
,169 
0.303 



MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 



720 
702 



512 
661- 



SE 
FFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


0.212 
0. 161 
0.215 
0.412 


o"o3 1 

n.oo 1 

0.055 
11.620 


0."l33 
0.270 
0. 136 
0. Ill 


o" 061 
0.055 
0.097 
0.290 


0.220 
0. 133 


0.001 
0.00 1 


0. 153 
0.217 


0.017 
0. 017 


0.221 
. 131 


0.022 

o.oot 


0.109 
0.231 


018 
0. 017 


0.213 
0.111 


0.512 
0.001 


0.031 
0. 193 


0.0 52 
050 



c 



- 62 



TABLE 2-17 DATE=0<iDEC8S 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
BY AGE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAMi FRAMINGHAM STUDY JO-YEAR FOLLOWUP 

SEX: MALE 

EVENT: CORONARY HEART DISEASE OTHER THAN ANGINA PECTORIS 

RISK FACTOR: INTRAVENTRICULAR CONDUCTION DEFECT (WITH 3RS INTERVAL MORE THAN 0.11 SECOND) 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



SS-'i'f AT EXAM 



RISK 
FACTOR 


PERSON 
EXAMS 


« OF 

EVENTS 


ANNUAL 

RATE 


NO 

INCOMPLETE 
COMPLETE 


<<161 

27 5 

36 


32 

2 



4 

4 




UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



'i'i72 





4 


RISK 

FACTOR 


75- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


84 AT EXAM 

t OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


NO 

INCOMPLETE 
COMPLETE 


918 
21 
78 


49 

1 
4 


27 
24 
26 


UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



1017 



54 


27 



45-54 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



7213 

446 

65 


7724 



11 1 
7 
3 


121 



23 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

31 
2 
6 


39 



55-64 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



7386 
456 
207 


8049 



173 

13 

7 

n 

198 



12 

20 
17 



65-74 AT EXAH 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



3566 
153 
164 


3913 



126 
7 
5 


138 



18 
19 
15 






35-64 COMBINED 
t OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



65-94 COMBINED 
» OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



316 
27 
10 


8 

n 

16 


8 

12 
16 


177 

8 

10 


20 

19 
20 


20 
20 
18 



353 


9 


9 



195 


20 


20 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STO 
SE 


35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-«4 
g5'-94 




-0.249 

0.320 

0.301 

-0.040 

-0.027 


0.673 
0.259 
0.153 
0.201 
0.262 


0.712 
0.217 
0.049 
0.842 
0.919 


-0.074 

0.094 

0.116 

-0.018 

-0.015 


0.199 
0.076 
0.059 
0.089 
0.143 


35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.32S 
0.011 


0.130 
0.154 


0.01Z 
0.944 


0.109 
0.005 


0.043 
0.073 


35-64 
65-94 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.252 
-0.020 - 


0.129 
0.154 


0.050 
0.S96 


0.084 
-0.009 


0.043 
0.072 


35-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.233' 
0.004 


0.136 
0.156 


O.Oti 
0.9S2 


0.078 
0.002 


0.045 
0.074 



SEX! FEMALE 

EVENT: CORONARY HEART DISEASE OTHER THAN ANGINA PECTORIS 

RISK FACTOR: INTRAVENTRICULAR CONDUCTION DEFECT (WITH QRS INTERVAL MORE THAN 0.11 SECOND) 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



35-44 AT EXAM 
RISK PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
FACTOR EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



4 5-54 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



55-64 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



65-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



NO 

INCOMPLETE 
.COMPLETE 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



5529 
75 
12 


5616 



9771 

144 

44 


32 





2 




11183 
187 
143 


102 
2 
4 


5 

5 

14 


6027 
115 
106 


98 

1 
3 


8 

4 

14 



9959 



32 


2 



11513 



108 


5 



4248 



•102 


S 



RISK 
FACTOR 

NO 

INCOMPLETE 
COMPLETE 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



75-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 

EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1847 
36 
68 


1951 



52 14 

1 14 

2 15 



55 14 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



117 


5 



123 



35-64 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



3 

2 

10 



65-94 COMBINED 
I ,0F AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



159 
2 
5 


166 



10 

7 

14 



10 

7 
14 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VAIUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 




0.516 
0.172 
0.019 


0.251 
0.301 
0.348 


0.040 
0.567 
0.957 


0.131 
O.OSO 
0.007 


0.064 
0.087 
0.135 


35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.574 
0.103 


0.255 
0.227 


0.0Z4 
0.652 


0.120 
0.033 


0.053 
0.072 


35-64 
65-94 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.383 
0.053 • 


0.253 
0.227 


0.130 
0.816 


0.080 
0.017 


0.053 
0.072 


35-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.427 ■ 
0.051 


0.255 
0.229 


0.095 
0.823 


0.089 
0.016 


0.053 
0.073 



63 - 



AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISKAT EXAM 
BT AGE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAM: FRAMINGHAM STUDY 30-YEAR FQLLONUP 

SEX: MALE 

EVENT: CORONARY HEART DISEASE OTHER THAN ANGINA PECTORIS 

P^I^O«'=I?'Rl?^f%1J|o!!?'1^ii'S^'cjRSS^R'Y°KEAj; = ^??l;;jE*°''°''"*''^°^^^^'=^''°"''°"'=''*" 



RISK 
FACTOR 


35- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


-44 AT EXAM 

t OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


45- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


54 AT EXAM 

1 OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


55- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


64 AT EXAM 

1 OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


6 5-7t 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


AT EXAM 
t OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


NO 
YES 


4362 
I 10 


29 

5 


3 
23 


7352 
372 


113 
8 


8 
11 


7462 
587 


179 
19 


12 
16 


3472 
441 


1 10 
28 


16 
32 


UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



4472 



34 


4 



7724 



121 


8 



8049 



198 


12 



J913 



138 


18 


RISK 
FACTOR 


75- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


84 AT EXAM 

t OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


85- 
PERSQN 
EXAMS 


94 AT EXAM 

t OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


35- 
t OF 
EVENTS 


64 COMBINED 

AGE- 
CRUDE ADJUSTED 


65- 
» OF 
EVENTS 


94 COMBINED 

AGE- 
CRUDE ADJUSTED 


NO 
YES 


830 
187 


45 
9 


27' 
24 


28 
11 






321 
32 


8 

15 


8 
16 


155 
40 


IS 
31 


IS 
31 


UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



1017 



54 


27 



39 







3S3 


9 


9 



195 


20 


20 



( 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIEMT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD" 
SE 


35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 




1 .962 
0.342 
0.308 
0.729 
-0.126 ' 


0.494 
0.370 
0.245 
0.218 
0.374 


0.001 
. 8.355 
0.209 
0.001 
0.737 


0.304 
0.073 
0.080 
0.230 
-0.049 


0.077 
0.079 
0.064 
0.069 
0. 145 


35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.595 
0.587 


0.188 
0.183 


O.OOZ 
0.001 


0. 133 

0. 197 


0.042 
0.061 


35-64 
65-94 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIAIE 


0.422 
0.527 . 


0.189 
0.134 


0.026 
0.004 


0.094 
0.177 


0.042 
0.062 


35-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.037 ■ 
0.44S 


0.199 
0.187 


0.853 
0.017 


0,008 
0. 149 


0.044 
0.062 



SEX: FEMALE 

EVENT: CORONARY HEART DISEASE OTHER THAN ANGINA PECTORIS 

RISK FACTOR: DEFINITE NONSPECIFIC T-WAVE OR ST-SEGMENT ABNORMALITY BY ELECTROCARDIOGRAM 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 
FACTOR 


35- 

PERSON 
EXAMS 


44 AT EXAM 

1 OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


45- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


54 AT EXAM 

1 OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


55- 

PERSON 
EXAMS 


64 AT EXAM 

» OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


65-7<i 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


AT EXAM 
t OF ANNUAL 

EVENTS RATE 


NO 
YES 


5517 
99 






9543 
416 


28 

4 


1 

5 


106 47 
866 


90 
18 


4 
10 


5528 
720 


79 
23 


7 
16 


UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



5616 







9959 



32 


2 



11513 



108 


5 



6248 



.102 


3 


RISK 
FACTOR 


75- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


84 AT EXAM 

t OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


85- 

PERSON 
EXAMS 


94 AT EXAM 

1 OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


35- 
1 OF 
EVENTS 


64 COMBINED 65- 
AGE- » OF 
CRUDE ADJUSTED EVENTS 


•94 COMBINED 

AGE- 
CRUDE ADJUS 


NO 
YES 


1632 
319 


42 
13 


13 
20 


97 
26 


7 
2 


36 
38 


120 
22 


2 

8 


2 

6 


128 
38 


9 
18 


9 

17 


UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



1951 



55 


14 



123 



9 


37 



142 


3 


3 



166 


10 


10 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIEMT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


S5-4ii 

55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 




1.194 
0.912 
0.S22 
0.475 
0.069 


0.537 
0.261 
0.240 
0.323 
0.334 


0.026 
0.001 
0.001 
0.142 
0.934 


0.239 
0.241 
0.263 
0.176 
0.028 


0.107 
0.069 
0.077 
0.120 
0.342 


35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


1 .239 
0.723 


0.234 
0.138 


o.oot 

0.001 


0.275 
0.242 


0.051 
0.063 


35-64 
65-94 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.890 
0.652 


0.236 
0.189 


0.001 
0.001 


0.196 
0.213 


0.052 
0.063 


35-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.642 
0.592 


0.244 
0. 190 


0.009 
0.002 


141 
0. 193 


0.054 
0.064 



.4 - 



TABLE 3-1 



n«TF.»30VA''?,5 



AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVE'IT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
BT AGE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAM; FRAMIHGHAM STUDY iO-YEAR FOLLCUUP 

SEX: MALE 

EVENT: MYOCARDIAL INFARCTION 

RISK FACTOR: SYSTOLIC BLOOD PRESSURE, FIRST EXAMINER (MM HG) 

PERSONS AT risk: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



35-44 AT EXAM 
RISK PERSON < OF ANNUAL 
FACTOR EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



45-54 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



55-64 mT EXAM 65-74 AT EXAM 

PERSON i OF ANNUAL PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EvtNIS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



74-1 19 
120-139 
140-159 

160-179 
lSO-300 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



1223 

2165 

S41 

191 

52 


4472 



3 

12 

5 

3 




23 



1769 

3417 

1732 

567 

239 


7724 



13 
26 
23 

13 



1440 


14 


? 


3166 


42 


7 


2090 


4S 


1 1 


916 


24 


13 


437 


14 


16 








. 


3049 


142 


9 



543 

134 1 

I 194 

552 

278 


3913 



2 


2 


27 


10 


34 


14 


19 


17 


15 


27 





_ 


97 


12 



75-S4 AT EXAM 
RISK PERSON I OF ANNUAL 

FACTOR EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 

EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



35-64 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



65-94 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



74-1 19 
120-139 
140-159 
160-179 
130-300 

UNKNOHN 
TOTAL 



120 


2 


3 


345 


9 


13 


315 


15 


24 


153 


5 


16 


84 


6 


36 








- 


1017 


37 


18 



7 
15 




39 



30 


3 


4 


4 


3 


J 


80 


5 


5 


36 


1 1 . 


1 1 


31 


9 


3 


50 


16 


16 


40 


12 


1 1 


24 


17 


17 


15 


10 


7 


21 


29 


29 





_ 







_ 




246 


6 


6 


135 


14 


13 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 

35-44 

45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-34 
85-94 

35-64 
65-94 

35-64 
65-94 

35-64 
65-94 



COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 



UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 



BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 



MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 



02 1 
012 
16 
019 
016 



013 
018 



014 
013 



0.013 
0.015 



SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


3TD 

SE 


0.010 
.005 
, 003 
0.004 
0.007 


0.036 
0.O18 
O.QQl 
0.001 
0.020 


0.353 
0.236 
0.347 
0.433 
0.362 


. 16S 
.099 
0.072 
0.036 
0. 155 


0.003 
0.003 


0.00 1 
0.001 


0.362 
0.419 


0.053 
0.075 


0.003 
0.003 


0.001 
0.001 


0.290 
0.421 


0.054 
0.075 


0.003 
0.004 


0.00 1 ■' 
0.001 


0.256 
0.342 


0.059 
0.050 



SEX: FEMALE 

EVENT: MYOCARDIAL INFARCTION 

RISK FACTOR: SYSTOLIC BLOOD PRESSURE. FIRST EXAMINER (MM HG) 

PERSONS AT risk: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 
FACTOR 

74-1 19 
120-139 
140-159 
160-179 
180-300 

I UNKHOHN 
TOTAL 



35-44 AT EXAM 
PERSON i OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

2493 
2244 

673 

156 

50 


56 16 



45-54 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 

EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



27 14 

3932 

2053 

76S 

442 




9959 



10 
9 




21 



55-64 AT EXAM 65-74 AT EXAM 

PERSON . OF ANNUAL PERSON • OF ANNUAL 

EXAMS EveNIS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1979 


4 


1 


647 


5 


4 


4056 


13 


2 


1747 


1 1 


3 


3025 


16 


3 


20 13 


24 


6 


156 


16 


5 


1 155 


9 


4 


393 


15 


3 


636 


20 


15 








_ 





•0 


_ 


11513 


64 


3 


6243 


69 


6 



RISK 
FACTOR 

74-119 
120-139 
140-159 
160-179 
180-300 

UNKNQHN 
TOTAL 



75-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



133 


3 


11 


465 


6 


6 


626 


6 


5 


45 1 


9 


10 


276 


9 


16 








. 


951 


33 


3 



35-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



8 

38 
29 

31 
17 




123 









2 


26 


3 


52 








1 


29 





_ 


6 


24 



35-64 COMBINED 
I OF AOE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



5 
24 
25 

17 
16 


87 



65-94 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



3 
19 
33 




108 



5 

4 

6 

-5 

15 



6 
4 
6 
5 
IS 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 

EXAM 

35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 

35-64 
65-94 

35-64 
65-94 

35-64 
65-94 



COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 



0.011 
0.021 
0.017 
0.011 
-0.003 



UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 



BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 



MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 



023 
015 



19 

014 



013 
Oil 



SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


o.oos 

0.004 
0.004 
0.006 
0.017 . 


0. 156 
0.001 
0.001 
0.033 
.362 


0.255 
0.513 
0.410 
0.277 
-0.074 


- 130 
0.093 
0. 106 
. 160 
0.427 


0.003 
0.004 


0.001 
0.00 1 


0.547 
0.36 1 


0.072 
0.036 


0.003 

0.004 


, 001 
0.001 


0.44 1 
0.339 


0.030 
0.037 


0.004 
0.004 


0.001 
0.003 


0.4 16 
0.267 


0.088 
0.090 



- 65 - 



TABLE 3-2 '^AT!:=3 0HAR85 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
BT AGE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAM- FRAMINGHAM STUDY JO-YEAR FOLLQUUP 

SEX: MALE 

EVENT: MYOCARDIAL INFARCTION 

RISK FACTOR: DIASTOLIC BLOOD PRESSURE, FIRST EXAMINER (MM HO) 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



15-<i<i AT EXAM <i5-S<i AT EX*M 55-6^ AT EXAM 

RISK PERSON i OF ANNUAL PERSON I OF ANNUAL PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
FACTOR EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



( 



65-7* AT EXAM 
PERSON « OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



20-74 
75-81 
55-91 
95-101 
105-160 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



1012 
1601 
1 187 
199 
170 


1172 




23 



1178 
2766 
2062 
1008 
110 


11 
22 
23 
11 
8 


5 
1 
6 
7 
10 



7721 



81 


5 



1817 


23 


6 


2515 


13 


5 


1961 


16 


12 


982 


19 


10 


1 1 1 


1 1 


15 








. 


5019 


112 


9 



1225 


29 


12 


1323 


30 


1 1 


593 


20 


1 1 


313 


12 


17 


129 


6 


23 








. 


3913 


97 


12 



RISK 
FACTOR 



20-71 
75-81 
S5-91 
95-101 
105-160 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



75-51 AT EXAM 
PERSON i Of ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



122 


12 


11 


331 


12 


18 


201 


9 


22 


11 


2 


23 


16 


2 


63 





a 


, 


1017 


37 


IS 



55-91 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

22 
12 

5 




39 



35-61 COMBINED 
» OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



65-91 COMBINED 
» OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



38 


1 


1 


12 


13 


12 


7 1 


5 


5 


12 


13 


12 


76 


7 


8 


29 


13 


13 


11 


8 


8 


11 


18 


18 


20 


10 


10 


8 


28 


31 





_ 







_ 




214 


6 


6 


135 


11 


13 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
5E 


35-11 
15-51 
55-61 
65-71 
75-81 
85-91 




0.050 
0.018 
0.020 
0.015 
0.025 


0.015 
0,009 
0.004 
0.008 
0.Q11 


0.001 
0.012 
0.002 
0.057 
0.069 


0.565 
0.211 
0.211 
0. 185 
0.294 


. 175 
0. 105 
0.078 
0.097 
0. 143 


35-61 
45-91 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.82J. 

g.ois _ 


0.005 
0.007 


0.001 
0.027 


0.271 
0. 181 


0.059 
0.083 


J5-41 
65-91 


8IVARIATE 
IIVARIATE 


0.023 
O.017 


0.005 
0.007 


0.001 
0.012 


0.247 
0.212 


0.058 
0.081 


J5-41 
45-91 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.022 
0.013 


O.OOS 
0.007 


0.001 
0.071 


0.257 
0. 153 


0.04 1 
0.084 



SEX: FEMALE 

EVENT: MYOCARDIAL INFARCTION 

RISK FACTOR: DIASTOLIC BLOOD PRESSURE, FIRST EXAMINER (MM HG) 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 
FACTOR 

20-71 
75-81 
85-91 
95-101 
105-140 

UNKNOWN 

TOTAL 



35-1* AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

2161 
2030 

937 

321 

1 I I 


36 16 



15-51 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



55-61 AT EXAM 65-71 AT EXAM 

PERSON I OF AHHUAl PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



26J9 


3 


1 


2969 


10 


2 


3511 


3 





3853 


11 


2 


234 1 


13 


3 


2810 


17 


3 


926 








1272 


11 


6 


192 


2 


2 


579 


9 


8 








_ 








_ 


9959 


21 


1 


11513 


61 


3 



1831 

2155 

1139 

600 

213 


6218 



20 
20 
14 

5 




69 



5 

5 

6 

1 

16 



RISK 
FACTOR 

20-71 
75-81 
85-91 
' 95-101 
105-140 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



75-51 AT EXAM 
PERSON ( OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



721 


1 1 


8 


594 


12 


10 


113 


6 


7 


114 


2 


7 


12 


2 


21 





Q 


. 


1951 


33 


8 



8 5-91 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



53 
13 
20 

7 




123 



2 


19 


3 


35 


1 


25 











- 





_ 


6 


21 



35-41 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



11 
17 
30 
15 
I I 


87 



45-91 COMBINED 
I OF ACE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



33 
35 
25 
7 
10 


108 



4 

6 

. 4 

5 

IS 



6 
7 
7 
5 
IS 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 

3£ 


55-11 

15-51 

S5-41 

45-71 

75-81 • 

S5-91 




0.025 
0.039 
0.014 
-O.0O3 
0.001 


0.015 
O.OOS 
0.009 
0.015 
0.035 


0.108 
0.001 
0.09Z 
0.814 
0.900 


0.301 
0.179 
0. 195 

-0.011 
0.055 


0. 189 
0. 105 
0. 115 
0. 177 
0.125 


35-61 
45-91 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.039 
0.007 


0.007 
0.008 


0.001 
0.342 


0.172 
0.087 


0.084 
0.095 


35-41 
45-91 


8IVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.035 
0.010 


0.007 
0.008 


0.001 
0.207 


0.12S 
0. 120 


0.091 

0, 095 


35-41 
45-91 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.032 
0. 006 


0.008 
0.008 


0.001 
0.111 


0.395 
0.077 


0.096 
0.095 



66 



TABLE 3-3A BATE=2IN0V!5 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
BY AGE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAM' FRAMINGHAM STUDY 30-YEAR FOLLOWUP 

SEXi MALE 

EVENT: MYOCARDIAL INFARCTION 

RISK FACTOR! HYPERTENSION WITH ANTIHYPERTENSIVE TREATMENT 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



35-'<<i AT EXAM 
RISK PERSON » OF ANNUAL 
FACTOR EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



NO 

MILD 
DEFINITE 
TREATED 

UNKNOMN 
TOTAL 



2651 

1 301 

500 

20 


<i47Z 



9 
6 
7 
1 


23 



2 

2 

7 

25 



45-54 AT EXAM 55-64 AT EXAM 65-74 AT EXAM 

PERSON t OF ANNUAL PERSON I OF ANNUAL PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



4122 

2205 

1139 

258 


7724 



29 
26 

18 




81 



3773 

2301 

1263 

707 


8049 



43 
57 
30 
12 


142 



6 
12 
12 

8 



1512 


15 


5 


1255 


38 


15 


552 


21 


19 


594 


25 


19 








. 


5913 


97 


12 



RISK 
FACTOR ■ 

NO 

MILD 

DEFINITE 

TREATED 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



75-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



370 
333 
125 
139 


1017 



7 
12 

6 
12 


57 



9 
IS 
24 
52 



35-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

IS 
11 

5 

7 


59 



55-64 COMBINED 
« OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



65-94 COMBINED 
♦ OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



81 


4 


4 


22 


6 


6 


89 


S 


8 


51 


16 


16 


55 


9 


9 


27 


20 


20 


21 


11 


15 


55 


22 


22 





- 







_ 




246 


6 


6 


155 


14 


14 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-34 
85-94 




0.752 
0.493 
0.320 
0.612 
0.561 


0.261 
0.135 

0.101 
0.132 
0.215 


0.004 
0.001 
0.002 
0.001 
0.009 


0.522 
0.379 
0.260 
0.501 
0.459 


0.181 
0.104 
0.082 
0.108 
0.176 


S5-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.475 
0.598 


0.077 
0.112 


0.001 
0.001 


0.J70 
0.490 


0.060 
0.092 


55-64 
65-94 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.395 
0.596 ■ 


0.078 
0.112 


0.001 
0.001 


0.308 
0.488 


0.061 
0.092 


55-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.361 
0.520 


0.082 
0.115 


0.001 
0'. 001 


0.281 
0.426 


0.06J 
0.094 



SEX" FEMALE 

EVENT I MYOCARDIAL INFARCTION 

RISK FACTOR: HYPERTENSION WITH ANTIHYPERTENSIVE TREATMENT 

PERSONS AT RISK' PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



35-44 AT EXAM 
RISK PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
FACTOR EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



45-54 AT EXAM 55-64 AT EXAM 

PERSON I OF ANNUAL PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



6 5-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



NO 

MILD 

DEFINITE 

TREATED 

UNKNOHH 
TOTAL 



4250 

1001 

316 

49 


5616 



5«2Z 

2579 

11&« 

592 


s 

10 

3 


1 

Z 


3 


4863 
3290 

1835 
1525 


8 

13 
23 
20 


1 
2 
6 
7 


1751 
191 1 
1036 
1550 


11 
•19 

to 

29 


3 
5 
5 
9 


a 

9959 



21 


1 



11515 



64 


5 



6248 



69 


6 



RISK 
FACTOR 

NO 

MILD 

DEFINITE 

TREATED 

UNKNOMN 
TOTAL 



AGE AT 

EXAM 

35-44 

45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 



75-84 AT EXAM 85-94 AT EXAM 

PERSON • OF ANNUAL PERSON « OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RAT.E EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



395 
585 
375 
596 


1951 



35-64 
65-94 



35-64 
65-94 



35-64 
65-94 



5 

9 

10 

9 


35 



6 
8 

15 

8 



55-«4 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 



Z39 
068 
438 
.ZZ6 

100 



UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 



BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 



MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 



0.998 
0.382 



0.79J 
0.347 ■ 



0.773 
0.255 



31 1 
28 2 
24 
40 3 


16 

56 



58 


17 
23 
24 
25 



125 6 


24 


a 

87 


LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 


SE 

COEFFICIENT 




P-VALUE 


0.268 
0.182 
0.161 
0.238 
0.512 




0.375 
0.001 
0.007 
0.342 
0.845 


0.156 
0.129 




0.001 
0.005 


0.140 
0. 130 




0.001 
0.008 


0. 146 
0.132 




0.001 
0.055 



65-94 COMSINED 
t OF AGE- , 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



17 
50 

20 - 
41 


10S 



STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 



0.183 
0.892 
0.5<0 
0.177 
0.084 

0.792 
0.512 

0.629 
0.285 

0.615 
0.208 



STD 

SE 



0.206 
0.152 
0. 133 
0.186 
0.430 



108 
105 



1 1 1 
106 



I 16 
108 



- 67 



RISK 
FACTOR 

NO 

MILD 
DEFINITE 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



TABLE 3-3B DATE=230CT85 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
BY AGE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAMi FRAMINGHAM STUDY 30-YEAR FOLLOWUP 

SEXi MALE 

EVENT: MYOCARDIAL INFARCTION 

RISK FACTOR; HYPERTENSION IGNORING TREATMENT 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



35-<<4 AT EXAM 05-54 AT EXAM 55-64 AT EXAM 

PERSON t OF ANNUAL PERSON I OF ANNUAL PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



2653 

1310 

509 


4472 




23 



2 4154 30 4 
2 2284 28 6 
8 1236 23 9 




7724 




81 



3909 
2583 
1557 


8049 



45 
60 
37 


142 



6 
12 
12 



6 5-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



c 



1631 

1499 

783 


3913 



19 
48 
30 


97 



6 
16 
19 



RISK 
FACTOR 

NO 

MILD 
DEFINITE 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



75-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATf 



412 
418 
187 


1017 



10 12 
16 19 

11 29 



37 18 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

21 

15 

3 


39 



35-64 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



65-94 COMBINED 
« OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



84 


4 


4 


29 


7 


7 


94 


i 


8 


65 


17 


17 


68 


10 


10 


41 


21 


21 





_ 







_ 




246 


6 


6 


135 


14 


13 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-34 




0.763 
0.462 
0.382 
0.572 
0.461 


0.262 
0.137 
0.105 
0.134 
0.223 


0.004 
0.001 
0.001 
0.001 
0.039 


0.527 
0.348 
0.294 
0.432 
0.339 


0.181 
0.103 
0.081 
0.101 
0.164 


85-94 














35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.489 

0.542 


0.079 
0.114 


0.001 
0.001 


0.367 
0.407 


0.059 
0.086 


35-64 
65-94 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.431 - 
0.546 . 


0.080 
0.114 


0.001 
0.001 


0.324 
0.410 


0.060 
0.086 


35-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.390 
0.4S3 


0.084 
0.119 


0.001 
0.001 


0.292 
0.340 


0.06 3 
0.089 



SEX: FEMALE 

EVENT: MYOCARDIAL INFARCTION 

RISK FACTOR: HYPERTENSION IGNORING TREATMENT 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 
FACTOR 


35- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


44 AT EXAM 

1 OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


45- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


54 AT EXAM 

• OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


55- 

PERSON 
EXAMS 


64 AT EXAM 

t OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


65-7": 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


AT EXAM 
J OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


NO 

MILD 
DEFINITE 


4272 

1016 

328 






5804 
2763 
1392 


8 
12 

1 


1 
2 



5245 
3860 
2408 


14 
21 
29 


1 
3 
6 


2035 
2549 
1664 


12 
32 
25 


3 
6 
8 


UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



5616 







9959 



21 


1 



11513 



64 


3 



6243 



69 


6 


RISK 
FACTOR 


75- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


84 AT EXAM 

1 OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


85- 

PERSON 
EXAMS 


94 AT EXAM 

1 OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


35- 
1 OF 
EVENTS 


64 COMBINED 45- 
AGE- » OF 
CRUDE ADJUSTED EVENTS 


94 COMBINED 

AGE- 
CRUDE ADJUSTED 


NO 

MILD 

DEFINITE 


507 
827 
617 


6 
10 
17 


'6 

6 

14 


37 
45 
41 


1 
4 

t 


14 
44 
12 


23 
33 
31 


1 
2 
4 


1 

2 

■ I 


19 
46 
45 


4 

• 7 

9 


4 
7 
9 


UNKNOHH 
TOTAL 



19S1 



33 


8 



123 


9 
i 


24 



87 


2 


2 



108 


6 


7 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VAIUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 




0.197 
0.764 
0.429 
0.516 
-0.054 


0.285 
0.161 
0.161 
0.247 
0.526 


0.489 

0.001 
0.008 
0.037 
0.918 


0.143 
0.593 
0.329 
0.390 
-0.043 


0.206 

0.125 

0,123 

• 0.187 

0.420 


35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.796 
0.443 


0.131 
0.130 


0.001 
0.001 


0.589 
0.340 


0.097 
0.100 


35-64 

65-94 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.606 
0.417 - 


0.135 
0.130 


0.001 
0.001 


0.448 
0.319 


0.100 
0.100 


35-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.567• 
0.334 


0.142 
0.133 


0.001 
0.012 


0.419 
0.256 


0. 105 
0.102 



c. 



- 68 - 



RISK 
fACTOR 

S'l-Za'i 
205-23'* 
235-264 
265-294 
295-1 12"* 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



RISK 
FACTOR 



TABLE 3-4 DATE=30MAR8 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAH 
BY AGE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAM: FRAMINGHAM STUDY JO-YEAR FOLLOWUP 

SEXi MALE 

EVENTi MYOCARDIAL INFARCTION 

RISK FACTOR: SERUM CHOLESTEROL 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSQIIS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



35-4<« AT EXAM 45-54 AT EXAM 

PERSON • OF ANNUAL PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAAS EVENTS RATE 



55-64 -r EXAM 
PERSON . OF ANNUAL 



1253 
1247 
872 
475 
29 I 

334 
4472 



3 

4 
4 
5 
5 

2 
23 



TS-S"* AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



LXAMS 


EVENTS 


RATE 


EXAMS 


EVENTS R 


1767 
2306 
1745 
100 1 
557 


13 

24 
14 
14 
14 


4 
5 
4 
7 
13 


2255 

2405 

1839 

918 

454 


3 1 7 
46 10 
23 9 
16 9 
12 13 


348 
7724 


2 
St 


3 

5 


128 
8049 


4 16 
142 9 



65-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1234 


29 


12 


1 17 1 


28 


12 


873 


21 


12 


428 


12 


14 


19 1 


6 


16 


16 


1 


31 


39 13 


97 


12 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



35-64 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



65-94 COMBINED 
« OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



S4-204 
205-234 
235-264 
265-294 
295-1 124 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



390 

332 

177 
96 
22 


1017 



15 
12 




37 



23 

5 

23 



5 
6 



39 



1*7 


4 


5 


45 


14 


14 


7« 


6 


6 


40 


13 


13 


51 


6 


6 


29 


14 


14 


35 


7 


7 


13 


12 


12 


31 


12 


12 


7 


16 


17 


S 


5 


3 


1 


31 


24 


24« 


6 


6 


135 


14 


13 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 


. 


COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 




0.012 
0.007 
0.004 
0.002 
0.000 


0.0O3 
0.002 
0.002 
0.003 
0.004 


0.001 
0. 002 
0.077 
0.439 
0.975 


0.521 
0.233 
0.146 
0.079 
0.005 


0.144 
0.093 
0.032 
0. 102 
0. 167 


35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.006. 
0.001 


0.001 
0.002 


0.001 
0.630 


0.234 
0.042 


0.058 
0.087 


35-64 
65-94 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.006 
0.001 


0.001 
' 0.002 


o.oot 

0.513 


0.254 
0.054 


0.059 
0.037 


J5-64 
45-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.005 
0.001 


0.001 
0.002 


0.001 
0.504 


0.225 
0.053 


0.059 
0.038 



SEX: FEMALE 

EVENT: MYOCARDIAL INFARCTION 

RISK FACTOR: SERUM CHOLESTEROL 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART 



35-44 AT EXAM 
RISK PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
fACTOR EXAMS EVEiiTS RATE 



45-54 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



SS-os -r EXAM 65-74 AT EXAM 

PERSON • JF ANNUAL PERSON I OF ANNUAL 

EXAMS Events rate exams events rate 



84-204 
205-234 
235-264 
265-294 
295-1124 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



2350 

1417 

806 

372 

171 

500 
56 16 



2094 
2553 
ZZ59 
1475 
1 101 


2 
5 
2 
3 
6 




1 



1 

3 


1625 

26 15 
2938 
2240 
1344 


3 
13 
1 1 
16 
14 


2 
2 
2 

4 
4 


789 
140 1 
1703 
1287 
1031 


5 
14 
18 
15 
•19 


2 

5 
5 
6 
9 


474 
9959 


3 
21 


3 
1 


229 
1 1513 



64 


C 
3 


37 
4243 



49 



6 



1 



75-84 AT EXAM 35-94 AT EXAM 

RISK PERSON I OF ANNUAL PERSON • OF ANNUAL 

FACTOR EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



35-64 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



65-94 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



84-204 
205-234 
235-264 
265-294 
295-1 124 

UNKNOWN 

TOTAL 



AGE AT 
EXAM 

35-44 
45-54 
55-64 

45-74 
75-34 
85-94 



34 1 

434 
542 
350 
205 

7 
1951 



35-64 
45-94 



35-64 
65-94 



35-64 
65-94 



7 
8 
8 
6 
4 


33 



7 
9 
10 


3 



COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 



UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 



BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 



MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 



007 
006 
003 
00 1 
005 

008 
005 

007 
006 

004 
004 



44 1 

28 2 

35 2 

9 1 

5 


1 1 

34 

29 

54 




10 
IS 
14 
19 
23 



123 4 


24 


3 

87 


LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 




P-VALUE 


0.002 
0.003 
0.Q03 
0.004 
. 009 




0. 00 1 
0.015 
0.002 
0.844 
0.551 


0.002 
0.002 




, 00 1 

0. 027 


0.002 
0.002 




00 1 
. 007 


0.002 
0.002 




. OQ 1 
. 007 





1 
1 

2 

3 




1 
2 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 









315 
278 
351 
029 
24 3 






379 
207 






3 14 

254 






274 
255 



11 

24 
23 
22 
23 


108 



STD 

SE 



0. 096 
0.115 
0.113 
0. 175 
0.40S 

0.077 
0.093 

0.075 
0.094 

0.077 
0.095 



69 - 



RISK 

FACTOR 

25-12 
'i3-'i4 
<i5-<i6 
«7-<13 
"•9-70 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



TABLE 3-5 "'.T:;-30"A°°5 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
BY ACE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAM" FRAMINGHAM STUDY 30-YEAR FOLLOWUP 

SEXi MALE 

EVENT; MYOCARDIAL INFARCTION 

RISK FACTOR: HEMATOCRIT 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



li-t,i, AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS 



EVENTS RATE 



623 
546 
983 
775 
1 175 

370 
«<i72 



5 

2 
2 
12 

2 

23 



1,5- S'> AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS KATE 



942 

967 
1454 
ISIO 
2066 

385 
7724 



<( 
10 
19 
20 
25 

3 
81 



55-64 AT EXAM 65-74 AT EXAM 

PERSON . OF ANNUAL PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



loia 


17 


8 


985 


13 


7 


1953 


32 


3 


1599 


29 


9 


2338 


47 


10 


156 


4 


13 


3049 


142 


9 



450 


10 


1 1 


493 


12 


12 


963 


21 


I 1 


86 1 


18 


10 


1127 


35 


16 


19 


1 


26 


3913 


97 


12 



75-84 AT EXAM 
RISK PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
FACTOR EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



35-64 COMBINED 
I OF AOE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



65-94 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



25-42 
43-44 
45-46 
47-48 
49-70 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



214 


9 


21 


1 19 


7 


29 


240 


6 


13 


197 


3 


20 


247 


7 


14 








_ 


017 


37 


18 



16 

5 
7 
7 
4 


39 



26 


5 




19 


14 


13 


23 


5 




19 


15 


ts 


53 


6 




28 


12 


tz 


51 


7 




26 


12 


tz 


84 


3 




42 


15 


15 


9 


5 




1 


26 


29 


246 


6 




135 


14 


13 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 

COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 




0. 115 
0.056 
0.040 
0.047 
-0.046 


0.060 
0.032 
0.023 
0.028 
0.039 


0.055 
0.030 
0, 078 
0. 100 
0.243 


0,422 
0. 199 
0. 153 
0. 172 
-0.191 


0.22O 
0.114 
0.087 
0. 105 
0. 164 


85-94 














35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.053- 
0.012, 


0.018 
0.025 


0.003 
0.608 


0. 19S 
0.045 


0.066 
0.088 


35-64 
65-94 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.051 
0.017 


0.018 
0.02J 


0.004 
0.460 


0, 188 
0.065 


0.066 
0.088 


35-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.027 
. 1.2 


0.018 
0.023 


0. 130 

0.608 


0.100 
0.044 


0.0«6 
0.090 



sex: female 

event: myocardial infarction 

risk factor: hematocrit 

persons at risk: persons free of coronary heart disease 



RISK 
FACTOR 

21-39 
40-4 I 
42-43 
44-45 
46i65 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



35-4^ AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

1697 

967 
1043 

3 56 

487 

5«6 
56.16 



45-54 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 

EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



55-64 «.■ EXAM 
PERSON , uF ANNUAL 

EXAMS cutHTS RATE 



6 5-7<t.AT EXAM 

PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1843 
1741 
1955 
2194 
168 1 


1 


5 
7 

5 




1 

2 
1 


1553 
206 1 
2260 
2347 
2521 


i 

1 

8 

14 

24 


3 
2 
2 

2 
5 


646 
1069 
1256 
1609 
1626 


7 
10 
13 
16 
23 


5 

5 
5 
5 

7 


545 
9959 


3 
21 


3 
1 


27 1 
11513 


1 
64 


2 
3 


42 ■ 
6248 



69 



6 



75-84 AT EXAM 
RISK PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
FACTOR EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



35-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



55-64 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



65-94 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



21-39 

40-4 1 
42-43 
44-45 
46-65 

UNKNOWN 

TOTAL 



297 


6 


10 


373 


9 


12 


353 


3 


4 


486 


7 


7 


436 


3 


9 


6 








1951 


35 


8 



24 
51 
19 
26 

25 


125 



2 


42 


2 


52 


2 


55 

















. 


6 


24 



10 
9 
13 
22 
29 

4 
87 



15 
21 
18 
23 
31 

' 
108 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



! AGE AT 
1 EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


■ 35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-34 
85-94 




0. 177 

0.090 

0.06 1 

-0.043 

-0. 198 


0.066 
0.036 
0.035 
0.044 
0. 1 12 


0.003 
OOIJ 
. 033 
0.318 
0.078 


0.630 

0.314 

0.213 

-0. 169 

-0.789 


0.237 
0. 127 
0- 123 
0. 169 
0.447 


35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0. 134 . 
0.001 


0.031 
0.027 


0.001 
0.969 


0.432 
0.004 


0. 1 12 
0.097 


35-64 
65-94 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0. 100 
0.007 


0.082 
0.027 


0.002 
0.782 


0.360 
0.027 


0. 1 14 
0.096 


35-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.040 
0.002 


0.031 
0.027 


0. 196 
0.951 


0. 144 
0.006 


0. 112 
0.096 






70 



TABLE 3-6 



DATE=30MAR85 



AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER tOOO PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
BY AGE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAM' FRAMINGHAM STUDY iO-YEAR FOLLOWUP 

SEX' MALE 

EVENT' MYOCARDIAL INFARCTION 

RISK FACTOR' BLOOD GLUCOSE <MG/DL) 

PERSONS AT RISK' PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 
FACTOR 

29-69 
70-S9 
90-109 
t 10-129 
130-52<i 

UNKNOHH 
TOTAL 



RISK 
FACTOR 



J5-<i<< AT EXAM 
PERSON » OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



992 

250 1 

105 

200 
'('.72 



5 
15 



2 
23 



7S-8<< AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



'<i-5'< AT EXAM 55-6t AT EXAM 

PERSON I OF ANNUAL PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1<i90 


15 


5 


'^172 


35 


I 


ijiia 


18 


7 


305 


7 


1 1 


193 


Ct 


10 


216 


2 


5 


772'! 


81 


5 



85-9<i AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1087 


13 


8 


<<a56 


67 


8 


1866 


36 


10 


537 


1 1 


10 


'iOS 


7 


9 


95 


3 


16 


80'i9 


1^2 


9 



65-7^ .AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



"121 


4 


5 


176 1 


<i5 


13 


1016 


23 


1 1 


335 


10 


15 


33'i 


1'i 


21 


16 


1 


31 


3913 


97 


12 



35-6A COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



65-9'4 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE AOJUSTED 



29-69 

70-89 
90-109 
1 10-129 
130-52'i 

UNKNOI^N 
TOTAL 



62 


<; 


32 


377 


15 


20 


328 


12 


13 


125 


3 


12 


125 


3 


12 








- 


1017 


37 


18 



t 
1 1 

lit 

9 


39 



38 


5 


6 


8 


8 


10 


1t7 


5 


5 


60 


l<i 


11 


S5 


7 


7 


35 


13 


12 


18 


10 


8 


13 


11 


11 


11 


8 


7 


18 


19 


19 


7 


7 


9 


1 


31 


21 


Z<i6 


6 


6 


135 


11 


13 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 

SE 


35-11 
15-51 
55-61 
65-71 
75-81 




-0.012 
0.006 
0.001 
0.007 

-0.006 


0.017 
0.003 
0.003 
0.002 
0.006 


0.161 
0.030 
0.620 
0.001 
0.321 


-0.210 
0. ISO 
0.039 
0.211 

-0.206 


0.237 
0.069 
0.079 
0.063 
0.209 


85-91 














35-61 
65-91 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.005 - 
0.006 _ 


0.002 . 
0.002 


0.011 
0.001 


0. 116 
0. 191 


0.017 
0.060 


35-61 
4S-9-1 


BIVARIATE 
8IVARIATE 


0.002 
0.006 


0.002 
0.002 


0.251 
0.002 


0.060 
0. 189 


0.053 
0.061 


35-61 
65-91 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.002 
0.005 


0.002 
0.002 


0.271 
0.013 


0.058 
0. 156 


0.053 
0.063 



SEX' FEMALE 

EVENT' MYOCARDIAL INFARCTION 

RISK FACTOR' BLOOD GLUCOSE (MG/DL) 

PERSONS AT RISK' PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



35-<i<4 AT EXAM 15-51 AT EXAM 

RISK PERSON I OF ANNUAL PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
FACTOR EXAJ15 EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



55-01 AT cXAH 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 

EXAMS Events rate 



6 5-7<* AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



29-69 

70-89 
90-109 
1 10-129 
130-521 

UNKNOHN 
TOTAL 



1066 

31 12 

672 

96 

39 

331 

56 16 



1797 

5711 

1625 

301 

159 


3 

9 

1 
1 
1 


I 
1 

2 
13 


1369 

6098 

27 12 

730 

138 


9 
22 
18 

7 
7 


3 
2 
3 
5 

8 


52 1 
3102 
1732 

501 
360 


6 

28 

21 

2 

9 


6 
5 
7 
2 
13 


333 
9959 


3 
21 


5 

1 


166 
II5I3 


1 
61 


3 
3 


32 
6213 



■69 



6 



75-81 AT EXAM 85-91 AT EXAM 

RISK PERSON I OF ANNUAL PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
FACTOR EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



35-61 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CKUDE ADJUSTED 



65-91 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE AOJUSTED 



21-69 

70-89 

90-109 

110-129 

IJO-521 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



105 


2 


to 


823 


13 


8 


610 


7 


5 


219 


5 


1 1 


163 


6 


18 


1 








951 


33 


8 



3 

11 
51 
13 
12 


123 









2 


23 


1 


10 


1 


38 


2 


83 





. 


6 


Z1 



12 
33 

19 



1 
87 



3 

13 

32 

8 

17 


108 ' 



6 
5 

7 
5 

16 


6 



7 
6 
7 
5 

15 


7 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 

COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT ' 


STD 
SE 


35-11 
15-51 
55-61 
65-71 
75-81 
85-91 




0.0 13 
0.011 
0.008 
0.006 
0.006 


. 005 
0.002 
. 003 
.003 
0.003 


0.013 
0. 00 1 
0.002 
.07 1 
0.181 


,219 
0.266 
0.223 
0. 199 
0.209 


0. 100 
0.053 
0.073 
0. 1 10 
0.298 


35-61 
65-91 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.013 
0. 0O7 


0.002 
0.002 


0.001 

0.00 1 


0.276 
0.223 


0.043 
0.O57 


35-61 
65-91 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.010 

. ao7 


0.002 
0. 002 


0.00 1 
0.00 1 


0.226 
0.205 


0.016 
0.059 


35-61 
65-91 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.003 
. 006 


0.002 
0.002 


0. 001 
0.OO2 


0. 178 
0. 187 


0.017 
0.06 1 



71 - 



RISK 
FACTOR 



NO 
YES 



TABLE 5-7 DATE=230CT55 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATt FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
BY AGE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAM' FRAMINGHAM STUDY 30-TEAR FOLLOHUP 

SEX: MALE 

EVENT I MYOCARDIAL INFARCTION 

RISK FACTOR' DIABETES .1ELLITUS 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



35-'i4 AT EXAM 
PERSON ♦ OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



4S 



23 




tS-S"* AT EXAM 
PERSON 9 OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



7486 
238 



77 

4 



SS-*"! AT EXAM 65-74 AT EXAM 

PERSON I OF ANNUAL PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



r 



75'i9 
500 



128 
in 



3504 
409 



79 
13 



II 
22 



UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 




4472 




23 




7724 




81 




5049 




142 




3913 




97 



RISK 
FACTOR 



75-84 AT EXAM 85-94 AT EXAM 

PERSON I OF ANNUAL PERSON » OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



35-64 COMBINED 
t OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



65-94 COMBINED 
« OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



NO 
YES 


900 

1 17 


35 19' 
2 9 


54 
5 


228 
IS 


6 
11 


6 
9 


114 
21 


13 
20 


13 

20 


UNKNOHN 
TOTAL 1017 



37 18 



39 



24« 


6 


6 



135 


14 


13 








LOGISTIC 


REGRESSIONS 












AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 




STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 




STD 
SE 




S5-44 

6 5-7 4 
75-81 




0.498 

0.513 

0.691 

-C1-.344 


0.517 
0.285 
0.267 
0.7 34 


0.536 
0.072 
0.010 
0.250 




0.086 

0.124 

0.211 

-0.270 




0.089 
0.069 
0.082 
0.234 




85-9<i 




















35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.682 
0.446 


0.248 
0.242 


0.0O6 
0.065 




0.132 
0.138 




0.048 
0.075 




55-64 
65-94 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.425 
0.454- 


0.250 
0.242 


0.089 
0.075 




0.082 
0.134 




0.048 
0.075 




55-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.413' 
0.374 


0.254 
0.246 


0.105 
0.129 




0.080 
0.115 




0.049 
0.076 





SEXi FEMALE 

EVENT: MYOCARDIAL INFARCTION 

RISK FACTOR: DIABETES MELLITUS 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



.(• 



RISK 

FACTOR 



NO 
YES 



55-44 AT EXAM 45-54 AT EXAM 

PERSON I OF ANNUAL PERSON i OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



557 S 

43 



9760 

199 



IS 

5 



55-64 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



10985 

528 



54 
10 



65-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON f OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



5780 
468 



54 

15 



5 
16 



UNKNOHN 
TOTAL 




5616 




9959 




21 




11515 




64 




6248 




69 



i RISK 
I FACTOR 



NO 
YES 



7 5-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



17 3S 
213 



27 
6 



8 

14 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



106 
17 



19 
59 



t OF 
EVENTS 



73 
14 



35-64 COMBINED 



CRUDE 



AGE- 
ADJUSTED 



65-94 COMBINED 



I OF 
EVENTS 



85 

25 



CRUDE 



6 
16 



AGE- 
ADJUSTED 



6 
16 



UNKNOHN 
TOTAL 




1951 




33 




123 




87 



LOOISTIC REGRESSIONS 



■ 
IDS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


3TD 
SE 


35-44 














45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 




2.114 
1.363 
1 .256 
0.60S 
1 .224 


0.628 
0.547 
0.296 

0.457 
0.909 


0.001 

o.oot 
a. 001 

0.184 
0.178 


0.296 

. 0.285 

• 0.331 

0.190 

0.424 


0.088 
0.073 
0.078 
0.143 
0.315 


'• 55-64 
; 6 5-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


1 .396 
1 . 106 


0.294 
0.238 


0.001 
0.001 


0.515 
0.307 


0.049 

0.066 


35-64 
65-94 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


1 .528 
1 .040- 


0.297 
0.240 


0.001 
0.001 


0.254 
0.288 


0.049 
0.066 


55-64 
45-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


1.240' 
0.908 


0.505 
0.247 


0.001 
0.001 


0.206 
0.252 


0.051 
0.068 



c. 



- 72 - 



TABLE J-8 DATE=230CT85 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER lOOO PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
BY AGE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAM' FRAMINOHAM STUDY 30-YEAR FOLLOWUP 

SEXi MALE 

EVENTi MYOCARDIAL INFARCTION 

RISK FACTOR: GLUCOSE IN URINE, DEFINITE OR TRACE 

PERSONS AT RISKi PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 
FACTOR 



NO 
YES 



35-^4 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



4380 
60 



23 





^S-S'i AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



7535 
16S 



76 
5 



5 

15 



55-6'4 AT EXAM 
PERSON ♦ OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



781 5 

210 



129 
12 



8 
29 



65-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



3767 
140 



84 
13 



11 
46 



UNKNOHN 
TOTAL 



32- 
4472 




23 



21 
7724 




81 



24 
8049 



1 
142 



21 
9 



6 
3913 




97 




12 



RISK 
FACTOR 



NO 
YES 



UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



75-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



986 
28 



3 
1017 



36 

1 




37 



18 
18 




18 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON » OF ANnOAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

38 
1 




39 



35-64 COMBINED 
« OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



65-94 COMBINED 
• OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



228 
17 


6 
19 


6 
17 


120 

15 


13 

44 


12 
44 


1 
2<i« 


6 
6 


8 
6 



135 



14 



13 



LOGISTIC RtGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


35-44 

45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
35-94 




1 .102 

1 .284 

1 .501 

-0.023 


0.468 
0.310 
0.31 1 
1 .032 


0.019 
0.001 
0.001 
0.982 


0.161 

0.205 

0.279 

-0.004 


0.068 
0.050 
0.053 
0.169 


35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


1 .240 
1 .333 


0.256 
0.2S6 


0.001 
0.001 


0.181 
0.242 


0.037 
0.052 


35-64 
65-94 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


1 .129 
1 .349• 


0.257 
0.286 


0.001 
0.001 


0.165 
0.245 


0.038 
0.052 


35-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


1.088■ 
1.221 


0.268 
0.294 


0.001 

0.001 


0.159 
0.221 


0.039 
0.053 



SEX! FEMALE 

EVENTi MYOCARDIAL INFARCTION 

RISK FACTOR! GLUCOSE IN URINE, DEFINITE OR TRACE 

PERSONS AT RISK' PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK ■ 
FACTOR 


PERSON 
EXAMS 


NO 
YES 


3S37 
41 


UNKNOWN 

TOTAL 


38 

:«i6 



35-44 AT EXAM 45-54 AT EXAM 

• OF ANNUAL PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 



55-64 AT EXAM 65-74 AT EXAM 

PERSON I OF ANNUAL PERSON « OF ANNUAL 



AMS 


EVENTS 


RATE 


EXAMS 


EVENTS 


RATE 


EXAMS 


EVENTS 


RATE 


9841 
94 


20 
1 


1 
5 


11346 
144 


60 
4 


3 
14 


6131 
107 


66 

3 


5 
14 


24 
9959 



21 




1 


23 
11513 



64 




3 


10 
6248 



69 




6 



75-84 AT EXAM 
RISK PERSON » OF ANNUAL 
FACTOR EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



NO 
YES 



UNKNOHN 
TOTAL 



I AGE AT 
■ EXAM 

35-44 
. 45-54 
i 55-64 

65-74 
; 75-84 
'• 85-94 

! 35-64 
I 65-94 

35-64 
65-94 

35-64 
65-94 



1919 
23 



9 
1951 



UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 



BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 



32 

1 




33 



8 

22 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



35-64 COMBINED 
• OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 



1.664 
1 .682 
0.97S 
0.9S6 
2.442 



978 
1 18 



.856 
.148- 



MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 



1 .440 
0.918 



120 S 

3 1 


21 
167 


81 
6 



123 6 


24 



87 


LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 




P-VAIUE 


1.030 ' 
0.523 
0.599 
1 .038 
1 .307 




0.106 
0.001 
0.103 
0.342 
0.062 


0.427 
0.467 




0.001 
0.017 


0.430 
0.467 




0.001 
0.014 


0.443 
0.480 




0.001 
0.056 



2 

II 



2 
10 



65-94 COMBINED 
t OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



103 
5 




108 



STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 



0.I6I 

0.187 
0.127 
0.107 
0.378 



200 
140 



183 
144 



146 
115 



6 
19 



STD 
SE 



0.100 
0.058 
0.073 
0.112 
0.202 

0.043 
0.059 

0.043 
0.059 

0.045 
0.060 



6 
t8 



- 73 



RISK 
FACTOR 



NO 
YES 



table 3-9 date=01mars6 

average annual incidence rate for event per 1000 persons at risk at exam 
bt age and level of risk factor at exam' framingmam study io-year follqwup 

sex: male 

event: myocardial infarction 

risk factor: glucose intolerance 

persons at risk: persons free of coronary heart disease 



35-<i4 AT EXAM 15-54 AT EXAM 

PERSON • OF ANNUAL PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



137 



23 





7221 
503 



6S 
13 



5 
13 



55-6'i AT EXAM 
PERSON » OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



7115 
901 



121 
21 



i 
12 



65-71 AT EXAM 
PERSON i OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



C 



3228 
685 



71 
26 



UNKNOHN 
TOTAL 




1172 




23 




7721 




81 




8019 




112 




3913 




97 



RISK 
FACTOR 



NO 
YES 



UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



75-81 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



802 

215 




1017 



33 

1 




37 



21 
9 



85-91 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

27 
12 




39 



35-61 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



65-91 COMBINED 
t OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



212 

31 


6 
1 1 


6 
10 


101 
31 


13 
17 


13 
17 



216 


6 


i 



135 


11 


11 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


55-11 
15-51 
55-61 
65-71 
75-81 




1 .026 

0.322 

0.562 

-0.817 


0.306 
0.259 
0.233 
0.535 


0.001 
0. 177 
0.016 
0.127 


0.253 

0.102 

0.211 

-0.331 


0.076 
0.075 
0.089 
0.219 


85-91 














35-61 
65-91 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.675 
0.291 


0.187 
0.20S 


0.001 
0.162 


0.179 
0.113 


0.050 
081 


35-61 
65-91 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.163 
0.269 


0.189 
0.209 


0.011 
0.197 ■ 


0.123 
0.101 


0.050 
0.081 


55-61 
65-91 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.113 
0.206 


0.191 
0.211 


0.022 
0.329 


0.118 
0.080 


O.OSI 
0.082 



SEXi FEMALE 

EVENT: MYOCARDIAL INFARCTION 

RISK FACTOR: GLUCOSE INTOLERANCE 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



(' 



RISK 
FACTOR 



NO 
YES 



UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



35- 

PERSON 
EXAMS 


11 AT EXAM 

t OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


15- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


51 AT EXAM 

« OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


5S- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


61 AT EXAM 

• OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


65- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


71 AT EXAM 

« OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


5522 
91 




9588 
371 


16 
5 


1 
7 


10503 
1010 


50 
11 


2 
7 


5398 
850 


52 

17 


5 
10 



5416 





9959 



21 


t 



11513 



61 


3 



6218 



69 


6 



RISK 

FACTOR 



NO 
YES 



75-81 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS SATE 



1581 
370 



23 

10 



7 
11 



85-91 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



too 

23 



10 
87 



35-61 COMBINED 
» OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



67 
20 



iS-91 COMBINED 
• OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



77 
41 



5 

12 



3 
12 



UNKNOHN 
TOTAL 




1951 




33 




123 



21 




87 




108 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM. 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


35-11 
15-51 
55-41 
65-71 
7 5-81 
85-91 




2.101 
1 .078 
0.711 
0.432 
2.331 


0.515 
0.301 
0.282 
0.385 
0.902 


0.001 
O.OOI 
0.009 
0.099 
0.010 


0.398 

0.305 
0.251 
0.218 
0.911 


0.098 
0.084 
0.097 
0. 1 SO 
0.355 


35-41 
65-91 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


1 .657 
0.811 


0.254 
0.215 


0.001 
0.001 


0.374 
0.301 


0.058 
0.877 


35-41 
45-91 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


1 .290 
0.783 


0.260 
0.216 


0.001 
0.001 


0.293 
0.279 


0.059 
0.077 


35-41 
65-91 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


1 .151 
0.717 


0.241 
0.220 


0.001 
O.OOI 


0.242 
0.255 


0.Q40 
0.078 



- 74 - 



FACTOR 

5<i-10<« 
105-1 K 
1 IS-12'i 
125-13^ 
135-272 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



TABLE 3-10 nATE=30MAE85 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISX AT EXAM 
BY ACE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAM: FRAMINCHAM STUDY 30-TEAR FOLLOHUP 

SEX: MALE 

EVENT: MYOCARDIAL INFARCTION 

RISK FACTOR: METROPOLITAN RELATIVE HEIGHT (PERCENT) 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



35-<i<» AT EXAM 
PERSON • Of ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



723 


1 


1 


965 


7 


« 


1122 


6 


3 


915 


7 


4 


ICl 


2 


1 








_ 


1172 


23 


3 



45-54 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1 131 
1540 
2037 
1645 
1370 

I 

7724 



7 
16 
22 




SI 



55-64 AT EXAM 6S-74 AT EXAM 

PERSON . uF ANNUAL PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EyEllTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



I 155 


23 


10 


1655 


22 


7 


2175 


37 


9 


1674 


32 


10 


1389 


25 


10 


1 








S049 


142 


9 



636 


9 


7 


351 


21 


12 


1069 


29 


14 


766 


13 


12 


54 1 


20 


IS 








_ 


3913 


97 


12 



75-84 AT EXAM 
RISK PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
FACTOR EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



35-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



35-64 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



65-94 COMBINED 
• OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



54-104 
105-1 14 
115-124 
125-134 
135-272 

UtIKNOHN 
TOTAL 



224 


9 


20 


252 


7 


14 


296 


9 


15 


155 


9 


29 


90 


3 


17 








. 


1017 


37 


15 



9 

12 






39 



31 


5 


5 


IS 


10 


10 


45 


■ 5 


6 


29 


13 


13 


65 


6 


i 


33 


14 


14 


57 


7 


7 


27 


IS 


15 


48 


7 


7 


23 


IS 


IS 














_ 




246 


6 


6 


135 


14 


13 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 

35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 

35-64 
65-94 

55-64 
65-94 

,35-64 
65-94 



COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 



-0.002 

o.oas 



UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 



BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 



MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 



002 
013 
Oil 



004 
Oil 



004 
013 



002 
007 



SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 

SE 


0.013 
0.007 
0. 005 
0.006 
0.011 


0.339 
0.219 
0.670 
0.038 
0.334 


-0.029 
0. 133 
0.036 
0.206 
0. 156 


0.210 
0. 108 
0.084 
0.099 
0.162 


0.004 
0.005 


0.28S 
0.037 


0.067 
0.177 


0.063 
O.OSS 


0.004 
0.005 


0.306 
0.022 


0.065 
0. 195 


0.064 
0.035 


0.004 
0.006 


0.663 
0.233 


0.029 
0. 106 


0.066 
0.089 



RISK 

FACTOR 



54-104 
105-1 14 
1 15-124 
125-134 
135-272 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



sex: FEMALE 

EVENT: MYOCARDIAL INFARCTION 

RISK FACTOR: METROPOLITAN RELATIVE HEIGHT (PERCENT) 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



35-44 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1694 
1430 
1058 
566 
360 



8 
56 16 



4 5-54 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



55-64 AT EXAM 
PERSON , OF AHNUAl 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



65-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON ( OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



2095 


4 


1 


2045 


14 


3 


1216 


13 


5 


2331 


4 


1 


2409 


3 


2 


1 145 


15 


7 


2107 


4 


1 


2479 


12 


2 


1395 


■ 9 


3 


1372 


1 





1743 


1 1 


3 


982 


9 


5 


2054 


8 


2 


2S37 


19 


3 


15 10 


23 


8 








. 








_ 








. 


9959 


21 


1 


IISI3 


64 


3 


6248 


69 


6 



75-84 AT EXAM 
RISK PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
FACTOR EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



85-94 AT EXAM 35-64 COMSINED 

PERSON I OF ANNUAL I OF AOE- 

EXAMS EVENTS RATE EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



65-94 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



54-104 
105-1 14 
I 15-124 
125-134 
135-272 

UNKNOHN 
TOTAL 



517 
37 5 
399 
266 
394 


1951 




33 



16 
6 
9 



41 
28 
21 
16 
17 


123 



2 


24 








3 


71 


1 


31 





a 





. 


6 


24 



19 

12 
16 
12 
28 



87 



22 

18 

25- 

13 

30 


108 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 

35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 

35-64 
65-94 

35-64 
65-94 



UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 



BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 



COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 



0.011 
0.006 
0.011 
0.0O7 
-0.003 



010 . 
003 



007 
009 



35-64 MULTIVARIATE 0.002 
65-94 MULTIVARIATE O.0Q6 



SE 
EFFICIENT 


P-VALUe 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


0.008 
0.005 
0.005 
. 003 
0. 022 


0. 137 
0.260 
0.028 
0.363 
0,395 


0.239 
0. 130 
0-231 
0.151 
-0.056 


0. 181 
0.115 
0. 106 
0. 166 
0.423 


0.004 
0.004 


0. 015 
0.060 


0.222 
0.167 


0.09 1 
0.089 


0.004 
0.004 


0. 104 
0.024 


0. 156 
0.201 


0.096 
0.089 


0.005 
0. 004 


0.669 
0.1 36 


0.044 
0. 155 


0. 102 
0.09 1 



75 - 



RISK 
fACrOR 



'i5-«9 
50-5* 
55-59 

60-85 

UNKNOHN 
TOTAL 



RISK 
FACTOR 

8-<<4 
«5-'19 
50-5<i 
55-59 
60-85 

UMKNOHN 
TOTAL 



TABLE 3-11 DATE-30^R85 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
BY AGE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAM' FRAMINGHAM STUDY iO-YEAR FOLLQHUP 

SEX I MALE 

EVENT' MYOCARDIAL INFARCTION 

RISK FACTOR: VITAL CAPACITY - HEIGHT INDEX (ML^INCMl 

PERSONS AT RISK- PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



35-'i<i AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



'•5-5', AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



26 9 

til 

7<i7 

1022 

2010 

13 
'(•172 



2 

1 



<) 

16 


23 



1062 
1125 
1653 
1739 
2135 

5 



13 
18 
16 
16 


81 



75-8<i AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



6'i9 


29 


22 


172 


2 


6 


97 


i, 


21 


65 


2 


15 


26 








8 








1017 


37 


18 



55- 
PERSQN 
EXAMS 

20i;5 

i<iao 

1835 
l<i 16 
1255 



85-91 AT EXAM 
PERSON i OF ANNUAL 

EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

Z<\ 

6 
7 
2 



39 



■. -r EXAM 
• OF ANNUAL 
EuEUTS RATE 



( 



65-7"* AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 

EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



20 
3 1 
27 



18 
8019 




112 



12 

7 
8 
10 
6 


9 



1752 
719 
7 12 
112 
216 

12 
3913 



11 

26 

13 

6 

7 

1 
97 



13 

17 

9 

7 

11 

12 
12 



35-61 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



65-91 COMBINED 
t OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



a 


10 




71 


15 


15 


34 


6 




28 


15 


15 


19 


6 




17 


10 


1 1 


47 


6 




8 


8 


9 


4a 


4 




7 


13 


1 1 










1 


25 


33 


46 


6 




135 


11 


13 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 

COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


35-11 
15-51 
55-61 
65-71 
75-81 
85-91 




0.0 19 
-0.025 
-0.018 
-O.OlO 
-0.028 


.021 
0.012 
. 009 
0.0 1 1 
0.018 


0.133 
.0.037 
0.011 
0.336 
0. 125 


0. 167 
-0.227 
-0.167 
-0.099 
-0.259 


0.213 
0. 109 
0.033 
0. 103 
0. 169 


35-61 
65-91 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


-0.028 . 
-0.017 


0.006 
0.009 


0.001 
0.051 


-0.270 
-0. 167 


0.062 
0.037 


35-61 
65-91 


8IVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


-0.011 
-0.0 15 


0. 007 
0.009 


0.019 
0. 110 


-0.131 
-0.143 


0.066 
0.089 


35-61 
65-91 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


-0.001 
-0.012 


0.007 
0.010 


0.621 
0.212 


-0.031 
-0. t 15 


0.070 
0.092 



SEX" FEMALE 

EVENT" MYOCARDIAL INFARCTION 

RISK FACTOR" VITAL CAPACITY - HEIGHT INDEX (ML/INCH) 

PERSONS AT RISK" PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 
FACTOR 



4-29 

1 30-34 

I 35-39 

10-11 

■ 15-92 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



RISK 
FACTOR 

4-29 

30-31 
35-39 
10-11 
15-92 

UNKNOMN 
TOTAL 



35-44 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
"Arts EVeWIS RATE 

122 

289 

769 
1127 
298S 



21 
56 16 

75-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



15- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 

534 
1217 
2077 
2801 
3310 

17 
9959 



54 »T EXAM 

I OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 

2 2 

3 1 
3 1 
7 1 
6 I 




21 



930 
569 
311 
1 1 1 
25 

2 
1951 



20 

10 

3 






33 



1 1 
9 
5 





8 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 

EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



80 
29 
13 




123 



25 

34 






24 



„,„,55-64 AT EXAM 65-74 AT EXAM 

PERSON t OF ANNUAL PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RJkie EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

146 1 
24 18 
3018 
2706 
1859 



13 

17 



19 
1 



21 
11513 




64 



1717 


31 


■» 


1715 


18 


5 


1529 


9 


3 


851 


6 


1 


397 


5 


6 


6 








6218 


69 


6 



35-64 COMBINED 
t OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



IS 
20 
15 
26 
1 1 


87 



65-91 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- ~ " 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



55 

30- 
12 
6 
5 


108 



10 
6 
3 
3 
6 


6 



10 
.6 
3 
3 
5 


7 



1 AGE AT 
1 EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


35-11 

15-51 
55-61 
65-71 
75-81 
85-91 




-0.021 
-0.059 
-0.039 
-0.053 
-0.062 


0.029 

0.016 
0.016 
0.021 
0.056 


35-61 
65-91 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


-0.058 
-0.050 


0.013 
0. 012 


35-61 
65-91 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIAIE 


-0.028 
-0.015 


0.011 
0.013 


35-61 
65-91 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


-0.008 
-0.039 


0.015 
0.011 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 
P-VALUE 



177 
014 
015 
026 
272 



0.001 
0.001 



0.016 
0.001 



0.609 
0.005 



STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 



153 
297 
287 
37 1 
1 17 



-0.163 
-0.380 



-0.226 
-0.324 



-0.063 
-0.291 



STD 
SE 



0.215 
0.121 

0. I 18 
0. 167 
0.379 

0. 102 
0.091 

0. 113 
0.098 

0. 122 
0. 103 



76 



TABLE 3-12 ')ATE=3C--A.'"i5 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
BY AGE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTDR AT EXAM> FRAMINGHAM STUDY 30-YEAR FOLLOHUP 

SEX' MALE 

EVENT: MYOCARDIAL INFARCTION 

RISK FACTOR: HEART RATE CPER MINUTE) 

PERSONS AT risk: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 
fACrOR 



30-67 
4S-75 
76-33 
a<i-9 1 
92-220 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



35-<(^ AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



I2S<) 
1192 
722 
579 
395 





5 
i 

5 

3 


23 



".5-5^ AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



I9'<9 
2'<90 
139'i 
1097 
79^ 


772'i 



17 
21 

in 

16 
13 


i 1 



55-6*. -r EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 

EXAMS EuENTS RATE 



2309 


27 


6 


2',90 


53 


1 1 


137"; 


25 


9 


1064 


20 


9 


812 


17 


10 








_ 


3049 


142 


9 



65-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 

EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1 183 


29 


12 


1 159 


19 


a 


624 


22 


18 


437 


12 


12 


46 


15 


16 








_ 


3913 


97 


12 



1* 

-i 



RISK 
FACTOR 



75-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON < OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



3S-64 COMBINED 
I OF ACE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



65-94 COMBINED 
» OF ACE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



30-67 
68-75 
76-83 
84-9 1 
92-220 

UNKNOHN 
TOTAL 



301 


12 


20 


296 


12' 


20 


192 


5 


13 


123 


5 


20 


105 


3 


14 








- 


1017 • 


37 


18 



1 1 

12 
10 
5 




39 



49 


4 


4 


41 


14 


14 


80 


6 


6 


32 


1 1 


1 1 


44 


6 


6 


27 


16 


17 


40 


7 


7 


17 


14 


14 


33 


a 


8 


18 


16 


15 





_ 







_ 




246 


6 


6 


135 


14 


13 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 


" 


0.026 
0.0 19 
0.010 
0.012 
-0.005 


0.015 
0.008 
0.006 
0.007 
0.013 


0.080 
0.027 
0.098 
0.10 1 
0.676 


0.326 
0.233 
0. 134 

0. 159 
-0.072 


0. 187 
0. 105 
0.03 1 
0.097 
0. 172 


85-94 














35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.015 , 
0.007 


0.005 
0.006 


0.002 
0.238 


0. 186 
0.099 


0.06 1 
0.084 


35-64 
65-94 


8IVARIATE 
EIVARIATE 


0.015 
0.007 


0.005 
0.006 


0.002 
0.239 


0. 184 
0.099 


0.06 
0.084 


35-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.003 

0.006 


0.005 
0.006 


0.527 
0.340 


0.041 
0.082 


0.065 
0.086 



SEX: FEMALE 

EVENT; MYOCARDIAL INFARCTION 

RISK FACTOR: HEART RATE (PER MINUTE) 

PERSONS AT risk: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 
FACTOR 

30-67 
68-75 
76-83 
84-91 
92-220 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



RISK 
FACTOR 



i30-«7 
,68-75 

76-83 
84-9 1 
92-220 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



Si-All AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

1092 
1803 
1051 

939 

731 


56 16 

75-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



45-54 AT EXAM 
PERSON < OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



55-64 AT EXAM 65-7t .AT EXAM 

PERSON . OF ANNUAL PERSON » OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



360 


7 


10 


462 


4 


4 


428 


12 


14 


330 


4 


6 


37 1 


6 


8 








. 


1951 


33 


8 



1897 
3244 
19 1 1 

1604 
1303 


6 

6 
4 
2 

3 


2 
1 
1 
1 
1 


2305 
3468 
2351 
1780 
1609 


3 
17 
16 
12 
16 


1 

2 
3 
3 
5 


1103 
1663 
1358 
1089 
1030 


15 
19 
10 
16 
9 


7 
6 
4 
7 
4 



9959 



21 


1 



11513 


a 

64 


3 



6248 



■69 


6 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



26 
32 
24 
2J 
18 



35-64 COMBINED 
» OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 




123 



2 


38 














3 


«s 


1 


28 





. 


6 


24 



9 
23 
2t 
15 
19 


87 



65-94 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



24 




23 




22 




23 




16 


" 6 





. 


0»- 


i 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-34 
85-94 




-0.0 14 

0.027 

-0,006 

-0.002 

0.012 


0.019 
0. 0O8 
0.009 
0.015 
0.030 


0.459 
0.001 
0.533 
0.862 
0.695 


-0.17 1 

0.348 
-0.078 
-0.031 

0. 161 


0.2JI 
0. 103 
0.124 
0. 178 
0.411 


35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.020 . 
-0.004 


0.007 
0.007 


0.007 
0.627 


0.251 
-0.048 


0.094 
0.099 


35-64 
65-94 


BIVARIATE 
aiVARIATE 


0.019 
-0.004 


0.007 
0.007 


0.010 
0.586 


0.24Z 
-0.053 


0.093 
0.098 


35-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.006 
-O.QOS 


0.008 
. 007 


0.448 
0.262 


0.079 
-0.111 


0. 104 
0.099 



77 - 



RISK 
FACTOR 



NONE 

I- 10 
1 1-20 
21-1.0 
'01-90 

UNKNOHN 
TOTAL 



TABLE 3-13 DATE-OIAPR85 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
BY AOE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT eXAM> FRAMINGHAM STUDY 30-YEAR FOLLOWUP 

SEX I MALE 

EVENT' MYOCARDIAL INFARCTION 

RISK FACTOR! CIGARETTES SMOKED (NUMBER PER DAY) 

PERSONS AT RISKi PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



JS-"."* AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAJ1S EVENTS RATE 



1385 




f 


433 




3 


1<<85 


1 1 


H 


987 




5 


IS8 




3 


24 








<i<i72 


23 


3 



■iS-S-^ AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



3068 

7 16 

2051 

1602 

252 

35 
772<< 



13 

7 

33 

25 

2 



14 
5 



SS-ON AT EXAM 65-74 AT EXAM 

?v?S?" J S*" ANNUAL PERSON • OF ANNUAL 

EXAMS Events rate exams events rate 



4295 


56 


7 


769 


3 


5 


1682 


45 


13 


1 1 19 


30 


13 


162 


5 


9 


22 








8049 


142 


9 



26 1 1 


69 


13 


374 


7 


9 


526 


13 


12 


369 


6 


8 


27 


1 


19 


6 


1 


83 


3913 


97 


12 



( 



RISK 

FACTOR 



NONE 

1-10 
1 1-20 
21-40 
41-90 

UNKNOHN 
TOTAL 



75-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



797 


31 


19 


92 


3 


16 


77 


1 


6 


46 


2 


22 


5 








3 





. 


1017 


37 


18 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

27 
6 
5 
1 



39 



35-64 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



45-94 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



72 


4 


4 


101 


15 


14 


18 


S 


5 


10 


1 I 


10 


89 


9 


9 


14 


12 


1 1 


60 


i 


9 


8 


10 


1 1 


6 


5 


6 


1 


16 


15 


t 


6 


5 


1 


83 


65 


24< 


6 


6 


135 


14 


13 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-54 
85-94 




0.014 

0.024 

0.021 

-0.007 

-0.018 


0.0 14 
0.007 
0.005 
0.010 
0.023 


0.308 
0.001 
0.001 
0.475 
0.428 


0.204 

0.364 

0.29 1 

-0.079 

-0.I6S 


0.200 
0.099 
0.072 
0.110 
0.208 


35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.017. 
-0.011 


0.004 
0.009 


0.001 
0.22S 


0,254 
-0. 1 19 


o.osa 

0.098 


35-44 
65-94 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.023 
-0.009 


0.004 
0.009 


0.001 
0.305 


0.S35 
-0. 101 


0.057 
0.098 


35-64 
45-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.025 
-0.006 


0.004 
0.009 


0.001 
0.484 


0.370 
-0.069 


0.057 
0.099 



SEX" FEMALE 

EVENTi MYOCARDIAL INFARCTION 

RISK FACTORi CIGARETTES SMOKED (NUMBER PER DAY) 

PERSONS AT RISK' PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 
FACTOR 

NONE 

1-10 
n-20 
ZI-40 
41-90 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



35-44 AT EXAM 
PERSON « OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

2582 

1314 

1J7 1 

298 

22 

29 
54 14 



4 5-54 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



55-64 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



45-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



5528 


to 


I 


7595 


30 


2 


4843 


53 


5 


1726 


2 


1 


1566 


1 1 


4 


424 


7 


4 


2009 


4 


t 


1496 


15 


4 


548 


9 


8 


622 


3 


2 


602 


6 


5 


172 








37 








16 


2 


43 










37 








38 








19 








9959 


21 


1 


11513 


64 


3 


4248 


49 


6 



RISK 
FACTOR 

NONE 

1-10 
11-20 
21-40 
41-90 

UNKNOUN 
TOTAL 



7 5-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1710 


28 


8 


137 


J 


1 1 


84 


2 


12 


14 














- 


4 








1951 


33 


8 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



117 
4 
2 




123 



26 






35-44 COMBINED 
• OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



40 
13 
22 

to 
2 


87 



1 
1 

2 

3 

13 



2 



2 

2 

3 

27 


2 



65-94 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- - 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 




108 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



ACE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


35-44 
45-54 
55-44 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 




' 0.024 

0.04 1 

-0.003 

0.009 


0.018 
0.010 
0.014 
0.032 


0. 143 
0.00 1 
0.865 
0.787 


0.267 

0.388 

-0.021 

0.044 


0. 182 
0.092 
0. 124 
0. 14 1 


35-44 
45-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.035 
-0.004 


0.008 
0.015 


0.001 
0.672 


0.348 
-0.044 


0.084 
0. 103 


35-64 
45-94 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.042 
0.000 


0.008 
0.015 


0.001 
0.991 


0.415 
0.001 


0.082 
0. 103 


35-44 
45-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.044 
0.007 


0.008 
O.OIS 


0.001 
0.649 


0.454 
0.047 


O.OSS 
0. 103 



(. 



- 78 



TABLE l-\'< DATE = 23aCT85 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
BY AGE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAM^ FRAMIHGHAM STUDY JO-YEAR FOLLOHUP 

SEX! MALE 

EVENT- MYOCARDIAL INFARCTION 

RISK FACTOR: ALBUMIN IN URINE, DEFINITE 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 
FACTOR 



NO 
YES 



35-'4'4 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



<4S66 
70 



23 





45-54 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



7599 
99 



78 
3 



5 
15 



55-64 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



7835 
184 



137 
4 



9 
1 I 



65-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



J792 

lis 



92 
5 



12 
22 



UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



36 
4472 




23 



26 
7724 




St 



27 
8049 



1 
142 



19 

9 



6 
3913 




97 




12 



RISK 
FACTOR 



NO 
YES 



UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



75-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



989 
25 



3 
1017 



36 
1 




37 



18 

20 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

32 
7 




J9 



35-64 COMBINED 
t OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



65-94 COMBINED 
f OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



238 

7 


6 
10 


6 
10 


129 
6 


13 
20 


13 
21 


1 
24« 


6 

6 


8 
6 



135 



14 



13 



LOeiSTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 

COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-34 
35-94 




1 .103 
0.222 
0.603 
0.098 


0.597 
0.513 
0.469 
1 .035 


.065 
0.664 
0.199 
0.924 


0.124 

0.033 

n . 102 

0.015 


0.067 
0.077 
0.079 
0.161 


35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.509 
0.435 


0.387 
0.426 


0. 189 
0.307 


0.067 
0.074 


0.051 
0.072 


35-64 
65-94 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.384 

0.421 - 


0.388 
0.427 


0.323 
0.324 


0.050 
0.071 


0.051 
0.072 


35-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


-0.150' 
0.042 


0.425 
0.439 


0.723 
0.923 


-0.020 
0.007 


0.056 
0.074 



SEX: FEMALE 

EVENT: MYOCARDIAL INFARCTION 

RISK FACTORi ALBUMIN IN URINE, DEFINITE 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 
FACTOR 



I NO 
1 YES 



UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



35-44 AT EXAM 45-54 AT EXAM 

PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



5353 
225 



55-64 AT EXAM 



65-74 AT EXAM 



38 
56 16 



RSON 
AMS 


• OF 
EVENTS 


ANNUAL 

RATE 


PERSON 
EXAMS 


1 OF 

EVENTS 


ANNUAL 

RATE 


PERSON 
EXAMS 


f OF 
EVENTS 


ANNUAL 
RATE 


9656 
278 


21 



1 



11263 
225 


62 

2 


3 
4 


6118 
120 


65 
4 


5 
17 


25 
9959 



21 




I 


25 
115IJ 



64 



J 


to 

6248 



■ 69 



6 



I RISK 
I FACTOR 



NO 
YES 



UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



75-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON ( OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1904 
38 



9 
1951 



33 






3J 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



AGE AT 

EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 

COEFFICI 


35-44 
45-54 
55-6^ 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 




0.483 
1 .167 

2.442 


0.722 
0.524 

1 .307 


35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


-0.164 
0.917 


0.716 
0.465 


35-64 
65-94 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.068 
0.91 1 


0.718 
0.466 


35-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


-0.525' 
0.583 


0.766 
0.481 



120 
J 


5 
1 


21 85 

167 2 



t2J 



6 



24 87 




LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 




SE 


P-VALUE 



35-64 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



0.504 
0.026 



0.062 



0.819 
0.049 



0.924 
0.051 



0.493 
0.225 



2 

2 


103 

5 


t 



2 



10?. 




STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 




STD 
SE 


0.067 
0. 160 




0.100 
0.072 


0.378 




0.202 


-0.027 
0.126 




0.116 
0.064 


0.011 
0.126 




0.116 
0.064 


-0.085 
0.080 




0. 124 
0.066 



65-94 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



6 
15 



- 79 



TABLE 5-15 • DATE=230CT85 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
BY AGE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAMi FRAMIHGHAM STUDY 30-YEAR FOLLOWUP 

SEX: MALE 

EVENT: MYOCARDIAL INFARCTION 

RISK FACTOR: HEART ENLARGEMENT BY X-RAY 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



( 



RISK 
FACTOR 

NO 

MILD 

DEFINITE 

UNKNOMN 
TOTAL 



J5-<»<i AT EXAM <i5-5<i AT EXAM 

PERSON I OF ANNUAL PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



',01,1 
185 
219 

5 

<<<472 



20 2 
2 5 
1 2 




23 



6383 
650 
687 



7724 



67 
6 
S 


81 



55-64 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

5967 92 8 

962 20 10 

1119 30 13 



1 
8049 




142 



65-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



2584 

573 
751 


3915 



55 

10 
32 


97 



11 

9 

21 



RISK 
FACTOR 

NO 

MILD 

DEFINITE 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



75-84 AT EXAM 85-94 AT EXAM 

PERSON « OF ANNUAL PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



589 
178 
250 


1017 



15 

5 

17 


37 



13 
14 
34 



29 

5 
5 


39 



35-64 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



65-94 COMBINED 
» OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



179 


5 


6 


71 


11 


1 1 


28 


8 


7 


15 


10 


10 


39 


10 


8 


49 


24 


23 














. 




246 


6 


6 


135 


14 


13 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 

SE ■ 


35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-34 




0.142 
0.025 
0.234 
0.335 
0.516 


0.402 
0. ISO 
0. 104 
0.117 
0. 187 


0.724 
0.389 
0.006 
0.004 
0.006 


066 
0.015 
0.205 
0.266 
0.436 


0.183 
0.110 
0.075 
0.093 
0.158 


85-94 














35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.297 
0.392 


0.085 
0.098 


0.001 
0.001 


0.139 
0.316 


0.054 
0.079 


35-44 
65-94 


SIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.190 
0.381- 


0.087 
0.098 


0.029 
0.001 


0.121 
0.308 


0.055 
0.079 


35-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


» . 134 
0.232 


0.093 
0.105 


0,150 
0.027 


0,085 
0.187 


0.059 
0.085 



SEX I FEMALE 

EVENT: MYOCARDIAL INFARCTION 

RISK FACTOR: HEART ENLARGEMENT BY X-RAY 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



35-44 AT EXAM 
RISK PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
FACTOR EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



45-54 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



55-64 AT EXAM 65-74 AT EXAM 

PERSON • OF ANNUAL PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



NO 

MUD 

DEFINITE 


3164 
199 
245 




UNKNOHN 

TOTAL 


8 
5616 




RISK 
FACTOR 


75- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


84 AT EXAM 
t OF ANN 
EVENTS RAT 


NO 

MUD 
DEFINITE 


702 
37 3 
876 


7 5 
11 15 
15 9 


UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



1951 



33 8 



AGE AT 
EXAM 

35-44 

45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 

35-64 
65-94 

35-64 
65-94 

35-64 
65-94 



8017 
943 
993 


14 
3 
4 


1 
2 
2 


7 522 
1769 
2218 


31 

11 
22 


2 
3 
5 


3191 

1150 
1907 


28 
10 
31 


4 
4 
8 


6 
9959 



21 




1 


4 
11513 



64 



3 



6248 



69 


6 



85-94 AT EXAM 35-64 COMSINED 

PERSON I OF ANNUAL I OF AGE- 

EXAMS EVENTS RATE EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



65-94 COMBINES 
• OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 



0.437 
0.441 
0.315 
0.199 
-0.340 



UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 



BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 



MULTIVARIATE 
tlULTIVARIATE 



437 
291 



424 
239- 



314 
149 



32 2 
30 2 
61 2 


31- 
33 
16 


46 
14 

27 



123 6 


24 


« 
87 


LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 




P-VALUe 


0.271 
0.140 
0.135 
0.202 
0.484 




0.107 
0.002 
0.019 
0.323 
0.484 


0.119 
0.108 




0.001 
0.007 


0.124 

o.no 




0.001 
0.030 


0.134 
0.115 




0.019 
0. 195 



37 
23 
43 

9 
108 



STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 



0.279 
0.351 
0.277 
0.178 
-0.286 



445 
26 



295 
213 



219 
133 



STD 

SE 



0.173 
0.111 

0.118 
0.181 
0.408 



083 
097 



084 
098 



.093 
.103 



80- 



TABLE 3-16 nATE-3C"A.'!35 

AVERAGE ANNUAl INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
BY AGE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAM' FRAMIHGHAM STUDY JO-YEAR FOLLOWUP 

SEX: MALE 

EVENT: MYOCARDIAL INFARCTION 

RISK FACTOR-- LEFT VENTRICULAR HYPERTROPHY BY ELECTROCARDIOGRAM 

PERSONS AT RISK' PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



35-<i'< AT EXAM 
RISK PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
FACTOR EXArtS EVENTS RATE 



"iS-S-i AT EXAM 55-6'. AT EXAM 

PERSON t OF ANNUAL PERSON . OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



65-7'i AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



NO 

BORDER 
DEFINITE 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



436<i 

7S 







23 



a 


23 



7<i'37 
132 
95 


772.4 



77 
3 
1 


91 



5 
1 1 
5 



7693 
210 
K6 


!0<i9 



130 

5 
7 


^2 



S 
12 
21 



3703 
90 
120 


391J 



79 
6 
12 


97 



1 1 
33 
50 



TS-li AT EXAM 
RISK PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
FACTOR EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



S5-9<i AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



ii-i'i COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUdE ADJUSTED 



65-9'i COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



NO 

BORDER 

DEFINITE 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



9<i9 
37 
31 


1017 



a 

37 



14 

32 



31 
2 
3 


39 



230 


6 


6 


I 11 


12 


12 


i 


10 


9 


7 


27 


29 


i 


IS 


1 1 


11 


15 


16 





. 







_ 




Z<|< 


6 


6 


135 


11 


13 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


35-11 
15-51 

55-61 
65-71 
75-81 
85-91 




0T25I 
0.508 
0.315 
0.223 


0.355 
0. 157 

0, 151 
0.370 


0.179 
0.007 
0.001 
0.516 


0.'o61 
0. 156 
0.315 
0.086 


or09 1 
0.058 
0.057 
0. 113 


35-61 
65-91 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.176 
0.70S 


0. 165 
0.111 


0.001 
0,001 


0. 127 
0.267 


0. Oil 
0.053 


35-61 
65-91 


BIVARIATE 
flIVARIATE 


0.356 
0.703. 


0. 166 
0. Ill 


0.020 
0.001 


0. IDS 
0.265 


0.011 
0.053 


35-61 
65-91 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.1S1- 
0.159 


0. 178 
0. 155 


0.30 1 
O.OOj 


0.019 
0. 173 


0.018 
0.058 



SEX: FEMALE 

EVENT: MYOCARDIAL INFARCTION 

RISK FACTOR: LEFT VENTRICULAR HYPERTROPHY BY ELECTROCARDIOGRAM 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 
FACTOR 

NO 

BORDER 

DEFINITE 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



J5-1<t AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVEHTS RATE 

5563 
38 

15 


56 16 



15-S4 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



55-41 AT EXAM 65-71 AT EXAM 

PERSON I OF ANNUAL PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVEHTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



979S 

107 

51 


21 





1 




11137 
226 

150 


60 

I 
3 


3 
2 
ID 


5966 

131 
lis 


59 
1 
6 


5 
15 
20 



9959 


• 
21 


1 



11513 



61 


3 



6218 



69 


6 



75-81 AT CYAM 
RISK PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
FACTOR EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



R5-91 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVEHTS RATE 



35-41 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE. ADJUSTED 



65-91 COMBINED 
• OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE AOJUSTED- 



NO 

BORDER 
DEFINITE 

UNKNOMN 
TOTAL 



1833 
19 
69 


1951 



31 


2 


33 



8" 


11 



11 I 
6 
6 


123 



5 23 



1 83 



21 



8Z 

1 
1 


87 



2 
1 

n 



»5 
1 
9 



a 

108 



6 

1 1 

20 



6 
1 1 
20 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


35-14 

15-51 
55-61 
65-74 
75-81 
85-91 




0.561 
0.761 
0. 116 
0.596 


0.J02 
0.202 
0.391 
0.625 


0.062 
0.001 
0.7 12 
0.310 


0. 119 
0.255 
0.058 
0.282 


0.080 
0.068 
0. 156 
0.296 


35-61 
65-91 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.791 
0.616 


0.264 
0.17 1 


0.003 
0.001 


0. 169 
0.217 


0.056 
0.060 


35-61 
65-91 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.599 
0.58 1 - 


0.268 
0. 172 


0.025 
0.001 


0. 127 
0.205 


0.057 
0.06 1 


35-61 
65-91 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.17 1' 
0.130 


0.292 
0. 182 


0.559 
0.0 18 


0.036 
0. 151 


0.062 
0.064 



;1 - 



TAlie J-17 0«Tt.tJN0Vi3 

IVCitOe tHNUAl INCIBtNCE «*T€ F0« tveHT FM 1000 PtHSONS *T IIS« »T tXAH 

IT toe »MD ICVei OF «I5» F*CTO« *T eXAH- f«A«IMOH*« STUOT 10-Tt*« FOILOHUP 

eveMT: HTOCAHOIAL INFAnCTIOM 

»I3» FACTOm INT»AVeMT»ICUI.A» COKOUCTIOM OeFKT <HITH 9M IKTE«VAl HOm TMAM 0.11 SICOHOJ 

PUSONS Ar tISKi FeRSONS FREE OF CORONART HEART DISEASE 



33-44 AT CXAH 
RISK FERSON I OF ANNUAl 

FACTOR EXAliS CVENT3 RATE 



NO 41 A I 

INCOBFIETE 273 

COMPLETE 3i 



UNKNOHN 
TOTAL 




4472 




23 



43-34 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAHS EVENTS RATE 



721 J 

444 

«3 

g 

7724 



?3 
3 




«1 



33-44 AT EXAN 
PERSON » OF ANNUAl 
EXAW EVENTS RATE 



43-74 AT VCAU 

PERSON I OF ANNUAl 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



731* 
434 

207 


124 

14 

2 


1 

13 
3 


3344 

1«] 
144 


If 
3 

3 


12 
1 4 

9 



1049 



142 


3 



3913 



97 


12 



RISK 
FACTOR 

NO 

INCOHFIETE 
COHFLETE 

UNKNOHN 
TOTAL 



7 3-14 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



911 
21 

71 



1017 



33 

4 


37 



II 



2* 



13-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 

EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

31 

2 
4 

• 

3» 



33-44 COHIINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



2Z3 
2t 

3 

t 
244 



43-94 COMIINED 
• OF iCE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



123 
5 

7 



135 



14 
12 
14 



14 
11 
12 



LOOISTIC REGRCSSIOia 



AOe AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


se 

COCFFICIENT 


F-VAlue 


STANDARDIZCD 
CBEFFICIEUT 


STB 

se 


45-34 




-0.524 
0.129 
0.11S 

-0.09* 

0.134 


0.959 
0.353 
0.203 
0.241 
0.279 


0.515 

0.715 
0.340 
0.700 
0.433 


-0.155 
0.031 
0.043 

-0.043 
0.073 


0.214 

0.103 
0.071 

no 

0. 132 


35—44 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


a. 142 

-0.802 


0.175 
0.184 


0.411 
0.919 


0.047 
-0.001 


0.15S 
0.017 


33-44 


IIVARIATE 
IIVARIATE 


0.044 
-0.020- 


S.173 
0.1 «« 


0.702 
0.915 


0.022 
•0.009 


0.051 

0.0*7 


35-44 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


-o.osa' 

-0.003 


O.ltS 

• .1*9 


a.99t 
a.9(« 


-0.000 
-0.001 


0.042 
0.019 



SEC" FEMIE 

EVENT. HTOCARDIAl INFARCTION 

«l5nyJ'^I?*«i!!^''inUI21'=^ki! COHBUCTION DEFECT (HITM ORS IMTERVAl MORE THAN 0.11 SECOND) 
PERSONS AT RISK' PERSONS FREE OF CORONART NEART DISEASE ' 



35-44 AT EXAM 
RISK PERSON I OF ANNUAL 

FACTOR EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



45-54 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAl 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



HO 

INCOMFIETE 

COMflETE 

UNKNOHN 
TOIAl 



5529 

75 
12 



3*14 



977« 

144 

44 

« 
9959 



21 




21 



1 



55-44 AT eXAN 

PERSON I OF ANNUAl 
EVENTS RATE 



EXAMS 

11113 
1*7 
<4J 


11513 



42 

I 
1 


44 



65-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON f OF ANNUAL 
EVEHTS RATE 



EXAMS 

4027 
115 
10* 



4Z4« 



47 

I 

1 

■ 8 
49 



RISK 
FACTOR 



75-** AT EXAM 15-94 AT EXAM 

PERSON I OF ANNtlAl PERSON • OF ANNUAL 

EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



•fO 1*47 JZ 9 

IMCOMflETE 34 I 14 

COMPLETE 4* I 



UNKNOWN 

TOTAL 1951 



AGE AT 

EXAM 

33-«4 
45-54 
55-44 

45-74 
73-04 
«S-94 

35-44 UNIVARIATE 
45-94 UNIVARIATE 



33-44 
43-94 



35-44 
45-94 



IIVARIATE 
IIVARIATE 



MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 



33 



COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTO* 



• .914 

-0.1t« 

-a.«4s 



0.182 

-a. SI 4 



-0.0*9 
-0.354. 



35-44 COMIINED 
I OF tOE- 

EVENTS CRUBE AOJUSTgD 



0.011- 
-0.343 



H7 * 

1 

5 a 


2* 



a 


15 

1 

1 


a a 

IZ3 * 


Z4 


t 

17 


LOOISTIC REORESSIONS 


se 

COeFFICIEHT 




F-v«iue 


a. 4*1 

0.4*2 

a. 7*4 • 




a. 155 

a. 79* 

0.412 


0.475 
0.397 




0.130 
0.429 


0.4*9 
0.395 




0.IS3 

0.j«« 


a. 4*9 
0.399 




9*2 

0.343 



45-94 CSMSINED 
t OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



185 
2 
1 


18* 



STANDARDIZED 
CS EFFICIENT 



1.821 

-8.034 

-8.Z49 



a, 

-0. 



021 

108 



-0.914 
-0.113 



0.082 
-8.113 



STD 
SE 



B.S17 

a.iss 
a.js* 



.099 

. 12* 



09* 

125 



098 
127 



82 



TABLE J-18 DATE=230CT85 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
BY AGE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAM' FRAMIHGHAM STUDY 30-YEAR FOLLOWUP 

SEX: MALE 

EVENT: MYOCARDIAL INFARCTION 

RISK FACTOR: DEFINITE NONSPECIFIC T-HAVE OR 5T-SEGMENT ABNORMALITY BY ELECTROCARDIOGRAM 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 
FACTOR 


35- 

PERSON 
EXAMS 


<,<> AT EXAM 

« OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


■iS- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


5'* AT EXAM 

J OF ■ ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


NO 
YES 


<<362 

no 


19 


Z 
18 


7352 
372 


78 5 
3 ■< 


UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 


a 

"1«72 



23 


3 



772<t 



81 5 


RISK 
FACTOR 


75- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


8^ AT EXAM 

« OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


85- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


9^ AT EXAM 

t OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


NO 
YES 


830 
187 


30 
7 


la' 

19 


28 
1 1. 




UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



1017 



37 


IS 



39 





SS-ti* AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



7'<«2 
587 




30'49 



129 
13 




1:i2 



9 
1 1 



65-7<i AT EXAM 
PERSON » OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



31472 
<<<<1 




3913 



35-6'i COMBINED 
t OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



226 
20 




2<46 



6 
10 



83 
1^ 




97 



12 

16 



65-91 COMBINED 
• OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



113 
22 




135 



13 
17 



U 



13 
17 



13 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


35-<i4 
US-SI 
55-61 
65-71 
75-81 




2.155 
-0.277 
0.253 
0.292 
0.036 


0,.559 
0.591 
0.291 
0.293 
0.128 


0.001 
0.639 
0.390 
0.320 
0.932 


0.331 
-0.059 
0.066 
0.C92 
0.011 


0.087 
0.126 
0.077 
0.093 
0. 166 


85-91 














35-61 
65-91 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.169 
0.286 


0.2J5 
0.237 


0.016 
0.228 


0.105 
0.096 


0.053 
0.079 


35-61 
65-91 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.251 
0.250- 


0.237 
0.238 


0.230 
0.291 


0.061 
0.031 


0.053 
0.080 


35-61 
6 5-91 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


-0.106' 
0.171 


0.252 
0.211 


0.675 
0.177 


-0.021 
0.057 


0.056 
0.081 



SEX: FEMALE 

EVENT: MYOCARDIAL INFARCTION 

RISK FACTOR-. DEFINITE NONSPECIFIC T-WAVE OR ST-SEGMENT ABNORMALITY BY ELECTROCARDIOGRAM 

PERSONS AT RISK' PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



55-61 AT EXAM 



65-71 AT EXAM 



RISK 
FACTOR 


PERSON 
EXAMS 


t OF 
EVENTS 


ANNUAL 
RATE 


PERSON 
EXAMS 


1 OF 
EVENTS 


ANNUAL 
RATE 


PERSON 
EXAMS 


1 OF 
EVENTS 


ANNUAL 
RATE 


PERSON 
EXAMS 


» OF 

EVENTS 


ANNUAL 
RATE 




NO 
YES 


5517 
99 






9513 
116 


19 
2 


1 

2 


10617 
366 


51 
10 


3 
6 


5523 
720 


56 
13 


5 
9 




UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



5616 







9959 



21 


1 



11513 



61 


3 



6218 



69 


6 




RISK 
FACTOR 


75- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


81 AT EXAM 

1 OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


85- 

PERSON 
EXAMS 


91 AT EXAM 

t OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


35- 
t OF 
EVENTS 


61 COMBINED 65 
AGE- ■ e OF 
CRUDE ADJUSTED EVENTS 


-94 COMBINED 

AGE- 
CRUDE ADJl 


JS 


NO 
YES 


1632 
319 


25 

8 


8' 
13 


97 
26 


1 
2 


21 
3S 


75 
12 


1 
1 


2 
3 


85 
23 


6 
11 




6 



UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



1951 



33 


8 



123 



6 


21 



87 


2 


2 



108.- 


6 




7 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STO 
SE 


35-11 

15-51 
55-61 
65-71 
75-81 
85-91 




0.881 
0.829 
0.586 
0.503 
0.661 


0.715 
0.316 
0.310 
0.111 
0.896 


0.235 
0.017 
0.059 
0.221 
0.160 


0.177 
■ 0.219 
0.187 
0.186 
0.271 


0.119 
0.091 
0.099 
0.152 
0.367 


35-61 
65-91 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


1 .097 
0.622 


0.312 
0.237 


0.001 
0.009 


0.211 
0.203 


0.069 
0.079 


35-61 
65-91 


BIVARIATE 
3IVARIATE 


0.766 
.557 . 


0.311 
0.239 


0.015 
0.020 


0.168 
0.136 


0.069 
0.030 


35-61 
65-91 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.129 ■ 
.171 


0.332 
0.210 


0.196 
0.018 


0.091 
0.153 


0.073 
0.080 



3 - 



TABLE 4-1 DATE-05AUG8 5 

AVERAGE AHIIUAL INCIDEMCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
BY AGE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAM: FRAMINCHAM STUDY 30-YEAR FOLLOHUP 

SEX: MALE 

EVENT: UNRECOGNIZED MYOCARDIAL INFARCTION 

RISK FACTOR: SYSTOLIC BLOOD PRESSURE, FIRST EXAMIriCR CMM HG) 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



( 



SS-tt AT EXAM 
RISK PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
FACTOR EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



«5-5* AT EXAM 55-6'i AT EXAM 

PERSON I OF ANNUAL PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
E»AMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



65-71 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



71.-1 19 
120- 1:9 
lHO-159 
160-179 
liSO-lOO 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



1223 

2165 

i<, 1 

19 1 

52 


<i'472 



1769 


1 





3417 


3 





1732 


S 


2 


567 


2 


2 


239 


1 


2 








_ 


7724 


15 


1 



KiliO 




1 


3166 




1 


2090 


17 


•1 


9 16 




J 


'137 




8 








. 


8049 


39 


2 



548 








134 1 


8 


3 


1 194 


13 


5 


552 


10 


9 


278 


6 


1 1 








_ 


3913 


37 


5 



RISK 
FACTOR 

74-1 19 
120-139 
140-159 
160-179 
180-300 

UNKNOHN 
TOTAL 



75-84 AT EXAM 85-94 AT EXAM 

PERSON • OF ANNUAL PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

7 

15 
1 1 

4 

2 


39 



120 


2 


S 


345 


4 


6 


315 


7 


1 1 


153 


2 


7 


84 


2 


12 








_ 


I0I7 


17 


8 



35-64 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



65-94 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



5 


1 





2 


1 


12 


1 





12 • 


4 


27 


3 


3 


20 


7 


7 


2 


2 


12 


8 


8 


5 


4 


8 


1 1 





_ 







_ 


59 


1 


1 


54 


5 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STO 
SE 


35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 




0.014 
0.026 
O.OZS 
0.024 
0.007 


0.023 
O.OlO 
0.005 
0.006 
O.OII 


0.541 
0.010 
0.001 
0.001 
0.513 


0.238 
0.504 
0.562 . 
0.555 
0. 154 


0.390 
0. 197 
0.120 
0. I2S 
0.235 


35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.028 
0.020 


0.005 
0.005 


0.00 1 
0.001 


0.573 
0.458 


0.092 
0. 1 13 


35-64 
65-94 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.024 
0.020 


0.005 
0.005 


O.OOI 
0.001 


0.491 
0.467 


0.095 
0. IIS 


35-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.021 
0.014 


0.005 
0.005 


0.001 
0.009 


0.420 
0.320 


0. 105 
0. 122 



SEX> FEMALE 

EVENT! UNRECOGNIZED MYOCARDIAL INFARCTION 

RISK FACTOR' SYSTOLIC BLOOD PRESSURE, FIRST EXAMINER (MM HG) 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



35-44 AT EXAM 
RISK PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
FACTOR EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



45-54 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



55-64 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



65-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



74-119 
120-139 
140-159 
160- 179 
180-300 

UNKNOHN 
TOTAL 



2493 

2244 

675 

156 

50 


56 16 



27 14 
3982 

2053 
768 
442 


9959 



1979 
4056 
3025 
1560 
893 


2 
2 
8 
8 

7 


1 

1 
3 
4 



11513 



27 


1 



647 
1747 
2013 
1155 

686 


6248 



2 
4 
7 
3 
6 


22 



75-84 AT EXAM 
RISK PERSON • OF ANNUAL 

FACTOR EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



85-«4 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



35-4<t COMBINED 
• OF AOE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



65-94 COMBINED 

I OF AGE-_ 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



74-1 19 
120-139 
140-159 
160-179 
180-300 

UNKNOHN 
TOTAL 



133 


2 


8 


465 


2 


2 


626 


1 


1 


451 


4 


4 


276 


4 


7 








- 


1951 


13 


3 



8 

38 
29 
31 
17 


123 



2 










3 


3 


7 










2 


1 


10 


1 





-10 


2 


2 


9 


2 


2 




2 


2 


7 


3 


2 


10 


5 


5 





_ 






- 




35 


1 





38 


2 


2 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 




0.009 
0.024 
0.014 
0.011 


0.013 
0. 005 
0.008 
0.010 


0.522 

0.001 
0.088 
0.287 


0. 196 
0.592 
0.327 
0.269 


8.307 
0. 134 
0.192 
0.253 


55-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.025 
0.012 


0.005 
0.006 


0.001 
0.056 


0.592 
0.282 


0.107 
0.I4S 


35-64 
65-94 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.020 
0.010 


0.005 
0.006 


O.OOI 
0. 100 


0.48 1 
0.247 


0.120 
0. ISO 


55-44 
6i-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.022 
0.008 


0.005 
0.006 


0.001 
0.22s 


0.519 
0. 188 


0.128 
0.IS5 



c 



84 



TABLE 4-2 



DATE=-02AUf;85 



AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
BY AGE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAM- FRAMIHGHAM STUOr iO-YEAR FOLLONUP 

SEX: MALE 

EVENT: UNRECOGNIZED MYOCARDIAL INFARCTION 

RISK FACTOR: DIASTOLIC BLOOD PRESSURE. FIRST EXAMINER (MM HG) 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



J5-44 AT EXAM 45-54 AT EXAM 

RISK PERSON • OF ANNUAL PERSON ♦ OF ANNUAL 
FACTOR EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



55-64 AT EXAM 65-74 AT EXAM 

PERSON t OF ANNUAL PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



20-74 
75-84 
85-94 
95-104 
105-160 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



RISK 
FACTOR 

20-74 
75-84 
85-94 
95-104 
105-160 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



1012 

1604 

1 187 

499 

170 


4472 



75-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON « OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



422 


6 


7 


J3I 


5 


8 


204 


3 


7 


44 


2 


23 


16 


1 


31 








- 


10(7 


17 


3 



1478 
2766 
2062 
1008 
4 10 


1 
3 
6 
3 
2 




I 
I 
1 
2 


1347 
2845 
1964 
9S2 
411 


5 1 

11 2 

12 3 

5 3 

6 7 



7724 



15 


1 



8049 



39 2 


85- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


94 AT EXAM 

1 OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


35- 
1 OF 
EVENTS 


64 COMBIN 
CSUOE 


22 

12 
5 








6 
16 
IS 
11 

S 


1 
1 

2 
2 
4 



39 







59 


1 



1225 


14 


6 


1323 


9 


3 


893 


5 


3 


343 


5 


7 


129 


4 


16 








_ 


3913 


37 


5 



AOE- 
ADJUSTEO 



65-94 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



20 
14 




54 



9 
17 



4 
10 
19 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 




.054 
.046 
0.033 
0.016 
0.030 


0,032 
0.0 18 
0.0 12 
0.0 13 
.020 


0.096 
0.0 12 
0.004 
0.204 
0. 128 


0.604 
0.541 
0.401 
. 197 
0.357 


0.363 
0.215 
0. 140 
0. 155 
0.234 


35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.039 
0.0 13 


0.009 
0.011 


0.001 
0.093 


0.459 
0.216 


0. 1 12 
0. 129 


35-64 
65-94 


BIVARIATE 
8IVARIATE 


0.038 
0.022 


0.009 
0.011 


0.001 
0.037 


0.448 
0.272 


0.110 
0. 130 


35-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.034 
0.014 


O.OIO 

o.on 


O.OOI 
0. 175 


0.405 
0.175 


0. 1 15 
0. 129 



SEX: FEMALE 

EVENT" UNRECOGNIZED MYOCARDIAL INFARCTION 

RISK FACTOR: DIASTOLIC BLOOD PRESSURE, FIRST EXAMINER (MM HG3 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 
FACTOR 

20-74 
75-84 
85-94 
95-104 
105-160 

UNKNOHN 
TOTAL 



35-44 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 

EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

2164 
2030 

987 

324 

1 t I 


56 16 



45-54 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 

EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



55-64 AT E^AM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



65-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON i OF ANNUAL 

EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



2639 


1 





2969 


3 


1 


1831 


5 


1 


3541 


1 





3853 


5 


1 


2135 


8 


2 


236 1 


5 


1 


2840 


7 


1 


1439 


4 


1 


926 








1272 


8 


3 


600 


2 


2 


492 


1 


1 


579 


4 


3 


243 


3 


6 








- 








. 


■ 





- 


9959 


8 





11513 


27 


1 


6248 


22 


2 



RISK 
FACTOR 

20-74 
75-8* 
85-94 
95-104 
105-160 

UNKNOHN 
TOTAL 



AGE AT 
EXAM 

35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 

35-64 
65-94 

35-64 
65-94 



7 5-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON » OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



724 


4 




596 


3 




443 


3 




146 


1 




42 


2 


24 








- 


195 1 


13 


3 



UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 



BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON f OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



35-64 COMBINED 
( OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 



0.027 
0.050 
0.020 
O.Oii 



049 
019 



046 
024 



35-64 MULTIVARIATE 
65-94 MULTIVARIATE 



0.021 



5J 

43 
20 

7 



4 
6 
12 
8 
S 



123 



35 


LOGISTIC 


REGRESSIONS 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUe 


0.024 
0.012 
0.0 16 
0.021 


0.266 

0.001 
0.224 
0. 128 


0.010 
0.013 


0.001 
0. 126 


0.011 
0.013 


0.00 1 
0.062 


0.011 
0.012 


0.001 
0.080 



65-94 COMBINED 
» OF AGE- 

EVENTS' CRUDE ADJUSTElr 



STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 



0.334 
0.6 19 
0.242 
0.390 



0.596 
0.234 



0.562 
0.287 



0.598 
0.26 1 



10 
12 
8 
3 
5 

' 
38 



STD 
SE 



0.301 
0. ISO 
0. 199 
0.256 



0.126 
0.153 



0.134 
0. 154 



0. 140 
0. 149 



2 
2 
2 

Z 
10 



85 



TABLE 4-3A DATE=05AUG85 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
BY ACE AND LEVEL OF RISIC FACTOR AT EXAMi FRAMINGHAM STUDY 30-YEAR FOLLOWUP 



RISK 
FACTOR 

NO 

BORDER 

DEFINITE 

TREATED 

UNKNOMN 
TOTAl 



SEXi HALE 

EVENT ■ UNRECOGNIZED MYOCARDIAL INFARCTION 

RISK FACTOR: HYPERTENSION .JITH AMT:HY?E.°.TENSI'.'E TREATMENT 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



SS-'i'i AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



2651 

1301 

500 

20 


41)72 



2 



5 i 





5 I 



'.S-S'i AT EXAM 55-64 AT EXAM 65-74 AT EXAM 

PERSON • OF ANNUAL PERSON t OF ANNUAL PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



4122 

2205 

1 139 

258 


7724 




15 



3782 

2299 

1266 

702 


8049 



7 
17 
9 
6 


39 



1516 

1252 

552 

593 


3913 



4 
16 
9 
8 


37 



( 



RISK 

FACTOR 

NO 

BORDER 
DEFINITE 
TREATED 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



PERSON 
EXAMS 

37 5 
333 
123 
188 


1017 



75-84 AT EXAM 



I OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 




17 



4 
9 
4 
19 



PERSON 
EXAMS 

18 

1 1 

5 

7 


39 



85-94 AT EXAM 



I OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 



t OF 

EVENTS 



22 

16 
10 



35-64 COMBINED 




59 



CRUDE 



AGE- 
ADJUSTED 


2 

3 
5 



65-94 COMBINED 



I OF 

EVENTS 

7 
22 

10 
15 


54 



CRUDE 

2 

7 
7 
10 



AGE- 
ADJUSTED 

2 
7 
7 
9 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OP RISK FACTOR 


SE 

COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


5TD 
SE 


35-44 
4 5-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 




t.isz 

1.167 
0.626 
0.692 
0.553 


0.57 1 
0.345 
0. 196 
0.216 
0.314 


0.047 
0.001 
0.001 
0.001 
0.078 


0.736 
0.896 
0.510 
0.567 
0.453 


0.397 
0.265 
0. 160 
0. 177 
0.257 


85-94 














55-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.569 
0.444 


0. 148 
0. 162 


0.001 
0.006 


0.504 
0.398 


0. 131 
0. 145 


55-64 
65-94 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.536 
0.444 


0.150 
0. 161 


0.001 
0.006 


0.475 
0.398 


0. 132 
0. 145 


55-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.484 
0.454 


0.154 
0.169 


0.002 
0.0O7 


0.429 
0.407 


0. 137 
0. 152 



SEX: FEMALE 

EVENT: UNRECOGNIZED MYOCARDIAL INFARCTION 

RISK FACTOR: HYPERTENSION WITH ANTI.HYPERTENSIVE TSEATHEST 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 
FACTOR 

NO 

BORDER 
DEFINITE 
TREATED 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



35-44 AT EXAH 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

4250 

lOOI 

316 

49 


56 16 



45-54 AT EXAM 55-64 AT EXAM 

PERSON I OF ANNUAL PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RAfE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



5622 

2579 

1 166 

592 


9959 



4888 
3282 
1835 
1508 


I15I3 



3 
12 
I I 



27 



65-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1767 
1903 
1035 
1543 


6248 



3 

9 
3 

7 


22 



RISK 
FACTOR 

NO 

BORDER 
DEFINITE 
TREATED 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



AGE AT 
EXAM 

35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-54 
85-94 



7 5-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON < OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



35-64 
65-94 



35-64 
65-94 



35-44 
65-94 



402 
57 5 
37 1 
60S 


1951 



1 
3 
6 
3 


13 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



35-64 COMBINED 
« OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 



0.022 
1.879 
0.291 
0.6i0 



UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 



BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 



MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 



0.485 
0.317 



325 
298 



389 
il9 



31 
28 
21 
43 


5 
« 

12 



123 



35 


LOGISTIC 


REGRESSIONS 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


0.457 
0.421 
0.275 
0.439 


0.962 
001 
0.286 
0. 151 


0. 186 
0.203 


0.009 
0.119 


0. 192 
0.205 


0.09 1 
0. 147 


0. 198 
0.210 


0.050 
0. 129 



65-94 COMBINED 
t OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



4 
13 

9 
12 

- 
28 



STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 



0.017 
1.569 
0.240 
0.496 



0.425 
0.26 7 



0,28 5 
0.251 



0. 340 
0.269 



STD 
SE 



0.351 
0,352 
0.225 
0.346 



163 
171 



168 
173 



174 
177 



(. 



- 86 - 



TABLE ii-JB DATE = 06DEC85 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
BY AGE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAM: FRAMINGHAM STUDY iO-YEAR FOLLOWUP 

SEX: MALE 

EVENT: UNRECOGNIZED MYOCARDIAL INFARCTION 

RISK FACTOR: HYPERTENSION IGNORING TREATMENT 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 
FACTOR 

NO 

MILD 

DEFINITE 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



35-^4 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



2653 

1310 

509 


<i'i72 



■iS-S^ AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



'<\ 5<t 
228<i 
1286 


772"; 



2 
6 
7 


15 



55-64 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



3909 
2583 
1557 


8049 



7 
19 
1 3 


39 



65-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON f OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1631 

1499 

783 


3913 



5 
19 
13 


37 



RISK 
FACTOR 

NO 

MILD 

DEFINITE 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



AGE AT 
EXAM 

35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-34 
35-94 



75-34 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



412 

413 
137 


1017 



35-64 
65-94 



35-64 
65-94 



35-64 
65-94 



6 

10 
1 1 



35-94 AT EXAM 35-64 COMBINED 

PERSON I OF ANNUAL I OF AGE- 

EXAMS EVENTS RATE EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



5 
3 
4 


17 



COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 

1 .145 
1.110 
0.701 
0.741 
0.297 



UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 



BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 



MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 



398 
603 



825 
613 



0.726 
0.455 



21 
15 

3 


11 
ZS 
23 



39 



59 


LOGISTIC 


REGRESSIONS 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


0.573 
0.338 
0.201 
0.219 
0.325 


0.046 
0.001 
0.001 
0.001 
0.361 


0.164 
0.179 


0.001 
0.001 


0.165 
0.130 


0.001 
0.001 


0.172 
0.137 


a. 001 

O.OIS 



65-94 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 

0.791 
0.835 
0.540 
0.559 
0.213 



0.673 
0.452 



0.619 
0.46 



0.544, 
0.342 



10 
27 
17 



54 



STD 
SE 

0.396 
0.254 
0.155 
0.165 
0.239 



123 
135 



124 
135 



129 
140 



SEX: FEMALE 

EVEtfT: UNRECOGNIZED MYOCARDIAL INFARCTION 

RISK FACTOR: HYPERTENSION IGNORING TREATMENT 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 
FACTOR 


35- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


44 AT EXAM 

• OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


45 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


NO 

MILD 

DEFINITE 


4272 

1016 

323 




5804 
2763 
1392 


UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



5616 





9959 


RISK 
FACTOR 


75- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


54 AT EXAM 

t OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


35 

PERSON 
EXAMS 


NO 

MILD 

DEFINITE 


507 

327 
617 


2 2 

3 2 
8 6 


37 
45 
41 


UNKNOMN 
TOTAL 



1951 



13 3 


123 



45-54 AT EXAM 

• OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 



85-94 AT EXAM 

i OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 



55-44 AT EXAM 
PERSON < OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RAT£ 



5245 
386 
2408 


11513 



3 

8 

16 



27 



65-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON « OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



2035 
2549 
1664 


6248 



3 

11 
8 


22 



35-64 COMBINED 
t OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



65-94 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



7 
11 
17 




1 

2 ' 



1 

...2 


5 
17 
16 


1 
2 
3 


1 
3 
5 



S5 


t 


1 



38 


2 


2 



AGE AT 
EXAM 


COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


~ STD 
SE 


35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 




0.124 
1.212 
0.495 
0.782 




0.470 
0.278 
0.284 
0.413 


0.791 

0.001 
0.084 
0.062 


0.090 
0.942 
0.580 
0.592 


0.341 

0.216 
0.220 
0..317 


35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


1 .094 
0.563 


' 


0.216 
0.222 


O.OOI 
0.011 


0.310 
0,432 


0.160 
0.171 


35-64 
65-94 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.390 
0.524 




0.222 
0.224 


0.001 
0.019 


0.658 
0.402 


0.164 

0.171 


35-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.979 
0.46 7 




0.232 
0.226 


0.001 
0.039 


0.725 
0.358 


0.172 
0.174 



TABLE 4-4 DAT!:-05AUC35 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
BY AGE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAM: FRAMIMGHAM 3TUDT JO-YEAR FOLLOUUP 



RISK 
FACTOR 



5<1-20<1 
205-234 
235-264 
265-294 
295-1124 

UNKNOHN 
TOTAL 



SEX: MALE 

EVENT: UNRECOGNIZED MYOCARDIAL INFARCTION 

RISK FACTOR: SERUM CHOLESTEROL 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



35-44 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1253 
1247 
S72 
475' 
29 1 



334 
4472 





2 1 

2 1 



1 2 



5 1 



„^„ 45-54 AT EXAM 55-64 AT EXAM 65-74 AT EXAM 

PERSON ! OF ANNUAL PERSON I OF ANNUAL " 

EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1767 


1 





2306 


4 


1 


1745 


2 


1 


1001 


4 


2 


557 


4 


4 


348 








7724 


IS 


1 



2255 


10 


2 


2405 


14 


J 


1859 


9 


2 


9IS 


2 


1 


454 


4 


4 


128 








5049 


39 


2 



■ERSON 
IXAMS 


1 OF 
EVENTS 


ANNUAL 
RATE 


1234 
117 1 
373 
423 
191 


14 
1 1 
<, 
7 
1 


6 
5 
2 

a 

3 


16 
3913 



37 




5 



r 



RISK 

FACTOR 



75-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



35-64 COMBINED 
» OF ACE- 

EVEHTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



65-94 COMBINED 
• OF AGE- 

EVEHTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



84-204 
205-234 
235-264 
265-294 
295-1124 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



390 
332 

177 
96 
22 


10 17 




17 




23 



17 
I I 
5 

6 



39 



20 
IS 
6 
9 



59 



1 


20 


6 


6 


2 


17 


6 


6 


1 


8 


^ 


<i 


1 


7 


7 


6 


4 


2 


5 


7 














1 


54 


5 


6 



AGE AT 
EXAM 

35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-54 
85-94 

35-64 UNIVARIATE 
65-94 UNIVARIATE 



35-64 
65-94 



35-64 
65-94 



BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 



MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 



COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 

COEFFICIENT 


0.012 
0.011 
0.001 
-0.002 
0.002 




0.006 
.004 
. 004 
0.004 
0.006 


0.006 
-0.002 




0.003 
0.003 ; 


0.007 
-O.OOI 




0.003 
0.003 


0.006 
-0.001 




.003 
0.003 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



. 049 
0.002 
0,7 12 
0.569 
787 



026 
6 36 



16 
792 



04 1 
829 



STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 





-0 



541 
462 
055 
095 
065 




-0 


250 
065 



-0 


278 
036 



-0 


239 

030 



STD 
SE 

0.27 5 
0. 152 
0. 158 
0. 163 
0.242 



1 13 
135 



1 15 
139 



1 17 
135 



RISK 
FACTOR 



84-204 
205-234 
235-264 

265-294 
295-1124 

UNKNOHN 
TOTAL 



SEX: FEMALE 

EVENT: UNRECOGNIZED MYOCARDIAL INFARCTION 

RISK FACTOR: SERUM CHOLESTEROL 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



35-44 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



2350 

1417 

506 

372 

171 



500 
56 16 



45-54 AT EXAM 
PERSON i OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



55-44 AT EXAM 65-74 AT «AM 

PERSON I OF ANNUAL PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RA^E 



2094 
2555 
2259 
1473 
1 10 1 


2 

2 

2 
1 






1 




1625 

26 15 
2938 
2240 
1866 


4 

7 
3 
3 
5 


1 

I 

1 

2 
1 


789 
it^O 1 
1703 
1237 
1031 


1 
8 
3 
(« 
1 


1 
3 
2 
2 



474 
9959 


1 
8 


1 



229 
1 1513 



27 




1 


37 ■ 
6248 



22 



2 



RISK 
FACTOR 

84-204 
205-234 
235-264 
265-294 
295-t 124 

UNKNOHN 
TOTAL 



ACE AT 

EXAM 

35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 



75-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



35-64 
65-94 



35-64 
65-9« 



3«l 

486 
542 
350 
205 

7 
1951 



UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 



BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 




13 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 



-0.001 

0.001 

-0.005 

-0.004 



0.004 
-0.004 



-0. 000 
-0.003 



46 

28 

35 

9 

5 


10 



123 


IS 


LOGISTIC 


REGRESSIONS 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


0.008 
0.004 
0.005 
007 


0.905 
0.877 
0.360 
0.5«7 


0.003 
0.004 


0.187 
0.236 


0.004 
0.004 


0.97a 
0.443 



35-64 COMtlNED 

I OF AGE- 

EVEHTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 

' 

1 



1 t 
t 



45-94 COMBINED 
« OF ■ AGE- 

EVEHTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



5 

12 
12 

7 

2 



STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


-0 



-0 

-0 


044 
030 
202 
154 



-0 


184 
198 


-0 
-0 


005 
129 



STD 
SE 



0.388 
0.19 1 
0.221 
0.284 



0. 139 
0. 167 



■C 



176 
168 



- 88 - 



TABLE «-5 DaTE=06DEC35 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
BY AGE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAM: FRAMItlGHAM STUDY 30-YEAR FOLLOWUP 

SEX: MALE 

EVENT: UNRECOGNIZED MYOCARDIAL INFARCTION 

RISK FACTOR: HEMATOCRIT 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 

FACTOR 

25-<i2 
'J3-«'i 
45-46 
47-48 
49-70 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



35-44 AT EXAM 45-54 AT EXAM 

PERSON I OF ANNUAL PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



623 
546 
983 
775 
1175 

370 
4472 



942 

967 

1854 

1510 

2066 

385 
7724 




IS 



55-64 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1018 


4 




985 


6 




1953 


10 




1599 


3 




2338 


16 




156 








8049 


39 


2 



65-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON » OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



450 


4 


4 


493 


3 


3 


963 


12 


6 


861 


7 


4 


1127 


1 1 


5 


19 








3913 


37 


5 



RISK 
FACTOR 

25-42 
43-44 
45-46 
47-48 
49-70 

UMKNOMH 
TOTAL 



75-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON » OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



214 


6 


14 


119 


4 


17 


240 








197 


5 


13 


247 


2 


4 








. 


1017 


17 


3 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

16 
5 
7 
7 
4 


39 



35-64 COMBINED 
t OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



65-94 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



6 


1 


1 


10 


7 


6 


8 


2 


2 


7 


6 


6 


15 


2 


2 


12 


5 


5 


6 


1 


1 


12 


6 


6 


24 


2 


2 


13 


5 


5 




















59 


1 


1 


54 


5 


5 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 

35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 

35-64 UNIVARIATE 
65-94 UNIVARIATE 



35-64 
65-94 



35-64 
65-94 



BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 



MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 



COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


5E 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


0.075 
0.130 
0.064 
0.035 
-0.085 


0.123 
0.071 
0.043 
0.045 
0.056 


0.544 
0.067 
0.136 
.440 
0.127 


0.275 
0.466 
0.243 
0.129 
-0.355 


0.453 
0.254 
0. 163 
0.167 
0.232 


0.083 
-0.016 


0.036 
0.035 


0.019 
0.645 


0.306 
-0.062 


0.131 
0.136 


0.080 
-0.006 


0.035 
0.035 


0.023 
0.872 


0.295 
-0.022 


0.150 
0.136 


0.050 
-0.012 


0.035 
0.036 


0.153 
0.756 


0.186 
-0.047 


0.130 
0.138 



SEX: FEMALE 

EVENT: UNRECOGNIZED MYOCARDIAL INFARCTION 

RISK FACTOR: HEMATOCRIT 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 
FACTOR 

21-39 
40-41 
42-43 
44-45 
46-65 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



35-44 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

1697 

967 
1043 

856 

487 

566 
5616 



45-54 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



55-64 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



65-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1843 
1741 
1955 
2174 
1681 


1 

2 
3 
1 






1 
1 




1553 
2061 
2260 
2847 
2521 


2 
3 
2 
6 
13 


1 
1 

1 
3 


646 
1069 
1256 
16 09 
1626 


1 
3 
8 
3 
7 


1 
1 
3 
1 
2 


545 
9959 


1 
8 


1 




271 
11513 


1 
27 


2 
1 


42 
6248 



22 




2 



RISK 
FACTOR 

21-39 
40-41 
42-43 
44-45 
46-65 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



AGE AT 
EXAM 

35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-34 
85-94 



75-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



297 


1 


2 


373 


6 


8 


353 


2 


3 


486 


2 


2 


436 


2 


2 


6 








951 


13 


3 



35-64 
65-94 



55-64 
65-94 



55-64 
65-94 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



35-64 COMBINED 
t OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED- 



COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 



0.086 

0. 157 

0.057 

-0.063 



imiVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 



BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 



MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 



0. 172 
-0.020 



0. 134 
-0.010 



0. 093 
-0.001 



24 
31 
19 
26 
23 


14 



123 


2 
35 


LOGISTIC 


REGRESSIONS 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


0.109 
0.056 
0.062 
0.067 


0,429 
0.005 
0. 555 
0.348 


0. 049 
0.045 


,001 
0.651 


0.050 
. 044 


0.007 
0.318 


0.050 
0.043 


0,051 
0.974 



65-94 COMBINED 
« OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 



0.307 

0.545 

0.200 

-0.244 



613 
073 



483 
037 



551 
005 



5 

10 

11 

5 

■7 


38 



STD 
SE 



0.387 
0.193 
0,217 
0,26 



175 
161 



180 
159 



130 
156 



89 



TABLE 1-4 DATE=060eC!5 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
BY AGE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAM' FRAMINGHAM STUDY 30-YEAR FOLLOWUP 

SEX: MALE 

EVENT: UNRECOGNIZED MYOCARDIAL INFARCTION 

RISK FACTOR: BLOOD GLUCOSE (MG/DL) 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 
FACTOR 

29-69 

70-89 

90-109 

1 10-129 

130-52<i 

UNKNOUN 
TOTAL 



35-'4'i AT EXAM «5-5< AT EXAM 

PERSON I OF ANNUAL PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



992 

2501 

626 

105 

48 

200 
<i".72 



1'490 

41 72 

1348 

305 

19J 

216 
772<i 



« 
5 
2 
2 
2 


IS 



55-64 AT EXAM 65-74 AT EXAM 

PERSON I OF ANNUAL PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1087 

4056 

1866 

537 

408 

95 
8049 



4 

17 

1 1 

3 

4 


39 



421 


2 


2 


1761 


18 


5 


1046 


9 


4 


335 


1 


I 


334 


7 


10 


16 








3913 


37 


5 



RISK 
FACTOR 

29-69 

70-89 

90-1 09 

1 10-129 

130-524 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



75-81 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



62 
377 
328 
125 
125 


1017 



2 
7 
5 

1 
2 


17 



16 
9 



85-9<< AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

1 
1 1 
14 




39 



35-64 COMBINED 
S OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



65-94 COMBINED 
t OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



8 


1 


1 


4 


4 


5 


27 




1 


25 


6 


6 


13 


2 


1 


14 


5 


5 


5 


3 


2 


2 


2 


2 


6 


5 


4 


9 


10 


1 




















59 


1 


1 


54 


5 


5 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VAIUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


35-44 
45-54 
55-04 
65-74 
75-34 
85-94 




-0.011 
0.011 
0.005 
0.006 

-0.002 


0.034 
0.004 
0.004 
0.003 
0.008 


0.742 
0.004 
0.183 
0.037 
0.848 


-0.190 
0.262 
0. 148 
0.211 

-0.050 


0.579 
0.091 
0.111 
101 
0.260 


35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.009 
0.005 


O.OOJ 
O.OOJ 


0.001 
0.075 


0.209 
0.171 


0.064 
0.096 


35-64 
65-94 


DIV4RIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.007 
0.005 


0.003 
0.003 


019 
0.109 


0.168 
0.161 


0.072 
0.100 


35-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.006 
O.0O4 


0.003 
0.003 


0.029 
0.217 


0.159 
0.126 


0.073 
0.102 



SEX: FEMALE 

EVENT: UNRECOGNIZED MYOCARDIAL INFARCTION 

RISK FACTOR: BLOOD GLUCOSE <MG/DL) 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 

FACTOR 

29-69 

70-89 

90-109 

1 10-129 

130-524 

UNKNOMN 
TOTAL 



35-44 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

1066 

3412 

672 

96 

39 

3JI 
5616 



45-54 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1797 

5744 

1625 

301 

159 



333 
9959 




4 

1 
i 2 
1 3 

t 2 

8 



55-64 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1369 

6098 

2712 

730 

438 

166 
11513 



3 
9 
9 
4 
1 

1 
27 



65-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



521 

3102 

1732 

501 

360 

32 
6 248 



1 
11 
8 

2 


22 



RISK 
FACTOR 

29-69 

70-89 

90-109 

110-129 

130-524 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



AGE AT 
EXAM 

35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-34 
85-94 

35-64 
65-94 

35-64 
65-94 

35-64 
65-94 



75-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE' 



35-64 COMBINED 
• OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



65-94 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED- 



tos 


1 


5 


8ZS 


5 


3 


640 


2 


2 


219 


2 


5 


163 


3 


9 


1 








951 


13 


3 



COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 



0.013 

0.010 

-0.001 

0.008 



IIIUVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 



BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 



tlUlTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 



0.012 
0.005 



0.010 
0.004 



0.008 
0.003 



3 
44 
51 
13 

12 


J 

13 

10 

5 

2 



23 


2 
35 


LOGISTIC 


REGRESSIONS 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


0.008 
0.004 
0.008 
0.004 


0.094 
0.008 
0.937 
0.071 


0.003 
0.004 


0.001 
0. 143 


003 
0.004 


0.005 
0.269 


0. 003 
0.004 


0.024 
0.491 



STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 



0.256 

0.247 

-0.017 

0.259 



269 
162 



210 
128 



167 
0S4 



2 
17 
11 

3 

5 


• 



38 






STD 
SE 




0.153 
0.092 
0.221 
0.143 




0.067 
0.110 




0.074 
0.116 




0.074 
0.122 



L 



90 



TABLE 4-7 DATE=06DEC85 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
BY AGE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAM. FRAMINGHAM STUDY 50-YEAR FOLLOWUH 

SEX: MALE 

EVENT; UNRECOGNIZED MYOCARDIAL INFARCTION 

RISK FACTOR: DIABETES MELLITU5 „„^.,- 

PERSONS AT risk: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 
FACTOR 


35- 

PERSCN 
EXAMS 


•it AT EXAM 

1 OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


45- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


54 AT EXAM 

1 OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


55- 
PERSOH 
EXAMS 


64 


AT EXAM 
« OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


65-7« 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


AT EXAM 
t OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


NO 
YES 




5 



1 



7486 
238 


13 1 
2 4 


7549 
500 




52 
7 


2 
7 


5504 
409 


50 

7 


4 
9 


UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



ii'.72 



5 


1 



772<t 



15 1 



80^*9 





59 


2 



3915 



37 


5 


RISK 
FACTOR 


75- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


8". AT EXAM 

• OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


85- 

PERSON 
EXAMS 


9* AT EXAM 

• OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


55- 
« OF 

EVENTS 


64 


COMBINED 65- 
AGE- 1 OF 
CRUDE ADJUSTED EVENTS 


94 COMBINED 

AGE- 
CRUDE ADJUSTED 


NO 
YES 


900 
117 


15 
2 


8 

9 


5"* 

5 




SO 
9 




1 
6 


1 
4 


45 
9 


5 
8 


5 

8 


UNKNOMN 
TOTAL 



1017 



17 


8 



59 





59 




1 


1 



54 


5 


5 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


55-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 




lT585 
1 .205 
0.701 
0.026 


07762 
0.420 
0.423 
0.759 


07058 
. 004 
.097 
0.975 


07274 
0.291 

0.215 
0.0Q8 


07152 
0,101 
0. 129 
0.242 


85-94 














35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


I .505 
0.521 


0.564 
0.368 


0.001 
0.157 


0.290 
0. 161 


0.070 
0.114 


55-64 
65-94 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


1.190 
0.497 


0.369 
0.368 


0.001 
0.177 


0.250 
0.154 


0.071 
0.114 


35-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


1 .058 
0.460 


0.580 
0.i74 


O.OOS 
0.219 


0.204 
0.142 


0.075 
0.116 



SEX: FEMALE 

EVENT: UNRECOGNIZED MYOCARDIAL INFARCTION 

RISK FACTOR: DIABETES MELLITUS 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 
FACTOR 



NO 
YES 



55-44 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

5575 
43 



PERSON 
EXAMS 



9760 
199 



45-54 AT EXAM 



I OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 



PERSON 
EXAMS 



1 0985 
528 



55-64 AT EXAM 



I OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 



25 
2 



65-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



5780 
4<;3 



19 
5 



UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 




5616 




9959 




11515 




27 




6248 




22 



RISK 
FACTOR 



NO 
YES 



UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



7 5-84 AT EXAM 85-94 AT EXAM 

PERSON i OF ANNUAL PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1738 
215 




1951 



10 
3 




15 



106 
17 



t2J 



55-64 COMBINED 
* OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



65-9.4 COMBINED . 
» OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



52 
6 







AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 

COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


55-44 

45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 




0.51 1 
0.671 
0.904 


0.756 
0.625 
0.662 


0.488 
0.282 
0.172 


0.107 
0. 177 
0.282 


0. 154 
0. 164 
0.207 


35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.750 
0.721 


0.729 
0.447 


0.517 
0. 106 


0. 121 
0.200 


0. 121 
0. 124 


55-44 
65-94 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.295 
0.614 


0.731 
0.449 


0.687 
0.171 


0.049 
0.170 


0. 122 
0. 124 


35-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.004 
0.415 


0.757 
0.465 


0.996 
0.375 


0.001 
0.115 


0. 122 
0. 128 



91 - 



RISK 
FACTOR 



NO 
YES 



TABLE 4-8 DATE=04DEC85 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
BY AGE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAM: FRAMINGHAM STUDY lO-TEAR FQLLOWUP 

SEX; MALE 

EVENT; UNRECOGNIZED MYOCARDIAL INFARCTION 

RISK FACTOR: GLUCOSE IN URINE, DEFINITE OR TRACE 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



IS-',', AT EXAM 45-54 AT EXAM 

PERSON I OF ANNUAL PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



4380 
60 



7535 
168 



55-64 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



7815 
210 



36 
3 



1)5-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



3767 
140 



32 
5 



4 
IS 



c 



UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



32 
4472 



21 
7724 




15 



24 
8049 




39 



6 
3913 




37 



RISK 

FACTOR 



NO 
YES 



75-84 AT EXAM 85-94 AT EXAM 

PERSON I OF ANNUAL PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



986 
23 



17 




38 

1 



35-64 COMBINED 
• OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



55 



65-94 COMBINED 
t OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



49 
5 



5 

IS 



5 
14 



UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



3 

1017 




17 




39 




59 




54 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE- 


35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 




1 .168 
1.142 
1 .464 


1 .038 
0.605 
0.489 


0.260 
0.059 
0.003 


0.171 
0. 182 
0.272 


0.152 
0.097 
0.091 


75-84 
85-94 




' 










35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


1.193 
1 .082 


0.520 
0.476 


0.022 
0.023 


0-174 
0.196 


0.076 
0.086 


35-64 
65-94 


BIVARIATE 
flIVARIATE 


1 .046 
1 .118 


0.521 
0.477 


0,045 
0.019 


0.152 
0.203 


0.076 
0.087 


35-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.965 

0.958 * 


0.529 
0.488 


0.068 
0.050 


0.141 
0.174 


0.077 
0.089 



SEX: FEMALE 

EVENT: UNRECOGNIZED MYOCARDIAL INFARCTION 

RISK FACTOR: GLUCOSE IN URINE, DEFINITE OR TRACE 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 
FACTOR 


35- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


44 AT EXAM 

« OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


. 45- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


54 AT EXAM 

B OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


55- 

PERSON 
EXAMS 


64 


AT EXAM 
t OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


65-7< 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


AT EXAM 
1 OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


NO 
YES 


5537 
41 






9841 
94 


7 
1 



5 


11346 
144 




26 
1 


1 

3 


6131 
107 


22 



2 



UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 


38 

5616 






24 
9959 



8 







23 

11513 





27 



1 


10 
6248 



22 




2 


RISK 
FACTOR 


75- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


84 AT EXAM 

• OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


85- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


94 AT EXAM 

1 OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


35- 
• OF 
EVENTS 


64 


COMBINED 

AGE- 
CRUDE ADJUSTED 


65- 
1 OF 
EVENTS 


94 COMBINED 

AGE- 
CRUDE ADJUSTED 


NO 
YES 


19t9 
2J 


IS 



3 



120 
3 






2 




1 


. .1 
3 


38 



2 



2 



UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 


9 
1951 



13 



3 



123 








ss 






1 



1 


.- 
38 



2 



2' 



AGE AT 
EXAM 

3S-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 

35-64 
65-94 

35-64 
65-94 

35-64 
65-94 



COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 



1 .168 
1.113 



UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 



BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 



MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 
P-VALUE 



SE 

COEFFICIENT 



1 .038 
1 .023 



0.731 
0.733 
0.746 



0.260 
0.276 



0.016 
0.027 
0.096 



STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 



0.113 
0.124 



0. 178 
0.164 
0. 126 



STD 
SE 



0.100 
0.114 



0. 074 
0.074 
0.075 



c. 



92 - 



TABLE 1-9 DATE=01MAR86 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
BY AGE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAMi FRAMINGHAH STUDY JO-YEAR FOLLOWUP 

SEX: MALE ■ / 

EVENT; UNRECOGNIZED MYOCARDIAL INFARCTION 

RISK FACTOR' GLUCOSE INTOLERANCE 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 
FACTOR 


15- 

PERSON 
EXAMS 


<,', AT EXAM 

t OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


45- 

PERSON 
EXAMS 


5<i AT EXAM 

« OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


55- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


64 


AT EXAM 
1 OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


65-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON 1 OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 


NO 
YES 


4335 
1 37 


5 



1 



7221 
503 


1 1 1 
"4 d 


7145 
904 




30 
9 


2 
5 


322S 
685 


28 4 
9 7 


UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 







5 


1 



772'i 



15 1 



S049 





39 


2 



3913 



37 5 


RISK 
FACTOR 


75- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


«<* AT EXAM 

« OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


55- 
PER30N 
EXAMS 


94 AT EXAM 

t OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


35- 
1 OF 
EVENTS 


64 


COMBINED 

AGE- 
CRUDE ADJUSTED 


65- 
t OF 
EVENTS 


94 COMBINED 

AGE- 
CRUDE ADJU 


NO 
YES 


ao2 

215 


3 


9 

7 


27 
12 




46 
13 




1 

4 


1 
3 


42 
12 


5 
7 


UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



1017 



17 


S 



39 





59 




1 


1 




54 


5 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAN 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


JS-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 




1*659 

0.869 

0.420 

-0.228 


0.586 
0.382 
0.386 
0.641 


oToos 

0.023 
0.276 
0.723 


0.409 
0.274 

0.160 
-0.093 


0.145 
0.121 
0.147 
0.262 


85-94 














35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


I .237 
0.24 J 


0.315 
0.329 


0.001 
0.461 


0.328 
0.094 


0.084 
0.128 


35-64 
65-94 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.975 
0.196 


0.319 
0.330 


0.002 
0.553 


0.259 
0.076 


0.085 
0.128 


35-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.906 
0.121 


0.323 
0.333 


Q.OOS 
0.717 


0.241 
0.047 


0.086 
0.129 



SEX: FEMALE 

EVENT: UNRECOGNIZED MYOCARDIAL INFARCTION 

RISK FACTOR: GLUCOSE INTOLERANCE 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 
FACTOR 



NO 
YES 



UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



35-44 AT EXAM 
PERSON < OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

5522 
94 




5616 



45-54 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



55-64 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



65-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON f OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



958S 
371 


6 

2 



3 


10503 
1010 


23 

4 


1 
2 


5398 
850 


18 
4 


2 

2 



9959 



8 


0- 



11513 



27 


1 



6248 



22 


2 



RISK 
FACTOR ■ 



NO 

YES 



UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



AGE AT 
EXAM 

35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
55-94 

35-64 
65-94 

35-64 
65-94 

35-44 
65-94 



75-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



I 581 
370 




1951 




13 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON < OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



35-64 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 



UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 



BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 



MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 



158 
594 
346 
991 



282 

714 



852 

618 



0.705 
0.484 



100 
23 


29 
i 



123 



}5 


LOGISTIC 


REGRESSIONS 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


0.818 
0.543 
0.554 
0.573 


0.008 
0.274 
0.532 
0.084 


0.449 
0.370 


0.004 
0.053 


0.453 
0.372 


0.060 
0.096 


0.457 
0.381 


0.123 
0.204 



65-94 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVEHTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 



0.409 
0.168 
0.119 
0.389 



.291 
255 



193 
220 



160 
172 



28 
10 




38 



STD 
SE 



0.155 
0.1 54 
0. 190 
0.225 



0.102 
0.132 



0.103 
0.133 



0.104 
0. 136 



93 - 



RISK 
FACTOR 

54-1 04 
105-1 14 
1 1 5-124 
125-134 
135-272 

UllKNOWII 
TOTAL 



TABLE 4-10 DATE=06DEC85 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
BY AGE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAM; FRAMINGHAM STUDY 30-YEAR FOLLOWUP 

SEX: MALE 

EVENT; UNRECOGNIZED MYOCARDIAL INFARCTION 

RISK FACTOR: METROPOLITAN RELATIVE WEIGHT (PERCENT) 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



35-44 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



723 
965 
1 122 
915 
747 




4472 



2 1 



2 1 





5 1 



45-54 AT EXAM 55-64 AT EXAM 65-74 AT EXAM 

PERSON I OF ANNUAL PERSON I OF ANNUAL PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1131 
1540 
2037 
1645 
1370 

I 
7724 



1 
2 
3 
3 
6 


IS 



1155 
1655 
2175 
1674 
1389 

1 
8049 



9 

3 

1 1 

10 

6 


39 



686 


5 


4 


851 


9 


5 


1069 


S 


4 


766 


7 


5 


541 


S 


7 








. 


3913 


37 


5 



( 



RISK 
FACTOR 

54-1 04 
105-1 14 
1 15-124 
125-134 
135-272 

UNKNOI'IN 
TOTAL 



75-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON « OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



224 


5 


11 


252 


4 


3 


296 


3 


5 


155 


2 


6 


90 


3 


17 








_ 


017 


17 


8 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

18 

9 
12 






39 



35-64 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



65-94 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



11 


2 


. 2 


10 


5 


5 


7 


1 


1 


13 


6 


6 


14 


1 


1 


11 


4 


4 


IS 


Z 


2 


9 


5 


5 


12 


Z 


2 


1 1 


9 


9 





■9' 








_ 




59 


1 


1 


54 


5 


5 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 




-0.021 
0.024 

-0.003 
0.010 
0.019 


0.029 
0.014 
0.010 
0.010 
0.015 


0.469 
0.089 
0.763 
0.332 
0.21Z 


-0.345 
0.390 

-0.049 
0. 156 
0.281 


0.477 
0.229 
0.162 
0. 161 
0.225 


35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.003 
0.012 


0.008 
0.009 


0.670 
p. 175 


0.055 
0.179 


0.129 
0.132 


35-64 
65-94 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.003 
0.014 


0.008 
0.009 


0.679 
3.101 


0.054 
0.Z17 


0.130 
0.1 33 


35-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


-0.002 
0.009 


0.008 
0.009 


0.783 
6.281 


-0.037 
0.147 


0.132 
0.136 



SEX' FEMALE 

EVENT' UNRECOGNIZED MYOCARDIAL INFARCTION 

RISK FACTOR: METROPOLITAN RELATIVE WEIGHT (PERCENT) 

PERSONS AT RISK' PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 

FACTOR 

54-104 
105-1 14 
1 1 5-124 
125-134 
135-272 

UNKNOI'IN 
TOTAL 



35-44 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

1694 
1430 
1058 

566 

860 

8 
5616 



45-54 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL - 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



2095 
2331 
2107 
1372 
2054 




9959 



55-64 AT EXAM 
PERSON » OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



2 





2045 


8 


2 


3 


1 


2409 


1 





1 





2479 


5 


1 


1 





1743 


3 


1 


1 





2837 


10 


2 





_ 








_ 


8 





11513 


27 


1 



65-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON » OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1216 

1145 

1395 

982 

1510 


6248 ' 



3 

6 
4 
2 
7 


22 



RISK 
FACTOR 

54-104 
105-114 
115-124 
125-134 
135-272 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



AGE AT 
EXAM 

35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-34 
35-94 

35-64 
65-94 

35-64 
65-94 

35-64 
65-94 



7 5-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF - ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



517 
375 
399 
266 
394 


1951 



UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 



BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 



3 
2 
2 
2 

4 


13 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

41 
28 
21 
16 
17 


1ZS 



35-64 COMBINED 
» OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUSE ADJUSTED 



COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 



-0.017 
0.0O9 
0.015 
0.008 



003 
009 



004 
012 



MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 



-0.001 
0.009 





10 

4 

« 

4 

11 





35 


LOGISTIC 


REGRESSIONS 


E 
ICIENT 


P-VALUE 


020 
008 
008 
012 


0.392 
0.252 
0.058 
0.523 


007 
007 


0.256 
0.156 


007 
007 


0.564 
0.075 


DOS 
007 


0.854 
0.186 



65-94 COMBINED 
• OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



7 
8 

7 
5 

11- 


33 



STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 



-0.372 
0. 194 
0.327 
0.167 



170 
206 



091 
258 



-0.030 
0.193 



STD 

se 



0.435 
0.169 
0.173 
0.Z6I 



0.150 
0.145 



0.157 
0.145 



0. 164 
0. 146 



'v.. 



- 94 - 



TABLE <i-l 1 D4TE=06DECS5 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
BY AGE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAMi FRAMINGHAM STUDY 30-YEAR FOLLOHUP 

SEX: MALE 

EVENT: UNRECOGNIZED MYOCARDIAL INFARCTION 

RISK FACTOR: VITAL CAPACITY - HEIGHT INDEX (ML/INCH) 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 
FACTOR 

3-:i<i 

50-5"* 
55-59 
60-85 

UNKNOtIN 
TOTAL 



35-44 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



2S9 

41 1 

747 

1022 

2010 

13 
4472 



45-54 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1062 
1125 
1653 
1739 
2135 


6 
1 
3 

3 
2 


J 

1 
1 



5 
7724 



15 




1 



55-64 AT EXAM 65-74 AT EXAM 

PERSON t OF ANNUAL PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



2045 
1480 
1835 
1416 
1255 

IS 
8049 



13 
5 

13 
6 
2 


39 



752 


17 


5 


749 


3 


5 


712 


6 


4 


442 


3 


3 


246 


3 


6 


12 








913 


37 


5 



RISK 
FACTOR 

8-44 
45-49 
50-54 
55-59 
60-35 

UNKNOMN 
TOTAL 



75-34 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



649 


14 


11 


172 








97 


3 


15 


65 








26 





1! 


3 








1 017 


17 


8 



35-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

24 
6 

7 
2 




35-64 COMBINED 
« OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



19 

6 

16 

9 
9 


59 



65-94 COMBINED 
f OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



9 
3 
3 


54 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 

35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 

35-64 
65-94 

35-64 
65-94 

35-64 
65-94 



COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 



0.058 
-0.047 



UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 



DIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 



nULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 



-0.025 
-0.016 



-0.038 
-0.020 



020 
014 



-0.002 
-0.007 



SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


0.053 
0.027 
0.017 
0.017 
0.026 


0.273 
0.080 
0. 126 
0.349 
0.538 


0.515 
-0.425 
-0.238 
-0. 153 
-0.133 


0.470 
0.243 
0.155 
0.163 
0.245 


0.013 
0.014 


0.003 
0.163 


-0.370 
-0.139 


0.124 
0.135 


0.014 
0.015 


0.142 


-0.196 
-0.134 


0.133 
0.139 


0.014 
0.015 


0.366 
0.635 


-0.024 
-0.068 


0.140 
0.143 



SEX: FEMALE 

EVENT: UNRECOGNIZED MYOCARDIAL INFARCTION 

RISK FACTOR: VITAL CAPACITY - HEIGHT INDEX (ML/INCH) 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 
FACTOR 

4-29 
30-34 
35-39 
40-44 
45-92 

UNKNOHtt 
TOTAL 



35-44 AT EXAM 
PERSON » OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

122 

239 

769 
1427 
2988 

21 
5616 



45-54 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



55-64 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



65-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



534 
1217 
2077 
2804 
3310 


1 
2 
1 
1 
3 


1 
1 





1461 
2413 
3048 
2706 
1859 


6 
9 
3 

7 

2 


2 
2 


1 
1 


1747 

1715 

1529 

8 54 

397 


12 
4 
3 
1 

2 


3 
1 
1 
1 
J 


17 
9959 



8 






21 
11S1J 



27 




1 


6 
6248 



22 



2 



RISK 
FACTOR 

4-29 
30-34 
35-39 
40-44 
45-92 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



AGE AT 
EXAM 

35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-34 
85-94 

35-64 
65-94 

35-64 
65-94 

35-64 
65-94 



7 5-8<( AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



930 


7 


4 


569 


4 


4 


314 


2 


3 


1 1 1 








2S 








2 








1951 


13 


3 



SS-** AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



35-64 COMBINED 
• OF AGE- • 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 



-0.027 
-0.059 
-0.057 
-0.042 



UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 



DIVARIATE 
BtVARIATE 



MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 



-0.076 
-0.067 



-0.045 
-0.055 



-0.033 
-0.051 



80 
29 
13 

I 



7 

11 

4 

( 

5 



I2S 



35 


LOGISTIC 


REGRESSIONS 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


0.047 
0.024 
0.028 
0.038 


0.569 
0.014 
0.039 
0.274 


0.020 
0.021 


0.001 

o.oai 


0.022 
0.022 


0.041 
0.011 


0.023 
0.022 


0.159 
0.0Z4 



65-94 COMBINED 
• OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 



-0.198 
-0.446 
-0.422 
-0.293 



606 
501 



357 
415 



262 
,381 



21 
9 
5 




38 



STD 
SE 



0.347 
.132 
0.205 
0.267 



1 53 
154 



175 
163 



186 
169 



- 95 - 



RISK 
FACTOR 

JO-67 
68-75 
76-aj 
3i*-91 
92-220 

UNOIOMN 
TOTAL 



TABLE <i-1Z DATE = 06DECS5 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
BY AGE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAM^ FRAMIHGHAM STUDY 30-YEAR FOLLOHUP 

SEX: MALE 

EVENT! UNRECOGNIZED MYOCARDIAL INFARCTION 

RISK FACTOR: HEART RATE CPER MINUTE) 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



SS-IA AT EXAM 
PERSON f OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1284 

1492 

722 

579 . 

395 




4472 



3 t 





1 I 

n _ 



45-54 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1949 
2490 
1394 
1097 
794 


1 
5 
2 
4 
3 



1 
1 

2 
2 



7724 



15 


1 



55-64 AT EXAM 65-74 AT EXAM 

PERSON I OF ANNUAL PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



2309 
2490 
1374 
1064 
812 


8049 



4 
17 
6 
6 
6 


59 



1 183 


I 1 


5 


1 159 


9 


4 


624 


4 


3 


487 


7 


7 


460 


6 


7 








_ 


3913 


37 


5 



r 



75-84 AT EXAM 85-94 AT EXAM 

RISK PERSON » OF ANNUAL PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
FACTOR EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



35-64 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



65-94 COMBINED 
• OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



30-67 
68-75 
76-83 
84-91 
92-220 


301 
296 
192 
123 
105 


7 
5 

1 
3 
1 


12 
8 

3 
2 

5 


It 
12 

10 

5 
1 




6 

zs 
i 

10 

to 


1 
2 
1 
2 
2 


1 

2 
1 
2 
2 


18 
14 

5 
10 

7 


6 

5 
3 
8 
6 


6 

5 
3 
8 
6 


UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 1017 



17 


8 



39 





59 


1 


1 



54 


5 


5 












LOGISTIC 


REGRESSIONS 












AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 

COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 




STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 




STO 

SE 




35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 




0.026 
0.041 
0.024 
0.017 
-0.021 






0.032 
0.013 
0.011 
0.011 
0.020 


0.415 
0.022 
0.030 
0. 1 36 
0.292 




0.324 
0.512 
0.312 
0.226 
-0.283 




0.398 
0.223 
0.143 
0.151 
0.263 




35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.029 
0.006 






0.009 
0.010 


0.002 
0.515 




0.364 
0.086 




0.1 IS 
0.133 




35-64 
65-94 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.023 
0.006 






0.009 
010 


0.002 
0.516 




0.357 
0.086 




0.114 
0.133 




35-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.012 
0.005 






0.010 
0.010 


0.218 
0.650 




0.151 
0.061 




0.122 
0. 134 





SEX: FEMALE 

EVENT: UNRECOGNIZED MYOCARDIAL INFARCTION 

RISK FACTOR: HEART RATE (PER MINUTE) 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



35-44 AT EXAM 
RISK PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
FACTOR EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



45-54 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



5S-64 AT EXAM 65-74 AT EXAM 

PERSON t OF ANNUAL PERSON » OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



30-67 
63-75 
76-83 
84-91 
92-220 

UIIKNOIIN 

TOTAL 



1092 

1303 

1051 

939 

731 


5«l« 



U97 
S2<i<i 
1911 
1604 
1303 


3 
2 
2 

1 



1 



I 





2305 
3468 
2351 
1780 
1609 


2 
6 
7 
4 
8 



I 
1 
I 
2 


1103 
1663 
1353 
1089 
1030 


8 
7 
2 
3 
2 


4 
2 

I 
I 
1 



9959 




a 


a 



1 1513 



27 


1 


0' 
6248 



22 


-> 



RISK 
FACTOR 

30-67 
68-75 
76-8J 
84-91 
92-220 

UNKHOHN 
TOTAL 



AGE AT 
EXAM 

35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
35-94 

35-64 
65-94 

35-64 
65-94 

35-64 
65-94 



7 5-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



360 


3 


4 


462 


1 


1 


428 


5 


6 


330 


1 


2 


371 


5 


4 








„ 


1951 


13 


5 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



35-64 COMBINED 
» OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE _ ADJUSTED 



COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 



-0.032 
0.031 

-0 .044 
0.010 



UNIVARIATE 
UillVARIATE 



BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 



NUITIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 



0.022 
-0.017 



0.021 
-0.017 



0.011 
-0.018 



2« 
32 
24 
23 
IS 


s 

8 

9 
5 
8 



123 



35 


LOGISTIC 


REGRESSIONS 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


0.032 
0.012 
0.019 
0.019 


0.323 
0.007 
0.022 
0.590 


0.011 
0.013 


0.055 
0.203 


0.011 
0.013 


0.065 
0. 190 


0.012 
0.013 


0.362 
0.156 



65-94 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- _ 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



12 
8 
7. 
6 
5 


38 



STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


-0 


-0 



393 
401 
575 
139 



-0 


277 
222 



-0 


265 
226 



-0 


143 
245 



STD 
SE 



0.398 
0.150 
0.250 
0.259 



0.144 
0.175 



0.144 
0.173 



0.157 
0.173 



e 



96 - 



TARLE A-li DATE=05AUG85 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
BY AGE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAM: FRAMINGHAM STUDY JO-YEAR FOLLOWUP 

SEXi MALE 

EVENT" UNRECOGNIZED MYOCARDIAL INFARCTION 

RISK FACTOR" CIGARETTES SMOKED (NUMBER PER DAY) 

PERSONS AT RISK" PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 
FACTOR 

NONE 

1-10 
1 1-20 
Zl-'iO 
"i1-90 

UNKNOHN 
TOTAL 



35-'<'< AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1383 





a 


433 








1«85' 


2 


1 


987 


2 


1 


15S 


1 


3 


26 








<i*72 


5 


t 



45-54 AT EXAM 
PERSON » OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



3068 

716 

2051 

1602 

252 


3 
1 

5 
5 
1 



1 
1 

2 
2 


35 
7724 



15 



I 



55-64 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



4295 


12 


1 


769 


3 


2 


1682 


15 


4 


I 1 19 


8 


4 


162 


■ 1 


3 


22 








8049 


39 


2 



'65-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON I. OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



26 11 


25 


5 


374 


3 


4 


526 


4 


4 


369 


4 


5 


27 


1 


19 


6 








3913 


37 


5 



RISK 
FACTOR 

NONE 

1-10 
11-20 
21-40 
4 1-90 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



7 5-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



97 


14 


9 


92 


1 


5 


77 


1 


6 


46 


1 


1 1 


5 














„ 


17 


17 


8 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON » OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

27 
6 
5 




39 



35-64 COMBINED 
t OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



65-94 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



15 


1 





39 


6 




4 


1 


1 


4 


4 




22 


2 


2 


5 


4 




15 


2 


3 


5 


6 




3 


3 


3 


1 


16 


15 




















59 


I 


t 


54 


5 


6 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STO 
SE 


35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 




0.068 
0.0 38 
0.024 
O.flOS 
-0.011 


0.028 
0.014 
0.010 
0.013 
0.031 


0.015 
0.008 
0.015 
0.518 
0.716 


0.96 1 
0.566 
0.331 
0.099 
-0. 102 


0.29« 
0.213 
0. 133 
0. 152 
0.282 


85-94 














35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.026 
0.002 


0.008 
0.012 


O.OOI 
0.847 


0.377 
0.026 


0.1S4 


35-64 
65-94 


BIVARIATE 
8IVARIATE 


0.032 
0.0C6 


0.007 
0.012 


•- 0.001 
0.628 


0.471 
. 045 


0.109 
0.134 


35-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.035 
0.011 


0.007 
0.312 


0.001 
0.374 


O.SIO 
0.120 


0.10S 
0.135 



SEX" FEMALE 

EVENT" UNRECOGNIZED MYOCARDIAL INFARCTION 

RISK FACTOR" CIGARETTES SMOKED (NUMBER PER DAY) 

PERSONS AT RISK" PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 
FACTOR 

NONE 

1-10 
1 1-20 
21-40 
41-90 

UNKNQMN 
TOTAL 



35-44 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 

EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

2582 

1314 

137 1 

298 

22 

29 
56 16 



45-54 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 

EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



55-64 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 

EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



65-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 

EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



5528 


3 





7595 


15 


1 


4863 


20 


2 


17 26 


2 


1 


1566 


4 


1 


6 26 


1 


1 


2009 


3 


1 


1696 


5 


1 


568 


1 


1 


622 








602 


2 


2 


172 








37 








16 


1 


31 










37 








38 








19 








9959 


8 





11513 


27 


1 


6248 


22 


2 



RISK 
FACTOR 

NONE 

1-10 
1 1-20 
21-40 
41-90 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



AGE AT 
EXAM 

35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 

55-64 
65-94 

55-64 
65-94 

35-64 
65-94 



75-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON « OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1710 


13 


4 


137 








84 








16 














- 


4 








1951 


13 


3 



UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 



BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



35-64 COMBINED 
« OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 



0.019 

0.035 

-0.063 



MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 



3.026 
-0.092 



0.034 
-0.081 



0.034 
-0.078 



117 
4 
2 
3 



18 
6 
8 
2 
.1 



123 



35 


LOGISTIC 


REGRESSIONS 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


0.030 
3.0 15 
0.052 


0.520 
0.024 
0.224 


0.014 
0.055 


0.O7O 
0.095 


0.014 
0.055 


0.012 
0. 137 


0.014 

O.054 


0,012 
0. 154 




1 
t 
I 
13 






STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 






-0 


198 
330 
480 



-0 


255 
649 



-0 


339 
574 


3 
-0 


342 
549 



65-94 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



36 







STD 

se 



0.308 
0. 146 
0.394 



3.141 
0.389 



0. 136 
0.386 



0. 137 
0.385 



97 - 



TAHL£ 4-13 DATE=05AUG85 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCICeNCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
BY AGE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAM' FRAMINGHAM STUDY 30-YEAR FOLLOWUP 

SEXi MALE 

EVENTi UNRECOGNIZED MYOCARDIAL INFARCTION 

RISK FACTOR! CIGARETTES SMOKED (NUMBER PER DAY) 

PERSONS AT RISKi PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 
FACTOR 

NONE 

1-10 
1 I-2G 

21-4, £1 
41-90 

UNKNOMN 
TOTAL 



55-<i* AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



"133 

98 7- 
lis 

26 
4472 



<.5 
PERSON 
EXAMS 

3068 

7 16 

2051 

1602 

252 

35 
772<i 



■54 AT EXAM 

« OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 



a 

15 



55-64 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



4295 

769 

1632 

I 1 19 

162 

22 
8049 



12 
3 

15 
8 




39 



'65-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON I. OF ANNUAL 

EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



26 1 1 

374 

526 

369 

27 

6 
3913 



25 

3 




37 



5 

4 

4 

5 

19 


5 



RISK 
FACTOR 

NONE 

l-IO 
1 1-20 
21-40 
41-90 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



75-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



797 
92 

77 


14 

1 
1 


9 

5 
6 


46 

5 


1 



1 1 





1017 



17 


8 



85-94 AT EXAM 35-64 COMBINED 

PERSON I OF ANNUAL I OF AGE- 

EXAMS EVENTS RATE EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 

27 
6 
5 




39 



65-94 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



15 


1 





39 


6 


6 


4 


1 


1 


4 


4 


4 


22 


2 


2 


5 


4 


4 


rs 


Z 


3 


5 


6 


6 


J 


J 


J 


1 


16 


IS 




















59 


1 


1 


54 


5 


6 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 




0,068 
0.038 
0.024 
0.0O8 
-0.011 


0.028 
0-014 
0.010 
0.013 
O.Oil 


0.015 

o.ooc 

0.013 
O.SlS 
0.7li 


0.96 1 
0.566 
0,331 
0.099 
-0.102 


0. 396 
0.213 
0, 133 
0. 152 
0.282 


85-94 














35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.026 
0.002 


0.008 
0.012 


0.001 
0.«« 


0.377 
0.026 


0.113 
0. 134 


55-64 
65-94 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.032 
0.006 


0.007 
0.012 


» 0.001 
0.628 


0.471 
0.065 


0. 109 
0. 134 


35-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.03S 
0.011 


0.007 
0.012 


0.001 
0.374 


0.510 
0.120 


0. 108 
0. 135 



SEXi FEMALE 

EVENT" UNRECOGNIZED MYOCARDIAL INFARCTION 

RISK FACTOR" CIGARETTES SMOKED (NUMBER PER DAY) 

PERSONS AT RISK" PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 
FACTOR 

NONE 

1-10 
1 1-20 
21-40 
41-90 

UNKNOHN 
TOTAL 



35-44 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

2582 
1314 

137 1 

298 

22 

29 
56 16 



45-54 AT EXAM 
PERSON « OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



5528 

1726 

2009 

622 

37 

37 
9959 



55-64 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



7595 


15 


1 


1566 


4 


1 


1696 


5 


1 


602 


2 


2 


16 


1 


31 


38 








11513 


27 


1 



65-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



4863 


20 


2 


626 


1 


1 


568 


1 


1 


172 














- 


19 








6248 


22 


2 



RISK 
FACTOR 

NONE 

1-10 
1 1-20 
21-40 
41-90 

UNKNOHM 
TOTAL 



AGE AT 
EXAM 

35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 

35-64 
65-94 

J5-64 
65-94 



75-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVEXTS RATE 



1710 


13 


4 


137 








84 








16 














- 


4 








1951 


13 


3 



UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 



BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 

EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 



0,019 

0.035 

-0.063 



0.026 
-0.092 



0.034 
-0.08 1 



35-64 MULTIVARIATE 0.034 

4S-94 MULTIVARIATE -0.078 



117 
4 
2 




IS 

« 
t 

2 
1 



125 


a 

35 


LOGISTIC 


REGRESSIONS 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


0.030 
0.015 
0.052 


0.520 
0.024 
0.224 


0.014 
0.055 


0.070 
0.095 


0.014 
0.055 


0.012 
0. 137 


0.014 
0.054 


0.012 
0. 154 



35-«4 COMBINED 
» OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



65-94 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- - 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 



0. 198 

0.33O 

-0.480 



0.255 
-0.649 



0.339 
-0.574 



0.342 
-0.549 



36 

1 
1 




38 



STD 
SE 



0.308 
0. 146 
0.394 



0. 141 
0.389 



0. 136 
0.386 



0. 137 
0.385 



98 - 



TABLE l-IS DATE=06DECS5 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
Br AGE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAM; FRAMINGHAM STUDY iO-YEAR FOLLOWUP 

SEX: MALE 

EVENT: UNRECOGNIZED MYOCARDIAL INFARCTION 

RISK FACTOR: HEART ENLARGEMENT BY X-RAY 

PERSONS AT risk: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 

FACTOR 

no 

MILD 
DEFINITE 

UHKNOUN 
TOTAL 



35-<i4 AT EXAM "i5-5<< AT EXAM 

PERSON J OF ANNUAL PERSON J OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



'^063 
135 
219 

5 
i*'i72 



i3S3 
650 
6S7 

7TZ<> 




15 



55-64 AT EXAM 65-7:; AT EXAM 

PERSON t OF ANNUAL PERSON » OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



5967 

962 

1119 

1 
$049 



20 

6 

13 


59 



2584 
578 
751 


3913 



17 

4 

16 


37 



RISK 
FACTOR 

NO 

MILD 

DEFINITE 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



7 5-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



589 
178 
250 


1017 




17 



7 

3 

16 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

29 
5 
5 


39 



35-64 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



37 

7 

15 


59 



65-94 COMBINED 
» OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



25 

5 

24 


54 



4 

3 

12 



3 
12 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-34 
85-94 




0.172 
0.626 
0.592 
0.437 


0.381 
0.178 
0. 182 
0.272 


0.652 
0.001 
0.001 
0.108 


0.105 
0.450 
0.471 
0.369 


0.232 
0.12S 
0. 145 
0.230 


35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.594 
0.564 


0.152 
0.151 


0.001 
0.001 


0.379 
0.455 


0.097 
0.122 


35-64 
65-94 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.467 
0.541 


0.155 
0.152 


0.003 
0.001 


0.298 
0.437 


0.099 
0.122 


35-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.324 
0.i72 


0.167 
0.163 


0.052 
0.023 


0.207 
0.300 


0.106 
0.132 



SEX: FEMALE 

EVENT: UNRECOGNIZED MYOCARDIAL INFARCTION 

RISK FACTOR: HEART ENLARGEMENT BY X-RAY 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 
FACTOR 

NO 

HILO 

DEFINITE 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



35-44 AT EXAM 
PERSON » OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

5164 
199 
245 



56)6 



45- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


•54 


1 AT EXAM 
• OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


55- 

PERSON 
EXAMS 


■64 AT EXAM 

t OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


65- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


■74 AT EXAM 

t OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


8017 
943 
993 




6 

1 

1 



1 
1 


7522 
1769 
221 S 


12 

3 
12 


1 
1 

3 


3191 
1 150 
1907 


11 2 
3 1 
8 2 


6 
9959 





8 






4 

1151J 



27 




1 



6248 



22 2 



RISK 
FACTOR 

HO 

MILD 
DEFINITE 

UNKNOHN 
TOTAL 



AGE AT 
EXAM 

35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-34 
85-94 



75-84 AT EXAM 85-94 AT EXAM 

PERSON • OF ANNUAL PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



702 
57 3 
876 


1951 



35-64 
65-94 



BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 



2 

4 
7 


15 



COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 



0.178 
0.612 
0.088 
0.596 



55-64 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



35-64 UNIVARIATE 0.723 
65-94 UNIVARIATE 0.260 



0.485 
0.176 



35-64 nilLTIVARIATE 
65-94 MULTIVARIATE 



52 

30 
61 


18 



125 



35 


LOGISTIC 


REORESSIOHS 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


0.499 
0.213 
0.240 
0.558 


0.721 
0.004 
0.712 
0.241 


0.185 
0. 131 


0.001 
0.151 


0. 192 
0. 185 


0.011 
0.541 


0.204 
0. 195 


0.048 
0.786 



65-94 COMBINED 
t OF AGE- 

EVENTS ■ CRUDE ADJUSTED 



STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 



0.114 
.488 
0.078 
0.5S5 



0.508 
0.252 



0.338 
0. 157 



0.282 
0.047 



14 

7 

17 


38 



STD 
SE 



0.318 

0.169 
0.211 
0.302 



129 
162 



134 
165 



143 
,172 



- 99 



RISK 
FACTOR 

NO 

BORDER 

DEFINITE 

UNKHOHN 
TOTAL 



TABLE. 4-16 DATE=05AUG85 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
»T AGE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAM : FRAMINGHAM STUDY JO-YEAR FOLLQHUP 

SEXi KALE 

EVENT: UNRECOGNIZED MYOCARDIAL INFARCTION 

RISK FACTOR' LEFT VENTRICULAR HYPERTROPHY BY ELECTROCARDIOGRAM 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



JS-'i'i AT EXAM <>5-S'< AT EXAM 

PERSON I OF ANNUAL PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE E.XAMS EVENTS RATE 



7« 
23 


'i'i72 



7«97 
IJ2 
95 


772<i 




IS 



55-64 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



769} 
210 
1<<6 


80<<9 



32 

J 


39 



2 
10 
10 



65-7<i AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



3703 

90 
120 


3913 



27 

6 


37 



4 
22 
25 



( 



RISK 
FACTOR 

NO 

BORDER 
DEFINITE 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



75-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



9^9 
37 
31 


1017 



14 
1 
2 


17 



7 
32 



85-9'i AT tXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

54 
2 
3 


39 



35-6'i COMBINED 
• OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



51 

<i 


59 



65-94 COMBINED 
» OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



<i1 
5 
8 


54 



4 
19 
26 



5 

20 
26 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 

COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
45-74 
75-84 




0.732 
0.925 
1 .050 
0.748 


0.558 
0.259 
0.213 
0.378 


0. 190 
0.001 
0.001 
0.048 


0. 186 
0,285 
0.39 1 
0.289 


0. 142 
0.080 
0.079 
0. 146 


45-94 














35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.940 
0.963 


0.233 

0. 184 


0.001 
0.001 


0.252 
0.36J 


0. 062 
0.070 


35-64 
65-94 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.829 
0.954 


0.254 
0. 185 


0.001 
0.001 


0.222 
. 36 


0. 063 
0.070 


35-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.4J5 
0.755 


0.26 1 
0.208 


0.095 
0.00 1 


0. 1 16 
0.285 


0.070 
0.078 



SEXi FEMALE 

EVENT" UNRECOGNIZED MYOCARDIAL INFARCTION 

RISK FACTOR: LEFT VENTRICULAR HYPERTROPHY BY ELECTROCARDIOGRAM 

PERSONS AT RISK' PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



55-44 AT EXAM 
RISK PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
FACTOR EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

NO 556 5 

BORDER 58 

DEFINITE 15 



45-54 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



9798 
107 
54 



55-64 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



11157 
226 
150 



25 



65-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



5966 
134 
148 



UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 




56 16 




9959 




11515 




27 




(248 




22 



RISK 
FACTOR 

NO 

BORDER 

DEFINITE 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



7 5-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1853 
49 
69 


1*51 




15 



5 


14 



8 5-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



35-64 COMBINED 
• OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



111 

6 
6 


55 

1 
1 


a 

125 



55 



65-94 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTID 



55 

1 
4 


38 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


55-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 




0.571 
0.748 
0.751 


0.459 
0.556 
0.407 


0.214 
0.058 
0.072 


0.151 
0.247 
0.290 


0. 121 
0, 1 19 
0. 16 1 


35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.674 
0.705 


0.456 
0.266 


0.159 

a.oos 


0. 143 
0.248 


0,097 
0,094 


55-64 
65-94 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.448 
0.649 


0.463 
0.268 


0.553 
0.015 


0.095 
0.229 


0.098 
0, 094 


55-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


-0.069 
0.496 


0.498 
0.283 


0.889 

o.oao 


-0.015 

0. 175 


0. 106 
0. 100 



- 100 - 



TABLE 1-17 DATE=06DEC35 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
BY AGE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAM' FRAMINGHAM STUDY 30-YEAR FOLLOWUP 

SEX: MALE 

EVENT: UNRECOGNIZED MYOCARDIAL INFARCTION 

RISK FACTOR: INTRAVENTRICULAR CONDUCTION DEFECT (WITH ORS INTERVAL MORE THAN 0.11 SECOND) 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



JS-II AT EXAM 



RISK 
FACTOR 


PERSON 
EXAMS 


• OF 

■ EVENTS 


ANNUAL 
RATE 


NO 

INCOMPLETE 

COMPLETE 


. <i161 

275 

36 


5 




1 




UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



4472 



5 


1 


RISK 
FACTOR 


7 5- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


81 AT EXAM 

t OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


HO 

INCOMPLETE 

COMPLETE 


918 
21 
78 


15 

2 


8 



u 


UNKNONN 
TOTAL 



1017 



17 


8 



15-51 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



7213 

116 

65 


7721 



15 




15 



85-91 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



31 
2 
6 



39 



55-61 AT EXAM 65-71 AT EXAM 

PERSON * OF ANNUAL PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



7336 
156 
207 


3019 



31 
1 
1 


39 



35-61 COMBINED 
t OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



3566 
133 
161 


3913 



31 5 

2 5 

I 3 



37 5 



65-91 COMBINED 
t OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



19 
2 
3 

9 
51 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 

SE 


35-11 
15-51 
55-61 
65-71 
75-31 
85-91 




0.258 

-0. 126 

0.132 


0.318 
0.109 
0.392 


0.159 

. 0.753 

0.612 


0.099 

-0.056 

0.099 


0.131 
0.152 
0.214 


35-61 
65-91 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.110 
0.031 


0.363 
0.231 


0.762 

0,911 


0.037 
0.014 


0.121 
0.131 


35-61 
65-91 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.010 
-0.007 


0.355 
0.283 


0.976 
0.980 


0.004 
-0.003 


0.118 
0.133 


35-61 
65-91 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


-0.050 
0.018 


0.361 
0.289 


0.890 
0.919 


-0.017 
0.009 


0.120 
0. 136 



SEXi FEMALE 

EVENT: UNRECOGNIZED MYOCARDIAL INFARCTION 

RISK FACTOR: INTRAVENTRICULAR CONDUCTION DEFECT (WITH ORS INTERVAL MORE THAN 0.11 SECOND) 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 
FACTOR 


35- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


■11 AT EXAM 

• OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


15- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


NO 

INCOMPLETE 

COMPLETE 


5529 
75 
12 




9771 

111 

11 


UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



5616 





9959 


RISK 
FACTOR 


7 5- 
PERSOM 
EXAMS 


•81 AT EXAM 

• OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


85 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


NO 

INCOMPLETE 
COMPLETE 


1817 
36 

63 


12 3' 

1 11 



117 
1 

5 


UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



1951 



13 3 



123 



15-51 AT EXAM 

I OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 



8 5-91 AT EXAM 

t OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 



55-64 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



11133 

137 
143 


11513 



27 





27 



65-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON i OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



6027 
115 
106 


6213 



22 2 

' 





22 2 



35-61 COMBINED 65-91 COMBINED 

I OF AGE- I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



35 




35 




38 



AGE AT 
EXAM 

35-41 
15-51 
55-61 
65-71 
75-31 
85-91 

35-64 
65-91 

35-64 
65-94 

35-64 
65-91 



UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 



BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 



COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 



-0.529 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 
P-VALUE 



SE 

COEFFICIENT 



MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 



0.769 

0.303 
0.795 
0.798 



0.510 
0.46 
0.430 



STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 



-0.031 

-0.168 
-0. 186 
-0.200 



STD 
SE 



0.298 

0.255 
0.252 
0.253 



-101 



TABLE "i-IS DATE = 060eCS5 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
BT AGE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAM; FRAMINGMAM STUDY JO-YEAR FOLLOWUP 

SEX: MALE 

EVENT; UNRECOGNIZED MYOCARDIAL INFARCTION 
■ • RISK FACTOR; DEFINITE NONSPECIFIC T-WAVE OR ST-SEGMENT ABNORMALITY BY ELECTROCARDIOGRAM 
PERSONS AT RISK; PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 
FACTOR 



NO 
YES 



35-<«<i AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



«362 
110 



<15-5<i AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 

EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



7352 
372 



1 



55-6'4 AT EXAM tS-ZH AT EXAM 

PERSON t OF ANNUAL PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



7462 
587 



34 
5 



3472 
441 



UNKNOHN 
TOTAL 




4472 




7724 




15 




S049 




39 




3913 




37 



RISK 
FACTOR 



NO 
YES 



75-84 AT EXAM 85-94 AT EXAM 

PERSON f OF ANNUAL PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



830 
187 



14 
3 



28 

n 



35-64 COMBINED 
• OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



53 
6 



65-94 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



43 

1 1 



UNKNOHN 
TOTAL 




1017 




17 




39 




59 




54 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 


- 


0.346 

0.630 

0.786 

-0.051 


1 .036 
0.481 
0.403 
0.641 


0.739 
0.190 ^ 
0.051 
0.937 


o7fl74 
0.164 
0.248 . 

-0.020 


0.222 
0.125 
0. 127 
0.249 


85-94 














35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.711 
0.557 


0.432 
0.341 


0.100 
0. 102 


0.159 
0.187 


0.097 
0.114 


35-64 
65-94 


BIVARIATE 
8IVARIATE 


0.476 
0.483 


0.434 
0.343 


0.273 
0.159 


0.106. 
0.162 


0.097 
0.115 


35-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.016 
0.436 


0.440 
0.347 


0.972 
0.208 


0.003 
0.146 


0.098 
0.116 



SEX; FEMALE " 

EVENT: UNRECOGNIZED MYOCARDIAL INFARCTION 

RISK FACTOR' DEFINITE NONSPECIFIC T-WAVE OR ST-SEGMENT ABNORMALITY BY ELECTROCARDIOGRAM 
PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 
FACTOR 



NO 
YES 



35-44 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

5517 
99 



45-54 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



9543 
416 



55-64 AT EXAM 
PERSON « OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



10647 
866 



24 

3 



65-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON « OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



5528 
720 



20 
2 



UNKNOUN 
TOTAL 




5616 




9959 




11513 




27 




6248 




22 



RISK 
FACTOR 



NO 
YES 



UNKNOHN 
TOTAL 



75-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1632 
319 




1951 




13 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



97 
26 



123 



35-64 COMBINED 
» OF AGE- 

EVEHTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



■ 65-94 COMBINED 
» OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



30 

S 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 


• 


0.431 

-0.265 

1 .173 


0.613 
0.743 
0.573 


0.482 

0.721 
0.041 


0.114 

-0.045 

0.434 


0.162 
0.237 
0.212 


35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.558 
0.601 


0.604 
0.399 


0.356 
. 1 32 


0.123 
0.201 


0.133 
0.133 


35-64 
65-94 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.174 
0.501 


0.607 
0.401 


0.774 
0.212 


0.038 
0.167 


0.133 
0.134 


35-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


Q.OOl 
0.490 


0.612 
0.402 


0, 998 
0.223 


0.000 
0. 164 


0. 135 
0.134 



102 - 



TA£lJi &-1 DATE = 07AUG85 

AVERAGE ANNUAl INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER tOOO PERSONS AT RISK AT EXRM 
BY AGE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAMi FRAMINOHAM STUDY iO-YEAR FOLLOHUP 

SEX: MALE 

eVENTi RECOGNIZED MYOCARDIAL INFARCTION 

RISK FACTOR: SYSTOLIC BLOOD PRESSURE, FIRST EXAMINER (MM HG) 

PERSONS AT RISK; PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 
FACTOR 

7<i-l 19 
120-139 
1^0-159 
160-179 
MO-SOO 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



i5-'i<i AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



I22i 


2 


1 


2165 


10 


2 


S<< 1 


J 


2 


191 


J 


i 


52 





a 








. 


ii't72 


ts 


2 



^15-54 AT EXAM 55-6<i AT EXAM 65-T, AT EXAM 

PERSON I OF ANNUAL PERSON » OF ANNUAL PERSON I OF ftNHUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1769 

St 17 

17J2 

567 

239 


772'i 



12 
2J 
20 

I 1 


a 

66 



3 
J 
6 
10 




KtiiO 

3166 

2090 

9 16 

437 


80<<9 



35 

31 

19 

7 


103 



6 

7 

10 



544 
134 1 
1 194 
552 
278 


391J 



2 

19 

21 

9 

9 


60 



2 

7 
9 
3 
16 



75-84 AT EXAM 
RISK PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
FACTOR EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



35-64 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



65-94 COMBINED 
I OF ACE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



74-1 19 
120-159 
140-159 
160-179 
180-300 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



120 








345 


5 


7 


315 


8 


13 


153 


3 


10 


84 


4 


24 








■ 


1017 


20 


IS 



7 
15 
1 I 
4 
2 


39 



25 


3 


J 


2 


1 


2 


68 


4 


4 


24 


7 


7 


54 


6 


6 


30 


10 


10 


33 


10 


10 


12 


i 


S 


7 


5 


5 


13 


IS 


18 





. 







„ 




187 


5 


4 


SI 


s 


S 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 




COEFFICIENT 


SE 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 


STD 


EXAM 




OF RISK FACTOR 


COEFFICIENT 




COEFFICIENT 


SE 


35-44 




0.023 


0.011 


0.041 


0.380 


0. 186 


45-54 




0.004 


O.OOi 


0. 162 


0.160 


0. 1 14 


55-64 




0.011 


0.004 


0.006 


0.242 


0.088 


65-74 




0.015 


o.oos 


0.003 


0.334 


0.112 


75-84 




0.023 


0.009 


o.on 


0.513 


0.203 


SS-94 














35-64 


UNIVARIATE 


0.014 


0.003 


o.oot 


0.276 


0.063 


65-94 


UNIVARIATE 


0.0 l« 


0.004 


0.001 


0.376 


0.096 


35-64 


8IVARIATE 


0.010 


0.003 


0.001 


0.208 


0.065 


65-94 


aiVARIATE 


0.017 


0.004 


0.001 


0.377 


0.096 


35-64 


MULTIVARIATE 


0.009 


0.003 


0.006 


0. 190 


0.070 


65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 


O.OIS 


0.005 


0.001 


0.348 


0. 103 



RISK 
FACTOR 

74- 1 19 
120-139 
140- 159 
160- 179 
180-300 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



RISK 
FACTOR 

74-1 19 
120-139 
140-159 
160-179 
180-300 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



AGE AT 
EXAM 

35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 

35-64 
65-94 

35-64 
65-94 

35-64 
65-94 



SEXi FEMALE 
EVENT: 
RISK 
PERSONS 



rcnfttc 

c.^fSS^^J^" MYOCARDIAL INFARCTION 
FACTOR: SYSTOLIC BLOOD PRESSURE. FIRST 
NS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF COWNAR? Hi 



35-44 AT EXAM 

PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

2<i93 
2244 

673 

156 
50 


56 16 



7S-S4 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAl 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



o^roo^^"*'* *'■ "*M 

PERSON I OF ANNUAL 

EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

27 14 1 

39S2 5 1 

2053 7 2 

7iS 

442 



EXAMINER (MM HG) 
EART DISEASE 



-s"''^l'::isr asf-'YSsr 




9959 




13 



1979 
405o 
3025 
1560 
893 


11513 




37 



647 
1747 
20 13 
1 155 

636 


6248 



3 

7 

■ 17 

6 

14 


47 



2 

2 

4 

3 

10 



133 

465 
626 
451 
276 


19 5 1 



UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 



BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 



1 

4 
5 
5 
5 


20 



COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 



0.013 
O.OIS 
0.01S 
0.011 



022 

016 



017 
16 



MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 



0.015 
0.013 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAl 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



35-64 COMBINED 
I OF AGE. 

EVENTS CRUDE ABJUSTED 



65-94 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



8 

38 
29 
31 
17 


5 
17 
15 
8 
9 



123 



52 


LOGISTIC 


REGRESSIONS 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


O.OIO 
0.005 
005 
008 


. 193 
0.001 
0.00 1 
0. 173 


. 004 
004 


0.001 
0.001 


0, 004 
. 004 


0.001 
O.OOi 


0.005 
0.005 


0.003 
0.006 



STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 



0.283 
0.450 
.443 
0.278 



509 
397 



409 
383 



3Sl 
306 



12 
23 - 




70 



3 
3 
4 
3 
10 



STD 
SE 



0.221 
0.IZ7 
0. 127 
0.204 



0.095 

0. 105 



105 
106 



103 - 



TABLE 5-2 



DATE=06AUG85 



AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
BY AGE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAMi FRAMIHGHAM STUDY 30-YEAR FOLLOWUP 

SEX: MALE 

EVENT: RECOGNIZED MYOCARDIAL INFARCTION 

RISK FACTOR: DIASTOLIC BLOOD PRESSURE. FIRST EXAMINER (MM HG) 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 
FACTOR 

Z0-7<i 
75-81 
85-94 
9S-10« 
105-160 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



35-<('* AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1012 


1 





140"* 


H 


1 


1 187 


7 


J 


499 


5 


5 


170 


1 


i 


0' 





. 


4472 


18 


2 



IS-SI AT EXAM 55-6't AT EXAM 

PERSON t OF ANNUAL PERSON » OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1478 
2766 
2062 
1008 
410 


7724 



13 
19 
17 




66 



1847 
2845 
1964 
982 
4 I 1 


8049 



18 
32 
34 
14 
5 


103 



65-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1225 


15 


6 


1323 


21 


8 


893 


15 


8 


343 


7 


10 


129 


2 


8 








. 


3913 


60 


8 



( 



75-84 AT EXAM 
RISK PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
FACTOR EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON » OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



35-64 COMBINED 
• OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



65-94 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



20-74 

75-84 

85-94 

95-104 

105-160 

UNKNOMN 
TOTAL 



422 


6 


7 


331 


7 


1 1 


204 


6 


15 


44 








16 


1 


31 








_ 


1017 


20 


10 



22 
12 
5 





39 



32 


4 




22 


7 




55 


4 




28 


8 




58 


< 




21 


10 




30 


« 




7 


9 




12 


6 




3 


10 


13 





. 







. 




187 


5 


4 


81 


8 


8 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


3S-«« 

4S-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 




0.049 
O.OIt 

0.015 
0.014 
0.020 


0.018 
0.010 
0.008 
0.010 
0.019 


0.005 
0.290 
0.06 1 
0. 159 
0.295 


0.551 
0. 127 
0. 176 
0. 173 
0.231 


0. 198 
0. 120 
0.094 
0. 123 
0.220 


35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.017 
0.013 


8.006 
009 


0.003 
. 144 


0.204 
0, 157 


0.069 
0. 107 


35-64 
65-94 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.017 
0.014 


0.006 
0.009 


0.003 
0. 126 


0.201 
0. 166 


0.068 
0. 109 


35-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.017 
0.011 


0.006 
0.007 


0.005 
0.232 


0.20Z 
0. 155 


0.072 
0. 1 12 



SEX: FEMALE 

EVENT: RECOGNIZED MYOCARDIAL INFARCTION 

RISK FACTOR: DIASTOLIC BLOOD PRESSURE. FIRST EXAMINER (MM HG) 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



/' 

V 



RISK 
FACTOR 

20-74 
75-84 
85-94 
95-104 
105- 160 

UNKIIOMII 
TOtAL 



RISK 
FACTOR 

20-74 
75-84 
85-94 
95- 104 
105-160 

UriKMOHH 
TOTAL 



AGE AT 
EXAM 

35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 



35-44 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

2164 
2030 

987 

324 

I I I 


56 16 



45-54 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



55-1.4 AT EXAM 65-74 AT EXAM 

PERSON I OF ANNUAL PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



2639 

354 1 

236 1 

926 

492 


2 
2 

8 , 


1 




2 

a 

1 


2949 
3853 
2840 
1272 
579 


7 
9 
10 
6 

5 


1 

1 

2 
2 

4 


1831 

2135 

1439 

600 

243 


15 
12 
12 

3 
5 


4 

3 

4 

3 

10 



9959 



13 


1 



1 15 13 



37 


2 



6248 



47 


4 



75-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON » OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



35-64 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



724 


7 


5 


596 


9 


8 


443 


3 


3 


144 


I 


3 


42 








a 





. 


1951 


20 


5 



COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 



0.023 

0.029 

0.014 

-0.030 



35-64 
45-94 



35-64 
65-94 



35-64 
65-94 



UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 



BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 



031 
000 



026 
002 



MULTIVARIATE 0.020 
MULTIVARIATE -0.002 



53 

43 

20 

7 




10 

1 1 

18 
7 
6 


a 

123 



52 


LOGISTIC 


REGRESSIONS 


SE 

COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


02O 
0.012 
0.011 
0.020 


0.242 
0.012 
0.229 
0. 127 


0.010 
0.010 


0.001 
0.999 


0.010 
0.010 


0.008 
0.84<> 


0.011 
0.010. 


0.056 
O.SIO 



65-94 COMBINED 
t OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 






2 . 
1 
2 

1 


23 

25 

15 

4 

5 


70 


- 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 




STD 
SE 


0.284 

0.36 1 

0.168 

-0.364 




0.243 
0. 144 
0. 140 
0.239 


0.375 
0.000 . 




0. 1 18 
0. 120 


0.322 
023 




0. 122 
0. 120 


0.249 
-0.029 




0. 130 
0. 120 



- 104 



TABLE 5-3A DATE-03SEP8 5 
AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSO.IS AT RISK AT EXAM 
BY ACE AND LEVEL OF RIS^ FACTOR AT EXAM" "" " ■"" '"' ' 



FRAHINGHAM STUDY iO-YEAR FOLLQWUP 



SEX: MALE 

EVENT: RECOGNIZED MYOCARDIAL INFARCTION ,..„,„^ ^„^.__,,t 
RISK FACTOR: HYPERT EMSION WITH ;.\-TIH-.'?ERTENSIVE TT!EAT>fENT 
PERSONS AT RISK: PERSOHS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



J5-^<i AT EXAM 
RISK PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
FACTOR EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



<iS-5'< AT EXAM 55-6'i AT EXAM 65-74 AT EXAM 

PERSON I OF ANNUAL PERSON I OF ANNUAL PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



NO 

BORDER 
DEFINITE 
TREATED 

UNKNOHN 
TOTAL 



26 51 

1301 

500 

20 


^172 



7 
6 
<• 
1 


18 



1122 

2205 

1 139 

258 


27 

21 

l<i 

<< 


i 
5 
6 
♦ 


3782 

2299 

1266 

702 


3(. 

mO 

19 

i 


5 
9 
8 
6 


1516 
1252 
552 
59J 


1 1 
22 
12 
15 



7720 



6i 


4 



80'<9 



103 


6 



3913 



60 



RISK 
FACTOR 

NO 

BORDER 
DEFINITE 
TREATED 

UNKHOMN 
TOTAL 



75-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON i OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



373 
333 
123 
138 


1017 



4 
6 
<i 
6 


20 



5 

9 

16 

16 



S5-9A AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1 1 
3 

7 




39 



35-6A COMBINED 
« OF AGE- 

EVEMTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



70 
67 
37 
13 


187 



65-94 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVEHTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



15 
29 
16 
21 


81 



4 
9 
12 
13 



4 
9 
12 
14 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE- AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISli FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-34 




0.644 
0.344 
0.205 
0.553 
0.565 


0.297 
0.151 
0.119 
0. 165 
0.29 1 


0.030 
0.023 
0.085 
0.001 
0.052 


0.447 
0.264 
0. 167 
0.453 
0.462 


0.206 
0. 1 16 
0.097 
0,135 
0.238 


85-94 














35-64 
65-94 


lUIIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.347 
0.554 


0.089 
0. 142 


.001 
0.001 


0.270 
0.454 


0.069 
0. 117 


35-64 
65-94 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.275 
0.55J 


0.090 
0.142 


0.002 
0.001 


0.214 
0.453 


0.070 
0. 1 17 


35-64 
65-94 


MUL riVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.258 
0.511 


0.094 
0. 146 


0.006 
0.001 

a 


0.200 
0.419 


0.073 
0.12-8 



SEX: FEMALE 

EVENT: RECOGNIZED MYOCARDIAL INFARCTION 

RISK FACTOR: HYPERTENSION WITH A.NTIHT?ERTEMSIVE TREATMNT 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 

FACTOR 



NO 

BORDER 
DEFINITE 
TREATED 

UNKNOHII 
TOTAL 



35-44 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



4250 

1QQI 

316 

49 




56 16 



45-54 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



55-64 AT EXAM 65-74 AT EXAM 

PERSON « OF ANNUAL PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



5622 

2579 

1166 

592 


4 
7 

2 



1 


2 


4888 
3282 
1835 
1508 


7 
10 
1 1 

9 


1 

2 
3 
3 


1767 
1903 
1035 
1543 


8 
10 

7 
22 


2 
3 
3 
7 



9959 



13 


1 



1 1513 



37 


2 



6248 



47 


4 



75-84 AT EXAM 
RISK PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
FACTOR EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



35-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



35-64 COMBINED 
I OF AOE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



65-9<t COMBINED 
• OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



NO 

BORDER 
DEFINITE 
TREATED 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



402 
57 5 
37 1 
603 


1951 



4 

5 
4 
7 


20 



31 
28 
21 
43 


123 



12 
17 
12 
1 I 


52 



13 
16 



3a 




70 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



ACE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STO 
SE 


35-44 
45-54 
55-04 
65-74 
75-34 
85-94 




0.363 
0.7 11 
0.516 
0.095 


0.334 
0.210 
. 199 
0292 


0.277 

0.001 
O.OIO 
0.746 


0.279 
0. 594 
0.425 
0.075 


0.257 
0. 176 
0. 164 
0.230 


35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.796 
0.37 1 


0. 167 
0. 159 


0.001 
0.020 


0.631 
0.304 


0. 133 
0. 130 


35-64 
65-94 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.607 
0.346 


0. 173 
Q. 160 


0.00 1 
0.030 


0.48 1 
0.283 


0. 137 
0.131 


35-o4 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.522 
0.250 


. 0. 18 1 
Q. 163 


0.004 
0. 125 


0.414 
0.204 


. 144 
0. 133 



- 105 - 



RISK 
FACTOR 

MO 

MILD 

DEFINITE 

UIIKMOHN 
TOTAL 



TABLE 5-38 DATE=100EC85 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
BT AGE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAM: FRAMINGHAM STUDY JO-YEAR FOLLOWUP 

sex: MALE 

EVENT: RECOGNIZED MYOCARDIAL INFARCTION 

RISK FACTOR: HYPERTENSION IGNORING TREATMENT 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 

35-'.<4 AT EXAM 'iS-S'i AT EXAM 55-61 AT EXAM 65-7A AT EXAM 

PERSON • OF ANNUAL PERSON I OF ANNUAL PERSON I OF ANNUAL PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



2653 
lilO 
.509 





7 
6 
5 


IS 



1 IISI 28 3 

2 22S'< 22 5 
5 1286 16 6 




772". 




66 



3909 
2533 
1557 


80<<9 



38 
41 
24 


103 



1631 

1499 

783 


3913 



1 4 4 

29 1 

17 11 



60 a 



( 



75-84 AT EXAM 
RISK PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
FACTOR EX;\MS EVENTS RATE 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



35-64 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



65-94 COMBINED 
» OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



NO 412 

MILD 418 
DEFINITE 187 


5 
8 

7 


6 

9 


21 
IS 

3 




73 
69 
45 


3 
6 

7 


4 

5 
7 


19 
38 
24 


5 
10 
12 


5 
10 
12 


UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 1017 



20 






39 





187 


5 


5 



81 


8 


8 












LOGISTIC 


REGRESSIONS 












AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VAIUE 




STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 




"STD 
SE 




35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
35-94 




0.654 
0.314 
0.255 
0.453 
0.584 






0.298 
0.154 
0.124 
0.168 
0.301 


028 
0.042 
0.039 
0.007 
0.053 




0.452 
0.236 
0. 197 
0.346 
0.429 




0.206 
0.116 
0.095 
0.127 
0.222 




35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.356 
0.489 






0.092 

p. 146 


0.001 
0.001 




0.267 . 
0.367 




0.069 
0.109 




35-64 
65-94 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.302 
0.489 






0.092 
0.146 


o.goi 

0.001 




0.227 
0.367 




0.069 
0.109 




35-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.279 
0.447 






0.097 
0.152 


0.004 
0.003 




0.209 
0.3J5 




0.073 
0.114 





SEX: FEMALE 

EVENT: RECOGNIZED MYOCARDIAL INFARCTION 

RISK FACTORi HYPERTENSION IGNORING TREATMENT 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



35-44 AT EXAM 
RISK PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
FACTOR EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



45-i4 AT EXAM 
PERSON » OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



55-64 AT EXAM 
PERSON S OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



65-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



NO 

MILD 
DEFINITE 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



RISK 
FACTOR 



4272 

1016 

323 


5616 



75-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



saot 

27«3 
1392 


4 
9 




2 




5245 
3860 
2408 


1 1 
13 
13 


1 
2 
3 


2035 
2549 
1664 


9 
21 
17 


2 
4 
5 



9959 



13 


1 



11513 



37 


2 



6248. 



47 


4 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



35-64 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



65-94 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



NO 507 
MUO 827 
DEFINITE 617 


4 

7 
9 


4 
4 
7 


37 
45 
41 




16 
22 
14 


1 1 

1 1 

2 1 ■ 


14 
29 
27 


3 
4 
6 


5 
4 
6 


UNKNOMN 
TOTAL 1951 



20 


5 


S 
123 





52 


1 1 


0- 
70 


4 


4 












LOOISTIC 


REGRESSIONS 




~ 






AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 

COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 




STD 
SE 


- 


35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
35-94 




0.240 
0.474 
0.395 
0.351 






0.358 
0.205 
0.194 
0.307 


0.503 
0.021 
0.041 
0.254 


0.174 
0.369 
303 
0.265 




0.260 
0.159 
0.149 
0.233 




35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.600 
0.375 






0.169 
0.160 


0.001 
0.019 


0.444 
0.288 




0.125 
0.122 




35-64 
65-94 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0,420 
0.356 






0.174 
0.160 


0.016 
0.026 


0.311- 
0.273 




0.129 
0.123 


" 


35-64 
65-94 


IIIILTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.309 
0.264 






0.185 
0.164 


0.096 
0. 107 


0.228 
0.202 




0.137 
0.126 





106 



TABLE 5-i DATE-07a'JGS5 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
BY AGE AND LEVEt OF RISK. FACTOR AT EXAM: FRAMINGHAM 5TUDT 30-TEAR FOLLOWUP 

SEX: MALE 

EVENT: RECOGNIZED MTOCARDIAL INFARCTION 

RISK FACTOR: SERUM CHOLESTEROL 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 
FACTOR 

5'4-20'i 
205-234 
2JS-264 
265-294 
295-1 124 

UNKNOHN 
TOTAL 



35-44 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1253 
1247 
872 
475 
291 

534 
4472 



3 
2 
2 

5 

4 

2 
18 



4 5-54 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1767 
2306 
1745 
1001 
557 


12 
20 
12 
10 
ID 


3 
4 
3 
5 
9 


348 
7724 


2 
6i 


3 
4 



55-64 AT EXAM 65-74 AT EXAM 

PERSON 1 OF ANNUAL PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



2255 


21 


5 


2405 


32 


7 


18S9 


24 


6 


9 13 


14 


3 


454 


8 


9 


128 


4 


16 


8049 


103 


6 



1234 


15 


6 


1 17 1 


17 


7 


373 


'17 


10 


428 


5 


6 


191 


5 


15 


16 


1 


31 


3913 


60 


3 



7 5-84 AT EXAM 
RISK PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
FACTOR EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



85-94 AT EXAM 35-64 COMBINED 

PERSON i OF ANNUAL f OF AGE- 

EXAMS EVENTS RATE EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



65-94 COMBINED 
t OF AGE- 

EVEHTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



84-204 
205-234 
235-264 
265-294 
295-1 124 

UNKNOHN 
TOTAL 



390 
532 

177 
96 
22 


1017 




20 



12 
9 

11 
5 




17 
1 1 
5 
6 



39 



ii 


3 




25 


8 


7 


54 


5 




23 • 


3 


7 


38 


4 




21 


10 


10 


29 


6 




6 


6 


6 


ZZ 


3 




5 


12 


10 


3 ' 


5 


8 


1 


31 


24 


187 


5 


4 


81 


3 


8 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AOE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 

se 


35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 




0.011 
0.005 
0.004 
0.005 
-0.001 


0.004 
0.003 
0.002 
0.003 
0.006 


0. 002 
0.043 
0.064 
0. 152 
0.335 


0.508 . 
0.216 
0.173 
0. 183 
-0.047 


0. 165 
0. 109 
0.096 
0. 123 
0.223 


35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.005 
0.003 


0.002 
0.003 


0.001 
0.313 


0.229 

O.HZ 


0.066 
0.111 


35-64 
65-94 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.006 
0.003 


0.002 
0.003 


0.001 
0.295 


O.Z4« 
0.117 


0.068 
. I 1 1 


35-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.005 
0.003 


0.002 
0.003 


0.001 
0.300 


0.222 
0.116 


0.068 
0.111 



RISK 

FACTOR 



34-204 
205-234 
255-264 
265-294 
295-1 124 

UIIKNOI'UI 
TOTAL 



RISK 
FACTOR 

34-204 
205-234 
235-264 
265-294 
295-1124 

UNKNOHN 
TUIAL. 



SEX: FEMALE 

EVENT: RECOGNIZED MYOCARDIAL INFARCTION 

RISK FACTOR: SERUM CHOLESTEROL 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



PF».;n5^*.*nc"*^ '^5-54 AT EXAM 

iv?59" J °'^ ANNUAL PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE E>:AMS EVENTS RATE 



55-04 AT EXAM 65-74 AT TYan 

p|?S?'' J 2'= *'"*"*'• fERSON • OF Annual 

«AM5 EVENTS RATE E;tAMS EVENTS RATE 



2350 

1417 

306 

372 

17 1 

500 
56 16 



PERSON 
EXAMS 

36 1 
486 
542 
350 
205 

7 
1951 



75-84 AT EXAM 



• OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 



3 
5 
6 
3 
3 


20 



2094 
2558 
2259 
1473 
1101 

474 
9959 



2 
13 



1625 
26 15 
2938 
2240 
1366 

229 
1 1513 




37 



739 
1401 
1703 
1237- 
1031 

37 
6243 



2 

6 
10 
1 1 

IS 


47 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

46 

28 

35 

9 




123 



I OF 

EVENTS 



55-64 COMBINED 



9 
17 



2 
52 



CRUDE 



AGEt 
ADJUSTED 



I OF 
EVENTS 

6". 
12 
16 
15 
21 


70 



65-94 COMBINED 



CRUDE 



AGE- • 
ADJUSTED 



ACE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


3£ 
COEFFICIENT 


35-44 








45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-34 
85-94 




0.008 
0. 009 
0.013 
0.005 


0.002 
0.005 
0.005 
0.005 


55-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0. OlO 
0.009 


0.002 
0.003 


35-64 
65-94 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.009 
0.0 10 


0.002 
0.003 


55-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.008 
0.010 


0.002 
0.003 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 
P-VALUE 



0.001 
0.002 
0.00 I 
0.513 



001 
001 



00 I 
001 



00 1 

o:i 



STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 



0.366 
0.432 
0.570 
0. 144 



455 
403 



407 
439 



363 
457 



STD 
SE 



0. 100 

0. 140 
0. 130 
0.220 



093 
1 1 1 



084 
1 12 



0. 085 
0. I 12 



107 



TABIE 5-5 DATE=10DEC85 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
BY AGE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAMi FRAMINCHAM STUDY 30-YEAR FOLLOHUP 

SEX- MALE 

EVENT: RECOGNIZED MYOCARDIAL INFARCTION 

RISK FACTOR- HEMATOCRIT 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



( 



RISK 
FACTOR 

25-42 

<i5-<i6 

■49-70 

UNKNONN 
TOTAL 



35-41 AT EXAM 45-54 AT EXAM 55-64 AT EXAM 

PERSON • OF ANNUAL PERSON » OF ANNUAL PERSON » OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



623 


4 


3 


546 








m 


t 


1 


775 


1 


I 


1175 


10 


4 


370 


2 


3 


4472 


IS 


2 



942 

967 

1854 

1 51 

2066 

385 
7724 



3 

3 

15 

18 

19 

3 
66 



1015 
985 
1953 
1599 
2338 

156 
8049 



13 
7 
22 
26 
31 

4 
103 



13 
6 



65-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



450 


6 




493 


9 




963 


9 




861 


1 1 




1127 


24 


1 1 


19 


1 


26 


3913 


60 





RISK 
FACTOR 

25-42 
43-44 

45-46 
47-48 
49-70 

UNKNONN 
TOTAL 



75-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON « OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



214 


3 


7 


119 


3 


13 


240 


6 


13 


197 


3 


8 


247 


5 


10 








_ 


1017 


20 


10 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON » OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

16 

5 
7 
7 




39 



35-64 COMBINED 
• OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



65-94 COMBINED 
» OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



20 


4 


4 


9 


7 


7 


15 


3 


3 


12 • 


10 


10 


38 


4 


4 


16 


7 


7 


45 


6 


6 


14 


7 


7 


60 


5 


5 


29 


11 


10 


9 


5 


7 


1 


26 


21 


187 


5 


5 


81 


8 


8 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


5E 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STO 
SE 


35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 




0.127 
0.037 
0.031 
0.053 
-0.009 


0.069 
0.035 
0.027 
0.036 
0.054 


0.063 
0.291 
0.256 
0.141 
0.869 


0.467 
0.134 
0.116 
0.196 
-0.037 


0.252 
0.127 
0.102 
0.133 
0.225 


85-94 














35-64 
65-94 


IIIIIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.042 
0.031 


0.021 
0.030 


0.039 
0.298 


0.156 
0.119 


0.076 
0.114 


35-64 
65-94 


OIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.041 
0.033 


0.02O 
0.030 


0.047 
0.274 


0.150 
. 1 26 


0.075 
0.115 


35-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
nULTIVARIATE 


0.019 
0.029 


0.021 
0.030 


0.350 
0.339 


0.072 
0.112 


0.077 
0.117 



r 



SEX: FEMALE 

EVENT: RECOGNIZED MYOCARDIAL INFARCTION 

RISK FACTOR: HEMATOCRIT 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 
FACTOR 

21-39 
40-41 
42-43 
44-45 
46-6 5 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



35-44 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

1697 

967 
1043 

8S6 

487 

566 
5616 



45-54 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1843 
1711 
1955 
Z19« 
16S1 

545 
9959 





3 
4 
4 

2 
13 



55-64 AT EXAM 
PERSON i OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1553 
2061 
2260 
2847 
2521 

271 
11513 



6 
6 
6 
3 
1 1 


37 



65-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



646 
1069 
1256 
1609 
1626 

42 
6248 



6 

7 

5 

13 

16 


47 



RISK 
FACTOR 

21-39 
40-41 
42-43 
44-45 
46-65 

UIIKNOHH 
TOTAL 



75-«« AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



297 
373 
353 
486 
436 

6 
1951 



5 

3 
1 
5 
6 


20 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

24 
31 
19 
26 
23 


123 



35-64 COMBINED 
t OF AGE- 

EVEKTS CRUDE - ADJUSTED 



7 

6 

9 

13 

IS 

2 
52 



65-94 COMBINED 
• OF AOE- - 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



12 


6 


1 1 


4 


7- 


2 


18 


4 


22 


5 








70 


4 



AGE AT 
EXAM 

35-44 . 

45-54 

55-64 

65-74 

75-84 

85-94 

35-64 
65-94 

35-64 
65-94 

35-64 
65-94 



COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 



0.231 

0.042 

0.062 

-0.030 



UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 



BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 



MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 



108 
013 



077 
017 



010 
004 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 
P-VALUE 



SE 
COEFFICIENT 



0.082 
0.048 
043 
0.057 



040 
033 



041 
033 



039 
033 



0.005 
0.380 
0.143 
0.600 



007 
702 



061 
606 



793 
900 



STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 



0.823 

0. 146 

0.218 

-0.115 



390 
046 



276 
062 



037 
015 



STD 
SE 



0.294 
0.166 
0.149 
0.220 



144 
121 



147 
120 



e 



0.141 
0.120 



108 - 



TABLE 5-6 DATE=tODEC85 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
BY AGE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAMi FRAMINGHAM STUDY 30-YEAR FOLLOWUP 

SEX- MALE 

EVENT: RECOGNIZED MYOCARDIAL INFARCTION 

RISK FACTOR: SLOOD GLUCOSE CMG^DL) 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 
FACTOR 


35- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


<i"* AT EXAM 

1 OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


■15- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


54 AT EXAM 

1 OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


55- 

PERSON 
EXAMS 


6 4 AT EXAM 

9 OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


65- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


74 AT EXAM 

» OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


29-69 

70-39 

90-109 

110-129 

130-52'* 


992 

2-501 

626 

105 

4S 


5 
10 
1 




3 
2 
1 
Q 



1490 

4172 

1348 

305 

193 


1 1 
30 
16 

5 
2 


4 
4 
6 
8 
S 


1087 

4056 

1866 

537 

408 


1 4 

50 

25 

3 

3 


6 
6 

7 
7 
4 


421 

1761 

1046 

335 

334 


2 

27 

14 

9 

7 


2 

8 

7 

13 

1 


UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 


200 
'*<.72 


2 
18 


3 
2 


216 
772<i 


2 
66 


5 

4 


95 
8049 


3 
103 


16 

6 


16 
3913 


1 
60 


31 
8 



75-84 AT EXAM 
RISK PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
FACTOR EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



29-69 

70-89 

90-109 

1 1 0-129 

130-524 



UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



62 


2 


16 


377 


8 


1 1 


328 


7 


It 


125 


2 


8 


125 


1 


4 








_ 


1017 


20 


10 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

1 
11 
14 

4 

9 


39 



35-64 COMBINED 
t OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



30 
90 
42 
13 
5 

7 
187 



65-94 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



4 
35 
21 
11 

9 

1 
81 



12 
10 



31 
8 



7 
12 
10 

25 
3 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 




-0.013 
0.004 

-O.OOI 
0.007 

-0.012 


0.019 
0.004 
0.004 
0.002 
0.010 


0.512 
0.376 
0.300 
0.001 
0.246 


-0.216 
0.086 

-0.027 
0.247 

-0.330 


0.329 
0.097 
0.106 
0.076 
0.328 


85-94 














35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.002 
0.006 


0.003 
0.002 


0.359 
0.007 


0.059 
0.200 


0.064 
0.075 


35-64 
65-94 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


-0.000 
0.006 


0.003 
0.002 


0.942 

0.008 


-0.005 
0.200 


0.072 
0.075 


35-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


-0.000 
0.005 .. 


0.003 
0.002 


0.969 
0.028 


-0.003 
0.168 


0.072 
0.076 



SEX: FEMALE 

EVENT' RECOGNIZED MYOCARDIAL INFARCTION 

RISK FACTOR! BLOOD GLUCOSE (HG/DL) 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



FACTOR 

29-69 

70-89 

90-1 09 

1 10-129 

130-524 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



35-44 AT EXAM 
PERSON i OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

1066 

3412 

672 

96 

39 

331 
5616 



45-54 AT EXAM 
PERSON » OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



55-64 AT EXAM 
PERSON ♦ OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



65-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1797 


3 


1 


136 9 




2 


521 


5 


5 


5744 


5 





6093 


13 


I 


3102 


17 


3 


1625 








2712 




2 


1732 


16 


5 


301 








730 




2 


501 


2 


2 


159 


3 


9 


4 33 




7 


360. 


7 


10 


333 


2 


3 


166 








32 








9959 


13 


1 


11513 


37 


2 


6243 


47 


4 



RISK 
FACTOR 

29-69 

70-39 

90-109 

1 10-129 

130-524 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



AGE AT 
EXAM 

35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-34 
55-94 

35-64 
65-94 

35-64 
65-94 

35-64 
65-94 



75-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



105 
823 
640 
219 
163 

1 
1951 



1 
8 
5 

3 
3 


20 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 



0.012 
0.011 
0.010 
0.00« 



UNIVARIATE 

UNIVARIATE 



BP/ARIATE 
BIVARIATE 



niJlTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 



0.013 
0.008 



0.011 
0.008 



0.008 
O.OOS 



3 

44 
51 

13 
12 


9 
20 
9 
3 
9 



123 


2 
52 


LOGISTIC 


REGRESSIONS 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


0.007 
0.003 
0.003 
O.OOS 


0.064 
0.001 
0.001 
0.405 


0.002 
0.002 


0.001 
0.001 


0.003 
O.0O2 


0.001 
0. 001 


0.003 
0.002 


0.003 
0.001 



35-64 COMBINED 
» OF - AOE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



65-94 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 



0.242 
0.273 
0.278 
0.136 



276 
246 



231 
235 



176 
228 



6 
2«- 
21 

5 

12 


70 



3 
11 



STD 
SE 



0.130 
0.072 
0.076 
0. 163 



054 
066 



058 
067 



060 
069 



5 

J 

4 
3 

11 


4 



- 109 - 



TfreiUE 5-7 



DATE-07AUG8S 



AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT FKiM 
SY AGE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAM. FRAMINGNAM sfuBT JO-YMR FOLlSw 

SEXi MALE 

EVENT I RECOGNIZED MYOCARDIAL INFARCTIOM 

RISK FACTOR! DIABETES MELLITUS 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 
FACTOR 


iS- 

PERSON 
EXAMS 


'!'> AT EXAM 

1 OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


MO 
YES 


<i424 


IS 2 




UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 






IS 2 


RISK 
FACTOR 


75- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


S"* AT EXAM 

1 OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


NO 
YES 


900 
117 


20 1 t 




UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



1017 



20 10 



PERSON 
EXAMS 



7<iS6 
23S 



«5-5* AT EXAM 



I OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 




772<i 



6<< 
2 




6i 



a5-9<i AT EXAM 
PERSON f OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

3<* 
5 




39 



55-61 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



65-74 AT EXAM 



7519 
500 




S019 



96 
7 




103 



PERSON 
EXAMS 



5501 
109 




39 13 



I OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 



35-61 COMBINED 
• OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



178 
9 




\»7 



19 

1 1 




60 



7 
13 



c 



65-91 COMBINED 
• OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 

69 8 8 

12 II II 




81 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 

COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


3S-1« 




„ 


. 








15-51 
55-61 
65-71 

75-81 
85-91 




-0.0)7 
O.097 
0.667 


0.721 
0.391 
0.338 


0.981 
0.805 
0.018 


-0.003 
0.021 
0.201 


0. 125 

0.095 

• 0. 103 


35-61 
65-91 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.227 
0.3SI 


0.311 
0.316 


0.509 
0.228 


0.011 ' 
0. lis 


0.066 
0.098 


35-61 
65-91 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


-O.OII 
0.379 


0.316 
0.316 


0.971 
0.231 


-0.002 
0.117 


0.067 
0.098 


35-61 
65-91 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


-0.376 
0.235 


0.171 
0.520 


0.127 
0.652 


-0.073 
0.073 


0.092 
0. 16 1 



SEX I FEMALE 

EVENT: RECOGNIZED MYOCARDIAL INFARCTION 

RISK FACTOR: DIABETES MELLITUS 

PERSONS AT risk: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



35-11 AT EXAM 



RISK 
FACTOR 


PERSON 
EXAMS 


t OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


NO 
YES 


5573 
13 




UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



56 16 




RISK 
FACTOR 


75-8< 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


AT EXAM 
• OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


NO 
YES 


1738 
2tS 


17 5 

J 7 


UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



19SI 



20 5 



15-51 AT EXAM 55-61 AT EXAM 

PERSON a OF ANNUAL PERSON « OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



65-71 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



976 
199 




9959 



10 
3 




13 



85-91 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

106 
17 




123 



10985 
528 


29 
8 


1 

8 


5780 
168 


35 

12 


3 
13 



11513 



37 


2 



6218 



17 


1 


35-61 
e OF 
EVENTS 


COMBINED 

AGE- 
CRUDE ADJUSTED 


65- 
» OF 
EVENTS 


91 COMBINED 

AGE- 
CRUBE ADJUSTED 


10 
12 


1 
8 


1 
9 


S3 
17 


3 


3 
12 


B 
52 


1 


1 


o" 

70 


1 


1 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 

COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


35-11 
15-51 
55-61 
65-71 

75-81 
85-91 




2.703 
1.760 

1.163 
0.369 


0.662 
0.102 
0.338 
0.630 


0.001 
0.00 1 
0.001 
0.55S 


0.378 
0.368 
0.385 
0. 1 IS 


0.093 
0.051 
0.089 
0. 197 


35-41 
65-91 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


2.312 
1.27 1 


0.3SI 
0.282 


0.001 
0.001 


0.389 
0.352 


0.055 
0.078 


35-61 
65-91 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


2.021 
1.227 


0.336 
0.213 


0.001 
0.001 


0.336 
0.310 


0.056 
0.079 


55-41 
05-91 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


1 150 
1 .289 


0.784 
0.578 


0.061 
0.026 


0.211 
0.357 


0. tiO 
0. 160 



- LIO 



TABLE 5-8 DATE=10DEC8S 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
BY AGE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAM'- FRAMINGHAM STUDY JO-YEAR FOLLOWUP 

SEX: MALE 

EVENT: RECOGNIZED MYOCARDIAL INFARCTION 

RISK FACTOR; GLUCOSE IN URINE, DEFINITE OR TRACE 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 
FACTOR 


35- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


<<'i AT EXAM 

t OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


15- 
PERSQN 
EXAMS 


S* 


AT EXAM 
1 OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


55- 

PERSON 
EXAMS 


61 AT EXAM 

t OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


65-71 AT EXAM 
PERSON 1 OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 


NO 
YES 


<<3S0 
6jO 


18 



2 



7535 
168 




62 
1 


(4 

12 


7815 
210 


9J 
9 


6 
21 


3767 
110 


52 

8 


7 
29 


UNKNOHN 
TOTAL 


32 
<i<i72 



IS 



2 


21 
772:4 





66 



4 


21 
8019 


1 
103 


21 
6 


6 
3913 



60 



8 


RISK 
FACTOR 


75- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


«"i AT EXAM 

f OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


85- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


9« 


AT EXAM 
1 OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


35- 
• OF 
EVENTS 


64 COMBINED 

AGE- 
CRUDE AOJUSTEE 


65- 
♦ OF 
EVENTS 


91 COMBINED 

AGE- 
CRUDE ADJU 


NO 
YES 


9i6 
2S 


19 
I 


10 
IS 


38 
1 








173 
13 


1 
15 


1 
13 


71 
10 


7 
30 


3 


UNKNOHN 
TOTAL 


J 
1017 



20 



10 


a 

39 








1 
187 


6 

5 


8 

5 



81 



S 





LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


35-11 
15-51 
55-61 
65-71 
75-81 




1.078 
1.313 
1 .166 
0.631 


0.522 
0.356 
0.390 
1.011 


0.039 
0.001 
0.001 
0.511 


0. 158 
0.210 
0.272 
0. 101 


• 0.076 
0.057 
0.072 
0.171 


85-91 














35-61 
65-91 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


1.211 
1.131 


0.292 
0.317 


0.001 
0.001 


0.181 
0.260 


0.013 
0.Q63 


35-61 
65-91 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


1 .110 
1.135 


0.293 
0.317 


0.001 
0.001 


0.166 
0.260 


0.013 
0.063 


35-61 
65-91 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


1.115 
1 .330 


0.307 
0.351 


O.001 
0.001 


0.163 
0.211 


0.015 
0.061 



SEX: FEMALE 

EVENT: RECOGNIZED MYOCARDIAL INFARCTION 

RISK FACTOR: GLUCOSE IN URINE, DEFINITE OR TRACE 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 
FACTOR 



NO 
YES 



UNKNOHN 
TOTAL 



35-11 AT EXAM 
PERSON * OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

5537 
11 



38 
5616 



15-51 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



55-61 AT EXAM 

PERSON » OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



65-71 AT EXAM 
PERSON « OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



9811 
91 


13 



1 



11316 
111 


31 

3 


1 
10 


6131 
107 


11 

3 


1 
11 


21 
9959 



13 




1 


23 
11513 



37 



2 


10 ■ 
6218 



17 




1 



RISK 

FACTOR 



NO 
YES 



75-81 AT EXAM 85-91 AT EXAM 

PERSON t OF ANNUAL PERSON ♦ OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1919 
23 



19 

1 



5 

22 



120 
3 



35-61 COMBINED 
• OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



65-91 COMBINED 
t OF AGE- 

EVENTS- CRUDE ADJUSTea- 



65 
5 



1 
19 



1 
13 



UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



9 
1951 




20 




123 





sz 




70 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VAIUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


35-11 
15-51 
55-61 
65-71 
75-81 
85-91 




1 .957 
1 .381 
1.511 


0.608 
0.605 
1.018 


0.1101 
0.022 
0.119 


0.218 
0.180 
0. 161 


0.068 
0.079 
0.113 


35-61 
65-91 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


2.090 
1.583 


0.521 
0.173 


0.001 

o.aoi 


0.211 
. 199 


0.053 
0.059 


35-61 
65-91 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


1.977 
1.601 


0.526 
0.173 


. 001 

ti.ooi 


0.200 
0.201 


0.053 
0.059 


35-61 
65-91 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE' 


1 .510 
1 .103 


0.511 
0.189 


0.005 
0.001 


0. 1 56 
0. 176 


0.055 
0.061 



111 - 



RISK 
FACTOR 



Na 
YES 



TABLE 5-9 DATE=01MAR8« 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
BY AGE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAM; FRAMINGHAM STUDY 30-YEAR FOLLOWUP 

SEX: MALE 

EVENTi RECOGNIZED MYOCARDIAL INFARCTION 

RISK FACTOR: GLUCOSE INTOLERANCE 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 

JS-'i'. AT EXAM "i5-54 AT EXAM 55-6', AT EXAM 65-7^ AT EXAM 

PERSON I OF ANNUAL PERSON • OF ANNUAL PERSON I OF ANNUAL PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



"4535 
137 



18 




7221 
503 



57 
9 



71'i5 
90« 



91 
12 



3228 
685 



■43 
1 7 



7 
12 



( 



UNKNOMN 
TOTAL 



■ 




13 




772'i 




66 




S0<<9 




103 




3913 




60 



RISK 
FACTOR 



HO 
YES 



UNKNOMN 
TOTAL 



73-8<i AT EXAM 
PERSON i OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



802 
215 




1017 



19 

1 




20 



12 

2 



85-9<i AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

27 

12 




39 



35-6<i COMBINED 
• OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



164 
21 




187 



45-9<i COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



4 


62 

19 


8 
10 


8 

1 1 


5 



81 


8 


3 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VAIUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


SS-'i'i 




- 


_ 


_ 


_ 




:*5-5'i 
55-6 <* 
65-7<i 
75-84 
85-9<i 




0.828 

0.042 

0.634 

-1 .647 


0.362 
0.309 
0.290 
1.029 


0.022 
0.392 
0. 029 
0.109 


0.204 

0.013 

0.241 

-0:473 


0.089 
0.098 
0.110 
0.420 


:5-6<. 
65-9<4 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.432 
0.316 


0.233 
0.265 


0.064 
0.233 


0.115 
0.122 


0.042 
0.103 


35-64 
65-94 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.234 
0.312 


0.235 
0.264 


0.315 
0.240 


0.063 
0.121 


0.042 
0. 103 


35-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0,229 
0.245 


0.243 
0.248 


0.544 
0.323 


0.041 
0.102 


0.044 
0.104 



SEX: FEMALE 

EVENT: RECOGNIZED MYOCARDIAL INFARCTION 

RISK FACTOR: GLUCOSE INTOLERANCE 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 
FACTOR 



NO 
YES 



35-44 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

5522 
9« 



45-54 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUA!, 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



9582 
S71 



10 
3 



55-44 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



10503 

toio 



27 
10 



45-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



5398 
850 



34 
13 



UNKNOMN 
TOTAL 




5414 




9959 




13 




11513 




37 




4248 




47 



RISK 
FACTOR 



NO 
YES 



UNKNOMN 
TOTAL 



AGE AT 
EXAM 

35-44 
45-54 
55-44 
45-74 
75-84 
85-94 

35-44 
45-94 

55-64 
45-94 

35-44 
45-94 



75-84 AT EXAM 85-94 AT EXAM 

PERSON I OF ANNUAL PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1581 
570 




1951 



15 
5 




20 



COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 



2.055 
1 .356 
0.896 
Q.358 



UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 



BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 



MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 



1 .364 
0.902 



1 .542 
0.841 



1 .374 
0.319 



100 
23 


38 
14 



123 



52 


LOGISTIC 


REGRESSIONS 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUe 


o.««a 

0.S7Z 
0.32S 
a. 520 


0.002 
0.001 
0.006 
0.491 


0.J14 
0.263 


0.001 
0.001 


0.319 
0.264 


0.001 
0.001 


0.329 
0.26S 


0.001 
0.002 



35-44 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



65-94 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 



0.389 
0.384 
0.307 
0. 140 



0.423 
0.522 



0.350 
0.107 



0.312 
0.292 



49 
21 



70 



STD 
SE 



0.125 
0.105 
0.113 
0.204 



0.071 
0.094 



0.07Z 
0.094 



0.075 
0.094 



c. 



- 112 - 



TABLE 5-10 DATE=10DECS5 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
BY AGE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAMi FRAMINGHAM STUDY JO-YEAR FOLLOWUP 

SEX: MALE 

EVENT: RECOGNIZED MYOCARDIAL INFARCTION 

RISK FACTOR: METROPOLITAN RELATIVE WEIGHT (PERCENT) 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 
FACTOR 

51-10'< 
1 05-1 U 
1 1 S-\2<i 
1 25-1 34 
135-272 

UHKNOIIN 
TOTAL 



j5-<i<i AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 

EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



723 
965 
1 122 
915 
7 47 


4472 




5 
6 
5 
2 


18 



PERSON 
EXAMS 

1 131 
1540 
2037 
1645 
1 370 

1 
7724 



45-54 AT EXAM 



t OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 



6 

14 
19 
15 
12 


66 



PERSON 
EXAMS 

1155 
1655 
2175 
1674 
1389 



55-64 AT EXAM 



I OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 



14 
19 
26 
22 
22 


103 



65-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON < OF ANNUAL 

EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



686 
851 
1069 
766 
541 


3913 



4 
12 
21 
1 1 
12 


60 



3 

7 
1 

7 
1 1 



RISK 
FACTOR 



75-84 AT EXAM 85-94 AT EXAM 

PERSON » OF ANNUAL PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



35-64 COMBINED 
t OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



65-94 COMBINED 
t OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



54-104 
105-1 14 
II5-I24 
(25-134 
135-272 


224 
252 
296 
155 
90 


4 9 
3 6 

6 10 

7 23 




IS 

9 

1Z 







20 
38 
51 
42 
3< 




3 

5 
5 
5 

5 


3 
16 
27 
18 
12 


4 

7 
10 
1 
10 


4 

7 

10 

1 

9 


UNKNOMN 
TOTAL 



1017 



20 10 



39 


lOQISTIC 



187 

REGRESSIONS 



5 




5 



31 


3 


3 


AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 




STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 




STD 
SE 




35-44 
45-54 

55-64 
65-74 
75-34 




0.003 
0.004 
0.004 
0.015 
0.002 




0.014 
0.008 
0.006 
0.008 
0.01S 


0.823 
0.577 
0.493 
0.062 
0.877 




0.052 
0.068 
0.067 
0.232 
0.035 




0.234 
0.122 
.098 
0. 125 
0.224 




85-94 






















35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.0O4 
0.011 




0.004 
0.007 


0.329 
0.116 




0.071 
0.171 




0.072 
0. 108 


■ 


35-64 
65-94 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.004 

o.on 




0.005 
0.007 


0.347 
0.106 




0.068 
0.176 




0.073 
0.109 




35-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


O.OOI 

a.oos 




0.005 
0.007 


0.499 
0.523 




0.051 
0.073 




0.076 
0.115 


j 



SEX: FEMALE 

EVENT: RECOGNIZED MYOCARDIAL INFARCTION 

RISK FACTOR: METROPOLITAN RELATIVE WEIGHT (PERCENT) 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



35-44 AT EXAM 
RISK PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
FACTOR EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



45-54 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



55-64 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



65-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON » OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



54-104 
105-1 14 
t 1 5-124 
125-134 
1 35-272 

UIIXNOHH 
TOTAL 



1694 

1430 

1058 

566 

360 

8 
5616 



2095 
2331 
2107 
1372 
2054 


2 
1 
3 

7 




1 

2 


2045 
2409 
2479 
1743 
2837 


6 

7 
7 
8 
9 


1 
1 
1 
2 
2 


1216 
1 145 
1395 
982 
1510 


10 
9 

5 

7 

16 


4 

4 

2 
4 
5 



9959 



13 


1 



11513 



37 


2 



6248 



47 


4 



RISK 
FACTOR 

54-104 
105-1 14 
1 15-124 
125-1 34 
135-272 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



AGE AT 
EXAM 

35-44 

45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-34 
35-94 

35-64 
65-94 

35-64 
65-94 

35-64 
65-94 



75-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



517 
37 5 
399 
266 
394 


1951 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



4 4 

1 1 

11 14 

1 2 

3 4 



20 5 



COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 



55-64 COMBINED 
• OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



0.021 
0.004 
0.008 
0.007 



UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 



BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 



nULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 



012 
007 



009 
008 



004 
005 



41 
28 
21 
16 
17 


9 
8 

10 

s 

17 



12S 




sz 


LOGISTIC 


REGRESSIONS 


SE 

COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


0.009 
0.007 
0.006 
0.010 


0.019 
0.615 
0.175 
0.516 


0.005 
0.005 


0.027 
0.200 


0.006 
0.005 


0. 102 
0.135 


0.006 
0.005 


0.504 
0.377 



65-94 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS -CRUDE ADJUSTED 



STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 



0.441 
0.079 
0.179 
0.159 



0.254 
0.143 



0.196 
0.167 



0.087 
0.101 



15 
10 
IS 
8 
19 


70 



STD 

SE 



0. 188 
0.157 
0.132 
0.213 



I 15 
1 I 1 



120 
1 1 1 



,130 
.1 14 



113 - 



RISK 
FACTOR 

S-'i'i 

50-5". 
55-59 
60-35 

UNKNOI'lll 
TOTAL 



TABLE 5-H DATE = 1(10EC85 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISX AT EXAM 
BY AGE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAM. FRAMINGHAM STUDY JO-YEAR FOLLOWUP 

SEX: MALE 

EVENT' RECOGNIZED MYOCARDIAL INFARCTION 

RISK FACTOR: VITAL CAPACITY - HEIGHT INDEX (ML/INCH) 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



35-4<4 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



269 

"til 

747 

1022 

2010 

13 
1.472 



2 

I 



<t 

11 


IS 



15-54 AT EXAM 55-64 AT EXAM 

PERSON • OF ANNUAL PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1062 
1 125 
1653 
1739 
2135 

5 
7724 



12 
12 
1 5 

13 
14 


66 



2045 
1430 
1835 
1416 
1255 

18 
8049 



35 
15 
18 
21 
14 


103 



65-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 

EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1752 


27 


S 


749 


13 


12 


712 


7 


5 


442 


3 


J 


246 


4 


3 


12 


1 


42 


3913 


60 


3 



( 



RISK 

FACTOR 

8-44 
45-49 
50-54 
55-59 
60-85 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



75-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



649 


15 


12 


172 


2 


6 


97 


1 


5 


65 


2 


15 


26 








3 








1017 


20 


10 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

24 
6 
7 
2 



39 



33-64 COMBINED 
t OF AOE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



49 
28 
33 
38 
39 


187 



65-94 COMBINED 
t OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



43 

20 

8 

5 

4 



9 

1 1 

5 

5 

7 

25 

3 



9 
11 
5 
6 
6 

33 
3 



AGE AT 
EXAM 

33-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-34 
85-94 

35-64 
65-94 

35-64 
65-94 



lirllVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 



DIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 



COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 



35-64 nULTIVARIATE 
65-94 MULTIVARIATE 



003 
020 



-0.015 
-0.007 
-0.038 



-0.024 
-0.016 



-0.011 
-0.015 



-0.004 
-0.015 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 
P-VALUE 



SE 
COEFFICIENT 

0.027 
0.013 
0.010 
0.014 
0.024 



,007 
,012 



008 
012 



O.OOS 
0.012 



0.7 58 
0.141 
0.157 
0.633 
0.116 



0.001 
0. 183 



0.tS4 
O.ZOi 



0.640 
0.227 



STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 

0,074 
-0,173 
-0, 133 
-0.062 
-0.357 



-0.23S 
-0.149 



-0.109 
-0.146 



-0.037 
-0.143 



STD 
SE 

0.238 
0.121 
0.097 
0.130 
0.227 



071 
112 



076 
115 



080 
118 



SEX: FEMALE • 

EVENT: RECOGNIZED MYOCARDIAL INFARCTION 

RISK FACTOR: VITAL CAPACITY - HEIGHT INDEX (ML/INCH) 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 

FACTOR 

4-29 
30-34 
35-39 
40-44 
45-92 

UNKHOUH 
TOTAL 



35-44 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

122 

289 

769 
14Z7 
298S 

21 
5616 



45-54 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 

EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



534 
1217 
2077 
2804 
3310 


1 
1 
2 
6 
3 


1 


t 



17 
9959 



13 




1 



55-64 AT EXAM 65-74 AT EXAM 

PERSON I OF ANNUAL PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1461 
2418 
3048 
2706 
1359 

21 
1 1513 



12 
2 




37 



1747 


19 


5 


1715 


14 


4 


1529 


6 


2 


854 


5 


3 


397 


3 


4 


6 








6248 


47 


4 



RISK 
FACTOR 

4-29 
30-34 
35-39 
40-44 
45-92 

UNKNOMN 
TOTAL 



AGE AT 
EXAM 

35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-54 
85-94 

35-64 
65-94 

J5-64 
65-94 

35-64 
65-94 



75-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



930 


13 


7 


569 


6 


5 


314 


1 


2 


111 








25 








2 








1951 


20 


5 



UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 



Or/ARIATE 
BIVARIATE 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 



-0.017 

-0.024 
-0.030 
-0.059 



045 
041 



nUlTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 



-0.017 
-0.036 



0,012 
-0.0S1 



80 

29 

13 

1 




8 

9 
11 
18 

6 



123 



52 


LOGISTIC 


REGRESSIONS 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


0.037 
0.022 
0,019 
0.030 


0.648 
0.259 
0.127 
0.050 


0.017 
0.016 


0,007 
0.003 


0.019 
0.016 


0,364 
0.027 


0.020 
0.017 


0,566 
0.074 



35-64 COMBINED 
t OF AGE- 
EVENTS CRUOe ADJUSTED 

2 1 • 

1 1 
1 1 
I 1 




65-94 COMBINED 
« OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 



-0.125 
-0. 183 
-0.219 
-0.416 



-0.361 
-0.308 



-0.134 
-0.270 



0.092 
-0.231 



34 

21 

7 

5 

5 

"a 

70 



STD 
SE 



0.274 
0.162 

0.144 
0.212 



0.134 
0.117 



148 
122 



160 
129 



/ 



- 114 - 



TABLE 5-12 DATE=10DEC85 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
BY AGE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAM' FRAMINGHAM STUDY 30-YEAR FOLLOWUP 

SEX; MALE 

EVENT; RECOGNIZED MYOCARDIAL INFARCTION 

RISK FACTOR; HEART RATE (PER MINUTE) 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 
FACTOR 

30-67 
63-75 
76-33 
8'i-91 
92-220 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



SS-I"} AT EXAM "iS-SI AT EXAM 55-61 AT EXAM 65-7<i AT EXAM 

PERSON I OF ANNUAL PERSON I OF ANNUAL PERSON S OF ANNUAL PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



I25<< 


<i 


2 


1<;92 


3 


1 


722 


5 


3 


579 


<i 


3 


395 


2 


3 








. 


4<i72 


18 


2 



19«9 
2190 
1394 
1097 
79'i 


772<i 



16 
16 
12 
12 
10 


66 



2309 
2190 
1 371 
1061 
312 


8019 



23 
36 
19 
11 
1 1 


103 



1183 


18 


3 


1 159 


1 


1 


621 


18 


11 


187 


5 


5 


16 


9 


10 








. 


3913 


60 


8 



RISK 

FACTOR 

30-67 
68-75 
76-83 
81-91 
92-220 

UNKNOHN 
TOTAL 



75-81 AT EXAM 
PERSON » OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



301 


5 


8 


296 


7 


12 


192 


1 


10 


123 


2 


8 


105 


2 


10 








_ 


017 


20 


10 



85-91 AT E3(AM 
PERSON » OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

1 1 
12 
10 

5 

1 


39 



35-61 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



65-91 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



13 


1 


1 


23 


8 


8 


55 


1 


1 


18 


6 


6 


36 


5 


5 


22 


13 


13 


30 


5 


5 


7 


6 


6 


23 


6 


6 


11 


1 


1 





„ 







_ 




87 


5 


5 


81 


3 


a 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 




COEFFICIENT 


SE 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 


STD 


EXAM 




OF RISK FACTOR 


COEFFICIENT 




COEFFICIENT 


SE 


35-11 




0.026 


0.017 


0.122 


0.326 


0.21 1 


15-51 




0.013 


0.009 


0.175 


0.161 


0.118 


55-61 




0.005 


0.008 


0.519 


0.058 


0.097 


65-71 




0.008 


0.009 


0.366 


0.113 


0.125 


75-81 




0.007 


0.016 


0.683 


0.089 


0.219 


85-91 














35-61 


UNIVARIATE 


0.010 


0.006 


0.0S1 


0.121 


0.071 


65-91 


UNIVARIATE 


0.008 


0.008 


0.326 


0.106 


0.108 


35-61 


8IVARIATE 


0.010 


0.006 


0.082 


0.122 


0.070 


65-91 


BIVARIATE 


0.008 


0.008 


0.326 


0.106 


0.108 


35-61 


MULTIVARIATE 


0.000 


0.006 


0.938 


0.006 


0.076 


65-91 


MULTIVARIATE 


0.007 


0.008 


0.395 


O.J)93 


0.110 



SEX: FEMALE 

EVENT; RECOGNIZED MYOCARDIAL INFARCTION 

RISK FACTOR! HEART RATE (PER MINUTE) 

PERSONS AT RISKi PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 

FACTOR 

30-67 
68-75 
76-83 
81-91 
92-220 

UNKMOMN 
TOTAL 



35-11 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

1092 
1803 
1051 

939 

731 


5616 



15-51 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



55-61 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



65-71 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1897 
3211 
1911 
1604 
1303 


3 

1 

2 
1 

3 


1 
1 

1 


1 


2305 
3168 
2351 
1730 
1609 


1 
1 1 
9 
8 
8 



2 
2 
2 
2 


1103 
1663 
1353 
1089 
1030 • 


7 
12 

3 
13 

7 


3 
1 
3 
6 
3 



9959 



13 


1 



11513 



37 


2 



6218 



17 


1 



RISK 
FACTOR 

30-67 
68-75 
76-83 
81-91 
92-220 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



7 5-81 AT EXAM 
PERSON « OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



360 
162 
123 
330 
371 


1951 



1 
3 
7 
3 
3 


20 



85-91 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

26 
32 
21 
23 
IS 


123 



35-64 COMIINED 
I OF - AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTZO 



1 
15 
12 
10 
11 


52 



65-91 COMBINED - 

t OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



12 


- 1 


15- 


3 


15 • 


1 


17 


6 


11 


1 





- 


70 


1 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


35-11 
15-51 
55-61 
65-71 
75-31 
85-91 




-0.00<i 
0.023 
0.009 

-0.011 


0.023 
0.011 
0.01 1 
0.017 


0.867 
0.030 
0.119 
0.511 


-0.017 
0.302 
0.113 

-0.156 


0.282 
0.139 
0.110 
0.237 


35-61 
65-91 


IIIIIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.018 
O.0O3 


0.010 
0.009 


0.059 
0.739 


0.232 
0.039 


0.123 
0.118 


35-61 
65-91 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.018 
0. 003 


0.010 
0.009 


0.067 
0.763 


0.221 
0.035 


0.122 
0.113 


35-61 
65-91 


IIIIITIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.003 
-0.003 


0.011 
0.009 


0.783 
0.709 


0.038 
-0.015 


0. 138 
0.119 



115 - 



RISK 
FACTOR 

NONE 

1-10 
11-20 
21-40 
4 1-90 

UNICNQHN 
TOTAL 



r.-xBLiL 5-13 DATE=07AUG85 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
Br AGE ANB LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAM' FRAMIHGHAM STUDY iO-TEAR FOLLOHUP 

SEX I MALE 

EVENT' RECOGNIZED MYOCARDIAL INFARCTION 

RISK FACTOR: CIGARETTES SMOKED (NUMBER PER DAT) 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



i5-44 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1383 


3 


1 


433 


3 


3 


1485 


9 


3 


987 


3 


2 


158 








26 








4472 


18 


2 



45-54 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



3068 

7 14 

2051 

1402 

252 

35 
7724 



10 

4 

28 

20 



1 
44 



2 

4 
7 
4 
2 

14 
4 



55-44 AT ^XAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



4295 


44 


5 


749 


5 


3 


1482 


30 


9 


1 1 19 


22 


10 


142 


2 


4 


22 








8049 


103 


4 



45-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON i OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



26 1 1 

374 

526 

369 

27 

6 
3913 



40 



( 



75-84 AT EXAM 
RISK PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
FACTOR EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSOf* I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



35-44 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



45-94 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



NONE 

1-10 
I 1-20 
21-40 
41-90 

UNKNOUN 
TOTAL 



797 


17 


1 1 


92 


2 


1 1 


77 








44 


1 


1 1 


5 














- 


1017 


20 


10 



27 
4 
5 




39 



57 


3 


3 


42 


9 


9 


14 


4 


3 


4 


6 


6 


47 


4 


7 


9 


7 


7 


45 


4 


7 


3 


4 


5 


3 


5 


3 











1 


4 


5 


1 


S3 


45 


87 


5 


4 


81 


8 


8 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFF.ICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


35-44 
45-54 
55-44 
45-74 
75-84 
85-94 




-0.003 

0.021 

0.020 

-0.019 

-0.024 


0.017 
0.007 
0.004 
0.0 14 
0.034 


0.857 
0.004 
0,001 
0.159 
0.444 


-0.043 

0.310 

0.271 
-0.225 
-0.223 ' 


0.239 
0. 112 
0.083 
0.160 
0.305 


55-44 
45-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.014 
-0.022 


0.005 
0.013 


0.002 
0.088 


0.211 
-0.242 


O.MS 
0.142 


35-44 
45-94 


8IVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0,020 
-0.022 


0.005 
0.013 


0.001 
0.092 


0.284 
-0.241 


a.a«7 

0.143 


35-64 
45-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.02Z 
-0.020 


0.005 
0.013 


0.001 
0. 1 19 


0.317 
-0.223 


0.067 
0. 143 



SEX: FEMALE 

EVENT: RECOGNIZED MYOCARDIAL INFARCTION 

RISK FACTOR: CIGARETTES SMOKED (NUMBER PER DAY) 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



clrrn„ PERSON • OF ANNUAL 

FACTOR EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



NONE 2582 

1-10 1314 

11-20 1371 

21-40 298 

4 1-90 22 

UNKtIOHN 29 

TOTAL 54 14 



45-54 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 

EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



55-44 AT EXAM 65-74 AT EXAM 

PERSON r OF ANNUAL PERSON « OF ANNUAL 

EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



EXAMS 



5528 


7 


1 


7595 


15 


1 


4863 


33 


3 


1726 


a 





1566 


7 


2 


626 


6 


5 


2009 


5 


1 


1696 


10 


3 


548 


3 


7 


622 


3 


2 


602 


4 


3 


172 








37 








16 


1 


31 


a 







37 








53 








19 . 








9959 


13 


1 


11513 


37 


2 


6248 


47 


4 



75-84 AT EXAM 85-94 AT EXAM 

RISK PERSON I OF ANNUAL PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
FACTOR EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



35-44 COMBINED 
t OF ACE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



45-94 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



NONE 

1-10 
11-20 
21-40 
41-90 

UIIKNOl'lll 
TOTAL 



AGE AT 
EXAM 

35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
45-74 
75-84 
85-94 

35-44 
65-94 

35-64 
65-94 

35-64 
65-94 



1710 

137 

84 

14 



4 
1951 



15 
3 
2 





20 



12 





COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 



0.030 
0.045 
0.012 
0.034 



UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 



BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 



MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 



04 1 
012 



046 
017 



0.053 
0.025 



117 

4 
2 




22 
7 

14 
S 

1 



123 



52 


LOGISTIC 


REGRESSIONS 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


0.022 
0.012 
0.0 17 
0.031 


0. 176 
0.001 
0.50 1 
0.239 


0.0 11 
0.015 


.00 1 
0.405 


0.010 
0.0 IS 


0.001 
0.256 


0.0 10 
0.015 


0.001 
0.098 



2 
2 
13 


1 



STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 



51 

9 • 
10 

0- 




70 



0.506 
0. 424 
0.083 
0. 183 



0.404 
0.088 



459 
121 



522 

176 



STD 
SE 



0.226 
0.117 
0. 131 
0. 155 



0. 105 
0. 104 



0. 103 
0. 107 



0. 104 
0. 107 



c 



- 116 - 



TABLE 5-l<i DATE=10DEC85 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
BY AGE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAM- FRAMINGHAM STUDY 30-YEAR FOLLOWUP 

SEX: MALE 

EVENT: RECOGNIZED MYOCARDIAL INFARCTION 

RISK FACTOR: ALBUMIN IN URINE, DEFINITE 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY yEART DISEASE 



RISK 
FACTOR 


35- 
PER30H 
EXAMS 


•il AT EXAM 

t OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


<i5- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


•5* AT EXAM 

I OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


55- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


•6'j 


AT EXAM 
S OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


65-7« 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


1 AT EXAM 
« OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


NO 
YES 


'5 366 

70 


18 



2 



7599 
99 


6* 
2 


10 


7833 
18<i 




99 

3 


6 
3 


3792 
1 15 


58 

2 


8 
9 


UNKNQHN 
TOTAL 


36 
•»<i72 



18 



2 


26 
772* 



66 





27 
80*9 




1 
103 


19 

6 


6 
3913 



60 



S 


RISK 
FACTOR 


75- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


•54 AT EXAM 

• OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


SS- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


■9* AT EXAM 

• OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


35- 
♦ OF 

EVENTS 


-6* 


COMBINED 65- 
AGE- t OF 
CRUDE ADJUSTED EVENTS 


■9* COMBINED 

AGE- 
CRUDE ADJUSTED 


NO 
YES 


989 
25 


19 
1 


10 
20 


32 

7 






181 

S 




5 

7 


5 
7 


78 

3 


8 
10 


8 
11 


UUKNOMN 
TOTAL 


J 
1017 



20 



10 



39 






1 
187 




6 

5 


7 
5 



31 



8 




s 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


35-** 

*5-5* 
55-6* 
65-7* 
75-3* 
85-9* 




Q.SS7 
0.2S9 
0.131 
0.755 


0.725 
0.591 
0.726 
1 .0*7 


0.221 
0.661 
0.357 
0.*71 


0.100 
0.039 
0.0Z2 
0.117 


0.082 
0.088 
0.123 
0.162 


35-6* 
65-9* 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.**3 
0.235 


0.*57 
0.59* 


0.332 
0.693 


0.058 
0.040 


0.060 
0.101 


35-6* 
65-9* 


BIVARIATE 
flIVARIATE 


0.331 
0.232 


0.*57 
0.59* 


0.*69 
0.696 


0.0*3 
. 039 


0.060 
0. 101 


35-6* 
65-9* 


IIULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


-0.1*0 •• 
-0.071 


0.515 
0.605 


0.786 
0.907 


-0.018 
-0.012 


0.063 
0.1 03 



SEX: FEMALE 

EVENT: RECOGNIZED MYOCARDIAL INFARCTION 

RISK FACTOR: ALBUMIN IN URINE, DEFINITE 

PERSONS AT risk: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



35-** AT EXAM *5-5* AT EXAM 

RISK PERSON « OF ANNUAL PERSON < OF ANNUAL 
FACTOR EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



55-6* AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



65-7* AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



NO 
YES 



UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



RISK 
FACTOR 



NO 
YES 



UNKNOMN 
TOTAL 



5353 
225 



38 
5616 



75-8'^ AT EXAM 
PERSON » OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



190* 
38 



9 
1951 



20 





20 



96 56 
278 



25 

9959 



13 






13 



85-9* AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

120 
3 




123 



11263 
225 


36 

1 


2 
2 


6118 
120 


** 
3 


* 
1 3 


25 
11513 



37 



2 


10 
62*8 



*7 



* 


35- 
1 OF 
EVENTS 


•6* COMBINED 

AGE- 
CRUDE _ ADJUSTED 


65- 
• OF 
EVENTS 


-9* COMBINED 

AGE- 
- CRUDE ADJUSTED 


51 
t 


1 
1 


i 
1 


66 

* 


* 
12 


* 
12 



S2 



1 




1 



70 



* 



* 



lOQISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 

COEFFICIENT 


P-VAIUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


35-** 

*5-5* 
55-6* 
65-7* 
75-3* 
85-9* 




0.331 
1 .26* 


1.016 
0.60* 


0.7*5 
0.036 


a.o«i 

0.17* 


0.1*1 
0.083 


35-6* 
65-9* 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


-0.3*6 
1 . 137 


1 .010 
0.521 


0.732 
0.029 


-0.056 
0.157 


0. 16* 
0.072 


35-6* 
65-9* 


BIVARIATE 
SIVARIATE 


• -0. 1 37 
1.13* 


1 .011 
0.522 


0.892 
0.030 . 


-0.022 
0.156 


0.16* 
0.072 


35-6* 
65-9* 


nUlTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


-1 .527 
0.7*5 


1.377 
0.5*3 


0.268 
0.170 


-0.2*7 
0.103 


0.223 

0.075 



- 117 - 



TABLE 5-15 DATE=10DECa5 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
BY AGE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAMi FRAMINGHAM STUDY 30-YEAR FOLLOWUP 

SEX: MALE 

EVENT: RECOGNIZED MYOCARDIAL INFARCTION 

RISK FACTOR: HEART ENLARGEMENT 8Y X-RAY 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 
FACTOR 

110 

MILO 

OEFINITE 

UNKNOWri 
TOTAL 



3S-<i'i AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



<<063 
185 
219 

5 
4172 



15 
2 
1 


18 



■iS-S^ AT EXAM 
PERSON J OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



6383 
650 
687 

772'< 



55 
5 
6 


66 



55-64 AT EXAM 
PERSON < OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



5967 

962 

1119 



72 
14 
17 


103 



65-7<i AT EXAM 
PERSON i OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



2534 
578 
751 


3913 



38 7 

6 5 

16 11 



60 8 



RISK 
FACTOR 

NO 

MUD 

DEFINITE 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



75-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON » OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



589 
178 
250 


1017 



7 
4 
9 


20 



4 
11 
18 



85-94 AT EXAM 55-64 COMBINED 

PERSON t OF ANNUAL • OF AGE- 

EXAMS EVENTS RATE EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



29 
5 
5 


39 



142 
21 
24 


187 



65-94 COMBINED 
t OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



46 
10 
25 


81 



7 

7 

12 



7 

6 

12 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


35-44 
45-54 

55-64 
65-74 
75-34 
35-94 




0.301 
-0.013 
0.126 
0.154 
0.S6S 


0.404 
0.204 
0.130 
0.155 
0.253 


0.456 
0.951 
0.332 
0.319 
0.025 


0.141 
-0.008 . 
0.090 
0.123 
0.477 


0.189 
Q.I25 
0.093 
0.123 
0.214 


35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.179 
0.261 


0.104 
0.128 


0.085 
0.042 


0.114 
0.211 


0.066 
0.104 


35-64 
65-94 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.078 
0.260 


0.106 
0. 129 


0.461 
0.043 


O.OSO 
O.ZIO 


0.067 
0.104 


35-64 
65-94 


nUlTIVARI&TE 
MULTIVARIATE 


O.OSO 
0.128 


0.113 
0.137 


0.659 
0.350 


0.032 
0.103 


0.072 
0.111 



SEX: FEMALE 

EVENT: RECOGNIZED MYOCARDIAL INFARCTION 

RISK FACTOR: HEART ENLARGEMENT BY X-RAY 

PERSONS AT RISK! PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



35-44 AT EXAM 
RISK PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
FACTOR EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



45-54 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



55-64 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



65-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



NO 

MILD 

DEFINITE 

UIIKNOHN 
TOTAL 



5164 
199 
245 

8 
5616 



8017 
943 
993 


8 

2 
5 




1 
2 


7 522 
1769 
2218 


19 

8 

10 


1 

2 
2 


3191 

1 150 
1907 


17 

7 

23 


3 
3 
6 


6 
9959 



13 




1 


4 
11513 


a 

37 



2 



6243 



47 


4 



RISK 
FACTOR 

NO 

MILD 

DEFINITE 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



AGE AT 
EXAM 

35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 



75-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



702 
373 
876 


1951 



35-64 
65-94 



35-64 
65-94 



35-64 
65-94 



5 

7 
8 


20 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



35-64 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 



0.570 
0.309 
0.419 
0.077 



UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 



BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 



tUILTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 



0.572 
0.305 



0.378 
0.271 



0.214 
0.202 



32 
30 
SI 


28 
10 
14 



123 



52 


LOGISTIC 


REGRESSIONS 


SE 

COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


0.327 
0.188 
0.164 
0.253 


0.081 
0.100 
0.011 
0.760 


0.157 
0.134 


0.001 
0.023 


0.162 
0. 137 


0.020 
0.047 


0.179 
0. 143 


0.231 
0.158 



65-94 COMBINED 
t OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 



0.364 
0.246 
0.369 
0.069 



399 
272 



264 
242 



149 
180 



23 


3 


16 


5 


31 


5 





« 


70 - 


4 



STD 
SE 



0.209 
0.150 
0. 144 
0.227 



109 
120 



113 
122 



,125 
127 



<.. 



118 



TABLE 5-1.6 



DATE=07AUG85 



AVERAGE 
BY AGE 



AUUU/.I iwrrDFNCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
iSS LEVEL SfI?" factor at EXAM: FRAMINGHAM STUDY JO-YEAR FOLLOWUP 



Ivent"*recognized myocardial_infarction^ 



RISK factor" LEFT VENTRICULAR HYPERTROPHY BY ELECTROCARDIOGRAM 
PERSONS AT risk: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 
FACTOR 

NO 

BORDER 

DEFINITE 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



Si-'i'i AT EXAM <i5-5'4 AT EXAM 

PERSOII I OF ANNUAL PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS R^TE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



4366 
73 
2S 


<i*72 



18 








7497 

132 

95 


772'i 



63 

3 



66 



55-6'* AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



7693 
210 
146 


3049 




103 



6 
2 



65-74 AT EXAM 

PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



3703 
90 
120 


3913 



52 





60 



25 



RISK 
FACTOR 

NO 

BORDER 

DEFINITE 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



PERSON 
EXAMS 

949 

37 
51 


1017 



75-84 AT EXAM 



t OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 



20 





20 



PERSON 
EXAMS 

34 
2 


39 



85-94 AT EXAM 



I OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 



I OF 
EVENTS 

179 
4 
4 


l«7 



35-64 COMBINED 



CRUDE 

5 

5 
7 



AGE- 
ADJUSTED 



< OF 
EVENTS 

7 3' 
2 
6 


3 I 



65-94 COMBINED 



CRUDE 



AGE- 
ADJUSTED 

8 

9 
20 



AGE AT 
EXAM 

35-44 

45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 

35-64 
65-94 

35-64 
65-94 



UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 



BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 



COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 



0.056 
0.223 
0.639 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 
P-VALUE 



35-64 MULTIVARIATE 
65-94 MULTIVARIATE 



0.201 
0.427 



0. I IS 
0.426 



-0.011 
0. 152 



SE 
COEFFICIENT 







465 
27 1 
216 






234 

214 






2J5 
214 


a 




246 
231 



0.904 
. 409 
0.003 



0.389 
0.046 



0.616 
0.047 



0.964 
0.510 



STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 







014 
069 
238 






054 
161 






031 
16 1 


-0 



003 

057 



STD 
SE 



0.118 
0. 083 
0.080 



0.06 3 
0.08 1 



0.063 
0.081 



0.066 
0.037 



SEX I FEMALE 

EVENT: RECOGNIZED MYOCARDIAL INFARCTION 

RISK FACTOR: LEFT VENTRICULAR HYPERTROPHY BY ELECTROCARDIOGRAM 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



35-44 AT EXAM 



45-54 AT EXAM 



55-64 AT EXAM 



65-74 AT EXAM 



RISK 

FACTOR 


PERSON 
EXAMS 


1 OF 

EVENTS 


ANNUAL 
RATE 


PERSON 
EXAMS 


1 OF 
EVENTS 


ANNUAL 
RATE 


PERSON 
EXAMS 


i OF 
EVENTS 


ANNUAL 
RATE 


PERSON 
EXAMS 


1 OF 
EVENTS 


ANNUAL 
RATE 


NO 

BORDER 

DEFINITE 


5563 
58 
15 






9798 
107 
54 


13 

a 








1 1 137 
226 
150 


55 


2 


2 


7 


5966 
134 
148 


40 

5 
4 


3 
1 1 
14 


UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



56 16 







9959 



13 


1 



11513 



37 


2 



6248 



47 


4 


RISK 
FACTOR 


7 5- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


84 AT EXAM 

1 OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


85- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


94 AT EXAM 

• OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


35- 
1 OF 

EVENTS 


64 COMBINED 

ACE- 
CRUDE ADJUSTED 


65- 
1 OF 
EVENTS 


-94 COMBINED . 
AGE- 
CRUDE ADJUS' 


NO 

BORDER 

DEFINITE 


1833 
49 
69 


20 




5 




t < 1 
6 

6 






«9 



3 


1 

7 


1 



10 


62 

3 - 
5 


4 
8 
1 1 


4 
8 

12 


UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 


a 

1951 



20 


5 



123 






52 


I 


I 



To 


4 


4 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 




o'.554 
0.765 


o'. 398 
0.242 


o". 164 
0.002 


0. 146 
0.255 


o" 105 
0.03 1 


35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


9.360 
0.553 


0.322 
0.220 


0.008 
0.012 


0. 183 
0. 195 


0.068 
0.078 


55-64 
65-94 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


.634 
0.527 


0.327 
0.221 


0.036 
0.017 


0. 145 
0. 136 


0.069 
0.073 


55-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0. 501 
0. 574 


0.553 
0.235 


0.399 
0.112 


. 064 
0. 132 


0.076 
0.033 



119 



TABLE 5-17 DATE=rODEC8S 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
BY AGE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAMi FRAMINGMAM STUDY 30-YEAR FOLLOWUP 

SEX' MALE 

EVENT: RECOGNIZED MYOCARDIAL INFARCTION 

RISK FACTOR: INTRAVENTRICULAR CONDUCTION DEFECT (WITH QRS INTERVAL MORE THAN 0.11 SECOND) 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 
FACTOR 

NO 

INCOMPLETE 

COMPLETE 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



55-<i<< AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



4161 

275 

36 


4<<72 



17 
1 



IS 



"iS-S* AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



7213 

<<46 

65 


772'4 



60 
5 

1 


66 



55-6« AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



7386 
456 
207 


8049 



92 

10 

1 


10J 



6 

1 1 

2 



c 



65-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON » OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



3566 
183 
164 


3913 



55 
3 
2 


60 



75-84 AT EXAM 
RISK PERSON » OF ANNUAL 
FACTOR EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



35-64 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



65-94 COMBINED 
< OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



NO 918 

INCOMPLETE 21 
COMPLETE 78 


18 10 

2 13 


31 
2 
6 




169 
U 

2 


5 
7 

3 


5 

■ 7 

4 


74 

3 
4 


8 
7 
8 


8 
6 

7 


UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 1017 



20 10 



59 





187 


5 


5 



81 


8 


8 










LOGISTIC 


REGRESSIONS 












AGE AT 

EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUe 




STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 




STD 
SE 




35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 




-0.300 
0.306 
0.055 

-0.076 
0.084 




0.952 
0-351 
0.248 
0.310 
0.389 


0.75J 
0.383 
0.823 
0.807 
0.830 




-0.089 
0.090 
0.021 

-0.034 
0.046 




0.282 

0.103 
0.095 
0.138 
0.212 




85-94 






















35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.151 
-0.026 




0.199 
0.243 


0.449 
0.9)6 




0.050 
-0.012 




0.067 
0.114 




35-64 
65-94 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.083 
-0.029 




0.197 
0.243 


0.674 
0.904 




0.028 
-0.014 




0.066 
0.114 




35-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.018 
-0.027 




0.215 
0.247 


0.932 
0.913 




0.006 
-0.013 




0.072 
0.116 





c. 



SEXi FEMALE 

EVENT! RECOGNIZED MYOCARDIAL INFARCTION 

RISK FACTORi INTRAVENTRICULAR CONDUCTION DEFECT (HITH 9RS INTERVAL MORE THAN 0.11 SECOND) 

PERSONS AT RISK' PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 
FACTOR 

NO 

INCOMPLETE 

COMPLETE 

UNKHOKN 
TOTAL 



35-44 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

5529 
75 
12 




5616 



4S-54 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



55-64 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAHS EVENTS RATE 



65-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



9771 

144 

44 


n 





1 





U18J 
187 
143 


35 


2 
3 
5 


6027 
115 
106 


45 

1 

1 


4 
4 
5 



9959 



IS 


1 



11513 


37 


2 



6248 ' 



47 


4 



7 5-84 AT EXAM 
RISK PERSON • OF • ANNUAL 

FACTOR EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



NO 1847 

INCOMPLETE 36 

COMPLETE 68 



UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



AGE AT 
EXAM 

35-44 ■ 

45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 

35-64 
65-94 

55-64 
65-94 

35-64 
65-94 




1951 



20 




20 



8 5-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



35-64 COMBINED 
» OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 



0.428 
0.1 25 



UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 



BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 



tVJLTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 



0.442 
-0.221 



0.280 
-0.252 



0.392 
-0.239 



117 
1 
5 


50 

1 
1 



12J 



52 


LOGISTIC 


REGRESSIONS 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


0.4S5 
0.457 


0.347 
0.785 


0.465 
0.456 


0.342 
0.627 


0.461 
455 


0.543 
0.579 


0.464 
0.460 


0.399 
0.603 



65-94 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS. CRUDE ADJUSTED. 



68 

1 
1 


70 



STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


0.109 
0.036 



-0 


092 
070 



-0 


058 
080 



-0 


082 
076 



STD 
SE 



0.115 
0.132 



097 
145 



096 
144 



097 
146 



c 



- 120 - 



TABLE 5-18 DATE=12DECS5 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
BY AGE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAM' FRAMINGHAM STUDY 30-YEAR FOLLOHUP 

SEX: MALE 

EVENTi RECOGNIZED MYOCARDIAL INFARCTION 

RISK FACTOR: DEFINITE NONSPECIFIC T-WAVE OR ST-SEGMENT ABNORMALITY BY ELECTROCARDIOGRAM 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 
FACTOR 


35- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


ft* AT EXAM 

t OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


45- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


54 AT EXAM 

* OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


55- 

PERSON 
EXAMS 


64 


AT EXAM 
1 OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


65-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 


NO 
YES 


■4362 
110 


14 
4 


2 

IS 


7352 
372 


64 
2 


4 
J 


7462 

587 




95 
8 


6 
7 


3472 
441 


54 
6 


8 
7 


UNKNOWN 

TOTAL 



'i'(72 



18 


2 



7724 



66 


4 



8049 





103 


6 



3913 



60 


8 


RISK 
FACTOR 


75- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


84 AT EXAM 

« OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


85- 

PERSDN 
EXAMS 


94 AT EXAM 

t OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


35- 

1 OF 
EVENTS 


64 


COMBINED 65- 
AGE- » OF 
CRUDE ADJUSTED EVENTS 


94 COMBINED 

AGE- 
CRUDE ADJUSTED 


NO 
YES 


830 
187 


<< 


to 

11 


23 

11 






175 

14 




5 
7 


5 
8 


70 
11 


8 

9 


8 

8 


UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 


a 

1017 


a 

20 


10 



39 







187 




5 


5 



81 


8 


8 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-'VAIUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE ■ 


35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 




2.461 
-0.485 

0.069 
-0.136 

0.106 


0.575 
0.720 
0.371 
0.433 
0.565 


0.001 
0.500 
0.852 
0.754 
0.851 


0.381 
-0.104 

0.018 
-0.043 

0.041 


0.089 

0.154 
0.096 
0.137 
0.219 


35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.377 
0.064 


0.280 
0.327 


0.178 
0.845 


0.084 
0.021 


0.063 
0.110 


35-64 
65-94 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.209 
0.056 


0.281 
0.329 


0.458 
0.864 


0.047 
0.019 


0.063 
0.110 


35-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


-0.146 
-0.039 


0.306 
0.331 


0.633 
0.907 


-0.033 
-0.013 


0.068 
0.111 



SEX' FEMALE 

EVENT: RECOGNIZED MYOCARDIAL INFARCTION 

RISK FACTOR: DEFINITE NONSPECIFIC T-WAVE OR ST-SEGMENT ABNORMALITY BY ELECTROCARDIOGRAM 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 

FACTOR 



NO 
YES 



UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



PERSON 
EXAMS 



5517 
99 




5616 



35-44 AT EXAM 



t OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 



45-54 AT EXAM 55-64 AT EXAM 

PERSON I OF ANNUAL PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



9543 
416 




9959 



11 
2 




13 



XAMS 


EVENTS 


RATE 


10647 
866 


30 

7 


1 
4 


0. 
11513 



37 


2 



6 5-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON » OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



5528 
720 




6248 



36 

11 




47 



RISK 
FACTOR 



NO 
YES 



UNKNOWN 

TOTAL 



AOe AT 
EXAM 

35-44 

45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 

35-64 
65-94 

35-64 
65-94 

55-44 
65-94 



75-84 AT EXAM 85-94 AT EXAM 

PERSON « OF ANNUAL PERSON » OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1632 
519 




1951 



UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 



BIVARIATE ■ 
BIVARIATE 



17 
3 




20 



MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 



COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 



1.432 

i .059 

0.862 

-0.103 

t.365 
0.626 

1 .070 
0.531 

0.672 
0.467 



97 
26 


43 
9 



123 



52 


LOGISTIC 


REGRESSIONS 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


0.770 
0.421 
0.347 
0.629 


0.063 
0.01Z 
0.013 
0.870 


0.368 
0.293 


0.001 
0.035 


0.371 
0.295 


0.004 
0.049 


0.396 
0.296 


0.090 
O.IIS 



35-64 COMBINED 
f OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 

1 1 
3 ^ J 



65-94 COMBINED 
» OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



-?! 




70 



STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 



0.286 

0.279 

0.275 

-O.038 



0.300 
0.209 



0.235 
0. 194 



0.148 
0.156 



STO 

SE 



0.154 
0.111 
0.111 
0.233 



0.081 
0.098 



0.082 
0.098 



0.087 
0.099 



121 



TABLE 6-1 0ATE=12DEC85 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
BY AGE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAM: FRAMINGHAM STUDY 30-YEAR FOLLOWUP 

SEX' MALE 

EVENT I CORONARY INSUFFICIENCY 

RISK FACTOR I SYSTOLIC BLOOD PRESSURE, FIRST EXAMINER (MM HG) 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



c 



RISK 
FACTOR 

7H-I 19 
120-159 
140-159 
160-179 
ISO-iOO 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



35-<44 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1223 
2165 

191 
52 


4472 



<i5-5'4 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1749 

3417 

1732 

567 

239 


1 

s 

6 
3 
1 



1 
2 
3 
2 



7724 



19 


1 



55-64 AT EXAM 
PERSON f OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1440 

3166 

2090 

916 

437 


«049 



2 

4 
! 
4 
4 


22 



6 5-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 

EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



54S 

1341 

1194 

552 

278 


3913 



1 
2 
6 
3 
1 


13 



RISK 
FACTOR 

74-119 
120-139 
140-159 
160-179 
180-300 

UNKNOHN 
TOTAL 



75-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

120 
345 
315 
153 
84 


1017 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

7 
15 
11 

4 

2 


39 



J5-64 COMSINED 
♦ OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED' 



65-94 COMBINED 
t OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



4 








1 


1 


1 


15 


1 


1 


3 


1 


1 


17 


2 


2 


6 


2 


2 


8 


2 


2 


5 


4 


3 


5 


3 


3 


1 


1 


1 





- 







. 




49 


1 


1 


16 


2 


2 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 




0.027 
0.018 
0.019 
0.015 


a. 015 
o.aia 

0.008 
0.010 


0.085 
0.067 
0.016 
0.154 


0.448 
0.350 
0.414 
0.338 


0.260 
0.191 
0.172 
0.237 


35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.020 
0.017 


o.oa« 

0.009 


o.oot 

0.073 


0.404 
0.380 


0.113 
0.212 


35-64 
65-94 


SIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.019 
0.017 


o.oo« 

0.009 


0.001 
0.073 


0.388 
0.380 


0.116 
. 0.211 


35-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.016 
0.016 


O.OOi 
0.010 


0.008 
0.115 


0.331 
0.360 


0.125 
0.229 



.(' 



SEX" FEMALE 

EVENT' CORONARY INSUFFICIENCY 

RISK FACTOR! SYSTOLIC BLOOD PRESSURE. FIRST EXAMINER (MM HG) 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 

FACTOR 

74-119 
120-139 
140-159 
160-179 
180-300 

UNKNOMN 
TOTAL 



35-44 AT EXAM 
PERSON « OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

2493 
2244 

673 

156 
50 


5616 



45-54 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



55-64 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



65-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



2714 

3982 

2053 

768 

442 


2 
1 
2 
1 







1 



1979 
4056 
3025 
1560 
893 


1 
8 

6 
3 
6 



1 
1 
1 
3 


647 
1747 
2013 
1155 

686 


1 
3 
6 
2 
3 


1 
1 
1 

1 
2 



9959 



6 






115)3 



24 


1 



6248 



IS 


1 



RISK 
FACTOR 

74-119 
120-139 
140-159 
160-179 
180-300 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



AGE AT 
EXAM 

35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 

35-64 
65-94 

35-64 
65-94 

35-64 
65-94 



75-84 AT EXAM 85-94 AT EXAM 

PERSON t OF ANNUAL PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

133 
465 
626 
451 
276 


1951 



COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 



35-64 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



65-94 COMBINED 
t OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 





1 



1 


1 

2 
1 


1 

2 
2 




5 


1 



UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 



BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 



MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 



-8.001 
0.017 
0.008 
0.012 



0.020 
0.009 



0.014 
0.009 



0.011 
0.007 



8 

38 
29 
31 
17 


9 
8 

4 
« 



12J 



30 


LOGISTIC 


REGRESSIONS 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


0.018 
0.007 
0.010 
0.016 


0.958 
0.008 
0.413 
0.445 


0.005 
0.008 


0.001 
0.279 


0.006 
0.008 


0.025 
0.294 


0.007 
0.009 


0.117 
0.446 




21 



STANDARDIZED 

COEFFICIENT 



-0.022 
0.425 

0.198 
0.306 



0.469 
0.220 



0.327 
0.214 



0.248 
0.161 



STD 
SE 



0.414 
0.160 
0.242 
0.401 



0.129 
0.203 



0.146 
0.204 



O.ISS 
0.211 



c 



- 122 



TABLE 6-2 DATE"03MAY85 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
BY AGE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAM= FRAMINGHAM STUDY JO-YEAR FOLLOWUP 

SEXi MALE , , 

EVENT: CORONARY INSUFFICIENCY 

RISK FACTORi DIASTOLIC BLOOD PRESSURE, FIRST EXAMINER (MM HG) 
PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 
FACTOR 

20-7<i 

85-94 
95-10'* 
105-160 

UNKNOHN 
TOTAL 



RISK 
FACTOR 

20-7<i 

«S-9<i 

95-10'* 

105-160 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



3S-'i4 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



'iS-S'i AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



55-«<S AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



65-71 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1012 
160'i 
1187 

<i99. 

170 


<i472 



1'i73 
2766 
2062 
1008 
<<I0 


772'i 




5 
8 

"4 

2 



19 



1817 


3 


1 


25';5 


9 


2 


1961 


3 


1 


982 


2 


1 


111 


5 


6 








_ 


8019 


22 


i 



1225 

1323 

893 

313 

129 


3913 



75-81 AT EXAM 
PERSON f OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVEWTS RATE 

122 

331 I 

201 

11 

16 


1017 



85-91 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

22 
12 

5 




39 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



35-61 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



65-91 COMBINED 
t OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



1 








5 


1 


2 


16 ■ 


1 


1 


6 


2 


2 


13 


1 


1 


2 


1 


1 


9 


2 


2 


3 


1 


3 


7 


1 


3 














_ 







_ 




49 


( 


1 


16 


2 


2 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


35-11 
15-51 
55-61 
65-71 
75-81 
85-91 




0.013 
0.033 
0.033 
0.003 


0.027 
0.017 
0.015 
0.023 


0. 106 
0.055 
0.033 
0.878 


0.188 
0.391 
0.398 
0.012 


0.302 
0.201 
0. 186 
0.271 


35-61 
45-91 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.035 , 
0.001 


0.011 
0.020 


0.001 
0.830 


0.113 
0.053 


0.125 
0.217 


35-61 
65-91 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.035 
0.001 


0.011 
0.021 


0.001 
• 0.852 


0.108 
0.017 


0. 121 
0.251 


35-61 
45-91 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.031 
0.003 


0.011 
0.021 


O.OOS 
0.873 


0.367 

0.011 


0.131 
0.258 



sex: female 

EVENT: CORONARY INSUFFICIENCY 

RISK FACTOR: DIASTOLIC BLOOD PRESSURE, FIRST EXAMINER (MM HG) 

PERSONS AT RISK' PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 
FACTOR 

20-71 
75-81 
85-91 
95-101 
105-160 

UNKNOMN 
TOTAL 



RISK 

FACTOR 
20-71 
75-81 
85-9'i 
95-101 

105-160 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



AGE AT 
EXAM 

35-11 
15-51 
55-61 
65-71 
75-81 
35-91 

35-61 
65-91 

35-61 
65-91 

35-61 
65-91 



35-11 AT EXAM 15-51 AT EXAM 

PERSON t OF ANNUAL PERSON • OF ^ ifrr*"- 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAHS EVENTS RATE 



55-41 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



6J-71 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



2161 

2030 
987 
321 
I 1 1 


56 16 



75-81 



PERSON 
EXAMS 

721 
594 
113 
116 
12 


1951 





2639 

3511 

236 1 

926 

192 





9959 


AT EXAM 
t OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


85 

PERSON 
EXAMS 


1 3 



1 1 




53 

13 

20 

7 






5 1 



123 



2969 

3353 

2310 

1272 

579 


11513 



3 
10 
6 
3 
2 


21 



1831 

2135 

1139 

600 

213 


6218 




15 



85-91 AT EXAM 

• OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 



COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 



0.011 

0.0 19 

-0.001 

-0. 101 



t OF 

EVENTS 

s 

11 
s 

i 

3 


3D 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 
P-VALUE 



35-41 COMBINED 



45-94 COMBINED 



CRUDE 


1 
1 
1 
I 



AGE- 
ADJUSTEO 

a 

- 



1 



• OF 
EVENTS 

10 
3 

1... 
1 

9 

^21 



CRUDE 

2 

1 
2 
1 

2 



AGE- 
ADJUSTED 



2 

1 
I 
1 
2- 



SE 
COEFFICIENT 



UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 



BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 



021, 
018 



MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 



0.018 
-0.017 



0.012 
-0.022 



0.031 
0.015 
0.021 
0.015 



0.013 
0.019 



0.011 
0.019 



0.011 
0.019 



0.650 
0.222 
0.959 
0.021 



STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 



0. 172 

0.230 

-0.013 

-1.207 



STD 
SE 



0.379 
0. 189 
0.259 
0.536 



073 
314 



182 
363 



382 
250 



0.290 
-0.215 



0.221 
-0.208 



0. 151 
-0.265 



142 

223 



168 
229 



172 

230 



- 123 - 



RISK 
FACTOR 

NO 

BORDER 
DEFINITE 
TREATED 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



RISK 
FACTOR 

NO 

BORDER 

DEFINITE 

TREATED 

Onknohn 

TOTAL 



TABLE 6-3A DATE-03yAY35 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
8Y AGE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAM' FRAMINGHAM STUDY 30-YEAR FOLLOHUP 

SEX: MALE 

EVENT: CORONARY INSUFFICIENCY 

RISK FACTOR: HYPERTENSION WITH ANTIHYPERTENSIVE TREATT^EMT 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



( 



3S- 

PERSON 
EXAMS 


44 AT EXAM 

• OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


45- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


54 AT EXAM 

i OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


55- 

PERSON 
EXAMS 


•64 AT EXAM 

1 OF ANNUAl 
EVENTS RATE 


65- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


74 AT EXAM 

t OF ANNUAL 
EVEHTJ RATE 


2651 

UOl 

500 

20 


3 

3 
2 



1 

1 

2 



4122 
2205 
1 139 

2sa 


7 
3 

7 
2 


1 
1 
3 
4 


3732 

2299 

1266 

702 


5 

7 
7 
3 


1 

2 
3 
2 


1516 

1252 

552 

593 


2 

7 
3 

1 


1 

3 
3 

1 



4472 





1 



7724 



19 


1 



S049 



22 


1 



3913 



13 


2 



75-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

373 

123 
188 


1017 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
ptAMS EVENTS RATE 

IS 

II 

3 

7 


J9 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



35-64 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



65-94 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



IS 


1 


1 


3 


1 


1 


13 


1 


I 


7 


2 


2 


16 


3 


3 


5 


4 


4 


S 


3 


2 


1 


1 


1 





. 







_ 




49 


1 


1 


16 


2 


2 



ACE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
»S-9<i 




0.620 
0.697 
0.658 
0.371 


0.445 
0.279 
0.262 
0.342 


0. 164 
0.013 
0.0 12 
0.279 


0.431 
0.536 
0.536 
0.304 


0.309 
0.215 
0.214 
0.280 


J5-64 
4S-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.326 
0.270 


0.157 
0.285 


0.038 
0.343 


0.288 
0.242 


0.139 
0.255 


J5-64 
6S-94 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.316° 

0.27r 


0. 158 
0.ZS5 


0.046 
0.34Z 


0.280 
0.243 


0.140 
0.255 


JS-64 
4S-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.248 
0.Z46 


0.162 
0.288 


0. 125 
0.393 


0.220 
0.221 


0.143 
_ 0.258 



c 



SEX: FEMALE 

EVENT: CORONARY INSUFFICIENCY 

RISK FACTOR: HYPERTENSION WITH ANTIHYPERTENSIVE TREATMENT 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 
FACTOR 

NO 

BORDER 

DEFINITE 

TREATED 

UNKNOHN 
TOTAL 



35-44 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

4250 

1001 

316 

49 


56 16 



45- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


54 AT EXAM 

t OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


55- 

PERSOH 
EXAMS 


«4 AT EXAM 

i OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


65- 

PERSON 
EXAMS 


74 AT EXAM 
1 OF ANN 
EVENTS RAT 


5622 

2579 

1166 

592 


3 

2 

1 





1 


4888 
3282 
1835 
1508 


6 

8 
6 

4 


1 

1 
2 

1 


1767 
1903 
1035 
1543 


4 1 

4 1 
2 1 

5 2 



9959 



6 






11513 



24 


1 



6248 



15 I 



RISK 
FACTOR 

NO 

BORDER 

DEFINITE 

TREATED 

UNKNOHN 
TOTAL 



ACE AT 
EXAM 

55-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
7 5-84 
85-94 



75-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



8 5-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



402 

57 5 
37 1 
603 


1951 



35-64 UNIVARIATE 
65-94 UNIVARIATE 



35-64 
65-94 



35-64 
65-94 



35-64 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 



MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 



COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 



0.090 
0.428 
0. 105 
0.590 



0.428 
0.059 



0.266 
0.054- 



0.231 
0.030 



31 
28 
21 
43 


9 

le 

6 
5 



123 



30 


LOGISTIC 


REGRESSIONS 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


0.518 
0.246 
0.318 
0.695 


0.862 

0.082 
0.741 
0.596 


0.200 
0.261 


0.032 
0.821 


0.207 
0.261 


0. 198 
0.835 


0.214 
0.26« 


0.280 
0.910 



65-94 COMBINED 
• OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 






5 


1 


1 



1 


4 
4 


1 

1 


1 
1 


1 


« - 


2 


2 







_ 







21 


1 


1 



STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 








.069 

.357 

086 

465 







375 
050 ■ 







233 

046 






202 

025 



STD 
SE 



0.398 
0.206 
0.262 
0.547 



0. 175 
0.220 



0. 181 
0.220 



0. 187 
0.225 



c 



- 124 



TABLE 6-5B ^ DATE»03DEC85 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER I 000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
BY AGE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAM' FRAMINGHAM STUDY JO-YEAR FOLLOWUP 

sex: MALE 

EVENT: CORONARY INSUFFICIENCY 

RISK FACTOR: HYPERTENSION IGNORING TREATMENT 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 

FACTOR 

NO 

MILD 
DEFINITE 

UNKNOMN 
TOTAL 



iS-'i'^ AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



2653 

1310 

509 



0- 



3 1 

3 1 

2 2 



8 1 



'iS-5'i AT EXAM SS-Sii AT EXAM 

PERSON I OF ANNUAL PERSON » OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



228'i 
1286 


772« 



7 
5 
7 


19 



3909 
2583 
1557 


8049 



5 
9 
8 


22 



65-71 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1631 

1<i99 

783 


3913 



3 
7 
3 


13 



RISK 

FACTOR 

NO 

MILD 
DEFINITE 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



75-8<» AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

<i12 
418 
187 


1017 



8S-9<* AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

Z1 

IS 

3 

D 
39 



J5-64 COMBINED 
t OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



65-94 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



15 


1 


1 


4 


1 


1 


17 


1 


1 


7 


2 


2 


17 


3 


2 


5 


3 


3 





- 







- 




49 


1 


1 


16 


2 


2 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE - 


3S-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 




0.630 
0.53S 
0.672 
0.368 


0.447 
0.281 
0.266 
0.353 


0.158 
0.036 
0.012 
0.304 


0.435 

0.443 

0.,51,8 

; 0.27S' 


0.309 
0.211 
0.205 
0.271 


35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.645 
0.483 


0.176 
0.326 


0.001 
0.138 


0.484 
0.362 


0.132 
0.244 


35-64 
65-94 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0,627 
0.482- 


0.177 
0.325 


0.001 
0.133 


0.471 
0.362 


0.133 
0.244 


3S-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.553" 
0.445 


0.183 
0.336 


0.003 
0.1S5 


0.415 
0.334 


0.137 
0.252 



SEX: FEMALE 

EVENT: CORONARY INSUFFICIENCY 

RISK FACTOR: HYPERTENSION IGNORING TREATMENT 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



35-44 AT EXAM 
RISK PERSON > OF ANNUAL 
FACTOR EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



NO 

MILD 

DEFINITE 


4272 

1016 

328 






5804 
27«3 
1392 


UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



5616 







9959 


RISK 
FACTOR 


7 5- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


84 AT EXAM 

t OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


85 

PERSON 
EXAMS 


NO 

MILD 

DEFIMITE 


507 
827 
617 


1 
1 
3 


l' 

1 
2 


37 
45 
41 


UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



1951 


Q 

5 


1 



123 



45-54 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

3 
2 
'. " 



6 



85-94 AT EXAM 

I OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 



55-64 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



5245 
3860 
2408 


11513 



7 
10 

7 


24 



65-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



35-64 COMBINED 
• OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



10 

12 

8 


30 



2035 
2549 
1664 


6248 



4 
6 
5 


15 



.65-94 COMBINED 
» OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



5 
8 
i 

9 
21 



LOOISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 




0.196 
0.390 
0.214 
0.644 


0.532 

0.254 
0.337 
0.650 


0.712 

0.124 
0.525 
0.321 


0.143 
0.303 
0.164 
0.488 


0.386 
0.197 
0.259 
0.492 


35-44 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.558 
0.298 


0.223 
0.288 


0.012 
0.301 


0.413 
0.228 


0.165 
0.221 


35-64 
65-94 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.325 
0.291- 


0.229 
0.289 


0.157 
0.313 


0.240 
0.223 


0.170 
0.222 


35-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.216- 
0.227 


0.239 
0.294 


0.366 
0.440 


0.160 
0.174 


0.177 
0.225 



125 - 



TABLE 6-A DATZ=03;'AY8 5 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
BY AGE AND LEVEL OF RISC FACTOR AT EXAM: FRAMIMCHAM STUDY 30-YEAR FQLLOUUP 

SEX: MALE 

EVENT: CORONARY INSUFFICIENCY 

RISK FACTOR: SERUM CHOLESTEROL 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



JS-t'i AT EXAM 
RISK PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
FACTOR EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



"iS-S"; AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



55-6'i AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



6 5-71 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



84-20* 
ZOS-ZJI 
235-261 
265-291 
295-1 121 

UKKNOHN 
TOTAL 



1253 
1217 
872 
175 
291' 

331 
1172 



1767 
2306 
1715 
1001 
557 

318 
7721 



2 


1 


2 





5 


1 


5 


2 


5 


1 








19 


1 



2255 

2105 

1889 

913 

151 

128 
8019 



7 
2 
i 


22 



1231 


3 


1 


1 17 1 


5 


2 


873 


3 


2 


123 


2 


2 


191 








16 








3913 


13 


2 



75-81 AT EXAM 85-9'^ AT EXAM 

RISK PERSON I OF ANNUAL PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
FACTOR EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



35-61 COMBINED 
f OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



65-91 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



81-201 
205-231 
235-261 
265-291 
295-1121 

UNKNOHN 
TOTAL 



390 

332 

177 

96 

22 


1017 



17 

n 

5 

6 
Q 

"o 

39 



8 


1 


1 


3 


1 


1 


8 


1 


1 


7 


2 


2 


16 


2 


2 


1 


2 


2 


9 


2 


2 


2 


2 


2 


8 


3 


3 





























19 


1 


I 


16 


2 


2 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFI 
OF RISK 


35-11 
15-51 
55-61 
65-71 
75-81 
85-91 




0.009 
0.0 13 
0. 001 
0.002 


35-61 
65-91 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE. 


0.010 
0.001 


35-61 
65-91 


BIVARIATE " 
BIVARIATE 


0.010 
0.003 


35-61 
65-91 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.009 
0.001 



SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


. 006 
0.003 
.005 
.007 


0. 152 

0.00 1 
. f 11 
0.7o1 


0.380 
0.565 
0. 166 
0. 082 


0.266 
0.125 
0.203 
0.271 


0.002 
0.006 


o.oot 

. 0.559 


0.121 
0. 113 


0.100 
0.215 


0.002 
0.006 


0.001 
0.570 


0.128 
0. 110 


0.101 
0.21« 


0.002 
0.006 


O.OOl 
0.195 


0,389 
0. 16 1 


O.IOZ 
0.236 



SEX: FEMALE 

EVENT: CORONARY INSUFFICIENCY 

RISK FACTOR: SERUM CHOLESTEROL 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 
FACTOR 

81-201 
205-231 
235-261 
265-291 
295-1 121 

UNKNOHN 
TOTAL 



JS-14 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

2350 
11 17 

806 

372 

17 1 

500 
56 16 



15-54 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVfHTS RATE 



55-61 AT EXAM 65-71 AT EXAM 

PERSON I OF ANNUAL PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



2091 

2553 
2259 
1173 
110 1 



1 
1 
2 
2 





1 
1 


1625 

26 '.5 
2933 
2210 
1866 


1 

M 

10 

1 


1 

1 
1 

2 
1 


739 
110 1 
1703 
1287 
1031 


1 
2 
1 
1 
1 


1 

1 
1 
2 
2 


171 
9959 



6 






229 
1 1513 



21 



I 


37 
6218 


. 
15 




1 



RISK 
FACTOR 



75-81 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



85-91 AT EXAM 
PERSON ( OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



35-61 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



65-91 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED. 



81-201 
205-231 
235-261 
265-291 
295-1121 

UNKNOHN 
TOTAL 



AGE AT 
EXAM 

35-11 
15-51 
55-61 
65-74 
75-81 
85-91 



36 1 

186 
512 
350 
205 

7 
1951 



35-61 
65-91 



35-61 
65-91 



35-61 
45-91 



COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 



0.008 
0.006 
0.009 
. 000 



UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 



BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 



MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 



008- 
007. 



008 
0O8 



007 
007 



16 

28 

35 

9 

5 


2 
5 
5 
12 
6 



123 



30 


LOGISTIC 


REGRESSIONS 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


0.002 
. 001 
0.005 
. 10 


0.00 1 
179 
0.117 
0.977 


002 
0.005 


0,001 
0.111 


002 
005 


0.001 
0,099 


,002 
0.005 


0.001 
0. 1 16 



STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 



0. 378 
0.253 
0. 375 
0.013 



375 
0.321 



363 
,310 



0.310 
0.330 



1 
6 

6 
1 

a 

21 



STD 
SE 



0. 105 
0. 188 
0.239 
0.117 



090 
205 



098 
206 



10 1 
210 



c. 



126 



TABLE 6-5 DATE=03DECS5 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
BY AGE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAM' FRAMINGHAM STUDY iO-YEAR FOLLONUP 

SEX: MALE 

EVENT: CORONARY INSUFFICIENCY 

RISK FACTOR: HE.IATOCRIT 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 
FACTOR 

25-<i2 

43-'; «i 

47-i8 
49-70 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



35-'*'4 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



623 
546 
983 
775 
1175 

37 
4472 



45-54 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



942 

967 

1854 

1510 

2066 


2 

1 
4 
5 
7 


1 
1 

1 
2 

2 


385 
7724 



19 



1 



55-64 AT EXAM 
PERSON J OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1 013 
985 
1953 
1599 
2338 

156 
8049 




22 



65-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



450 
493 
963 
861 
1127 

19 
3913 




4 
4 
2 
3 


13 



RISK 
FACTOR 

25-42 
43-44 
45-46 
47-48 
49-70 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



75-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

214 
119 
240 
197 
247 


1017 



8 5-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

16 
5 
7 
7 
4 


39 



35-64 COMBINED 
♦ OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



65-94 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



9 


2 


2 


1 


1 





4 


1 


1 


4 


3 


3 


15 


1 


1 


5 


2 


2 


7 


1 


I 


2 


1 


1 


1< 


1 


1 


4 


1 


1 


11 

















« 


1 


1 


16 


2 


2 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 

COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
35-94 




0.124 

0.069 

-0. 100 

-0.018 


0.097 
0.064 
0.051 
0.075 


0.201 
0.281 
0.043 
0.810 


0.454 

0.247 

-0.380 

-0.066 


0.355 
0.229 
0.193 
0.275 


35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


-0.007, 
0.014 


0.0J9 
0.066 


0.864 
0.827 


-0.024 
0.055 


0.143 
0.252 


35-64 
65-9<i 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


-0.007 
0.015 


0.029 
0.067 


0.S55 
0.846 


-0.026 
0.049 


0. 142 
0.255 


35-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


-0.035 
-0.006 


0.039 
0.068 


0.367 
0.931 


-0.129 
-0.022 


0.143 
0.259 



SEX! FEMALE 

EVENT: CORONARY INSUFFICIENCY 

RISK FACTOR: HEMATOCRIT 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



35-<i4 AT EXAM 



RISK 
FACTOR 


PERSON 
EXAMS 


t OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


21-39 
40-41 
42-43 
44-45 
46-65 


1697 
967 

1043 
356 
487 




UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 


566 
5616 




RISK 
FACTOR 


75- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


84 AT EXAM 

• OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


21-39 
40-41 
42-43 
44-45 
46-65 


297 

373 
353 
436 
436 


1 2 
1 1 

1 1 


2 2 


UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 


6 
1951 



5 1 



AGE AT 
EXAM 

35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 

75-84 
85-94 

35-64 
65-94 

35-64 
65-94 

35-64 
65-94 



45-54 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1843 
1741 
1955 
2194 
1681 



55-64 AT EXAM 
PERSON « OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1 

1 

2 1 

2 1 



6 



545 
9959 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON i OF ANNUAL 

EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1553 
2061 
2260 
2847 
2521 

271 
11515 



2 

6 
7 
4 
5 


24 



6 5-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



646 
1069 
1256 
1609 
1626 

42 
6248 



2 
2 


6 
5 


15 



35-64 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 



0.055 
-0.004 

0.043 
-0.023 



UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 



SIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 



MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 



0.040, 
0.025 



-0.001 
0.027 



-0.033 
0.020 



24 
31 
19 
26 
23 


5 

7 
9 
4 

7 



123 



30 


LOGISTIC 


REGRESSIONS 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


0.116 
.059 
0.075 
0.113 


0.765 
0.951 
0.563 
0.839 


0.052 
0.061 


0.437 
0.677 


0.052 
0.061 


. 991 
0.657 


0.051 
0.062 


0.516 
0.754 



65-9<S COMBINED 
t OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 



0.124 
-0.015 

0.151 
-0.090 



. 1 44 
092 



002 
093 



3 

5 
1 
7 
7 

~i) 

21 



STD 
SE 



0.415 
0.204 
0.262 
0.440 



185 
221 



183 
220 



-0.120 
0.070 



0.185 
0;224 



- 127 - 



RISK 
FACTOR 

29-69 

70-S9 

90-109 

1 10-129 

1 J0-52<i 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



TABLE 6-4 uai c = u jucv-a^ 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
BY AGE AHD LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAM' FRAMIMGHAM STUDY JO-YEAR FOLLOWUP 

SEX' MALE 

EVENT 1 CORONARY INSUFFICIENCY 

RISK FACTOR: BLOOD GLUCOSE (MG/DL) ..,,.,^ 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



35-4^ AT EXAM <i5-54 AT EXAM 

PERSON t OF ANNUAL PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



992 

2S01 

626 

105 

<ii 

200- 
«<i72 



l<i90 
4172 

una 

305 
193 


7 
2 
<4 
2 


1 
1 
1 

7 
5 


216 
7721 



19 




1 



55-64 AT EXAM 65-7« AT EXAM 

PERSON t OF ANNUAL PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1087 


1 





<i056 


16 


2 


1366 


5 


1 


537 


1 


1 


a03 


1 


1 


95 








8049 


22 


1 



<i21 








1761 


5 


1 


10<46 


5 


2 


335 


2 


3 


SS-i 


1 


1 


16 


,0 





5913 


\z 


2 



( 



RISK 
FACTOR 

29-69 

70-89 

90-109 

I 10-129 

130-5Z<i 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



75-8* AT EXAM 85-94 AT EXAM 

PERSON • OF ANNUAL PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



62 
377 
323 
125 
125 


1017 



1 
It 
14 




39 



35-64 COMBINED 
t OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



65-94 COMBINED 
t OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



7 


1 


1 











25 


1 


1 


5 


1 


1 


8 


1 


1 


7 


J 


3 


6 


J 


4 


2 


2 


2 


3 


2 


2 


2 


2 


2 




















49 


1 


1 


16 


•2 


2 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



ACE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


35-44 

45-54 
55-64 
65-74 




0.010 
.010 
0.000 
0.006 


0.008 
0.004 
0.008 
0.005 


0.211 

0.019 

0.965 

. 0.294 


0. 165 
0.225 
0.009 
0.137 


0.132 

0.096 
0.209 
0.173 


75-34 
85-94 














35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.007, 
0.007 


0.003 
0.004 


0.046 
0.078 


0.166 
0.249 


0,083 
0.141 


35-64 
65-94 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.006 
0.007 


0.004 
0.004 


■ 0.075 
0.074 


■ 0.155 
.• 0.250 


0.087 
0.140 


35-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


O.QOS 
0.007 


0.004 
0.004 


0.122 
0.099 


0.133 
0.236 . 


0.086 
0.143 



SEX: FEMALE 

EVENT: CORONARY INSUFFICIENCY 

RISK FACTOR; BLOOD GLUCOSE (MG/OL) 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 
FACTOR 

29-69 

70-89 

90-109 

110-129 

130-524 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



35-44 AT EXAM 
PERSON « OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

1066 

3412 

672 

96 

39 

331 
5616 



45-54 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



55-64 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



65-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1797 


1 





1369 


3 


1 


52t 


1 


1 


5744 


3 





6093 


13 


1 


3102 


11 


2 


1625 


1 





2712 


2 





1752 


3 


1 


301 








730 


4 


3 


501 








159 


1 


3 


433 


2 


2 


360 








333 








166 








32 








9959 


6 





11513 


24 


1 


6248 


15 


1 



RISK 
FACTOR 

29-69 

70-89 

90-109 

110-129 

150-524 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



ACE AT 
EXAM 

35-44 

45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
55-94 

35-64 
65-94 

35-64 
65-94 

55-64 
65-94 



75-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON > OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



105 
823 
640 
219 
163 



1 
1951 



UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 



BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 



2 


10 



1 
1 




2 
3 



5 



1 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



35-64 COMBINED 
• OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 



0.010 

0.011 

-0.028 

0.013 



013 
005" 



010 
005 



MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 



0.003 
0.005 



3 
44 
51 
13 
12 


4 

16 

3 
4 

3 



123 



30 


LOGISTIC 


REGRESSIONS 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


0.011 
0.004 
0.018 
0.004 


0,355 
0.005 
0. 120 
0.002 


0.003 
0.005 


0.001 
0.310 


0.005 
.005 


0.003 
0.330 


0.004 
0.005 


0. 022 
0.346 



65-94 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 



0. 196 

0.265 

-0.756 

0.439 



0.274 
0.153 



0.221 
149 



0.177 
0. 145 



3 
12 
4 
1 
1 


21 



STD 
SE 



0.212 
0.090 
0.506 
0. 142 



0.069 
0.151 



0.075 
0.153 



0.077 
0.153 



e 



- 128 - 



TABLE 6-7 DATE=03DEC85 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
BY AGE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAMi FRAMINGHAM STUDY JO-YEAR FOLLOHUP 

SEX: MALE 

EVENT: CORONARY INSUFFICIENCY 

RISK FACTOR: DIABETES MELLITUS 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 
FACTOR 


35- 

PERSON 
EXAMS 


■«< 


1 AT EXAM 
S OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


15- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


•54 AT EXAM 

? OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


55- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


■6 4 


AT EXAM 
1 OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


65-7<: 

PERSON 
EXAMS 


1 AT EXAM 
1 OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


NO 
YES 


48 




8 1 




7486 
238 


13 

1 


1 
2 


7549 
500 




20 
2 


1 
2 


3504 
409 


9 1 
4 5 


UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 


0- 
<4<t72 






8 1 



7724 



19 


1 



8049 





22 


1 



3913 



13 2 


RISK 
FACTOR 


75- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


■S"! 


1 AT EXAM 
« OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


85- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


•94 AT EXAM 

« OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


35- 

t OF 

EVENTS 


•64 


COMBINED 65- 
AGE- t OF 
CRUDE ADJUSTED EVENTS 


•94 COMBINED 

AGE- 
CRUDE ADJU 


NO 
YES 


900 
I 17 






34 

5 






^6 
3 




1 
2 


1 
2 


10 
6 


1 
6 


UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



1017 







39 











1 


1 



16 


2 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-34 
85-94 




0.560 

0.413 
1 .622 


1.030 

0.743 
0.551 


0.587 
0.578 
0.003 


0.097 

0. 100 
0.496 


0.173 

0.179 
0.169 


35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.431 
1.621 


0.597 
0.518 


0.421 
0.002 


0.093 
0.501 


0.115 
0.160 


35-64 
65-94 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.383 
1 .629. 


0.602 
0.519 


0.S2S 
0.002 


0.074 
0.503 


0.116 
0.160 


35-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.298' 
t .649 


0.611 
0.532 


0.626 
0.002 


0.057 
0.509 


0.118 
0.164 



SEX: FEMALE 

EVENT: CORONARY INSUFFICIENCY 

RISK FACTOR: DIABETES MELLITUS 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 
FACTOR 


35- 

PERSON 
EXAMS 


■44 AT EXAM 

t OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


45- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


•54 AT EXAM 

1 OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


55- 

PERSON 
EXAMS 


•64 


AT EXAM 6 5- 
• OF ANNUAL PERSON 
EVENTS RATE EXAMS 


■74 AT EXAM 

♦ OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


NO 
YES 


5573 
43 




9760 
199 


5 
1 






3 


10985 
528 




22 

2 


1 

2 


5780 
468 


15 



1 



UNKNOWN 

TOTAL 



5616 





9959 



6 








1IS13 





24 


1 



6248 



15 


1 


RISK 
FACTOR 


75- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


•81 AT EXAM 

t OF ■ ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


85- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


•94 AT EXAM 

• OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


35- 
• OF 

EVENTS 


•64 


COMBINED 

ACE- 
CRUDE ADJUSTED 


65-94 COMBINED 
1 OF AGE- 
EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 


NO 

YES 


1733 
213 


3 r 

2 5 


106 
17 








27 

3 




1 
2 - 


1 
2 


19 
2 


1 
t 


I 
I 


UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



1951 




5 1 



123 









30 




t 


1 


9 

21 


1 


1 










LOGISTIC 


REGRESSIONS 














AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 

COEFFICIENT 




1 


'-VALUE 




STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 




STD 
SE 




35-44 
45-54 
55-64 




2.288 
0.639 




1.098 
0.740 






0.037 
0.333 






0.320 
0.134 




0.154 
0.155 





65-74 
75-84 
85-94 



0.063 



0.286 



35-64 
65-94 



35-64 
65-94 



35-64 
65-94 



UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 



BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 



MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 



,337 
. 140 



913 
120, 



563- 
041 



0.610 
0.744 



0.613 
0.747 



0.640 
0.7 56 



0.023 
0.851 



0.136 
0.373 



0.379 
0.957 



0.222 
0.039 


0.101 
0.206 


0.152 
0.033 


0.102 
0.207 


0.094 
0.01 1 


0. 106 
0.210 



129 



TABLE 6-8 DATE=03DEC35 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER tOOO PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
BY AGE AMD LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAM! FRAMIHGHAM STUDY 30-YEAR FOLLOHUP 

SEXi MALE 

EVENT; CORONARY INSUFFICIENCY 

RISK FACTOR: GLUCOSE IN URINE. DEFINITE OR TRACE 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 
FACTOR 


35- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


tt AT EXAM 

1 OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


NO 
YES 


■4380 
60 


8 1 



UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 


32 
4172 



8 1 


RISK 
FACTOR 


75- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


8<» AT EXAM 

1 OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


NO 
YES 


986 
25 




UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 


3 
10)7 





PERSON 
EXAMS 



7535 
168 



IS-St AT EXAM 



t OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 



21 



18 

1 




19 



85-9* AT EXAM 
PERSON « OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

38 
1 




39 



55-64 AT EXAM 
PERSON » OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



65-71. AT EXAM 
PERSON < OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



r 



7815 
210 



2H 
8049 



20 
2 




22 



35-64 COMBINED 
• OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



'^4 
3 




*9 



3767 
1<<0 



6 

3913 



12 

1 




13 



65-9'i COMBINED 
t OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



14 
2 




16 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


35-<44 

45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 


'1 , ■ 

10 


0.917 
1 .321 

o.ai 1 


1.030 
0.745 
1 .044 


0.374 
0.076 
0.437 


0.134 
0.21 1 
0.151 


0.151 
0.119 
0. 194 


35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


1 .082 
1 .403 


0.598 
0.760 


0.070 
0.064 


0.158 
0.255 


0.087 
0.138 


35-64 
65-94 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


1 .039 
1 .404- 


0.599 
0.760 


0.083 
0.065 


0.151 
0.255 


0.087 
0. 133 


35-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.937' 
1.296 


0.604 
0.771 


0.121 
0.093 


0.137 
0.235 


0.088 
0.140 



SEX: FEMALE 

EVENT: CORONARY INSUFFICIENCY 

RISK FACTOR: GLUCOSE IN URINE. DEFINITE OR TRACE 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 

FACTOR 


35- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


44 


AT EXAM 
> OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


45- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


54 AT EXAM 

• OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


55- 

PERSON 
EXAMS 


64 AT EXAM 

• OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


, 65-7< 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


AT EXAM 
• OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


NO 
YES 


5537 
41 








9841 
94 


6 









H346 
144 


23 

1 


1 
3 


6131 
107 


15 



1 




UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 


38 
5616 








24 
9959 



6 







23 

11513 



24 




1 


10 
6243 



15 




1 


RISK 
FACTOR 


75- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


84 


AT EXAM 
t OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


85- 

PERSON 
EXAMS 


94 AT EXAM 

t OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


35- 
1 OF 
EVENTS 


64 COMBINED 65- 
AGE- f OF 
CRUDE ADJUSTED EVENTS 


94 COMBINED 

AGE- 
CRUDE ADJUSTED 


NO 
YES 


1919 
23 




4 

I 


I' 
22 


120 

3 






29 

1 


1 
2 


1 
- t 


20 

1 


1 
4 


1 

5 


UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 


9 
1951 





5 




1 



1ZS 







30 




1 




1 



21 




1 




1 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 

EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


35-44 
45-54 














55-64 
65-74 




1 .234 


1 .825 


0.228 


0.138 


0.114 


75-84 
85-94 




^3.080 


1 .138 


0.007 


0.333 


0.123 


35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


1 . 197 
1 .127 


1 .019 
1 .028 


0.240 
0.273 


0.121 
0.142 


0.103 
0.129 


35-64 
65-94 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


t .051 
1 .135. 


1 .020 
1 .029 


0.303 
0.270 


0. 106 

0.142 


0.103 
0.129 


35-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.637- 
1 ,027 


I .038 
1 .048 


0.540 
0.327 


0.064 
0.129 


0. 105 
0.132 



c 



- 130 - 



TABLE 6-9 DATE=01MARa6 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
BY AGE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAMi FRAMINGHAM STUDY 30-YEAR FOLLOWUP 

SEX: MALE 

EVENT' CORONARY INSUFFICIENCY 

RISK FACTOR: GLUCOSE INTOLERANCE 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 
FACTOR 


35- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


<><> AT EXAM 

• OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


45- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


51 AT EXAM 

1 OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


NO 
YES 


•4335 
137 


7 1 
1 << 


7221 
503 


16 1 
3 3 


UNKNOHN 
TOTAL 







i 1 



7724 



19 1 


RISK 
FACTOR 


75- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


84 AT EXAM 

• OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


85- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


9"i AT EXAM 

t OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


NO 
YES 


:o2 

215 




27 
1Z 




UNKNOMN 
TOTAL 



1017 





19 





S5-6'i AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



7115 
901 




8019 




22 



65-71 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



35-61 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



12 
7 




49 



3228 
635 



Q 
3913 




13 



65-91 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



10 
6 




16 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 

SE 


35-11 
15-51 
55-61 
65-71 
75-81 
85-91 




1.511 
0.991 
0.222 
0.712 


1 .073 
0.631 
0.622 
0.602 


0.158 
0.115 
0.721 
0.218 


0.261 
0.215 
0.070 
0.282 


0.185 
0.156 
, 196 
0.229 


35-61 
65-91 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.705 
0.986 


0.109 
0.518 


0.085 
0.057 


0.137 
0.382 


0.109 
0.200 


35-61 
65-91 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.632 
1 .000 


0.115 
0.5Z0 


0. 128 
0.051 


0.168 
0.387 


0.110 
0.201 


35-61 
65-91 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.568 
0.975 


0.118 
0.523 


0.171 
0.062 


0.151 
0.378 


0.111 
O.ZOZ 



SEX: FEMALE 

EVENT: CORONARY INSUFFICIENCY 

RISK FACTOR: GLUCOSE INTOLERANCE 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 
FACTOR 



NO 
YES 



35-11 AT EXAM 
PERSON f OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

55Z2 
91 



15-51 AT EXAM 
PERSON « OF ANNUAL 

EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



9588 
371 



55-61 AT EXAM 
PERSON » OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



10503 
1010 



21 
3 



65-71 AT EXAM 
PERSON » OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



5398 

850 



15 




UNKNOHN 
TOTAL 




5616 




9959 




11513 




21 




6218 




15 



RISK 
FACTOR 



NO 
YES 



UNKNOHN 
TOTAL 



AGE AT 
EXAM 

35-11 
15-51 
55-61 
65-71 
75-81 
85-91 



7 5-81 AT EXAM 85-91 AT EXAM 

PERSON • OF ANNUAL PERSON < OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1581 
370 




1951 



35-61 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 



1 .615 
0.397 



100 
Zi 


Zi 

4 



1Z3 



30 


LOGISTIC 


REGRESSIONS 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


1 .097 
" 0.618 


0.131 
0.SZ1 



0.915 



0.251 



65-91 COMBINED 
t OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



19 
Z 



STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 



0.312 
0.112 



STD 
SE 



0.208 
0.175 



35-61 
65-91 



35-61 
65-91 



35-61 
65-91 



UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 



BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 



MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 



0.981 
-0.513 



0.556 
-0.535 



0.357 
-0.568 



0.538 
0.711 


0.067 
0.191 


0.223 
-0.183 


0.122 
0.265 


0.511 
0.716 


0.305 
0.173 


0.126 
-0.191 


0.123 
0.266 


0.555 
0.750 


0.520 
0.119 


0.081 
-0.203 


0. 126 
0.267 



- 131 - 



TABLE 6-10 DATE=03DEC85 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
Br AGE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAM. FRAMINOHAM STUDY 30-YEAR FOLLOHUP 

SEX: MALE 

EVENT- CORONARY INSUFFICIENCY 

RISK FACTOR: METROPOLITAN RELATIVE WEIGHT (PERCENT) 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



( 



RISK 
FACTOR 


35- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


m AT EXAM 

t OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


15- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


51 


AT EXAM 
1 OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


55- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


61 AT EXAM 

t OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


65-71 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


AT EXAM 
1 OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


51-101 
105-1 11 
1 1 5-121 
125-1 31 
135-272 


723 
965 
1122 
915 
717 



1 

1 
6 



1 


1 
1 


1131 
1510 
2037 
1615 
1370 





5 2 

5 I 

6 2 

3 1 


1155 
1655 
2175 
1671 
1389 


3 
5 
6 
3 
5 


1 

2 
1 

I 
2 


686 
851 
1069 
766 
511 


2 

2 
2 
1 
3 


1 
I 
1 

3 
3 


UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



1172 



3 


1 


1 
7721 





19 1 


1 
8019 



22 



1 



3913 



13 


2 




75- 

PERSON 
EXAMS 


81 AT EXAM 


85- 


9< 


AT EXAM 


35- 


-61 COMBINED 


65- 


91 COMBINED 


RISK 
FACTOR 


1 OF 
EVENTS 


ANNUAL 
RATE 


PERSON 
EXAMS 




1 OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


1 OF 
EVENTS 


CRUDE 


AGE- » OF 
ADJUSTED EVENTS 


AGE- 
CRUDE ADJUSTED 


51-101 


221 






18 
9 






3 

11 

11 
10 
11 





1 


2 

4 


1 
2 


1 
2 


105-111 


252 














2 
1 
1 


J 


1 


115-121 
125-131 
135-272 


296 

155 

90 






12 









1 
1 
2 


1 
1 
2 


2 
3 


2 
3 


UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



1017 







39 







19 




1 



1 



16 


2 


2 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIOHS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


35-11 
15-51 
55-61 
65-71 




0.055 

0.015 

-0.002 

0.025 


0.018 
0.013 
0.013 
0.016 


0.002 
0.267 
0.895 
0.115 


0.887 

0.239 

-0.028 

0.396 


0.2S6 
0.216 
0.215 
0.251 


75-31 
35-91 














35-61 
65-91 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.016 
0.021" 


0.003 
Q.OtS 


0.058 
0.098 


0.255 
0.575 


0.131 
0.226 


35-61 
65-91 


SIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.016 
0.021 


o.ooa 

0.015 


0.059 
0. 100 


0.251 
0.375 


0.131 
0.228 


35-61 
65-91 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.011 
0.019 


0.009 
0.015 


0.200 
0.195 


0.179 . 
0.301 


0.139 
0.232 



SEX: FEMALE 

EVENT: CORONARY INSUFFICIENCY 

RISK FACTOR: METROPOLITAN RELATIVE WEIGHT (PERCENT) 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 

FACTOR 

51-101 
105-1 11 
115-121 
125-131 
135-272 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



35-11 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

1691 
1130 
1058 

566 

360 

3 
5616 



15-51 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



55-61 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



65-71 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



2095 
2331 
2107 
1372 
2051 



3 


3 




1 



1 


2015 
2109 
2179 
1713 
2837 


1 
7 

3 

2 

I 1 




1 
1 
1 
2 


1216 
1115 
1395 
982 
1510 


2 
2 

5 
2 

:« 


I 
1 
2 
1 
1 



9959 



6 






11513 



21 


1 



6218 



. 15 


1 



RISK 
FACTOR 

51-104 
105-111 
1 15-121 
125-131 
135-272 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



AGE AT 

EXAM 

35-11 
15-51 
55-o1 
65-71 
75-81 
35-91 

35-61 
65-91 

35-61 
65-91 

35-61 
65-91 



7 5-81 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



517 
37 5 
399 
266 
391 



UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 



BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 



85-91 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



35-61 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 



0.029 
0.013 
0.006 
0.027 



MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 



0.020. 
0.013 



0.018 
0.011 



0.017 
0.013 



11 

28 
21 
16 
17 


1 

10 

3 

2 
11 


' 
123 



30 


LOGISTIC 


REGRESSIOHS 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


0.011 
0.007 
0.011 
0.017 


0.006 
0. 070 
0.550 
0. 105 


0.006 
008 


0.001 
0.116 


0.006 
.008 


0.001 
0. 105 


0.007 
0.009 


0.015 
0..119 



65-91 COMBINED 
t OF AOE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 



0.623 
0.300 
0.112 
0.570 



135 
289 



385 
300 



361 
281 



2i 



STD 

SE 



0.226 
0.165 
0.233 
0.351 



0.128 
0.181 



0.135 
0.185 



0.119 
0.195 



c. 



132 - 



TABLE 6-11 DATE=03DECS5 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
BY AGE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAM' FRAMINGHAM STUDY 30-YEAR FOLLOWUP 

SEX: MALE 

EVENT: CORONARY INSUFFICIENCY 

RISK FACTOR: VITAL CAPACITY - HEIGHT INDEX (ML/IHCH) 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 
FACTOR 

•45-19 
50-51 
55-59 
60-85 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



J5-11 AT EXAM 45-51 AT EXAM 

PERSON f OF ANNUAL PERSON I OF ANNUAL 

EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



269 

11 1 

717 

1022- 

2010 

13 
1172 



1062 
1 125 

1658 
1739 
2135 

5 
7721 




19 



55-61 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



2015 
1180 
1535 
1116 
1255 

18 
8019 




22 



65-71 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1752 


7 


2 


719 


3 


2 


712 


2 


1 


112 





Q 


216 


1 


2 


12 








3915 


13 


2 



RISK 
FACTOR 

8-11 
15-19 
50-51 
55-59 
60-35 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



75-81 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

619 
172 

97 

65 

26 



1017 



8S-9« AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS, RATE 

21 
6 
7 

2 



39 



35-61 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



65-91 COMBINED 
» OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



5 


1 


1 


10 


2 


2 


tz 


2 


2 


3 


2 


2 


!« 


Z 


2 


2 


1 


1 


S 


1 


1 











10 


1 


1 


1 


2 


f 




















19 


1 


1 


16 


2 


2 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


35-11 

15-51 
55-61 
65-71 




,0.021 

-0.016 

0.011 

-0.037 


0.011 
0.021 
0.023 
0.028 


0.601 
0.052 
0.510 
0. 189 


0.187 
-0.120 

0.133 
-0.352 


0.362 
0.216 
0.216 
0.268 


75-81 
35-91 














35-61 
65-91 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


-0.013. 
-0.057_ 


0.015 
0.025 


0.391 
0.023 


-0.121 
-0.519 


0.111 
0.211 


35-61 
65-91 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


-0.007 
-0.061 


0.016 
0.025 


0.611 
0.017 


-0.070 
-0.582 


0.150 
0.211 


35-61 
65-91 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.003 
-0.060 


0.016 
0.027 


0.832 
0.025 


0.033 
-0.577 


0.151 
0.257 



SEX! FEMALE 

EVENT: CORONARY INSUFFICIENCY 

RISK FACTOR: VITAL CAPACITY - HEIGHT INDEX (ML/INCH) 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 
FACTOR 

1-29 
30-31 
35-39 
10-11 
15-92 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



35-11 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

122 

289 

769 
1127 
2988 

21 
5616 



15-51 AT EXAM 55-61 AT EXAM 

PERSON I OF ANNUAL PERSON f OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



534 
1Z17 
Z077 
2804 
33t0 

17 
9959 



1161 
2118 
3018 
2706 
1859 

21 
11513 



1 
3 
10 
6 
1 


21 



65-71 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1717 

1715 

1529 

851 

397 


1 

1 
3 
3 

1 


1 
1 
1 

2 
1 


6 . 
6218 



IS 



1 



RISK 
FACTOR 

4-29 
30-31 
35-39 
10-11 
15-92 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



AGE AT 

EXAM 

35-14 

45-51 
55-61 
65-71 
75-S1 
35-91 

35-61 
65-91 

35-61 
65-91 

35-61 
65-91 



7 5-84 AT EXAM 85-91 AT EXAM 

PERSON i OF ANNUAL PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



9S0 
569 

314 

1 1 1 

25 

2 
1951 



35-61 COMBINED 
• OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 



-0,055 

-0.021 

0.034 

-0.062 



UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 



BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 



MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 



-0 . 

0. 



057, 
001 



-0.022 
0.005 



-0. 

0. 



008 
006 



80 
29 
13 

1 



4 

5 
12 

7 
Z 




123 



SO 


LOGISTIC 


REGRESSIONS 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


0.05J 
0.027 
0.035 
0.059 


0.295 
0.410 
0.310 
0.293 


0.022 
0.029 


0.009 
0.973 


0.024 
0.030 


0.369 
0.580 


0.026 
0.031 


0.755 
0.817 



65-91 COMBINED 
t OF AGE- 

EVENTS- CRUDE ADJUSTED, 



STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


-0 

-0 



-0 


108 
156 
251 
110 


-0 



153 
007 


-0 




173 
031 


-0 




061 
015 



8 

6 
3 

3 
1 


21 



STD 
SE 



0.390 
0.201 
0.262 
0.118 



171 
219 



193 
229 



203 
236 



- 133 - 



RISK 
FACTOR 

30-67 
68-75 
76-83 

92-220 

UNKNOMN 
TOTAL 



TABLE 6-12 DATE=03DEC85 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
BY AGE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAM: FRAMINGHAM STUDY 3a-YEAR FOLLOWUP 

SEX: MALE 

EVENT: CORONARY INSUFFICIENCY 

RISK FACTOR: HEART RATE (PER MINUTE) 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



35-<<'4 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1234 

1492 

722 

579 

J95 


4472 



45-54 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1949 
2490 
1394 
1097 
794 


7724 



J 
5 
3 


19 



55-64 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



2309 
2490 
1374 
1 064 
812 


1 1 
2 

2 

2 
5 


2 


1 
1 
3 



3049 



22 


1 



65-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1 183 

I 159 

624 

487 

460 


3913 



3 
3 
1 
3 
3 


13 



r 



RISK 
FACTOR 

30-67 
68-75 
76-33 
84-91 
92-220 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



75-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

301 
296 
192 
123 
105 


1017 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

11 

. 12 

10 

5 

1 

. ■ 
39 



35-64 COMBINED 
» OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



65-94 COMBINED 
♦ OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



16 


1 


1 


4 


1 


1 


6 








3 


1 


1 


6 


1 


1 


2 


1 


1 


13 


2 


z 


3 


2 


2 


8 


2 


2 


4 


4 


4 





« 







. 




49 


1 


1 


16 


2 


2 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 


' 


0.040 
0,020 
0.001 
0.023 


0.023 
0.017 
0.016 

o.ots 


0.088 
0.252 
0.953 
0.206 


0.494 
0.246 
0.013 
0.310 


0.290 
0.215 
0.213 
0.245 


35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.015, 
0.022_ 


0.011 
0.016 


0.153 
0.185 


0. 192 
0.294 


0.135 
0,222 


35-64 
65-94 


alVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.015 
0.022 


0.011 
O.Oli 


0.156 
0»185 


0.190 
0.295 


0.134 
0.222 


35-44 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


-0.000 
0.014 


0.011 
0.017 


0.995 
0.405 


-0.001 
0.193 


0.145 
0.232 



SEX: FEMALE 

EVENT: CORONARY INSUFFICIENCY 

RISK FACTOR: HEART RATE (PER MINUTE) 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 
FACTOR 

30-67 
63-75 
76-83 
84-91 
92-220 

UNKNOWN 

TOTAL 



35-44 AT EXAM 
PERSON « OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

1092 

1803 

1051 

939 

731 


5616 



45-54 AT E:<AM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



55-64 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



65-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1897 
i244 
1911 
1«04 
1301 


2 
2 
1 
1 



1 






2305 

3468 
2351 
1780 
1609 


5 
6 
4 
6 

5 


1 

I 
1 
2 
1 


1103 
1668 
1358 
1 089 
1 030 


4 

3 
I 
3 

(4 


2 

1 


1 
2 



99S9 



6 






1 1513 



24 


1 



6248 



IS 


1 



RISK 
FACTOR 

30-67 
68-75 
76-83 
84-91 
92-220 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



AGE AT 

EXAM 

35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 

35-64 
65-94 

35-64 
65-94 

35-64 
65-94 



75-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



360 
462 
428 
330 
371 


1951 



UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 



BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



35-64 COMBINED 
« OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 



-0.033 
0.001 
0.001 

-0.058 



MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 



-0,004, 
-0.016 



-0,005 
-0,017 



-0.015 
-0.017 



26 
32 
24 
23 

18 


7 
8 

5 
7 
3 



123 



30 


LOGISTIC 


REGRESSIONS 


SE 

COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


0.037 
0.016 

0.020 
0.03« 


0.374 
0.930 

0, 958 
0.130 


0.01S 
0.018 


0.767 
0,350 


0.015 

o.ou 


0.751 
0.346 


0.015 
0.01S 


0.319 
0.330 



65-94 COMBINED 
« OF AGE- 

EVENTS - CRUDE ADJUSTED 



STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 



-0,411 
0,018 
0,014 

-0,305 



055 
219 



058 
220 



193 
229 



J) 
21 



STD 
SE 



0.462 
0.203 
0.2S7 
0.532 



187 
234 



184 
234 



194 
235 



c. 



134 - 



TABLE 6-13 OATE=03.".WS5 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER tOOO PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
BY AGE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAM: FRAMINOHAM STUDY 30-YEAR FOLLOWUP 

SEX' MALE 

EVENT: CORONARY INSUFFICIENCY 

RISK FACTOR' CIGARETTES SMOKED (NUMBER PER DAY) 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 
FACTOR 

NONE 

1-10 
I 1-20 
21-40 
<4l-90 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



RISK 
FACTOR 



35-'<<i AT EXAM 15-51 AT EXAM 

PERSON I OF ANNUAL PERSON I OF ANNUAL 

EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1383 
<i33 

loss 

987 
158 

26 
«<i72 



75-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



3068 

716 

2051 

1602 

252 


8 
1 
<, 
6 




1 
1 
1 

2 



55 

772'* 



19 



1 



55-64 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 

EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



4295 


12 


1 


769 








1682 


5 


1 


1 1 19 


4 


2 


162 


1 


3 


22 








8049 


22 


1 



65-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



35-64 COMBINED 
t OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



26 1 1 


8 


2 


374 


2 


3 


526 


1 


1 


369 


2 


3 


27 








6 








3913 


15 


2 



65-94 COMBINED 
I OF AOE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



NONE 

1-10 
11-20 
21-40 
4 1-90 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



797 

92 

77 

46 

5 


1017 



27 
6 
5 

1 



39 



21 


1 


1 


1 1 


2 


2 


I 








2 


2 


2 


1 1 


1 


1 


1 


1 


1 


14 


2 


2 


2 


2 


2 


2 


2 


2 





























49 


1 


1 


16 


2 


2 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


55-44 

45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 




- 0.055 
0.005 
0.015 
0.012 


0.022 
0.015 . 
0.014 
0.02t 


0.013 
0.748- 
0.286 
0.577 


0.781 
0.072 
0.202 
0. 138 


0.315 
0.223 
0. 189 
0.248 


55-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.016 . 
0.006 _ 


0.009 

0.021 


0.082 
0.766 


0.227 
0.070 


0. 150 
0.235 


35-64 
65-94 


8IVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.018 
0.006 


0.009 
0.021 


0.047 
0.785 


0.259 
0.06 5 


0. 150 
0.257 


35-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.018 
0.008 


0.009 
0.021 


0.042 
0.694 


0.265 
0.093 


0. 130 
0.237 



SEX: FEMALE 

EVENT: CORONARY INSUFFICIENCY 

RISK FACTOR: CIGARETTES SMOKED (NUMBER PER DAY) 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



35-44 AT EXAM 
RISK PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
FACTOR EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



45-54 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



55-64 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



65-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



NONE 

1-10 
1 1-20 
21-40 
41-90 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



2582 

1514 

1571 

298 

22 

29 
56 16 



5528 


3 





7595 


1 1 


1 


4863 


1 1 


1 


1726 


2 


I 


1566 


5 


2 


626 


2 


2 


2009 


1 





1696 


5 


1 


568 


2 


2 


622 








602 


3 


2 


172 





** 


37 








16 














- 


37 








38 








19 








9959 


6 





11515 


24 


1 


6248 


15 


1 



RISK 
FACTOR 



7 5-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



35-64 C0M81N6D 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



65-94 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



NONE 

1-10 
1 1-20 
21-40 
4 1-90 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



AGE AT 
EXAM 

35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 

35-64 
65-94 

35-64 
65-94 

35-64 
65-94 



17 10 

137 

84 

16 



4 
195 1 



COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 



-0.004 
0.024 
0.002 



UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 



BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 



MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 



012 

008 



021 
007 



0.024 
-0.002 



117 
4 
2 




14 

7 
6 

5 




123 



30 


LOGISTIC 


REGRESSIONS 


' SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


0.04 1 
0.018 
0.033 


0.951 
0. 179 
.951 


0. 017 
0.054 


0.488 
0.802 


0.016 
0.034 


0. 195 
0.858 


0.016 
0.054 


0. 145 
0.948 



STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 



-0.056 
0.226 
0.016 



0. I 16 
-0. 060 



0.209 
-0.049 



17 
2 
2 




21 



236 
016 



STD 
SE 



0.419 
0. 168 
0.253 



0.1«7 
0.238 



0. 1« I 
0.240 



0. K1 
0.239 



- 135 - 



TABLE 6-14 DATE=03DECa5 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
BY AGE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAM: FRAMINGHAM STUDY 30-YEAR FOLLOHUP 

SEX: MALE 

EVENT ■■ CORONARY INSUFFICIENCY 

RISK FACTOR: ALBUMIN IN URINE. DEFINITE 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 
FACTOR 


35- 
PERSOH 

EXAMS 


44 AT EXAM 

t OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


45- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


54 AT EXAM 

t OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


55- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


64 AT EXAM 

t OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


65-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON < OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 


NO 
YES 


4366 
70 


8 1 



7599 
99 


12 

1 


1 
5 


7838 
184 


22 




1 




3792 
115 


12 

1 


2 

4 


UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 


36 
4472 



8 1 


26 

7724 



19 



1 


27 
8049 



22 




1 


6 
3913 



13 



2 


RISK 
FACTOR 


75- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


34 AT EXAM 

1 OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


85- 

PERSON 
EXAMS 


94 AT EXAM 

1 OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


35- 

f OF 

EVENTS 


64 COMBINED 

AGE- 
CRUDE ADJUSTEE 


65- 
» OF 
EVENTS 


94 COMBINED 

AGE- 
CRUDE ADJUSTED 


NO 
YES 


989 
25 


■ 


32 

7 






48 
1 


1 
1 


1 

2 


15 
1 


2 

3 


2 
3 


UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 


3 
1017 





39 







49 


a 

1 



1 



16 




2 



2 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 

COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 


35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 




1.458 
1 .016 


1.032 
1 .045 


0.158 
0.331 


0.164 
0.172 


0.116 
0,177 


35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.156 
0.784 


1 .012 
1.036 


0.877 
0.449 


0.021 
0.133 


0.133 
0.176 


35-64 
65-94 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.111 
0.788. 


1 .012 
1 .036 


C.912 
0.447 


0.015 
0.134 


0.135 
0.176 


55-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


.-0.426" 
0.359 


1 .024 
1.056 


0.678 
0.7J4 


-0.056 
0.061 


0. 134 
0.179 



SEX! FEMALE 

EVENT: CORONARY INSUFFICIENCY 

RISK FACTOR: ALBUMIN IN URINE, DEFINITE 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 
FACTOR 


55- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


44 AT EXAM 

t OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


45- 

PERSON 
EXAMS 


54 AT EXAM 

1 OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


55- 

PERSON 
EXAMS 


64 AT EXAM 

1 OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


65-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON 1 OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 


NO 
YES 


5353 
225 






9656 
278 


6 








1 126 3 
225 


24 



1 



6!I3 
120 


15 



1 



UNKNOWN 

TOTAL 


38 
5616 






25 
9959 



6 






25 

11513 



24 




1 


10 
6248 



15 



1 


RISK 
FACTOR 


75- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


84 AT EXAM ■ 
t OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


85- 

PERSOM 
EXAMS 


94 AT EXAM 

1 OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


35- 
• OF 

EVENTS 


64 COMBINED 65- 
AGE- 1 OF 
CRUDE ADJUSTED EVENTS 


94 COMBINED 

AGE- 
CRUDE ADJUSTED 


NO 
YES 


1904 
38 


5 




r 




120 
i 






30 



1 



1 




21 

- 


1 



I 



UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 


9 
1951 



5 




1 




123 







30 


t 
1 




1 



21 


■ 

1 




1 



AGE AT 
EXAM 

35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 



COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 
P-VALUE 



SE 
COEFFICIENT 



STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 



STD 
SE 



35-64 
65-94 



35-64 
65-94 



35-64 
65-94 



UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 



BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 



MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 



L 



136 - 



TABLE 6-15 DATE=05DEC85 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
BY AGE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAM: FRAMIHGHAM STUDY iO-YEAR FOLLOWUP 

SEX: MALE 

EVENT: CORONARY INSUFFICIENCY 

RISK FACTOR: HEART ENLARGEMENT BY X-RAY 

PERSONS AT risk: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 
FACTOR 


PERSON 
EXAMS 


NO 

MILD 

DEFINITE 


A06I 
185 
219 


UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 


5 
'i472 


RISK 
FACTOR 


75 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


NO 

MILD 

DEFINITE 


589 

173 
250 


UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



1017 



iS-^ti AT EXAM 

I OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 

7 t 
1 3 




8 I 



75-J'i AT EXAM 

» OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 



IS-S-i AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



55-6:4 AT EXAM 65-7<i AT EXAM 

PERSON • OF ANNUAL PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



638} 
650 
637 



772<4 







19 



5967 

962 

1119 



301^9 



17 
1 
<i 


22 



S5-9<i AT EXAM JS-6'i COMBINED 

PERSON I OF ANNUAL S OF ACE- 

EXAMS EVENTS RATE EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



29 

5 
5 



39 



258:4 
578 
751 


3913 



6 
5 
2 


13 



65-9'4 COMBINED 
t OF AGE- ■ 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



7 
5 

a 

16 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


35-«4 
'i5-5« 

55-6:i 
65-7:4 
75-34 
35-9:4 




-0.070 
0.245 
0.022 
0.234 


0,800 

0.325 
0.293 
0.322 


0.930 
0.450 
0.940 
0.468 


-0.033 
0. 149 
0.016 
0.186 


0.374 
0. 198 
0.211 
0.256 


35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0. 132 
0.350 


0.207 
0.251 


0.524 
0.213 


0.034 
0.233 


0.132 
0.227 


35-64 
65-94 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.090 
0.35S, 


0.21 1 
0.232 


0.669 
0.205 


0.057 
0.289 


0.134 
0.225 


35-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.002- 
0.2S6 


0.221 
0.299 


0.993 
0.393 


0.001 
0.207 


0. 141 
0.242 



SEX: FEMALE 

EVENT: CORONARY INSUFFICIENCY 

RISK FACTOR: HEART ENLARGEMENT BY X-RAY 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



35-44 AT EXAM 



RISK 

FACTOR 


PERSON 
EXAMS 


I OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


NO 

MILD 

DEFINITE 


5164 
199 
245 




UNKNOWN 

TOTAL 


3 
5616 




RISK 
FACTOR 


7 5- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


54 AT EXAM 

i OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


NO 

MILD 

DEFINITE 


702 
373 
376 


1 f 
1 1 
3 2 


UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



1951 




5 1 



AGE AT 
EXAM 

35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
35-94 

3J-64 
65-94 

35-64 
65-94 



45-54 AT EXAM 55-64 AT EXAM 

PERSON I OF ANNUAL PERSON i OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



5017 
943 
993 

6 
9959 



4 

1 1 

I 1 



6 



7522 
1769 
2218 



11513 



14 
5 

5 


24 



6 5-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



3191 

1 150 
1907 


6248 




IS 



85-94 AT EXAM 35-64 COMBINED 

PERSON I OF ANNUAL I OF AGE- 

EXAMS EVENTS RATE EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



65-94 COMBINED 
* OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 



0.399 
0.129 
0.424 
0.418 



UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 



BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 



,397 
,400 



136 
396. 



35-64 MULTIVARIATE 
65-94 MULTIVARIATE 



32 

30 
61 


1< 
£ 
i 



123 



30 


LOGISTIC 


REGRESSIONS 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VAIUE 


0.515 
0.245 
0.290 
0.543 


0.435 
0.598 
0. 144 
0.446 


0,217 
0.247 


0.068 
0. 106 


0.224 
0.251 


0.544 
0.115 


0.238 
0.261 


0.944 
0. 159 



STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 



0.2SS 

0.103 
0.373 
0.374 



277 
357 



095 

354 



012 
325 



7 

3 

t1 


21 



STD 

SE 



0.329 
0.195 
0.255 
0.490 



,152 
,221 



156 
224 



0. 166 
0.233 



137 



TABLE 6-16 DATE-03HAVa5 

AVERAGE ANNUAl INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
BY AGE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAM' FRAMINGMAM STUDY iO-YEAR FOLLOHUP 

SEX: MALE 

EVENT: CORONARY INSUFFICIENCY 

RISK FACTOR: LEFT VENTRICULAR HYPERTROPHY BY EL ECTROCAROrOGRAM 

PERSONS AT RISK' PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 
FACTOR 


J5- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


<i:i AT EXAM 

1 OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


15- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


S** AT EXAM 

« OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


55- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


•04 AT EXAM 

t OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


65-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON 1 OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 


NO 

BORDER 

DEFINITE 


<,i6i 
73 
28 


8 1 




7497 
152 
95 


18 1 
1 :i 



7695 
210 
1'i6 


19 
2 

1 


1 
5 
5 


5705 
90 
120 


15 




2 




UNKNOHN 
TOTAI. 







8 1 



772'. 



19 1 



8049 



22 


1 



5915 



15 


2 


RISK 
FACTOR 


75- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


8H AT EXAM 

1 OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


85- 

PERSON 
EXAMS 


94 AT EXAM 

1 OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


55- 
1 OF 
EVENTS 


64 COMBINED 

AGE- 
CRUDE ADJUSTED 


65- 
i OF 
EVENTS 


94 COMBINED 

ACE- 
CRUDE ADJUSTED 


NO 

BORDER 

DEFIMITE 


9'i9 
J7 
51 




34 

2 




45 

5 
1 


1 

4 
2 


1 
4 
1 


15 



1 


2 



5 


2 

3 


UNKNOHN 
TOTAL 



1017 





39 





49 


1 


1 



16 


2 


2 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 

35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 

55-a4 
65-94 

55-64 
65-94 

35-64 
65-94 



COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 



0. 150 
0,694 



UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 



BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 



MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 



0.498 
0.218 



0.464 
0.220 



0. 162 
-0.096 



SE 
COEFFICIENT 



0.799 
0.405 



P-VALUE 



0.351 
0.035 



STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 



0.053 
0.214 



STD 
SE 



0.205 
0. 124 



0.557 
0.556 


0. 164 
0.696 


0. 155 
0.082 


096 
0.210 


0.558 
0.556 


0. 195 
0.692 


0.124 
0.083 


0.096 
0.210 


0.387 
0.586 


. 0.676 
0.869 


0.045 
-0.056 


0. 104 
0.221 



SEX: FEMALE 

EVENT: CORONARY INSUFFICIENCY 

RISK FACTOR: LEFT VENTRICULAR HYPERTROPHY BY ELECTROCARDIOGRAM 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASF. 



55-44 AT EXAM 
RISK PERSON e OF ANNUAL 
FACTOR EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



45-54 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



55-64 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



65-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON 8 OF ANNUAl 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



NO 

BORDER 
DEFINITE 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



5563 
38 
15 


56 16 



97 9» 
107 
54 


6 









I 1137 
226 
150 


21 
2 
1 


1 
4 
5 


5966 
134 
143 


13 
2 



1 
7 




9959 



6 






1 1515 



24 


1 



6248 



15 


1 



RISK 
FACTOR 

NO 

BORDER 

DEFINITE 

UNKNOHN 
TOTAL 



75-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1833 
49 
69 



9 
1951 



4 


1' 


1 


10 








a 


_ 


5 


1 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

I i 1 
6 
6 



55-64 COMBINED 
I OF AOE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



65-94 COMBINED 
» OF ACE- 

EVENTS CRUDE AOJUSTFn 



27 
2 
1 


1 
3 
2 



2 

1 


IS 
3 



.1 

8 

a 


1 
i 





30 


I 





a 

21 


., 1 


, 



ACE AT 
EXAM 

35-44 

45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 

35-64 
65-94 

35-64 
65-94 

55-64 
65-94 



COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 



0.827 
0.407 
0.451 



UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 



BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 



MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 



0.948 
0.585 



0.7 34 
0.576 , 



0,495- 
0.566 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 
P-VALUE 



SE 
COEFFICIENT 



0.399 
0.554 
0.789 



0.394 
0.453 



0.400 

0.454 



0.440 
0.470 



0.038 

0.465 
0.567 



016 
595 



067 
403 



260 
4 56 



STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 



0.218 
0. 156 
0. 179 



201 
136 



156 
152 



105 
129 



STD 
SE 



0. 105 
0. 135 
0.313 



0.084 
0. 160 



035 
160 



095 
165 



( 



- 138 - 



TABLE 6-17 DATE=a3DEC85 

AVERAGE AllNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
BY AOE AND LEVEL QF RISK FACTOR AT EXAM: FRAMINGHAM STUDY 30-YEAR FOLLOHUP 

SEX: MALE 

EVENT: CORONARY INSUFFICIENCY 

RISK FACTOR: INTRAVENTRICULAR CONDUCTION DEFECT (WITH QRS INTERVAL MORE THAN 0.11 SECOND) 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 
FACTOR 

NO 

INCOMPLETE 

COMPLETE 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



J5-4<i AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



D16I 

275 
36 

0. 
<i<i72 



«5-5'< AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



7213 

<i'i6 

65 


772'* 



17 1 



2 15 



19 1 



55-6'i AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



7336 
';56 
207 


80'49 



19 
3 




22 



65-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



3566 
133 
164 


3913 



12 
1 



13 



RISK 
FACTOR 

NO 

INCOMPLETE 

COMPLETE 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



AGE AT 

EXAM 

35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-34 
85-94 



7 5-81 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

918 
21 
78 




1017 



35-64 
65-94. 



35-64 
65-94 



35-64 
65-94 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



35-64 COMBINED 
t OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 



BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 



MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 



COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 

0.417 

0.881 

0.169 

-0.354 



0.480 
-0.527 



0.450 
-0.523- 



0.463 
-0.563 



31 
2 
6 


43 
4 
2 



39 


a 

49 


LOGISTIC 


REGRESSIONS 


SE 

COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


0.930 

0.458 
, 0.492 

,l:.0;.823 


0.654 
0.054 
0.730 
.667 


0.312 
0.310 


0.123 
0.516 


0.311 
0.312 


0.147 
0.519 


0.313 
0.312 


0.140 
0.488 



65-94 COMBINED 
t OF ASE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 

0, 124 

0.258 

0.065 

-0.157 



0.160 
-0.248 



0.150 
-0.246 



0.154 
-0.265 



15 

1 



16 



STD 
SE 

0.275 
0.134 
0.189 
0.366 



1 04 
381 



104 
382 



2 

2 
. 



0.105 
0.382 



SEX: FEMALE 

EVENT: CORONARY INSUFFICIENCY 

RISK FACTOR: INTRAVENTRICULAR CONDUCTION DEFECT (WITH URS INTERVAL MORE THAN 0.11 SECOND) 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 
FACTOR 


PERSON 
EXAMS 


NO 

INCOMPLETE 

COMPLETE 


5529 
75 
12 


UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 


a 

5616 


RISK 
FACTOR 


75 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


NO 

INCOMPLETE 

COMPLETE 


1847 
36 
68 


UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



1951 



35-44 AT EXAM 

> OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 



75-84 AT EXAM 

I QF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 



45-54 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



55-64 AT EXAM 65-74 AT EXAM 

PERSON I OF ANNUAL PERSON ♦ OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



9771 

144 

44 


6 









1 1183 
187 
143 


22 



2 


1 


7 


6027 
1 1 5 
106 


14 

a 
1 


1 

5 



9959 



6 






11513 




24 


1 



6243 



15 


1 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



35-64 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



1(7 


1 

5 






65-94 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



20 

1 


21 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
CQEFFICIEHT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


ST» 
SE 


35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 




0.874 
0.579 


0,395 
0.555 


0.027 
0.297 


0.221 
0.167 


0.100 
0.160 


35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.976 
0.268 


0.398 
0.550 


0.014 
0.626 


0.204 
0.085 


0.083 
0.174 


35-64 
65-94 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.766 
0.256- 


0.396 

0.551 


0.055 
0.642 


0.160 
0.081 


0.083 

0.175 


35-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.776' 
0.253 


0.401 
0.556 


0.053 
0.649 


0.162 
0.080 


0.084 
0.176 



139 - 



TABLE 6-18 DATE = 0'40ECS5 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS At RISK AT EXAM 
BY ACE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAM' FRAMINGHAM STUDY JO-YEAR FOLLOWUP 

SEX! MALE 

EVENT- CORONARY INSUFFICIENCY 

RISK FACTOR! DEFINITE NONSPECIFIC T-WAVE OR ST-SEGMENT ABNORMALITY BY ELECTROCARDIOGRAM 

PERSONS AT RISK! PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 

FACTOR 


35- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


•4<i AT EXAM 

» OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


45- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


■54 


i AT EXAM 
t OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


55- 
PERSOH 
EXAMS 


•64 AT EXAM 

t OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


65-7-: 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


1 AT EXAM 
» OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


NO 
YES 


4362 
I 10 


6 1 
2 9 


7352 
372 




17 1 
2 J 


7462 
587 


19 

3 


1 
3 


3472 
441 


7 
6 


1 
7 


UNKNOMN 
TOTAL 



4472 




8 1 



7724 





19 1 



8049 



22 


t 



3913 



1 3 


2 


RISK 
FACTOR 


75- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


■«4 AT EXAM 

f OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


85- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


■94 


AT EXAM 
t OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


35- 
• OF 

EVENTS 


•64 COMBINED 65- 
AGE- 1 OF 
CRUDE ADJUSTED EVENTS^ 


•94 COMBINED 

AGE- 
CRUDE ADJUSTED 


NO 
YES 


530 

187 




28 
11 






42 

7 


1 

3 


1 
4 


10 
6 


1 

5 


1 

5 


UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



1017 





39 







49 


1 


1 



16 


2 


2 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


S£ 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 




2.599 
0.847 
0.699 
1 .921 :; 

1 ^ ii' ."'■ '■ 


0.822 
0.749 
0.623 
0.559 


0.002 
0.258 
0.261 
0.001 


0.403 
0.131 
0.182 
0.608 


0.127 
0.160 
0. 162 
0. 177 


35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


1 .100 ■] 

1.410 


0.409 
0.513 


0.007 
0.007 


0.246 
0.472 


0.092 
0.173 


35-64 
65-94 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


1 .040 
1 .442 - 


0.413 
0.522 


0.012 
0.006 


0.233 
0.483 


0.092 
0.175 


35-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.674- 
1.259 


0.424 
0.528 


0.112 
0.017 


0.151 
0.422 


0.095 
0.177 



SEX! FEMALE 

EVENT! CORONARY INSUFFICIENCY 

RISK FACTOR: DEFINITE NONSPECIFIC T-WAVE OR ST-SEGMENT ABNORMALITY BY ELECTROCARDIOGRAM 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 
FACTOR 


35- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


44 


AT EXAM 
« OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


45- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


54 AT EXAM 

• OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


55- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


■64 AT EXAM 

1 OF ANNUAL 

EVENTS RATE 


65-7!i 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


1 AT EXAM 
» OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATC 


NO 
YES 


5517 
99 








9543 
416 


6 



10647 
866 


20 1 
4 2 


5528 
720 


9 1 
6 4 


UNKNOWN 

TOTAL 



5616 









9959 




6 



11513 



24 1 



6243 




IS 1 


RISK 
FACTOR 


75- 
PERSQN 
EXAMS 


•84 


1 AT EXAM 
t OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


55- 

PERSON 
EXAMS ■ 


■94 AT EXAM 

« OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


35- 
1 OF 
EVENTS 


•64 COMBINED 65^: 
AGE- t OF 
CRUDE ADJUSTED EVENTS 


•94 COMBINED 

AGE- 
CRUDE ADJUSTED 


NO 
YES 


1632 
319 




3 

2 


- r 

3 


97 
26 




26 
4 


1 1 
1 t 


13 
5 


1 1 
4 4 


UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



1951 






5 


1 


123 





30 


1 1 


II 
21 


1 1 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIEHT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED . 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE • 


35-44 

45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
55-94 




0.902 
1 .640 
1 .231 


0.549 
0.529 
0.915 


0.100 
0.002 
0. ;78 


0.233 
0.524 
0.456 


0.145 
0.169 
0.538 


55-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


1.054 
1 .439 


0.555 
0.451 


0.050 
0.001 


0.232 
0.481 


0.118 
0.151 


35-64 
65-94 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.650 
1 .434 - 


0.541 

0.453 


0.208 
0.002 


0.150 
0.479 


0.119 
0,151 


35-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.506 ■ 
1.411 


0.544 
0.455 


0.555 
0.002 


0.111 ■ 
0.471 


0. 120 
0. 152 



^. 



140 - 



RISK 
FACTOR 

74-1 19 
' I20-Ii9 
140-159 
160-179 
lSO-300 

UNKNOHN 
TOTAL 



TABLE 7-1 DATE-05APRSS 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER tOOO PERSONS AT RISK ir ixiH 
BY AGE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAMi FRAMINGHAM STUDY JO-YEAR FOLLOHUP 

SEX- MALE 

EVENT: ANGINA PECTORIS 

RISK FACTOR: SYSTOLIC BLOOD PRESSURE, FIRST EXAMINER (MM HG) 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



SS-'i't AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1223 

2165 

841 

191 

52 


4472 



3 

9 
7 
2 



21 



45-54 AT EXAM 



55-64 AT EXAM 



6 5-74 AT EXAM 



PERSON 
EXAMS 


1 OF 
EVENTS 


ANNUAL 
RATE 


PERSON 
EXAMS 


» uK ANNUAL 

Ekchts rate 


PERSON 
EXAMS 


1 OF 

EVENTS 


ANNUAL 
RATE 


1769 

3417 

1732 

567 

239 


1 1 
29 

26 
1 1 

3 


3 

4 
3 
10 
6 


1440 

3166 

2090 

916 

437 


17 
46 
4 1 
29 
16 


6 
7 
10 
16 
18 


548 

1341 

1 194 

552 

273 


5 

19 

22 

8 

S 




5 

7 
9 
7 
4 



7724 



80 


5 



8049 



149 


9 



3913 



62 




8 



RISK 
FACTOR 

74-1 19 
120-139 
140-159 
160-179 
180-300 

UNKNOHN 
TOTAL 



75-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



120 
345 
315 
153 
84 


1017 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 

EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

7 
15 
t 1 

4 

2 


39 



35-64 COMBINED 
t OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



65-94 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



31 


3 


4 


5 


4 


4 


84 


5 


5 


23 


7 


7 


74 


8 


8 


27 


9 


9 


42 


13 


1 I 


<a 


7 


7 


19 


13 


9 


8 


1 1 


t 1 





_ 







_ 




250 


6 


i 


73 


7 


7 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 




0,023 
0.015 
0.0 16 
0.011 
-0.006 


O.OIO 
0.005- 
0.003 
0.005 
0.014 


0.029 

0.004 
0.00 1 
0.024 
0.699 


0.373 
0.254 
0.345 
0.258 
-0. 134 


0. 173 
0.097 
0.070 
0.114 
0.343 


JS-64 
45-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.019 . 
0.010 


o.oos 

0.005 


0.001 
0.036 


0.381 

0.226 


0.052 
0. 103 


35-«4 
65-94 


tlVARIATE 
8IVARIATE 


0.015 
0.010 


0.003 
0.005 


0.001 
0.03S 


0.309 
0.224 


0.053 
0. 107 


35-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.013 
0.0 IZ 


0.003 
0.005 


0.001 
0.020 


••0.249 
0.244 


0.058 
0. 1 14 



SEXi FEKALE 

EVENT' ANGINA PECTORIS 

RISK FACTOR: SYSTOLIC BLOOD PRESSURE, FIRST EXAMINER (MM HG) 

PERSONS AT RISK! PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 
FACTOR 

74-1 19 
120-139 
140-159 
160-179 
180-300 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



35-44 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



2493 

2244 

473 

154 

50 


54 14 



45-54 AT EXAM 55-44 AT EXAM 

PERSON I OF ANNUAL PERSON t OF ANNUAL 

EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



27 14 9 2 

3982 12 2 

2053 12 J 

763 7 5 

442 7 8 




9959 




47 



1979 


15 


3 


4056 


35 


4 


3025 


39 


6 


1560 


32 


10 


393 


21 


12 








- 


11513 


140 


6 



45-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 

EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



447 
1747 
2013 
1155 

484 


7 
22 
33 

1 1 
IS 


IJ 


. 
4248 



91 


7 



RISK 
FACTOR 

74-119 
120-139 
140-159 
140-179 
180-300 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



AGE AT 

EXAM 

35-44 
45-54 
55-44 
45-74 
75-84 
85-94 

35-44 
45-94 

35-64 
45-94 

35-44 
45-94 



7 5-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



133 


1 


4 


445 


7 


i 


424 


9 


7 


451 


10 


11 


274 


4 


7 








. 


19S1 


31 


8 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON e OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



35-44 COMBINED 
« OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 



025 
019 
017 
007 
007 



UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 



BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 



MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 



0.022 
0.008 



013 
008 



013 
005 



s 

38 
29 
31 
17 


22 
50 
53 
39 
2S 



123 


II 
192 


LOOISTIC 


REGRESSIONS 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


0.018 
0.004 
0.003 
0.004 
0.007 


0. 158 
0.001 
O.OOI 
0.084 
0.302 


0.002 
0.003 


0.001 
0.031 


0.002 
0.004 


0.001 
0.024 


0.003 
0.004 


0.001 
0.191 



2 
2 
S 
8 

10 



65-94 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



8 

29 
42 
21 
23 

^ 
123 



STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 

0.429 
0.443 
0.420 
0. 173 
0.174 



0.514 
0. 184 



0.414 
0. 191 



0.312 
0. 1 14 



5 
4 
8 

4 
12 



STD 
SE 

0.304 
0.101 
0.048 
0. 100 
0. 171 



0.051 
0.084 



0.054 
0.084 



0.064 
0.089 



- 141 - 



TABLE 7-2 DATE-05APR35 

AVERAGE ANNUAL IHCIDEUCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
BY AGE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAW FRAHINGHAM STUDY iO-YEAR FOLLOHUP 

SEX: MALE 

EVENT: ANGINA PECTORIS 

RISX FACTQRi DIASTOLIC BLOOD PRESSURE, FIRST EXAMINER (MM HG) 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF C"ROMARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 
FACTOR 

20-7<4 
75-84 
85-9:4 
95-10<i 
105-160 

UNKNOHN 
TOTAL 



35-'!'* AT EXAM :15-5i» AT EXAM 55-64 AT EXAM 65-74 AT EXAM 

PERSON i OF ANNUAL PERSON I OF ANNUAL PERSON I OF ANNUAL PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1012 
1604 
1 187 
499 
170 


4472 



7 
6 
2 


21 



1478 
2766 
2062 
1008 
4 10 


7724 



15 
19 
23 
15 




80 



5 
J 
6 
7 
10 



1847 


27 


7 


2845 


35 


6 


1964 


42 


1 I 


982 


30 


15 


4 1 1 


15 


18 








_ 


8049 


149 


9 



1225 

1323 
893 
343 
129 


3913 



13 
25 




62 



5 
9 
8 
12 

8 



c 



RISK 
FACTOR 



7 5-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 

EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



35-64 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



65-94 COMBINED 
• OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



ZO-74 

75-84 

85-94 

95-104 

105-160 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



422 
331 

204 
44 
16 


1017 



22 
12 
S 




39 



44 


5 


5 


19 


6 


5 


58 


4 


4 


29 


9 


8 


72 


7 


7 


15 


7 


7 


51 


10 


10 


8 


10 


9 


ZS 


13 


12 


2 


7 


6 


b 


_ 







- 




250 


6 


6 


73 


7 


7 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


se 

COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STO 
SE 


35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
6S-74 
72-84 
S3-94 




d.05O 
0.019 
0.026 
0.017 
-0.016 


0.0 16 
0.009 
0.006 
0.010 
0.029 


0. 002 
0. 039 
0.001 
0.084 
0,575 


0.568 
0.218 
0.315 
0.207 
-0. 190 


0. 182 
0. 106 
0.075 
0. 120 
0.340 


65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.027 . 

o.on 


0.005 
0.009 


0.001 
0.176 


0.313 
0. 153 


0.058 
0. 113 


35-64 
65-94 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.026 
0.012 


0.005 
0.009 


0.001 
0.203 


0.308 
0. 146 


0.057 
0.115 


35-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE' 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.024 
0.014 


O.OOS 
0.010 


0.001 
0.155 


0.233 
0. 171 


0.06 1 
0. 121 



SEX: FEMALE 

EVENT: ANGINA PECTORIS 

RISK FACTOR: DIASTOLIC BLOOD PRESSURE. FIRST EXAMINER (MM HG) 

PERSONS AT risk: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



c 



RISK 
FACTOR 

20-74 
75-84 
85-94 
95-104 
105-160 

UNKNOHN 

TOTAL 



S5-«« AT EXAH 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



2164 

2030 

987 

324 

1 1 1 



56 



45-54 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



2639 

3541 

2361 

926 

492 


9959 



12 

9 

13 

6 
7 


47 



S5-«4 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF AHHUAI. 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



2969 
3853 
2840 
1272 
579 


1 1513 



27 
40 
40 
17 
16 


140 



5 

5 

7 

7 

14 



«5-7« AT EXAM 
PERSON { OF ANNUAL 

EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1831 

2135 
1439 
600 
243 


6248 



30 
27 
22 

5 

7 


91 



8 

6 
8 
4 
14 



RISK 
FACTOR 

20-74 
75-84 
85-94 
95-104 
105-160 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



AGE AT 
EXAM 

35-44 

45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 



75-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON » OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



724 


7 


3 


596 


12 


to 


443 


1 1 


12 


146 


1 


3 


42 














- 


1951 


31 


8 



35-64 UNIVARIATE 
65-94 UNIVARIATE 



35-64 
65-94 



BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 



COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 

0.052 
0.027 
0.027 
-0.000 
0.012 



0.032 
0.003 



0.028 
0.003 



8 5-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



55-64 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUBE ABJUSTED 



35-64 MULTIVARIATE 0.019 

65-94 MULTIVARIATE -0.00 1 



53 

43 

20 
? 



40 
50 
54 
. 25 
23 



123 



192 


lOOISTIC 


REGRESSIONS 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VAlUe 


0.028 
0.010 
0.006 
0.009 
0.015 


0.067 
0.006 
0.001 
0.956 
0.402 


0.005 
0.007 


0.001 
0.692 


0.005 
0.007 


0.001 
0.733 


0.006 
0.007 


001 
0.831 



3 
3 
4 
5 

10 



65-94 COMBINED 
• OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



37 


7 


40 


7 


33 


9 


6 


4 


7 


-12 





- 


123 - 


7. 



STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


S 





-0 




.574 
.339 
.331 
.006 
. 148 




0, 


.394 
.036 


0. 



, 344 
.031 


0. 
-0. 


235 
013 



STO 
SE 



313 
. 124 
076 
106 
176 



06 I 
09O 



06 3 
091 



069 
090 



- 142 - 



TABLE 7-3A nATTr=31AUC35 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER tOOO PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
BT AGE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAM' FRAMINGHAM STUDY 30-YEAR FOLLOWUP 

SEX! MALE 

EVENT: ANGINA PECTORIS 

RISK FACTOR: HYPERTENSION '/ITH ANTIHYPERTENSIVE TPEAT^NT 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



35-4'* AT EXAM 
RISK PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
FACTOR EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



•SS-S* AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



55-6'i AT EXAM 65-74 AT EXAM 

PERSON I OF ANNUAL PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



NO 

BORDER 

DEFINITE 

TREATED 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



265 1 

1301 

500 

20 


4472 



9 
7 
<• 
I 


21 



2 
3 

<^ 

25 



4122 

2205 

1 139 

258 


7724 



30 
2S 
16 

6 


SO 



4 
6 
7 
12 



3782 


44 


6 


2299 


53 


12 


1266 


31 


12 


702 


21 


15 








_ 


8049 


149 


9 



1516 


16 


5 


1252 


23 


9 


552 


12 


1 1 


593 


1 1 


9 








_ 


3913 


62 


3 



7 5-84 AT EXAM 
RISK PERSON » OF ANNUAL 

FACTOR EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 

EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



35-64 COMBINED 
t OF AGE- 

EVENTS Ci<UDE ADJUSTED 



45-94 COMBINED 
« OF ACE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



NO 

BORDER 
DEFINITE 
TREATED 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



373 
333 

123 
188 


1017 




39 



83 


4 


4 


19 


5 


5 


88 


8 


8 


29 


9 


9 


51 


9 


8 


12 


9 


9 


28 


14 


16 


13 


8 


5 





- 







_ 




:50 


6 


6 


73 


7 


7 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 


- 


COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD ■ 
SE 


35-44 

45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 




0.517 
0.399 
0.411 
0.313 
-0.248 


0.279 
0. 137 
0.099 
0.157 , 
0.420 


0.063 
0.004 
0.001 
0.046 
0.554 


0.359 
0.307 
0.335 
0.256 
-0.203 


0. 194 
0. 105 
0.08 1 
0. 128 
0.344 


35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.48 3 
0.257 


0.077 
0. 144 


0.001 
0.074 


0.376 
0.211 


0.060 
0. 1 IS 


35-64 
6S-94 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.402 ' 
0.259 ■ 


0.077 
0. 144 


0.001 
0.072 


0.312 
0.212 


0.060 
0. 1 18 


35-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.362 
0.270 


0.08 1 
0. 146 


0.001 
0.065 


0.28 1 
0.221 


0.063 
0. 120 



SEX> FEMALE 

EVENT: ANGINA PECTORIS 

RISK FACTOR: HYPERTENSION UITH AOTTHTPERTEVSIVE TREATMENT 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 

FACTOR 

NO 

BORDER 
DEFINITE 
TREATED 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



35-44 AT EXAM 

PERSON I OF ANNUAL 

EXArtS EVEMTS RATE 



4250 

1001 

316 

49 


56 16 



45-54 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 

EXAMS EVEMTS RATE 



5622 


14 


2579 


15 


1 166 


10 


592 


S 








9959 


47 



55-04 ii EXAM 65-74 AT EXAM 

PERSON • or ANNUAL PERSON • OF ANNUAL 

EXAMS EVdNTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



4888 
3282 
1835 
1508 


1 1513 



34 
30 




140 



3 

7 
9 
10 



1767 


17 


5 


1903 


23 


6 


1035 


15 


7 


1543 


36 


12 








. 


624S 


91 


7 



7 5-84 AT EXAM 
RISK PERSON I OF ANNUAL 

FACTOR EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 

EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



35-64 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



65-94 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



NO 

BORDER 
DEFINITE 
TREATED 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



AGE AT 
EXAM 

35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 



402 
57S 

37 1 


1951 



35-64 
65-94 



35-64 
65-94 



35-64 
65-94 



6 
9 
6 
10 





COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 

0.944 
0.706 
0.546 
0.388 
0.049 



UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 



BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 



MULTIVARIATE 
riUiriVARIATE 



773 
315 



587 
324 



469 
249 



31 
28 
21 
4J 


46 
63 
45 
38 



123 



192 


LOGISTIC 


REGRESSIONS 


SE 

COEFFICIENT 


P-VAIUE 


0.542 
0.175 
0. 104 
0.158 
0.233 


0.082 
0.001 
0.001 
0.005 
0.834 


0.087 
0. IIS 


0.001 
0.008 


0.090 
Q.119 


0.001 
0.006 


0.096 
0.121 


0.001 
0.039 



23 
32 

21 
47 


123 



STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 



553 
542 
456 
319 
038 



0.6 13 
0.257 

0.466 
0.265 

0.374 
0.20J 



5 

6 
7 
II 



STD 
SE 

0.318 
0. 134 
0.087 
0. 1 14 
0. 183 



0.069 
0.097 



0.07 I 
0.097 



0.076 
0.099 



5 
6 
7 
! I 



143 



TABLE 7-5B DATE=27N0V85 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAH 
BY AGE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAMi FRAMINGHAM STUDY JO-YEAR FOLLOWUP 

SEXi MALE 

EVENT i ANGINA PECTORIS 

RISK FACTOR! HYPERTENSION IGNORING TREATMENT 

PERSONS AT RISK' PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 
FACTOR 

NO 

MILD 

DEFINITE 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



3S-4<i AT EXAM '*5-5<i AT EXAM 55-64 AT EXAM 65-74 AT EXAM 

PERSON • OF ANNUAL PERSON I OF ANNUAL PERSON » OF ANNUAL PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



26 53 

I 310 

509 


4472 



9 
7 
5 


21 



4154 
2234 
1236 


7724 



30 
32 
13 


30 



3909 
2533 
1557 


3049 



46 
61 
42 


149 



6 
12 
13 



1631 

1499 

733 


3913 



17 
29 
U 


62 



5 
10 
10 



( 



RISK 

FACTOR 

NO 

MILD 

DEFINITE 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



75-84 AT EXAM 35-94 AT EXAM 

PERSON I OF ANNUAL PERSON » OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



4*2 

413 
187 


1017 



21 

15 

3 


39 



35-64 COMBINED 
• OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



85 

100 

65 

a 

250 



4 
8 

10 



65-94 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



20 
36 
17 


73 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


J5-44 

SS-64 
<5-7<i 




0.527 
0.364 
0.423 
0.346 
-0.002 


0.230 
0.139 
0.102 
0.165 
0.456 


0.06 
0.009 
0.001 
0.036 
0.997 


0.364 

0.274 

0.330 

0.261 

-0.001 


0.193 

o.tos 

0.079 
0.125 
0.335 


35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.466 
0.3)2 


0.079 
0.153 


0.001 
0.042 


0.350 
0.234 


0.059 
0.115 


35-64 
65-94 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.407 
0.311- 


0.079 
0.153 


0.001 
0.042 


0.305 
0.233 


0.059 
0.115 


35-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.356 • 
0.342 


0.084 
0.157 


0.001 
0.029 


0.267 
0.256 


0.063 
0.117 



SEXi FEMALE 

EVENT' ANGINA PECTORIS 

RISK FACTOR' HYPERTENSION IGNORING TREATMENT 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 
FACTOR 

NO 

HUO 

DEFINITE 

UNKNOWN 

TOTAL 



35-44 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



4272 
1016 

328 


5616 



45-54 AT EXAM 
PERSON « OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



5804 
2763 
1392 


9959 



17 
16 

14 


47 



55-64 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



5245 58 

3360 57 

2408 45 




11513 




140 



65-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

203! 23 6 
2549 40 8 
1664 28 3 




6243 




91 



75-84 AT EXAM 
RISK PERSON t OF ANNUAL 

FACTOR EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



NO 

MUD 
DEFINITE 

UNKNOHN 
TOTAL 



ACE AT 
EXAM 

3S-44 
4S-54 
SS-<4 
S5-74 

75-44 
85-94 



35-64 
65-94 



3S-64 
65-94 



35-64 
65-94 



507 
327 
617 



1951 



3 5-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 



BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 



MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 



6 6 

15 9 

to i 



31 t 



COEFFICIEHT 
OF RISK FACTOR 

0.99S 
0.623 
0.473 
0.197 
0.130 



0.685 
0.194 



35-64 COMBINED 
» OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



514 
200 ' 



362 ' 
119 



57 
45 
41 


57 
75 
60 



123 



192 


LOGISTIC 


REGRESSIONS 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUe 


0.348 
0.179 
0.106 
0.138 
0.241 


0.069 

0.001 
0.001 
0.153 
0,590 


0.088 
0.119 


0,001 
0.103 


0.091 
0.119 


0.001 
0.095 


0.098 
0.121 


0.001 
0.328 



65-94 COMBINED 
t OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



29 
55 
39 


123 



STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 

0.56S 
0.452 
0.367 
0.151 
0.098 



507 
149 



380 
154 



263 

091 



STO 
-SE 

d.313 
a. 130 

0.082 
0.106 
0.182 



d.06S 

0.091 



067 
091 



073 
093 



144 - 



TABLE 7-4 DATD-OSAPSO 5 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
BY AGE AND LEVEL Of RISK FACTOR AT EXAMi FRAMINGHAM STUDY JO-YEAR FOLLOWUP 

SEXi MALE 

EVENT: ANGINA PECTORIS 

RISK FACTOR: SERUM CHOLESTEROL 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 
FACTOR 

8A-20<t 
205-234 
255-26"* 
265-29') 
295-112'* 

UNKNOHN 
TOTAL 



35-<t<i AT EXAM "iS-S* AT EXAM 

pyllr^ ?„2!;rc ANNUAL PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1253 

I2<i7 
572 
<i75 
29 1 

334 
4<i72 



<i 
3 
■i 
5 
2 

J 
21 



1767 
2306 

1001 
557 

7724 



6 
25 

9 
13 

J 

40 



2 

5 

7 

'< 

12 

5 



55-6't AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



2255 


25 


6 


2405 


15 


9 


1339 


33 


to 


9 13 


23 


13 


'iS'i 


12 


13 


123 


6 


23 


S0<<9 


1'i9 


9 



6 5-71 AT EXAM 
PERSON < OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1234 • 


13 


5 


1 17 1 


19 


3 


873 


16 


9 


■423 


6 


7 


191 


3 


21 


16 








3913 


62 


8 






75-34 AT EXAM 85-94 AT EXAM 

RISK PERSON I OF ANNUAL PERSON t OF ANNUAL 

FACTOR EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



35-64 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



65-94 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



54-204 
205-234 
235-264 
265-294 
295-1124 

UNKNOMN 
TOTAL 



390 

332 

177 

96 

22 


1017 



17 

I 1 

5 

6 




39 



35 


3 


4 


17 


5 


5 


73 


6 


6 


24 


3 


3 


66 


7 


7 


18 


9 


3 


37 


3 


3 


6 


6 


6 


27 


10 


10 


3 


19 


17 


12 


7 


12 











250 


6 


6 


73 


7 


7 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


3E 

COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
S£ 


35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-34 
35-94 




0.007 
0.008 
0.006 
0.003 
-0.0Q4 


0.004 
0. 002 
0.002 
0.003 
. 0.009 


0.096 
0.001 
0.003 
0.006 
0.6 16 


0.317 
0.331 
0.236 
0.336 
-0. 172 


0. 190 
0.090 
0.078 
0.122 
0.343 


35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.006 . 
0.007 


0.001 
0.003 


0.001 
0.013 


0.267 
0.232 


0.056 
0.113 


35-64 
65-94 


BIVARIATE 
8IVARIATE 


0.007 
0.007 


0.001 
0.003 


0.001 
0.014 


0.289 
0.278 


0.058 
0.114 


35-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.006 
0.007 


0.001 
0.003 


0.001 
0.013 


0.258 
0.281 


0.058 
0. 113 



RISK 
FACTOR 

84-204 
205-234 
235-264 
265-294 
295-1 124 

UNKNOMN 
TOTAL 



SEX' FEMALE * 

EVENT: ANGINA PECTORIS 

RISK FACTOR: SERUM CHOLESTEROL 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



35-44 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



2350 

14 17 

306 

372 

17 1 

500 
56 16 



45-54 AT EXAM 55-44 AT EXAM 

PERSON » OF ANNUAL PERSON • OF ANNUAL, 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



2094 

2553 
2259 
1473 
1 10 1 

474 
9959 



3 

13 



7 
47 



1625 


12 


4 


26 15 


26 


5 


2933 


31 


5 


2240 


23 


6 


1366 


37 


10 


229 


6 


13 


11513 


140 


6 



65-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



789 


9 


6 


140 1 


15 


5 


1703 


23 


7 


1237 


20 


3 


1031 


24 


12 


37 


■ 





6248 


91 


7 



RISK 
FACTOR 

84-204 
205-234 
235-264 
265-294 
295-1124 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



7 5-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



36 1 
486 
542 
350 
205 

7 
19S1 



3 
8 

12 

7 
1 


31 



4 
8 

1 1 

10 

2 


8 



85-94 AT EXAM 35-64 COMBINED 

PERSON I OF ANNUAL I OF AGE- 

EXAMS EVENTS RATE EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 

46 
23 
35 

9 

5 


123 



65-94 COMBINED 
t OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



20 


2 


2 


. 12 


5 


5 


41 


3 


5 


24 


6 


6 


39 


3 


3 


35 


8 


8 


34 


4 


4 


27 


- 8 


8 


43 


7 


6 


25 


10 


9 


13 


5 


8 


- 








192 


4 


3 


123 


7 


7 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 

COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-34 
85-94 




0.023 

0.003 

0.007 

0.006 

-0.00-0 


0.005 
0.003 
0.002 
0.002 
0.004 


0.001 
0.336 
0.001 
0.011 
0.980 


0.921 

0.11/ 

0.325 

0.256 

-0.004 


0. 196 

0. 135 
0.078 
0. 101 
0. 181 


35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.008 
0.004 


0.001 
0.002 


0.001 
0.027 


0.379 
0. 194 


0.06 1 
0.088 


35-64 
65-94 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.006 
. 004 


0.001 
0.002 


0.001 
0.032 


0.288 
0. 190 


0.059 
. 039 


35-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.005 
0.004 


0.001 
0.002 


0.001 

0.030 


0,247 
0. 195 


0.059 
0.090 



145 



TABLE 7-5 DATE=27N0V8S 

AVERAGE ANNUai. INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
Br AGE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAM: FRAMIHGHAM STUDY JO-TEAR FOLLOWUP 

SEX' MALE 

EVENT: ANGINA PECTORIS 

RISK FACTOR: HEMATOCRIT 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 
FACTOR 

25-«Z 

i*5-«6 
47-<<S 
<i9-70 

UNKNOHH 
TOTAL 



PERSON 
EXAMS 

623 
5'i6 
983 
775 
1 175 

570 
<t472 



Zi-'i'i AT EXAM 



t OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 



3 



2 



12 

4 
21 



45-54 AT EXAM 



PERSON 
EXAMS 

942 

967 
1854 
1 510 
2066 

385 
7724 



I OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 



5 

9 
14 
14 
33 

5 
SO 



PERSON 
EXAMS 

1018 
985 
1953 
1599 
2338 

156 
8049 



55-64 AT EXAM 



OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 



65-74 AT EXAM 



h 
17 
31 
28 
45 

6 
149 



11 
9 

8 

9- 

10 

19 
9 



PERSON 
EXAMS 

450 
493 
963 
861 
1127 

19 
3913 



I OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 



( 



5 

8 

16 

16 

17 

a 

62 



RISK 
FACTOR 

25-42 
43-44 
45-46 
47-48 
49-70 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



75-44 AT EXAH 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



214 
119 
240 
197 
247 


1017 



4 

10 

3 

2 



, aS-94 AT EXAM 

PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 




39 



35-64 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



65-94 COMBINED 
« OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



30 


6 


6 


7 


5 


5 


Zi 


5 


5 


9 


7 


7 


«7 


5 


5 


22 


9 


9 


*Z 


5 


5 


17 


8 


8 


40 


8 


8 


18 


7 


6 


15 


8 


11 











250 


6 


6 


73 


7 


7- 



LOOISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VAIUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD ■ 
SE 


35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-34 
85-94 




0.121 

0.077 

0.006 

0.017 

-0.028 


0.067 
0.032 
0.022 
0.035 
0.079 


0.070 
0.013 
0.778 
0.619 
0.727 


0.444 
0.275 
0.024 

0.044 
-0.115 


0.244 

0.116 
0.085 
0.129 
0.330 


35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.037 - 
0.011 


0.018 
0.031 


0.040 
0.734 


0.136 
0.040 


0.066 
0.119 


35-64 
65-94 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.035 
0.008 


0.018 
0.031 


0.051 
0.793 


0.128 
0.032 


0.066 
0.1.20 


35-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.015 
-0.005 


0.018 
0.032 


0.399 
0.876 


0.056 
-0.019 


0.067 
0.124 



SEX: FEMALE 

EVENT: ANGINA PECTORIS 

RISK FACTOR: HEMATOCRIT 

PERSONS AT RISK' PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



c 



RISK 
FACTOR 

21-39 
40-41 
42-43 
44-45 
46-65 



TOTAL 



35-44 AT EXAM 
PERSON > OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1697 
967 

1043 
856 
487 

566 



45-54 AT EXAM 
PERSON < OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1741 


10 


3 


1955 


9 


2 


2194 


9 


2 


1681 


7 


2 



S45 
9959 



55-64 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



2061 


21 


5 


2260 


19 


4 


2847 


41 


7 


2521 


39 


8 



271 



65-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON « OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



646 

1069 
1256 
1609 
1626 

42 



11 
16 
27 
23 



RISK 
FACTOR 

21-39 
40-41 
42-43 
44-45 
44-65 

UNKNOHH 
TOTAL 



75-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATt 



297 


4 




375 


7 




555 


2 




4S6 


n 


11 


434 


7 




4 







1951 


31 





85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

24 
31 
19 
24 
23 


123 



35-44 COMBINED 
f OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



21 
3! 
30 
SI 
46 

13 
192 



65-94 COMfflNED 
« OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED ' 



18 
18 
IS 
58 
31 


123 



10 
6 
5 
9 
8 



7 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


35-44 
45-54 
55-44 
45-74 
75-S4 
OS-94 




.-0.045 
0.033 
0.054 

-O.OOZ 
0.012 


0.118 
0.045 
0.025 
0.030 
0.047 


35-44 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.074- 
0.004_ 


0.021 
O.OZS 


35-64 
65-94 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.04Z 
0.003 


O.OZZ 

0.025 


35-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


O.0Z4 
0.000 


0.022 
0.025 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 
P-VAlUE 



0.584 
0.468 
0.033 
0.947 
0.799 



0.054 
.899 



0.233 
0.994 



STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 

-0.232 

0.117 

0.186 
-0.007 

0.046 



0.151 
0.012 



0.093 
0.000 



STD 

SE 

0.424 
0.161 
0.087 
0.106 
0.182 



0.078 
0.091 



0.078 
0.091 



c 



146 



RISK 
FACTOR 



NO 
YES 



TABLE 7-7 DATE«27N0Va5 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
BY AGE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAM' FRAMKIGHAM STUDY iO-YEAR FQLLONUP 

SEX: MALE 

EVENT: ANGINA PECTORIS 

RISK FACTOR: DIABETES MELLITUS 

PERSONS AT RISK: 'PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



SS-il AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



:i8 



21 




't5-5<i AT EXAM 55-«4 AT EXAM 

PERSON i OF ANNUAL PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



7<i8< 
Z3S 



7« 
4 



75'i9 
500 



135 
1:i 



9 



( 



6 5-7« AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
£>:AMS EVENTS RATE 



3504 
<i09 



S 
10 



UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



a 

•><i72 




21 




7724 




SO 





8049 




149 




3913 




62 



RISK 
FACTOR 



NO 
YES 



75-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



900 
1 17 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

34 

5 



35-64 COMBINED 
« OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



232 

18 



6 
It 



65-94 COMBINED 
» OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



62 

1 I 



7 
10 



7 
10 



UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 




1017 




39 




250 




73 



AGE AT 
EXAM 

35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 



COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 



0.511 
0.459 
0.243 
0.797 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 
P-VALUE 



SE 
COEFFICIENT 



0.517 
0.285 
0.382 
0.803 



0.323 

0, 107 
0.526 
0.324 



STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 



0.088 
0.111 
0.074 
0.254 



STD 
SE 



0.089 
0.069 
0.1 17 
0.253 



35-64 
65-94 



35-64 
65-94» 



35-64 
65-94 



UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 



flIVARIATE 
8IVARIATE 



MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 



0.664 
0.401 



0.402 
0.408- 



0.357 
0.403 



0.247 
0.330 



0.249 
0.331 



0.254 
0.335 



0.007 
0.225 



0.107 
0.217 



0.160 
0.230 



0.128 
0.124 



0.078 
0.126 



0.069 
0.125 



043 
102 



048 
102 



049 
104 



SEX> FEMALE 

EVENT" ANGINA PECTORIS 

RISK FACTOR: DIABETES MELLITUS 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



c 



35-44 AT EXAM 
RISK PERSON » OF ANNUAL 

FACTOR EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



45-54 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



55-64 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



65-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON » OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



NO 

YES 



5573 
43 



9760 
199 



43 
4 



2 
10 



10985 
528 



127 
13 



6 
12 



5750 
463 



82 

9 



7 
10 



UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 




5616 




9959 




47 




11513 




140 




6243 




91 



RISK 
FACTOR 



HO 
YES 



UNKNOHN 
TOTAL 



AGE AT 
EXAM 

55-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 

35-64 
65-94 

35-64 
65-94 

35-64 
65-94 



75-54 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1738 
213 




1951 



26 
5 




31 



7 
12 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



35-64 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 



1 .534 
0.769 
0.309 
0.459 



UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 



BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 



MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 



1 .216 
0.344 



0.877 
0.36 



0.665 
0.252 



106 

17 


175 
17 



123 



192 


LOGISTIC 


REGRESSIONS 


SE 

COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


0.528 
0.295 
0.354 
0.494 


0.004 
0.009 
0.383 
0.352 


0.257 
0.257 


0.001 
0.230 


0.259 
0.288 


0.001 
0.211 


0.266 
0.293 


0.012 
0.389 



3 

11 



65-94 COMBINED 
• OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



109 
14 




1 23 ■- 



STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 



0.215 
0.161 
0.081 
0.143 



0.202 
0.095 



0.146. 
0.100 



0.111 
0.070 



7 
10 



STD 
SE 



0.074 
0.062 
0.093 
0. 154 



043 

079 



043 

080 



044 
081 



7 - 
10 



c 



- 147 



TABLE 7-8 DATE=27N0V85 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER tOQO PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
BT AGE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAM ■ FRAMINGHAM STUDY JO-TEAR FOLLCWUP 

SEXi MALE 

EVENT 1 AHOIHA PECTORIS 

RISK FACTOR! GLUCOSE IN URINE. DEFINITE OR TRACE 

PERSONS AT RISKi PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 
FACTOR 



NO 
YES 



UNKNOHN 
TOTAL 



33-<i4 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



njao 

60 



J2 
<i'i72 



21 





21 



15-54 AT EXAM 55-64 AT EXAM 

PERSON • OF ANNUAL PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



7535 
168 



21 
7724 



76 
4 





SO 



5 

12 



7815 
210 



24 
8049 



145 

4 




149 



9 

10 



6 5-7 4 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



J767 
140 



6 
i915 



57 
5 




62 



8 

18 



RISK 
FACTOR 



NO ' 
YES 



75-84 AT EXAM 85-94 AT EXAM 

PERSON t OF ANNUAL PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



986 
28 



38 
1 



35-64 COMBINED 

t OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



242 
S 



65-94 COMBINED 
» OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



65 
8 



7 
24 



7 
25 



UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



5 
1017 




39 




250 




73 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD . 
SE 


35-44 

45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 




0.873 
0.027 
0.880 
2.376 


0.519 
0.512 
0.475 
0.826 


0.093 
0.958 
0.064 
0.004 


0.128 
0.004 
0.164 
0.389 


0.076 
0.082 
0.088 
0.135 


35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.404 
1.284 


0.363 
0.383 


0.265 
0.001 


0.059 
0.233 


0.053 
0.070 


35-64 
65-94 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.285 
1.279- 


0.364 
0.38S 


0.432 
0.001 


0.042 
0.232 


0.053 
0.070 


35-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


-0.041" 
1.281 


0.419 
0.388 


0.922 
0.001 


-0.006 
0.232 


0.061 
0.070 



SEX" FEMALE 

EVENT 1 ANGINA PECTORIS 

RISK FACTOR! GLUCOSE IN URINE, DEFINITE OR TRACE 

PERSONS AT RISK! PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 
FACTOR 


35-44 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


. AT EXAM 
• OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


45- 

PERSON 
EXAMS 


-54 AT EXAM 

• OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


S5- 

PERSOM 
EXAMS 


'64 AT EXAH 6S- 

1 OF ANNUAL PERSON 
EVENTS RATE EXAMS 


74 AT EXAM 

• OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


NO 
YES 


5537 
41 


5 



9841 
94 


45 

1 


2 
5 


11346 
144 


138 
2 


6 

7 


6lJt 
107 


88 

3 


7 
14 


UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 


38 
56 16 



5 


24 
9959 


1 
47 


21 
2 


23 
11513 



140 



6 


fo 

6248 






7 


RISK 

FACTOR 


75-8< 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


1 AT EXAM 
• OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS (?ATE 


85- 

PERSON 
EXAMS 


■94 AT EXAM 

t OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


35- 

« OF 
EVENTS 


'64 COMBINED 

AGE- 
CRUDE ADJUSTED 


65-94 COMBINED 
t OF AGE- 
EVENTS CRUDE AOJUS 


NO 
YES 


1919 
23 


29 8* 
2 43 


120 
3 






1«8 

S 


4 
5 


_ 4 
5 


118 
5 


7 
19 


7 
21 


UHKNOHN 
TOTAL 


1 1 
1951 




31 8 


9 
123 






t 
192 


< 


8 

4 



123 


.. 

7 


9 

7 










LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 






- 






AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
Of RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 




P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 




STD 
SE 




35-44 




- 




- 




- 




- 




- 




45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 




0.850 
0.134 
0.684 
1 826 




1.016 
0.717 
0.595 
0.763 




0.401 
0.851 
0.251 
0.017 




0.082 
0.015 
0.089 
0.198 




0.098 
O.OSO 
0.077 
0.083 




35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.428 
0.980 




0.585 
0.465 




0.464 
0.035 




0.043 

0.123 




0.059 
0.058 




35-64 
65-94 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.311 
0.976- 




0.586 
0.465 




0.596 
0.036 




0.031 
0.123 




0.059 
0.058 




35-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.002* 
0.791 




0.595 
0.476 




0.997 
0.096 




. 0.000 
0.099 




0.060 
0.060 





148 



RISK 

FACTOR 



NO 
YES 



UNKNOHN 
TOTAL 



TABLE 7-9 DATE=01MAR86 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
BY AGE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAH' FRAMINGHAM STUDY JO-YEAR FCLLOHUP 

SEXi MALE 

EVENT > ANGINA PECTORIS 

RISK FACTOR! GLUCOSE INTOLERANCE 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



35-<i<« AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



4JSS 
1 J7 




'i<i72- 



20 
1 




21 



IS-S"* AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



7221 
iOS 




772<i 



70 
10 




SO 



5 
10 



55-i't AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



71'i5 
90* 





so<;9 



12: 
21 




119 



9 
12 



65-71 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 

EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



( 



3228 
625 




391J 



17 
15 




62 



7 
11 



1 



RISK 
FACTOR 



NO 
YES 



75-81 AT EXAM 
PERSON i OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



S02 
215 



S5-91 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

27 
12 



J5-61 COMBINED 
« OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



21S 
22 



6 
10 



65-91 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



55 

18 



7 
10 



7 
10 



UNKNOHN 
TOTAL 




1017 




J9 




250 




7i 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 

COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


i5-1« 
15-51 
55-61 
65-71 
75-81 
85-91 




0.161 
0.729 
0.265 
0.116 
0.061 


t .028 
0.311 
0.238 
0.300 
0.805 


0.651 
0.033 
0.265 
0.165 
0.9J6 


0.080 
0.180 
0.081 
0. 158 
0.026 


0.177 
0.081 
0.075- 
0.111 
0.329 


J5-61 
65-91 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.585 
0.582 


0.191 
0.271 


0.002 
0.163 


0.155 
0.118 


0.051 
0.106 


55-61 
65-91 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.367 
0.J96 


0.19S 
0.275 


0.057 
0.150 


0.097 
0.153 


0.051 
0.106 


55-61 
65-91 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.281 
0.112 


0.201 
0.277 


0.163 
0.137 


0.071 
0.159 


0.053 
0.107 



SEXi FEMALE 

EVENTi ANGINA PECTORIS 

RISK FACTOR' GLUCOSE INTOLERANCE 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 
FACTOR 



NO 
YES 



35-11 AT EXAM 
PERSON < OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



5522 
91 



15-51 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



9588 
371 



13 
1 



55-61 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



10503 
1010 



119 
21 



6 
10 



65-71 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



5398 
850 



77 
11 



UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 




5616 




9959 




17 




11513 




110 




6218 




91 



RISK 
FACTOR 



NO 
YES 



75-81 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1581 
37 



20 
11 



6 

15 



85-91 AT EXAM 
PERSON » OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

100 
25 



35-64 COMBINED 
» OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



167 
25 



65-91 COMBINED 
• OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



98 
25 



7 
10 



7 
10 



UNKNOHN 
TOTAL 




1951 



S 
31 



a 

125 




192 




125 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VAIUE 


STANDARDIZED - 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


55-11 
15-51 
55-61 
65-71 
75-81 
85-94 




0^881 
0.617 
0.116 
0.872 


0T525 
0.259 
0.295 
0.580 


o7o93 
0.010 
0.618 
0.022 


7167 
0.171 
0.050 
0.312 


o."ioo 

0.068 
0.100 
0.119 


55-61 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.966 
0.580 


0.216 
0.226 


0.001 
0.095 


0.219 
0.135 


0.019 
0.081 


35-61 
65-91 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.626 
0.395 


0.218 
0.227 


0.001 
0.082 


0.112 
0.111 


0.050 
0.081 


35-61 
65-91 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.518 
0.315 


0.225 
0.250 


0.011 
0.136 


0.121 
0.122 


0.051 
0.082 



<v 



- 149 - 



TABLE 7-10 DATE'27N0V8S 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
BY AGE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAM^ FRAMINGHAM STUDY JO-YEAR FOLLOWUP 

SEXi MALE 

EVENT: ANGINA PECTORIS 

RISK FACTOR: METROPOLITAN RELATIVE WEIGHT (PERCENT) 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 
FACTOR 

54-104 
105-114 
115-124 
1Z5-1J4 
135-272 

UNKNOHH 
TOTAL 



35-44 AT EXAM 45-54 AT EXAM 

PERSON < OF ANNUAL PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



723 








965 


4 


2 


1122 


4 


2 


915 


6 


J 


747 


7 


5 








. 


4472 


21 


2 



1131 
1540 
2037 
1645 
1370 

77i4 



5 
14 
21 
20 
20 


SO 



55-64 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 

EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1155 


16 


7 


1655 


26 


i 


2175 


39 


9 


1674 


33 


10 


1389 


35 


13 


1 








»049 


149 


9 



65-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



686 
851 
1069 
766 
541 


3913 



13 
13 
10 


62 



12 
9 



RISK 
FACTOR 

54-104 
105-114 
115-124 
125-134 
135-272 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



75-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



224 
252 
296 
155 
90 


1017 



4 
4 
2 
10 
6 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

1^ 

9 

12 






39 



35-64 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



65-94 COMBINED 
t OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



21 


3 


4 


7 


4 


4 


44 


5 


5 


14 


6 


6 


64 


6 


6 


20 


7 


7 


59 


7 


7 


21 


11 


1 1 


62 


9 


9 


1 1 


9 


8 














_ 




250 


6 


6 


73 


7 


7 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 

COEFFICIEMT 


P-VALUe 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 




0.032 
0.013 
0.013 
0.015 
0.011 


0.012 
0.006 
0.005 
0.008 
0.022 


0.008 
0.004 
0.011 
0.048 
0.599 


0.515 
0.297 
0.200 
0.242 
0.168 


0.194 
0. 104 
0.079 
0.122 
0.320 


35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 

UNIVARIATE 


0.016- 
0.015. 


0.004 
0.007 


0.001 

0.036 


0.264 
0.23S 


0.060 
0.112 


■55-64 
65-94 


8IVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.016 
0.015 


0.004 
0.007 


0.001 
0.041 


0.264 
0.231 


0.060 
0.113 


35-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.015 
0.011 


0.004 
0.008 


0.001 
0.127 


0.237 
0.179 


0.063 
0.117 



SeXi FEMALE 

EVENT! ANOIN* PECTORIS 

RISK FACTOR" METROPOLITAN RELATIVE WEIGHT (PERCENT) 

PERSONS AT RISK' PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 
FACTOR 

54-104 
105-114 
1 15-124 
125-134 
135-272 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



35-44 AT EXAM 45-34 AT EXAM 

PERSON i OF ANNUAL PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1694 

1430 

1058 

566 

860 

8 

5616 



2095 
2331 
2107 
1372 
2054 


9959 



10 
5 

12 




47 



55-64 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



2045 
2409 
2479 
1743 
2837 


11513 



18 
17 
23 
24 
58 


140 



65-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1216 


16 


7 


1145 


19 


8 


1395 


16 


6 


982 


19 


10 


1510 


21 


7 








. 


6248 


91 


7 



RISK 
FACTOR 

54-104 
105-114 
115-124 
125-134 
135-272 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



AGE AT 
EXAM 

35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 

35-64 
65-94 

35-64 
65-94 

55-64 
i5-94 



7 5-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



517 
375 
399 
266 
394 


1951 



UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 



BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 



7 
2 
9 
5 
8 


31 



7 
3 

11 

9 

10 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



35-64 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 



020 
013 
.014 
001 
009 



016 - 
003 



MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 



014 
003 



007 
001 



41 
28 
21 
16 
17 


28 
24 
37 
28 
75 



123 



192 


LOGISTIC 


REGRESSIONS 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


0.016 
O.OOS 
0.003 
0.005 
0.008 


0.201 
0.020 
0.001 
389 

0.282 


O.OOS 
0.004 


0.001 
0.416 


0.003 
0.004 


0.001 
0.449 


0.003 
0.004 


0.020 
0.799 



65-94 COMBINED 
t OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



23 

21 
25 
24 
30 


123 



STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 

0.406 
0.273 
0.317 
0.015 
0.182 



0.355 
0.071 



0.3O7 
0.067 



0.158 
0.023 



STD 
SE 

0.317 
0.118 
0.069 
0.105 
0.169 



0.055 
0.088 



058 
088 



068 
091 



- 150 - 



TABLE 7-11 DATE=27N0V8S 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
BY AGE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAM' FRAMINGHAM STUDY JO-YEAR FOLLOHUP 

SEX: MALE 

EVENT: ANGINA PECTORIS 

RISK FACTOR' VITAL CAPACITY - HEIGHT INDEX CML/INCH) 

PERSONS AT risk: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 

FACTOR 

:<5-<49 
50-54 
55-59 
60-S5 

UNKNOUN 
TOTAL 



J5-<i'* AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



269 

nil 

1022 
2010 



15 
4472 



2 


4 


2 


2 


3 


4 


7 


2 


1 


Zi 


;i 


2 



45-54 AT EXAM 55-64 AT EXAM 65-74 AT EXAM 

PERSON » OF ANNUAL PERSON f OF ANNUAL PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1062 
1125 
165S 
1739 
2135 

5 

7724 



i: 

13 
20 
13 
16 


80 



2045 


38 


9 


1480 


23 


8 


1835 


39 


11 


1416 


34 


12 


1255 


15 


6 


IS 








8049 


149 


9 



1752 
749 
712 
442 
246 

12 
3913 



29 

14 




62 



RISK 
FACTOR 

8-44 

45-49 
50-54 
55-59 
60-85 

UNKNOHN 
TOTAL 



AGE AT 
EXAM 

35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 

35-64 
65-94 

35-64 
65-94 

35-64 
65-94 



75-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON » OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



649 

172 

97 

65 

26 



10 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 



-0.022 
-0,033 



001 
004 
008 



UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 



BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 



MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 



-0.025 ■ 
-0.001 



-0.009 
-0.002 



-0.003 
-0.002 



24 
6 

7 
2 



58 
38 
60 
55 
38 


9 
6 

7 
7 
4 



39 


1 
250 


14 
6 


LOGISTIC 


REGRESSIONS 




SE 

COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 




0.024 
0.012 
0.009 
0.014 
0.036 


0.361 

0.006 
0.926 
0.795 
0.818 




0.006 
0.012 


0.001 
0.951 




0.007 
0.013 


0.190 
0.851 




O.0O7 
0.013 


0.644 
0.881 





35-64 COMBINED 
t OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



65-94 COMBINED 
» OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 

-0.198 
-0.296 

0.008 
-0.033 

0.077 



-0.237 
-0.007 



-0.087 
-0.023 



-0.032 
-0.018 



37 

16 

8 

9 

3 


73 



STD . 

SE 

0.217 
0.108 
0.083 
0.123 
0.334 



062 
118 



066 
121 



070 
133 



SEX: FEMALE 

EVENT: ANGINA PECTORIS 

RISK FACTORi VITAL CAPACITY - HEIGHT INDEX (ML/INCH) 

PERSONS AT RISK" PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 
FACTOR 

4-29 
30-34 
35-39 
40-44 
45-92 

UNKNOHN 
TOTAL 



3J-44 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



122 

289 

769 

1427 

2988 

21 
5616 



43-54 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



534 

1217 
2077 
2804 
3310 

17 
9959 



5 

7 
18 
10 

7 


47 



55-64 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1461 
2418 
3048 
2706 
1859 

21 
11513 



27 
34 
37 
32 
10 


140 



65-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON < OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1747 

1715 

1529 

854 

397 

6 
6248 



40 
20 
14 
12 
5 


91 



11 

6 

5 
7 
6 



7 



RISK 
FACTOR 

4-29 
30-34 
35-39 
40-44 
45-92 

UNKNOHN 
TOTAL 



AGE AT 

EXAM 

55-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 

35-64 
65-94 

35-64 
65-94 

3S-64 
65-94 



7 5-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



950 


14 


8 


569 


9 


8 


314 


7 


»1 


111 


1 


S 


25 





a 


2 





9 


1951 


31 


8 



UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 



BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 



8 5-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



55-64 COMBINED 
t OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 

-0.134 
-0.065 
-0.037 

-o.aii 

0.Q11 



-0.068 . 
-0.024 



MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 



-0.045 
-0.028 



-0.052 
-0.024 



80 

29 

13 

1 




34 
42 
55 
43 
18 



23 



192 


LOGISTIC 


REGRESSIONS 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VAIUE 


0.049 
0.019 
0.011 
0.014 
0.026 


0.006 
0.001 
0.001 
O.OIS 
0.672 


0.009 
0.012 


0.001 
0.047 


0.009 
0.012 


0.001 
0.024 


0.010 
0.013 


0.002 
0.059 



65-94 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



55 

29 

21 

13 

5 


123 



STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 

-0.980 
-0.478 
-0.279 
-0.244 
0.077 



-0.541 
-0.178 



-0.355 
-0.209 



-0.256 
-0.181 



10 
6 
6 
7 
6 


■ 7 



STD 
SE 

0.359 
0.138 
0.083 
0.104 
0.182 



069 

090 



,075 
093 



081 
096 



10 
6 
6 
6 
5 


7 



151 



TABLE 7-12 DATE=>27M0V!5 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
BY AGE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAM" FRAMINGHAM STUDY 30-YEAR FOLLOWUP 

SEXi MALE 

EVENT; ANGINA PECTORIS 

RISK FACTOR! HEART RATE (PER MINUTE) 

PERSONS AT RISKi PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



35-<i'4 AT EXAM 
RISK PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
FACTOR EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



30-67 
68-73 
76-83 
84-91 
92-220 



UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



128A 


2 




1492 


7 




722 


4 




579 


6 




395 


2 










_ 


1472 


21 


2 



45-54 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1949 
2490 
1394 
1097 
794 


7724 



19 
25 
17 
13 
6 


80 



55-64 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



2309 
2490 
1374 
1064 
S12 


3049 



39 
46 
30 
19 

15 


149 



8 
9 
11 
9 
9 



65-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1 183 

1159 

624 

487 

460 


3915 



20 
14 
10 
12 

6 


62 



S 
6 
i 
12 
7 



■3 



RISK 
FACTOR 

30-67 
68-75 
76-83 
84-91 
92-220 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



75-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATfe 



301 
296 
192 
123 
105 


1017 



8 5-9* AT EXAM . 

PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

<1 

12 

10 

5 

1 


59 



35-«4 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



65-94 COMBINED 
t OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



«0 






21 




7 


7» 






18 




6 


SI 






13 




8 


38 






14 


11 


1 1 


23 






7 




6 





. 







« 




230 


t 


i 


73 


7 


7 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


45-5« 
55-«<i 
6S-74 
75-84 
85-94 




0.030 
0.003 
0.005 
0.005 
0.030 


0.015 
0.009 
0.006 
0.009 
0.021 


0.053 
0.766 
0.456 
0.622 
8.156 


0.371 
0.053 
0.060 
0.062 
0.402 


0.191 
0.111 
0.081 
0.125 
0.283 


35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


O.aOA- 
0.009 _ 


0.005 
0.008 


8.191 
0.292 


0.081 
9.119 


0.062 
0.113 


35-64 
65-94 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.006 
0.009 


0.005 
0.008 


0.190 
0.291 


0.081 
0.119 


0.062 
0.113 


35-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


-0.001 
0.005 


0.005 
0.009 


0.844 
0.560 


-0.013 
0.068 


0.066 
0.117 



SEXi FEMALE 

EVENT I ANGINA PECTORIS 

RISK FACTOR' HEART RATE (PER MINUTE3 

PERSONS AT RISK I PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HeART DISEASE 



RISK 
FACTOR 


35- 
PERSOH 
EXAMS 


44 AT EXAM 

• OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


45- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


34 AT EXAM 

« OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


5S-« 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


AT EX 
« OF 

EVENTS 


kit 
ANNUAL 
RATE 


65-7"! 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


AT EXAM 
• OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


30-67 
68-75 
76-83 
84-91 
92-220 


1092 

1803 

1051 

939 

731 



2 
2 

1 




1 

1 
1 



1897 
3244 
1911 
1604 
1303 


10 3 

16 2 

7 2 

9 3 

5 2 


2303 
3468 
2351 
1780 
1609 


28 
40 
27 
23 
22 




1103 
1668 
1358 
1089 
1030 


14 
31 
18 
13 
15 


6 
9 

7 
6 

7 


UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



5616 



5 






9959 



47 2 




11515 



140 


6 



6248 



91 


7 


RISK 
FACTOR 


75- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


84 AT EXAM 

I OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RaT£ 


85- 

PERSON 
EXAMS 


94 AT EXAM 

» OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


55-«4 eOMBIHED 65- 
t OF AGE- 1 OF 
EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED EVENTS 


94 COMBINED 

AGE- 
CRUDE ADJU 


38-«7 
««-75 
76-83 
84-91 
92-220 


360 

462 
428 
530 
371 


5 
8 

7 

a 

3 


7 
9 
8 

12 
4 


26 
32 
24 
23 

18 




38 
58 

3£ 
S3 
27 






19 
. 39 
25 
21 
19 






UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



1951 



31 


8 



123 




a 

192 


4 


4 



125 - 


7. 





AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 

COEFFICIENT 


35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 




0.010 
-0.002 

0.000 
-0,005 
-0.007 


0.053 
0.012 
0.007 
0.008 
0.015 


35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.000- 
-0.004 


0.006 
0.007 


55-64 
65-94 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.000 
-0.004 


0.006 
0.007 


55-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


-0.007 
-0.006 


0.006 
0.007 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 
P-VALUE 



0.763 
0.897 
0.963 
0.547 
0.595 



0.960 
0.529 



0.997 
0.538 



0.270 
0.391 



STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 

0.126' 
-0.019 

0.004 
-0.065 
-0.100 



0.0O4 
-0.058 



0.000 
-0.057 



-0.085 
-0.080 



STO 
SE 

0.416 
0.147 
0.085 
0.108 
0.188 



0.072 
0.093 



0.072 
0.095 



0.077 
0.095 



- 152 



V^BLE 7-13 DATE=05APR85 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
BY ACE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAM' FRAMINOMAM STUDY 30-YEAR FOLLCWUP 

SEXi MALE 

EVENTi ANGINA PECTORIS 

RISIC FACTOR! CIGARETTES SMOKED (NUMBER PER DAY) 

PERSONS AT RISK' PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 
FACTOR 

NONE 

1-10 
1 1-20 
21-<i0 
'il-90 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



35-'i4 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 

EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



ns3 




1 


■•SI 




S 


14SS 




J 


9«7 




2 


1S« 




9 


24 








1**72 ■ 


21 


2 



OS-SI AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 

EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



306S 

714 

20S1 

1602 

252 

35 

772<i 



29 

6 

25 

18 

2 


SO 



55-64 AT EXAM 
PERSON « OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1295 


72 


8 


769 


12 


8 


1682 


32 


10 


1 1 19 


28 


13 


162 


5 


15 


22 


■ 





8049 


149 


9 



65-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



26 11 
374 
526 
369 

27 

6 
59 13 



47 
4 
5 

6 



62 



75-54 AT EXAM 
RISK PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
FACTOR EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



35-64 COMBINED 
• OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



65-94 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



NONE 

I-IO 
1 1-20 
21-40 
41-90 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



797 
92 

77 

46 

5 


1017 



27 
6 
5 




39 



104 


6 




57 


8 


8 


21 


5 




4 


4 


4 


66 


6 




6 . 


5 


5 


49 


7 




6 


7 


6 


to 


9 































250 


6 


6 


73 


7 


7 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STO" 
SE 


35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 




0.021 

0.004 

0.012 

-0.012 


' o;oo7' 
: o.dos 

.:,, 0.0 12 


0. 143 
0.556 
0.030 
0.318 


0.301 

0.065 

0.163 

-0. 145 


0.205 

0.110 
0.075 
0^145 


35-64 

65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.005 
-0.013 


0.004 
O.OIE 


0.221 
0.275 


0.075 
-0.148 


0.042 
0. 136 


35-64 
45-94 


JIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.011 
-0.014 


0.004 
O.OIZ 


0.008 
0.242 


0. 142 
-0. 140 


0.06 1 
0.137 


35-64 
45-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.014 
-0.014 


0.004 
O.OIZ 


o.oot 

0.237 


0.200 
-0. 141 


0.062 
0. 136 



SEX: FEMALE 

EVENT: ANGINA PECTORIS 

RISK FACTOR' CIGARETTES SMOKED (NUMBER PER DAY) 

PERSONS AT RISK' PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



( 



RISK 
FACTOR 

NONE 

I-IO 
1 1-20 
21-40 
41-90 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



35-44 AT EXAM 
PERSON ( OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



2532 

1314 

1371 

298 

22 

29 
5416 



45-54 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



5528 

1726 

2009 

622 

37 

37 
9959 



33 
5 

7 
2 



47 



55-44 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



7595 


100 


7 


1546 


14 


4 


1696 


20 


6 


602 


6 


5 


16 








38 








11513 


140 


6 



65-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



4843 


72 


7 


424 


7 


6 


54 8 


1 1 


10 


172 


1 


3 










19 








4248 


91 


7 



7 5-84 AT EXAM 
RISK PERSON i OF ANNUAL 
FACTOR EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



35-64 COMBINED 
t OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



45-94 COMBINED 
• OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



NONE 

I-IO 
I 1-20 
21-40 
41-90 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



AGE AT 
EXAM 

35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 

35-64 
65-94 

35-64 
65-94 



1710 


28 


8 


137 


3 


11 


84 








16 














- 


4 








1951 


31 


8 



UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 



8IVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 



COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 

0.017 
-0.022 
-0.009 
-0.004 
-0.066 



-0.019 
-0.009 



35-44 
65-94 



MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 



-O.QIO 
-0.010 



-0.004 
-0.006 



117 

4 
2 




135 

20 

29 

8 





123 



192 


LOGISTIC 


REGRESSIONS 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


0.041 
0.017 
0.010 
0.014 
0.066 


0.680 
0. 196 

0.354 
0.788 
0.320 


0.008 
0.014 


0.024 
0.518 


0.008 
0.014 


0.216 
0.468 


0.008 
0.014 


0.407 
0.652 



STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 



-0 

-0 
-0 
-0 


167 
223 

085 
030 
335 


-0 
-0 


189 
044 


-0 
-0 


lOI 
073 


-0 
-0 


042 
045 



10) 

10 

1 1 

1 




123 



STD 
SE 

0.404 
0. 173 
0.092 
0.110 
0.337 



084 
099 



08 1 
100 



0.082 
0. 100 



153 



TABLE 7-14 0ATE«Z7NOV«S 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
BY AGE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAM' FRAMINGHAM STUDY 30-YEAR FOLlOWUP 

SEX: MALE- 
EVENT: ANGINA PECTORIS 

RISK FACTOR: ALBUMIN IN URINE, DEFINITE 
PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



35-4'» AT EXAM 



RISK 
FACTOR 


PERSON 
EXAMS 


1 OF 
EVENTS 


ANNUAL 
RATE 


NO 
YES 


'tS66 

70 


20 

1 


2 

7 


UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 


36- 
'('472 



21 



2 


RISK 
FACTOR 


75- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


84 AT EXAM 

1 OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


NO 
YES 


989 
25 


9 




5 




UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 


3 

1017 



9 






45-54 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



7599 
99 



26 
7724 



78 
2 




SO 



5 

10 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

32 
7 




39 



55-64 AT EXAM- 65-74 AT EXAM 

PERSON I OF ANNUAL PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



7838 
134 



27 
8049 



148 

1 




149 



35-64 COMBINED 
t OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



246 

4 




250 



3792 
115 



6 
3913 



60 

2 




62 



65-94 COMBINED 
• QF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



71 
2 




73 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 




COEFFICIENT 


SE 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 


STO 


EXAM 




OF RISK FACTOR 


COEFFICIENT 




COEFFICIENT 


SE- 


35-44 




1.147 


1.032 


0.266 


0.14S 


S.129 


45-54 




0.687 '1 ,. 


0.723 


0.342 


0.077 


0.08Z 


55-64 




-1-259 . |!!,;;i/ 


1.006 


0.211 


-0.188 


0.151 


65-74 




0.096 ' .;i';-:'''- 


0.725 


0.395 


0.016 


0.123 


75-84 




' ^ ,' 


- 


- 


- 


— 


85-94 




\ 










35-64 


UNIVARIATE 


-0.093 ; ■'■,:;! ■ 


0.507 


0.854 


-0.012 


0.0S6 


65-94 


UNIVARIATE 


-0.082 ■ ■:;■' 


0.722 


0.910 


-0.014 


0.122 


35-64 


BIVARIATE 


-0.225 


0.508 


0.658 


-0.030 


0.067 


65-94 


BIVARIATE 


-0.078- 


0.722 


0.914 


-0.013 


0.122 


35-64 


MULTIVARIATE 


-0.887* 


0.590 


0.133 


-0.116 


0.077 


65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 


-0.238 


0.728 


0.744 


-0.040 


0.124 



SEX' FEMALE 

EVENT: ANGINA PECTORIS . 

RISK FACTOR: ALBUMIN IN URINE. DEFINITE 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 

FACTOR 



NO 
YES 



35-44 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



SS5S 

Z2S 



45-54 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



9656 

278 



43 
3 



5S-64 AT EXAM 65-74 AT EXAM 

PERSON i OF ANNUAL PERSON I QF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



11263 
225 



136 

4 



61 18 
120 



89 

2 



UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



38 
5616 



25 
9959 



47 



25 
I15U 




140 





91 



RISK 
FACTOR 



NO 
YES 



UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



AGE AT 
EXAM 

35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 

35-64 
65-94 

35-64 
65-94 

35-64 
65-94 



75-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS. RATE 



1904 
38 



9 
1951 



UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 



BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 



31 





31 



85-9.4 AT EXAM 
PERSON i OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



35-64 COMBINES 
• OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 

1.787 
0.892 
0.393 
0.138 




-0 



460 
132 



MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 



.673 
.182- 



0.295' 
-0.461 



120 
3 


183 
8 



12J 


1 
192 


LOGISTIC 


REORESSIONS 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


1.120 
0.600 
0.512 
0.721 


0.111 
0.137 
0.443 
0.848 


9.161 
0.717 


0.205 
0.800 


0.365 
0.717 


0.065 
0.300 


0.3« 
0.728 


0.450 
0.527 



65-94 COMBINED 
t OP AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



121 
2 





123 



OEFFICIENT 








352 

147 
054 
019 



-0 


075 

025 



-0 


109 

025 


. 
-0 


048 
064 



STB 

SE 

0.22O 
0.099 
0.071 
0.099 



S.059 
0.099 



0.059 
0.099 



0.063 

0.100 



- 154 - 



TABLE 7-15 DATE=27N0V85 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
BY AGE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAMi FRAMINGHAM STUDY JO-YEAR FOLLOHUP 

SEX I MALE 

EVENT 1 ANGINA PECTORIS 

RISK FACTOR: HEART ENLARGEMENT BY X-RAY 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 
FACTOR 

NO 

MILD 
DEFINITE 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



Z5-^<i AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



4063 
185 
219 

5 
<4<i72 



16 
<< 
1 


21 



2 
11 

2 


2 



«5-5't AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS. EVENTS RATE 



63SJ 
650 
687 

772<i 



60 
11 



1 
80 



125 

5 



55-6'i AT EXAM 
PERSON f OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

5967 103 9 

962 21 II 

1119 25 11 



1 
8049 




149 



65-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON » OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



2584 
578 
751 


3913 



36 




62 



7 

7 

12 



RISK 
FACTOR 

NO 

MILD 
DEFINITE 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



75-84 AT EXAM 85-94 AT EXAM 

PERSON » OF ANNUAL PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



589 
178 
250 


1017 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFK 
OF RISK 1 


35-44 

45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 




0.468 
0.192 
0.145 
0.261 
-0.165 


35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.273 
0.185 


35-64 
65-94 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.162 
0.194 


35-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.107 
0.160 



29 

5 
5 


179 
36 
34 


5 

10 

8 



39 


1 
250 


SO 
6 


LOGISTIC 


REGRESSIONS 




SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 




0.334 

0.165 
0.107 
0.148 
0.419 


0.162 
0.245 
0.178 
0.078 
0.693 




0.086 
0.138 


0.001 
0.178 




0.087 
0.138 


9.064 
0.159 




0.093 
0.145 


0.251 
0.269 





35-64 COMBINED 
« OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



6 

10 
7 



65-94 COMBINED 
• OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



48 
6 



STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 

0.218 
0.117 
0.104 
0.207 

-0.140 



0.174 
0.150 



0.103 
0.157 



43 

10 
20 


73 



0.063 
0.1 Z9 



7 

7 

10 



STD 
SE 

0.156 
0.101 
0.077 
0.118 
0.354 



0.055 
0.111 



0.056 
0.111 



0.059 
0.117 



7 

7 

10 



SEX" FEMALE 

EVENT" ANGINA PECTORIS 

RISK FACTOR" HEART ENLARGEMENT SY X-RAY 

PERSONS AT RISK" PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 

FACTOR 

HO 

MUD 
DEFINITE 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



35-44 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



5164 
199 
245 

8 

5616 



45-54 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



8017 
943 
993 

6 
9959 



31 
5 

11 


47 



55-64 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



7522 
1769 
2218 



11513 



67 
26 
47 


140 



4 

7 

11 


6 



65-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



3191 34 

1150 12 

1907 45 




6248 



a 

91 



5 

5 
12 



RISK 
FACTOR 

NO 

MILD. 
DEFINITE 

UNKNOHK 
TOTAL 



75-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



702 7 

373 6 

S76 18 




1951 




31 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

32 

3S 
61 



123 



35-64 COMBINED 
t OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



102 
31 
59 


192 



65-94 COMBINED 
t OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



41 
18 
£4 

itl 



5 

6 
11 



5 

6 
11 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUe 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


- STD 
SE 


35-44 

45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 




0.766 
0.S15 
0.442 
0.414 
0.356 


0.590 
0.176 
0.095 
0.118 
0.217 


0.194 
0.003 
0.001 
0.001 
0.100 


0.338 
0.32S 
0.35Z 
0.3£4 
0.319 


0.261 

0.112 
0.076 
0.104 
0.194 


35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.634 
0.401 


0.081 
0.103 


0.001 
0.001 


0.442 
0.35S 


0.056 
0.092 


35-64 
65-94 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.448 
0.423. 


0.084 
0.104 


0.001 
0.001 


0.312 
0.37S 


0.059 
0.093 


35-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.297' 
0.371 


0.092 
0.109 


0.001 
. 0.001 


■ 0.207 
0.331 


0.064 
0.097 



155 



TABLE 7-15 



DAIT-OSAPRSS 



AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAIi 
IT AGE AND LEVEL OF RISX FACTOR AT £;(AMi FRAMIHOMAM STUDY JO-TEAR FOLIOHUP 

SE^: MALE 

EVENT: ANGINA PECTORIS 

RISK FACTOR; LEFT VENTRICULAR MTPERTROPHT BT ELECTROCARDIOGRAM 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONART HEART DISEASE 



J5-*« AT EXAn 
RISK PERSON » OF ANNUAL 
FACTOR IXATi EVENTS RATE 



<i5-5<i AT EXAM }5-6« if EXAM 

PERSON • OF ANNUAL PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAfIS EVENTS RATE E;(AnS ivcHTS RATE 



45-7A AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



NO 

iORDER 

DEFINITE 

UNKNOHN 
TOTAL 



«366 

7S 
29 





21 





21 



7«97 
1J2 
95 


7724 



71 
i 
3 


80 



769S 
210 
1<<6 



ao«9 




149 



9 

2 

24 



370J 
90 
120 


S9IS 



60 
2 



62 



rS-«* AT EXAM 
RISK PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
FACTOR EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



8 5-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



53-44 COnstHEO 
I OF AOE- 

EVEHTS CxuOE ADJUSTED 



«3-94 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



NO 

SORDER 
DEFINITE 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



949 

37 
31 


1017 



34 
2 
3 


39 




250 



6 
5 

19 



6 
5 

16 



7 1 
2 




73 



lOCISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 

35-44 
4S-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-44 
85-94 

35-64 
65-94 

;35-64 
^J-94 

135-64 
65-94 



COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 



0.636 

0.319 

-0.603 



UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 



JIVARIATE 
tlVARIATE 



MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 



0.466 
-0.750 



0.374 
-0.744 



0. 172 
-0.972 



SE 

COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


3.26« 
0.210 
0.368 


0.017 
U. 130 
1).2S« 


0. 162 

0.09: 

-0.225 


0.068 
0.065 
0.211 


0.165 
0.578 


0.005 
0. 195 


0. 125 
-0.283 


0.044 
0.218 


0. i6« 
0.577 


0.024 
0, 197 


0. 100 
-0.281 


0.044 
0.218 


0. 178 
0.583 


0.333 
0.095 


. 0.046 
; -0.347 


0.048 
0.220 



SEX: FEMALE 

EVENT: ANGINA PECTORIS 

RISK FACTOR: LEFT VENTRICULAR NYPERTRflPHT BT ELECTROCARDIOGRAM, 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 
FACTOR 

NO 

BORDER 
DEFINITE. 

UNKNOHN 
TOTAL 



RISK 
FACTOR 

NO 

BORDER 
DEFINITE 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



PERSON 
EXAMS 

5543 
38 
15 


54 16 



35-44 AT EXAM 



I OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 



75-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1833 
49 
69 


t*5l 



8 

10 

7 



5« «T EXAM 

t OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 

44 2 

1 5 

2 19 



45- 

PERSON 
EXAMS 

9798 

107 

54 

9 
9959 



S5-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF AtmuiL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

lit 
6 
6 



55-44 AT EXAM 

PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



65-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANHUAl 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 




31 




123 



1 1157 
226 
150 


127 
5 
8 


4 
1 1 
27 




5966 
134 
148 


79 

5 
9 



1 1513 



140 


4 





6248 



91 


55- 
t OF 
EVENTS 


64 COMBINED 

AGE- 
CRUDE ADJUSTED 


65- 

• OF 
EVENTS 


94 C 

CR 


174 
6 
10 


3 
8 

23 




3 
7 
S 


igi 

4 
10 


/ 
1 1 
22 



192 


4 




3 



123 


7 



ACE- 
ADJUSTEB 



24 

7 



LOOISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AOE AT 
EXAM 

35-44 

«5-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 

35-44 
65-94 

35-44 
65-94 

35-44 
«i5-94 



UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 



BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 



COEFFICIENT 
SF RISK FACTOK 



1.029 
0.777 
0.767 
0.006 



MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 



973 
59 1 



804 
599 



0.449 
0. 544 



SE 

COEFFICIENT 


P-VAIUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
- SE 


0.354 
0. 177 
0. 178 
0.454 


0.004 
0.001 
0.001 
0-.990 


0, 184 
0.Z05 
0.:S4 
0. 002 


0, 064 
J47 
0.359 
150 


0. 137 
0. 144 


0.001 
O.DOI 


.207 
0.208 


333 
O.OSS 


0.160 
0. 144 


0.001 
0.001 


. 17 1 
0.21 1 


0,0 54 
0.058 


0. l85 
0. 172 


0.015 
0.002 


0.095 
0. 192 


0.039 
0.06 1 



- 156 - 



FACTOR 

110 

INCOtlPlETE 

COIIPLETE 

UNKIIOIIN 
TOTAL 



TABIE 7-17 DATE=12DEC85 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
Br AOE Alio LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAM; FRAMINGHAM STUDY 10-rEAR FOLLOUUP 

SEX: MALE 

EVENT: ANGINA PECTORIS 

RISX FACTOR: INTRAVENTRICULAR COtlDUCTION DEFECT (WITH ORS INTERVAL MORE THAN 11 SECOND) 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 

J5-44 AT EXAM «5-5« AT EXAM SS-*** AT EXAM 65-74 AT EXAM 

PERSON • OF ANNUAL PERSON I OF ANNUAL PERSON I OF ANNUAL PERSON i OF ANNUAL 
EXAIIS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



r 



<<li1 

27 5 
ii 

a 

4472 



19 2 

2 4 





21 2 



721 J 

65 


7724 



7« 5 

6 7 





SO s 



7386 
456 
207 


5049 



I J1 

14 




149 



9 
15 

10 



3566 
1!3 
164 


3913 



4t 
i 

6 


62 



7 
22 
18 



RISK 
FACTOR 

NO 

iNcoMPirre 

COIIPLETE 

UNKNOIIN 
lOTAL 



75-84 AT EXAM 85-94 AT EXAM 

PERSON • OF ANNUAL PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
tXAHS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



918 
21 
78 


1017 



31 

2 
6 


39 



35-«4 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVEIITS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



224 
22 


250 



65-94 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



57 
8 
8 


73 



i 
19 

16 



17 
16 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE IT 
EXAM 

35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 

35-64 
65-94 

35-64 
65-94 

35-64 
65-94 



UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 



BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 



COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 



MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 



181 
005 
232 
622 
146 



0.243 
0.56J 



0. 162 
0.578 



0.049 
0.576 



SE 

COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


0.663 
0.332 
0. 184 
0. 190 
0.550 


0.785 
0.990 
0.Z07 
0.001 
0.791 


0.054 
0.001 
0.089 
0.276 
0.080 


0. 196 
0.112 
0.1371 
0.084 
0.300 


0.163 
0.171 


0.135 
0.001 


0.081 
0.265 


0.QS4 
0.080 


0.160 
0. 172 


0.311 

o.oot 


0.054 
0.272 


0.053 
0.081 


0.177 
0.174 


0.781 
0.001 


0.016 

0.271 


0.059 
0.082 



SEX: FEMALE 

EVENT: ANGIN* PECTORIS 

RISK FACTOR: INTRAVENTRICULAR CONDUCTION DEFECT (WITH QRS INTERVAL MORE THAN 0.11 SECOND) 

PERSOHS AT risk: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



( 



RISK 
FACTOR 

NO 

INCOMPLETE 
CCIIPLETE 

UIIKNOHN 
TOTAL 



35-44 AT EXAM 45-54 AT EXAM 55-64 AT EXAM 

PERSON I OF ANNUAL PERSON t OF ANNUAL PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAIIS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



5529 
75 
12 


56 I 6 





(3 





9771 

144 

44 


9959 




47 



2 

3 
23 



11183 
187 
143 

a 

11513 



130 
2 
8 


140 



6 
5 

28 



65-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON < OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

6027 87 7 
115 1 4 
106 3 14 



a 

6248 




91 



RISIC 

FACTOR 

NO 

INCOMPLETE 

COMPLETE 

UNKNOVIN 
TOTAL 



AGE AT 
EXAM 

35-44 

45-54 

55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 



75-84 AT EXAM 85-94 AT EXAM 

PERSON I OF ANNUAL PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAJIS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1847 
56 
68 



35-44 
65-94 



5S-64 
65-94 



S5-44 
65-94 




31 



COEFFICIENT 
Of RISK FACTOR 



35-64 COMBINED 
t OF ACE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 



BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 



MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 



,293 

059 
,727 
,243 
,056 



976 
233 



814 
242 



711 
217 



117 
I 

5 


177 

5 

10 



125 



192 


LOOISTtC 


REGRESSIONS 


se 

COEFFICieiT 


P-V*LUE 


0.623 

0.367 
0.189 
0.300 
0.446 


0.001 

a. 004 

0.301 
0.417 
0.901 


0.162 
0.237 


0.901 
0.325 


0.162 
0.237 


0.001 
0.308 


0.178 
0.239 


0.001 
0.364 



3 

6 

25 



3 

6 

20 



65-94 COMBINED 
• OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



116 
3 




123 



7 
10 
I I 



NOARDIZEO 
FFICIENT 


STB 


0.337 
0.188 
0.184 
0.070 
0.022 




0.392 

0.06 5 
0.048 
0.087 
0.173 


0.204 
0.074 




0.034 
0.075 


0.170 
0.077 




0.034 
0.075 


0.148 

0.069 




0.037 
0.076 



157 - 



TABLE 7-U DATE«27N0V85 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
BY AGE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAMi FRAMINGHAM STUDY 30-TEAR FQLLOHUP 

SEXi MALE 

EVENT: ANGINA PECTORIS 

RISK FACTOR: DEFINITE NONSPECIFIC T-HAVE OR ST-SEGMENT ABNORMALITY BY ELECTROCARDIOGRAM 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 
FACTOR 



NO 
YES 



35-'i'» AT EXAM 45-54 AT EXAM 

PERSON « OF ANNUAL PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



EXAMS 



43«Z 

no 



18 
3 



2 
14 



7ISZ 
372 



71 
9 



5 

12 



55-64 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



7462 
SS7 



130 
19 



65-74 AT EXAM 



PERSON 
EXAMS 



3472 
441 



• OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 



51 
11 



7 
12 



UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 




4472 




21 



9 
7724 




SO 




8049 




149 




3913 







RISK 
FACTOR 



NO 

YES 



UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



AGE AT 
EXAM 

35-44 
"15-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-54 
85-94 

35-64 
65-94 

35-64 
65-94 

35-64 
45-94 



75-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON « OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



S30 
187 




1017 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



COEFFICIEHT 
OF RISK FACTOR 

1 .912 
0.933 
0.635 
0.540 



35-64 COMBINED 
• OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 



BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 



MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 



950 
391 



,768 
,414 . 



0.53S • 
0.302 



28 
11 


219 
31 



39 



250 


LOGISTIC 


REGRESSIONS 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


0.631 
0.358 
0.249 
0.336 


0.002 

• 0.009 

0.011 

0.108 


0.19S 
0.309 


0.001 
0.206 


0.196 
0.311 


0.001 
0.183 


0.2S3 
0.314 


0.009 
0.337 



6 
14 



65-94 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



STANDARDIZES 
COEFFICIENT 

0.296 
0.200 
0.165 
0.171 



0.212 
0.131 



0.172 

a. 139 



8.119 
0.101 



60 
13 




73 



7 
10 



STD. 

SE 

0.098 
0.077 
0.D65 
0.106 



0.044 
0.103 



0.044 
0.104 



0.049 
0.105 



7 
II 



SEXi FEMALE 

EVENT: ANGINA PECTORIS 

RISK FACTOR: DEFINITE NONSPECIFIC T-HAVE OR ST-SEGMENT ABNORMALITY BY ElECTROCAROIOQRAM 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 

FACTOR 



HO 
YES 



UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



35-44 AT EXAM 45' 

PERSON t OF ANNUAL PERSON 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS 



5517 
99 




5616 



•54 AT EXAM 

• OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 



9543 
416 




9959 



44 
3 




47 



3S-64 AT EXAM 65-74 AT EXAH 

PERSON • OF ANNUAL PERSON » OF ANNUAL 

EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



10647 
866 



123 
17 



6 
10 



AMS 


EVENTS 


RATE 


5528 
728 


71 
20 


6 
1 4 



6245 



91 


7 



RISK 
FACTOR 



NO 
YES 



UNKNOWN 

TOTAL 



AGE AT 
EXAM 

35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-54 
85-94 

35-64 
65-94 

35-64 
65-94 

35-64 
65-94 



75-54 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS- RATE 



1632 
319 



19S1 



23 
8 




31 



7 
13 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



35-64 COMBINED 
e OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 



0.450 
0.538 
0.787 
0.588 



UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 



BIVARIATE 
8IVARIATE 



MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 



0.780 
0.711 



0.481 
0.729 ■ 



0.315 • 
0.683 



97 
26 


172 
20 



123 



192 


LOOISTIC 


REGRESSIONS 


se 

COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


^ 


- 


0.399 
0.261 
0.256 
0.415 


0.452 
0.039 
0.002 
0.157 


0.255 

0.218 


0.001 
0.001 


0.240 
0.219 


0.045 
0.001 


0.248 
0.220 


0.203 
0.002 



65-94 COMBINED 
« OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



93 
2S 



9 
123 



STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 



0.090 
0.142 
0.251 
0.217 



0.172 
0.237 



0.106 
0.243 



0.069 
0.229 



ST3 
SE 



0.120 
0.069 
0.082 
0.154 



0.052 
0.073 



0.053 
0.073 



0.035 
0.073 



7 
13 



- 158 



RISC 
FACTOR 
7<i-l 19 
120-139 
140-159 
160-179 
180-300 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



TABLE 8-1 3ATE.13;'AY85 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER IQOO PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAH 
BT ACE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAM" FRAMINCHAM STUDY JO-YEAR FOLLOWUP 

SEXi MALE 

EVENTi ANGINA PECTORIS UNCOMPLICATED 

RISK FACTQRi SYSTOLIC BLOOD PRESSURE. FIRST EXAMINER CMM HO) 

PERSONS AT RISK- PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



35-^* AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



I22J 

2liS 

S<tl 

191 

52 


4472 



45-54 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1769 

34 17 

1732 

56 7 

239 


7724 



6 
IS 
M 
6 
3 


46 



55-64 AT EXAM 65-74 AT EXAM 

PERSON t OF ANNUAL PERSON i OF ANNUAL 

EXAMS Events rate exams events rate 



1440 

3166 

2090 

916 

437 


B049 



13 
35 
30 
20 




109 



5 

6 

7 

I I 

13 



54» 
1341 
1 194 
552 
278 


39IJ 



5 

12 
15 
7 
3 


42 



c 



RISK 
FACTOR 

74- 1 19 
120-139 
140-159 
160-179 
lSO-300 

UNKNOMN 
TOTAL 



75-J4 AT EXAM 
PERSON i OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



120 

345 

315 

153 

S4 


1917 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

7 
15 




39 



35-64 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CkUOE ADJUSTED 



20 
56 
47 
26 
14 


163 



2 
3 
S 
3 

10 



65-94 COMBINED 
« OF AGE- 
EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 

5 4 - 4 

15 4 4 

18 6 6 

8 6 5 

3 4 4 



49 5 5 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AQE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
PP RISK FACTOR 


SE 

COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STO 

SE 


35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 




0.017 

0.017 
O.OIS 

0.007 
-0.002 


0.018 
0. 006 
0.004 
0.006 
0.017 


0.327 
0.008 
0.001 
0.260 
0.895 


0.29 1 
0.330 
0.323 
0. 163 
-0.051 


0.297 
0.125 
0.083 
0. 145 
0.385 


35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.019 . 
0.006 


O.OOJ 
0.00« 


0.001 
0.321 


0.394 
0.135 


0.0«3 

a. Hi 


35-64 
45-94 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.01! 
0.006 


O.0O3 
0.006 


0.001 
0.317 


0.30S 
0. 136 


O.OiS 

a. Mi 


35-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.012 
0.007 


0.1)03 
0.006 


0.001 
0.235 


0.241 
0. 170 


0.071 
■ 0.I4J 



SEX" FEMALE 

EVENT" ANGINA PECTORIS UNCOMPLICATED 

RISK FACTOR: SYSTOLIC BLOOD PRESSURE, FIRST EXAMINER (MM HO) 

PERSONS AT RISK" PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



c 



RISK 
FACT 08 

74-1 19 
120-139 
140-159 
160-179 
180-300 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



55-44 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 

EXA^S EVENTS RATE 



2493 
2244 

673 

156 

50 


56 16 



45-54 AT EXAil 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 

EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



2714 


7 


1 


3982 


10 


t 


2053 


10 


2 


768 


6 


4 


442 


7 


8 








- 


9959 


40 


2 



„^» 55-»4 .f EXAM 65-74 AT EXAM 

PERSON . JF ANNUAL PERSON » OF JNNUAL 
EXAMS EicNlS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



'979 
'0 56 

.025 
1560 
893 


11513 



1 I 
29 
32 
29 
17 


1 18 



3 
4 
5 

9 

10 



647 
1747 
2013 
1 155 

686 


6248 



3 
19 
26 

9 
15 


72 



2 
5 

6 
4 
II 



RISK 
FACTOR 

I 74-119 
' 120-139 
I 140-159 
! 160-179 
180-300 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



AOE AT 
EXAM 

35-44 
.45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 

35-64 
65-94 

35-64 
65-94 

35-64 
45-94 



75-84 AT EXAM J5-94 AT EXAM 

PERSON I OF ANNUAL PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



S3S 


1 


4 


465 


7 


8 


626 


9 


7 


45! 


9 


10 


276 


4 


7 








« 


1951 


30 


8 



35-64 C0M8INE0 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 



UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 

BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 

MULTIVARIATE 
MOITIVARIAIE 



025 

021 
017 
010 
006 



022 

009 



018 
009 



0.0 14 
0.006 



8 

38 
29 
51 
17 


18 
42 
44 
35 

24 



123 



163 


LOGISTIC 


REGRESSIONS 


SE 

COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


0.018 
0.005 
0.003 
0.005 
0.007 


o.isa 

0.001 
0.001 
0.032 
0.384 


0.002 
0.004 


0.001 
0.013 


0.003 
0.004 


0.001 
O.OIJ 


0.003 
0.004 


0.001 
0.I2S 



65-94 COMBINED 
I OF »0E- 

EVEMTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



2 
I 
5 

7 



STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 



429 
470 
429 
236 
152 



0.525 
0.230 



0.429 
0.251 



0.325 
0. 145 



4 
26 
55 
IS 
20 


103 



3 
6 
7 
5 

10 



STD 
SE 



304 
106 
074 
no 
175 



0.054 
0.092 



0.060 
0.093 



0.069 
0.096 



z 

6 
6 
5 

to 



159 



TABLE 8-2 



DATE-ISMAYSS 



.AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
BT AGE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAM: FRAMINGHAM STUDY 30-YEAR FOLLOWUP 

SEX: MALE 

EVENT: ANGINA PECTORIS UNCOMPLICATED 

RISK FACTOR: DIASTOLIC BLOOD PRESSURE, FIRST EXAMINER (MM HG) 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



S5-<i<i AT EXAM 
RISK PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
FACTOR EXAMS EVEWTS RATE 



HS-S't AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



55-6'i AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



65-7H AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



20-74 

rs-s-j 

45-94 

95-104 

105-160 

UNKNOHN 
TOTAL 



RISK 
FACTOR 

20-74 
75-S4 
45-94 
95-104 
tOS-160 

UNKNOMN 
TOTAL 



1012 
1604 
1 187 
499 
170 


4472 



75-44 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 









2 


1 


2 


1 


2 


2 


2 


6 





_ 


4 


1 



422 

J31 

204 

44 

16 


1017 



1474 


8 


Z 


2766 


12 


2 


2062 


1 1 


1 


1008 


10 


5 


410 


5 


6 








. 


7724 


46 


5 



S5-94 AT EXAM 

PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

22 
12 

5 





. 
59 



1447 
2445 
1964 
942 
4 1 1 


20 
26 
J1 
22 
10 


5 

5 

4 

I 1 

12 




1225 
1323 
893 
343 
129 


9 4 
17 6 
9 5 
6 9 
1 4 



8049 



109 


7 





5913 



42 5 


JS- 
1 OF 

EVENTS 


-64 COMBINED 65- 
AGE- 1 OF 
CRUDE ADJUSTED EVENTS 


-94 COMBI 
CRUDE 


28 
40 
44 
J4 
17 


5 
3 
4 
7 
9 




3 
3 
5 
7 
8 


12 

20 

10 

6 

1 


4 
6 
5 
4 

J 



163 


4 




4 



49 


5 



ACE- 
ADJUSTED 

4 
6 
4 
7 
3 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



ACE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTaR 


3E 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
8S-94 




0.067 
0.023 
0.024 
0.017 
-0.01J 


0.024 
0.012 
0.007 
0.012 
0.035 


0.004 
0.052 
0.001 
0. 147 
0.683 


0.760 
0.267 
0.296 
0.210 
-0. 157 


0.Z67 
0.137 

0.088 

a. 145 

0.584 


55-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.027 . 
0.015 


0.006 
O.OM 


0.001 
0-171 


0.320 
0. 186 


0.071 
0.156 


J5-64 
65-94 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0,027 
0.015 


0.006 
0.011 


0.001 
0. 198 


0.515 
0.178 


0.070 
0.158 


35-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.022 
0.016 


0.006 
0.012 


0.00 1 
0. 174 


0.264 
0.198 


0.075 
0. 145 



SEXi FEMALE 

EVENT: ANGINA PECTORIS UNCOMPLICATED 

RISK FACTOR: DIASTOLIC BLOOD PRESSURE, FIRST EXAMINER (MM HG) 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 
FACTOR 

20-74 
75-44 
45-94 
95-104 
105-160 

UNKNOMN 
TOTAL 



5S-4'i AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



2164 

2050 

947 

324 

I 1 I 




56 16 



I 

1 

1 1 

2 3 




5 



45-54 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



2639 

354 1 

256 1 

926 

492 


9959 



55- 

PERSOII 
EXAMS 

2969 
3855 
2440 
1272 
579 


11515 



.. AT EXAM 
. uF ANNUAL 
EVcliTS RATE 



24 
33 
35 
15 
15 


1 14 



4 
4 
6 
5 
15 



65-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON » OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1831 

2135 

1439 

600 

245 


6248 



20 

22 

20 

4 

6 


72 



5 
5 
7 
5 
12 



RISK 

I FACTOR 

I 

' 29-74 

75-84 

85-94 

95-104 

105-160 

UNKNOHN 
TOTAL 



!ACE AT 
EXAM 

55-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 

55-64 
65-94 

35-64 
65-94 

35-64 
65-94 



7 5-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



724 


7 


5 


596 


12 


10 


445 


10 


1 1 


146 


1 


3 


42 





U 








« 


951 


50 


8 



COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 

0.052 
0.029 

0.024 
0.007 
0.011 



UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 



BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 



MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 



034 
.004 



050 
004 



0.021 
0.004 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 

EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



55-64 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- . 

EVENTS CUtOe. J^SJIUSTED 



55 
45 
20 

7 



34 
43 
45 
Zl 
20 



25 



l«3 


LOGISTIC 


REGRESSIONS 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


0.028 
0.011 
0.007 
0.010 
0.015 


0.067 
0.007 
0.001 
0.465 
0.470 


0,005 
0.008 


00 1 
0.545 


0.0O6 
0.008 


0,001 
533 


0.006 
0.008 


001 
0.628 



65-94 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE AOJUSTEir 



27 

55 

50 

5 

6 


105 



STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 



574 
359 
548 
085 
150 



410 
092 



56 1 
094 



257 

046 



5 

6 
8 

5 
1 1 



STD 

SE 

0.315 
0. 155 
0.082 
0. I 16 
0. 180 



066 
097 



068 
098 



074 
096 



160 



RISK 

fACTOR 



TABLE 8-3A DATE-04SEP85 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
BY AGE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAM' FRAMINGHAM STUDT 10-YEAR FOLLQWUP 

SEX- MALE 

EVENT: ANGINA PECTORIS UNCOMPLICATED 

RISK FACTOR: HYPERTENSION VaTH ANTIHYPERTENSIVE THEATMEVT 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



i5-<,<t AT EXAM "iS' 

PERSON » OF ANNUAL PERSON 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS 



•S-i AT EXAM 

t OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RAT£ 



55-6<. Al EXAM 65-7'* AT EXAM 

PERSON » liF ANNUAL PERSON • OF ANNUAL 

EXAMS Events rate exams events rate 



c 



NO 

BORDER 
■DEFINITE 
TREATED 

UNKNOHN 
TOTAL 



2651 

1301 

500 

20- 


41*72 



1122 

2205 

1 139 

258 


772"* 



17 

16 

10 

3 


1*6 



3782 

2299 

1266 

702 


80'*9 



36 
23 
16 


109 



4 
8 
9 
II 



1516 

1252 

552 

593 


3913 



13 
1'* 




'*2 



RISK 
FACTOR 

NO 

BORDER 
DEFINITE 
TREATED 

UNKNOHN 
TOTAL 



75-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



373 
333 
123 
188 


1017 



85-9'* AT EXAM 

PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

18 
1 1 

3 

7 


J9 



IS-i', COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



65-94 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



55 


3 


3 


15 


4 


4 


54 


5 


5 


18 


6 


6 


35 


6 


6 


8 


6 


6 


19 


10 


7 


8 


5 


5 





. 







_ 




63 


4 


4 


49 


5 


5 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


35-44 
45-54 

55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 




0.417 
0.417 
0.398 
0.213 
-0.124 


0.458 
0. ISO 
0. 1 15 
0. 189 
0.468 


0.362 
0.020 
0.001 
0.259 
0.791 


0.290 
0.320 
0.324 
0. 174 
-0. 102 


0.318 
5, 138 
d.094 
0. 155 
0.383 


35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.495 
0. 163 


0.095 
0. 175 


0.001 
0.350 


0.38S 
0. 134 


0.074 
0.143 


35-64 
65-94 


BIVARIATE 
8IVARIATE 


0.395" 
0. 165- 


0.095 
0.175 


0.001 
0.344 


0.307 

0.13S 


0.074 
0. 143 


35-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.325 
0. 184 


0. 100 
0.177 


n not 
U..>UO 


0.253 •■ 
0.151 


0.078 
0.145 



SeXi FEMALE 

EVENT' ANGINA PECTORIS UNCOMPLICATED 

RISK FACTOR' HYPERTENSION VITE AOTIHTPERTENSIVE TT!EA-P^TOT 

PERSONS AT RISK. PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DlsSixW^ 



r 



35-4"* AT EXAM 
RISK PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
fACTOR EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



45-5^ AT EXAM 
PERSON » OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



55-»4 kT EXAM 65-74 AT EXAM 

PERSON k Jr ANNUAL PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS E.£HTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



HO 

BORDER 

DEFINITE 

TREATED 

UNKNOl-lH 
TOTAL 



4250 

1001 

316 

49 


56 16 



5622 

2579 

1 166 

592 


9959 



11 
12 
10 

7 


40 



4838 
3282 
1835 
1508 


11513 



27 
4 I 
29 
21 


1 18 



1767 
1903 
1035 
1543 


6248 



I 1 
18 
13 
30 


72 



3 

5 

6 

10 



RISK 
FACTOR 

I NO 

BORDER 
'DEFINITE 
TREATED 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



AGE AT 

EXAM 

35-44 

45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
7 5-84 
85-94 



75-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



402 
575 
37 1 
603 


1951 



35-64 
65-94 



35-64 
65-94 



35-64 
45-94 



UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 



BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 



6 
9 
6 
9 


30 



COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 

0.944 
0.799 
0.473 
0.514 
0.011 



0.742 
0.386 



0.556 
0.388 



35-64 CUrlBINED 
• OF ACE- 

EVENTS CKLLDE ADJUSTED 



65-94 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENtS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 



0.430 
0.301 



31 
28 
21 
43 


40 
55 

40 

zs 


a 

123 



1«3 


LOGISTIC 


REGRESSIONS 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


0.542 
0.191 
0. 112 
0. 161 
0.234 


0.082 
0.001 
0.001 
0.001 
0.962 


0.094 
0. 132 


0.001 
0.003 


0.097 
0. 133 


0.001 
0.003 


0. 103 
0. 134 


0.001 
0.025 



17 
27 
19 
40 


103 



STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 

0.553 
0.614 
0.395 
0.423 
0.009 



0.SS9 
0.3U 



0.441 
0.3 IS 



0.341 
0.247 



STD 
SE 

0.318 
0. 147 
0.094 
0. 133 
0. 184 



0.075 
0. 108 



0.077 
0. 109 



0.082 
0. I 10 



c 



161 



TABLE 8-JB DATE=27N0VS5 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
BY AGE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAM" FRAMINGHAM STUDY 30-YEAR FOLLOWUP 

SEX' MALE 

EVENT: ANGINA PECTORIS UNCOMPLICATED 

RISK FACTOR: HYPERTENSION IGNORING TREATMENT 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 
FACTOR 


35- 

PERSON 
EXAMS 


I") AT EXAM 

1 OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


PERSON 
EXAMS 


5^ AT EXAM 

1 OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


55- 

PERSON 
EXAMS 


61 AT EXAM 

« OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


65-71 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


AT EXAM 
t OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


NO 

MILD 

DEFINITE 


2653 
1310 

509 


<4 

2 
2 


1 

1 
2 


41 5<» 
228'i 
1236 


17 2 

18 ■* 
11 4 


3909 
2583 
1557 


36 
12 
31 


5 

3 

10 


1631 

1199 

783 


13 1 
13 6 
11 7 


UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 








1 



7721 



16 3 



8019 



109 


7 



3913 



12 5 


RISK 
FACTOR 


75- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


«* AT EXAM 

t OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


85- 

PERSON 
EXAMS 


94 AT EXAM 

1 OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


35- 
1 OF 
EVENTS 


61 COMBINED 65- 
AGE- t OF 
CRUDE ADJUSTED EVENTS 


94 COMBINED 

AGE- 
CRUDE ADJU 


NO 

MILD 

DEFINITE 


<»12 
<il8 
147 


2 


2 

5 
3 


21 

15 

3 




57 
62 
44 


3 
5 

7 


3 
5 
6 


15 
22 

12 


1 
6 
6 


UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



1017 




7 


3 



39 





1«3 


4 


1 



19 


5 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


35-11 
15-51 
.55-61 
65-71 
75-81 




0.126 
0.393 
0.396 
0.291 
0.114 


0.159 
0.183 
0.119 
0.200 
0.508 


0.353 
0.032 
0.001 
0.147 
0.777 


0.294 
0.296 
0.305 
0.220 
0.106 


0.317 
0.137 
0.092 
0.151 
0.373 


85-91 














35-61 
65-91 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.164 
0.276 


0.097 
0.187 


0.001 

0.140 


0.318 
0.207 


0.073 
0.140 


35-61 
: 65-91 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.392 
0.275- 


0.098 
0.187 


0.001 
0.141 


0.294 
0.206 


0.073 
0.140 


1 35-61 
1 65-91 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


o.sia' 

0.307 


0.104 
0.190 


0.003 
0.107 


0.2SS 
0.251 


0.07S 
0.143 



SEXi FEMALE 

EVEHTi ANGINA PECTORIS UNCOMPLICATED 

RISK FACTOR: HYPERTENSION IGNORING TREATMENT 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 
FACTOR 

NO 

HUD 

DEFINITE 

UNKNOMN 
TOTAL 



35-44 AT EXAM 
PERSON « OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



4272 

1016 

328 


5616 



45-54 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



5804 
2763 
1592 


9959 



11 1 

13 2 

13 5 



10 2 



55-64 AT EXAM 65-74 AT EXAM 

PERSON I OF ANNUAL PERSON » OF ANtiUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



5215 
3860 
2108 


11515 



30 3 

48 6 

40 8 



118 5 



203S 16 4 
2549 51 6 
1664 25 8 




6218 




72 



RISK 
FACTOR 

NS 

MILD 
DEFINITE 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



AGE AT 

EXAM 

55-41 
15-51 
55-61 
65-71 
75-81 
85-91 



75-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



507 
827 
617 


1951 



35-64 
65-94 



35-61 
65-94 



35-64 
65-94 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON < OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



6 

15 
9 


30 



COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 

0.995 
0.680 
0.526 
0.517 
0.07S 



35-64 COMBINED 
t OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 



BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 



MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 



0.734 
0.272 



0.568 

0.272- 



0.121 ■ 
0.181 



37 
45 
41 


46 
63 
54 


a 

123 



163 


LOOISTIC 


REGRESSIONS 


SE 

COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


0.548 
0.193 
0.116 
0.156 
0.244 


0.069 
0.001 
0.001 
0.04Z 
0.7S1 


0.096 
0.130 


0.001 
0.037 


0.099 
0.151 


0.001 
0.03S 


0.106 
0.133 


0.001 
0.174 



65-94 COMBINED 
» OF AGE- 

EVEHTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



22 
46 
35 


103 



STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 

0.568 
0.193 
0.109 
0.213 
0.059 



0.543 
0.208 



0.420 
0.208 



0.311 
0.139 



STD 
SE 

0.513 
0.110 
0.090 
0.119 
0.185 



0.071 
0.100 



0.073 
0.100 



0.079 
0.102 



- 162 - 



TABLE 8-4 



DATE-13MAY8 5 



RISK 
FACTOR 

SH-ZO* 
20S-234 
235-264 
265-29<i 
295-1 t2<i 

UNKNOMN 
TOTAL 



RISK 
FACTOR 



AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT P" 'S?,0 P^^ONS At RISK AT WM 
BY AGE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAHi FRAMINGHAM STUDY JO-TEAR FOLLOWUP 

sex: male 

EVENT: ANGINA PECTORIS UNCOMPLICATED 

RISK FACTOR! SERUM CHOLESTEROL „,^c.cc 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



55-4« AT EXAM ■<5-5't AT EXAM 

PERSON • OF ANNUAL PERSON i OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



55-4« AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



125J 
1247 
872 
475 
29 1 

334 
4472 



1 

I 

1 I 

2 2 

1 2 

2 3 
9 I 



1767 
2306 
1745 
1001 
557 

348 
7724 



1 

17 

14 

3 

t 

3 

46 



75-84 AT EXAM S5-94 AT EXAM 

PERSON I OF ANNUAL PERSON I OF ANNUAL 

EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



2255 

2405 

1889 

918 

454 

123 
8049 



20 

28 
30 



3 
109 



4 

6 
8 
10 
1 1 

12 
7 



6 5-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1234 


7 


3 


117 1 


13 


6 


873 


1 1 


6 


428 


5 


6 


191 


6 


16 


16 








3913 


42 


5 



35-64 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



65-94 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



84-204 
205-234 
235-264 
265-294 
295-1 124 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



390 

332 

177 

96 

22 


1017 



17 

1 1 

S 

i 



39 



zz 

Hi 

«s 

. 23 
19 

S 



9 

16 
13 

5 
6 


49 



3 
5 

6 

5 

14 


5 



J 

6 

6 

5 

13 


5 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 

EXAM 

35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 

35-64 
65-94 

35-64 
65-94 

35-64 
63-94 



COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 



UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 



BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 



MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 



10 
008 
007 
010 
002 



007 
009 



007 
008 



007 
OOS 



SE 

COEFFICIENT 



006 
003 
002 
004 
010 



0.002 
0.003 



0.002 
0.003 



0.002 
0.003 



P-VALUE 



0. 127 
0.003 
0.002 
0.009 
0.872 



001 
012 



001 

014 



001 
015 



STANDARDIZED 

COEFFICIENT 

0.437 
, 0.34 I 

0.273 

' 0.38 5 

-0.062 



0.284 
0.34 1 



.315 
336 



288 
334 



STD 
SE 



287 
1 15 
089 
147 
383 



068 
136 



070 
137 



07 1 
137 



SEX: FEMALE 

EVENT: ANGINA PECTORIS UNCOMPLICATED 

RISK FACTOR: SERUM CHOLESTEROL 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



J5-44 AT EXAM 
RISK PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
FACTOR EXAflS EVexTS RATE 



45-5* AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAl. 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



55-«i» AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAl 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



6 5-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



84-204 
205-234 
235-264 
265-294 
295-1124 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



2350 

14 17 

806 

372 

171 

500 
56 16 



2094 
2553 
2259 
1473 
1 10 1 

474 
9959 



7 
6 
3 

5 

40 



1625 
26 15 
2938 
2240 
1866 

229 
1 1513 



II 
23 

25 
22 
31 

6 
I 18 



3 
4 
4 
5 

8 

13 

5 



789 
1401 

1703 
1287 
1031 

37 
6248 



9 
1 1 

17 
15 
20 


72 



5 
6 
10 


6 



RISK 
FACTOR 

84-204 
205-234 
235-264 
265-294 
295-1124 

UNKNOHN 
TOTAL 



PERSON 
EXAMS 

36 1 
486 
542 
350 
20S 



t9S1 



75-84 AT EXAM 



I OF 

EVENTS 

5 
3 
12 
6 
1 



ANNUAL 
RATE 



85- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 

46 
28 
35 

9 

5 



123 



94 AT 



I OF 
EVENTS 



fXAM 



ANNUAL 
RATE 



I OF 
EVENTS 

19 
36 
32 
30 
35 



35-64 CUnoINED 



CRUDE 

2 
3 
3 
4 
6 



AGE- 
AJjJUSTEO 

2 

3 

2 

3 



65-94 COMBINED 



I OF 
EVENTS- 
12 
20 
29 
21 
21 - 



CRUDE 

5 

5 

6 

6 

3 



AGE- 
ABJUSTED 

5 

5 

6 

7 

8 . 









LOGISTIC 


REGRESSIONS 






AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


3S-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
«5-94 




0.023 

-0.002 

0.006 

0.006 

-0.001 


0.005 
0.004 
0.002 
0.003 
0.004 


o.oot 

0.594 
0.001 
0.022 
0.859 


0.921 

-0.095 

0.294 

0.259 

-0.033 


0.196 
0.177 
0.036 
0. 113 
0. 185 


35-64 
4S-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.007 . 
0.004 


0.001 
0.002 


0.001 
0.079 


0.324 ■ 
.0.149 


0.062 
0.096 


35-44 
65-94 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.005 
0.004 


0.001 
0.002 


0.001 
0.073 


0.239 
0.174 


0.066 
0.097 


35-64 
6S-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.004 
0.004 


0.001 
0.002 


0.004 
0.064 


0.I9S 
0.102 


0.068 
0.093 



e 



-163 



TABLE 8-5 DATE=27N0V85 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
BY AGE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAM' FRAMINGHAM STUDY 30-YEAR FOLLOHUP 

SEX: MALE 

EVENT i ANGINA PECTORIS UNCOMPLICATED 

RISK FACTOR: HEMATOCRIT 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 
FACTOR 

25-<t2 

'i5-<i6 

<49-70 

UNKNOHN 
TOTAL 



SS-t* AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



623 
5'56 
981 
775 
1175 

370 
«<(72 



^5- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 

9<*2 

967 

1854 

1510 

2066 

385 

772<i 



51 AT EXAM 

• OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 



3 

6 
10 

19 

<• 
46 



55-64 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1018 
985 
1953 
1599 
2338 

156 
8049 



14 
16 
23 
21 
32 

3 
109 



6 
7 

7 

10 
7 



65-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



450 
493 
963 
861 
1127 

19 
3913 



4 
5 

12 
13 




42 



RISK 
FACTOR 

25-42 
43-44 
45-46 
47-48 
49-70 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



75-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON f OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



214 

119 
240 
197 
247 


1017 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

16 ' 
5 

7 
7 
4 


39 



35-64 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



65-94 COMBINED 
t OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



17 


i 


3 


5 


4 


4 


Z2 


4 


4 


6 


5 


5 


33 


3 


3 


16 


7 


7 


25 


3 


3 


13 


6 


6 


56 


5 


5 


9 


3 


3 


10 


5 


7 





a 





163 


4 


4 


49 


5 


5 



LQOISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 

EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 

SE 


35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 




0.268 

0.061 

0.005 

-0.009 

-0.040 


0.111 
0.043 
0.026 
0.042 
0-.089 


0.015 
0.156 
0.849 
0.829 
0.653 


0.985 

0.219 

0.019 

-0.033 

-0.167 


0.407 
0.(54 
0.098 
0.155 
0.371 


35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


o.oso- 

-0.008. 


8.022 
0.037 


0.181 
0.820 


0.109 
-0.033 


0.d82 
0.143 


3S-64 
65-94 


BIVARIATE 
aiVARIATE 


0.027 
-0.012 


0.022 

■ 0.038 


0.213 
0.753 


0.101 
-0.044 


O.081 
0.145 


35-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.011 
-0.025 


0.022 
0.039 


0.613 
0.520 


0.042 
-0.096 


0.082 
0.150 



SEX: FEMALE 

EVENT: ANGINA PECTORIS UNCOMPLICATED 

RISK FACTOR: HEMATOCRIT 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 

FACTOR 

21-39 
40-41 
42-43 
44-45 
46-65 

UNKNOHN 
TOTAL 



35-44 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1697 
967 

1043 
856 

487 

566 
5616 



45-54 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1843 
1741 
1955 
2194 
1681 

545 
9959 



5 

9 

7 
8 
6 

5 

40 



55-64 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1553 
2061 
2260 
2847 
2521 

271 
11513 



13 4 
18 4 

14 J 
34 6 
33 7 



6 
118 



11 
5 



65-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON » OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



646 

1069 
1256 
1609 
1626 

42 
6248 



8 

9 

14 

22 

19 


72 



RISK 

FACTOR 

21-39 

40-41 
42-43 
44-45 
46-65 

UNKNOHN 
TOTAL 



AGE AT 

EXAM 

35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-34 
85-94 

35-64 
65-94 

35-64 
65-94 

55-64 
65-94 



75-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



297 
373 
353 
486 
436 

6 
1951 



4 
7 
2 
11 
6 


30 



7 

9 

3 

11 

7 


8 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



35-64 COMBINED 
» OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 



-0.065 
0.026 



046 
024 



UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 



BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 



MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 



0.066- 
0.017 



0.034 
0.017 



0.024 
0.014 



24 
31 

19 
26 
23 


20 
27 
23 
43 
39 



125 


11 
163 


LOGISTIC 


REGRESSIONS 


SE 
COEFFICIEHT 


P-VALUE 


0.118 
0.048 
0.028 
0.034 
0.047 


0.586 
0.593 
0.092 
0.481 
0.984 


0.023 
0.028 


0.004 
0.540 


0.024 
0.028 


0.153 
0.532 


0.024 
0.028 


0.303 
0.605 



6S-»4 COMBINED 
♦ OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



12 

16 
16 
33 
26 



103 



STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 



232 
092 
161 
084 
004 



237 
061 



121 

062 



088 
051 



STD 
SE 



,426 
.171 
,096 
,120 
184 



0.083 
0.100 



O.OSS 
0.100 



0.085 
0.100 



164 



TABLE 8-6 DATE=12DEC85 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
8r ACE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAIl: FRAMINGHAN STUDY JO-YEAR FOLLOUUP 

SEX: MALE 

EVENT: ANGINA PECTORIS UNCOMPLICATED 

RISK FACTOR: BLOOD GLUCOSE (MG/DL) 

PERSONS AT RISK; PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 
FACTOR 

29-69 

70-89 

90-109 

110-129 

130-52<) 

UNKMOUH 
TOTAL 



55-<i« AT EXAM 
PERSON J OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



992 

2501 

626 

105 

200 
<i<i72 



■^5-54 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1'i90 

AI72 

IS'iS 

JOS 

193 

216 
7724 



9 
21 
1 1 

1 



3 
46 



55-64 AT EXAM 65-74 AT EXAM 

PERSON t OF ANNUAL PERSON J OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1087 

4056 

1866 

537 

408 

95 
8049 



16 

55 

25 

6 

7 


109 



421 


4 


5 


1761 


15 


4 


1046 


14 


7 


335 


4 


6 


334 


5 


7 


16 








3913 


42 


5 



RISK 
FACTOR 

29-69 

70-39 

90-109 

I1U-I29 

130-524 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



75-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON i OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



62 
377 
528 
125 
125 


1017 



85-94 AT EXAM 35-64 COMBINED 

PERSON I OF ANNUAL » OF , AGE- 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



1 

1 1 

14 

4 

9 




39 



65-94 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



27 


4 


4 


4 


4 


4 


SI 


4 


4 


20 


5 


5 


36 


5 


4 


15 


5 


6 


7 


4 


3 


4 


4 


5 


8 


i 


4 


6 


6 


7 


4 


4 


3 











«3 


4 


4 


49 


5 


5 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 

35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 

35-64 UNIVARIATE 
65-94 UNIVARIATE 

55-64 BIVARIATE 
65-94 BIVARIATE 

35-64 MULTIVARIATE 
65-94 MULTIVARIATE 



COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


-0.006 
0.001 
0.001 
0.009 


0.009 
O.OOJ 
0.004 
.008 


0.491 
0.336 
0.892 
0.223 


-0.138 
0.019 
0.020 
0.302 


0.201 

0.093 

0.149 

. 0.248 


0.002 
0.002 


0.003 
0.004 


0.393 
0.635 


0.05S 
0.061 


0.068 
0.128 


-0.001 
O.OOZ 


0.003 
0.004 


0.692 
0.592 


-0.031 
0.068 


0.079 
0. 126 


-0.001 
0.002 


O.OOJ 
0.004 


0.640 
0.554 


-0.036 
0.073 


0.078 
0.124 



SEXi FEMALE 

EVENT: ANGINA PECTORIS UNCOMPLICATED 

RISK FACTOR: BLOOD GLUCOSE (HG/DL) 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



r 



RISK 
FACTOR 

29-69 

70-89 

90-109 

110-129 

130-524 

UNKNOHN 
TOTAL 



35-44 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAHS EVENTS RATE 



1066 

3412 

672 

96 

39 

331 
5616 



45-54 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1797 

5744 

1625 

301 

159 

333 
9959 



3 
24 
4 
2 
3 

4 
40 



55-44 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1369 


15 


5 


6098 


52 


4 


2712 


24 


4 


730 


to 


7 


438 


11 


13 


1<« 


6 


18 


11513 


118 


5 



65-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON ♦ OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



521 


7 


7 


3102 


33 


5 


1732 


19 


5 


501 


7 


7 


360 


6 


8 


32 


0- 





6248 


72 


6 



RISK 
FACTOR 

29-6 9 

70-89 

90-109 

110-129 

130-524 

UNKNOHN 
TOTAL 



AGE AT 
EXAM 

35-44 

45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 

35-44 
65-94 

35-64 
65-94 

35-64 
65-94 



75-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



105 
823 
640 
219 
163 

1 
1951 



UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 



BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 



2 
8 

t1 
4 
5 


30 



10 
5 
9 
9 

15 


8 



8 5-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



35-64 COMBINED 
• OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 

-0.015 
0.015 
0.007 
0.001 
0.005 



01 1 
004 



008 
004 



MULTIVARIATE 0.007 
MULTIVARIATE 0.003 



3 
44 
51 
13 
12 


20 
78 
29 
12 
14 



123 


10 
1«3 


LOGISTIC 


REGRESSIONS 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


0.039 
0.003 
0.002 
0.004 
0.004 


0.692 
0.001 
0.006 
0.717 
0.127 


0.002 
0.003 


0.001 
0. 184 


0.002 
0.003 


0.001 
0. 187 


0.002 
0.003 


0.001 
0.341 



2 
3 
3 
5 

II 

6 

3 



3 
J 
2 
4 
9 

10 
3 



65-94 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED- 



. 9 
41 
31 
11 
11 


103 



STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 

-0.234 
0.300 
0.166 
0.040 
0.182 



234 
104 



183 
104 



145 
077 



7 
5 

6 
S 
10 



6 



STD 
SE 

0.590 
0.060 
0.061 
0.109 
0.119 



038 
079 



042 
079 



043 
081 



7 
5 
6 
7 
10 


6 



165 



TABLE S-7 DATE=27N0V85 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
BY AGE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAM: FRAMINGHAM STUDY 30-YEAR FOLLDWUP 

SEXi MALE 

EVENTi ANGINA PECTORIS UNCOMPLICATED 

RISK FACTOR! DIABETES MELLITUS 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 
FACTOR 


35- 

PERSON 
EXAMS 


•<i<i AT EXAM 

t OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


PERSON 
EXAMS 


■5<i AT EXAM 

• OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


55- 

PERSON 
EXAMS 


■6'i 


AT EXAM 
I OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


6 5-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON 1 OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 


NO 
YES 




8 



1 



238 


"iS 3 
3 6 


7549 
500 




95 
1<i 


14 


3504 
409 


33 5 
4 5 


UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



'i'*72 



8 


1 






'^6 3 



80<i9 





109 


7 



3913 



42 5 


RISK 
FACTOR 


75- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


■8<» AT EXAM 

t OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


85- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


9<S AT EXAM 

< OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


35- 

t OF 
EVENTS 


■64 


COMBINED 65- 
AGE- • OF 
CRUDE ADJUSTED EVENTS 


•94 COMBINED 

AGE- 
CRUDE ADJU: 


NO 
YES 


900 
117 


6 

1 


i 


34 
S 




146 
17 




4 
11 


4 
8 • 


44 

5 


5 

5 


UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



1017 




7 


J 



39 






1«3 




4 


4 



49 


5 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD , 

SE 


35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-34 
85-94 




0.795 

0.815 

-0.104 

0.250 


0.601 
0.290 
0.52S 
1 .085 


0.187 
0.005 
0.S43 
0.817 


0.137 

0.197 

-0.032 

0.080 


0.104 
0.070 
0.162 
0.346 


35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


1.073 
-0.052 


0.259 
0.474 


0.801 
0.913 


0.207 
-0.016 


0.050 
0.147 


35-64 
65-94 


BIVARIATE 
8IVARIATE 


0.765 
-0.043- 


0.262 
0.474 


0.003 
0.927 


0.148 
-0.013 


0.051 
0.147 


35-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.701" 
-0.019 


0.268 
0.479 


0.0S9 
a.9«8 


0.135 
-0.006 


O.OSZ 
0.148 



SEXi FEMALE 

EVENT: ANGINA PECTORIS UNCOMPLICATED 

RISK FACTOR: DIABETES MELLITUS 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 
FACTOR 



NO 
YES 



UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



35-44 AT EXAM 45-54 AT EXAM 

PERSON t OF ANNUAL PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



5573 
45 




5616 



55-64 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 



LAMS 


EVENTS 


RATE 


EXAMS 


EVENTS 


RATI 


9760 
199 


37 
3 


2 
8 


10985 
528 


109 

9 


5 
9 



9959 



40 


2 



11515 



118 


5 



65-74 At EXAM 
PERSON » OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



5780 
468 




6248 



64 
8 




72 



RISK 
FACTOR 



HO 
YES 



UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



AGE AT 

EXAM 

35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 

35-64 
65-94 

35-64 
65-94 

35-64 
65-94 



75-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1738 
215 




1951 



25 
5 




50 



12 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 



1 .592 
0.548 

0.440 
0.499 



UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 



BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 



MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 



1 .009 
0.465 



0.671 
0.462, 



0.472- 
0.522 



106 
17 


151 
12 



125 



163 


lOOISTIC 


REGRESSIONS 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


0.605 
0.350 
0.378 
0.495 


0.021 
0.117 
0.244 
0.514 


0.302 
0.299 


0.001 
0.122 


0.304 
0.300 


0.027 
0.124 


0.311 
0.507 


0.128 
0.295 



55-64 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



65-94 COMBINED 
« OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



.5 

6 


90 

15 




5 


S 
105 


1 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 




STB 
SE 


0.195 
0.115 
0.116 
0.156 




O.0S5 
0.073 
0.100 
0.155 


0.168 
0.128 




S.050 

0.083 


0.1 1 i 
0.128 




0.051 
0.08J 


0.079 
0.089 




0.052 
0.085 



165 



RISK 
FACTOR 



NO 
YES 



TABLE 5-8 DATE=27NQV85 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
BY AGE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAMt FRAMINGHAM STUDY 30-YEAR fOLLOWUP 

SEXi MALE 

EVENT: ANGINA PECTORIS UNCOMPLICATED 

RISK FACTOR: GLUCOSE IN URINE. DEFINITE OR TRACE 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



J5-<i<i AT EXAM ■iS-S'i AT EXAM 

PERSON t OF ANNUAL PERSON » OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



43S0 
60 



7535 
168 



:<5 
1 



55-6<t AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



7815 
210 



107 
2 



65-7'* AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



3767 
liiO 



2 



( 



UNKNOHN 
tOTAL 



RISK 
FACTOR 



HO 
YES 



32 

4H72 



7 5-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



986 
28 



3 
18 



21 
772't 




'>6 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

38 
1 



24 
8049 




109 



35-64 COMBINED 
• OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



160 
3 



6 
3913 




42 



65-94 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



46 
3 



UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



3 
1017 




39 




163 




49 



LOOISTlC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE . 


35-44 
45-54 
55-6,4 
65-7,4 
75-84 


1 ,;i y 


-0.003 

-0.367 

0.300 

< .800 


1.014 
0.717 
0.730 
t.09« 


0.997 
0.609 
0.681 
0.101 


-0.000 

-0.059 

0.056 

0.295 


0.1*48 
0.114 
0.136 
0.130 


85-94 














35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


-0.170 
0.623 


0.585 
0.601 


0.771 
0.390 


-0.025 
0.113 


0.d8S 
0.109 


35-64 
65-94 


BIVARIATE 
alVARIATE 


-0.315 . 
0.615- 


0.5S6 
0.601 


a.S9a 

0.306 


-0.046 
0.112 


0.d85 
0.109 


35-64 
6S-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


-0.788' 
0.637 


0.716 
0.60S 


0.271 
0.292 


-0.115 » 
f 0.116 


0.104 
0.110 



SEX: FEMALE 

EVENT' ANGINA PECTORIS UNCOMPLICATED 

RISK FACTOR" GLUCOSE IN URINE. DEFINITE OR TRACE 

PERSONS AT RISK- PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 

FACTOR 



NO 
YES 



UNKNOHN 
TOTAL 



PERSON 
EXAMS 



5537 
41 



38 
5616 



35-44 AT EXAM 



I OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 



45-54 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



9841 
94 



24 
9959 



38 

1 



1 
40 



21 
2 



55-64 AT EXAM 65-74 AT EXAM 

PERSON I OF ANNUAL PERSON « OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



11346 
144 



23 

11515 



116 
2 




118 



AMS 


EVENTS 


RATE 


6131 
107 


'\- 


6 
14 


10 
6248 



72 



6 



RISK 
FACTOR 



NO 
YES 



UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



75-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1919 
23 



9 
1951 



28 
2 




30 



T 
43 



85-94 AT EXAM 33-64 COMBINED 

PERSON I OF ANNUAL • OF AGE- 

EXAMS EVENTS RATE EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 

120 
3 



65-94 COMBINElJ 
t OF AGE- ,, 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



139 

3 


3 
3 


3 
. 3 


98 
5 


6 
19 


6 
21 


1 
163 


6 

3 


8 

3 



105 



.. 6 



6 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VAIUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STO 
SE 


35-44 




. 


_ 


_ 


. 


- 


45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 




1.020 
0.310 
0.930 
1.861 


1 .018 

0.718 
0.598 
0.764 


O.Sli 
0.666 
0.120 
0.015 


0.099 
0.034 
0.121 
0.201 


0.099 

0.080 

0.078 

■ 0.083 


35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.597 
1 .169 


0.586 
0.467 


0.309 
0.012 


0.060 
0.147 


0.059 

0.059 


35-64 
65-94 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.481 
1.170- 


0.587 
0.467 


0.412 
0.012 


0.049 
0.147 


0.059 
0.059 


35-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.194' 
0.942 


0.596 
0.430 


0.745 
0.050 


0.020 
0.118 


0.060 
0.060 



167 



RISK 
FACTOR 



NO 
YES 



TABLE S-9 DATE=0IHAR56 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
ar AGE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAMi FRAMINGHAM STUDY 30-YEAR FOLLOWUP 

SEX: MALE 

EVENT 1 ANGINA PECTORIS UNCOMPLICATED 

RISK FACTOR: GLUCOSE INTOLERANCE 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



35-44 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



4335 
137 



45-54 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



7221 
503 



42 
4 



55-64 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



7145 
904 



91 
IS 



6 
10 



65-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 

EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



322! 
6S5 



9 



UNKNOWN 
I TOTAL 




4472 




7724 




46 




3049 




109 




3913 




42 



RISK 
FACTOR 



NO 
YES 



75-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



802 
215 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

27 

12 • , 



35-64 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



141 
22 



65-94 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



39 
10 



UNKNOHN 
TOTAL 




1017 




59 




163 




49 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
5E 


15-44 

;, 45-54 

55-64 

65-74 

, 75-54 

i 85-94 




0.315 

0.454 

0.254 

-0.478 


0.525 
0.260 . 
0.375 
1 .083 


0.549 
0.081 
0.502 
0.659 


0.07S 

0.143 

0.096 

-0.195 


0.130 
0.082 
Q.144 
0.442 


35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.643 
0.133 


0.231 
0.356 


0.005 
0.709 


0. 171 
0.051 


0.061 
0.138 


35-64 
65-94 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.382 
0.149 


0.233 
0.357 


0.101 
0.677 


0. 101 
0.058 


0.062 
0.138 


35-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.295 
0.187 


0.241 
0.360 


0.221 
0.602 


0.078 
0.073 


0.064 
0.139 



SEXi FEMALE 

EVENT: ANGINA PECTORIS UNCOMPLICATED 

RISK FACTOR: GLUCOSE INTOLERANCE 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 
FACTOR 



MO 
YES 



35-44 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



5522 
9* 



45-54 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



9S8S 
371 



37 
3 



55-64 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



10503 
1010 



101 
17 



65-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



5398 
850 



59 
13 



UNKNOHN 
TOTAL 




5616 




9959 




40 




11513 




118 




6248 




72 



RISK 
FACTOR 



NO 
YES 



75-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



tS8< 
370 



19 

11 



6 
15 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

100 
23 



35-64 COMBINED 
» OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



143 
20 



65-94 COMBINED 
t OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



79 
24 



6 
IS 



6 
9 - 



UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 




1951 




30 




123 




163 




103. 



LOQISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUe 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 




0T744 
0.567 
0.340 
0.924 


o'.ios 

0.264 
0.309 
0.183 


0T217 
0.032 
0.270 
0.016 


07141 
0.160 
0.117 
0.362 


0.114 
0.075 
0.106 
0.150 


35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.S95 
0.556 


0.240 
0.235 


0.001 
0.018 


0.203 
0. 198 


0.055 
0.084 


35-64 
65-94 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.557 
557 


0.243 
0.23< 


0.022 
0.018 


0.126 
0.199 


0.055 
0.084 


35-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.489 
0.487 


O.Z4< 
0.240 


0.047 
0.042 


111 
0.174 


0.056 
0.086 



168 - 



TABLE S-IO DATE=27N0V85 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
BY AGE AND LEVEL OF RISIC FACTOR AT EXAMi FRAMINGHAM STUDY 30-YEAR FQLLOWUP 

SEXi MALE 

EVENT! ANGINA PECTORIS UNCOMPLICATED 

RISK FACTOR! METROPOLITAN RELATIVE WEIGHT (PERCENT) 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 

FACTOR 

51-1 0<i 
105-114 
115-121 
125-1 J<i 
135-272 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



SS-II AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



723 
965 
1122 
915 
717 




1172 





1 1 

1 

2 1 
1 3 



S 1 



15-51 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1131 
1510 
2037 
1615 
1370 

t 

7721 



2 

9 

10 

13 

12 


16 



55-61 AT EXAM 
PERSON « OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1155 
1655 
2175 
1671 
13S9 

1 
8019 



1 1 
18 
28 
25 
27 


109 



5 
5 
6 
7 
10 


7 



65-71 AT EXAM 
PERSON » OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



686 


5 


1 


851 


6 


1 


1069 


11 


7 


766 


12 


8 


511 


5 


5 








_ 


3913 


12 


5 



r 



RISK 
FACTOR 

51-104 
105-111 
115-121 
125-131 
135-272 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



AGE AT 
EXAM 

35-11 
15-51 
:55-61 
65-71 
75-81 
85-91 

35-61 
65-91 

35-61 
65-91 

35-61 
65-91 



75-81 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



221 

252 
296 

155 
90 


1017 



UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 



8IVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 



85-91 AT EXAM 
PERSON i OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 

0.050 
0.021 
0.015 
0.009 
-0.012 



0.019- 
0.008 , 



0.019 
0.007 



35-61 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 



0.017 
0.005 



18 

9 

12 





13 

za 

39 
10 
13 




39 



1<3 


LOGISTIC 


REGRESSIONS 


SE 

COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


0.018 
0.008 
0.006 
0.010 
0.026 


0.005 
0.010 
0.008 
0.331 
0.416 


0.005 
0.009 


0.001 
0.381 


0.005 
0.009 


0.001 
0.119 


0.005 
0.009 


0.001 
0.618 



65-91 COMBINED 
t OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 

0.810 
0.317 
0.213 
0. 116 
-0.179 



a. lbs 

0.122 

0.3io 
0.111 

0.276 
0.073 



7 
3 

15 

11 

5 


19 



STD 
SE 



291 
131 
091 
151 
390 



a.07J 

0.110 



0.073 
0.111 



0.078 
0. 117 



SEXi FEMALE 

EVENT! ANGINA PECTORIS UNCOMPLICATED 

RISK FACTOR: METROPOLITAN RELATIVE WEIGHT (PERCENT) 

PERSONS AT RISK' PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 
FACTOR 


35-11 

PERSON 
EXAMS 


AT EXAM 
1 OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


15- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


•51 AT EXAM 

• OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


55- 

PERSON 
EXAMS 


•41 AT EXAM 

1 OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


45-; 

PERSON 
EXAMS 


n AT EX/ 
t OF 
EVENTS 


ANNUAL 
RATE 




51-101 
105-111 
115-121 
125-131 
135-272 


1694 

1130 

1058 

566 

860 



2 1 
2 1 



1 1 


2095 
2331 
2107 
1372 
2051 


10 
3 

10 
1 

13 




2 

1 
2 
1 
3 


2015 
2109 
2179 
1713 
2837 


16 
11 
19 
21 
IS 


1 
3 
1 
6 
8 


1214 

1115 

1395 

982 

1510 




11 

12 
13 

15 
13 


6 

5 
5 
3 
6 




UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 


8 

5616 



5 



9959 



10 




2 



11SI3 



118 


5 



6218 






72 


4 




RISK 
FACTOR 


75-84 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


i AT EXAM 
1 OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


8 5- 

PERSON 
EXAMS 


■91 AT EXAM 

• OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


35- 
1 OF 

EVENTS 


-61 COMBINED 

AGE- 
CRUDE ADJUSTED 


65-94 COMBINED 
t OF . AGE- 
EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 




54-101 
105-111 
115-121 
I2S-131 
1 35-272 


517 
37 5 
399 
266 

391 


7 7 
2 3 
9 tl 
5 9 
7 9 


41 
28 
21 
16 

17 








26 
19 
31 
ZS 

iZ 


2 
Z 
3 
3 
5 


3 
2 

3 . 
5 


21 
14 
22 
20 
26 




4 
5 

6 
8 
7 


4 

5- _ . 

4 

8 

7 


_ _ . 


UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



1951 



30 8 



125 








a 




3 


S 

3 



103 




4 


4 


- 










LOGISTIC 


REGRESSIONS 






^ 










AGE AT 
EXAH 




COEFFICIEHt 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 






P-VALUE 




STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


- 


- 


35-41 
15-54 
55-64 
65-71 
75-81 
85-94 




0.020 
0.013 
0.011 
0.001 
0.007 




0.016 
0.006 
0.003 
0.005 
0.008 






0.201 
0.026 
0.001 
0.917 
0.128 




0.106 
0.282 
0.304 
0.012 
0.139 




0. 
0. 
0, 
0. 
0. 


.317 
.126 
.075 
.118 
.175 






35-61 
65-91 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.016- 
0.003. 




0.003 
0.001 






0.001 
0.517 




0.319 
0.058 ' 




0. 
0. 


.040 
,096 






35-61 
65-91 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.011 
0.003 




0.003 
0.001 






0.001 
0.535 




0.301 
0.060 




0. 

0, 


.063 
.097 






35-61 
65-91 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.006 
0.000 




0.003 
0.005 






0.072 
0.936 




0.133 
0.008 






0. 


.071 
.099 







i 



169 



TABLE 8-11 DATE=27N0V85 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
Br AGE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAMi FRAMINGHAM STUDY 30-TEAR FOLLOWUP 

SEX: MALE 

EVENT i ANGINA PECTORIS UNCOMPLICATED 

RISK FACTORi VITAL CAPACITY - HEIGHT INDEX (ML/INCH) 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



35-<4'i AT EXAM 



RISK 
FACTOR 


PERSON 
EXAMS 


t OF 
EVENTS 


ANNUAL 
RATE 


8-<i'i 
<*5-<i9 
50-51 
55-59 
60-85 


269 

■il 1 

7"i7 

1022 

2010 



1 
1 

2 
3 




1 
1 
1 

1 


UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 


13 
1<i72 


1 
8 


38 

1 


RISK 
FACTOR 


7 5- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


8* AT EXAM 

1 OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


8-4:* 
45-<49 
50-5<i 
55-59 
60-85 


172 
97 
65 
26 


I, 
2 


1 





UNKNOMN 
TOTAL 


8 
1017 




7 





05-5^ AT EXAM 55-6:i AT EXAM 

PERSON t OF ANNUAL PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1062 
1 125 
1653 
1739 
2135 

5 
7724 



10 

7 

1 I 


46 



2045 
1480 
1835 
1416 
1255 


29 
16 
31 
25 
8 


7 
5 
3 
9 
3 


18 
8049 



109 



7 



65-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE ' 



1752 
749 
712 
442 
246 

12 
3913 



5 

6 
2 


42 



-e 
1 



85-94 AT EXAM 55-64 COMBINED 

PERSON • OF ANNUAL t OF AGE- 

EXAMS EVENTS RATE EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



24 
6 
7 
2 




65-94 COMBINED 
t OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 




39 



39 


6 


5 


25 


5 


5 


25 


4 


4 


10 


5 


5 


42 


s 


5 


5 


3 


3 


34 


4 


4 


7 


7 


7 


ZZ 


2 


z 


2 


4 


3 


1 


14 


8 











163 


4 


4 


49 


" 5 


s 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 




0.001 
-0.030 
-0.004 
-O.006 

0.025 


0.043 
0.016 
0.010 
0.016 
0.040 


0.991 
O.OSZ 
0.713 
0.7Z5 
0.537 


0.004 
-0.273 
-0.055 
-0.055 

0.233 


0.379 
0.143 
0.096 
0.154 
0.376 


35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


-0.028- 
O.OOZ. 


0.008 
0.01s 


a. 001 

0.906 


-0.275 
0.017 


0.076 
0.144 


33-64 
65-94 


BIVARIATE -0.009 
81VARIATE ♦ -0.000 


O.OOS 
O.OIS 


0.Z&5 
0.993 


-0.091 

-0.001 


0.082 
0.147 


35-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


-0.005 
-0.001 


0.009 
0.016 


O.ilS 
0.937 


-0.044 
-0.012 


0.087 
0.150 



SEX> FEMALE 

EVEHTi ANOIN* PECTORIS UNCOMPLICATED 

RISK FACTOR! VITAL CAPACITY - HEIGHT INDEX (HL/INCH) 

PERSONS AT RISK' PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 

FACTOR 

4-29 
30-54 
35-59 
40-44 
45-92 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



55-44 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



122 

289 

769 

1427 

2988 

21 
5616 



45-54 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



554 

1217 
2077 
2804 
5510 

17 
9959 



4 
5 
16 
9 
6 



55-64 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1461 25 

2418 50 

5048 32 

2706 22 

1859 9 



21 
11515 



118 



65-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1747 

1715 

1529 

354 

597 

6 
6248 



54 

15 

10 

9 

• 4 

a 

72 



10 
4 
3 
5 

5 


6 



RISK 
FACTOR 

4-29 
50-54 
55-59 
40-44 
45-92 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



AGE AT 

EXAM 

55-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-54 
85-94 

55-64 
65-94 

55-64 
65-94 

55-64 
65-94 



75-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



950 


13 


7 


569 


9 


8 


514 


7 


11 


1 11 


1 


5 


25 








2 








951 


30 


8 



65-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



35-64 COMtlNeO 
t OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ASJUSTEO 



UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 



BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 



MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 



COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 

-0.154 
-O.062 
-0.045 

-0.059 
0.017 



-0.071 - 
-0.028. 



-0.049 
-0.050 



-0.038 
-0.024 



80 
29 

13 

1 



31 
36 
48 
3Z 
1« 



Z3 



1<3 


LOGISTIC 


REGRESSIONS 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VAIUE 


0.049 
0.020 
0.012 
0.016 
0.026 


o.ao« 
o.ooz 

0.001 
0.01Z 
O.SK 


0.009 
0.013 


0.001 
0.030 


0.010 
0.015 


0.001 

. oz« 


0.011 
0.014 


0.001 
0.080 



65-94 COMIINED 
« OF AGE- , 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



48 
24 
17 
10 
4.. 


103 



STANDARDIZED 

COEFFICIENT 

-0.980 

-0.455 

-0.526 

• -0.291 

0.121 



566 
212 



-0.588 
-0.225 



-0.303 
-0. 184 



STD 
SE 

0.359 
0.150 
0.089 
0.116 
0.186 



074 
097 



081 
101 



9 
5 
5 
5 

4 



6- 



0.087 
0.105 



- 170 



TABLE 8-12 DATE=27H0V85 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
BY AGE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAMi FRAMINGHAM STUDY SO-YEAR FOLLOWUP 

SEXi MALE 

EVENT I ANGINA PECTORIS UNCOMPLICATED 

RISK FACTOR' HEART RATE CPER MINUTE) 

PERSONS AT RISK' PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



J5-<i'* AT EXAM 
RISK PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
FACTOR EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



30-67 
68-75 
76-8J 
84-91 
92-220 

UNKNOHN 
TOTAL 



128'* 

1492 

722 

579 

395 


4472 



45-54 AT EXAM 55-64 AT EXAM 

PERSON I OF ANNUAL PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1949 
2490 
1394 
1097 
794 


7724 



14 

14 

13 

4 

1 


46 



2309 

2490 

1374 

1064 

812 


8049 



28 
35 
21 
14 
11 


109 



65-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1183 


14 


6 


11 59 


10 


4 


624 


7 


6 


487 


7 


7 


460 


4 


4 








. 


3913 


42 


5 



f 



1 



RISK 
FACTOR 

30-67 
68-75 
76-83 
84-91 
92-220 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



AGE AT 
EXAM 

35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 

35-64 
65-94 

35-64 
65-94 

35-64 
65-94 



7 5-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON f OF ANHUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



301 
296 

192 
123 
105 


1017 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



35-64 COMBINED 
t OF AGE- ^ 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTfeo 



UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 



BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 



MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 



COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 

0.015 
-0.016 
0.004 
0.000 
0.007 



-0.001- 
0.002 



-0.001 
0.002 



-0.008 
-0.001 



11 

12 

10 

5 

1 


42 
54 
35 
20 
12 



39 



163 


LOGISTIC 


REGRESSIONS 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


0.027 
0.012 
0.007 
0.011 
0.027 


0.588 
0.209 
0.629 
0.971 
. 7 96 


0.006 
0.011 


0.879 
0.886 


0.006 
0.011 


0.902 
0.884 


0.007 
0.011 


0.211 
0.936 



65-94 COMBINED 
t OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 

0.181 
-0.195 
0.046 
0.006 
0.095 



-0.012 
0.020 



-0.010 
0.021 



-0.105 
-0.012 



14 

13 

10 

8 

4 


49 



STD 

SE 

0.334 
0.155 
0.095 
0.155 
0.366 



0.079 
0.143 



0.078 
0.143 



0.084 
0. 147 



SEXi FEMALE 

EVENT! ANGINA PECTORIS UNCOMPLICATED 

RISK FACTOR' HEART RATE (PER MINUTE5 

PERSONS AT RISK' PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



35-44 AT EXAM 
RISK PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
FACTOR EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



30-67 
68-75 
76-83 
84-91 
92-220 

UNKNOHN 
TOTAL 



1092 

1803 

1051 

939 

731 


5616 




2 1 
2 1 

1 1 




5 



45-54 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1897 
3244 
1911 
1604 
1303 


9959 



9 
11 
6 
9 
5 


40 



55-64 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



2305 
3468 
2351 
1780 
1609 


11513 



25 

35 
23 

17 
18 


118 



65-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1103 
1668 
1358 
1089 
1030 


6248 



11 

25 

16 

8 

12 


72 



RISK 
FACTOR 

30-67 
68-75 
76-83 
84-91 
92-220 

UNKNOHN 
TOTAL 



ACE AT 
EXAM 

35-44 
45-54 

55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 

35-64 
65-94 

35-64 
6 5-94 

35-64 
65-94 



75-84 AT EXAM 85-94 AT EXAM 

PERSON • OF ANNUAL PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATt EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



360 




7 


462 




9 


428 




7 


330 




t2 


371 




4 







. 


951 


30 


8 



UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 



BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 



MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 



COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 

0.010 

0.006 
-0.002 
-0.006 
-0.007 



0.000. 

-o.oos 



-0.000 
-0.005 



-0.006 
-0.007 



26 
32 
24 
23 
18 


34 
48 
31 
27 
23 



123 



1«3 


LOOISTIC 


REGRESSIONS 


SE 

COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


0.033 
0.012 
0.007 
0.009 
0.014 


0.763 
0.6 38 
0.750 
0.524 
0.588 


0.006 
0.008 


0.979 
0.523 


. 0.006 
0. 008 


0.988 
0.521 


0.007 
O.OOS 


0.351 
0.329 



55-«4 Combined 

• OF AGE- ^ 

EVENTS CRUDE AOJUsT^O 



65-94 COMBIMED 
• OF AGE- ^ , 

EVENTS CRUDE AOJUSlED 



16 
33 
22 
16 
16 


103 



STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 

0.126 

0.073 
-0.030 
-0.078 
-0.104 



002 
06 5 



-0.001 
-0.065 



-0.078 
-0.100 



STD 
SE 

0.416 
0.154 
0.094 
0.122 
0.191 



0.079 
0.101 



0.078 
0. 101 



0.083 
0.102 



-171 



TABLE 8-13 DATE=13.MAY85 

AVERAGE ANNUAL IHCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
BY AGE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAMi FRAMINOHAM STUDY JO-YEAR FOLLOWUP 

SEXi MALE 

EVENT' ANGINA PECTORIS UNCOMPLICATED 

RISK FACTOR: CIGARETTES SMOKED (NUMBER PER DAY) 

PERSONS AT RISK' PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 
FACTOR 

NONE 

1-10 
11-20 
21-40 
41-90 

UNKNOWN 

TOTAL 



35-44 AT EXAM 45-54 AT EXAM 55-64 AT EXAM 

PERSON I OF ANNUAL PERSON I OF ANNUAL PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1383 
433 

1485 
987 
158 

26 
4472 



(AMS 


EVENTS RAT 


3068 


20 3 


716 


2 1 


2051 


12 J 


1602 


11 J 


252 


1 2 


35 





7724 


46 J 



4295 


60 


7 


769 


8 


5 


1682 


21 


6 


I 1 19 


18 


8 


162 


2 


6 


22 








8049 


109 


7 



65-74-AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



26 11 


32 


6 


374 


2 


3 


526 


4 


4 


36 9 


4 


5 


27 








6 








3913 


42 


5 



RISK 
I FACTOR 

NONE 

1-10 
1 1-20 
21-40 
41-90 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



75-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON i OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



797 

92 

77 

4« 

5 


1017 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

27 
6 
5 




39 



35-64 COMBINED 
< OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



65-94 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



82 


5 


4 


39 


6 


6 


10 


i 


2 


2 


2 


2 


35 


3 


4 


4 


3 


3 


31 


« 


5 


4 


5 


4 


5 


4 


4 





























f<3 


4 


4 


49 


5 


5 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



ACE AT 

EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISX FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 




0.030 

0.002 

O.OOI 

-0.012 


0.023 
0.010 
0.007 
0.015 


0, 189 
0.810 
0.875 
0.442 


0.428 

0.035 

0.015 

-0.134 


0.326 

0. 146 
0.096 
0. 174 


35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


-0.004 
-0.014 


0.0S6 
0.015 


0.496 
0.344 


-0.055 
-0.158 


0.08 1 
0.167 


35-64 
65-94 


BIVARIATE 
SIVARIATE 


0.004 
-0.015 


0.005 
O.015 


0.478 
0.306 


0.056 
-0.173 


0.079 
0. 168 


J5-64 

65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.006 
-0.016 


0.006 
0.015 


0.284 
0.285 


0.086 
-0. 179 


0.08 1 
0. 147 



SEX I PEMALE 

EVENT: ANGINA PECTORIS UNCOMPLICATED 

RISK FACTOR: CIGARETTES SMOKED (NUMBER PER DAY) 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 
FACTOR 

NONE 

1-10 
1 1-20 
21-40 
4 1-90 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



35-44 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



2582 

1314 

137! 

298 

22 

29 
56 16 



45-54 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



5528 


27 


2 


1726 


5 


1 


2009 


6 


1 


622 


2 


2 


37 








37 








9959 


40 


2 



55-64 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



7595 

1566 

1696 

602 

16 

38 
11513 



91 6 

1 I 4 

13 4 

3 2 





65-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



4863 


57 


6 


626 


5 


4 


568 


9 


8 


172 


1 


3 





a 


- 


19 








6248 


. 72 


6 



75-84 AT EXAM 
RISK PERSON i OF ANNUAL 

FACTOR EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



S5-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



33-64 COMBINED 
t OF AOE- 

EVENT3 CRUDE ADJUSTED 



65-94 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



NONE 

l-IO 
1 1-20 
21-40 
41-90 

UNKNOWN 

TOTAL 



AGE AT 

EXAM 

35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 

35-64 
65-94 

25-64 
65-94 

35-64 
65-94 



1710 


27 


8 


137 


3 


1 1 


84 








16 














- 


4 








1951 


30 


8 



UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 



BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 



COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 

0.017 
-0.017 
-0.027 
-0. 001 
-0.064 



-0.030 
-0 .009 



-0.020 
-0.009 



MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 



015 
004 



117 


120 
17 
21 

S 



123 


s 

Its 


LOGISTIC 


REGRESSIONS 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


0.04 1 
0.018 
0.012 
0.016 
0.066 


0.680 
0.340 
0.031 
0.946 
0.336 


0.010 
0.015 


0.003 
0.56 5 


0.010 
015 


0.035 
0.575 


0.010 
0.015 


0.125 

0.779 



85 
8 

9 
1 



10.3 



STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 

0. 167 
-0. 172 
-0.253 
-0.008 
-0.322 



-0.296 
-0 .062 



-0.203 
-0.06 1 



-0. 149 
-0.031 



STD 
SE 

0.406 
0. 180 
0. 1 17 
0. 120 
0.335 



099 

108 



096 
109 



097 
109 



- 172 



TABLE 5-1<i DATE = 27N0V85 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
BY AGE AMD LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAM' FRAMINGHAM STUDY 30-YEAR FOLLOWUP 

SEX' MALE 

EVENTi ANGINA PECTORIS UNCOMPLICATED 

RISK FACTOR' ALBUMIN IN URINE, DEFINITE 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



35-44 AT EXAM 



■JS-SH AT EXAM 



SS-i^i AT EXAM 



65-7<. AT EXAM 



RISK' 
FACTOR 


PERSON 
EXAMS 


t OF 
EVENTS 


ANNUAL 
RATE 


PERSON 
EXAMS 


< OF 
EVENTS 


ANNUAL 
RATE 


PERSON 
EXAMS 


1 OF 
EVENTS 


ANNUAL 
RATE 


PERSON 
EXAMS 


t OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


NO 
YES 


4366 
70 


7 
1 


1 
7 


7599 
99 


45 

1 


3 
5 


7838 
184 


10S 

1 


7 
3 


3792 
1 15 


41 5 
1 4 


UNKNOHN 
TOTAL 


i6 
<(472. 



S 



1 


26 
7724 



46 




3 


27 
8049 



109 



7 


6 
3913 



42 5 


RISK 
FACTOR 


75- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


84 AT EXAM 

• OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


85- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


94 AT EXAM 

« OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


35- 
» OF 

EVENTS 


64 COMBINED 65 
AGE- 1 OF 
CRUDE ADJUSTED EVENTS 


-94 COMBINED 

AGE- 
CRUDE ADJU 


NO 
YES 


9S9 
25 


7 



4 




32 

7 






160 
J 


4 
4 


4 

5 


48 

1 


5 
3 


UNKNOHN 
TOTAL 


3 
1017 




7 




J 



39 







163 



4 



4 



49 




5 



( 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


! 35-44 
i 45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 




2.200 

0.538 

-0.939 

-0.220 


1 .076 
1 .016 
1.007 
1.017 


0.041 
0.596 
0.351 
0.829 


0.274 

0.061 

-0.141 

-0.037 


0.1 S4 
0.114 
0.151 
0.172 


35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.051 
-0.386 


0.585 
1 .014 


0.931 
0.704 


0.007 
-0.065 


0.077 
0.172 


35-64 
65-94 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


-0.tl2 
-0.381 ■ 


0.586 
1.014 


0.848 
0.707 


-0.015 
-0.065 


0.077 
0.172 


35-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


-0.904' 
-0.438 


0.722 
1.019 


0.210 
0.667 


-0.119 
-0.074 


0.095 
0.173 



SEX' FEMALE 

EVENT: ANGINA PECTORIS UNCOMPLICATED 

RISK FACTOR: ALBUMIN IN URINE, DEFINITE 

PERSONS AT RISK' PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 
FACTOR 


35- 

PERSOH 
EXAMS 


44 AT EXAM 

« OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


45- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


54 AT EXAM 

• OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


55- 

PERSON 
EXAMS 


64 AT EXAM 

• OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


65-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON 1 OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 


NO 

YES 


5353 
225 


4 

1 



2 


9656 
278 


36 

3 


2 

5 


11263 
225 


115 

5 


5 

7 


6118 
120 


70 

2 


6 
8 


UNKNOHN 
TOTAL 


38 
5616 



5 






25 
9959 


1 
40 


20 
2 


25 
11513 



118 




5 


10 
6248 



72 



6 


RISK 
FACTOR 


75- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


84 AT EXAM 

f OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


85- 

PERSON 
EXAMS 


94 AT EXAM 

1 OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


35- 

1 OF 

EVENTS 


64 COMBINED 65- 
AGE- » OF 
CRUDE ADJUSTED EVENTS 


94 COMBINED 

AGE- 
CRUDE ADJUS 


NO 

YES 


1904 
38 


30 



i 




120 
i 






155 

7 


S 

5 


J 

5 


101 
2 


6 
i 


6 

6 


UNKNOHN 
TOTAL 


9 

1951 



30 


8 


9 
12S 






1 
163 


i 

i 


7 
J 


8 
103 



6 



6 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


- STD 

SE 


35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 




1 .787 
1.070 
0.27 
0.381 


1 .120 
0.604 
0.589 
0.723 


0.111 
0.077 
0.646 
0.598 


0.352 
0.176 
0.037 
0.052 


0.220 
0.100 
0.082 
0.099 


35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.492 
0.001 


0.388 
0.719 


0.205 
0.998 


0.080 
0.000 


0.063 
0.099 


35-64 
65-94 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.702 
■ 0.001- 


0.390 
0.719 


0.072 
0.998 


0.114 
0.000 


0.063 
0.099 


35-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.350' 
-0.357 


0.410 
0.731 


0.393 
0.626 


0.057 
-0.049 


0.066 
0.101 



•173 



TABLE S-15 DATE=Z7N0V«5 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
BT AGE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAM! FRAMINGHAM STUDY iO-YEAR FOLLOHUP 

SEXi MALE 

EVENT: ANGINA PECTORIS UNCOMPLICATED 

RISK FACTOR: HEART ENLARGEMENT BY X-RAY 

PERSONS AT RISK' PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 
FACTOR 

' NO 
! MILD 
DEFINITE 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



35-«:* AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



4063 

185 
219 

5 
<i"i72 



«5-5<i AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



63S5 
650 
687 

7724 



1 
46 



2 
6 
4 

125 
i 



55-64 AT EXAM 
PERSON « OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



5967 

962 

1119 

1 
8049 



73 
17 
19 


109 



6 5-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



2584 
578 
751 


3913 



26 

5 
11 


42 



RISK 

FACTOR 

NO 

MILD 
DEFINITE 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



AOE AT 
EXAM 

35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 



75-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



589 

178 
250 


1017 



35-64 
65-94 



35-64 
65-94 



UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 



BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 

-0.070 

0.388 

0.191 

0.167 

-0.706 



0.361 
O.OSt 



35-64 MULTIVARIATE 
65-94 MULTIVARIATE 



0.230 
0.061 - 



O.tSZ 

0.056 



29 

5 
5 


11 1 
26 
25 


3 
7 
6 



39 


1 
163 


50 
4 


LOGISTIC 


REGRESSIONS 




SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 




0.800 
0.196 
0, 122 
0.134 
0.622 


0.930 
0.048 
0.120 
0.364 
0.257 




0.101 
0.175 


0.001 
0.769 




0.103 
0.175 


0.026 
0.726 




o.ito 

0.183 


0.098 
0.759 





35-64 COMBINED 
« OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



65-94 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



48 
4 



STANDAROIZEO 
COEFFICIENT 

-0.033 

0.236 

0,137 

0.133 
-0.597 



.230 
041 



146 

050 



32 

5 

12 


49 



STD " 
SE 

0.374 

0.120 
0.038 
0.146 
0.526 



065 
141 



066 
141 



0.116 
0.045 



0.070 
0.148 



SEX' FEMALE 

EVENT! ANGINA PECTORIS UNCOMPLICATED 

RISK FACTOR: HEART ENLARGEMENT BY X-RAY 

PERSONS AT RISK' PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 
FACTOR 

NO 

MILD 

DEFINITE 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



35-44 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



5164 
199 
245 

8 
5616 



45-54 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



8017 
943 
993 

6 
9959 



27 
3 

10 


40 



55-6* *T EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



7522 58 
1769 21 
2218 39 



4 
1151S 




118 



65-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



3191 
1150 
1907 


6248 



25 

11 
36 


•72 



RISK 

FACTOR 

NO 

MILD 

DEFINITE 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



AGE AT 
EXAM 

35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
7 5-84 
85-94 

35-64 
65-94 



75-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



702 
373 
876 


1951 



35-64 
65-94 



UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 



BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 



7 

6 

17 


30 



S 
8 

10 



8 5-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



35-64 COMBINED 
• OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 

0.766 
0.515 

0.418 
0.453 
0.325 



0.614 
0.434 



35-64 MULTIVARIATE 
65-94 MULTIVARIATE 



0.428 
0.445- 



0.376 



32 
30 
61 


89 
24 
50 



1ZS 



163 


LOGISTIC 


REGRESSIONS 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


0.590 
0.191 
0.104 
0.133 
0.218 


0.194 
0.007 
0.001 
0.001 
0.1i7 


0.088 
0.113 


0.001 
0.001 


0.091 
0.115 


0.001 
0.001 


0.100 
0.120 


0.006 
0.002 



65-94 C0M8IHED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



32 

17 
54 


103 



STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 

0.338 
0.329 
0.333 
0.398 
0.291 



0.428 
0.388 



0.299 
0.397 



0.191 
0.335 



STD 
SE 

0.261 
0.122 
0.0S3 
0,117 
0.(95 



061 
101 



064 
102 



070 
107 



174 - 



TABLE 8-16 DATE-13MAY8 5 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR tvENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
BY ACE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAM: FRAMINGHAM STUDY JO-YEAR FOLLOHUP 

SEXi MALE 

EVENT' ANOINA PECTORIS UNCOMPLICATED 

RISK FACTORi LEFT VENTRICULAR HYPERTROPHY BY ELECTROCARDIOGRAM 

PERSONS AT RISKi PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 

FACTOR 


PERSON 
EXAMS 


NO 

BORDER 

DEFINITE 


'iS66 
78 
28 


UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



**72 


RISK 
FACTOR 


75 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


NO 

BORDER 

DEFINITE 


949 
37 
31 


UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



1017 



35-** AT EXAM 

< OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 

8 1 






3 1 



75-8* AT EXAM 

I OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 



*5-5* AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



55-4* AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



65-7* AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



7*97 
132 
95 


772* 



*2 
1 
3 


*4 



3 

* 

14 



7493 
210 
1*4 


80*9 



103 
1 
5 


109 



7 

2 

17 



3703 
90 
120 


3913 



r 




*2 



H 



85-9* AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



35-4* COMBINED 
* OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFI 
OF RISK 


55-** 
*5-5* 
55-6* 
45-7* 
75-5* 
SJ-9* 




0.822 

0.318 

-0.799 


35-6* 
65-9* 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.553 
-0.9*7 


35-4* 
45-9* 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.**3 
-0.939 



35-4* MULTIVARIATE 0.254 
45-9* MULTIVARIATE -1.080 



3* 
2 

3 


153 
2 
8 



39 



143 


LOGISTIC 


REGRESSIONS 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


0.302 
0.2*5 
0.812 


0.004 
0. 193 
0.325 


■" 


- 


0. 190 
0.828 


0.00* 
0.253 


0. 191 
0.827 


0.020 
0.254 


0.205 
0.833 


0.213 
0. 195 



65-9* COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



* 

2 

IS 



* 
2 
13 



STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 



0.209 

0.098 

-0.297 



0. 1*8 
-0.357 



0. 119 
-O.JS* 



0.048 
-0.*07 




*9 



STD 
SE 



0.077 
0.075 
0.302 



051 
312 



051 
312 



055 
31* 



SEXi FEMALE 

EVENT! ANOINA PECTORIS UNCOMPLICATED 

RISK FACTOR- LEFT VENTRICULAR HYPERTROPHY BY ELECTROCARDIOGRAM 

PERSONS AT RISK! PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 
FACTOA 

NO 

BORDER 
DEFINITE 

UNKNOHN 
TOTAL 



35-** AT EXAM *5-5* AT EXAM 

PERSON • OF ANNUAL PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXW1S EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



5543 

38 
15 


56 16 



9798 
107 
5* 


9959 



37 
1 
2 


*0 



2 

5 
19 



55-4* AT EXAM 65-7* AT EXAM 

PERSON • OF ANNUAL PERSON • OF ANNUAL 

EXAMS Events rate exams events rate 



11137 107 
224 * 
150 7 




11513 




I IS 



5 

9 
23 



3 



3944 
13* 
1*8 


62*8 



41 
2 
9 


72 



5 

7 

30 



75-8* AT EXAM 
RISK PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
FACTOR EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



85-9* AT EXAM 35-o* COMBINED 

PERSON I OF ANNUAL I OF ACE- 

EXAMS EVENTS RATE EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



65r9* COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



NO 

BORDER 

DEFINITE 

UNKHOHH 
TOTAL 



ACE AT 
EXAM 

35-** 
*5-5* 
55-4* 
45-7* 
75-8* 
85-9* 



1833 

*9 
69 


1951 



35-6* 
45-9* 



35-4* 
65-9* 



35-6* 
45-9* 



28 
I 
1 


30 



8 

10 
7 



COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 



1. 129 

0.78* 
O.SSS 
0.024 



UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 



BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 



MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 



994 
675 



0.830 
0.474 



0.*51 
0.591 



1 11 
4 

6 


1*9 

5 
9 



123 



143 


LOGISTIC 


REGRESSIONS 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


0.354 
0. 191 
0. 183 
0.*5* 


0.002 
0.001 
0.001 
0.95* 


0. 147 
0. 148 


0.001 
0.001 


0.149 
0. 149 


0.001 
0.001 


0. 199 
0.178 


0.023 
0.001 



3 

7 

21 



3 

4 

-17 



STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 



0.202 
0.207 
0.295 
O.QIO 



0.212 
0.238 



, 176 
.238 



096 
208 



90 

3 

10 


103 



4 
8 

22 



STD 
S£ 



a.o«4 

0.050 
O.Oil 
O.ISO 



0.055 
0.059 



0.036 
0.059 



0.042 
0.065 



4 
8 

2* 



175 



TABLE 8-17 DATE=12DEC85 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
BY AGE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAM: FRAMINGHAM STUDY 30-YEAR FOLLOHUP 

SEX: MALE 

EVENT: ANGINA PECTORIS UNCOMPLICATED 

RISK FACTOR: INTRAVENTRICULAR CONDUCTION DEFECT (IIITH QRS INTERVAL MORE THAN 0.11 SECOND) 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 
FACTOR 


PERSON 
EXAMS 


NO 

INCOMPLETE 

COMPLETE 


<<161 

275 

34 


UtIKNOHH 
TOTAL 





RISK 
FACTOR 


75 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


NO 

INCOMPLETE 
COMPLETE 


918 
21 
78 


UIIKNOUN 

TOTAL 



1 017 



SS-i"* AT EXAM 

I OF ANNUAL 

EVENTS RATE 

7 1 
1 2 





8 I 



75-8'* AT EXAM 

• OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 



45-5>i AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



7215 

65 


772<4 



<i1 
5 







85-9<» AT EXAM 
PERSON « OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

31 
2 
6 

a 

39 



55-61 AT EXAM 65-7<i AT EXAM 

PERSON « OF ANNUAL PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



7386 
<i56 
207 


80<i9 



99 

6 


109 



7 

7 

10 



J5-6<i COMBINED 
S OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



l:<7 

12 

4 



lis 



3566 
183 
16<< 


J91J 



30 

7 
5 





19 
IS 



65-9* COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



36 
7 
6 


<<9 



17 
12 



15 
13 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


35-<i<i 
'.5-5'i 

65-7<* 
75-8:; 
85-9't 




0.417 
0.J26 
0.127 
0.781 
0.299 


930 
0.:(14 
0.229 
0.209 
0.558 


0.654 
0.431 
.579 
0.001 
0.592 


0.124 
0.095 
0.049 
0.347 
0. 163 


0.275 
0. 121 
0.088 
0.093 
0.304 


35-6:i 
65-9:1 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.259 
0.675 


0.199 
0.194 


0.192 
0.001 


0.087 
0.317 


0.066 
0.091 


35-6") 
65-9<. 


BIVARIATE 
DIVARIATE 


0.159 
0.694 


0.195 
0.1 9« 


0.415 
0.001 


0.053 
0.327 


0.065 
0.092 


65-9:* 


MMl TIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.084 
0.710 . 


0.2O7 
0.199 


0.683 
O.OOI 


O.028 
0.334 


0.069 
0.093 



SEX: FEMALE 

EVENT: ANGINA PECTORIS UNCOMPLICATED 

RISK FACTOR: INTRAVENTRICULAR CONDUCTION DEFECT (WITH ORS INTERVAL MORE THAN O.tl SECOND) 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 
FACTOR 

NO 

INCOMPLETE 

COMPLETE 



35-44 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



5529 

75 
12 





13 





45-54 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



9771 

144 

44 



37 

1 
2 



2 

3 

23 



55-64 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



II 183 
187 
143 



1 1 1 
1 
6 



5 

3 

21 



65-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



6027 
115 
106 



69 
1 
2 



UtIKNOMH 
TOTAL 




9959 




11513 




1 18 



a 

6248 




72 



RISK 
FACTOR 

NO 

INCOMPLETE 

COMPLETE 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



AGE AT 
EXAM 

35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 



7 5-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF -ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1847 
36 
68 


19SI 



35-64 
65-94 



35-64 
65-94 



35-64 
45-94 



28 

1 
I 


30 



8 

14 

7 



85-94 AT EXAM 35-44 COMBINED 

PERSON I OF ANNUAL I OF AGE- 

EXAMS EVENTS RATE EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 



BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 



MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 



COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 

2.293 
1 .164 
0.424 
0. 178 
0.075 



0.935 
0.218 



0.773 
0.214 



0.632 
0.191 



117 
1 

5 


15) 
4 
S 



123 



143 


LOGISTIC 


REGRESSIONS 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


0.423 
0.367 
0.221 
0.354 
0.446 


0.001 
0.001 
0.005 
0.615 
0.344 


0.180 
0.241 


0.001 
0.404 


0.180 
0.242 


0.001 
0.408 


0.202 
0.244 


0.002 
0.449 



3 
5 

20 



5 
S 

17 



45-94 COMBINED 
t OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



97 
3 
3 


103 



STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 

0.3S7 
0.207 
0.159 
0.052 
0.029 



0.195 
0.049 



0.141 
0.049 



132 
0.041. 



10 
8 



STD 
SE 

0.092 
0.045 
0.054 
0. 102 
0.173 



038 

083 



038 
083 



042 
084 



4 

14 
9 



- 176 



TABLE 8-1S DATE=27N0V85 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
BY AGE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAM' FRAMINGHAM STUDY 30-YEAR FOLLOWUP 

SEX" MALE 

EVENT: ANGINA PECTORIS UNCOMPLICATED 

RISK FACTOR: DEFINITE NONSPECIFIC T-WAVE OR ST-SEGMENT ABNORMALITY BY ELECTROCARDIOGRAM 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 
FACTOR 


35- 

PERSON 
EXAMS 


44 AT EXAM 

1 OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


45- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


54 AT EXAM 

1 OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


55- 

PERSON 
EXAMS 


64 


AT EXAM 
t OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


65-7<: 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


AT EXAM 
1 OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


NO 
YES 


4342 

110 


3 



1 



7352 
372 


39 

7 


3 

9 


7462 
587 




94 
IS 


6 
13 


3472 
441 


37 

5 


5 
6 


UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



4472 



8 


1 



7724 



46 


3 



8049 





109 


7 



3913 



42 


5 


RISK 

FACTOR 


75- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


84 AT EXAM 

i OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


85- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


94 AT EXAM 

t OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


35- 

1 OF 

EVENTS 


64 


COMBINED 65- 
AGE- t OF 
CRUDE ADJUSTED EVENTS 


94 COMBINED 

AGE- 
CRUDE ADJUSTED 


NO 
YES 


430 
187 


7 



4' 



2S 
11 






141 
22 




4 
10 


4 
9 


44 
5 


5 
4 


5 
4 


UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



1017 



7 


3 



39 






.0 
1«3 




4 


4 



49 


5 


5 



( 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 

EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
O*' RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUe 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


35-44 

45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
35-94 




1.280 
0.721 
0.063 


0.414 
0.281 
0.479 


0.002 
0.010 
0.396 


0.274 
0.187 
0.020 


0.089 
0.073 
0.152 


35-44 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


1.043 
-0.264 


0.231 
0.474 


0.001 
0.578 


0.233 
-0.088 


0.052 
0. 159 


35-64 
65-94 


8IVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.822 
-0.242- 


0,233 
0.476 


0.001 
0.612 


0.184 
-0.081 


0.052 
0.159 


35-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.585* 
-0.319 


0.243 
* 0.479 


0.016 
0.506 


0.131 
-0.107 


0.054 
0.160 



SEX: FEMALE 

EVENT 1 ANGINA PECTORIS UNCOMPLICATED 

RISK FACTOR: DEFINITE NONSPECIFIC T-HAVE OR ST-SEG^ENT ABNORMALITY BY ELECTROCARDIOGRAM 

PERSONS AT RISK' PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 

FACTOR 



NO 

YES 



35-44 AT EXAM 
PERSON « OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



5517 
99 



45-54 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



9543 
416 



38 
2 



55-64 At EXAM 
PERSON « OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



10647 
866 



104 
14 



65-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON • Of ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



5528 
720 



57 

15 



5 

10 



UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 




5616 




9959 




40 




11513 




118 




6248 




72 



RISK 
FACTOR 



NO 
YES 



UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



AGE AT 
EXAM 

35-44 

45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 

35-64 
65-94 

35-64 
65-94 

35-64 
65-94 



75-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF. ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1632 
319 




1951 



22 
8 




30 



7 
13 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



35-64 COMBINED 
» OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 



0.189 
0.510 
0.714 
0.633 



UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 



BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 



MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 



712 
633 



415 
685- 



323 
629 



97 
26 


147 



123 



t«3 


LOGISTIC 


REGRESSIONS 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


0.727 
0.287 
0.293 
0.417 


■ 0.795 
0.075 
0.015 
0.130 


0.265 
0.239 


0.007 
0.004 


0.266 
0.240 


0.119 
0.004 


0.269 
0.241 


0.230 
0.009 



65-94 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



80 

23 




103 



STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 



0.038 
0.135 
0.228 
0.234 



0.157 
0.228 



0.091 
0.229 



0.071 
0.210 



6 
11 



STD 
SE 



0.145 
0.076 
0.094 
0.154 



0.058 
0.080 



0.059 
0.030 



0.059 
0.081 



6 
IS 



C 



177 - 



TABLE 9-1 DATE=05JAN8« 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
BY AGE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAMi FRAMINGHAM STUDT JO-TEAR FOLLOHUP 

3EX: MALE 

EVENT! SUDDEN DEATH FROM CORONARY HEART DISEASE 

RISK FACTOR: SYSTOLIC BLOOD PRESSURE. FIRST EXAMINER CMM HG) 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 
FACTOR 

7^-119 
120-1 J9 
1^0-159 
160-179 
180-300 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



J5-<i'» AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

1223 
2165 

S'l.l 

191 
52 


<i'i72 



<i5-5<i AT EXAM 
PERSON i OF ANNUAL 

EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



55-64 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 

EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



65-71 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1769 


1 





1110 


1 





518 


1 


1 


3117 


10 


1 


3166 


11 


2 


1311 


5 


2 


1732 


3 


1 


2090 


3 


2 


1191 


10 


1 


567 


2 


2 


916 


1 


2 


552 


6 


5 


239 








137 


5 


6 


278 


1 


7 


a 





„ 








. 








- 


7721 


16 


1 


S019 


32 


Z 


3913 


26 


3 



RISK 
FACTOR 

71-119 
120-139 
110-159 
160-179 
180-300 

UNKNOMN 
TOTAL 



75-81 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



120 


2 




315 


2 




315 


2 




153 


2 




81 


3 


18 








- 


1017 


11 


5 



85-91 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

7 
15 
11 

1 

2 


39 



35-61 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



65-91 COMBINED 
« OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



1 








3 


2 


2 


25 


1 


1 


7 


2 


2 


11 


1 


1 


12 


1 


1 


6 


2 


2 


8 


6 


6 


S 


i 


2 


7 


10 


9 





« 







. 




51 


1 


1 


37 


1 


1 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


35-11 
15-51 
55-61 
65-71 
75-81 




0.010 
0.02O 
0.022 
0.017 


0.012 
0.006 
0.007 
0.012 


0.399 
0,002 
,001 
0. 166 


0.191 
0.139 
0.191 
0.383 


0.227 
0.111 
0.156 
0.274 


85-91 














55-61 
65-91 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.019 
0.020 


O.OOS 
0.006 


0.001 
0.001 


0.388 
0.167 


0.112 
0.135 


35-61 
65-91 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.015 
0.021 


0.006 
0.00« 


0.009 
0.001 


0.300 
0.179 


0.115 
0.138 


35-61 
65-91 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.009 
0.016 


0.006 
0.006 


0.150 
0.013 


0.182 
0.360 


0.126 
0.116 



SEX: FEMALE 

EVENT: SUDDEN DEATH FROM CORONARY HEART DISEASE 

RISK FACTOR: SYSTOLIC BLOOD PRESSURE, FIRST EXAMINER (MM HGJ 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 
FACTOR 

71-1 19 
120-139 
110-159 
160-179 
180-300 

UNKNOHN 
TOTAL 



35-11 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

2193 

2211 

673 

156 

50 


5616 



15-51 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



55-61 4T EXAM 
PERSON i OF ANNUAL 

EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



6 5-71 AT EXAM 
PERSON » OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



2714 

3982 

2053 

764 

112 


1 
2 

1 


I 







1 


1979 
1056 
3025 
1560 
893 


2 
1 
9 
1 



1 


1 





617 
1717 
2013 
1155 

686 


1 
1 
3 

3 
3 


1 
1 
1 
1 
2 



9959 



5 






11513 




13 


1 


0' 
6218 




11 


1 



RISK 
FACTOR 

71-119 
120-139 
110-159 
160-179 
180-300 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



7 5-81 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



133 








165 


2 


2 


626 


3 


2 


151 


7 


8 


276 


3 


5 








. 


1951 


15 


1 



85-91 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

8 

38 
29 
31 
17 


123 



35-61 COMBINED 
• OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE - ADJUSTED 



65-91 COMBINED 
« OF AGE- _ 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



3 





• 




1 


1 


S 










2 


2 


10 


1 


1 




1 


) 


1 








1 1 


3 


3 


1 










3 


3 





_ 




^ « 


_ 




IS 








31 


2 


2 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


35-11 
15-51 
55-61 
65-71 
75-81 
85-91 




0.019 
0.000 
0.009 
0.011 


0.013 
0.01 1 
0.010 
0.009 


0, 1 39 
0,978 
0.377 
0,261 


0.111 
0,008 
0.220 
0.261 


0.300 
0.277 
0.219 
0,236 


35-61 
65-91 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.013 
0,011 


0.008 
0.007 


0,118 
0,098 


0.301 
0,272 


0,195 
0,161 


35-61 
65-91 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


O.OOS 
0.009 


0,009 
0.0O7 


0,608 
0, 181 


0.111 
0.225 


0,216 
0.167 


35-61 


MULTIVARIATE 
Mill TIWABIATE 


0.006 
O.OOS 


0.010 
0.007 


0,515 
0.507 


0.117 
0.117 


0.225 

0. 176 



178 



RISK 
FACTOR 

ZO-Ti 
75-81 

95-104 
105-160 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



TABLE 9-2 DATE=05JAN86 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
Br AGE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAMi FRAMINGHAM STUDT iO-YEAR FOLLOWUP 

SEXi MALE 

EVENT: SUDDEN DEATH FROM CORONARY HEART DISEASE 

RISK FACTOR: DIASTOLIC BLOOD PRESSURE, FIRST EXAMINER (MM HG) 

PERSONS AT RISKi PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



J5-«'i AT EXAM 
PERSON i OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

1012 
1604 
1187 

499 

170 


4472 



'i5-S4 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



55-64 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



65-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1478 


1 





1847 


8 


2 


1225 


4 


2 


2766 


7 


1 


2845 


7 


1 


132J 


5 


2 


2062 


6 


1 


1964 


8 


2 


89J 


6 


3 


1008 


2 


1 


982 


6 


3 


343 


8 


12 


410 








41 1 


J 


4 


129 


3 


12 








- 








. 








_ 


7724 


16 


1 


8049 


12 


2 


3913 


26 


3 



c 



RISK 
FACTOR 

20-74 
75-84 
85-94 
95-104 
105-160 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



75-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



422 


3 


4 


331 


3 


5 


204 


3 


7 


44 


2 


23 


16 














. 


1017 


11 


5 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

22 
12 

5 



Q 


39 



35-64 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



9 
17 
14 
■S 

i 


51 



65-94 COMBINED 
t OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



7 
8 

9 

10 

3 


17 



2 

2 

4 

13 

10 



2 
2 

4 

14 

9 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 

COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 




0.008 
0.022 
0.050 
0.03} 


0.021 
0.013 
0.013 
0.024 


0.704 
0.094 
0.001 
0.119 


0.093 
0.271 
0.609 
0.445 


0.244 
0.162 
0.156 
0.285 


35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.016 
0.045 


0.011 
0.011 


0.142 
0.001 


0.194 
0.545 


0.132 
0.137 


35-64 
65-94 


BIVARIATE 
flIVARlATE 


0.016 
O.OSI 


0.011 
0.012 


0.136 
0.001 


0.193 
0.624 


0. 1 30 
0.141 


35-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.008 
0.044 


0.01 1 
0.012 


0.499 
0.001 


0.089 
0.538 


0.132 
0.143 



SEX! FEMALE 

EVENT: SUDDEN DEATH FROM CORONARY HEART DISEASE 

RISK FACTOR: DIASTOLIC BLOOD PRESSURE. FIRST EXAMINER (MM HG) 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 
FACTOR 

20-74 
75-84 
85-94 
95-104 
105-160 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



RISK 
FACTOR 

20-74 
75-84 
85-94 
95-104 
105-160 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



AGE AT 
EXAM 

35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 

55-64 
65-94 

35-64 
65-94 

35-64 
65-94 



35-44 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

2164 
2030 

987 

324 

111 


5616 



75-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



724 


5 


3 


596 


4 


3 


443 


4 


5 


146 


2 


7 


42 














_ 


1951 


15 


4 



45-54 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



2639 

3541 

2361 

926 

492 



55-64 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



6 5-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 




9959 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1 





296 9 




1 


2 





3853 







1 





2840 




1 




1 



1 


1272 
579 





1 





. 








. 


5 





11513 


13 


1 



COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 



0.021 
0.012 
0.003 
0.012 



UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 



BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 



MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 



021 
002 



015 
004 



018 
003 



53 

43 

20 

7 




4 
5 

6 
1 
2 



123 



1> 


LOGISTIC 


REGRESSIONS 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VAIUE 


0.032 
0.021 
0.022 
0.021 


0.507 
0.571 
0.907 
0.573 


0.017 
0.015 


0.231 
0.880 


0.018 
0.015 


0.398 
0.798 


0.018 
0.015 


0.325 
0.862 



35-64 COMBINED 
t OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE AOJl 



a 




1 







1831 

2135 

1439 

600 

243 


4 
6 

1 
2 

1 


1 
1 

2 
2 






' 
6248 



14 


1 


SI 


ED 


65- 
1 OP 
EVENTS 


■94 COMBINED 

ACE- 
CRUDE ADJUSTED 







1 




11 
10 

5 •• 

4 

1 


2 
2 

1 

3 
2 


2 
2 
1, 
3 
2 








31 


2 


2 



STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 



0.263 
0. 150 
0,031 
0. 142 



STD 
SE 



0.396 
0.264 
0.265 
0.252 



0.254 
-0.027 



0.185 
0.046 



0.222 
0.031 



212 
131 



219 

181 



226 
181 



- 179 



TABLE 9-3A DATE=05JAN86 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
SY AGE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAM: FRAMINGHAM STUDY 30-YEAR FOLLOWUP 

SEX: MALE 

EVENT: SUDDEN DEATH FROM CORONARY HEART DISEASE 

RISK FACTOR: HYPERTENSION WITH ANTIHYPERTENSIVE TREATMENT 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 
FACTOR 

NO 

MILD 
DEFINITE 
TREATED 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



35-44 AT EXAM 45-54 AT EXAM 

PERSON I OF ANNUAL PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



2651 

1301 

500 

20 




4472 



55-64 AT EXAM 
PERSON i OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



65-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



4122 

2205 

1139 

Z5S 


6 

7 
3 




I 
2 
1 



3773 

2301 

1268 

707 


7 

13 

8 

4 


1 
3 

3 

3 


1512 

1255 

552 

594 


1 
9 

5 
1 1 



4 
5 
9 



7724 



16 


1 



8049 



32 


2 



3913 



26 


3 



RISK 
FACTOR 

NO 

MILD 

DEFINITE 
TREATED 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



75-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



37 
333 
125 
189 


1017 



3 
2 
2 
4 


11 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

18 
1 1 

3 

7 


39 



35-64 COMBINED 
♦ OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



65-94 COMBINED 
» OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



15 


1 


1 


4 


1 


1 


21 


2 


2 


1 1 


3 


3 


11 


2 


2 


7 


5 


5 


4 


2 


1 


15 


9 


9 





. 







_ 




51 


1 


1 


37 


4 


4 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


35-44 
45-54 
,55-64 
65-74 
75-84 




0.264 
0.550 
1 .135 
0.505 


0.309 
0.214 
0.300 
0.386 


0.392 
0.010 
0.001 
0.191 


0.203 
0.448 
0.930 
0.414 


0.237 
0.175 
0.246 
0.316 


85-94 














35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.500 
0.930 


0.169 
0.234 


0.003 
0.001 


0.389 
0.762 


0.132 
0.191 


35-64 
65-94 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.400 
0.926 


0.169 
0.233 


0.018 
0.001 


0.311 
0.759 


0.132 
0.191 


35-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.275 
0.849 


0.179 
0.238 


0.124 
0.001 


0.214 
0.695 


0.139 
0.195 



SEX: FEMALE 

EVENT: SUDDEN DEATH FROM CORONARY HEART DISEASE 

RISK FACTOR: HYPERTENSION WITH ANTIHYPERTENSIVE TREATMENT 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 
FACTOR 

NO 

MILD 
DEFINITE 
TREATED 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



35-44 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

4250 

1 001 

316 

49 


5616 



45-54 AT EXAM 
PERSON ♦ OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



5622 

2579 

1166 

59Z 




9959 



2 

I 

1 

1 1 



5 



55-64 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



4863 
3290 
1835 
1525 


1 1513 



3 

7 1 

2 1 

1 



13 1 



65-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON » OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1751 
1911 
1036 
1550 


6248 



3 
2 

3 
6 


14 



RISK 
FACTOR 

NO 

MILD 

DEFINITE 

TREATED 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



AGE AT 
EXAM 

35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-34 
85-94 



7 5-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF 'ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



395 

585 
375 
596 


1951 



35-64 
65-94 



35-64 
65-94 



35-64 
65-94 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1 
3 
3 
8 


15 



COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 



35-64 COMBINED 
• OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 



BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 



MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 



0.582 
0.185 
0.476 
0.771 



0.495 
0.586 



0.224 
0.513 



0.258 
0.391 



31 
28 
24 
40 


5 
8 
3 
2 



123 



IS 


LOGISTIC 


REGRESSIONS 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


0.531 
0.329 

0.361 
0.437 


0.274 
0.574 
. 138 
0.078 


0.277 
0.258 


0.074 
0.023 


0.284 
0.259 


0.431 
0.047 


0.287 
0.263 


0.368 
0.131 



65-94 COMBINED 
» OF AGr- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 










.447 
.155 
.391 
.604 



0, 


393 

.479 






.178 
419 


0, 
0. 


205 
,519 



5 
5 

7 
14 

-0 
31 



STD 
SE 



0.408 
0.275 
0.297 
0.342 



0.220 
0.210 



0.226 
0.211 



0.228 
0.215 



180 



RISK 

FACTOR 

NO 

MILD 

DEFINITE 

UNKNOHN 
TOTAL 



TABLE 9-3B DATE^OSJANSA 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
BY AGE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAMi FRAMINGHAM STUDY JO-YEAR FOLLOWUP 

SEX: MALE 

EVENT: SUDDEN DEATH FROM CORONARY HEART DISEASE 

RISK FACTOR: HYPERTENSION IGNORING TREATMENT 

PERSONS AT risk: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



JS-"** AT EXAM 
PERSON » OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

2653 
1310 • 
509 


4<*72 



45-54 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



55-64 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



65-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON ♦ OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



4154 
2284 
I2S6 


6 
7 
3 


1 

2 
1 


3909 
2553 
1557 


9 

1 4 
9 


1 
3 

3 


1631 

1499 

783 


3 

14 

9 


1 
5 
6 



7724 



16 


1 



8049 



32 


2 



3913 



26 


J 



c 



RISK 
FACTOR 

NO 

MILD 

DEFINITE 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



75-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



412 
418 
187 


1017 



4 5 
2 2 

5 13 



11 5 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

21 

15 

3 


39 



35-64 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



17 
22 
12 


51 



65-94 COMBINED 
» OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



7 
16 
14 


37 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 

COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 




0.303 
0.462 
0.764 
0.562 


0.312 
0.219 
0.262 
0.404 


0.332 
0.035 
0.004 
0.164 


0.228 
0.356 
0.577 
0.413 


0.235 
0.169 
0. 198 
0.297 


85-94 














3S-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.433 
0.704 


0.174 
0.219 


0.013 
0.001 


0.325 
0.529 


0.130 
0.164 


35-64 
65-94 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.361 
0.719 


0.174 
0.219 


0.038 
0.001 


0.271 
0.540 


0.131 
0.165 


35-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.208 
0.600 


0.185 
0.226 


0.261 
0.003 


0.156 
0.450 


0.139 
0.170 



SEX: FEMALE 

EVENT: SUDDEN DEATH FROM CORONARY HEART DISEASE 

RISK FACTOR: HYPERTENSION IGNORING TREATMENT 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 

FACTOR 

NO 

MILD 
DEFINITE 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



35-44 AT EXAM 
PERSON » OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

4272 

1016 
328 


5616 



45-54 AT EXAM 
PERSON f OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



5804 
2763 
1392 


9959 



2 . 

2 

1 



5 



55-64 AT EXAM 
PERSON » OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



5245 
3860 
2408 


11513 



3 
8 
2 


13 



65-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON » OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



2035 
2549 
1664 


6248 




14 



RISK 

FACTOR 

NO 

MILO 

DEFINITE 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



AGE AT 
EXAM 

35-44 

45-54 ■ 

55-64 

65-74 

75-34 

85-94 



7 5-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON ( OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



35-64 
65-94 



35-64 
65-94 



35-64 
65-94 



507 
827 
617 



1951 



2 

6 
7 


15 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



35-64 COMBINED 
« OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 



0.412 
0.271 
0.345 
0.511 



UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 



BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 



MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 



491 
445 



252 

390 



286 
25S 



37 
45 
41 


5 
10 

3 



123 



18 


LOGISTIC 


REGRESSIONS 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


0.558 
0.346 
0.352 
0.365 


0.460 
0.434 
0.327 
0.l«1 


0.289 
0.241 


0.089 
0.065 


0.297 
0.243 


0.397 
0.108 


. 302 
0.249 


. 0.542 
0.299 



65-94 COMBINED 
• OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 



0.299 
0.210 
0.265 
0.387 



0.363 
0.341 



0.187 
0.299 



0.212 
0. 198 



7 
10 
14 


31 



STD 
SE 



0.405 
0.269 
0.270 
0.276 



214 
185 



220 
186 



223 
191 



- 181 - 



TABIE 9-<i DATE = 05JAN8« 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
BY AGE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAM' FRAMINGMAM STUDY iO-YEAR FOLLOWUP 

SEX' MALE 

EVENT' SUDDEN DEATH FROM CORONARY HEART DISEASE 

RISK FACTOR: SERUM CHOLESTEROL 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



JS-^'i AT EXAM 
RISK PERSON < OF ANNUAL 
FACTOR EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



<i5-5<i AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



55-64 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



65-T, AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



a'i-20<t 
205-23'i 

235-26'4 
265-291 
295-ll2'4 

UNKNOMN 
TOTAL 



1253 

12<»7 

872 

175 

291 

331 
1172 



1747 
2306 
171S 
1001 
557 


2 

5 
1 
1 
1 


1 
1 
1 

1 


2255 

2105 

1889 

918 

151 


1 
12 

1 1 
5 
3 



2 

3 
3 
3 


1231 

1 171 

873 

128 

191 


11 
6 
6 
2 

1 


1 

3 
3 
2 

3 


318 
7721 



16 




1 


128 
8019 



32 



2 


16 
3913 



26 




3 



1 



RISK 
FACTOR 

81-201 
205-231 
235-261 
265-291 
295-1121 

UNKNOMN 
TOTAL 



75-81 AT EXAM 85-91 AT EXAM 35-61 COMBINED 

PERSON » OF ANNUAL PERSON I OF ANNUAL » OF AGE- 

EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



390 

332 

177 

96 

22 


1017 



65-91 COMBINED 
t OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



1 
1 
1 
2 



11 



17 

1 1 

5 

6 




39 



3 








15 


5 


5 


17 


1 


1 


10 


3 


3 


17 


2 


2 


7 


3 


3 


6 


1 


1 


1 


1 


1 


8 


3 


3 


1 


2 


2 




















51 


1 


1 


37 


1 


1 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


5TD 
SE 


35-11 
15-51 
55-61 
65-71 
75-81 




0.011 

0.009 

-0.001 

0.002 


0.003 
0.001 
0.005 
O.OOS 


0.001 
0.0O9 
0.372 
0.788 


0.180 

0.382 

-0.181 

0.081 


0.111 
0.117 
0.202 
0.299 


85-91 














35-61 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


O.01O 
-0.003 


0.002 
0.004 


0.001 
0,178 


0.121 
-0.119 


0.099 
0.168 


35-61 
65-91 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.01 1 
-0.002 


0.002 
0.001 


0.001 
0.620 


0.151 
-0.081 


0.101 
0.168 


35-61 
65-91 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


O.OIO 
-0.002 


0.002 
0.001 


0.001 
0.618 


0.133 
-0.081 


0.101 
0.168 



SEX: FEMALE 

EVENT' SUDDEN DEATH FROM CORONARY HEART DISEASE 

RISK FACTOR' SERUM CHOLESTEROL 

PERSONS AT RISK' PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



35-11 AT EXAM 15-51 AT EXAM 

RISK PERSON I OF ANNUAL PERSON t OF ANNUAL 

FACTOR EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



55-61 AT EXAM 65-71 AT EXAM 

PERSON • OF ANNUAL PERSON I OF ANNUAL 

EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



81-201 
205-231 
235-261 
265-291 
295-1121 

UNKNOMN 
TOTAL 



2350 

1117 

806 

372 

171 

500 
5616 



2091 
2558 
2259 
1173 
1101 



1 
2 


2 







1 


1625 
2615 
2933 
2210 
1866 


1 
2 
2 
6 
2 






1 
1 


789 
1101 
1703 
1287 
1031 


1 
2 
3 
3 
1 


1 

1 
1 
1 
2 


171 
9959 



5 






229 
11513 



13 




1 


37 
6218 


• 1 

11 


11 
1 



75-81 AT EXAM 
RISK PERSON « OF ANNUAL 
FACTOR EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



85-91 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



35-61 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



65-91 COMBINED 
« OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



81-201 
205-231 
235-261 
265-291 
295-1121 

UNKNOMN 
TOTAL 



361 
186 
512 
350 
205 

7 
1951 



1 
5 

6 
3 




15 



16 

23 

35 

9 

5 


123 



1 
3 

1 
6 

1 


IS 



1 
7 
9 
6 
1 

t- 
31 



2 
2 
2 
2 
2 

It 
2 



1 
2 

2 
2 
1 

10 
2 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 

COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


35-11 
15-51 
55-61 
65-71 
75-81 
85-91 




0.006 

0.006 

0.009 

-0.001 


0.001 
0.006 
0.006 
0.006 


0.105 
0.311 
0.136 
0.818 


0.275 

0.257 

0.332 

-0.050 


0.170 
0.255 
0.256 
0.261 


35-61 
6S-91 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.007 
-0.001 


0.002 
0.001 


0.006 
0.887 


0.311 
-0.026 


0.111 
0.131 


55-61 
65-91 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.006 
0.002 


0.001 
0.001 


0.087 
0.655 


0.282 
0.082 


0.165 
0.183 


35-61 
65-91 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.006 
0.003 


0.001 
0.001 


0.113 
0.519 


0.285 
0.111 


0.130 
0.185 



- 182 



RISK 
FACTOR 

25-42 
43-44 
45-46 
47-48 
49-70 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



TABLE 9-5 DATE=05JAN86 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
BY AGE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAM> FRAMINGHAM STUDY JO-TEAR FOLLOWUP 

SEX: MALE 

EVENT i SUDDEN DEATH FROM CORONARY HEART DISEASE 
RISK FACTOR: HEMATOCRIT 
. PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



35-44 AT EXAM 
PERSON » OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

623 
546 
983 
775 
1175 

370 
4472 



45-54 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



55-64 AT EXAM 65-74 AT EXAM 

PERSON I OF ANNUAL PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



942 


3 


2 


1018 


3 


1 


450 


2 


2 


967 


2 


1 


985 


5 


3 


493 


2 


2 


1854 


4 


1 


1953 


6 


2 


963 


5 


3 


1510 


2 


1 


1599 


4 


1 


861 


2 


1 


2066 


5 


I 


2338 


14 


3 


1127 


15 


7 


385 








156 








19 








7724 


16 


1 


8049 


32 


2 


3913 


26 


3 



( 



1 



RISK 
FACTOR 

25-42 
43-44 
45-46 
47-48 
49-70 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



7 5-54 AT EXAM 8 5-94 AT EXAM 

PERSON ♦ OF ANNUAL PERSON » OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

16 
5 

7 
7 




39 



214 


3 


7 


1 19 


2 


8 


240 


1 


2 


197 


2 


5 


247 


3 


6 








_ 


1017 


11 


5 



35-64 COMBINED 
t OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



65-94 COMBINED 
♦ OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



7 


1 


I 


5 


4 


3 


7 


1 


1 


4 


3 


3 


to 


1 


1 


6 


2 


2 


6 


1 


1 


4 


2 


2 


21 


Z 


2 


18 


7 


6 




















51 


1 


1 


37 


4 


4 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 




-0.031 
0.064 
0.122 
0.047 


0.070 
0.047 
0.053 
0.074 


0.658 
0.175 
0.022 
0.528 


-0.110 
0.243 
0.451 
0.195 


0.249 
0. ISO 
0.198 
0.310 


35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.041 
0.093 


0.038 
0.044 


0.288 
0.034 


0.150 
0.357 


0.141 
0.169 


35-64 
65-94 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.038 
0.105 


0.038 
0.044 


0.312 
0.016 


0.142 
0.401 


0.140 
0.167 


35-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.009 
0.100 


0.038 
0.044 


• 0.S11 
0.022 


0.034 
0.384 


0.142 
0.168 



SEX: FEMALE 

EVENT: SUDDEN DEATH FROM CORONARY HEART DISEASE 

RISK FACTOR: HEMATOCRIT 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



35-44 AT EXAM 



RISK 
FACTOR 


PERSON 
EXAMS 


f OF 
EVENTS 


ANNUAL 
RATE 


PERSON 
EXAMS 


21-39 
40-41 
42-43 
44-45 
46-65 


1697 
967 

1043 
856 
487 






1843 
1741 
1955 
2194 
1681 


UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 


566 
5616 






545 
9959 


RISK 
FACTOR 


75- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


84 AT EXAM 

• OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


85- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


21-39 
40-41 
42-43 
44-45 
46-65 


29? 
373 
353 

486 
436 


I 
3 
1 
2 
i 


2 
4 
1 
2 
9 


24 
31 
19 
26 
23 


UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 


6 
1951 



15 



4 



123 



4 5-54 AT EXAM 

> OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 



85-94 AT EXAM 

• OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 



55-64 AT EXAM 
PERSON » OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1553 
2061 
2260 
2847 
2521 

271 
1 1513 



1 
4 
5 


13 



65-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



646 
1069 
1256 
1609 
1626 

42 
6248 



35-64 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



3 

1 
I 

i 
7 

a 

IS 







1 






1 


2 
6 
4 

1 

. 14 



1 

1 
2 
1 

12 

1 



65-94 COMBINED 
t OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



3 
3 
4 
8 

12 

1 
31- 



2 
1 
1 
2 
3 

10 

2 



LOOISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 




0.113 
0.108 
0.112 
0.142 


0.128 
0.080 
0.081 
0.062 


0.380 
0.177 
0.163 
0.021 


0.401 
0.374 
0.393 
0.553 


0.457 
0.277 
0.281 
0.240 


35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.137 
0.103 


0.066 
0.051 


0.039 
0.044 


0.493 
0.371 


0.239 
0.184 


35-64 
65-94 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.101 
O.IIO 


0.068 
0.049 


0.140 
0.024 


0.362 
0.397 


0.245 
0.175 


35-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.071 
0.106 


0.070 
0.049 


0.307 
0.031 


0.257 
0.382 


0.251 
0.177 



\ 



- 183 - 



TABLE 9-6 DATE=05JAN86 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
BY AGE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAMi FRAMINGMAM STUDY iO-YEAR FOLLOWUP 

SEX; MALE 

EVENT: SUDDEN DEATH FROM CORONARY HEART DISEASE 

RISK FACTOR: BLOOD GLUCOSE (MC-'DL) 

PERSONS AT RISK! PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 
FACTOR 

29-69 

70-89 

90-1 09 

1 10-129 

130-524 

UNKNOHN 
TOTAL 



35-44 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

992 

2501 

6 26 

105 

48 

200 
4472 



45-54 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



55-64 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



65-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1490 


5 


2 


1087 


4 


2 


421 


2 


2 


4I7Z 


7 


1 


4056 


19 


2 


1761 


10 


3 


1348 


2 


1 


1866 


6 


2 


1046 


3 


4 


305 








537 


3 


3 


335 


2 


3 


193 


2 


5 


408 








334 


4 


6 


21 i 








95 








16 








772« 


16 


1 


8049 


32 


2 


3913 


26 


3 



RISK 
FACTOR 

29-69 

70-89 

90-109 

110-129 

130-524 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



75-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON ♦ OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



62 








377 


6 


8 


328 


4 


6 


125 


1 


4 


125 














_ 


017 


11 


5 



8 5-94 AT EXAM 

PERSON i OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

1 

II 
14 




39 



35-64 COMBINED 
• OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



9 

28 

9 

5 

Z 


51 



65-94 COMBINED 
t OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



2 

16 

12 

3 

4 


37 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 




0.007 
-0.010 

0.006 
-0.012 


0.006 
0.009 
0.003 
0.014 


0.174 
0.285 
0.066 
0.388 


0.177 
-0.280 

0.216 
-0.381 


0.1 30 
0.261 
0.118 
0.442 


85-94 














35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.002 
0.004 


0.005 
0.004 


0.720 
0.225 


0.045 
0.147 


0.125 
0.122 


35-64 
65-94 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIA.TE 


-0.002 
0.004 


0.006 
0.004 


0.768 
0.308 


-0.042 
0.132 


0.143 
0.129 


35-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


-0.001 
0.003 


0.006 
0.0S4 


0.801 
0.434 


-0.035 
0.102 


0.140 
0.131 



SEX: FEMALE 

EVENT: SUDDEN DEATH FROM CORONARY HEART DISEASE 

RISK FACTOR: BLOOD GLUCOSE (MGy-DL) 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FJ«EE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



35-44 AT EXAM 



RISK 
FACTOR 


PERSON 
EXAMS 


t OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


29-69 

70-89 

90-109 

110-129 

130-524 


1066 

3412 

672 

96 

39 




UNKNOHN 
TOTAL 


331 

5616 




RISK 
FACTOR 


75- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


84 AT EXAM 

« OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


29-69 

70-89 

90-109 

110-129 

130-524 


105 
823 
640 
219 
Mi 


1 5 
5 3 

3 2 

4 9 

2 6 


UNKNOUN 
TOTAL 


1 
1951 



15 4 



AGE AT 
EXAM 

35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 

35-64 
65-94 

35-64 
65-94 

35-64 
65-94 



45-54 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



55-64 AT EXAM 
PERSON « OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



65-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON » OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1797 


1 





1369 


5 


2 


521 




1 


5744 


3 





6098 


6 





5102 







16Z5 








2712 


2 





1732 




1 


301 








730 








501 




1 


159 


1 


5 


438 








360 




4 


333 








166 








32 




16 


9959 


5 





11513 


13 


1 


6248 


14 


1 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



35-64 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE .ADJUSTED 



COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 



0.01 5 

-0.048 

0.008 

0.007 



UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 



BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 



MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 



003 
.008 



-0.012 
0.007 



-0.01 1 
0.006 



3 

44 
51 
13 
12 


6 
9 
2 


1 



23 



18 


LOGISTIC 


REGRESSIONS 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


0.008 
0.022 
0.006 
0.004 


0.063 
0.030 
0. 169 
0.075 


0.012 
0.003 


0,812 
0.012 


1).014 
0. 003 


0.420 
0.046 


0.014 
0.004 


0.425 
0.080 



65-94 COMBINED 
e OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 



0.291 

-1 .218 

0.224 

0.247 



-0. 
0. 



064 

245 



252 
205 



2 
9 
9 
5 
5 

L 
31 



2 

1 
2 
3 

5 

15 

2 



STD 
SE 



0.156 
0.562 
0.162 
0.139 



0.270 
0.098 



-0.246 
0.188 



313 
103 



308 
107 



2 
1 
2 
3 

5 

12 
2 



- 184 - 



RISK 
FACTOR 



NO 
YES 



UNKNOHN 
TOTAL 



TABLE 9-7 DATE=05JANa6 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
BY AGE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAMi FRAMINGHAM STUDY 30-YEAR FOLLOWUP 

SEX: MALE 

EVENT' SUDDEN DEATH FROM CORONARY HEART DISEASE 

RISK FACTOR: DIABETES MELLITUS 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



i5-<i<< AT EXAM 
PERSON » OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

<ia 



•0 



'iS-Si AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



55-6'4 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



65-7'* AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



7486 
2i& 


1<< 
2 


1 

<< 


7519 
500 


32 




2 



JSOO 
409 


22 
4 


3 

5 



772'i 


Q 
16 


1 



8049 



J2 


2 



J91J 



26 


3 



( 



RISK 
FACTOR 



NO 
YES 



7 5-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



900 
117 



11 




85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

34 

5 



35-64 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



49 

Z 



65-94 COMBINED 
♦ OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



33 

4 



UNKNOHN 
TOTAL 




1017 




11 




39 




51 




37 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


35-44 
45-54 

55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 




1.509 
0.447 


0.759 
0.546 


0.047 
0.413 


0.261 
0.137 


0.131 
0.167 


35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.010 
0.013 


0.722 
0.531 


0.988 
0.980 


0.002 

0.004 


0.140 
0.164 


35-64 
65-94 


8IVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


-0.307 
-0.016 


0.725 
0.532 


0.672 
0.976 


-0.059 
-0.005 


0. 140 
0.164 


35-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


-0.437 
-0.064 


0.734 
0.537 


0.552 
0.905 


-0.084 
-0.020 


0.142 
0.166 



SEX: FEMALE 

EVENT: SUDDEN DEATH FROM CORONARY HEART DISEASE 

RISK FACTOR: DIABETES MELLITUS 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



35-44 AT EXAM 



RISK 

FACTOR 


PERSON 
EXAMS 


t OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


NO 
YES 


SS7J 
43 




UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



5616 




RISK 
FACTOR 


7 5- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


84 AT EXAM 

t OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


NO 
YES 


17S8 
213 


11 3 
4 9 


UNKNOMN 
TOTAL 



1951 



IS 4 



45-54 AT EXAM 
PERSON < OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



9760 
199 




9959 



PERSON 
EXAMS 



106 
17 




123 



8 5-94 AT EXAM 



t OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 



55-64 AT EXAM 
PERSON ♦ OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



10985 
528 




11513 



12 
1 




13 



t OF 
EVENTS 



16 

2 



35-64 COMBINED 



6 5-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 




18 



CRUDE 



AGE- 
ADJUSTED 



5780 
468 




6248 



12 
2 





14 



65-94 COMBINED 
• OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



25 
6 



a 

31 






LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 


" 


COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 




2.511 
0.551 
0.724 
1.100 


1.120 
1.042 
0.765 
0.588 


0.025 
0.597 
0.344 
0.062 


0.351 
0.115 
0.191 
0.343 


0.157 
0.218 
0.201 
0.184 


35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


1 .454 
0.969 


0.751 
0.456 


0.053 
0.034 


0.242 
0.269 


0.125 
0.127 


35-64 
65-94 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


1 .028 
0.825 


0.755 
0.459 


0.173 
0.072 


0. 171 
0.229 


0.125 
0.127 


35-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.928 
0.697 


0.765 
0.478 


0.225 
0.145 


0.154 
0.193 


0.127 
0.132 



I. 



185 



TABLE 7-6 DATE=27N0V85 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
BY AGE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAM' FRAMINGHAM STUDY 30-YEAR FOLLOWUP 

SEX- MALE 

EVENT: ANGINA PECTORIS 

RISK FACTOR: BLOOD GLUCOSE (MG/DL) 

PERSONS AT RISK-. PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 
FACTOR 

29-69 

70-S9 

90-109 

110-129 

130-52:4 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



35-«:i AT EXAM 45-54 AT EXAM 55-64 AT EXAM 

PERSON » OF ANNUAL PERSON I OF ANNUAL PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



992 


4 


2 


2501 


1 1 


2 


626 


J 


2 


105 


1 


5 


48 


■ 





200 


2 


5 


4472 


21 


2 



1490 

4172 

1348 

305 

193 

216 
7724 



15 

35 

19 

3 

4 

4 
80 



1087 

4056 

1866 

537 

408 

95 
8049 



22 

78 

30 

8 

8 

5 
149 



10 

10 

8 

7 

10 

16 
9 



65-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



421 


4 


5 


1761 


23 


7 


1046 


21 


1 


335 


6 


9 


334 


8 


12 


16 








3913 


62 


8 



RISK 
FACTOR 

29-69 

70-89 

90-109 

1 10-129 

130-524 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



75-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON f OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATfe 



62 

377 
328 
125 
125 


1017 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON « OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



11 

14 

4 

9 



39 



35-64 COMBINED 
t OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



65-94 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



41 


6 


6 


4 


4 


4 


124 


6 


6 


28 


7 


6 


SZ 


7 


6 


24 


9 


9 


1Z 


i 


6 


6 


6 


7 


12 


9 


8 


11 


12 


12 


9 


9 


11 


a 


a 





250 


6 


6 


73 


7 


7 



LOOISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STO 
SE 


35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 




0.002 
0.004 
-0.002 
0.005 
0.012 


0.012 
0.004 
0.003 
0.003 
0.006 


3.844 
0.336 
0.557 
0.095 
0,050 


0.039 

0.086 

-0.054 

0.153 

. 0.385 


0.200 
0.089 
0.092 
0.092 
. 0.196 


35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.003- 
0.006 _ 


0.002 
0.002 


0.262 
0.018 


0,062 
0.189 


0.055 
0.030 


35-64 
65-94 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


-0.000 
0.006 


O.SOS 
0.902 


0.86S 
0.016 


-a. an 

0.192 


0.062 
0.079 


35-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


-0.001 
0.006 


0.003 
0.002 


0.819 
0.020 


-0.014 
0.187 


0.061 
0.081 



SEX: FEMALE 

EVENT; ANGINA PECTORIS 

RISK FACTOR: BLOOD GLUCOSE CMG/Dl) 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 
FACTOR 

29-69 

70-89 

90-109 

110-129 

130-524 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



35-44 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1066 

3412 

672 

96 

59 

331 
5616 



45-54 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1797 

5744 

1625 

301 

159 

333 
9959 



4 
27 
4 
2 
4 

6 
47 



1 
2 

1 

3 

13 

9 
2 



SS-S* AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1369 
6098 

2712 
730 
438 

166 
1151 J 



21 
58 
30 
12 
13 

6 
140 



8 
5 

6 

8 

15 

IS 
6 



65-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON ♦ OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



521 

5102 

1732 

501 

360 

32 

6243 



9 
44 

24 
8 
6 


91 



RISK 
FACTOR 

29-69 

70-89 

90-109 

110-129 

130-524 

UNKNOHH 
TOTAL 



AGE AT 
EXAM 

S5-44 
45-J4 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 

35-64 
65-94 

35-64 
65-94 

35-64 
65-94 



75-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATt 



105 


2 


10 


823 


9 




640 


11 




219 


4 




163 


5 


IS 


1 







951 


31 





85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 



-0.015 
0.015 



006 
001 



0.005 



UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 



BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 



MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 



Oil ■ 
002 



008 
002 



0.006 
0.001 



i 

44 
51 
13 

12 


27 
87 

ss 

14 
17 



123 


12 
192 


LOOISTIC 


REORESSIOHS 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


0.0S9 
O.OOJ 

0.002 
0.004 
0.004 


0.692 

0.001 
0.005 
0.825 
0.160 


0.002 
0.003 


0.001 
0.520 


0.002 
0.003 


0.001 
0.473 


0.002 
0.003 


0.001 
0.651 



35-64 COMBINED 
» OF ACE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



4 
3 
3 
5 

11 



65-94 COMBINED 
« OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



11 
4 



STANDARDIZES 
COEFFICIENT 

-0.234 

0.294 

0.160 
-0.024 

8.170 



0.230 

0.052 



0.176 

o.oss 



0.137 
0.037 



.11 
53 
36 

12 

11 


123 



9 
7 
7 
■8 
10 


7 



STB 
SE 



590 
058 
057 
111 
121 



0.036 
0.081 



0.039 
0.031 



0.041 
0.082 



9 
7 
7 
8 
10 


7 



- 186 - 



TABLi. 9-8 0ATE = 05JAN«6 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
BY AGE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAM: FRAMINGHAM STUDY 30-YEAR FOLLOWUP 

SEX: MALE 

EVENT: SUDDEN DEATH FROM CORONARY HEART DISEASE 

RISK FACTOR: GLUCOSE IN URINE, DEFINITE OR TRACE 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 
FACTOR 



NO 
YES 



UNKNOHN 
TOTAL 



JS-tl AT EXAM IS-S* AT EXAM 

PERSON » OF ANNUAL PERSON » OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

<<SSO 
60 



32 



55-6« AT EXAM 65-7<i AT EXAM 

PERSON • OF ANNUAL PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE . EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



7535 
16S 


14 
2 


1 
6 


7815 
210 


32 



2 



3767 
140 


22 
4 


3 
14 


21 
772:4 







1 


24 
8049 



32 



2 


6 
3913 



26 



3 



RISK 

FACTOR 



NO 
YES 



75-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON » OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



986 
28 



11 




85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON « OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

38 
1 



35-64 COMBINED 
« OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



49 

2 



65-94 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



33 

4 



3 
12 



UNKNOHN 
TOTAL 



5 
1017 




39 




51 




37 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 

COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


35-44 
45-54 
55-44 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 




1 .868 
1 .611 


0.760 
0.551 


0.014 
0.003 


0.273 
0.299 


0.111 
0.102 


35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.611 
1.251 


0.723 
0.535 


0.398 
0.019 


0.089 
0.227 


0.105 
0.097 


35-64 
65-94 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.470 
1.297 


0.724 
0.537 


0.516 
0.016 


0.069 
0.235 


0.106 
0.097 


35-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.387 
1 .170 


0.729 
0.546 


0.595 
0.032 


0.056 
0.212 


0.106 
0.099 



SEX: FEMALE 

EVENT: SUDDEN DEATH FROM CORONARY HEART DISEASE 

RISK FACTOR: GLUCOSE IN URINE, DEFINITE OR TRACE 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 
FACTOR 


55- 

PERSON 
EXAMS 


44 AT EXAM 

t OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


45- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


54 AT EXAM 

1 OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


55- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


■64 AT EXAM 

1 OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


65-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON f OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS. RATE 


NO 
YES 


5537 
41 






9841 
94 


4 
•1 


■ 
5 


11346 
144 


13 




1 



6131 
107 


13 1 
1 5 


UNKNOHN 
TOTAL 


38 
5616 






24 
9959 




5 






23 

11513 



13 




1 


10 
6248 


■ 
14 1 


RISK 
FACTOR 


75- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


84 AT EXAM 

t OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


85- 

PERSON 
EXAMS 


94 AT EXAM 

• OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


35- 

t OF 
EVENTS 


64 COMBINED 65- 
AGE- 1 OF 
CRUDE ADJUSTED EVENTS 


94 COMBINED 

AGE- 
CRUDE ADJU 


NO 
YES 


1919 
23 


14 

1 


4 
22 


120 

3 






17 

1 




2 




z 


29 
2 


2 
8 


UNKNOHN 
TOTAL 


9 
1951 



15 




4 



123 







IS 












31 




2 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 

35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 

35-64 
65-94 

35-64 
65-94 

35-64 
65-94 



COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 



1 .491 
1 .822 



UNIVARIATE 

UNIVARIATE 



BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 



MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 



1 .732 
1 .455 



1 .459 
1 .276 



SE 

COEFFICIENT 



P-VALUE 



1 .042 
1 .057 


0.153 
0.085 


1 .031 
0.736 


0.093 
0.048 


1 .032 
0.740 


0.125 
0.041 


1 .044 
0.766 


0.162 
0.096 



STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 



0. 194 
0. 197 



175 
183 



160 
190 



148 
160 



STD 
SE 



0.135 
0.114 



104 
092 



104 
093 



106 
096 



187 



RISK 

FACTOR 



NO 
YES 



UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



TABLE 9-9 DATE=01MAR86 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
BY AGE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAM" FRAMINGHAM STUDY JO-YEAR FOLLOWUP 

SEXi MALE 

EVENTi SUDDEN DEATH FROM CORONARY HEART DISEASE 

RISK FACTORi GLUCOSE INTOLERANCE 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



JS-'i'i AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

"tSJS 
137, 







<i5-5« AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



7221 
503 



1<i 
2 




16 



55-44 AT EXAM 
PERSON » OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



71<i5 
90ii 




S0<<9 



32 






32 



65-7« AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



3228 
685 




3913 



20 
6 




26 



c 



1 



RISK 
FACTOR 



NO 
YES 



UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



AGE AT 

EXAM 

35-<i<i 

55-61 
4S-7<i 
75-8'4 
85-9'i 

35-6 <i 
65-9<» 

35-64 
«5-9<i 

35-64 
65-94 



75-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON » OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



802 
215 




1017 



10 
1 




11 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



35-64 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 



0.720 



UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 



8IVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 



MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 



0.349 
-0.994 



-0.704 
0.038 



-0.976 
-0.020 



-1 .045 
-0.091 



27 
12 


49 

Z 



39 



51 


LOGISTIC 


REGRESSIONS 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 



0.342 



0.467 
I .052 


0.455 
0.345 


0.722 
0.421 


0.328 
0,929 


0.724 
0.422 


0.178 
0.942 


0.727 
0.425 


0.151 
0.830 



45-94 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 



30 
7 




37 



STD 
SE 



0.133 
'0.404 


0. 178 
0.430 


•0.187 
0.015 


0. 192 
0.163 


•0.259 
0.008 


0.192 
0.164 


0.277 
0.035 


0.193 
0.144 



SEX: FEMALE 

EVENT: SUDDEN DEATH FROM CORONARY HEART DISEASE 

RISK FACTOR' GLUCOSE INTOLERANCE 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



35-44 AT EXAM 
RISK PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
FACTOR EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



45-54 AT EXAM 55-44 AT EXAM 

PERSON I OF ANNUAL PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



4 5-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON S OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



NO 
YES 



UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



RISK 
FACTOR 



NO 
YES 



UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



5522 
94 




5616 



75-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1581 
370 




1951 



II 

4 




15 



9588 
J7I 




9959 



I 0503 
1010 




11SI3 



12 
1 




13 



85-94 AT EXAM 35-44 COMBINED 

PERSON 8 OF ANNUAL • OF AGE- 

EXAMS EVENTS RATE EVENTS CRUDE" ADJU: 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFK 
OF RISK 1 


35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-64 
85-94 




1.868 

-0.143 

0.935 

0.445 


35-64 
45-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.776 
0.687 


35-44 
65-94 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.341 
0.554 


55-64 
45-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.291 
0.482 



100 
2J 


14 

2 



123 



1< 


LOGISTIC 


REGRESSIONS 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


1.119 
1 .041 
0.593 
0.587 


0.095 
0.891 

0.115 
0.449 


0.750 
0.412 


0.301 
0.095 


0.755 
0.414 


0.651 
0.180 


0.758 
0.426 


0.701 
0.258 





5398 
850 


10 
4 


1 
2 




• 

4248 



14 


1 


ISTEI 


45- 
• OF 
3 EVENTS 


■94 COMBINED 

AGE- 
■ CRUDE ADJUSTED 




1 


23 
8 


2 
3 


2 

3 






31 


2 


2 



STANDARDIZES 
COEFFICIENT 



0.354 

-0.041 

0.321 

0.t74 



0.176 
0.Z45 



0.077 
0.1 9« 



0.0«« 
0.172 



STD 
SE 



0.212 
0.295 

0.203 
0.230 



170 
147 



171 
148 



172 
152 



i 



- li 



TABLE 9-10 DATE=Q5JAN86 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
BY AGE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAM: FRAMINGHAM STUDY JO-YEAR FOLLOWUP 

SEX: MALE 

EVENT: SUDDEN DEATH FROM CORONARY HEART DISEASE 

RISK FACTOR: METROPOLITAN RELATIVE WEIGHT (PERCENT) 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 

FACTOR 

S<<-10<i 
105-n'i 

ns-i2<i 

125-1 J^i 
1J5-272 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



35-<*4 AT EXAM 
PERSON » OF ANNUAL 

EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

725 
965 
1122' 
915 
7<i7 


".472 



^iS-S"* AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



55-61 AT EXAM 
PERSON » OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



65-71 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 

EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1 1 51 


2 




1155 


6 


5 


636 


3 


2 


1510 


1 




1655 


1 


1 


851 


2 


1 


2037 


1 




2175 


6 


1 


1 069 


9 


1 


1615 


2 




1671 


5 


1 


766 


7 


5 


1370 


1 




1589 


11 


1 


511 


5 


5 


1 








1 














. 


7721 


16 


1 


8019 


32 


2 


3913 


26 


3 



RISK 
FACTOR 

51-101 
105-1 11 
1 15-121 
125-131 
135-272 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



AGE AT 
EXAM 

35-11 
15-51 
55-61 
65-71 
75-81 
85-91 

35-61 
65-91 

35-61 
65-91 

35-61 
65-91 



75-81 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



85-91 AT EXAM 
PERSON < OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



35-61 COMBINED 
t OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



65-91 COMBINED 
• OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



221 
252 
296 
155 
90 


1017 



9 

6 

3 



II 



1 
3 

2 

2 



11 



COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 



UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 



BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 



MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 



0.000 

0.013 

0.020 

-0.032 



0.00< 
0.00« 



0.008 
0.009 



0.007 
0.005 



IS 
9 

12 




9 
8 

1 1 
S 

IS 



39 



51 


LOGISTIC 


REGRESSIONS 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


0.015 
0.011 
0.012 
0.021 


0.975 
0.231 
0.085 
0.133 


0.008 
0.010 


0.336 
0.511 


0.008 
0.011 


0.312 
0.375 


0.009 
0.011 


0.139 
0.611 



STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 



0.003 

0.202 

0.316 

-0.175 



0.131 
0.094 



0.130 
0.115 



0.110 
0.077 



7 
5 
II 
7 
7 


37 



STD 
SE 



0.250 
0.169 
0.181 

o..:i« 



O.liZ 



0.1S7 
0.163 



0.112 
0.166 



SEX' FEMALE 

EVENT: SUDDEN DEATH FROM CORONAJJY HEART DISEASE 

RISK FACTOR: METROPOLITAN RELATIVE HEIGHT (PERCENT) 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISX 

FACTOR 

51-101 
105-111 
115-121 
125-151 
155-272 

UNKNOHN 
TOTAL 



35-11 AT EXAIf 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 

EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

1691 
1150 
1053 

566 

360 

3 
5616 



15-51 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



2095 
2331 
2107 
1572 
2051 



55-61 AT EXAM 6 5-71 AT EXAM 

PERSON • OF ANNUAL PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 




9959 



1 





2015 


1 











2109 




I 








2179 




1 


1 





1715 







5 


1 


2837 




1 





« 







_ 


5 





11513 


15 


1 



1216 


1 


2 


1115 


1 





1395 


2 


1 


932 


1 


2 


1510 


3 


1 








. 


6218 


11 


1 



RISK 
FACTOR 

51-1 04 
105-111 
115-121 
125-131 
135-272 

UNKNOHN 
TOTAL 



AGE AT 
EXAM 

35-11 
15-51 
55-61 
65-71 
75-81 
85-91 

35-61 
65-91 

55-61 
65-91 

35-61 
65-91 



7 5-81 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 

EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



517 
37 5 
599 
266 
391 


19S1 



UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 



BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 



85-91 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



3 

2 
1 
1 
2 


15 



COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 



0.021 
-0.004 

-0.006 
0.003 



0.008 
-0.009 



0.001 
-O.OOS 



35-61 COMBINED 
i OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE AOJUSTED- 



MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 



0.006 
-0.006 



11 

28 
21 
16 
17 


2 
J 
5 

2 

6 



123 



18 


LOGISTIC 


REGRESSIONS 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


0.011 
0.013 
0.013 
0.012 


0.128 
0.711 
0.619 
0.831 


0.010 
0.009 


0.597 
0.325 


0.010 
0.009 


0.655 
0.567 


0.011 
0.009 


0.568 
0.525 



65-91 COMBINED 
e OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 



0.151 
-0.096 
-0.130 

0.051 



0.176 
-0.192 



0.098 
-0.111 



0.133 
-0.126 



9 
3 

6 
8 

"i 


51 



STD 
SE 



0.298 
0.293 
0.285 
0.251 



0.208 
0.196 



0.218 
0.193 



0.233 
0.198 



189 - 



RISK 
FACTOR 

i-<iti 
<»5-'i9 
SO-Si* 
55-59 
40-55 

UNKNOHN 
TOTAL 



TABLE 9-II DATE=05JAN86 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
BY AGE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAMi FRAMINCHAM STUDY JO-YEAR FOLLOWUP 

SEX' MALE 

EVENT; SUDDEN DEATH FROM CORONARY HEART DISEASE 

RISK FACTOR-- VITAL CAPACITY - HEIGHT INDEX (ML/INCH) 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



35-^4 AT EXAM •45-5'i AT EXAM 

PERSON I OF ANNUAL PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



269 

411 

747 

1022 

2010 



55-64 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



6 5-7 4 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



13 
4472 



lOiZ 
1125 
1i5S 
17J9 
2135 


1 
2 
6 
2 

5 



1 
2 

I 
1 


2045 
1480 
1835 
1416 
1255 


12 

5 
9 
2 
4 


3 
2 
2 

1 
2 


1752 
749 

712 
442 
246 


1 1 
7 
6 
2 



3 
5 
4 
2 




5 

77Z<i 



16 



1 


18 
8049 



32 



2 


12 
3913 



26 



3 



c 



RISK 
FACTOR 

8-44 
45-49 
50-54 
55-59 
60-85 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



75-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 

EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



649 


8 


6 


172 


1 


3 


97 








65 


2 


15 


26 








8 








1017 


1 1 


5 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON < OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

24 

6 
7 
2 



39 



35-64 COMBINED 
« OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



< 

15 
i 
9 


51 



65-94 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



19 
8 
6 




37 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 




0.008 
-0.018 
-0.013 
-0.001 


0.028 
0.019 
0.021 
0.033 


0.765 
0.340 
0.516 
0.983 


0.075 
-0.165 
-0.126 
-0.007 


0.252 
0.173 
0.195 
0.303 


35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


-0.027 
-0.013 


0.014 
0.017 


0.055 
0.436 


-0.260 
-0.128 


0.135 
0.164 


35-64 
65-94 


flIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


-fl.OOS 
-0.006 


0.015 
0.018 


0.574 
0.745 


-0.082 
-0.055 


. 146 
0.169 


35-44 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.001 
0.002 


0.016 
0.018 


0.931 
0.931 


0.013 
0.015 


0.151 
0.172 



SEXi FEMALE 

EVENT: SUDDEN DEATH FROM CORONARY HEART DISEASE 

RISK FACTOR; VITAL CAPACITY - HEIGHT INDEX (ML/INCH) 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



( 



RISK 
FACTOR 

4-29 
30-34 
35-39 
40-44 
45-92 

UNKNOMN 
TOTAL 



35-44 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 

EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

122 

239 

769 
1427 
2988 

21 ■ ■ 

5616 



45-54 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



5S4 

1217 

2077 2 

2S04 2 

3310 1 



17 
9959 



55-64 AT EXAM 
PERSON e OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1461 
2418 
3048 
27 06 
1859 

21 
11513 



4 1 

3 1 

3 

2 

1 



IS 1 



6 5-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 

EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1747 

1715 

1529 

854 

397 

6" 
6248 



RISK 
FACTOR 

4-29 
30-34 
35-39 
40-44 
45-92 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



AGE AT 
EXAM 

35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 

35-64 
65-94 

35-64 
65-94 

35-64 
65-94 



75-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



930 
569 
314 

111 
25 

2 
19S1 



5 
8 

2 





15 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



35-64 COMBINED 
t OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE- ADJUSTED 



COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 



-0.012 
-0.069 
-0.047 
-0.015 



UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 



BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 



MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 



075 
052 



-0.044 
-0.052 



-0.043 
-0.035 



80 
29 

15 
1 



4 
3 
5 

« 

2 



125 



IS 


LOGISTIC 


REGRESSIONS 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


0.060 
0.034 
0.035 
0.036 


0.841 

0.044 
0.178 
0.685 


0.028 
0.023 


0.006 
0.023 


0.031 
0.025 


0.148 
0.193 


0.032 
0.026 


0.171 
0.195 



65-94 COMBINED 
8 OF . AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE AOJUSTa 



STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 



-O.089 
-0.521 
-0.349 
-0. 104 



.600 
.394 



353 
242 



346 
252 



14 
10 

4.- 

3 




31 



STD 
SE 



.444 
0.258 
0.259 
0.256 



220 
173 



244 
186 



252 
194 



e 



190 - 



TAIIC 9-12 OATE'OSJANA* 

AVERAOE ANNUAl INCIDENCE HATE fO» EVENT PER 1000 'ER50N5 AT «!« AT EXAM 
IT ACE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAH^ FRAMINOMAM STUDY JO-TEAR fOLLOHUP 

SEX' NALE 

EVENT I SUDDEN DEATH FROH CORONARY HEART DISEASE 

RISK FACTOR' HEART RATE (PER MINUTE) _ . 

PMSONS AT RISK' PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 
FACTOR 

J0-*7 
♦ 1-75 

r*-«j 

04-91 
92-220 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



33-AA AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

12>* 
t«92 

722 

379 

i9S 


A472 



•>5- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


5» AT EXAM 

• OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


55-44 AT EXAM 

PERSON 1 OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 


65- 
PER50N 
EXAMS 


74 AT EXAM 

I OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


1949 
2A90 
159* 
1097 
79* 


1 
5 
4 

3 
3 




1 
1 
1 

2 


2309 t 
2490 t 
1574 3 
1044 4 
tl2 11 




11J3 

1159 

624 

4«7 

440 


3 

4 

4 
7 
4 


1 

3 
3 
7 
7 



7724 



U 


1 



t049 32 


2 


9 
3913 



24 


3 



RISK 

FACTOR 

30-47 
4«-7S 

74->3 
»4-91 
92-229 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



7 3-<4 AT EXAM 

PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS MTE 



391 

294 
192 

123 
103 



1917 



2 
3 
3 
2 

1 

9 

11 



S5-9* AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

I 1 
12 
10 

5 

1 


39 



3S-44 COHIINED 
• OF ACE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



7 

IS 

I 

9 
14 


51 



45-94 COMSINcD 
» OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



3 

9 

7 
9 

7 


37 



LOOISTIC REGRESSIONS 



ACE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 

COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


SID 
SE 


35-4* 
43-54 
33-44 
45-74 
73-M 
«5-«« 




9.934 
0.037 
0.934 
9.9Z1 


o.ots 

9.911 
9.912 
0.020 


0.041 
0.001 
0.095 " 
-•.309 


0.451 
0.4S0 
0.441 
0.274 


0.220 
0. 147 
0. 143 
9.271 


35-44 
45-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


9.93« 
«.9S* 


9.904 
9.910 


0.001 
0.005 


9.4(1 
0.409 


9.11* 
9.140 


JS-44 
45-94 


IIVARIATE 
IIVARIATE 


0.0J7 
9.930 


9.909 
9.910 


a. 001 

9.005 


0.470 
9.410 


9.114 
9.140 


35-44 
45-94 


MUITIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


9 . 927 
9 . 929 


9.019 
9.011 


9.905 

, a. 005 


9.347 
0.394 


0.124 
9.142 



SEX' FEMALE 

EVENT: SUDDEN DEATH FROH CORONARY HEART DISEASE ' 

RISK FACTOR' HEART RATE (PER MINUTE) 

PERSONS AT RISK' PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 

FACTOR 


PERSON 
EXAMS 


1 OF ANNUAl 
EVENTS RATE 


30-47 
4«-73 

74-S3 
S4-91 
92-220 


1092 

1(03 

1031 

939 

731 




UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



3414 




RISK 

FACTOR 


75- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


14 AT EXAM 

• OF ANNUAl 
EVENTS RATE 


30-47 
4«-73 

74-13 
14-91 
92-22a 


340 
442 
42t 
330 
"1 


3 4 

4 4 
9 9 
2 3 
4 t 


UNKNOWN 
TOTAl 


9 
1951 


15 4 



ACE AT 
EXAM 

35-44 
45-34 
55-44 

45-74 
75-44 
• 5-94 

35-44 

43-94 

33-44 
43-94 

33-44 
43-94 



43-34 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1197 
3244 
191 1 
1604 
1303 



53-44 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 




9939 



<S-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAl 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 









2303 




3 


2 





346« 




1 





9 


2331 




9 


1 





17S0 




I 


2 


1 


1409 




9 





. 


9 




. 


5 





11313 


13 


t 



63-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1 103 
144« 
13SS 
I0«9 
1939 


424« 



1 

3 

. 3 

1 

4 



14 



35-44 COMIINED 
• OF ACE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 



0.031 
0.013 
0.033 
0.009 



UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 



IIVARIATE 
IIVARIATE 



MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 



9.011 
0.020 



017 
019 



014 
913 



24 
32 

24 
23 
1« 


1 
4 
2 
4 

3 


9 
123 


9 
1« 


LOOISTIC 


REGRESSIONS 


SE 

COEFFICIENT 


P-VAIUE 


0.931 
0.020 
0.015 
0.017 


0.329 
0.505 
0.029 
0.413 


0.017 
9.012 


0.273 
0.994 


0.014 
0.012 


0.294 
0.109 


0.917 
9.012 


0.422 
a.2S5 



45-94 CSHtlNES 
t OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUSE ADJUSTED 



STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 



0.37J 
0.170 
0.431 
0.123 



.229 
.241 



,217 
.230 



173 
174 



3 

7 
3 

4 

12 


31 



STO 
SE 



0.3*7 
0.255 
0. 199 
0.244 



209 

13* 



:o7 

154 



21S 
144 



191 



RISK 
FACTOR 

NONE 

1-10 
It -20 
21-40 
<i1-90 

UNKNOHN 
TOTAL 



TABLE 9-13 DATE=08JAN86 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
8Y AGE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAM: FRAMINGHAM STUDY 30-YEAR FOLLOHUP 

SEX' MALE 

EVENT: SUDDEN DEATH FROM CORONARY HEART DISEASE 

RISK FACTOR: CIGARETTES SMOKED (NUMBER PER DAY) 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



iS-<,'i AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

13SJ 

:<33 
I'tSS 

98-7 

15S 

2i 
4<i72 



^iS-S* AT EXAM 55-6". AT EXAM 65-7<4 AT EXAM 

PERSON I OF ANNUAL PERSON t OF ANNUAL PERSON » OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



3068 


2 





:4295 


11 


1 


261 1 


15 


3 


71« 


3 


2 


769 


:< 


3 


37« 


3 


ti 


Z051 


5 


1 


1632 


9 


3 


526 


2 


2 


IfrOZ 


<^ 


1 


1119 


6 


3 


369 


5 


7 


252 


2 


4 


162 


2 


6 


27 


1 


19 


S5 








22 








6 


Q 





77 2« 


16 


1 


8049 


32 


2 


3913 


26 


3 



( 



3 



RISK 
FACTOR 

NONE 

1-10 
1 1-20 
21 -*0 
'il-90 

UNKNOHN 
TOTAL 



75-81 AT EXAM 
PERSON « OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



797 
92 
77 
46 

5 


1017 



10 
1 





11 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

27 
6 
5 

1 



39 



35-64 COMBINED 
t OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



13 

8 

14 

12 

4 


51 



65-94 COMBINED 
t OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



25 
4 
2 
5 
1 


37 



4 
4 
2 
6 
16 


4 



5 

15 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


35-44 

45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 




0.027 
0.021 
0.018 


0.014 
0.01 1 
0.014 


0.060 
0.049 
0.203 


0.409 
0.294 
0.212 


0.217 
0.149 
0.166 


J5-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.019 
0.005 


0.009 
0.014 


0.031 
0.697 


0.271 
0.0«« 


0.126 
0.156 


3S-64 
45-94 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.025 
0.010 


0.008 
0.014 


0.003 

0.486 


0.3«S 
0.109 


0.122 

0.156 


S5-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.025 
0.014 


0.008 
0.014 


0.003 
0.319 


O.S«4 
0.157 


0.123 
0.1 5S 



SEX: FEMALE 

EVENT: SUDDEN DEATH FROM CORONARY HEART DISEASE 

RISK FACTOR: CIGARETTES SMOKED (NUMBER PER DAY) 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 
FACTOR 

NONE 

1-10 
11-20 
21-40 
41-90 

UNKNOMN 
TOTAL 



35-44 AT EXAM 
PERSON 8 OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

2582 

1314 

1371 

298 

22 

29 
56 U 



45- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


54 AT EXAM 

t OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


55- 

PERSON 
EXAMS 


64 AT EXAM 

• OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


65- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


74 AT EXAM 

• OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


5528 

1724 

2009 

422 

37 








1 

14 


7595 

1566 

1696 

602 

16 


8 
3 
2 






1 

1 
1 




4863 

626 

568 

172 




10 
1 

2 




1 
1 
2 



37 
9959 




5 






38 
11513 



13 




1 


19 
6248 


1 
14 


26 

1 



RISK 
FACTOR 

NOME 

1-10 
11-20 
21-40 
41-90 

UNKNOHN 
TOTAL 



7 5-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1710 

137 

84 

16 



4 
1951 



13 

1 
1 




15 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON ( OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



35-64 COMBINED 
t OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



AGE AT 




COEFFI 


EXAM 




OF RISK 


35-44 






45-54 




0.Q77 


55-64 




-0.009 


65-74 




0.010 


75-84 




-0.004 


85-94 






35-64 


UNIVARIATE 


0.022 


65-94 


UNIVARIATE 


-0.009 


35-64 


8IVARIATE 


0.031 


65-94 


BIVARIATE 


0.006 


35-64 


MULTIVARIATE 


0.031 


65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 


0.011 



117 
4 
2 




9 
4 
3 

1 
1 



123 



18 


LOGISTIC 


REGRESSIONS 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


0.028 
0.032 
0.033 
0.053 


0.007 
0,777 
0.764 
0.945 


020 
0.028 


0,273 
0.7 56 


0.019 
0.028 


0.114 
0.825 


0.019 
0.028 


0.107 
0.698 



65-94 COMBINED . 
i OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 



0.789 
-0.085 

0.076 
-0.019 



0.220 
-0.062 



306 
044 



311 
077 



25 
2 
3 




1 

31 



22 
2 



STD 
SE 



0.292 
0.300 
0.252 
0.269 



,201 
200 



193 
199 



193 
199 



20 
-2 



c 



192 



TABLE 9-14 DATE=05JAN84 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
BY AGE AND LEVEL OF RISIC FACTOR AT EXAM' FRAMINGHAM STUDY JO-YEAR FOLLOWUP 

SEX: MALE 

EVENT: SUDDEN DEATH FROM CORONARY HEART DISEASE 

RISK FACTOR: ALBUMIN IN URINE, DEFINITE 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 
FACTOR 

i NO 
I YES 



UNKNOHN 
TOTAL 



55-44 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

4366 
70 



36 
4472 



45-54 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



55-64 AT EXAM 
PERSON » OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



65-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



7599 
99 


15 
1 


1 

5 


7838 
184 


31 

1 


2 

J 


3792 
115 


22 
4 


3 

17 


26 
7724 



16 



1 


27 
8049 



32 



2 


6 
3913 



26 




J 



RISK 
FACTOR 



NO 
YES 



UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



AGE AT 
EXAM 

35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 

35-64 
65-94 

35-64 
65-94 

35-64 
65-94 



75-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



989 
25 



3 
1017 



11 





11 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

32 

7 




39 



35-64 COMBINED 
« OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 



BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 



MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 



49 
2 




51 



COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


1 .641 
0.319 
1 .821 


I .038 
1 .019 
0.552 


0.832 
1 .399 


0.723 
0.536 


0.674 
1.3S3 


0.725 
0.539 


0.186 
0.983 


0.743 
0.5S9 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 

P-VALUE 



0.114 
0.754 
0.001 



0.250 
0.009 



0.352 

0.012 



0.803 
0.079 



65-94 COMBINED 
» OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 



0.185 
0.048 
0.308 



0. 109 
0.237 



0.088 
0.229 



0.024 
0.167 



33 
4 




37 



3 
14 



STD 
SE 



0.117 

0.153 
0.09J 



095 
091 



095 
09t 



097 
095 



3 

14 



SEX! FEMALE 

EVENT: SUDDEN DEATH FROM CORONARY HEART DISEASE 

RISK FACTOR: ALBUMIN IN URINE, DEFINITE 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 
FACTOR 


35- 

PERSON 
EXAMS 


44 AT EXAM 

1 OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


45- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


54 AT EXAM 

1 OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


55- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


64 


AT EXAM 
1 OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


65-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 


NO 
YES 


5353 
225 






9656 
278 


5 







11265 
225 




12 

1 


1 
2 


6118 
120 


13 
1 


1 
4 


UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 


3S 
5616 






25 
9959 




5 






25 
11513 





13 



1 


10 
6248 



14 



1 


RISK 
FACTOR 


75- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


84 AT EXAH 

t OF ANNUAL 

EVENT5 RATE 


85- 

PERSON 
EXAMS 


94 AT EXAM 

I OF ANNUAL 

EVENTS RATE 


35- 
• OF 
EVENTS 


64 


COMBINED 

AGE- 
CRUDE ADJUSTED 


65- 
S OF 
EVENTS 


94. COMBINED 

AGE- 
CRUDE ADJUSTED 


NO 
YES 


1904 
3S 


15 



4 



120 
5 






17 
1 






1 




1 


30 

1 


2 
- 3 


2 
3 


UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 


9 
I9S1 



15 




4 



123 







18 












3^ 



2 



2 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 




COEFFICIENT 


SE 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 


STD 


EXAM 




OF RISK FACTOR 


COEFFICIENT 




COEFFICIENT 


SE 


35-44 














45-54 




.. 


_ 


. _ 


_ 


_ 


55-64 




1 .432 


1 .043 


0.170 


0.198 


0.145 


65-74 


' 


1.373 


1.042 


0.188 


0.189 


0.1«S 


75-84 




- 


- 


- 


- 


- 


85-94 














35-64 


UNIVARIATE 


0.753 


1 .030 


0.464 


0.122 


0.167 


65-94 


UNIVARIATE 


0.525 


1.020 


0.607 


0.O72 


0.141 


35-64 


BIVARIATE 


1.017 


1 .032 


0.324 


0.165 


0.167 


65-94 


BIVARIATE 


0.489 


1 .022 


0.632 


0.067 


0.141 


35-64 


MULTIVARIATE 


1 .054 


1.057 


0.319 


0.171 


0.171 


65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 


0.170 


1 .042 


0.870 


0.023 


0.1 4<i 



193 - 



TABLE 9-15 DATE=05JAN86 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
BY AGE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAM; FRAMINGMAM STUDY 50-YEAR FOLLOWUP 

SEX: HALE 

EVENT: SUDDEN DEATH FROM CORONARY HEART DISEASE 

RISK FACTOR: HEART ENLARGEMENT BY X-RAY 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 
FACTOR 


55- 

PERSON 
EXAMS 


■•;« AT EXAM 

I OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


«5- 

PERSON 
EXAMS 


■S"* AT EXAM 

• OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


55- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


64 AT EXAM 

• OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


65-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON i OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 


NO 

MUD 

DEFINITE 


'i065 
185 
219 






6385 
650 
687 


12 1 
2 2 
2 1 


5967 

962 

1119 


20 

5 
9 


2 

2 
4 


2584 
578 
751 


12 2 

4 3 

1 7 


UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 


5 






1 
772', 



16 1 


1 
80'<9 



52 



2 



5915 



26 3 


RISK 
FACTOR 


75- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


8"i AT EXAM 

t OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


85- 
PERSQN 
EXAMS 


94 AT EXAM 

t OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


55- 
1 OF 

EVENTS 


64 COMBINED 

AGE- 
CRUDE ADJUSTED 


65- 
» OF 
EVENTS 


94 COMBINED 

AGE- 
CRUDE ADJU 


NO 

MILD 

DEFINITE 


5S9 

178 
2S0 


3 

<< 


5 
3 
8 


29 
5 
5 




35 
S 

11 


t 

1 
3 


1 

1 

. 2 


16 

7 

14 


2 

5 
7 


UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



1017 



1 1 


5 



39 






51 


a 

1 




1 



37 


4 



( 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 

EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 




0.258 
0.415 
0.529 
0.434 


0.551 
0.207 
0.217 
0.557 


0.462 
0.046 
0.015 
0.198 


0.157 
0.297 
0.421 
0.567 


0.214 
0. 149 
0.173 
0.285 


35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.454 
0.51S 


0.172 
0.182 


0.008 
0.004 


0.289 
0.418 


0.110 
0.147 


55-64 
65-94 


EIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.529 
0.490 


0.176 
0.U5 


0.061 
0.007 


0.210 
0.595 


0.112 
0.148 


55-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.267 
0.527 


0.188 
0.197 


0.157 
0.097 


0.170 
0.264 


0.120 
0.1 59 



SEX: FEMALE 

EVENT" SUDDEN DEATH FROM CORONARY HEART DISEASE 

RISK FACTOR: HEART ENLARGEMENT BY X-RAY 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 
FACTOR 


55- 

PERSON 
EXAMS 


44 AT EXAM 

1 OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


45- 

PERSON 
EXAMS 


54 AT EXAM 

1 OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


55- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


64 AT EXAM 

t OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


65-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON « OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 


NO 

MILD 
DEFINITE 


SI64 
199 
245 






8017 
945 
995 


5 
I 
1 




1 
1 


7522 

1769 
2218 


5 
5 
5 



1 
1 


3191 
1150 
1907 


4 1 
4 2 
6 2 


UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 


8 
5616 






6 
9959 




5 






4 
11513 



13 




1 



6248- 



14 1 


RISK 
FACTOR 


75- 
PERSOH 
EXAMS 


84 AT EXAM 

• OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


85- 

PERSON 
EXAMS 


94 AT EXAM 

I OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


55- 
1 OF 
EVENTS 


64 COMBINED 

AGE- 
CRUDE AOJUSTEI 


65- 
1 OF 
EVENTS 


94 COMBINED 

AGE- 
CRUDE ADJU 


NO 

MILD 

DEFINITE 


702 
57 5 
876 




2 

15 




5 
7 


52 

30 
61 






S 

< 


- 
1 

1 


1 - 
1 


5 

6 

20 


1 
2 
4 


UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



1951 



15 


4 



125 







18 










0" 
51 


2 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


55-44 
4 5-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 




. 548 
0.611 
0.436 
1 .62Q 


0.551 
0.506 
0.500 
0.622 


0.302 
0.046 
0.147 
0.009 


0.350 
0.487 
0.383 
1 .450 


0.559 
0.244 
0.264 
0.557 


55-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.765 
0.820 


0.257 
0.251 


0.003 
0.001 


0.534 
0.752 


0.179 
0.206 


35-64 
65-94 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.527 
0.722 


0.266 
0.255 


0.048 
0.002 


0.567 

0.644 


0.185 
0.209 


55-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.612 
0.640 


0.276 
0.243 


0.027 
0.008 


0.427 
0.572 


0.193 
0.217 



c. 



194 - 



TABLE 9-16 DATE=05JAN86 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
BY AGE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAM' FRAMINGHAM STUDY 30-YEAR FOLLOWUP 

SEX: MALE 

EVENT: SUDDEN DEATH FROM CORONARY HEART DISEASE 

RISK FACTOR: LEFT VENTRICULAR HYPERTROPHY BY ELECTROCARDIOGRAM 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



35-1'. AT EXAM 



RISK 

FACTOR 


PERSON 
E.XAMS 


1 OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


NO 

MILD 

DEFINITE 


4366 
78 
■23 




UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



4<i72 




RISK 
FACTOR 


75- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


S". AT EXAM 

t OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


NO 

MILD 

DEFINITE 


949 
37 
31 


10 5 
a 
1 \6 


UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



1017 


a 

11 5 



■iS-S'i AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



SS-i"* AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



7'<97 

132 

95 


772<i 



1 
1 


16 



7693 
210 
146 


3049 



28 

Q 
<• 


32 



2 



1<( 



65-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



85-94 AT EXAM 35-64 COMBINED 

PERSON I OF ANNUAL I OF AGE- 

EXAMS EVENTS RATE EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



34 
2 
3 


39 



45 




51 



3703 

90 

120 


3913 



19 3 

3 17 

4 17 



26 3 



65-94 COMBINED 
I OF ACE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



29 
3 
5 


37 



3 
12 
16 



3 

13 
16 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


JSr44 

55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 




0.946 
0.906 
1 .027 
0.413 


0.459 
0.289 
0.2S4 
0.577 


0.039 
0.002 
0.001 
0.474 


0.240 
0.279 
0.382 
0.159 


. 0.117 
0.089 
0.095 
0.223 


35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.978 
0.885 


0.243 
0.230 


0.001 

0.001 


0.262 • 
0.334 


0.065 
0.087 


55-64 
65-94 


alVARIATE 
flIVARIATE 


0.873 
0.872 


0.245 
0.231 


0.001 
0.001 


0.234 
0.329 


0.066 
0.087 


35-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.794 
0.654 


0.272 
0.259 


O.0O4 
0.011 


0.212 
0.247 


0.073 
0.098 



SEX: FEMALE 

EVENT: SUDDEN DEATH FROM CORONARY HEART DISEASE 

RISK FACTOR: LEFT VENTRICULAR HYPERTROPHY BY ELECTROCARDIOGRAM 

PERSONS AT risk: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



35-44 AT EXAM 



RISK 
FACTOR 


PERSON 
EXAMS 


t OF 
EVENTS 


ANNUAL 
RATE 


PERSON 
EXAMS 


NO 

MILD 

DEFINITE 


5563 
38 
15 






9798 

107 

54 


UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



5616 







9959 


RISK 
FACTOR 


75- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


84 AT EXAM 

t OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


85 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


NO 

MILD 

DEFINITE 


1833 
49 
69 


11 
2 
2 


3 
20 
14 


111 
6 
6 


UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



1951 



15 


4 



123 



45-54 AT EXAM 

I OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 

5 





5 



85-94 AT EXAM 

I OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 



55-64 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



It 137 
226 
ISO 


11513 



13 




13 



• OF 
EVENTS 

18 




IS 



35-64 COMBINED 



65-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



CRUDE 



AGE- 
ADJUSTEO 

. 







5966 
134 
148 

0- 
6248 



13 


1 


14 



65-94 COMBINED 



f OF 

EVENTS 

26 
2 
i 

a 

31 



CRUDE 

2 

5 
7 



AGE- 
AOJUSTEir 

2 
5 
6 



AGE AT 
EXAM 

35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 

35-64 
65-94 

35-64 
o5-94 

35-64 
65-94 



COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 



0.449 
0.91 1 



UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 



8IVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 



MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 



0.7 57 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 
P-VALUE 



SE 
COEFFICIENT 



0.555 
0.342 



0.284 
0.286 
0.303 



0.418 
0.008 



O.OOS 
0.017 
0.043 



STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 



0.150 
0.361 



0.267 
0.240 
0.216 



STD 
SE 







185 
136 





100 





101 





107 



195 



RISK 
FACTOR 



TABLE 9-17 DATE=05JAN86 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
BY AGE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAM: FRAMINGHAM STUDY JO-YEAR FOLLOWUP 

sex: MALE 

EVENT: SUDDEN DEATH FROM CORONARY HEART DISEASE _ _ 

RISK FACTOR: INTRAVENTRICULAR CONDUCTION DEFECT (WITH QRS INTERVAL MORE THAN 0.11 SECOND) 
PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 

IS-',^ AT EXAM 45-5'^ AT EXAM 55-6'i AT EXAM 65-74 AT EXAM 

PERSON I OF ANNUAL PERSON t OF ANNUAL PERSON • OF ANNUAL PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



C 



NO '•161 

INCOMPLETE 275 

COMPLETE 36 



UNKNOMM 
TOTAL 










7724 


RISK 
FACTOR 


75- 
PERSOH 
EXAMS 


84 AT EXAM 

1 OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


85 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


NO 

INCOMPLETE 

COMPLETE 


915 
21 
78 


11 




6 




31 

2 
6 


UNKNOMN 
TOTAL 



1017 



1 1 


5 



59 



7213 

446 

45 


15 
1 



1 
1 



7384 
454 
207 


27 
2 

3 


2 
2 

7 


3564 
183 
144 


23 
1 
2 


3 
3 
6 



7724 



14 


1 



8049 



32 


2 



3913 



26 


3 



85-94 AT EXAM 

I OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 



35-64 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



45 
3 
3 


51 



65-94 COMBINED 
• OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



34 
1 
2 


37 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



. ■.i'Ki^i/ 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
- SE 


i 35-44 

i 45-54 

55-64 

65-74 




-0.155 
0.41 1 
0.258 


0.93S 

0.303 
0.346 


0.869 
0.044 
0.481 


-0.045 
0.235 
0-.I15 


0.27S 
0.117 
Q.U3 


75-84 
«5-94 




" 




• 






1 35-64 
! 65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.541 
-0.029 


0.294 
0.359 


0.066 
0.936 


0.180 
-0.013. 


0.098 
0.1i9 


35-64 
65-94 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0,431 
-0.074 


0.2S8 
0.35S 


0.135 
0.835 


0.144 
-0.035 


0.096 
0.167 


j 35-44 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.499 
-0.057 


0.297 
0.36Z 


0.092 
0.874 


0.166 
-0.027 


0.099 
0.170 



SEX: FEMALE 

EVENT: SUDDEN DEATH FROM CORONARY HEART DISEASE 

RISK FACTOR: INTRAVENTRICULAR CONDUCTION DEFECT (WITH 9RS INTERVAL MORE THAN 0.11 SECOND) 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 
FACTOR 

NO 

INCOMPLETE 

COMPLETE 



35-44 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

5529 

75 
12 



45-54 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



9771 

144 

44 



53-64 AT EXAM 
PERSON « OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1 1 183 
187 
143 



12 

1 



65-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



6027 
1 15 
106 



UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



5616 




9959 




11513 




13 




6248 




14 



RISK 
FACTOR 

NO 

INCOMPLETE 

COMPLETE 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



75-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1847 
36 
68 


1951 



14 4 



1 7 



15 4 



S5-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



35-44 COMBINED 
• OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



117 
1 
5 


17 

1 



123 



18 



45-94 COMBINED 
• OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



29. 

2 


34. 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 

COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 




0.822 
0.621 
0.246 


0.556 
0.556 
0.546 


0.140 
0.264 
0.653 


0.208 
0.179 
0.095 


0.141 
0.141 
0.212 


35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.859 
0.452 


0.562 
0.390 


0.126 
0.246 


0.179 
0. 143 


0.117 
0.124 


35-64 
65-94 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.649 
0.354 


0.558 
0.389 


0.245 
0.359 


0.135 
0.113 


0.116 
0.123 


35-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.488 
0-376 


0.560 
0.391 


0.219 
0.336 


0.143 
0.119 


0.117 
0.124 



c 



196 



TABLE 9-18 DATE=05JAN86 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
Br AGE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAMi FRAMINGHAM STUDY JO-YEAR FOLLOWUP , ■ 

SEX! MALE 

EVENT! SUDDEN DEATH FROM CORONARY HEART DISEASE 

RISK FACTOR; DEFINITE NONSPECIFIC T-WAVE OR ST-SEGMENT ABNORMALITY BY ELECTROCARDIOGRAM 

PERSONS AT RISK! PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 
FACTOR 



NO 
YES 



UNKNOMN 
TOTAL 



35-44 AT EXAM 45-54 AT EXAM 

PERSON I OF ANNUAL PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



4362 
110 




4472 



55-64 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



65-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



7352 
372 


14 
2 


1 
3 


7462 
587 


29 

3 


2 

J 


3472 
441 


16 
10 


2 

1 1 



7724 



16 


1 



8049 


' 
32 


2 



3913 



26 


3 



RISK 
FACTOR 



NO 
YES 



UNKNOHN 
TOTAL 



AGE AT 
EXAM 

35-44 

45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 

35-64 
65-94 

35-64 
65-94 

35-64 
65-94 



75-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

830 

187 




1017 



35-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



35-64 COMBINED 
t OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 



BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 



MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 



10 

1 


6 
3 


28 
11 




46 

5 




11 


5 



39 


LOGISTIC 



SI 

REGRESSIONS 


COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VAIUE 


1 .041 

0.275 

1 .612 

-0.819 






0.758 
0.608 
0.406 
1.052 


0.169 
0.651 
0.001 
0.436 


0.670 
1 .065 






0.472 
0.362 


0.156 
0.003 


0.448 
0.981 






0.474 
0.366 


0.345 
0.007 


0.083 
0.941 






0.484 
0.369 


0.863 
0.011 



65-94 COMBINED 
• OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 



0.223 

0.072 

0.510 

-0.317 



0.150 
0.356 



0.100 
0.328 



0.019 
0.315 



26 
11 




37 



STO 
SE 



0. 162 
0. 153 
0.129 
0.408 



0.106 
0.121 



0.106 
0.1ZZ 



0.108 
0.124 



SEX! FEMALE 

EVENT! SUDDEN DEATH FROM CORONARY HEART DISEASE 

RISK FACTOR! DEFINITE NONSPECIFIC T-WAVE OR ST-SEGMENT ABNORMALITY BY ELECTROCARDIOGRAM 

PERSONS AT RISK! PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 
FACTOR 


PERSON 
EXAMS 


» OF 
EVENTS 


ANNUAL 

RATE 


PERSON 
EXAMS 


t OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


NO 
YES 


5517 
99 






9543 
416 


4 
1 1 


UNKNOHN 
TOTAL 



5616 







9959 




5 


RISK 
FACTOR 


75- 
PERSOM 
EXAMS 


84 AT EXAM 

• OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


85- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


94 AT EXAM 

• OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


NO 
YES 


1632 
319 


13 
2 


4 

3 


97 

26 




UNKNOHN 
TOTAL 



1951 



IS 


4 



125 





55-64 AT EXAM 
PERSON « OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



10647 
866 




11513 



10 
3 




13 



I OF 
EVENTS 



14 
4 



35-64 COMBINED 



65-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON » OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 




18 



CRUDE 



AGE- 
ADJUSTED 



5528 
720 




6248 



12 
2 




14 



6S-94 COMBINED 
• OF AGE- 

EVENTS ■ CRUDE ADJUSTED 



27 




31 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VAlUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 




1 .749 

1.508 

0.247 

-0.241 


1.119 
0.659 
0.765 
0.762 


0.118 
0.047 
0.747 
0.752 


0.350 

0.345 

0.079 

-0.089 


0.224 
0.174 
0.244 
0.282 


55-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


1.674 
0.009 


0.568 
0.557 


0.005 
0.986 


0.568 
0.003 


0.125 
0.179 


55-64 
65-94 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


1 .305 
-0.133 


0.572 
0.559 


0.023 
0.805 


0.287 
■ -0.044 


0.126 
0.180 


55-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


1 .328 
-0.136 


0.576 
0.541 


0.021 
0.802 


0.292 
-0.045 


0.127 
0.181 



197 



TABLE 10-t DATE=05JANg« 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
BY AGE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAM' FRAMINGHAM STUDY JO-YEAR FOLLOWUP 



RISK 
FACTOR 

7<<-t 19 
120-139 
140-159 
160-179 
1S0-300 

UNKNOHN 
TOTAL 



SEX: MALE 

EVENT: SUDDEN DEATH FROM CORONARY HEART DISEASE 

RISK FACTOR: SYSTOLIC BLOOD PRESSURE, FIRST EXAMINER (MM HG) 

PERSONS AT RISK: ALL PERSONS ALIVE 



J5-<44 AT EXAM 15-5* AT EXAM 

PERSON f OF ANNUAL PERSON » OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1226 

219r 

259 

197 

53 




*S19 



55-61 AT EXAM 
PERSON » OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



6 5-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1842 


4 


1 


1605 


6 


2 


659 


2 


2 


iS-iZ 


12 


2 


3525 


22 


3 


1636 


11 


3 


183S 


6 


2 


2371 


16 


3 


1473 


19 


6 


598 


4 


3 


1062 


9 


4 


696 


9 


6 


Z<i7 








507 


7 


7 


570 


i 


11 








» 








_ 





a 


_ 


8067 


26 


2 


9070 


60 


5 


4SJ4 


49 


5 



( 



RISK 
FACTOR 

74-119 
120-1 39 
140-159 
160-179 
180-500 

UNKNOHN 
TOTAL 



75-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON < OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



14"4 


5 


10 


451 


3 


J 


41 1 


6 


7 


218 


4 


9 


121 


5 


21 








- 


)345 


21 


S 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

8 
17 
17 

6 

2 

a 

50 



35-64 COMBINED 
i OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



13 
35 
22 

13 
7 


90 



65-94 COMBINED 
• OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



5 

14 
25 
13 
13 



70 



3 
3 

7 

7 

13 



3 
3 

7 

7 

13 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 




0.009 
0.013 
0.017 
0.016 


0.009 
0.005 
0.005 
0.008 


0.341 
0.014 
0.001 
0.055 


0.171 
0.Z78 
0.387 
O.J7<t 


0.180 
0.114 
0.122 
0.195 


85-94 














JS-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.014 
0.017 


0,004 
0,004 


0.001 
0.001 


0.292 
0.J8S 


0.090 
0.103 


35-64 
65-94 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.009 
0.017 


0.005 
0.004 


0.046 
0,001 


0.184 
O.SSS 


0.092 
0.104 


35-64 

65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


-0.001 
0.012 


O.OOS 
0.005 


0,858 
0.013 


-O.018 
0.277 


0.100 
0.111 



SEX: FEMALE 

EVENT: SUDDEN DEATH FROM CORONARY HEART DISEASE 

RISK FACTOR: SYSTOLIC BLOOD PRESSURE, FIRST EXAMINER (MM HG) 

PERSONS AT RISK: ALL PERSONS ALIVE 



RISK 
FACTOR 

74-1 19 
120-139 
140-159 
160-179 
180-300 

UNKNOMN 
TOTAL 



55-44 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

2493 
2245 

674 

156 
51 

9 
5619 



45-54 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



27 24 

4027 

2086 

785 

450 


10072 



1 

2 
1 



1 1 



5 



55-64 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



2039 
4199 
3197 
1682 
986 


12103 



2 
1 
9 
3 



15 



65-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON f OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



683 


2 


1 


1918 


6 


2 


2283 


6 


1 


1360 


7 


3 


859 . 


7 


4 








. 


7103 


28 


2 



RISK 
FACTOR 

74-119 
120-139 
140-159 
160-179 
180-300 

UNKNOMN 
TOTAL 



AGE AT 
EXAM 

35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 

35-64 
65-94 

35-64 
65-94 

55-64 
65-94 



7 5-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON f OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



158 
561 
759 
561 
380 


2419 



1 
4 
5 

9 

4 


25 



COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 



0.019 
0.005 
0.014 
0.004 



UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 



BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 



MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 



015 
010 



007 
009 



009 
005 



10 
51 
40 
36 
26 


J 

5 

10 

5 
1 



165 



20 


LOGISTIC 


REGRESSIONS 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALue 


0.015 
0.010 
0.007 
0.008 


0.144 
0.602 
0.059 
0.643 


0.007 
0.005 


0.041 
0.042 


0.008 
0,005 


0.400 
0.094 


0.009 
0.005 


0.286 
0.585 



55-64 COMEINED 
• OF AGE- 
EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 





1 1 
1 




STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 



65-94 COMBINED 
« OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



0.44t 
0.127 
0.549 
0.094 



0.5S7 
0.258 



a.1«7 
0.215 



O.ZZO 
0.1I« 



3 

11 
11 
17 
.11 


55 



STD 
SE 



0.302 
0.243 
0.169 
0.203 



175 
127 



198 

128 



206 
154 



198 



TABLE 10-2 DATE=05JAN«6 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
BY AGE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAM: FRAMINGHAM STUDY JO-YEAR FOLLOWUP 

SEXi MALE 

EVENT I SUDDEN DEATH FROM CORONARY HEART DISEASE 

RISK FACTOR: DIASTOLIC BLOOD PRESSURE, FIRST EXAMINER (MM HG) 

PERSONS AT RISK: ALL PERSONS ALIVE 



RISK 
FACTOR 

20-7<i 

85-94 

95-IO"< 

105-140 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



35-<i'i AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

1015 
1617 
120i 

51)9 

175 


:i5l9 



<.5-S'i AT EXAM SS-i', AT EXAM 

•PERSON I OF ANNUAL PERSON I OF ANNUAL 

EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



65-7:* AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



15:iJ 

2861 

2151 

1075 

<ii9 


5 
7 
8 

"4 

2 


2 
1 

2 
2 
2 


2092 
3165 
2228 
11 m 


18 

13 

16 

9 

i, 


2 

4 


1521 

I6ii3 

1072 

:i25 

170 


9 
12 
13 
12 

3 


3 
<i 
6 
1<i 
9 



8067 



26 


2 



9070 



60 


3 






■49 


5 



RISK 
•FACTOR 

ZO-74 
7S-8« 

85-9<i 

95-104 
105-160 

UNKNOMN 
TOTAL 



7 5-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



560 

440 

244 

71 

30 


1345 



7 
7 
3 
2 
2 


21 



6 

8 

6 

14 

53 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

30 
15 

5 






50 



35-64 COMBINED 
t OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



24 
21 
24 
M 
i 


90 



65-94 COMBINED 
« OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



16 
19 
16 
14 
5 


70 



4 

5 

6 

14 

13 



4 

5 

6 

14 

14 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 




0.014 
0.008 
0.054 
0.024 


0.016 
0.010 
0.010 
0.017 


0.585 
0.425 
0.001 
0.160 


0.164 
0.100 
0.425 
0.293 


0. 138 
0. 126 
0.124 
0.209 


85-94 














35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.008 
0.050 


0.009 
0.009 


0.551 
0.001 


0.096 
0.573 


0.105 
0.107 


55-64 
65-^4 


BIVARIATE 
9IVARIATE 


0.009 
0.055 


0.008 
0.009 


0.310 
0.001 


0.102 
0.429 


0.101 
0.108 


55-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


-0.005 
0.028 


0.008 
. 0.009 


0.717 
0.002 


-0.056 
0.546 


0.098 
0.110 



SEX: FEMALE 

EVENT: SUDDEN DEATH FROM CORONARY HEART DISEASE 

RISK FACTOR: DIASTOLIC BLOOD PRESSURE, FIRST EXAMINER <MM HC) 

PERSONS AT RISK: ALL PERSONS ALIVE 



RISK 
FACTOR 

20-74 
75-84 
85-94 
95-104 
105-160 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



55-44 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

2164 
2051 

988 

524 

112 


5619 



45-54 AT EXAM 55-64 AT EXAM 

PERSON I OF ANNUAL PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

26 57 
357 3 
2395 

941 

506 


10072 



1 





3110 







2 





4005 




1 


1 





3000 




1 



1 




1 


1348 
640 






1 





. 







- 


5 





12105 


15 


1 



65-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



2069 


9 


2 


2416 


11 


2 


1622 


2 


1 


685 


3 


2 


511 . 


3 


5 








_ 


7105 


28 


2 



RISK 
FACTOR 

20-74 
7S-84 
85-94 
95-104 
105-160 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



AGE AT 
EXAM 

55-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 

35-64 
65-94 

55-64 
65-94 

35-64 
65-94 



75-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



916 
722 
535 
178 
68 


2419 



10 
5 
5 

2 

1 


25 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON « OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



35-64 COMBINED 
• OF -AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 



0.021 

0.007 

0.004 

-0.011 



UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 



BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 



MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 



0.017 
-0.008 



0.011 
-0.002 



0.014 
-0.002 



75 

56 

25 

7 

2 





65 


20 


LOGISTIC 


REGRESSIONS 


SE 

COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


0.052 
0.020 
0.015 
0.017 


0.516 
0.729 
0.772 
0.528 


0.017 
0.01 1 


0.510 
0.478 


0.017 
0.011 


0.555 
0.8 56 


0.018 
0.011 


0.433 
0.882 



6S-94 COMBINED - 

I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 



0.257 

0.087 

0.054 

-0.156 



0.208 
-0. 100 



0.131 
-0.025 



0.170 
-0.021 



21 
14 - 

7 

5 

4 


55 



STD 
SE 



0.596 
0.251 
0.187 
0.215 



0.205 
0.141 



21 1 
140 



217 
158 



199 - 



TABLE 10-3A DATE = I)SJAN86 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
BY AGE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAM: FRAMINGHAM STUDY JO-YEAR FQLLOHUP 



SEX: MALE 

EVENT: SUDDEN DEATH FROM CORONARY HEART DISEASE 

RISK FACTOR: HYPERTENSION WITH ANTIHYPERTENSIVE TREATMENT 

PERSONS AT RISK: ALL PERSONS ALIVE 



r 



RISK 
FACTOR 

NO 

MILD 
DEFINITE 
TREATED 

UNXNOMN 
TOTAL 



35-^« AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 

EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

26iS 

1316 

511, 

Z<< 


<i5t9 



tS-St AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



■4263 

2287 

1216 

301 


8067 



9 
9 
5 
3 


26 



55-6<i AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 

EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1163 

2573 

I'iSl 

903 


9070 



16 
17 
1 1 
16 


60 



65-7<i AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 

EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1803 

1520 

698 

813 


i<83<< 



7 
16 
10 
16 


ii9 



2 

5 

7 

10 



RISK 

FACTOR 

NO 

MUD 

DEFINITE 
TREATED 

UNKN014N 
TOTAL 



7 5-8'i AT EXAM 
PERSON « OF ANNUAL 

EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



<i65 

194 
262 


1315 



4 
5 
5 
7 


21 



6 
13 
13 



8S-9<. AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

19 

16 

5 

1 


50 



35-64 COMBINED 
» OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



27 
27 
16 
20 


90 



65-94 COMBINED 
• OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



1 1 
21 
1 5 
23 


70 



2 

5 

8 

11 



2 

5 

8 

1 1 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 




9. 46 J 
0.556 
0.697 
0.609 


0.237 
0.157 
0. 190 
0.290 


0.051 
0.001 
0.001 
0.036 


0,358 
0.457 
0.576 
0.504 


0.184 
0.129 
0.157 
0.240 


35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.612 
0.677 


. 1 2S 
0.159 


0. 001 
0.001 


0.481 
0.560 


0.100 
O.ISI 


35-64 
65-94 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.494 
0.670 


0.12S 
0.159 


0.001 
0.001 


0.389 
0.554 


o.toi 

0.131 


35-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


319 
0.583 


0.135 
0.165 


0.019 
0.001 


0.251 
0.482 


0.10« 

a. Mi 



SEX: FEMALE 

EVENT: SUDDEN DEATH FROM CORONARY HEART DISEASE 

RISK FACTOR: HYPERTENSION WITH ANTIHYPERTENSIVE TREATMENT 

PERSONS AT RISK: ALL PERSONS ALIVE 



RISK 

FACTOR 

NO 

MUD 
DEFINITE 
TREATED 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



35-44 AT EXAM 45-54 AT EXAM 

PERSON t OF ANNUAL PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



4251 

1002 

316 

50 


5619 



5660 

261 1 

1 184 

617 


10072 



2 

1 

1 

I 1 



5 



55-64 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



4992 
3449 
1950 
1712 


12103 



3 
8 
2 
2 


15 



65-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1871 
21 16 
1 198 
1918 


7105 



5 

15 




28 



RISK 

FACTOR 

NO 

MILD 
DEFINITE 
TREATED 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



AGE AT 
EXAM 

35-44 

45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 



75-44 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



476 
694 
469 
780 


2419 



35-64 
65-94 



35-64 
65-94 



UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 



BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 



3 

4 

4 

12 


23 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



55-64 COMBINED 
» OF - AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE AIUUSTEO 



COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 



0.575 
0.249 
0.698 
0.466 



539 
587 



251 
524 



55-64 MULTIVARIATE 
65-94 MULTIVARIATE 



40 
37 
35 
51 


5 
9 
5 
3 



163 



20 


LOGISTIC 


REGRESSIONS 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


531 

0.307 
0.284 
0.515 


0.281 
0.417 
0.014 
0.137 


0.263 
0.202 


0.041 
0.004 


0.270 
0.202 


0.352 
0.009 


0.272 
0.205 


0.272 
0.746 



65-94 COMBINED 
» OF AGE' 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 



0.442 
0.209 
0.572 
0.364 



431 
477 



201 
426 



259 
332 



8 
8 

10 
27 

.0 
53 



STD 
SE 



0.409 
0.257 
232 
0.245 



210 
164 



216 
164 



e 



0.218 
0.167 



- 200 



TABLE tO-JB DATE = 0SJAN8(5 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
BY AGE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAM. FRAMINGHAM STUDY 30-YEAR FOLLOWUP 

SEXi MALE 

EVENT. SUDDEN DEATH FROM CORONARY HEART DISEASE 
RISK FACTOR. HYPERTENSION IGNORING TREATMENT 
PERSONS AT RISK. ALL PERSONS ALIVE 



RISK 
FACTOR 

NO 

MILD 

DEFINITE 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



PERSON 
EXAMS 

2672 

1326 

521 


.4519 



35-.*4 AT EXAM 



• OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 



i,5-5'> AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



430i 
23«S 
1278 



S067 



10 
9 
7 


26 



55-64 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



4347 
2922 

laoi 


9070 



21 
22 
17 


60 



65 

PERSON 
EXAMS 

1980 
1852 
1002 


4834 



•74 AT EXAM 

I OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 



9 
25 
15 


49 



RISK 
FACTOR 

NO 

MILD 
DEFINITE 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



75-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 

EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



85-94 AT EXAM 



526 

543 
276 


1345 



6 
6 
9 


21 



6 

6 

16 



PERSON 
EXAMS 

24 

21 
5 


50 



I OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 



I OF 
EVENTS 

J<i 
32 
24 

a 

90 



35-64 COMBINED 



AGE- 
ADJUSTED 

2 
2 
3 



• OF 
EVENTS 

IS 
31 
24 


70 



65-94 COMBINED 



CRUDE 

3 
6 
9 



AGE- 
ADJUSTED 

3 
6 
9 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


SID 

SE 


35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 




0.598 
0.341 
0.551 
0.579 


0.242 
0.160 
0.187 
0.292 


0.099 
0.033. 
0.003 
0.047 


0.302 
0.264 
0.418 
0.434 


0.183 
0.124 
0.142 
0.219 


55-94 














35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.392 
0.563 


0.131 
0.157 


0.003 
0.001 


0.296 
0.426 


0.099 
0.119 


35-64 
65-94 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.310 
0.567 


0.1 3Z 
0.157 


0.019 
0.001 


0.234 
0.429 


0.099 
0.119 


35-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.089 
0.443 


0.140 
0.164 


0.525 
0.006 


0.067 
0.339 


0.106 
0.124 



SEX. FEMALE 

EVENT. SUDDEN DEATH FROM CORONARY HEART DISEASE 
RISK FACTOR. HYPERTENSION IGNORING TREATMENT 
PERSONS AT RISK. ALL PERSONS ALIVE 



RISK 
FACTOR 

NO 

MILD 

DEFINITE 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



35-44 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 

EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

4273 

1017 

329 


5619 



45-54 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



584« 
2803 
1423 


10072 



2 

2 

1 



5 



55-64 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 

EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



5415 
4079 
2609 


12103 



3 

10 

2 


15 



65-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



2205 
2907 
1991 


7103 



6 1 

9 2 

13 3 



28 2 



RISK 
FACTOR 

NO 

MILD 

DEFINITE 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



AGE AT 
EXAM 

35-44 
4 5-54 

55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 



75-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 

EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



613 

1003 

803 


2419 



35-64 
65-94 



35-64 
65-94 



35-64 
65-94 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



4 

10 

9 


23 



COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 



35-64 COMBINED 
» OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 



BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 



MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 



0.405 
0.262 
0.487 
0.247 



0.487 
0.397 



0.232 
0.350 



0.280 
0.240 



52 

57 
54 


5 

t2 

i 



163 




20 


LOGISTIC 


REGRESSIONS 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VAIUE 


0.558 
0.322 
0.255 
0.282 


0.468 
0.415 
0.057 
0.381 


0.274 
0.185 


0.075 
0.031 


0.282 
0.185 


0.411 
0.059 


0.286 
0. 189 


0.327 
0.206 



65-94 COMBINED 
• OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



11 
19 
23 


53 



STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 



0.295 
0.205 
0.374 
0.188 



0.363 
0.305 



0.173 
0.269 



0.209 
0.184 



STD 
SE 



0.406 
0.251 
0. 196 
0.214 



204 
142 



210 
142 



213 

145 



201 - 



TABLE 10-14 DATE = 0SJAN!S 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
BY AGE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAM^ FRAMINGMAM STUDY 30-YEAR FOLLOWUP 

SEX: MALE 

EVENT: SUDDEN DEATH FROM CORONARY HEART DISEASE 

RISK FACTOR: SERUM CHOLESTEROL 

PERSONS AT RISK-- ALL PERSONS ALIVE 



RISX 
FACTOR 

!^-20« 
205-23'< 
235-264 
265-294 
295-1 12i< 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



35-44 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

1253 
I25« 

S83 
.48S 

503 

334 
4519 



45-54 AT EXAM 55-64 AT EXAM 65-74 AT EXAM 

PERSON • OF ANNUAL PERSON I OF ANNUAL PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1407 
2390 
1343 
1057 
619 

351 
S067 



3 
7 
6 
5 
5 


26 



2484 
2695 
2128 
1075 
556 

132 
9070 



7 
22 
16 
10 

5 


60 



1530 


17 


6 


1457 


1 1 


4 


1059 


12 


6 


525 


6 


6 


246 


2 


4 


17 


1 


29 


4834 


49 


5 



RISK 
FACTOR 

84-204 
205-254 
235-264 
265-294 
295-1124 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



75-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 

EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



537 
422 
232 
130 
24 


1345 



7 
8 
4 
2 



21 



85-94 AT EXAM 35-64 COMBINED 

PERSON » OF ANNUAL t OF AGE- 

EXAMS EVENTS RATE EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 

23 

14 
7 
6 



50 



65-94 COMBINED 
• OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



10 


1 


1 


24 


6 


6 


29 


2 


2 


19 


5 


5 


24 


2 


2 


16 


6 


6 


15 


3 


3 


8 


6 


6 


12 


4 


4 


2 


4 


3 











1 


29 


23 


90 


2 


2 


70 


6 


6 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 

EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 

COEFFICIENT. 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 




0.010 

0.006 

-0.001 

-0.001 


0.003 
0.003 
0.004 
0.006 


0.001 
0.022 
0.850 
0.880 


0.420 
0.264 
-0.028 
-0.053 • 


o.tas 

0.115 
l).14« 
0.221 


SS-44 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


O.OOS 
-0.001 


0.002 
0.003 


0.001 
0.704 


. 346 
-0.046 


0.082 
0.122 


35-64 
65-94 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.009 
-0.000 


0.002 
0.005 


0.001 
0.958 


0.375 
-0.009 


0.0S4 
0.123 


55-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.0O9 
-0.000 


0.002 
0.005 


0.001 
0.981 


0.385 
-0.005 


o.aa 

0.123 



SEX: FEMALE 

EVENT: SUDDEN DEATH FROM CORONARY HEART DISEASE 

RISK FACTOR" SERUM CHOLESTEROL 

PERSONS AT RISK: AIL PERSONS ALIVE 



RISK 
FACTOR 

84-204 
205-254 
255-264 
265-294 
295-1124 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



55-44 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

2350 
1419 

807 

572 

171 

500 
5619 



45-54 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



2120 
2590 
2268 
1490 
1124 

480 
10072 



55-64 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1714 
2741 
5052 
2364 
1999 

233 
12105 



2 
2 

2 
7 
2 


15 



65-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON r OF ANNUAL 

EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



897 
1570 
1912 
1472 
1215 

57 
7103 



1 
2 
2 
2 
5 

14 
2 



RISK 
FACTOR 

84-204 
205-254 
255-264 
265-294 
295-1124 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



ACE AT 
EXAM 

55-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 



7 5-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 

EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



463 
588 
660 
419 
282 

7 
2419 



55-64 
65-94 



35-64 
65-94 



35-64 
65-94 



3 
8 

6 
5 

1 


25 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



55-64 COMBINED 
t OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUOt ADJUSTED 



COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 



0.006 

0.005 

0.005 

-0.005 



UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 



BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 



MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 



0.006 
-O.OOI 



O.OOS 
0.001 



0.004 
0.002 



60 
59 
42 
12 
10 


2 

5 
4 
7 
4 



165 



20 


LOGISTIC 


REGRESSIONS 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


0.004 
0.005 
0.004 
0.005 


0.113 
0.584 
0.221 
0.526 


0.005 
0.005 


0.022 
0.756 


0.004 
0.005 


0.275 
0.726 


0.004 
0.003 


0.541 
0.619 



65-94 COMBINED 
• OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE AOJUSriD 



7 
15 
1-i 
1 1 

8 

1 
55 



STANDARDIZES 
COEFFICIENT 



0.277 

0.156 

0.222 

-a . 1 56 



0.287 
-0.044 



0.215 
0.049 



0.198 
0.068 



2 
5 
2 
3 
3 

1 1 
5 



STD 
SE 



0. 174 
0.248 
0. 181 
0.214 



125 
140 



195 

140 



2 
3 

2 

• 5 

5 

10 
5 



C 



0.208 
0.157 



- 202 - 



TABLE 10-5 DATE=05JAN84 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT iilSK AT EXAM 
BY AGE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAM; FRAMINGHAM STUDY 30-YEAR FOLLOWUP 

SEX: MALE 

EVENT: SUDDEN DEATH FROM CORONARY HEART DISEASE 

RISK FACTOR: HEMATOCRIT 

PERSONS AT RISK: ALL PERSONS ALIVE 



RISK 
FACTOR 

25-42 
43-44 
45-44 
47-48 
49-70 

UNKNOMN 
TOTAL 



35-44 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 

EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

630 

551 

990 
■ 786 
1192 

370 
4519 



45-54 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



941 

994 

1942 

15S5 

Z19J 

390 
8047 




24 



55-44 AT EXAM 
PERSON » OF ANNUAL 

EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1121 
1094 
2215 
1825 
26 54 

159 
9070 



4 

4 

14 

11 

23 


40 



65-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 

EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



558 


5 


4 


61 1 


4 


3 


1 194 


7 


3 


1069 


9 


4 


1382 


23 


8 


20 


1 


25 


4834 


49 


5 



RISK 
FACTOR 

25-42 

43-44 
45-44 
47-48 
49-70 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



7 5-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON ( OF ANNUAL 

EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



283 


4 


7 


149 


5 


15 


313 


1 


2 


244 


6 


11 


314 


5 


8 








_ 


1345 


21 


8 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON f OF ANNUAL 

EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

19 
8 
7 
9 
7 


50 



35-44 COMBINED 
• OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



45-94 COMBINED 
t OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



10 


2 


2 


9 


5 


5 


10 


2 


2 


9 


6 


6 


23 


2 


2 


8 


3 


3 


14 


2 


2 


15 


4 


6 


33 


3 


3 


28 


8 


8 











1 


25 


19 


90 


2 


2 


70, 


4 


6 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


^I" 


35-44 

45-54 
55-44 
45-74 
75-84 
85-94 




-0.014 
0.037 
0.086 
0.034 


0.055 
0.035 
0.040 
0.054 


0.792 
0.281 
0.031 
0.530 


-0.052 
0.141 
0.315- 
0.140 


0.196 
0.130 
0.144 
0.223 


35-44 
45-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.024 
0.044 


0.029 
0.032 


0.349 
0.049 


0.095 
0.Z4Z 


0.104 
0.123 


35-44 
45-94 


8IVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.023 
0.075 


0. 029 
0.032 


0.411 
0.020 


0.087 

a.zsj 


0.105 
0.122 


35-44 
45-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.004 
0.072 


0.029 
0.033 


0.890 
0.029 


0.015 
0.Z7Z 


0.104 
0.124 



SEX: FEMALE 

EVENT: SUDDEN DEATH FROM CORONARY HEART DISEASE 

RISK FACTOR: HEMATOCRIT 

PERSONS AT RISK: ALL PERSONS ALIVE 



RISK 
FACTOR 


PERSON 
EXAMS 


• OF 
EVENTS 


ANNUAL 
RATE 


PERSON 
EXAMS 


21-59 
40-41 
42-43 
44-45 
44-45 


1498 
947 

1043 
858 

447 






1858 
1741 
1978 
2222 

1702 


UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 


544 
5419 






551 
10072 


RISK 
FACTOR 


75- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


84 AT EXAM 

1 OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


85 

PERSON 
EXAMS 


21-39 
40-41 
42-43 
44-45 
44-45 


375 
449 
437 
407 
545 




4 
4 
2 
4 
8 


33 
39 
24 
34 
31 


UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 


6 
2419 


23 



5 



163 



45-54 AT EXAM 

♦ OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 



85-94 AT EXAM 

I OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 



55-64 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 

EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1409 
2144 
2371 
3003 
2700 

276 
12103 



2 

1 
1 
5 
4 


15 



45-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 

EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



35-44 COMSINED 
i OF JSGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



3 

1 
1 
7 
8 


20 



751 
1180 
1422 
1835 
1873 

42 

7103 



4 
3 
4 
9 
7 

1 
28 



3 
1 
1 
2 
2 

12 
2 



.65-94 COMBINED _ - 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



8 

-7 

7 

14 

14 

1 
53 



3 

2 
2 
3 

3 

10 
3 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


35-44 
45-54 
55-44 
45-74 
75-84 
85-94 




0.11Z 

0.115 
0.033 
0.053 


0.128 
0.074 
0.055 
0.055 


0.382 
0. 120 
0.555 
0.333 


0.400 
0.399 
0.115 
0.204 


0.454 
0.254 
0.195 
0.213 


35-44 
45-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.14-3 
0.025 


0.043 
0.039 


0.022 
0.515 


0.515 
0.092 


0.224 
0.140 


35-44 
45-94 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0. 1 04 
0.038 


0.044 
0.034 


a . 1 04 
0.321 


0.374 
0. 137 


0.231 
0.134 


35-44 
45-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.074 
0.031 


0.044 
0.034 


0.237 
0.408 


0.281 
0.113 


0.234 
0.136 



-203 



TABLE 10-4 DATE=05JAN5« 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
BY AGE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAM: FRAMINGHAM STUDY 30-YEAR FOLLOWUP 

SEXi MALE 

EVENT 1 SUDDEN DEATH FROM CORONARY HEART DISEASE 

RISK FACTOR: BLOOD GLUCOSE (MG/DL) 

PERSONS AT RISK: ALL PERSONS ALIVE 



RISK 
FACTOR 

29-69 

70-S9 

90-109 

1 10-129 

liO-52'* 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



35-'i'4 AT EXAM 45-51 AT EXAM 

PERSON • OF ANNUAL PERSON » OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

1004 
2531 

62S 

1.07 
49 

200 
4519 



55-64 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



65-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1562 

4344 

1402 

331 

204 


6 
12 

5 
1 
2 


2 
1 
2 
2 

5 


1208 

4526 

2136 

60S 

491 


5 

28 

15 

S 

4 


2 
3 
4 
7 
4 


501 

2142 

1296 

428 

450 


4 
20 
1 3 

5 
6 


4 
5 
5 
6 
7 


224 
8067 



26 



2 


1 01 
9070 



60 




3 


17 
4834 


1 
49 


29 

5 



RISK 
FACTOR 

29-69 

70-89 

90-109 

110-129 

130-524 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



75-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



86 








479 


8 


8 


438 


6 


7 


170 


3 


9 


172 


4 


12 








- 


1345 


21 


8 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON f OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

1 
17 
15 

7 
10 


50 



35-64 COMBINED 
• OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



65-94 COMBINED 
t OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



11 


1 


2 


4 




3 


43 


Z 


2 


28 




5 


21 


3 


2 


19 




5 


9 


« 


3 


8 




6 


i 


4 


4 


10 




3 


a 








1 


29 


23 


90 


2 


2 


70 




6 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


35-44 

45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 




0.006 
0.006 
0.005 
0.002 


0.005 
0,003 
0.003 
0.006 


0.244 

0.031 
0.051 
0.696 


0.142 
0.180 
0.183 
0.077 


0.122 
0.083 
0. 094 
0. 198 


85-94 














35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.008 
0.005 


O.OOZ 
0.002 


0.001 
0.050 


0.193 
0.145 


0.058 
0.084 


35-64 
65-9* 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.005 
0.004 


0.003 
0.002 


0.033 

0.077 


0.138 

0.155 


0.06« 
0.088 


35-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.005 
0.004 


0.003 
0.002 


0.032 
0.119 


0.140 
0.138 


0.065 
0.089 



SEX: FEMALE 

EVENT: SUDDEN DEATH FROM CORONARY HEART DISEASE 

RISK FACTOR: BLOOD GLUCOSE (MG/DL) 

PERSONS AT RISK: ALL PERSONS ALIVE 



c 



RISK 
FACTOR 

29-69 

70-89 

90-109 

1 10-129 

130-524 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



35-44 AT EXAM 45-54 AT EXAM 

PERSON I OF ANNUAL PERSON « OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

1067 

3414 

672 

96 

39 

331 
5619 



55-64 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



65-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON « OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1806 


1 





1411 


5 


2 


597 


4 


3 


5811 


3 





6371 


7 


1 


3483 


9 


1 


1646 








2877 


3 


1 


1982 


7 


2 


303 








777 








582 


2 


2 


167 


1 


3 


496 








427 


5 


6 


339 








171 








32 


1 


16 


10072 


s 





12103 


15 


1 


7103 


28 


2 



RISK 
FACTOR 

29-69 

70-89 

90-109 

1 10-129 

130-524 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



AGE AT 
EXAM 

35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 

35-64 
65-94 

55-64 
65-94 

35-64 
65-94 



75-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



129 
976 
803 
286 
224 

1 
2419 



1 

5 
6 
6 
5 


23 



4 

3 

4 

10 

II 


5 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON < OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



35-64 COMBINED 
i OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 



0.015 

-0.043 

0.007 

0.009 



UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 



BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 



MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 



003 
009 



012 
008 



-0.012 
0.007 



5 
60 
63 
19 
16 


10 



63 


zo 


LOGISTIC 


REGRESSIONS 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


0.008 
0.020 
0-004 
0.003 


0.065 
0.035 
0,074 
0. 002 


0.012 
0.002 


0.768 
0.001 


0.014 
0.002 


0.358 
0.001 


0.013 

0.002 


0.356 
0.004 



65-94 COMBINED 
« OF AGE- - 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 



0.29t 

-1 .162 

0.206 

0.318 



-0.078 
0.268 



-0.286 
0.242 



-0.285 
0.223 



5 

15 

14 

8 

10 

1 
53 



3 
2 
2 

5 
7 

15 
3 



STD 
SE 



158 
552 
115 
103 



0.266 
0.072 



0.311 
0.076 



309 
0.078 



S 
2 

2- 

4 
7 

11 
3 



204 



TABLE 10-7 DATE=05JAN86 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
BY AGE AND LEVEL OF RISPC FACTOR AT EXAM: FRAMINGHAM STUDY 30-YEAR FOLLOWUP 

SEX: MALE . .,,,.., 

EVENT: SUDDEN DEATH FROM CORONARY HEART DISEASE 
RISK FACTOR: DIABETES MELLITUS 
PERSONS AT RISK: ALL PERSONS ALIVE 



RISK 

FACTOR 



NO 
YES 



UNKNOMH 
TOTAL 



35-<i<. AT EXAM 
PERSON ♦ OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

<<470 
<<9 




•4519 



',5-S', AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 

EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



55-6'i AT EXAM 
PERSON » OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



65-7'* AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



7812 
255 


2'4 
2 


2 
it 


8'*2'* 
6^6 


54 
6 


3 

5 


4269 
565 


42 

7 


5 
6 



3067 



26 


2 



9070 



60 


3 



<iS3<i 



49 


5 



RISK 
FACTOR 



NO 
YES 



75-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1170 
175 



19 
2 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

44 
6 



35-64 COMBINED 
• OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



65-94 COMBINED 
t OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



61 
9 



I UNKNOHN 
i TOTAL 




1345 




21 




50 




90 




70 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 

COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STB 
SE 


35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 




0.942 

0.374 

0.233 

-0.356 


0.7 39 
0.432 
0.411 
0.748 


0.202 

0.387 
0.57 
0.634 


0.165 

0.096 

0.075 

-0.120 


0.129 
0.111 
0.132 
0.252 


85-94 














35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.759 
0.082 


0.372 
0.359 


0.041 
0.819 


0.155- 
0.027 


0.076 
0.117 


35-64 
65-94 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.390 
0.059 


0.375 
0.360 


0.298 
0.870 


0.080 
0.019 


0.077 
0.117 


35-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.131 
-0.010 


0.388 
0.363 


0.735 
0.978 


0.027 
-0.003 


0.079 
0.118 



SEX: FEMALE 

EVENT: SUDDEN DEATH FROM CORONARY HEART DISEASE 

RISK FACTOR: DIABETES MELLITUS 

PERSONS AT RISKi ALL PERSONS ALIVE 



RISK 
FACTOR 



NO 
YES 



35-44 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

5576 
43 



45-54 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



9859 
213 



55-64 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 

EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1 1497 
606 



14 

1 



65-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON » OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



6499 
604 



20 
8 



UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 




5619 




10072 




12103 




15 




7103 




28 



RISK 
FACTOR 



NO 
YES 



UNKNOHN 
TOTAL 



7 5-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



2106 
313 




2419 



15 
8 




23 



4 
13 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

139 
24 




163 



35-64 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



65-94 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



18 


' 





37 


2 


2 


2 


1 


-1 


16 


9 


8 





^ 




"i 


_ 




20 








S3 


3 


3 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 

SE 


35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 




2.453 

1.470 
1.296 


1 .120 
1 .036 
0.421 
0.442 


0.029 
0.769 
0.001 
0.003 


0.353 
0.066 
0.410 
. 435 


0. 161 
0.226 
0.117 
0.148 


35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


1 .246 
1 .404 


0.746 
0.301 


0.095 
0.001 


0.216 
0.416 


0. 129 
0.039 


35-64 
65-94 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.787 
1 .271 


0.750 
0.304 


0.294 
0.001 


0.136 
0.377 


0. 130 
0.090 


35-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.714 
1 .174 


0.754 
0.313 


0.343 
0.001 


0.124 
0.348 


0.131 
0.093 



205 - 



RISK 
FACTOR 



NO 
YES 



UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



TABLE 10-8 DATE=05JAH86 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
Br AGE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAM! FRAMINGHAM STUDY JO-YEAR FOLLOWUP 

SEX- MALE 

EVENT: SUDDEN DEATH FROM CORONARY HEART DISEASE 
RISK FACTOR: GLUCOSE IN URINE, DEFINITE OR TRACE 
PERSONS AT RISK: ALL PERSONS ALIVE 



35-<i<i AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

<4<i26 
«0 



53 
4519 



<i5-5<i AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



55-64 AT EXAM 
PERSON » OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



65-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



7869 
177 


24 

2 


2 
6 


8786 
260 


59 

1 


3 
2 


4661 
167 


44 

5 


5 
15 


21 
8067 



26 



2 


24 
9070 



60 



3 


6 
4834 



49 




5 



( 



RISK 
FACTOR 



-MO 
YES 



75-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1303 
39 



20 

I 



8 

13 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

49 

1 



35-64 COMBINED 
t OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



87 
3 



65-94 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



64 
6 



5 

14 



5 

14 



UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



3 
1345 




21 




50 




90 




70 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 




1 .318 

-0.560 

1.175 

0.524 


0.740 
1 .010 
0.479 
1 .038 


0.075 

•_ 0.579 

0.014 

0.614 


0. 193 

-0-094 

0.215 

0.088 


0.109 
0.169 
0.087 
0.17« 


85-94 














35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.382 

1.021 


0.589 
0.433 


0.516 
0.018 


0.057- 
0.183 


0.088 
0.078 


35-44 
65-94 


8IVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.207 
1 .052 


0.590 
0.434 


0.7 26 
0.015 


0.031 
0.189 


0.089 
0.078 


35-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


-0.001 
0.983 


0.598 
0.439 


0.999 
0.025 


-0.000 
0.176 


0.090 
0.079 



SEX! FEMALE 

EVENT! SUDDEN DEATH FROM CORONARY HEART DISEASE 
RISK FACTOR: GLUCdSE IN URINE. DEFINITE OR TRACE 
PERSONS AT RISK! ALL PERSONS ALIVE 



35-44 AT EXAM 



RISK 
FACTOR 


PERSON 
EXAMS 


1 OF 
EVENTS 


ANNUAL 
RATE 


PERSON 
EXAMS 


NO 
YES 


5S40 
41 






9947 

101 


UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 


38 
5619 






24 
10072 


RISK 
FACTOR 


75- 
PERSQN 
EXAMS 


84 AT EXAM 

I OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


85 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


NO 
YES 


2375 
35 


22 

1 


5 

14 


160 
J 


UNKNOHM 
TOTAL 


9 
2419 



23 




5 



163 



45-54 AT EXAM 

I OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 



85-94 AT EXAM 

t OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 



55-64 AT EXAM 65-74 AT EXAM 

PERSON « OF ANNUAL PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



11905 
174 



26 
12103 




15 



35-64 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 

19 0~ 
1 2 .2 




20 



LAMS 


EVENTS 


RATE 


6957 
136 


25 
3 


n 


10 
71-03 



28 



2 



65-94 COMBINED 
t OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



S3 



J 
11 



3 
12 



AGE AT 

EXAM 



COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 
P-VALUE 



SE 
COEFFICIENT 



STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 



STD 
SE 



35-44 

45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-34 
85-94 

35-64 
65-94 

35-64 
65-94 



UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 



BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 



35-64 MULTIVARIATE 
65-94 MULTIVARIATE 



3.21J 



I .833 
t .146 



1 .520 
1 .512 



1 .515 
1 .587 



1.217 
1 .552 



0.617 
1 .037 



1 .028 
0.526 



1 .029 
0.528 



1 058 
0.545 



0.005 
0.269 



0.139 
0.004 



0.201 
0.005 



0.241 
0.015 



0.321 



0.251 
0.137 



161 
201 



140 
211 



129 
180 



0^112 



0.085 

o.tz« 



0.109 
0.070 



0.109 
0.070 



O.IIO 
0.072 



C 



- 206 - 



TABLE 10-9 DATE=01MAR86 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
BY AGE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAMi FRAMINGHAM STUDY 30-YEAR FQLLOWUP 

SEX> MALE 

EVENT: SUDDEN DEATH FROM CORONARY HEART DISEASE 

RISK FACTOR' GLUCOSE INTOLERANCE 

PERSONS AT RISK: ALL PERSONS ALIVE 



RISK 

FACTOR 



NO 
YES 



UNKNOHN 
TOTAL 



35-'i'i AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

<<3S1 
Mi 




■4519 



'>5-5<< AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



7528 
5J9 




«0«7 



23 
3 




26 



SS-Sii AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



7973 
1097 




9070 



50 
10 




60 



65-7'i AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



391S 
916 







39 

10 




<i9 



i 



RISK 
FACTOR 



NO 
YES 



UNKNOMN 
TOTAL 



75-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1035 
310 




1315 



16 
5 




21 



85-9"* AT EXAM 35-61 COMBINED 

PERSON I OF ANNUAL » OF AGE- 

EXAMS EVENTS RATE EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



36 
11 



SO 



65-91 COMBINED 
» OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



55 

15 




70 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


55-11 
15-51 
55-61 
65-71 
75-31 
85-91 




0.602 

' 0.377 

0.093 

0.013 


0.615 
0.318 
0.356 
0.516 


0.328 
0.279 
0.793 
0.9iS 


0.150 
0.123 
0.037 
0.018 


0.151 
0.113 
0. 110 
0.218 


35-61 
65-91 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.611 
0.091 


0.301 
0.293 


0.033 
0.719 


0.176 
0.038 


0.083 
0.117 


35-61 
65-91 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.313 
0.018 


0.303 
0.291 


0.259 
0.869 


0.091 
0.019 


0.083 
0.117 


35-61 
65-91 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.185 
-0.002 


0.310 
0.296 


0.551 
0.995 


0.051 
-0.001 


0.085 
0.118 



SEXi FEMALE 

EVENT: SUDDEN DEATH FROM CORONARY HEART DISEASE 

RISK FACTOR: GLUCOSE INTOLERANCE 

PERSONS AT RISK' ALL PERSONS ALIVE 



RISK 
FACTOR 



NO 
YES 



35-11 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

5525 
91 



15-51 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



96S5 
JS7 



55-61 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



10988 
1115 



11 
1 



65-71 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



6066 
1037 



18 
10 



UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 




5619 




10072 




1Z103 




15 




7103 




28 



RISK 
FACTOR 



NO 
YES 



UNKNOHN 
TOTAL 



AGE AT 
EXAM 

35-11 
15-51 
55-61 
65-71 
75-81 
85-91 

35-61 
65-91 

35-61 
65-91 

35-61 
65-91 



75-81 AT EXAM 
PERSON i OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1905 
4J1 


2'»19 



85-91 AT EXAM 
PERSON < OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



11 
9 




23 



35-61 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 



1 .836 

-0.351 

1 .185 

0.878 



UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 



BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 



MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 



602 
059 



112 
931 



0.110 
0.865 



131 
32 


18 
2 



163 



20 


LOGISTIC 


REGRESSIONS 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


1.119 
1 .036 
0.396 
0.130 


0.101 
0.731 
0.003 
0.011 


0.716 
0.288 


0.120 
0.001 


0.719 
0.290 


0.850 
0. 001 


0.750 
0.297 


0.881 
0.001 



65-91 COMBINED 
« OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 



0.353 

-0.102 

0.119 

0.359 



0.110 
0.392 



0.033 
0.315 



0.026 
0.320 



31 
19 





ii 



STD 
SE 



0.215 
0.300 
0.110 
0.176 



0.171 
0.106 



0.171 
0.107 



0. 171 
0.110 



207 



RISK 

FACTOR 

54-10<4 

105-n'i 

115-12<< 
125-1 St 
135-272 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



TABLE 10-10 DATE=05JAN8< 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
BY AGE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAM: FRAMINGHAM STUDY JO-YEAR FOLLOWUP 

SEX: MALE 

EVENT: SUDDEN DEATH FROM CORONARY HEART DISEASE 
RISK FACTOR' METROPOLITAN RELATIVE HEIGHT (PERCENT) 
PERSONS AT RISK: ALL PERSONS ALIVE 



JS-tl AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

723 
979 
1133 
923 
761 • 


'iSI9 



^iS-S"! AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



55-«<i AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



6 5-7« AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 

EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1149 
U35 
2139 
1691 
1452 


2 
5 
9 
4 
6 


1 
2 
2 

t 

2 


1272 
1858 
2467 

1851 
1621 


8 
10 
17 

9 
16 


3 
3 
3 
2 
5 


831 

1052 

1322 

956 

673 


12 

6 

14 

9 

8 


7 
3 
5 
5 
6 


1 
S067 



26 



2 


1 
9070 



60 




3 



4834 



49 


5 



r 



RISK 
FACTOR 

54-104 
105-114 
115-124 
125-134 
135-272 

UNKNOHN 
TOTAL 



75-84 AT EXAM 85-94 AT EXAM 

PERSON » OF ANNUAL PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

19 

15 
14 

2 




50 



277 


6 


11 


557 


7 


10 


399 


4 


5 


196 


1 


3 


1 16 


3 


13 








. 


1345 


21 


8 



35-64 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



65-94 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



11 


2 


2 


18 


8 


8 


15 


2 


2 


13 


5 


4 


28 


2 


2 


13 


5 


5 


14 


2 


2 


10 


4 


4 


22 


3 


3 


11 


7 


7 














- 




90 


2 


2 


70 


6 


6 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 




' 0.005 

0.012 

-0.002 

-0.016 


0.012 
0.008 
0. 009 
0.015 


0.704 
0.112 
0.802 
0.302 


0.073 

0. 196 

-0.036 

-0.235 


0.193 
0.124 
0.144 
0.228 


85-94 










J 




35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.010 
-0,007 


0.006 
O.OOS 


0.125 
0.399 


0. 156 
-0.103 


0.102 
0.122 


35-64 
65-94 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.010 
-0.005 


0.006 
O.OOS 


0.132 
0.570 


0.154 
-0.070 


0.102 
0.123 


35-64 

65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


O.OOS 
-0.012 


0.007 
0.008 


0.205 
0.161 


0.136 
-0.179 


0.107 
0.127 



SEX-- FEMALE 

EVENT: SUDDEN DEATH FROM CORONARY HEART DISEASE 
RISK FACTOR' METROPOLITAN RELATIVE WEIGHT (PERCENT) 
PERSONS AT RISK: ALL PERSONS ALIVE 



RISK 
FACTOR 

54-10<i 
105-114 
1 15-124 
125-134 
135-272 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



55-44 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

1694 
1431 
1059 

566 

861 

8 
5619 



45-54 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



2117 
2364 
2128 
1385 
2080 



55-64 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 




10072 



1 





2140 


1 











2541 


3 


1 








2556 


5 


I 


I 





1831 


1 





3 


1 


3035 


5 


1 





- 








. 


5 





12103 


IS 


1 



65-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON « OF ANNUAL 

EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1319 
1321 
1536 
1140 
1787 


9 
3 

4 
6 
6 


3 
1 
1 
3 
2 



7103 



• 28 


2 



RISK 
FACTOR 

54-104 
105-114 
115-124 
125-134 
135-272 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



AGE AT 
EXAM 

35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
$5-94 

35-64 
65-94 

35-64 
65-94 

35-64 
65-94 



7 5-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



632 

457 
4S7 
342 
501 


2419 



UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 



BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



s 

2 
7 
5 

4 


23 



COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 



35-64 COMBINED 
« OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 



0.021 

0.002 

-0.015 

0.006 



0.011 
-0.009 



0.007 
-0.006 



O.OOS 
-0.006 



51 
33 
31 
26 
22 


2 
3 
5 
2 
8 



163 



20 


LOGISTIC 


REGRESSIONS 


SE 

COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


0.014 
0.011 
0.010 
0.009 


0.131 
0.885 
0.121 
0.475 


0.009 
007 


0.213 
0.187 


0.009 
0,007 


0.429 
0.398 


0.010 
0.007 


0.413 
0.345 



65-94 COMBINED 
» OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 



0.453 

0.036 

-0.344 

0.138 



0.234 
-0.200 



157 
126 



,174 
.140 



1« 
5 

1 1 
11 
10 


S3 



STD 
SE 



0.300 
0.253 
0.222 
0.194 



1SS 
151 



198 
149 



213 
148 



e 



- 208 - 



TABLE 10-11 DATFsO^ lAMX/: 

Sv^?rp^.2!l''I^J,';J''S"^'"=^ "^^^ "" "^'^^ f"" 1"°° PERSONS AT RISK AT kJm 
BY AGE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAMi FRAMINGHAM STUDY 30-YEAR FOLLOWUP 

SEX: MALE 

EVENT: SUDDEN DEATH FROM CORONARY HEART DISEASE 
RISK FACTOR: VITAL CAPACITY - HEIGHT INDEX CML/INCH) 
PERSONS AT RISK: ALL PERSONS ALIVE 



RISK 

FACTOR 

8-44 
45-49 
50-54 
55-59 
60-85 

UNKNOMN 
TOTAL 



35-44 AT EXAM 
PERSON < OF ANNUAL 
E:<AMS EVENTS RATE 

271 

416 

751 
1034 
2034 

13 
4519 



45-54 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



55-64 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



65-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 

EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1 lOS 


1 


■ 


2374 


25 


5 


2179 


1 9 


if 


1 138 


4 


2 


1692 


12 


4 


974 


15 


8 


1726 


3 


2 


2061 


13 


3 


857 


6 


c, 


1823 


7 


2 


1569 


4 


1 


528 


5 


5 


2216 


6 


1 


1356 


6 


2 


284 


4 


7 


6 








18 








12 








8067 


26 


2 


9070 


60 


3 


4834 


49 


5 



RISK 
FACTOR 

8-44 
45-49 
50-54 
55-59 
60-85 

UNKNOMN 
TOTAL 



7 5-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON f OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



853 


13 


8 


228 


2 


4 


142 


2 


7 


81 


4 


25 


a 








8 








1345 


21 


8 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

34 
7 
7 
2 



50 



35-64 COMBINED 
• OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



65-94 COMBINED 
» OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



26 


3 


2 


32 




5 


17 


3 


2 


17 




7 


Z1 


2 


2 


8 




C 


13 


, 1 


1 


9 




9 


1J 


1 


1 


4 




5 




















90 


2 


2 


70 


6 


6 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 




0.006 

-0.030 

0.010 

0.018 


0.022 
0.013 
0.016 
0.024 


0.773 
0.024 
0.516 
0.456 


0.057 

-0.282 

0.094 

0.164 


0. 198 
0.125 
0.145 
0.220 


35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


-0.036 
0.008 


0.010 
0.013 


0.001 
0.508 


-0.344 
0.080 


0.101 
0.121 


35-64 
65-94 


aiVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


-0.015 
0.016 


0.011 
0.013 


0.182 
0.224 


•'0.146 
0.151 


0.109 
0.124 


35-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


-0.006 
0.020 


0.012 
0.013 


0.629 
0.140 


-0.055 
0.188 


0.113 
0.127 



SEXi FEMALE 

EVENT: SUDDEN DEATH FROM CORONARY HEART DISEASE 
RISK FACTOR: VITAL CAPACITY - HEIGHT INDEX (ML/INCH) 
PERSONS AT RISK: ALL PERSONS ALIVE 



35-44 AT EXAM 



RISK 
FACTOR 


PERSON 
EXAMS 


» OF 
EVENTS 


ANNUAL 
RATE 


PERSON 
EXAMS 


4-29 
30-34 
35-39 
40-44 
45-92 


122 

291 

769 

1427 

2989 






546 
1241 
2103 
2838 
3327 


UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 


21 
5619 






17 
10072 


RISK 
FACTOR 


7 5- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


84 AT EXAM 

• OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


35 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


4-29 
30-34 
35-39 
40-44 
45-92 


1212 

686 

37 

123 

26 


10 

10 
3 




4 
7 
4 




109 

37 

16 

1 




UNKNOHN 
TOTAL 


2 
2419 



23 




5 



163 



45-54 AT EXAM 55-64 AT EXAM 65-74 AT EXAM 

I OF ANNUAL PERSON • OF ANNUAL PERSON • OF ANNUAL 

EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



35-94 AT EXAM 

t OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 



1572 
2547 
3213 
2836 
1914 

21 
12103 



5 

3 
4 
2 
1 


15 



35-64 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 





zn 



2068 


14 


3 


1946 


6 


2 


1728 


5 


1 


933 


3 


2 


422 • 








6 








7103 


28 


2 



65-94 COMBINED 
» OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



26 

16 

8 

3 
- 


53 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 

FXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 

COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 




-0.011 
-0.073 
-0.064 
-0.024 


0.060 
0.032 
0.025 
0.029 


0.851 
0.022 
0.0O9 
0.378 


-0.083 
-0.547 
-0.472 
-0.181 


0.444 
0.238 
0. 132 
0.206 


35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


-0.080 
-0.059 


0.026 
0.018 


0.002 
0.001 


-0.635 
-0.447 


0.207 
0.133 


15-64 
65-94 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


-0.048 
-0.041 


0.029 
0.019 


0.098 
0.028 


-0.381 
-0.312 


0.230 
0. 142 


35-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


-0.047 
-0.037 


0.030 
0.020 


0.115 
0.067 


-0.375 
-0.276 


0.238 
0. 151 



209 - 



TABLE10-12 DATE=Q5JANX6 

5y^?ri^.2n'*l^JI;r,"SJ°f!;^'=^ ""^ "" ^"^''^ ''E" """> PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
BY AGE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAM^ FRAMINGHAM STUDY iO-TEAR FOLLOWUP 

SEXi MALE 

EVENTi SUDDEN DEATH FROM CORONARY HEART DISEASE 

RISK FACTOR" HEART RATE (PER MINUTE) 

PERSONS AT RISK: ALL PERSONS ALIVE 



RISK 
FACTOR 

50-67 
68-75 
76-53 

92-220 

UNKNOHN 
TOTAL 



35-14 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

1295 
1506 

728 

586 

<<0'i 


4519 



'i5-5<i AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



2016 
259<i 
147S 
1 I-iS 
839 


8067 



1 
8 
6 
5 
6 


26 



5S-614 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 

EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



2618 
2763 
1552 
1211 
926 


9070 



13 
12 



1 1 
16 




60 



65-7<i AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1«25 

14«7 

802 

607 

553 


'483<i 



10 

9 

10 

14 

6 


'•9 



3 

6 

12 

5 



( 



RISK 

FACTOR 

30-67 
68-75 
76-53 
8'4-91 
92-220 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



PERSON 
EXAMS 

388 
362 
271 
174 
150 


1315 



75-84 AT EXAM 



• OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 



85-94 AT EXAM 



4 
5 

5 
5 

2 


21 



5 

7 

9 

14 

7 



PERSON 
EXAMS 

17 

14 

13 

5 




50 



t OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 



• OF 
EVENTS 

14 
20 
15 
13 
23 


90 



35-64 COMBINED 



ACE- 
ADJUSTED 



65-94 COMBINED 
» OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



14 
14 
15 
19 


70 



4 
4 
7 
12 
6 



4 
4 
7 
12 
6 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VAIUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STO 

• SE 


35-44 














45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 




0.044 
0.029 
0.018 
0.020 


0.013 
0.009 
0.010 
0.015 


0.001 
0.001 
0.067 
0.U7 


0,550 
0.378 
0.240 
0.277 


0.168 
0.113 
0.131 
0.200 


35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.035 
0.0J9 


0.007 
0.008 


0.001 
0.020 


0.449 
0.254 


0.090 
0.109 


35-64 
65-94 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.034 
0.019 


0.007 
0.008 


0.001 

. 022 .. 


0.438 
0.252 


0.089 
0.110 


35-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.027 
0.018 


0.007 
0.003 


0.001 
0.033 


0.342 
0.238 


0.092 
0.111 



SEX> FEMALE 

EVENT: SUDDEN DEATH FROM CORONARY HEART DISEASE 

RISK FACTOR: HEART RATE (PER MINUTE) 

PERSONS AT RISK: ALL PERSONS ALIVE 



RISK 
FACTOR 

30-S7 
68-75 
76-83 

84-91 
92-220 

UNKNOHN 
TOTAL 



35-44 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

1092 
1806 
1051 

939 

731 


5419 



4 5-54 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1918 
3279 
1938 
1620 
1317 




10072 



55-64 AT EXAM 
PERSON « OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 









2450 


2 





2 





3641 


4 


1 








2442 


2 





1 





1888 


6 


2 


2 


1 


1682 


1 








. 








. 


5 





12103 


15 


1 



65-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1285 
1907 
1542 
1196 
1173 



710 



7 
7 
4 
1 
9 

a 

28 



RISK 
FACTOR 

30-67 
68-75 
76-83 
84-91 
92-220 

UNKNOHN 
TOTAL 



7 5-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



459 
586 
532 
410 
432 


2419 



5 

5 

5 
8 


23 



85-94 AT EXAM 35-64 COMBINED 

PERSON « OF ANNUAL I OF AGE- 

EXAMS EVENTS RATE EVENTS CRUDE - AOJUSTEB 

36 
41 

30 
29 
27 


163 



65-94 COMBINED 
« OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE AOJUSTEB 



2 





■ 


13 


4 


4 


6 








12 


2 


2 


2 








4... 


1 


1 


7 


1 


1 


7 


2 


2 


S 








17 


5 


5 





_ 




- 


_ 




20 








S3 


3 


3 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


3S-4<i 
4S-S4 
S5-44 
SS-74 
75-84 
85-94 




0.031 
0,009 
0.005 
0.012 


0.051 
0.019 
0.014 
0.014 


0.329 
0.634 
0.713 
0.596 


0.378 
0.117 
0.048 
0.144 


0.387 
0.245 
0.184 
0.193 


35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.015 
0.007 


0.016 
0.010 


0.366 
0.452 


0. 185 
0.099 


0.204 
0.152 


35-64 
65-94 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.014 
0.007 


0.016 
0.010 


0.384 
0,492 


0.175 
0.090 


0.201 
0.131 


35-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.010 
O.OOO 


0.017 
0.010 


0.555 
0.964 


0.125 
0.006 


0.211 
0.135 



c. 



- 210 



TABLE 10-lS DATE=05JAN86 

.ucD«rc Auuiill TwrmFNCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
BY ACE AnS LEVEL SfR?" FaJtOR AT EXAM: FRAMINGHAM STUDY JO-YEAR FOLLOHUP 

IvENt'^sSdOEN DEATH FROM CORONARY HEART DISEASE 
RISK FACTOR: CIGARETTES SMOKED (NUMBER PER DAY) 
PERSONS AT RISK: ALL PERSONS ALIVE 



RISK 
FACTOR 

NONE 

1-10 
n-20 
Zl-'iO 

<,\-to 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



RISK 
FACTOR 

NONE 

1-10 
11-20 
21-40 
41-90 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



•44 AT EXAM 

t OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 



35' 
PERSON 
EXAMS 

1402 
457 

1499 
99r 
162 

26 
4519 



75-84 AT EXAM 

PERSON » OF ANNUAL 

EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

1067 18 8 

125 2 8 

88 1 6 

60 

5 

0- 

1J45 21 8 



45 
PERSON 
EXAMS 

3ZZ0 

746 

2136 

1672 

255 

33 
2067 



•54 AT EXAM 



• OF 
EVENTS 




26 



ANNUAL 
RATE 

1 
J 
2 
2 
4 


2 



55-64 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



65-74 AT EXAM 



55-94 AT EXAM 



PERSON 
EXAMS 

J8 

6 
5 
1 



50 



I OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 



4888 

856 

1889 

1235 

178 

24 
9070 



27 

7 

16 



a 

60 



• OF 
EVENTS 

51 
13 
Z6. 
1i 

4 


90 



35-64 COMBINED 



PERSON 
EXAMS 

3235 

463 

668 

427 

34 

7 
4834 



CRUDE 

2 
3 

Z 
2 
3 



z 



AGE- 
ADJUSTED 

1 
3 
3 
2 
4 


2 



t OF 
EVENTS 

30 
6 
6 
5 
1 

1 
49 



ANNUAL 
RATE 

5 

6 

4 

6 

15 

71 
5 



65-94 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



48 
8 

7 
5 
1 

1 
70 



6 
7 
5 
5 
13 

71 
6 



5 

7 

5 

5 

11 

55 
6 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 

35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 

35-64 UNIVARIATE 
65-94 UNIVARIATE 



35-64 
65-94 



35-64 
65-94 



COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 



0.019 

0.007 

0.005 

-0.043 



0.006 
-0.004 



BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 

MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 



0.014 
0.001 



0.016 
0.004 



3E 
COEFFICIENT 



0.012 
0.O09 
0.012 
0.043 



007 
Oil 



007 
Oil 



007 
,011 



P-VALUE 



0.115 
0.414 
0.700 
0.309 



418 
,755 



040 
959 



0.021 
0.7 0S' 



STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 



0.280 

0.099 

0.053 

-0.381 



0.083 
-0.039 



0.204 
0.007 



0.231 
0.047 



STD 
SE 



0. 178 
0.122 
0.139 
0.374 



102 

126 



099 
126 



100 
127 



SEX: FEMALE 

EVENT: SUDDEN DEATH FROM CORONARY HEART DISEASE 
RISK FACTOR: CIGARETTES SMOKED (NUMBER PER DAY) 
PERSONS AT RISK: ALL PERSONS ALIVE 



RISK 
FACTOR 

NONE 

1-10 
11-20 
21-40 
41-90 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



35-44 AT EXAM 
PERSON ♦ OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

2583 

1 314 

1373 

298 

22 

29 
5619 



45-54 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



55-64 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



65-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON » OF ANNUAL 

EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



5599 







8010 


9 


1 


5562 


20 


2 


1732 







1646 


4 


1 


680 


2 


1 


2037 







1767 


2 


1 


650 


5 


4 


629 




1 


624 








191 








38 




13 


IS 








1 








37 








38 








19 ■ 


1 


26 


10072 


5 





12103 


IS 


1 


7103 


28 


2 



RISK 
FACTOR 

NONE 

1-10 
11-20 
21-40 
41-90 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



AGE AT 
EXAM 

35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 

35-64 
65-94 

35-64 
65-94 

35-64 
65-94 



75-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON » OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



2139 

161 

99 

16 



4 
2419 



1 
1 




23 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



35-64 COMBINED 
t OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 



0.077 
-0.008 

0.018 
-0.026 



UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 



BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 



MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 



0.019 
0.000 



0.029 
0.014 



0,029 
0.018 



154 
7 
2 




10 



163 


20 


LOGISTIC 


REGRESSIONS 


SE 

COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


0.028 
0.029 
0.021 
0.056 


0.007 
0.791 
0.391 
0.641 


0.020 
0.020 


0.320 
0.981 


0.019 
0.020 


0.122 
0.472 


0.019 
0.020 


0.115 
0.372 



65-94 COMBINED 
t OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED" 



STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 



0.790 
-0.073 

0.1 38 
-0.126 



193 
003 



288 
100 



291 

124 



43 
3 

6 



'- 1 
53 



3 
2 

4 




22 
3 



STD 
SE 



0.293 
0.277 
0.161 
0.27 



0.194 
0. 138 



0.186 
0.139 



0.185 
0.139 



3 

2 

4 

0- 



19 
3 



- 211 - 



RISK 
FACTOR 



NO 
YES 



UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



TABLE 10-14 DATE=0SJAN86 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
Bt AGE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAM ■ FRAMINGHAM STUDY 30-YEAR FOLLOWUP 

SEXi MALE 

EVENT: SUDDEN DEATH FROM CORONARY HEART DISEASE 
RISK FACTOR! ALBUMIN IN URINE, DEFINITE 
PERSONS AT RISK: ALL PERSONS ALIVE 



35-<i<i AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

71 



57 
<<S19 



15-54 AT EXAM 
PERSON » OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



55-64 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



65-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



7936 
105 


25 

1 


2 

5 


8828 
215 


58 
2 


3 

5 


4671 
157 


45 
4 


5 
13 


26 
S067 



26 



2 


27 
9070 



60 



3 


6 
4834 



49 




5 



c 



RISK 
FACTOR 



NO 
YES 



75-84 AT EXAM 85-94 AT EXAM 35-64 COMBINED 

PERSON » OF ANNUAL PERSON t OF ANNUAL • OF AGE- 

EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



1308 
34 



21 





43 

7 



S7 
S 



65-94 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



66 

4 



5 

10 



5 

10 



UNKNOMN 
TOTAL 



3 
1345 




21 




50 




90 




70 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 

COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


35-44 

45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 




1 .113 

0.351 
0.989 


1 .025 
0.723 
0.528 


0.277 
0.628 
0.061 


0.126 
0.053 
0.175 


0.116 
0.110 
0.094 


35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.628 
0.621 


0.539 
0.520 


0.287 
0.232 


0.084 
0.109 


0.079 
0.Q91 


35-64 
65-94 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.441 
0.600 


0.591 
0.521 


0.456 
0.249 


0.059 
0.105 


0.079 
0.091 


35-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.038 
0.340 


0.604 
0.530 


0.950 
0.522 


0.005 
0.060 


0.081 
0.09 J 



sex: FEMALE 

EVENT: SUDDEN DEATH FROM CORONARY HEART DISEASE 
RISK FACTOR: ALBUMIN IN URINE, DEFINITE 
PERSONS AT RISK: ALL PERSONS ALIVE 



c 



RISK 
FACTOR 



NO 
YES 



UNKNOMN 
TOTAL 



35-44 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

5356 
225 



38 
5419 



45- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


54 AT EXAM 

« OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


55- 

PERSON 
EXAMS 


64 AT EXAM 

I OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


65- 

PERSON 
EXAMS 


74 AT EXAM 

t OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


9766 
281 


5 







11835 
240 


14 

1 


1 
2 


6955 
138 


25 

3 


2 
11 


25 
10072 




5 






28 
12103 



15 



1 


10 
7103 



28 



2 



RISK 
FACTOR 



NO 
YES 



UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



75-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



2360 
SO 



9 
2419 



23 






23 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



156 

7 



163 



35-64 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



65-94 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



SO 
3 




53 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 

SE 


35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 




1 ."262 
1 .818 


1 ."037 
0.617 


."224 
0.003 


0."l76 
0.251 


0"l45 
0.085 


35-44 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.643 
1 .080. 


1 .027 
0.599 


0.531 
0.071 


0.104 
0.152 


0.164 
0.084 


35-44 
45-94 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.901 
0.986 


1 .028 
0.602 


0.381 
0.102 


0.146 
0.139 


0.166 
0.085 


35-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.958 
0.598 


1 .040 
0.617 


0.357 
0.33 J 


0.155 
0.084 


0.168 
0.087 



(. 



212 - 



TABLE 10-15 DATE=05JAN«6 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
BY AGE AND LEVEL Of RISK FACTOR AT EXAM' FRAMINGHAM STUDY JO-YEAR FOLLOWUP 

SEX: MALE 

EVENT: SUDDEN DEATH FROM CORONARY HEART DISEASE 
RISK FACTOR: HEART ENLARGEMENT BY X-RAY 
PERSONS AT RISK: ALL PERSONS ALIVE 



RISK 
FACTOR 

NO 

MILD 

DEFINITE 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



35-^'* AT EXAM "iS-S". AT EXAM 

PERSON « OF ANNUAL PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



4101 
189 
22<t 



• 5 
4519 



55-«<» AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



65-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON f OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



6615 
708 
742 


17 
2 

7 


1 
1 
5 


6543 
1 126 
1400 


31 

6 

23 


2 

3 
i 


3075 

703 

1056 


21 

5 

23 


3 

4 
11 


4 
8067 



26 



2 


1 
9070 



60 


a 

3 



4834 



49 


5 



RISK 
FACTOR 

NO 

MILD 
DEFINITE 

'UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



7 5-84 AT EXAM 85-94 AT EXAM 

PERSON » OF ANNUAL PERSON I OF ANNUAL 

EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



753 
226 
366 


1345 



9 6 

4 9 

8 11 



21 8 



34 

6 

10 


50 



35-64 COMBINED 
t OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



51 

i 

St 

a 

90 



65-94 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



30 

9 

31 


70 



4 

5 

11 



4 

5 

1 1 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 




0.625 
0.617 
0.590 
0.308 


0.231 
0.143 
0.157 
0.243 


0.007 
0.001 
0.001 
0.205 


0.386 

0.460 
0.487 
0.267 


0.143 
0.106 
0.130 
0.21 


85-94 














35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.736 
0.520 


0.117 
0.132 


0.001 
0.001 


0.485 
0.434 


0.077 
0.110 


35-64 
65-94 


SIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.597 
0.498 


0.120 
0.132 


0.001 
0.001 


0.393 
0.416 


0.079 
0.111 


35-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.539 
0.377 


0.130 
0.143 


0.001 

o.oos 


0.355 
0.315 


0.085 
0.120 



SEX: FEMALE 

EVENT: SUDDEN DEATH FROM CORONARY HEART DISEASE 
RISK FACTOR: HEART ENLARGEMENT BY X-RAY 
PERSONS AT RISK: ALL PERSONS ALIVE 



RISK 
FACTOR 

NO 

MILD 

DEFINITE 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



35-44 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

5166 
199 
246 

8 

5619 



45-54 AT EXAM 
PERSON » OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



8085 

959 

1022 

6 
10072 



55-64 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



7836 
1379 
2384 

4 
12103 



5 
3 
7 


15 



65-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

3511 6 1 

1293 6 2 

2299 16 3 




7103 




28 



RISK 
FACTOR 

NO 

MUD 

DEFINITE 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



AGE AT 
EXAM 

35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 



75-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



830 

455 

1154 


2419 



35-64 
65-94 



35-64 
65-94 



UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 



BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1 1 

4 4 

18 8 



23 5 



COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 



0.538 
0.760 
0.675 
1 .055 



35-64 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



0.878 
0.810 



0.634 
0.720 



35-64 MULTIVARIATE 
65-94 MULTIVARIATE 



40 
36 
87 


8 

a 



163 


zo 


LOGISTIC 


REGRESSIONS 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


0.531 
0.288 
0.226 
0.359 


0.311 
0.008 
0.003 
0.003 


0.242 
0.180 


0.001 
0.001 


0.251 
0.182 


0.01 1 
0.001 


0.260 
0.188 


0.007 
0.001 



65-94 COMBINED 
f OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



8 

10 
35 


53 



STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 



0.346 
0.608 
0.600 
0.942 



.619 
.728 



447 
647 



498 
575 



STD 
SE 



0.341 
0.231 
0.201 
0.320 



171 
162 



177 
164 



184 
169 



- 213 - 



RISK 
FACTOR 

NO 

MILD 
DEFINITE 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



TABLE 10-16 DATE=05JAN86 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
BY AGE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAMi FRAMINGHAM STUDY 30-YEAR FOLLOWUP 

SEX: MALE 

EVENT: SUDDEN DEATH FROM CORONARY HEART DISEASE 

RISK FACTOR: LEFT VENTRICULAR HYPERTROPHY BY ELECTROCARDIOGRAM 

PERSONS AT RISK: ALL PERSONS ALIVE 



i5-<,<, AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

4<iOS 
79 
32 


<iS19 



45-54 AT EXAM 55-64 AT EXAM 

PERSON t OF ANNUAL PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



6 5-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



7S12 
147 
108 


24 

t 
I 


2 

J 
S 


8611 
240 
219 


45 

3 

12 


3 

6 

27 


4527 
121 
186 


36 
4 
9 


4 
17 
24 



8067 



26 


2 



9070 



60 


5 



4834 



49 


5 



( 



RISK 
FACTOR 

NO 

MILD 

DEFINITE 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



75-8"* AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1250 
44 
51 


1345 



20 

1 


21 



8 


10 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

45 
2 
3 


SO 



35-64 COMBINED 
t OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



65-94 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



73 


2 


2 


56 


5 


5 


4 


4 


4 


4 


12 


13 


13 


18 


13 


10 


21 


21 





- 







- 




90 


2 


2 


70 


6 


6 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 

35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 

35-64 UNIVARIATE 
65-94 UNIVARIATE 



35-64 
65-94 



BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 



35-64 MULTIVARIATE 
65-94 MULTIVARIATE 



COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


■ STD 
SE 


0.596 

1.184 

0.955 

-0.084 


0.457 
0.166 
0.182 
0.565 


0. 192 
0.001 
0, 001 
0.882 


0.157 

0.406 

0.392 

-0.035 


0. 121 
0.057 
0.075 
0.235 


1 .165 
0.762 


0.151 
0.169 


0.001 
0.001 


0.339 . 
0.314 


0.044 
0.070 


1 .030 
0.759 


0.153 
0.169 


0.001 
0.001 


0.300 
0.313 


■ 0.045 
0.070 


1.093 
0.584 


0.172 

0.189 


S.OO) 
0.002 


0.318 
0.241 


0.050 
0.078 



SEX: FEMALE 

EVENT: SUDDEN DEATH FROM CORONARY HEART DISEASE 

RISK FACTOR: LEFT VENTRICULAR HYPERTROPHY BY ELECTROCARDIOGRAM 

PERSONS AT RISK: ALL PERSONS ALIVE 



3S-44 AT EXAM 
RISK PERSON » OF ANNUAL 
FACTOR EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



45-54 AT EXAM 
PERSON « OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



55-64 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



65-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



NO 

MILD 
DEFINITE 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



5566 
38 
15 


5619 



9905 

11 1- 

56 


10072 



11679 
250 
174 


12103 



15 




15 



6686 
182 
235 


7101 



22 
3 

3 


28 



I RISK 
I FACTOR 

: NO 
MILD 
DEFINITE 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



AGE AT 
EXAM 

35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 

35-64 
65-94 

35-64 
65-94 

35-64 
65-94 



75-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON .1 OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



2217 

77 

125 


2419 



UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 



BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 



18 
2 

3 


23 



4 
13 
12 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



35-64 COMBINED 
♦ OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 



0.787 
0.605 



MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 



0.632 



0.492 



142 
10 
11 


20 





163 



20 


LOGISTIC 


REGRESSIONS 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 



0.272 
0.291 



0.198 
0.200 
0.212 



0.004 
0.038 



0.001 
0.002 
0.020 



65-94 COMBINED 
« OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



42 
5 



r 

53 



STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 



0.304 
0.284 



0.292 
0.261 
0.203 



STD 
SE 



o.ios 

0.137 



0.082 
0.082 
0.087 



c 



-'214 



TABLE 10-17 DATE=05JAN84 

AVERAGE ANNUAL -INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
BY AGE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAM- FRAMINGHAM STUDY 30-YEAR FOLLOHUP 

EVENT! SUDDEN DEATH FROM CORONARY HEART DISEASE 

RISK FACTOR: INTRAVENTRICULAR CONDUCTION DEFECT (NITH SRS INTERVAL MORE THAN 0.11 SECOND) 

PERSONS AT RISK; ALL PERSONS ALIVE 



RISK 
FACTOR 

NO 

INCOMPLETE 

COMPLETE 

UNKNOHN 
TOTAL 



PERSON 
EXAMS 

it201 

2S0 

18 


■4519 



SS-^i* AT EXAM 



I OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 



45-5^ AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



7'i87 

'.91 

89 


8067 



22 
1 
5 


26 



1 

1 

17 



PERSON 
EXAMS 

8247 

282 


9070 



5S-6'i AT EXAM 



< OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 



52 

5 
3 


60 



PERSON 
EXAMS 

4323 
250 
261 


48J4 



65-74 AT EXAM 



I OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 



37 




49 



4 

3 

15 



RISK 
FACTOR 

NO 

INCOMPLETE 
COMPLETE 

UNKNOHN 
TOTAL 



PERSON 
EXAMS 

1180 

37 

128 


1345 



7 5-84 AT EXAM 



• OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 



19 

2 


21 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON « OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

41 
3 
6 


50 



I OF 
EVENTS 

78 
6 

6 


90 



35-64 COMBINED 



CRUDE 

2 

Z 
7 



AGE- 
ADJUSTED 

2 
2 
9 



65-94 COMBINED 



t OF 
EVENTS 

. 56 

4 

10 


70 



CRUDE 

5 

7 
13 



AGE- 
ADJUSTED 

5 

6 

14 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


45-54 
55-64 
6-5-74 
75-84 




0.976 

0.295 

0.648 

-0.082 


0.345 
0.256 
0.192 
0.389 


0.005 
0.249 
0.001 
0.833 


0.306 

0.121 

0.319 

-0.049 


0.108 
0. 105 
0.095 
0.234 


85-94 














35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.546 ' 
0.455 


0.206 
0.170 


0.008 
0.008 


0.194 
0.236 ■ 


0.073 
0.089 


J5-64 
65-94 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.415 
0.416 


0.203 
* 0.171 


0.041 
0.015 


0.148 
0.216 


0.072 
0.089 


35-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.389 
0.4J1 


0.211 
0.173 


0.066 
0.013 


0.138 
0.224 


0.075 
0.090 



SEX: FEMALE 

EVENT.- SUDDEN DEATH FROM CORONARY HEART DISEASE 

RISK FACTOR: INTRAVENTRICULAR CONDUCTION DEFECT (WITH 9RS INTERVAL MORE THAN 0.11 SECOND) 

PERSONS AT RISK" ALL PERSONS ALIVE 



35-44 AT EXAM 



RISK 
FACTOR 


PERSON 
EXAMS 


« OF 
EVENTS 


ANNUAL 
RATE 


PERSON 
EXAMS 


NO 

INCOMPLETE 

COMPLETE 


5532 

75 
12 






9873 

151 

48 


UNKNOHN 
TOTAL 



5619 







10072 


RISK 
FACTOR 


75- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


84 AT EXAM 

» OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


35 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


NO 

INCOMPLETE 
COMPLETE 


2261 

51 
107 


19 


4 


4 



19 


153 
3 

7 


UNKNOHN 
TOTAL 


2419 



23 


5 



163 



45-54 AT EXAM 

t OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 

5 





5 



35-94 AT EXAM 

I OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 



55-64 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



11731 
195 
177 


12103 



14 


1 


15 



6 5-74 AT EX-AM 
PERSON » OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



35-64 COMBINED 
• OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



19 


1 


20 



6794 
134 
175 


71J)3 



23 

5 


28 



2 



14 



65-94 COMBINED 
• OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



44 

9 

-(I 
53 



2 


15 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 




0.662 

1 .026 
0.714 • 


0.552 
0.259 
0.288 


0.231 

0.001 
0.013 


0.178 
0.344 
0.308 


0.149 
0.087 
0.IZ4 


35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.729 
0.898 


0.560 
0.192 


0.193 

0.001 


0.160 
0.327 


0.123 
0.070 


35-64 
45-94 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.501 
0.823 


0.555 
0.193 


0.366 
0.001 


. ri 

0.30O 


0.122 
C.070 


35-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.537 
0.794 


0.554 
0.196 


0.333 
0.001 


0.118 
0.289 


0.122 
0.071 



- 215 - 



RISK 
FACTOR 



NO 
YES 



UNKNOMN 
TOTAL 



TABLE 10-ia DATE=05JAN86 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
BY AGE ANC LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAMi FRAMINGHAM STUDY iO-YEAR FOLLOHUP 

SEX' MALE 

EVENTi SUDDEN DEATH FROM CORONARY HEART DISEASE 

RISK FACTOR: DEFINITE NONSPECIFIC T-WAVE OR ST-SEGMENT ABNORMALITY BY ELECTROCARDIOGRAM 

PERSONS AT RISK: ALL PERSONS ALIVE 



JS-I^ AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

1 IS 




^519 



"iS-S* AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



55-«<i AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



65-7<i AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



( 



7641 
<<26 


21 

S 


1 
6 


S2'46 
82<i 


46 


3 
8 


<i170 
664 


35 


4 
1 1 



8067 



26 


2 



9070 



60 


J 






49 


5 



RISK 
FACTOR 



NO 
YES 



75-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1063 
282 



15 
6 



7 
11 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON i OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

31 
19 



35-64 COMBINED 
i OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



71 
19 



65-94 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



50 
20 



5 
10 



5 

10 



UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



a 

1345 




21 




50 



a 

90 




70 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



ACE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUe 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE" 


35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 




1 .461 
1 .125 
0.934 
0.418 


0.500 
0.307 
0.319 
0.488 


0.003 
0.001 
0.003 
0.392 


0.327 
0,323 
0.322 
0.170 


0.112 
0.088 
0.110 
0.199 


35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 

UNIVARIATE 


1.393 
0.792 


0.260 
0.267 


0.001 
0.003 


0.338 
0.286 


0.043 
0.097 


35-64 
65-94 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


I .121 
0.723 


0.263 
0.269 


0.001 
0.007 


0.272 
0.262 


0.044 
0-097 


35-64 
45-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0,928 
0.725 


0.264 

0.274 * 


0.001 
0.008 


0.225 
0.242 


0.065 
0.099 



SEX I FEMALE 

EVENT: SUDDEN DEATH FROM CORONARY HEART DISEASE 

RISK FACTOR: DEFINITE NONSPECIFIC T-WAVE OR ST-SEGMENT ABNORMALITY BY ELECTROCARDIOGRAM 

PERSONS AT RISK: ALL PERSONS ALIVE 



RISK 
FACTOR 



NO 
YES 



UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



RISK 
FACTOR 



NO 
YES 



UNKNOMN 
TOTAL 



AGE AT 
EXAM 

35-44 
45-54 
55-64 

45-74 
75-84 
85-94 

35-64 
65-94 

35-64 
65-94 

35-64 
45-94 



35-44 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

5520 
99 




5419 



75-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON I .OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



45-54 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



55-64 AT' EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



65-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON ■ t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



9442 
4S0 




10072 



11111 
992 




12103 



12 
3 




15 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1945 
474 




2419 



18 
5 




23 



COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 



1 .726 
1 .032 
1 .300 
0.132 



UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 



BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 



MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 



445 
81 1 



.055 
.449 



082 
640 



124 
39 


1i 

4 



143 


« 
20 


LOGISTIC 


REGRESSIONS 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VAIUE 


1.119 
0.646 
396 
0.508 


0.123 

0.110 
0.001 
0.795 


0.540 
0.304 


0.009 
0.008 


564 
0.309 


0.041 
0.030 


0.569 
0.311 


0.057 
0.040 



35-44 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE AOJl 

- 
I 





4143 
940 


18 
10 


1 

5 





7103 



28 


2 


STE 


45- 
• OF 

D EVENTS 


94 COMBINED 

.'GE- 
CRUOE ADJUSTED 




1 


38 
15 


2 
5 


2 

5 






53 - 


3 


3. 



STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 



0.349 

0.233 
0.441 
0.052 



STD 
SE 



0.224 
0.177 
0.134 
0.202 



333 
289 



240 
239 



0.246 
0.229 



127 
109 



128 
1 10 



129 
til 



216 - 



TABLE U-1 nATE-12A?R8 5 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
BY AGE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAM: FRAMINGHAM STUDY 30-YEAR FOLLOHUP 

SEXt MALE 

EVENTi CORONARY HEART DISEASE DEATH 

RISK FACTOR! SYSTOLIC BLOOD PRESSURE. FIRST EXAMINER (MM HG) 

PERSONS AT RISK! PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



35-44 AT EXAM 
RISK PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
FACTOR EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



4 5-54 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
eXAHS EVENTS RATE 



55-64 AT EXAM 65-74 AT EXAM 

PERSON I OF ANNUAL PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



74-1 19 
120-139 
140-159 
160- 179 
180-300 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



RISK 
FACTOR 



1223 

2165 

84 1 

19 1 

52 


4472 



75-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1769 

3417 

1732 

567 

239 


7724 



3 
12 
6 
4 
3 


28 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 

EXAMS EVENTS RATF. 



1440 

3166 

2090 

9 16 

437 


8049 



4 

20 
18 
10 




60 



548 
1341 
1194 
552 
278 


3913 



2 
14 
15 
12 
1 1 


54 



2 
5 
6 

1 I 
20 



35-64 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



65-94 COMBINED 
I OF ACE- 

EVEHTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



74- 1 19 
120-139 
140-159 
160- 179 
130-300 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



120 


3 


13 


345 


5 


7 


315 


6 


10 


153 


5 


16 


84 


4 


24 








_ 


1017 


23 


1 1 



7 
15 




39 



9 


1 


t 


5 




4 


35 


2 


2 


19 




5 


24 


i 


2 


21 




7 


14 


4 


4 


19 


13 


14 


11 


S 


6 


15 


21 


21 





. 







_ 




93 


2 


3 


79 


8 


! 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAH 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 




-0.044 
0.023 
0.020 
0.022 
0.012 


0.0J4 , 

0.008 

0.005 

0.005 

0.009 


0. 189 
0.003 
0.001 
0.001 
0. 183 


-0.743 
0.450 
0.446 
0.495 
0.263 


0.56 5 
0. 149 
0. 103 
. 0.110 
0. 198 


35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.023 , 
0.020 


0.004 
0.004 


O.0O1 
0.001 


0.473 
0.446 


0.079 
0.095 


35-64 
65-94 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.019 
0.020 


0.004 
0.004 


0.001 
0.001 


0.384 
■ 0.457 


0.08 1 
0.097 


35-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.016 
0.016 


0.004 
0.005 


0.001 
0.001 


0.332 
0.356 


0.089 
0. 103 



SEX: FEMALE 

EVENT: CORONARY HEART DISEASE DEATH 

RISK FACTOR: SYSTOLIC BLOOD PRESSURE. FIRST EXAMINER (MM HG> 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



35-44 AT EXAM 
RISK PERSON i OF ANNUAL 
FACTOR EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



45-54 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



55-64 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



65-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



74-119 
120-139 
140-159 
160-179 
180-300 

JNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



RISK 
FACTOR 



2493 
2244 

673 

156 
50 


56 16 

7 5-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



2714 

3982 

2053 

768 

442 



9959 





10 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1979 
4056 
3025 
1560 
893 


3 
4 
12 
6 
6 


1 

2 
2 
3 



1513 



31 


1 



35-64 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUSE ADJUSTED 



647 
1747 
2013 
1155 

686 


1 
10 
13 

6 
12 





6248 



42 


3 



65-94 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



74-1 19 
120-139 
140-159 
160-179 
180-300 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



AGE AT 
EXAM 

35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 

35-64 
65-94 

35-64 
65-94 



133 








465 


6 


6 


626 


4 


3 


451 


1 1 


12 


276 


9 


16 








_ 


1951 


30 


8 



UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 



BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 



COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 



0.017 
0.017 
0.018 
0.016 



i55-64 MULTIVARIATE 
65-94 MULTIVARIATE 



0.022 
0.017 



0.017 
0.016 



0.013 
0.012 



8 

38 

29 
31 
17 


4 
8 
17 
i 
8 



123 



43 


LOGISTIC 


REGRESSIONS 


SE 

COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


0.010 
0.006 
0.006 
0.006 


0.078 
0.003 
0.001 
0.016 


0.004 
0.004 


0.00 1 
0.001 


b.OOS 
0.004 


0.001 
.001 


b.006 
0. 004 


0.019 
0.005 



STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 



a ..39« 

0.421 
0.431 
0.388 



0.S1S 
0.414 



0.399 
0.383 



0.305 
0.303 



18 
18 
18 
21 


76 



STO 
SE 



0.225 
0. 142 

0. 134 
0. 16 1 



104 
100 



1 16 

102 



130 
107 



I 
4 
3 
5 

1 1 



- 217 



RISK 
FACTOR 



TABLE 11-2 DATE=12APR8 5 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
BY AGE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAM: FRAHINGHAH STUDY 30-YEAR FOLLOWUP 

SEXi MALE 

EVENTi CORONARY HEART DISEASE DEATH 

RISK FACTORi DIASTOLIC BLOOD PRESSURE, FIRST EXAMINER CMM HO) 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



35-'i<i AT EXAM tti'S'i AT EXAM 55-61 AT EXAM 

PERSON » OF ANNUAL PERSON • OF ANNUAL PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



65-71 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
E:£AMS EVENTS RATE 



( 



20-71 
75-S1 
85-91 
95-101 
105-160 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



1012 

1601 

I 157 

199 

170 


1172 



1175 


5 


1 


2766 


9 


2 


2062 


7 


2 


1008 


5 


2 


110 


1 


5 








_ 


7721 


25 


2 



1517 

2515 

1961 

952 

1 I 1 


5019 



12 
II 
19 
10 
5 


60 



1225 


I 1 


1 


1J2i 


11 


5 


593 


13 


7 


311 


I 1 


16 


129 


5 


19 








_ 


3913 


51 


7 



75-51 AT EXAM 
RISK PERSON • OF ANNUAL 

FACTOR EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



S5-91 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 

EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



35-61 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



65-91 COMBINED 
• OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



20-71 
75-81 
85-91 
95-101 
105-160 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



122 


5 


9 


331 


7 


1 1 


201 


5 


12 


11 


2 


23 


16 


1 


31 








- 


1017 


23 


tl 



22 

12 

5 






39 



15 


2 


2 


20 


6 


5 


27 


2 


2 


21 


6 


6 


27 


J 


3 


19 


9 


9 


IS 


3 


3 


13 


17 


17 


9 . 


5 


1 


6 


21 


21 





_ 







. 




95 


2 


3 


79 


5 


8 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AOE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


35-11 
15-51 
55-61 
65-71 
75-81 
55-91 




-0.02t 
0.037 
0.021 
0.031 
0.007 


0.012 

0,011 
0.010 
0.0 10 
0.018 


0.6 15 
0.010 
0.0 16 
0.001 
0,707 


-0.257 
0.127 
0.285 
0.112 
0.079 


0.170 
0. 166 
0. 1 18 
0. 1 19 
0.209 


35-61 
65-91 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.027 . 
0.021 


0.005 
0.009 


O.OOI 
001 


0.313 
0.296 


0.091 
0. 101 


55-61 
65-91 


flIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.026 
0.030 


0.008 
0.009 


0,001 

o.qoi 


0.308 
369 


0.092 
0.''10< 


35-61 

65-91 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.021 
0.021 


0.008 
0.009 


0.010 
0.006 


0.218 
0.295 


0.096 
0. 107 



SEX: FEMALE 

EVENT: CORONARY HEART DISEASE DEATH 

RISK FACTOR: DIASTOLIC BLOOD PRESSURE, FIRST EXAMINER (MM HG) 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



35-1* AT EXAM 
RISK PERSON I OF ANNUA!. 
FACTOR EXArtS EVENTS RATE 



15-51 AT EXAM 
PERSON < OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



55-61 AT EXAH 6S-7« AT EXAM 

PERSON « OF ANNUAL PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE UAn% EVENTS RATE 



( 



20-71 
75-51 
55-91 
95-101 
105-160 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



2161 

2030 

987 

321 

1 I 1 


5616 



2639 

3511 

23«l 

926 

192 


1 
1 
3 

1 
1 




1 
1 
1 
1 


2969 
3853 
2510 
1272 
579 


7 
1 
1 1 

5 
1 


1 
1 

2 
2 
3 


1831 

2155 

1139 

600 

213 


1 1 
16 
7 
1 
1 


5 

1 
2 
3 
5 



99S9 



10 


1 



1 1513 



31 


1 



6218 



12 


3 



RISK 
FACTOR 



7 5-81 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



85-91 AT EXAM 
PERSON « OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



S5-61 COMBINED 
t OF ACE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



65-91 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



28-71 
75-81 
85-91 
95-101 
105-160 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



AGE AT 
EXAM 

35-11 
15-51 
S5-61 
65-71 
75-51 
8S-9* 

35-61 
65-91 

35-61 
65-91 

35-61 
65-91 



724 


1 1 


8 


596 


5 


7 


113 


7 


8 


116 


3 


10 


12 


1 


12 








. 


1951 


30 


8 



COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 



UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 



BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 



MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 



028 
030 
012 
009 



032 
001 



028 
008 



021 
006 



53 

13 

20 

7 




9 
8 
11 

7 
5 



123 



13 


LOGISTIC 


REGRESSIONS 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


0.022 
0.013 
0.0 12 
0.015 


0.202 
0.017 
0.328 
0.519 


0.010 
0.009 


O.OOZ 
g.612 


0.011 
0.009 


0.012 
0.366 


O.on 
0.009 


0.061 
0.537 



STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 








512 
575 
116 
108 






592 
055 






556 
105 






258 
070 



25 

25 

11 

7 

5 


76 



STB 
SE 



0.268 
0, 157 
0. 119 
0. 180 



0. 128 
0. 1 11 



0. 151 
0. Ill 



0. 110 
0. 1 11 



c 



218 



TABLE 11-3A DATE=30AUC35 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
»- .^^ .>,„ , ,-.,^. „^ „.,„ ., , FRAMINGHAM STUDY 30-YEAR FOLLQWUP 



BY AGE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAMi 



SEX' HALE 

EVENT; COROKASY HEART DISEASE DEATH 

RISK FACTOR I HYPERTENSION '.JITH ANTIHYPERTENSIVE TREATVENT 

PERSONS AT RISK! PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 
FACTOR 

NO 
BORDER 

DEFINITE 
TREATED 

UNKNOHN 
TOTAL 



35-44 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF AHIIUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



2651 

1301 
500 

?o 


<i<i72 



3 1 

2 I 







5 1 



'<5-54 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



4 122 

2205 

1 139 

2SS 


7724 



10 
7 
9 
2 



28 



55-64 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



3782 

2299 

1266 

702 


8049 



15 

23 

14 

8 


60 



65-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1516 


3 


3 


1252 


13 


5 


552 


13 


12 


593 


20 


17 








_ 


3913 


54 


7 



75-84 AT EXAM 
RISK PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
FACTOR EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



35-64 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



65-94 COMBINED 
• OF ACE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



NO 

BORDER 

DEFINITE 

TREATED 

UNKNOHN 
TOTAL 



373 
333 

123 
188 


1017 



7 
7 
3 
6 


23 



9 
1 1 
12 
16 



18 

1 1 
3 

7 


39 



28 


1 


1 


15 


4 


4 


32 


i 


3 


20 


6 


6 


Z3 


4 


4 


17 


13 


13 


10 


5 


4 


27 


17 


17 


a 


_ 







_ 




9J 


Z 


3 


79 


3 


3 



AOE AT 
EXAN 

35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
J5-94 

35-64 
65-94 

35-44 
65-94 

3S-64 
65-94 



UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 



BIVARIATE 
tlVARIATE 



MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 



COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


-(J.283 

C.596 
0.497 
0.900 
0.226 


0.716 
0.229 
0. 156 
0.191 
0.259 


0.581 
0.716 


0. 126 
0. ISO 


0:476 
0.713 


0. l26 
0. 150 


0.414 
0.629 


0. 132 
0. 1fi3 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 
P-VALUE 



0.692 
0.009 
0.001 
0.001 
0.382 



001 
00 1 



00 1 
00 1 



002 
001 



STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 



197 
458 
405 
738 
185 



0.452 
0.586 



0.370 
0.584 



0.322 
0.515 



STD 
SE 

0.497 
0. 176 
0. 127 
0. 156 
0.212 



0.098 
0. 123 



0.098 
0. 123 



0. 103 
0. 126 



SEX I FEMALE 

EVENT' CORONARY HEART DISEASE DEATH 

RISK FACTOR' HYPERTENSION VITH A.VTTHvi'rRxrvsi"'^ TS''l.T^"^NT 

PERSONS AT RISK' PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 
FACTOR 

NO 

BORDER 

DEFINITE 

TREATED 

UNKNOMH 
TOTAL 



35-44 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

4250 

1001 

3 16 

49 


5616 



•45- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 

5622 

2579 

1 166 

592 


9959 



54 AT EXAM 

I OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 



3 
3 
1 
3 


10 



55-64 AT EXAM 65-74 AT EXAM 

PERSON I OF ANNUAL PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



4888 
3282 
1835 
1508 


11513 



6 1 

13 2 

9 2 

3 I 



31 1 



1767 
1903 
1035 

1543 

0- 
6248 



8 2 

10 3 

7 3 

17 6 



42 3 



75-84 AT EXAM 
RISK PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
FACTOR EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



8 5-9'* AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



35-64 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUOE AOJltSTED 



65-94 COMBINED 
« OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



NO 

BORDER 
DEFINITE 
TREATED 

UNKNOHN 
TOTAL 



402 
575 
37 1 
603 


1951 



3 
6 

10 
1 1 


30 



4 
5 

13 
9 



31 
28 
21 
43 


123 



to 





• 


13 


3 


5 


16 


1 


t 


17 


3 


4 


1 1 


2 


1 


18- 


6 


6 


6 




2 


28 


6 


7 





_ 




. 


. 




43 


1 


1 


76 


5 


4 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


35-44 
45-51 
55-64 
65-74 
75-34 
85-94 




0.724 
0.467 
0.398 
0.597 


0.378 
0.218 
0.203 
0.235 


0.055 
0.032 
0.050 
0.036 


0.556 
0.390 
0.327 
0.470 


0.290 
0. 182 
0. 167 
0.225 


35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.725 
0.433 


0. 132 
0. 156 


0.001 
0.005 


0.575 
0.354 


0. 144 
0. 127 


35-64 
65-94 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.495 
0.330 


0. 187 
0. 156 


0.008 
0.0 15 


0.393 
0.311 


0. 149 
0. 128 


35-44 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0. 367 
0.270 


0. 194 
0. 159 


0.059 
0.090 


0.29 1 
0.221 


0. 154 
0. 130 



-219 



TABLE 1t-3B DATE=21N0V«S 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
BY AGE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAM: FRAMIHGHAM STUDY 30-YEAR FOLLQWUP 



SEXi MALE 

EVENT: CORONARY HEART DISEASE DEATH 

RISK FACTOR: HYPERTENSION IGNORING TREATMENT 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 
FACTOR 


35- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


4* AT EXAM 

1 OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


iS- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


5<i AT EXAM 

t OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


55- 

PERSON 
EXAMS 


6'i AT EXAM 

t OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


65- 

PERSOM 
EXAMS 


7<i AT EXAM 

« OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


NO 

MILD 
DEFINITE 


2653 

1310 

509 


3 
2 



1 
1 



«I5<4 
22814 
1286 


10 
3 

10 


1 
2 
:» 


3909 
2583 
1557 


17 
26 
17 


2 
5 
5 


1631 

1 499 

783 


1 1 
21 
22 


3 

7 
1« 


UNKNOHN 
TOTAL 



141*72 




5 


1 



772'i 



25 


2 



80<49 



60 


<4 



3913 



51 


7 



( 



75-84 AT EXAM 
RISK PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
FACTOR EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



NO 

HUD 

DEFINITE 

UNKNOHN 
TOTAL 



412 
<t<S 
187 


1017 



8 

7 
8 


23 



10 
8 

Z1 



II 



85-9"* AT EXAM 3S-6« COMBINED 

PERSON • OF ANNUAL I OF AGE- 

EXAMS EVENTS RATE EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



21 

15 

i 


39 



30 
3< 
27 


9S 



65-9<i COMBINED 
« OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



19 
29 
31 


79 



5 

8 

16 



5 

7 

17 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 

COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIEMT 


STD 
SE 


35-44 
45-54 

55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 




-0.279 
0.589 
0.464 
0.722 
0.405 


0.718 
0.232 

0.160 
0.181 
0.230 


0.698 
0.011 
0.004 
0.001 
0.148 


-0.193 
0.443 

0.358 
0.545 
0.298 


0.496 
0.174 
0.123 
0.137 
0.206 


35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.535 
0.645 


0.128 
0.149 


0.001 
0.001 


0.401 
0.484 


0.096 
0.112 


35-64 
65-94 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.460 
0.661 ' 


0.129 

0.150 


0.001 
0.001 


0.345 
0.496 


0.097 
0.113 


35-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.38O' 
0.525 


0.135 
0.150 


0.005 
0.001 


0.285 
0.394 


0.101 
0.112 



SEX" FEMALE 

EVENT" CORONARY HEART DISEASE DEATH 

RISK FACTOR! HYPERTENSION IGNORING TREATMENT 

PERSONS AT RISK' PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



risK 

'ACTOR 

10 

IILD 
lErlNlTE 

INKNOWN 
lOTAL 



35-44 AT EXAM 45-54 AT EXAM 

PERSON 8 OF ANNUAL PERSON « OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



4272 

1016 

328 


5616 



5804 
2763 
1392 



3 

5 
2 


10 



55-64 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



5245 
3860 
2408 


11513 



6 1 

15 2 

10 2 



51 1 



65- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 

2035 
2549 
1664 


6248 



74 AT EXAM 

t OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 



9 
16 
17 


42 



IISK 
'ACTOR 

10 

IILD 

lEFlNITE 

INKNOHN 
OTAL 



GE AT 
XAM 

5-44' 
5-54 
5-64 
5-74 
5-84 
5-94 



75-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

507 5 5" 
827 9 5 
617 16 13 



5-64 
5-94 



5-64 
5-94 



5-64 
6-94 




1951 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 




30 



COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 



35-64 COMtlMED 
• OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 



BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 



MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 



0.565 
0.591 
0.430 
0.583 



0.761 
0.468 



0.560 
0.429 



0.431 
Q.3ZS 



S7 
45 
41 


10 
20 
13 



123 



4S 


LOGISTIC 


REGRESSIONS 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VAIUE 


0.388 
0.226 
0.206 
0.263 


0.145 
0.009 
0.036 
0.026 


0.186 
0.155 


0.001 
0.005 


0.192 
0.156 


0.003 
0.006 


0.200 
0.160 


0.032 
0.042 



65-94 COMBINED 
• OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 



0.410 
0.460 
0.330 
0.441 



0.563 
0.359 



0.414 
0.329 



0.319 
0.249 



l< 

26 
•34 


76 



STD 
SE 



0.2S1 
0.175 
0.158 
0.199 



138 
119 



142 
120 



148 
122 



e 



220 - 



TABLE 11-4 nATE=i:APRS5 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
BY AGE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAM" FRAMINGHAM STUDY 30-YEAR FOLLOWUP 

SEXi MALE 

EVENTi CORONARY HEART DISEASE DEATH 

RISK FACTOR! SERUM CHOLESTEROL 

PERSONS AT RISK; PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



35-44 AT EXAM 
RISK PERSON I OF ANNUAL 

FACTOR EXAMS EVEJiTS RATE 



45-54 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXArtS EVENTS RATE 



55-64 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



45-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



S4-204 
205-234 
235-264 
265-294 
295-1124 

UNKHOHN 
TOTAL 



1253 
1247 
572 
475 
291 

334 
4472 






2 1 

1 1 

2 3 



5 1 



1767 
2306 
1745 
1001 
557 


5 
i 
6 
3 
5 


1 
2 

2 
1 
4 


34S 
7724 


1 
2S 


1 
2 



2255 

2405 

1839 

918 

454 

128 
8049 



7 
21 

ts 

7 
7 


60 



1234 
1 17 1 
873 
428 
191 

14 
3913 



17 
17 
1 1 
3 
6 


54 



4 
16 



' 75-84 AT EXAM 
RISK PERSON I OF ANNUAL 

FACTOR EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



85-94 AT PCAM 
PERSON I OF'^ annual 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



35-44 COMBINED 
t OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



45-94 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



84-204 
205-234 
235-264 
265-294 
1295-1124 

UNKNOMN 
TOTAL 



390 

332 

177 

96 

22 


1017 



9 

6 
4 
3 
1 


25 



12 
9 
1 1 
16 
23 



17 
1 1 

5 
6 



39 



12 


1 


1 


26 


8 


8 


29 


2 


2 


24 


8 


8 


2i 


3 


3 


16 


S 


5 


11 


2 


2 


6 


6 


6 


14 


5 


5 


7 


16 


17 


1 


1 














93 


2 


3 


79 


8 


3 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT . 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
45-94 




0.017 
0.009 
0.007 
0.001 
0.005 


0.005 
0.003 
0.003 
0.003 
0.005 


0.001 
0.003 
0.017 
0.658 
0.364 


0.735 
0.394 
0.278 
0.060 
0. 186 


0.217 
0.131 
0.117 
0. 136 
0.205 


35-44 
45-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.008 . 
0.002 


0.002 
0.003 


8.081 
0.449 


0.349 
0.085 


0.082 
0. 112 


35-64 
45-94 


BIVARIATE 
JIVARIATE 


0.009 
0.003 


0.002 
0.003 


0.001 
0.273 


0.382 
0.123 


0.084 
0.112 


35-44 
45-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.008 
0.003 


0.002 
0.003 


0.001 
0.244 


0.347 
0.124 


0.084 
0.112 



SEX> FEMALE 

EVENT' CORONARY HEART DISEASE DEATH 

RISK FACTOR' SERUM CHOLESTEROL 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



35-44 AT EXAM 
RISK PERSON ♦ OF ANNUAL 

FACTOR EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



45-54 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



55-64 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



45-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON » OF ANNUAL 

EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



84-204 
205-234 
235-264 
265-294 
295-1124 

UNKNOHN 
TOTAL 



2350 

1417 

806 

372 

171 

500 
54 16 



2094 
ZS58 

2259 
1473 

iiai 



2 
2 
2 

4 





1 
2 


1625 
26 15 
2938 
2240 
1866 


3 

4 

5 

8 

1 1 


t 
1 
1 
2 
3 


789 
1401 
1703 
1287 
1031 


1 
7 
9 
8 
16 


1 
2 
3 

3 
8 


474 
9959 



10 




1 


229 
11513 



31 



1 


37 
6248 


1 
. 42 


14 

3 



7 5-84 AT EXAM 
RISK PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
FACTOR EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



8 5-94 AT EXAM 

PERSON I OF'^ annual 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



35-44 COMBINED 
t OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



45-94 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



84-204 
205-254 
235-264 
265-294 
295-1124 

UNKNOHN 
TOTAL 



34 t 
486 
542 

350 
205 

7 
1951 



4 
9 
10 
5 
2 


30 



44 

28 

35 

9 

5 


123 



S 
« 
i 

to 

16 


43 



i 

14 
19 
14 
18 



74 



S 
4 
4 
4 
7 

I I 
5 



II 
4 



AGE AT 
EXAM 



COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



SE 

COEFFICIENT 



P-VALUE 



STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 



STD 
SE 



35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 

35-64 
45-94 

35-6'4 
65-94 

35-64 
65-94 



UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 



BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 



MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 



0.007 
0.012 
0.012 
0.000 



0.009 
0.005 



0.009 
0.007 



0.007 
0.007 



0.0O2 
0.003 
0.003 
0.004 



002 
003 



002 
003 



002 

, oirs 



0.007 
0.001 
0.001 
0.981 



0.001 
0.044 



0.001 
0.008 



0.001 
0.007 



0.304 
0.534 
0.540 
0.004 



0.433 
0.224 



0.398 
0.295 



0.342 
0.305 



0. 113 
0. 144 
0. 140 
0. 184 



0.097 
0.111 



0.085 
0. 1 12 



0.036 
0. I 12 



221 



RISK 

FACTOR 

25-<i2 

AT-** 

<i9-70 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



TABLE 11-5 0ATE=21N0V!5 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
BY AGE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAM' FRAMINGHAM STUDY 30-YEAR FOLLOHUP 

SEXi MALE 

EVENT' CORONARY HEART DISEASE DEATH 

RISK FACTOR: HEMATOCRIT 

PERSONS AT RISK' PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



35-<i<i AT EXAM <i5-51 AT EXAM 

PERSON » OF ANNUAL PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



623 
5<i6 
933 

775 
1 175 

370 
■4'*72 



9«2 


3 


2 


967 


<< 


2 


1854 


S 


2 


1510 


3 


1 


2066 


9 


2 


385 


1 


1 


772'> 


23 


2 



SS-Si* AT EXAM 
PERSON « OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1018 
935 
1953 
1599 
2338 

156 
80<i9 



8 

5 
17 

6 
2<i 


60 



65-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



«50 
493 
963 
361 
1127 

19 
3913 



4 

3 

11 

1<4 

22 


54 



4 
I 
6 
8 

10 



7 



r 



RISK 
FACTOR 

25-42 
43-44 
45-46 
47-48 
49-70 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



75-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



2U 
119 
240 
197 
247 


1017 



7 16 

3 13 

5 10 
2 5 

6 12 



23 11 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

16 

5 
7 
7 
4 


39 



35-64 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



65-94 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



12 


2 


2 


12 


9 


7 


9 


2 


2 


6 


5 


5 


25 


3 


5 


16 


7 


7 


9 


1 


1 


16 


8 


7 


37 


3 


3 


29 


1 1 


1 1 


1 


1 














93 


2 


2 


79 


8 


8 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


3E 

COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


35-44 
45-54 
55-«4 
S5-74 
7S-«4 
S5-94 




0.199 
0.018 
0.023 
0.077 
-0.01S 


0.113 
0.054 
0.034 
0.033 
0.050 


0.091 
0.745 
0,502 
0.040 
0.772 


0.730 
0. 063 
0.083 
0.285 
-0.061 


0.432 
0.193 
0.131 
0.139 
0.209 


35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.032 . 
0.038 


0.029 
0.030 


0.256 
0.206 


0.120 
0.146 


0.105 
0.115 


35-64 
65-94 


8IVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.030 
0.051 


0.028 
0.030 


0.286 
0.086 


0.111 
0.197 


0.104 
0.114 


35-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.002 
0.040. 


0.029 
0.030 


0.953 
0.186 


0.006 
0.154 


0.105 
0.117 



SEX" FEMALE 

EVENT! CORONARY HEART DISEASE DEATH 

RISK FACTOR! HEMATOCRIT 

PERSONS AT RISK! PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



( 



RISK 

FACTOR 

21-39 
40-41 
42-43 
44-45 
46-65 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



35-44 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

1697 

967 
1043 

356 

487 

566 

5616 



45- 

PERSON 
EXAMS 


54 AT EXAM 

1 OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


55- 

PERSON 
EXAMS 


64 AT EXAM 

f OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


6 5- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


74 AT EXAM 

< OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


1843 
1741 
1955 
2194 
1681 


1 

1- 



2 

6 







2 


1553 
2061 
2260 
2847 
2521 


8 
5 
5 

6 
7 


i 
1 
1 
1 
1 


644 
1069 
1256 
1609 
1626 


3 

4 

7 

14 

13 


2 
2 

3 
4 
4 


545 
9959 



10 




1 


271 
11513 



31 



1 


42 
6248 


1 
42 


12 

3 



RISK 
FACTOR 

21-39 
40-41 
42-43 
44-45 
46-65 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



AGE AT 
EXAM 

35-44. 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-34 
85-94 

35-64 

65-94 

35-64 
65-94 

35-64 
65-94 



75-84 AT EXAM 85-94 AT EXAM 

PERSON I OF ANNUAL PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATt EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



297 


5 


a 


373 


4 


5 


353 


3 


4 


486 


6 


6 


434 


12 


14 


6 








1951 


30 


8 



COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 



0.210 

-0.027 

0.083 

0.054 



UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 



BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 



MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 



0.056 . 
0.049 



0.019 
0.057 



-0.015 
0.048 



24 
31 
19 
26 
23 


10 
4 

5 

9 

13 



123 



43 


LOGISTIC 


REGRESSIONS 


SE 

COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


0.087 
0.051 
0.046 
0.048 


0.014 
0.595 
0.048 
0.255 


0.043 
0.033 


0.198 
0.132 


0.044 
0.032 


0.471 
0.074 


0.042 
0.032 


0.718 
0.135 



35-64 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



45-94 COMBINED 
• OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 



0.750 

-0.095 

0.291 

0.212 



200 
,177 



067 
206 



055 
173 



9 

9 

12 

20 

25 

1 
76 



5 

3 
4 
5 

6 

10 
5 



STD 

SE 



0.312 
0. 178 
0. 159 
0. 186 



0.1SS 
0.118 



O.I 58 
0.115 



0.152 
0.114 



( 



- 222 - 



TABLE 11-6 DATE=12DEC85 

AVERAGE AHNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
BY AGE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAM- FRAMINGHAM STUDT iO-TEAR FOLLOWUP 

SEX; MALE 

EVENT; CORONARY HEART DISEASE DEATH 

RISK FACTOR: BLOOD GLUCOSE (MG/DL) 

PERSONS AT RISK; PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 
FACTOR 

29-69 

70-89 

90-1 09 

1 tO-129 

130-52<i 

UNKNOUN 
TOTAL 



35-'44 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



992 

2501 

626 

105 

200 
1ii72 



<i5"5'i AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1490 

<<172 

13'*8 

105 

193 


S 
12 

1 


3 


3 
1 
1 

8 


216 
772<» 


1 
28 


2 
2 



55-6<i AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAHS EVENTS RATE 



1087 


7 


3 


ii056 


36 


i< 


1866 


1 I 


3 


537 


<^ 


H 


108 


2 


2 


95 








3a'^9 


60 


■i 



6 5-71 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



121 


5 


6 


1761 


18 


5 


1016 


15 


7 


335 


7 


10 


331 


9 


13 


16 








3913 


51 


7 



RISK 
FACTOR 

29-69 

70-89 

90-109 

110-129 

1 30-521 

UNKNOI'IN 
TOTAL 



AGE AT 
EXAM 

35-11 
15-51 
55-61 
65-71 
75-81 
85-91 

35-61 
65-91 

35-61 
65-91 

35-61 
65-91 



75-81 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



62 


2 


16 


377 


10 


13 


328 


5 


8 


125 


3 


12 


125 


3 


12 








_ 


1 017 


23 


11 



85-91 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



35-61 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



COEFFICIENT 
OF. RISK FACTOR 



0.006 
-0.001 

0.009 
-0.002 



UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 



BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 



MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 



003 
002 



001 
008 



-O.0O1 
0.007 



1 

1 1 

11 

1 

9 


15 

S2 

16 

<i 

5 



39 


1 
93 


LOGISTIC 


REGRESSIONS 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


0.005 
O.0O6 
0.002 
0,007 


0.198 
0.152 
0.001 
0.316 


0.001 
0.002 


0.167 
0.001 


0.004 
0.002 


0.821 
0.001 


0.001 
0. 002 


0.779 
0.001 



65-91 COMBINED 
J OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 



0.118 
-0. 120 

0.303 
-0.052 



0.061 
0.260 



-0.023 
0.255 



-0.028 
0.236 



7 
28 
21 
10 
13 


79 



1 1 
11 



STD 
S£ 



0.115 
0.159 
0.070 
0.221 



OSS 
066 



102 
069 



3 

7 

7 

1 1 

11 


8 



0.101 
0.071 



SEX: FEMALE 

EVENT: CORONARY HEART DISEASE DEATH 

RISK FACTOR; BLOOD GLUCOSE (MG/DL) 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 
FACTOR 

29-69 

70-89 

90-1 09 

1 10-129 

130-521 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



35-11 AT EXAM 15-51 AT EXAM 

PERSON • OF ANNUAL PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1066 

3112 

672 

96 

39 



331 
5616 



55-61 AT EXAM 65-71 AT EXAM 

PERSON I OF ANNUAL PERSON » OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1797 

5711 

1625 

301 

159 


2 

1 



1 


1 







13 


1369 

6098 

2712 

730 

138 


6 

16 
1 
1 
1 


2 

1 
1 
1 

5 


521 

3102 

1732 

501 

260 


5 
10 
13 

3 
10' 


5 

2 

1 

3 

11 


333 
9959 



10 




1 


166 
1151J 



31 



1 


32 
6218 


I 
12 


16 

3 



RISK 
FACTOR 

29-69 

70-S9 

90-109 

1 10-129 

130-521 

UNKNOMN 
TOTAL 



AGE AT 

EXAM 

35-11 
15-51 
55-61 
65-71 
75-S1 
85-91 

35-61 
65-91 

35-61 
65-91 

35-61 
65-91 



75-81 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 

EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



105 


2 


10 


823 


13 


8 


6141 


5 


1 


219 


6 


11 


163 


1 


12 


1 








1951 


30 


3 



UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 



BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 



85-91 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



35-61 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 



0.020 
0.007 
0.012 
0.007 



0.013 
0.011 



O.OIO 

o.ai 



MULTIVARIATE 0.008 
MULTIVARIATE 0.010 



3 
41 
51 
13 
12 


s 

22 
1 
1 
S 



123 



42 


LOGISTIC 


REGRESSIONS 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


0.001 
.001 
0.002 
0.003 


0.001 
0.127 
0.001 
0.011 


0.003 
0.002 


0.001 
0.001 


0.003 
. 002 


0.001 
0.001 


0. 003 
0.002 


0.007 
0.001 



65-94 COMBINED 
» OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 



0.396 
0.170 
0.352 
0.250 



275 
313 



226 
295 



,177 
,287 



7 
21 
19 

9 
16 



6 
15 



15 
5 



STD 
SE 



0.077 
0.1 I 1 
0.069 
0. 1 01 



058 
051 



063 
055 



065 
057 



5 

15 



12 
5 



223 



RISK 
FACTOR 



NO 
YES 



TABLE 11-7 DATE=12DECa5 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
3Y AGE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAM- FRAMINGHAM STUDY JO-YEAR FOLLOHUP 

SEX: MALE 

EVENT: CORONARY HEART DISEASE DEATH 

RISK FACTOR: DIABETES HELLITUS 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 

55-<i<i AT EXAM "45-54 AT EXAM SS-S'i AT EXAM 65-71 AT EXAM 

PERSON t OF ANNUAL PERSON • OF ANNUAL PERSON t OF ANNUAL PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



( 



A124 
48 



7456 
228 



26 
2 



7549 
500 



56 
4 



3504 
409 



44 
10 



6 
12 



UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 




4472 




7724 




28 




8049 




60 




J91 3 




54 



RISK 
FACTOR 



NO 
YES 



7 5-84 AT EXAM 85-94 AT EXAM 

PERSON I OF ANNUAL PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



900 
1 17 



22 

1 



12 

4 



34 
5 



35-64 COMBINED 
t OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



87 

6 



65-94 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



68 

11 



3 
10 



8 
t1 



UNKNOMN 
TOTAL 




1017 




23 




39 




93 




79 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STO 
SE 


35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 




0.889 

0.076 

0.678 

-1 .067 


0.737 
0.520 
0.354 
1 .027 


0.228 
0.S84 
0.055 
0.299 


0.154 

0.018 

0.208 

-0.341 


0.127 
0.125 
0.108 
0.323 


85-94 














35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.538 
0.307 


0.424 
0.328 


0.204 
0.350 


0.104 
0.095 


• 0.Q82 
0.101 


35-64 
65-94 


BIVARIATE 
alVARIATE 


0,208 
0.278 


0.426 
0.329 


0.625 

0.398 


0.040 
O.OSi 


0.082 
0. 102 


J5-64 

65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.104 
0.274 


0.433 
0.333 


0.809 
0.412 


0.020 

o.oas 


0.084 
0.103 



SEXi FEMALE 

EVENT: CORONARY HEART DISEASE DEATH 

RISK FACTOR' DIABETES MELLITUS 

PERSONS AT RISK' PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 
FACTOR 



NO 
YES 



PERSON 
EXAMS 



5573 
43 



35-44 AT EXAM 



I OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 



45-54 AT EXAM 



PERSON 
EXAMS 



9760 
199 



• OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 





10 



55-64 AT EXAM 



PERSON 
EXAMS 



10985 
528 



I OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 



25 
6 



6 5-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



5780 
468 



31 
1 I 



3 

12 



UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 




5616 




9959 




10 




11513 




31 




6248 



9 
42 



RISK 
FACTOR 



NO 
YES 



UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



: ACE AT 
EXAM 

35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 

35-64 
65-94 

35-64 
65-94 



7 5-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF' ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



17 38 
213 




1951 



UNIVARIATE 
UIIIVARIATE 



BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 



24 

6 




30 



7 
14 



8 5-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON » OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



35-64 COMOINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 



3.507 

1 .617 
1 .496 
0.728 



35-64 MULTIVARIATE 
65-94 MULTIVARIATE 



2.477 
1 .239 



2.108 
I . 142 



1 .791 
1 .021 



106 
17 


12 

11 



123 



43 


LOGISTIC 


REGRESSIONS 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


0.650 
0.457 
0.354 
0.462 


0.001 
0.001 
0.0O1 
0.116 


0.351 
0.273 


0.001 
0.001 


0.356 
0.275 


0.001 
0.001 


0.371 
0.285 


0.001 
0.001 



65-94 COMBINED 
» OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 



0.491 
0.338 

0.394 
0.227 



412 

544 



350 
316 



298 
283 



58 
'18 




76 



4 
13 



STD 
SE 



0.091 
0.096 
0.093 
0. 144 



058 
076 



059 
076 



062 
079 



4 
13 



c 



- 224 - 



TABLE 11-8 DATE=22N0V85 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
BY AGE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAM: FRAMINGHAM STUDY 30-YEAR FOLLOWUP 

SEX; MALE 

EVENT; CORONARY HEART DISEASE DEATH 

RISK FACTOR! GLUCOSE IN URINE. DEFINITE OR TRACE 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 

FACTOR 


35-4< 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


AT EXAM 
1 OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


45 

PERSON 
EXAMS 


-54 AT EXAM 

1 OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


55- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


64 AT EXAM 65- 
• OF ANNUAL PERSON 
EVENTS RATE EXAMS 


74 AT EXAM 

• OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


NO 
YES 


4350 
60 


5 1 



7535 

168 


26 
2 




2 
6 


7815 
210 


55 
4 


4 
10 


3767 
140 


44 

1 


6 
36 


UNKNOWN 32 
TOTAL 1*72 



5 1 


21 
7724 



28 





2 


24 
8049 


1 
60 


21 
4 


6 
3913 



54 




7 


RISK 

FACTOR 


75-S4 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


AT EXAM 
t OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


85 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


-94 AT EXAM 

1 OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


35- 
» OF 
EVENTS 


64 COMBINED 

AGE- 
CRUDE ADJUSTED 


65-94 COMBINED 
f OF AGE- 
EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 


NO 
YES 


986 

28 


21 11 
2 36 


38 

1 








86 
6 


2 

7 


2 
6 


67 
12 


7 
36 


7 
35 


j UNKNOHN 3 
1 TOTAL 1017 

I 



23 11 



39 








1 
93 


6 
Z 


8 
2 



79 



3 



8 


1 








LOGISTIC 


REGRESSIONS 












' AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 






P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 




STD 
SE 




J5-«4 
<i5-54 
55-6<i 
«5-7<* 
7S-8« 
85-9« 




1.247 
1 .008 
1 .875 
t .263 




0.738 
0.523 
0.362 
0.766 






0.091 
0.054 
O.OOI 
0.099 




0.182 

0.161 
0.34S 
0.207 




0.108 
0.083 
0.067 
0. 126 




, 35-61 
1 65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


1 .155 
1 .684 




0.425 
0.324 






0,007 
0.001 




0. IfS 
0.306 




0.062 
0.059 




35-64 
65-94 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


1 .011 
1.739- 




0.426 
0.326 






0.018 
0.001 




0.147 
0.315 




0.662 
0.059 




35-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.949' 
1.621 




0.432 
0.335 






0.028 
0.001 




0.138 
0.294 




0.063 
0.061 





SEX' FEMALE 

EVENT: CORONARY HEART DISEASE DEATH 

RISK FACTOR: GLUCOSE IN URINE, DEFINITE OR TRACE 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASC 



RISK 
FACTOR 



NO 
YES 



PERSON 
EXAMS 



5537 
41 



35-44 AT EXAM 



t OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 



45-54 AT EXAM 



PERSON 
EXAMS 



9841 
94 



• OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 



PERSON 
EXAMS 



11346 
144 



55-64 AT EXAM 



I OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 



28 
3 



1 
10 



PERSON 
EXAMS 



6131 
107 



63-74 AT EXAM 



• OF, ANNUAL 

EVENTS RATE 



37 
5 



3 

23 



UNKNOHN 

TOTAL 



38 
5616 



24 
9959 




10 



23 
11513 




31 



10 
6248 




42 



RISK 
FACTOR 



NO 
YES 



UNKNOHN 

TOTAL 



AGE AT 
EXAM 

35-44 
45-54 
S5-S4 
65-74 
75-84 
SS-94 

35-64 
65-94 

35-64 
65-94 

35-64 
65-94 



75-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1919 
23 



9 
19SI 



28 

2 




30 



7 
43 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



35-64 COMBINED 
t OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



65-94 COMBINED 



COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 



2.464 
2.152 
2.089 
1 .861 



UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 



BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 



MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 



551 
031 



425 

084- 



.049 
.907 



120 
3 


38 
5 



123 



«3 


LOGISTIC 


REGRESSIONS 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


1 .059 
0.613 
0.487 
0.764 


0.020 
0.001 
0.001 
0.015 


0.480 
0.384 


0.001 
0.001 


0.482 
0.387 


0.001 
0.001 


0.500 
0.404 


0.001 
O.OOI 



I OF 

EVENTS 



68 
8 



STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 



0.2J9 
0.239' 

0.271 
0.201 



,258 
,255 



245 
262 



,207 
,239 



- 
76 



4 
30 



•STD 
SE 



0.103 
0.068 
0.063 
0.083 



0.048 
0.048 



0.049 
0.049 



0.051 
0.051 



AGE- 
ADJUSTED 



4 
30 



225 - 



RISK 
FACTOR 



NO 
YES 



UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



TABLE 11-9 DATE=01MAR!6 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
BY AGE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAM' FRAHINGHAM STUDY 30-YEAR FOLLOWUP 

SEXi MALE 

EVENT: CORONARY HEART DISEASE DEATH 

RISK FACTOR! GLUCOSE INTOLERANCE 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



35-** AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



*335 
1J7 




**72 



*5- 
RSON 
A MS 


5* AT EXAM 

1 OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


55- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


4* AT EXAM 

1 OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


45- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


7* AT EXAM 

1 OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


7221 
503 


25 

3 


2 
3 


71*5 
90* 


55 

5 


* 
3 


3228 

485 


34 
18 


4 
13 



772* 



28 


2 



80*9 



40 


* 



3913 



5* 


7 



( 



RISK 
FACTOR 



NO 
YES 



75-8* AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



802 
215 



19 

* 



12 
9 



S5-9* AT EXAM 
PERSON « OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

27 
12 



35-6* COMBINED 
» OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



85 
8 



45-9* COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



54 
23 



7 
13 



7 
13 



UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 




1017 




23 




39 




93 




79 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 

35-** 
*5-5* 
55-4* 
45-7* 
75-8* 
85-9* 

35-4* UNIVARIATE 
65-9* UNIVARIATE 



35-4* 
45-9* 



35-4* 
45-9* 



BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 



MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 



COEFFICIENT 
RISK FACTOR 


SE 

COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STO 
SE 


. 5*4 
-0.333 

0.872 
-0.2*7 


0.413 
0.*48 
0.292 
0.554 


0*373 
0.*7S 
0.003 
0.657,,. . 


oTl35 
-0.105 

0.332 
-0.101 


0.1 51 
0. 1*8 
0.111 
0.227 


0.132 
0.41* 


0.371 
0.250 


0.723 
0.01* 


0.035 
0.238 


0.098 
0.097 


-0.1*7 
0.559 


0.373 
0.251 


0.693 
0.024 


-0.039 
0.214 


0.099 
0.097 


-0.20J 
0.520 


0.374 
0.25* 


0.590 
0.0*0 


-0.05* 
0.201 


0.100 
0.098 



SEXi FEMALE 

EVENT: CORONARY HEART DISEASE DEATH 

RISK FACTOR: GLUCOSE INTOLERANCE 

PERSONS AT risk: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 
FACTOR 


35- 

PERSON 
EXAMS 


** AT EXAM 

t OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


*5- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


5* AT EXAM 

1 OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


55- 

PERSON 
EXAMS 


4* AT EXAM 

« OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


45-7* AT EXAM 
PERSON 1 OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 


NO 
YES 


5522 
9* 






9588 
371 


4 
* 



5 


10503 
1010 


2* 

7 


1 
5 


5398 
850 


27 3 
15 9 


UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



5614 







9959 



10 


1 



11513 



51 


1 



42*8 



*2 3 


RISK 
FACTOR 


75- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


8*' AT EXAM 

« OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


85- 

PERSON 
EXAMS 


9* AT EXAM 

• OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


35- 
t OF 

EVENTS 


4* COMBINED 45- 
AGE- » OF 
CRUDE- ADJUSTED EVENTS 


9* COMBINED 

AGE- 
. CRUDE ADJU 


NO 
YES 


1581 
57 


25 

7 


7 


100 
25 






31 
12 


1 
* 


1 

5 


52 
2* 


* 
10 


UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



1951 



30 


8 



125 







*3 


1 


1 



76 


5 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



ACE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 

COEFFICIENT 


P-WALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


35-** 
*5-5* 
55-6* 
65-7* 
75-8* 
85-9* 




2.857 
1.11* 
1.27* 
0.267 


0.6*8 
0*31 
0.32* 
0.*36 


0.001 
0.010 
0.001 
0.5*0 


0.5*1 
0.515 
0.*37 
0.105 


0.123 
0.122 
0.111 
0.171 


35-4* 
45-9* 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


1 .912 
0.979 


0.3*1 
0.2*9 


0.001 
0.001 


0.*3* 
0.3*9 


0.077 
089 


35-6* 
45-9* 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


1 .538 
0.889 


0.3*6 
0.250 


0.001 
0.001 


0.3*9 
0.517 


0.079 
0.089 


35-4* 
45-9* 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


1 .3*5 
0.8*1 


0.35* 
0.256 


0.001 
0.001 


0.505 
0.500 


0.080 
0.091 



c 



226 - 



TABLE 11-10 DATE=21N0VS5 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
BY AGE AND LEVEL OF RISK -FACTOR AT EXAM' FRAMINGHAM STUDY iO-Y£AR FOLLOWUP 

SEXi MALE 

EVENT: CORONARY HEART DISEASE DEATH 

RISK FACTOR! METROPOLITAN RELATIVE WEIGHT (PERCENT) 

PERSONS AT RISK' PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 
FACTOR 

SI-ID'S 
105-1 It 
1 15-12'4 
125-13'i 
135-272 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



J5-'i<< AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



723 
96 5 
1 122 
915 
7147 




4472 





1 

2 1 
1 1 



5 1 



45-54 AT EXAM 55-64 AT EXAM 

PERSON t OF ANNUAL PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1151 
1540 
2037 
1645 
1370 

1 
7724 



2 1 
7 2 
9 2 

3 1 
7 5 




2S 



1 155 
1655 
2175 
1674 
1339 

1 
8049 



13 6 

10 3 

S 2 

13 4 

16 6 




60 



65-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



686 


9 


7 


851 


5 


3 


1069 


21 


10 


766 


1 1 


7 


541 


3 


7 








_ 


J913 


54 


7 



RISK 
FACTOR 

54-104 
105-1 14 
1 1 5-124 
125-134 
135-272 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



AGE AT 
EXAM 

35-44 
45-54 
55-44 

65-74 
75-34 
85-94 

35-64 
65-94 

35-64 
65-94 



75-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



224 
252 
296 
155 
90 


1017 



UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 



BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 



11 
12 
8 
10 
22 



85-94 AT EXAM 35-64 COMBINED 

PERSON t OF ANNUAL I OF AGE- 

EXAMS EVENTS RATE EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



5 
6 
5 
3 
4 


23 



COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 

0.019 
0.004 
0.005 
0.007 
-0.001 



35-64 MULTIVARIATE 
65-94 MULTIVARIATE 



0.006' 
0.004. 



0.006 
0.007 



0.003 



18 
9 

12 




16 
17 
IS 
18 
2<i 



39 



95 


LOGISTIC 


REGRESSIONS 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


0,026 
0.012 
0.008 
0.009 
0.014 


0.458 
0.723 
0.510 
0.413 
0.937 


0.006 
0.007 


0.341 
0.622 


0.006 . 
0.007 


0.349 
0.362 


0.007 
0.007 


0.651 
0.819 



65-94 COMBINED 
• OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 



,309 
,066 
,034 
,110 
017 



0.097 
0.055 



0.096 
0.103 



0.048 
0.027 



14 
12 
27 
14 
12 


79 



3 

5 

10 



STD 
SE 



,417 
187 

,127 
135 

,212 



102 
112 



102 
1 13 



106 
1 16 



7 

5 

10 



SEX' FEMALE 

EVENT: CORONARY HEART DISEASE DEATH 

RISK FACTOR: METROPOLITAN RELATIVE WEIGHT (PERCENT5 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 
FACTOR 

54-104 
105-1 14 
115-124 
125-134 
135-272 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



35-44 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

1694 
1430 
1058 

566 

860 

8 
5616 



45-54 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



2095 
2331 
2107 
1372 
2054 


9959 



2 


2 
6 


10 



55-64 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



2045 
2409 
2479 
1743 
2837 


1 1513 



4 
4 
10 
4 
9 


31 



65-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON < OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1216 


9 


4 


1145 


3 


3 


1395 


4 


1 


982 


9 


5 


1510 


12 


4 








_ 


6248 


42 


3 



RISK 
FACTOR 

54-104 
105-114 
1 15-124 
125-1 34 
135-272 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



AGE AT 
EXAM 

35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 

35-64 
65-94 

35-64 

65-94 

35-64 
65-94 



7 5-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



517 


7 


7 


375 


3 


4 


399 


8 


10 


266 


6 


1 1 


394 


6 


8 








_ 


951 


30 


8 



UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 



BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



35-64 COMBINED 
» OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 



0.027 

0.004 

-0.001 

0.009 



MULTIVARIATE 
tlULIIVARIATE 



0.014- 
-0.001 . 



0.011 
0.001 



0.006 
-0.002 



41 
28 

21 
16 
17 


7 
4 

10 
« 

1« 




123 



4S 


LOGISTIC 


REGRESSIONS 


SE 

COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


0.009 
0.008 
0. 007 
0. 008 


0.002 
0.617 
0.871 
0.272 


0.006 
0.005 


0.012 
0.851 


0.006 
0.005 


0.056 
0.792 


0.006 
0.005 


0.36 5 

0.775 



65-94 COMBINED 
« OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 






-0 




576 
085 
026 
188 



-0 


303 
022 






243 
031 



-0 


125 
034 



19 
11 
13 
15 
18 


76 



STD 
SE 



185 
170 
157 
172 



0.121 
0.116 



127 
1 16 



138 
118 



- 227 - 



RISK 
FACTOR 

!-«■» 

50-5A 
55-59 
60-S5 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



TABLE 11-11 DATE=21N0V85 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
BY AGE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAMi FRAMINGHAM STUDY 20-YEAR FOLLOWUP 

SEX: MALE 

EVENT- CORONARY HEART DISEASE DEATH 

RISK FACTOR: VITAL CAPACITY - HEIGHT INDEX (ML/INCH) 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



35-<i4 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



269 

<<11 

747 

1022 

2010 

13 
'i<i72 



45-5« AT EXAM 
PERSON < OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1062 
1125 
1655 
1739 
2135 

5 
772'i 



3 
3 
9 

9 


28 



55-64 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



2045 
1480 
1835 
1416 
1255 


20 

1 I 

14 

6 

9 


5 
4 
4 
2 
4 


18 
8049 



60 



4 



65-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1752 

749 
712 
442 
246 

12 
3913 



26 

15 



1 
54 



7 
10 
6 
2 
4 

42 

7 



C" 



RISK 
FACTOR 

8-44 
45-49 

50-54 
55-59 
60-85 

UNKNOWN 
.TOTAL 



AGE AT 
EXAM 

35-44 

4'3-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 

35-64 
65-94 

35-64 
65-94 

35-64 
65-94 



7 5-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATfe 



8 5-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON ♦ OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



35-64 COMBINED 
t OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



65-94 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



649 


16 


12 


172 


1 


3 


97 


2 


10 


65 


4 


31 


26 








3 








017 


23 


1 1 



UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 



BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 



MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 



COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 

-0.015 
0.015 
-0.016 
-0.028 
-0.006 



-0.024 
-0.026- 



-0.003 
-0.019 



0.006 
-0.014 



24 
6 
7 
2 



23 

15 
23 
12 
20 



39 



93 


LOGISTIC 


REGRESSIONS 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


0.049 
0.021 
0.014 ■ 
0.014 
0.023 


0,7 59 
0.476 
0.226 
0.051 
0.780 


0.010 
0.012 


0.024 

0.025 


0,011 
0.012 


0.771 
0.123 


0.012 
0.012 


0.603 
0.269 



STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 



-0.134 
0.137 



-0.154 
-0.264 



-0.228 
-0.252 



-0.032 
-0.179 



0.059 
-0.132 



43 

16 

11 

6 

2 

1 
79 



SID 
SE 

a. 439 
a. 192 

0.1Z7 
0.135 
0.211 



O.tOI 
0.112 



0.109 
0.116 



0.113 
0.119 



9 

8 
7 
8 
3 

33 

8 



SEX: FEMALE 

EVENT: CORONARY HEART DISEASE DEATH 

RISK FACTOR: VITAL CAPACITY - HEIGHT INDEX CML/INCH) 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



r 



RISK 
FACTOR 

4-29 

30-34 
35-39 
40-44 
45-92 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



35-44 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

122 

289 

769 
1427 
2988 

21 
5616 



45-54 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



55-64 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



65-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



534 
1217 
2077 
2804 
3310 


1 



2 

4 
3 


1 



1 




1461 
2418 
3043 
2706 
1859 


12 

7 
6 
5 
1 


4 
1 

1 
1 



1747 

1715 

1529 

854 

397 


22 

9 

4 

5 
2 


6 
3 
1 
3 
3 


17 
9959 



10 




1 


21 
11513 



31 




I 


6 
6248 



42 




3 



RISK 
FACTOR 

4-29 
30-34 
35-39 
40-44 
45-92 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



AGE AT 
EXAM 

35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-44 
85-94 

55-44 
65-94 

35-64 
65-94 

35-64 
65-94 



75-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF, ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



930 
569 
314 
111 
25 

2 
19S1 



15 
11 




30 



8 

10 
6 




8 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



35-64 COMBINED 
t OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 



-0,006 
-0 033 
-O.OSI 
-0.020 



UNIVARIATE 

UNIVARIATE 



BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 



MULTIVARIATE 
HULTIVARIAIE 



-0.081 
-0.050 



-0.055 
-0. 036 



-0.040 
-0.033 



80 
29 

13 
1 



13 

7 
9 
9 

5 



123 



43 


LOGISTIC 


REGRESSIONS 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


0.043 
0.022 
0.020 

o.ozt 


887 

0.001 
0.012 
0,435 


0.018 
O.OIS 


0.001 
0.001 


0,020 
0,016 


0.005 
0,020 


0.021 
0.017 


0, 054 
0.046 



65-94 COMBINED 
t OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 



-0.045 
-0.621 
-0.374 
-0.141 



-0.643 
-0.37 3 



-0.435 
-0.27S 



-0.318 
-0.249 



40 

21 

8 

5 

2 


76 



7 
5 

2 
3 
2.. 


5 



STD 
SE 



315 
0.164 
0.150 
0.181 



141 
111 



0.166 

0.125 



C, 



228 



TABLE 11-12 DATE=21N0VS5 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
BY AGE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAM! FRAMINGHAM STUDY JO-YEAR FOLLOWUP 

SEX I MALE 

EVENT: CORONARY HEART DISEASE DEATH 

RISK FACTOR" HEART RATE (PER MINUTE) 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 
FACTOR 

30-67 
68-75 
76-83 
8:^-91 
92-220 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



15-<4<i AT EXAM 
PERSON « OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



I2!'» 

l'i92 

722 

579 

395 


^•472 



<iS-5<i AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1949 
2'490 
1391 
1097 
794 


7724 



3 

6 
6 
6 

7 


28 



55-64 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



2309 
2490 
1374 
1064 
812 


8049 



17 
10 




60 



2 
3 

4 

4 

10 



65- 


■74 AT EXAM 


PERSON 


f OF 


ANNUAL 


EXAMS 


EVENTS 


RATE 


1 183 


12 


5 


1 159 


9 


4 


624 


10 


8 


487 


1 1 


1 1 


460 


12 


13 








_ 


391J 


54 


7 



'i 



RISK 
FACTOR 

30-67 
68-75 
76-83 
84-91 
92-220 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



75-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON f OF ANNtlAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



301 
296 
192 
123 
105 


1017 



7 
7 
4 
3 
2 


23 



12 
12 
10 
12 

10 



11 



85-94- AT EXAM 35-64 COMBINED 

PERSON t OF ANNUAL » OF AGE- 

EXAMS EVENTS RATE EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



11 

12 

10 

S 

1 




39 



65-94 COMBINED 
t OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



11 


1 


1 


19 


6 


6 


2J 


2 


2 


16 


5 


5 


17 


Z 


2 


14 


8 


3 


IS 


3 


3 


16 


13 


13 


Z4 


6 


6 


14 


12 


12 





. 







_ 




93 


2 


2 


79 


8 


8 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 


' I' '■ 


COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 


1 ; 1, 
,:'f '' 


0.050 
0.043 
0.036 
0.024 
0.002 


0.027 
0.013 
0.008 
0.009 
0.016 


0.068 
0.001 
0.001 
0.006 
0.904 


0.619 
0.S3S 
0.461 
0.333 
0.025 


. 0.339 
0.163 
0.109 
0.121 

■ 0.209 


35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.039 • 
0.019 . 


0.007 
0.008 


0.001 
0.012 


0.495 
0.258 


0.087 
0.103 


35-64 
65-94 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.038 
0.019 


0.007 
0.008 


0.001 
0.012 


0.485 
0.260 


0.086 
0.103 


35-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.030 
0.016 


0.007 
O.OOS 


0.001 
0.037 


0.J75 
0.220 


0.092 
0.103 



SEX: FEMALE 

EVENT: CORONARY HEART DISEASE DEaYh 

RISK FACTOR: HEART RATE (PER MINUTE) 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 
FACTOR 

30-67 
68-75 
76-83 
84-91 
92-220 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



35-44 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

1092 
1803 
1051 

939 

731 


5616 



45-54 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



55-64 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1897 
3244 
1911 
1604 
1303 


1 
4 

2 

3 




1 



1 
1 


2J05 
3468 
2351 
1780 
1609 


3 
10 

2 
10 

6 


1 
1 

3 
2 



9959 



10 


1 



11513 



31 


1 



65-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1103 
1668 
1358 
1089 
1030 


6248 



5 

11 
9 
7 

10 



42 



RISK 
FACTOR 

30-67 
68-75 
76-83 
84-91 
92-220 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



AGE AT 
EXAM 

35-44 

45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
35-94 

35-64 
65-94 

35-64 
65-94 

35-64 
65-94 



75-8* AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



462 
428 
330 
371 


1951 



6 

6 
7 
4 
7 


30 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



35-64 COMBINED 
» OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 



0.019 

0.020 

0.017 

-0.003 



UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 



BIVARIATE 
3IVARIATE 



MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 



020 
007 



019 
007 



0.008 
-0.001 



26 
32 
24 
23 

IS 


14 
13 



23 


43 


LOGISTIC 


REGRESSIONS 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


0.02J 
0.012 
0.011 
0.013 


0.414 
0.102 
0. 1 04 
0.833 


0.010 
0.008 


0.0S3 
0.376 


0.010 
0.008 


0.062 
0.417 


0.01 1 
0.009 


0.504 
0.922 



65-94 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 



0.237 

0.257 

0.226 

-0.039 



256 

098 



246 
089 





4 




4 




4 




•3 




6 


- 


. 


76 


5 



STD 
SE 



0.290 
0.157 
0.139 
0.187 



0.097 
-0.01 1 



133 
111 



132 

no 



145 
114 



- 229 - 



TABtE 11-13 DATE-12APR35 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
BY AGE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAM: FRAMINGHAM STUDY 30-YEAR FOLLOHUP 

SEX: MALE 

EVENT: CORONARY HEART DISEASE DEATH 

RISK FACTOR: CIGARETTES SMOKED (NUMBER PER DAY) 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



3S-<i<i AT EXAM 
RISK PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
FACTOR EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



= co.;n.^'^^.*L^^*" 55-6« AT EXAM 65-7^ AT EXAM 

cv?.^2 J °^ ANNUAL PERSON I OF ANNUAL PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



C 



NONE 

1-10 
1 1-20 
21-<i0 
11-90 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



1383 
133 

l<i8S 
987 
158 

26 
<i'i72 





1 I 


3 2 

1 3 

D 

5 1 



3068 


6 


1 


716 


3 


2 


2051 


. 10 


2 


1602 


6 


2 


252 


2 


<f 


35 


1 


U 


nz<. 


28 


2 



4295 


22 


3 


769 


7 


5 


1682 


18 


5 


1 1 19 


9 


<< 


162 


"i 


12 


2Z 








80<i9 


60 






26 11 


31 


6 


371 


6 


8 


526 


10 


10 


369 


6 


a 


27 


1 


19 


6 








3913 


51 


7 






75-81 AT EXAM 
RISK PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
FACTOR EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



35-61 COMBINED 
• OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



45-91 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE AOjgSTEO 



NONE 

1-10 
1 1-20 
21-10 
11-90 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



797 


20 


13 


92 


3 


16 


77 








16 








S 














_ 


1017 


23 


1 1 



27 
6 
5 

1 



39 



28 


2 


2 


52 


8 


8 


11 


3 


3 


9 


10 


10 


ZS 


3 


3 


1 1 


9 


9 


IS 


2 


3 


6 


7 


6 


7 


6 


7 


1 


16 


15 


1 


i 


5 


a 








9i 


2 


3 


79 


8 


8 



LOaiSTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 


'.'(.;';';/ 


COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 

3_E 


35-11 
15-51 
55-61 
65-71 
75-81 
85-91 


a 
; : 


0.056 
0.019 
0.021 
0.013 
-0.079 


0.028 
0,012 
0.008 
0.010 
0.058 


0.014 
0. 104 
0.008 
0.208 
0. 168 


0.791 
0.282 
0.293 
0. 153 
-0.723 


0.398 
0.171 
0.110 
0. 121 
0.525 


35-41 
45-91 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.017 . 
0.002 


0.007 
0.010 


0.010 
0.802 


0.213 

0.028 


0.095 
0.111 


35-41 
65-91 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.021 
0.007 


0.004 
0.010 


0.001 
0.182 


0.314 
0.078 


0.092 
0.111 


15-41 
65-91 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.025 
0.011 


0.004 
0.010 


0.001 
0.281 


0.357 
0. 1 19 


0.092 

0.111 



SEX: FEMALE 

EVENT: CORONARY HEART DISEASE DEATH 

RISK FACTOR: CIGARETTES SMOKED (NUMBER PER DAY) 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



35-11 AT EXAM 15-51 AT EXAM 

RISK PERSON » OF ANNUAL PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
FACTOR EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAflS EVENTS RATE 



55-41 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL, 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



65-7* AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



NONE 

1-10 
I 1-20 
21-10 
11-90 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



2582 

1311 

137 1 

298 

22 

29 
54 14 



5528 

1726 

2009 

422 

J7 

n 

9959 





10 



7595 


21 


1 


1863 


28 


3 


1544 


5 


2 


624 


5 


1 


1694 


1 


1 


S48 


8 


7 


402 


1 


1 


172 








14 














- 


38 








19 


1 


26 


11513 


31 


I 


4218 


12 


3 



75-81 AT EXAM 
RISK PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
FACTOR EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



85-91 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



35-61 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



45-91 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



HONE 

1-10 
11-20 
21-10 
11-90 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



AGE AT 
EXAM 

35-11 
15-51 
55-41 
65-71 
75-81 
85-91 

35-61 
65-91 

35-61 
65-91 

35-41 
65-91 



1710 


25 


7 


137 


i 


1 1 


81 


2 


12 


14 














- 


1 








1951 


30 


8 



COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 



0.034 

-0.010 

0.020 

0.001 



UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 



BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 



MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 



0.009 
0.008 



0.018 
0.0 18 



0.021 
0.025 



117 
1 
2 






25 



123 



13 


LOGISTIC 


REGRESSIONS 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


0.021 
0.021 
0.017 
0.035 


0. 110 
0.431 
0.233 
0.905 


0.011 
0.015 


0.523 
0.4 18 


0.0 11 
0.015 


0. 199 
0.251 


0.011 
O.OIS 


0. 131 
0.095 



STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 



0.364 

-0.09J 

0. 153 

0.021 



0.091 
0.05« 



176 
I2« 



,Z0< 
. )«0 



-57 

8 

10 







76 



22 
5 



STD 
SE 



0.219 
0. 194 
0. 129 
0. 177 



0. 112 

0. 107 



138 
108 



138 
108 



20 
1 



C. 



- 230 - 



TABLE 11-1A DATE=21N0V85 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS *T RISK AT EXAM 
BY AGE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAMi FRAMINCHAM STUDY JO-YEAR FOLLQWUP 

SEXi MALE 

EVENT: CORONARY HEART DISEASE DEATH 

RISK FACTORi ALBUMIN IN URINE, DEFINITE „^.,,^ 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 
FACTOR 



NO 
YES 



UNKNOWN 

TOTAL 



RISK 
FACTOR 



NO 
YES 



; UNKNOMN 
I TOTAL 



5S-'i<* AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



'i5-5<i AT EXAM 



<<}66 

70 



36 
'i:i72 



PERSON 
EXAMS 



7599 
99 



26 
7724 



EVENTS RATE 



26 
2 




2S 



2 
10 



75-S4 AT EXAM 85-9'* AT EXAM 

PERSON I OF ANNUAL PERSON f OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



989 
25 



3 
1017 



22 
1 




23 



11 
20 




1 1 



32 

7 




39 



55-64 AT EXAM 65-74 AT EXAM 

PERSON I OF ANNUAL PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



7838 
ISt 



27 
8049 



56 
J 



1 
60 



35-6<i COMBINED 
t OF ACE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJl 



87 
S 



1 
93 





EXAMS 


EVENTS 


RATE 




i792 

Its 


49 

5 


6 
22 




6 
3913 



54 



7 


STED 


65 
» OF 
EVENTS 


■94 COMBINED 

AGE- 
CRUDE ADJUSTED 


2 

7 


73 
6 


3 
20 


3 
21 


7 
2 



79 



3 



8 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-34 




1 .793 
0.834 
1 .245 
0.605 


0.741 
0.597 
0.479 
1 .043 


0.016 
0.163 
0.009 
0.562 


0.202 
0.125 
0.210 
0.094 


0.083 
0.039 
0.081 
0.162 


85-94 














35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


1 .181 
1.014 


0.463 
0.433 


0.011 
0.019 


0.155 
0.172 


0.061 
0.073 


35-64 
65-94 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


1.018 
0.967 . 


0.465 
0.436 


0.029 
0.027 


0.134 
0.164 


0.061 
0.074 


35-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.501- 
0.589 


0.480 
0.448 


0.297 
0.189 


0.066 
0.100 


0.063 
0.076 



SEX: FEMALE 

EVENT: CORONARY HEART DISEASE DEATH 

RISK FACTOR: ALBUMIN IN URINE, DEFINITE 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



35-44 AT EXAM 



RISK 
FACTOR 


PERSON 
EXAMS 


• OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


PERSON 
EXAMS 


NO 
YES 


5353 

225 




9656 
278 


UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 


38 
5616 




25 
9959 


RISK 
FACTOR 


75- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


84 AT EXAM 

1 OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


85 

PERSON 
EXAMS 


NO 
YES 


1904 
38 


50 i 



120 
3 


UNKNOHN 
TOTAL 


9 
1951 



30 8 



123 



45-54 AT EXAM 

I OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 



10 





10 



85-94 AT EXAM 

I OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 



55-64 AT EXAM 65-74 AT EXAM 

PERSON t OF ANNUAL PERSON « OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



11263 
225 



25 

11513 



29 
2 




31 



35-64 COMBINED 
t OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



41 

2 




43 



6118 
120 



10 
6248 



40 
2 




42 



65-94 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



74 
2 




76 



— 
5 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


35-44 
45-54 
SS-44 
«5-74 
7S-«4 
85-94 




1.245 
0.946 


0.754 
0.751 


0.090 
0.195 


0.173 
0.130 


0.102 
0. 100 


35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.567 
0.316 


0.725 
0.721 


0.454 
0.661 


0.092 
0.044 


0.117 
0.099 


35-64 
65-94 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.809 
0.298. 


0.727 
0.722 


0.266 
0.680 


0.151 
0.041 


0.118 
0.100 


35-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


-0.167' 
-0.133 


0.872 
0.737 


0.848 
0.857 


. -0.027 
-0.018 


0.141 
0.1 OZ 



231 



table 11-15 date=21hqv85 

average annual incidence rate for event per 1000 persons at risk at exam 
by age and level of risk factor at exami framingham study jo-year followup 

sex; male 

event: coronary heart disease death 

risk factor: heart enlargement by x-ray 

persons at risk: persons free of coronary heart disease 



35-<4"i AT EXAM 
RISK PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
FACTOR EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



NO 'iOiJ 

MILD 185 

DEFINITE 219 



UNKNOHN 
TOTAL 



5 
4<i72 



<i5-5i4 AT EXAM SS-S'i AT EXAM 

PERSON I OF ANNUAL PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



6383 
650 
657 

It 
7724 




23 



5967 

962 

1119 

1 
50<49 




60 



65-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



2581 

578 
751 


J9IJ 



31 

7 
16 


54 



6 

6 
11 



RISK 
FACTOR 

NO 

MILD 

DEFINITE 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



7S-S4 AT EXAM 
PERSON f OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



589 
178 
250 


1017 



9 
6 

8 


23 



8 

17 
16 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

29 
5 
5 


39 



35-64 COMBINED 
t OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



65-94 COMBINED 
f OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



«4 


2 


2 


40 


6 


6 


10 


3 


2 


14 


9 


9 


U 


5 


4 


25 


12 


12 











a 


_ 




93 


2 


2 


79 


8 


8 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 

COEFFICIENT 


P-VAIUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-54 
55-94 




0.685 
0.182 
0.277 
0.334 


0.219 
0.16S 
0.158 
0.235 


0.002 
0.27 
0.079 
0.102 


0.418 
0.131 
0.220 
0.325 


0.134 
0.119 
0.125 
0.199 


35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.435 
0.352 


0.129 
0.125 


0.001 
0.006 


0.277 
0.284 


0.032 
0.103 


35-64 
65-94 


8IVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.302 
0.321 ■ 


0.132 
0.I2S 


0.022 
0.012 


0.192 
0.259 


0.034 
0.104 


35-64 

65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.221 
0.165 


0.140 
0.133 


0.114 
0.231 


0.141 
0.133 


0.089 
0.111 



SEX' FEMALE 

EVENT' CORONARY HEART DISEASE DEATH 

RISK FACTOR' HEART ENLARGEMENT BY X-RAY 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 
FACTOR 

NO 

MUD 

DEFINITE 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



55-44 AT EXAM 45-54 AT EXAM 

PERSON • OF ANNUAL PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



5164 
199 
245 

8 
5616 



8017 
943 
993 

6 
9959 



55-64 AT EXAM 
PERSON « OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



7522 
1769 
2218 

4 
11S13 



10 1 

9 3 

12 3 




31 



6 5-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



3191 

1150 
1907 


6248 



13 

8 

21 


42 



RISK 
FACTOR 

NO 

MILD 
DEFINITE 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



AGE AT 

EXAM 

35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 



75-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON e OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



702 
373 
876 


1951 



35-64 
65-94 



55-64 
65-94 



35-64 
65-94 



4 

3 

11 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 



BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 



MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 



5 

6 

19 


30 



COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 



0.809 
0.692 
0.499 
0.528 



0.397 
0.516 



35-64 COMBINED 
• OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



694 
444 



53 5 
363 



32 
30 
61 


11 

16 



23 



43 


LOGISTIC 


REGRESSIONS 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALue 


0.350 
0.199 
0.175 
0.234 


0.021 
0.001 
0.004 
0.024 


0.165 
0.134 


0.001 
0.001 


0.172 
0.136 


0.001 
O.QOI 


0.182 
0. 142 


0.001 
0.011 



45-94 COMBINED 
» OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 



0.514 

0.551 
0.439 
0.472 



0.626 

0.461 



434 
397 



408 
324 



20 
15 
41 


76 



■ 3 

5 
7 



STD 
SE 



0.223 
0.153 
0.154 
0.209 



0.115 
0.119 



120 
121 



127 
127 



(, 



- 232 



TABLE 11-16 



DATE=12APR8S 



AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
BY AGE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAM" FRAMINGHAM STUDY JO-YEAR FOLLOWUP 

SEXi MALE 

EVENT: CORONARY HEART DISEASE DEATH 

RISK FACTOR: LEFT VENTRICULAR HYPERTROPHY BY ELECTROCARDIOGRAM 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



JS-'i'i AT EXAM 
RISK PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
FACTOR EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



•.S-S"* AT EXAM 55-6^ AT EXAM 

PERSON « OF ANNUAL PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
eXArtS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



6 5-7* AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



NO 

BORDER 

DEFINITE 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



78 
23 


:»<«72 



7197 
132 
95 





2'4 
1 
3 




28 



2 

:; 

16 



7693 
210 
1<<6 


80^*9 



56 


<i 


60 



3703 
90 
120 


3913 



:<l 

9 




6 
22 
38 



RISK 
FACTOR 



NO 

BORDER 

DEFINITE 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



75-8<* AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



S5-9'( AT EXAM 



919 
37 
31 


(017 



22 

1 


23 



12' 


16 



PERSON 
EXAMS 



34 
2 
3 




39 



f OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 



I OF 
EVENTS 



85 
1 
7 



35-6<l COMBINED 




93 



CRUDE 

2 
1 



AGE- 
ADJUSTED 

3 
2 
12 



» OF 

EVENTS 

65 

10 


79 



65-9't COMBINED 
AGE 
CRUDE 



7 
16 
32 



ADJUSTED 

7 
17 
33 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED' 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


35-*'i 

55-6:i 
65-7<i 
7 5-5<i 
85-94 




1.136 

0.497 

1.<019 

-0.076 


0.306 
0.285 
0. 182 
0.579 


Q.OOl 
0.082 
0.001 
0.896 


0.289 

0. 153 

0.379 

-0.029 


0.078 
0.088 
0.068 
0.223 


35-64 
65-9<4 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.794 
0.800 


0.208 
0. 170 


0.001 
0.001 


0.212 
0.302 


0.056 
0.064 


35-64 
65-94 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.681 
0.78a 


0.209 
O.I7t 


0.001 
0.001 


0. 182 
0.297 


0.056 
0.064 


35-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.43S 
0.57t 


0.229 
0. 188 


0.056 
0.002 


0.117 
0.215 


0.061 
■ 0.07 1 



SEX! FEMALE 

EVENT: CORONARY HEART DISEASE DEATH 

RISK FACTOR: LEFT VENTRICULAR HYPERTROPHY BY ELECTROCARDIOGRAM 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE Of CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



35-44 AT EXAM 
RISK PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
FACTOR EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



45-54 AT EXAM 55-64 AT EXAM 

PERSON I OF ANNUAL PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



6 5-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON i OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



iNO 

.BORDER 
DEFINITE 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



5563 
38 
15 


56 16 



9798 

107 

54 


10 




1 




11 137 
226 
150 


29 




1 

7 


5966 
134 
143 


36 
2 
4 


3 
7 
14 



9959 



10 


1 



1 1513 



31 


1 



6248 


• 
42 


3 



RISK 
FACTOR 



NO 

BORDER 
DEFINITE 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



75-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1833 
49 
69 


1951 



26 
2 
2 


30 



7- 
20 
14 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



35-64 COMBINED 
» OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE" ADJUSTED 



1 1 1 
6 
6 


40 

3 


a 

123 



43 



65-94 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED - 



1 


to 



66 

4 
6 


76 



4 
1 1 

13 



10 

14 



AOE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


35-44 

45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-34 
85-94 




0.666 
0.775 
0.460 


0.39S 
0.254 
0.327 


0.095 
0.002 
0. 159 


0. 176 
0.259 
0. 185 


0.105 

o.ass 

0.130 


35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.977 
0.633 


0.322 
0.200 


0.002 
0.002 


0.208 
0.223 


0.069 
0.070 


35-64 
65-94 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.781 
0.58 1 , 


0.327 
0.201 


0.017 
0.004 


0. 166 
0.204 


0.070 
0.07t 


35-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.401 • 
0.403 


0.363 
0.215 


0.269 

0. 06 1 


0.085 
0. 142 


0.077 
0.076 



233 



TABLE 11-17 DATE=21N0V85 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
BY AGE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAM' FRAMINGHAM STUDY 30-YEAR FOLLOWUP 

SEX I MALE 

EVENT' CORONARY HEART DISEASE DEATH 

RISK FACTOR' lUTRAVEMTRICULAR CONDUCTION DEFECT (WITH QRS INTERVAL MORE THAN 0.11 SECOND) 

PERSONS AT RISK' PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 

FACTOR 

NO 

INCOMPLETE 

COMPLETE 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



35-'H<i AT EXAM 
PERSON » OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



4U1 

275 

36' 


11*72 



'iS-S'i AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



7213 

65 


7724 



25 
2 

1 


23 



55-64 AT EXAM 65-74 AT EXAM 

PERSON I OF ANNUAL PERSON • OF ANNUAL 

EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



r 



7 386 
456 
207 


80<«9 



51 

4 
5 


60 



3 

4 
12 



3566 
185 
164 


3913 



50 
2 
2 


54 



RISK 
FACTOR 

NO 

INCOMPLETE 

COMPLETE 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



AGE AT 
EXAM 

35-44 

45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 



75-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON « OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



918 
21 
78 


1017 



35-64 
65-94 



35-64 
65-94 



35-64 
65-94 



20 
1 
2 


23 



11 
24 

13 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON » OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



35-64 COMBINED 
» OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 



0.557 

0.563 

-0. 108 

0.135 



UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 



aiVARIATE 
flIVARIATE 



MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 



0.615 
0.099 



0.495 
0.050 



0.543 
0.091 



31 
2 
6 


81 
6 
6 



39 



93 


LOGISTIC 


REGRESSIONS 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


0.460 
0.230 
0.335 
0.350 


0.226 

0.014 
0.746 
0.700 


0.208 
0.224 


0.003 
0.658 


0.205 
0.223 


0.016 
0.823 


0.209 
0.226 


0.010 
0.687 



2 
3 

10 



65-94 COMBINED 
» OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 



0.163 

0.217 

-0 048 

0.073 



0.205 
0.047 



0.165 
0.023 



0.181 
0.043 



71 
3 
5 


79 



8 

7 

10 



STD 
SE 



0.135 
0.038 
0. 149 
0.191 



0.069 

0. 105 



0.068 
0.105 



0.070 
0.106 



SEX' FEMALE 

EVENT: CORONARY HEART DISEASE DEATH 

RISK FACTOR' INTRAVENTRICULAR CONDUCTION DEFECT (WITH 9RS INTERVAL MORE THAN 0.11 SECOND) 

PERSONS AT RISK' PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



( 



RISK 
FACTOR 




35- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


44 


AT EXAM 
1 OF ANNUAL 

EVENTS RATE 


45- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


54 AT EXAM 

• OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


55- 

PERSON 
EXAMS 


64 AT EXAM 65- 
• OF ANNUAL PERSON 
EVENTS RATE EXAMS 


74 AT EXAM 

« OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


NO 

INCOMPLETE 
COMPLETE 


5529 
75 
12 






9771 

144 

44 


10 






1 




11183 
187 
143 


28 

1 
2 


1 
3 
7 


6027 
115 
106 


40 



2 


3 

9 


UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 





5616 







9959 



10 




1 



11513 



31 


1 



6248 



42 


3 


RISK 
FACTOR 




75- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


84 


AT EXAM 
1 OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


85- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


■94 AT EXAM 

I OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


35- 
1 OF 

EVENTS 


64 COMBINED 

AGE- 
CRUDE - ADJUSTED 


65-94 COMBINED 
• OF AGE- 
EVENTS CRUDE ADJUS 


NO 
INCOMPLETE 

COMPLETE 


1847 
36 
68 




28 8' 

2 15 


117 

1 
5 








40 
1 
2 


1 
1 
5 


1 
1 

3 


72 

4 


5 



11 


5 



11 


UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 





1951 





30 8 



123 









43 


1 


1 



76 


5 


5 














LOGISTIC 


REGRESSIONS 












AGE AT 
EXAM 








COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 






P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 




STD 
SE 




35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 








0.S55 
0. 374 
0.248 




0.354 
0.394 
0.389 






0.016 
0.343 
0.523 




0.217 
0. 108 
0.096 




0.090 
0.114 
0.151 




35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 




0.890 
0.331 




0.356 
0.277 






0.012 
0.231 




0.186 
0.105 




0.074 
0.088 




35-64 
65-94 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 




0.698 
0.264 • 




0.3S4 
0.276 






0.049 
0.339 




0,146 
0.084 




0.074 
0.088 




35-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.707 
0.301 




0.358 
0.278 






0.048 
0.279 




0. 147 
0.096 




0.075 
0.088 





I. 



-234 



. TABLE 11-18 DATE=21N0V85 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM ' • : 

BT AGE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAM: FRAMINGHAM STUDY 30-YEAR FOLLOWUP . • - 

SEXi MALE 

EVEHTt CORONARY HEART DISEASE DEATH 

RISK FACTOR: DEFINITE NONSPECIFIC T-WAVE OR ST-SEGMENT ABNORMALITY BY ELECTROCARDIOGRAM 

PERSONS AT RISKi PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



RISK 
FACTOR 



NO 
' YES 



35-44 AT EXAM 
PERSON » OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



4362 
1 10 



45-54 AT EXAM 
PERSON * OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



7352 
372 



25 

3 



55-64 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



7462 
587 



54 
6 



65-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



3472 
441 



43 

1 1 



6 
12 



UNKNOHN 
TOTAL 




4472 




7724 




28 




8049 




60 




3913 




54 



RISK 
FACTOR 



NO 
YES 



UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



75-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



830 
187 




1017 



20 
3 




23 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

28 
1 1 




39 



35-64 COMBINED 
t OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



84 

9 




93 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



65-94 COMBINED 
« OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



63 

16 




79 



7 
13 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


35-44 




- 


- 


- 


- 


— 


45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 




0.368 
0.348 

0.713 
-0.415 


0.613 
0.432 
0.342 
0.625 


0.157 
0.421 
0.037 
0.506 


0.186 

0.091 

0.225 

-0.161 


0.131 
0.112 
0.1 08 
0.242 


35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.657 
0.554 


0.352 
0.283 


0.062 
0.051 


0. 147 
0.185 


0.079 
0.095 


- 35-64 
65-94 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.422 
0.457 • 


0.354 
0.286 


0.233 
0.110 


0.094 
0.153 


0.079 
0.096 


35-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.074 ■ • 
0.370 


0.360 
0.289 


0.838 
0.201 


0.017 
0.124 


0.080 
0.097 



7 
12 



SEX: FEMALE 

EVENT: CORONARY HEART DISEASE DEATH 

RISK FACTOR: DEFINITE NONSPECIFIC T-WAVE OR ST-SEGMENT ABNORMALITY BY ELECTROCARDIOGRAM 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE 



35-44 AT EXAM 



RISK 
FACTOR 


PERSON 
EXAMS 


i OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


PERSON 
EXAMS 


NO 
YES 


5517 
99 




9543 
416 


UNKNOHN 
TOTAL 



5616 





9959 


RISK 
FACTOR 


75- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


84 AT EXAM 

1 OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


85 

PERSON 
EXAMS 


NO 
YES 


1632 
319 


25 S" 
5 8 


97 
26 


UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



1951 



30 8 



123 



45-54 AT EXAM 

I OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 




10 



85-94 AT EXAM 

i OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 



55-64 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



10647 
366 




11513 



23 

3 




31 



65-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON » OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



35-64 COMBINED 
♦ OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



32 
11 




43 



5528 
720 




6248 



32 
10 



• 
42 



65-94 COMBINED 
« OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



60 
16 




76 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
7S-84 
85-94 




2.292 

1 .460 
0.883 
0.023 


0.692 

0.412 
0.364 
0.494 


0.001 
0.001 
0.015 
0.962 


0.459 
0.385 
0.282 
0.009 


0.138 
0.109 
0.116 
0.183 


35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


1 .863 
0.604 


0.351 
0.283 


0.001 
0.033 


0.410 
0.202 


0.077 
0.095 


35-64 
65-94 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


1 .533 
0.507 


0.355 
0.285 


0.001 
0.075 


0.337 

0.169 


0.078 
0.095 


35-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


1 .296 ■ 
0.415 


0.360 
0.287 


0.001 
0. 148 


0.285 
0.139 


0.079 
0.096 



235 



RISK 

FACTOR 

74-119 
I20-1J9 
140-159 
160-179 

isa-300 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



RISK 
FACTOR 

74-1 19 
120-139 
140-159 
140-179 

isa-300 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



AGE AT 
EXAM 

35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-S4 
S5-94 



lABLi, li-1 DATE=19Ar-R8S 

iuFBir.F ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM. 
B? AGE ANSLEiEL OF Risl FACTOR AT E^AM. FRAMINGHAM STUDY 30-YEAR FOLLOHUP 

SEX' MALE 

EVENT! CORONARY HEART DISEASE DEATH Tv-ruro /mm ur\ 

RISK FACTOR: SYSTOLIC BLOOD PRESSURE, FIRST EXAMINER (MM HG) 
PERSONS AT RISK! ALL PERSONS ALIVE 



35-44 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 



45-54 AT EXAM 



EXAMS 

1226 
2193 

SSO 
197 
53 


4519 



PERSON 
EXAMS 

1842 

3542 

IS38 

598 

247 


8067 



I OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 



55-64 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 

EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



9 

18 

1 1 

S 

3 


49 



1605 
3525 
237 1 
1062 
507 


9070 



14 
41 
31 
19 
15 


120 



4 
6 
7 
9 
15 



65- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 

659 
1636 
1473 
696 
370 


4834 



■74 AT EXAM 

t OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 



( 



75-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON » OF ANNUAL 

EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



144 


9 


31 


451 


15 


17 


41 1 


20 


24 


218 


9 


21 


121 


1 1 


45 








- 


1i45 


64 


24 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 

EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

8 
17 
17 

6 

2 


50 



» OF 

EVENTS 

26 
62 
42 
27 
IS 


175 



35-64 COMBINED 



CRUDE 

3 
3 
4 
7 
II 



AGE- 
ADJUSTED 

3 

4 
4 
6 
9 



35-64 
65-94 



35-64 
65-94 



35-64 
65-94 



COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 

-0.050 
0.016 
0.014 
0.016 
0.010 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 
P-VALUE 



UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 

BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 

MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 



0.018 
0.014 



0.012 
0.014 



0.005 
0.008 



SE 
COEFFICIENT 

0.031 
0.006 
0.004 
0.004 
0.905 



0.003 
0,003 



.003 
003 



003 
003 



0.110 
0.010 
0. 00 I 
. 001 
0.064 



0.001 
0.001 



o.oot 
o.oot 



0. 142 
0.009 



0.256 
0.330 



0. 103 

0. 193 



SEX: FEMALE ^ - 

EVENT: CORONARY HEART DISEASE DEATH 

RISK FACTOR: SYSTOLIC BLOOD PRESSURE. FIRST EXAMINER (MM HG) 
PERSONS AT RISK: ALL PERSONS ALIVE 



8 
26 
35 
23 
17 


109 



17 
23 



I OF 

EVENTS 

17 
41 
55 
34 
28 


175 



65-94 COMBINED 



CRUDE 

10 
10 
14 
18 
28 



AGE- 
ADJUSTED 



1 1 
10 



19 
28 



STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 

-0.841 
0.315 
0.304 
0.366 
0.222 



0.361 
0.330 



STD 
SE 



,526 
122 
.080 
,084 
, 120 



062 
068 



064 
069 



,070 
,074 



( 



35-44 AT EXAM 
RISK PERSON I OF ANNUAL 

FACTOR EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



45-S4 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ' ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



55-64 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF AMNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



6 5-7* AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANHUAl 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



74-119 
120-139 
140-159 
160-179 
tSO-300 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



2493 

2245 

674 

156 

SI 


56 19 



2724 

4027 

2086 

785 

450 


I 
3 
5 

1 




a 

I 



1 


2039 
4199 
3197 
1632 
9S6 


4 
7 
14 
9 
3 


1 
1 

2 
3 

4 


683 
1918 
2283 
136 

859 


2 

14 

20 
13 
Z 1 


1 
4 
4 
7 
12 



10072 



10 


0. 



12103 



42 


2 



7103 


■ 
75 


5 



RISK 
FACTOR 

74-119 
120-139 
140-159 
160-179 
130-300 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



75-S4 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



158 


2 


6 


56 1 


12 


1 1 


759 


14 


9 


56 1 


18 


16 


380 


16 


21 








. 


24 19 


62 


13 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



to 

51 
40 
36 
26 




163 



a 





3 


29 


I 


13 


1 


14 











_ 


5 


15 



35-64 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



19 

9 

10 


54 



65-94 COMBINED 
• OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED - 



2 
6 
5 

9 
14 



4 




29 




35 




37 


9 


37 


15 


~ 


_ 


142 


7 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


35-44 














45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-34 
35-94 




0,017 
. 016 
0.020 
0.010 
-0.013 


O.OtO 
0.005 
0.004 
0, 005 
0.020 


0.082 
0.001 
0.001 
0.030 
0.499 


0.393 
0.4O9 
0.494 
0.257 
-0.335 


0.226 
0. 123 
0. 100 
118 
0.495 


35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.022. 
0,016 


0.004 
0.003 


O.DOI 
0.001 


0.51' 
0.398 


0.093 
0.075 


35-64 
65-94 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.016 
0.015 


0.004 
0.003 


0.001 
0.00 1 


0.379 
0.365 


0. 105 
0.076 


35-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.013 
0.010 


0.005 
0.003 


0.008 
0.001 


0, 312 
0.255 


0.117 
0.079 



235 



TABLE 12-2 DATE-19APR8 5 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
BY AGE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAM' FRAMINGHAM STUDY 30-YEAR FOLLOWUP 



SEX: MALE 

EVENT: CORONARY HEART DISEASE DEATH 
RISK FACTOR: DIASTOLIC BLOOD PRESSURE, 
PERSONS AT RISK: AL'L PERSONS ALIVE 



FIRST EXAMINER (MM HG) 



RISK 

fACTOR 

20-74 
75-84 
55-94 
95-104 
105-160 

UNKNOHN 
TOTAL 



JS-44 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1015 
16 17 
120J 
509 
175 




4S19 



I 

4 1 

1 







6 I 



45-54 AT EXAM 55-64 «r EXAM 65-74 AT EXAM 

PERSON < OF ANNUAL PERSON • OF ANNUAL PERSON I OF ANNUAL 

EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1543 
256 I 
2151 
1073 
439 


5067 



1 1 
1 I 
9 
7 


49 



2092 


30 


3165 


28 


2228 


35 


1114 


17 


47 1 


10 








9070 


120 



1524 


26 


9 


1643 


28 


9 


1072 


25 


12 


425 


21 


25 


170 


9 


26 








. 


4534 


109 


1 1 



^ 
1 



75-S4 AT EXAM 
RISK PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
FACTOR EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



55-94 AT EXAM 35-64 COMBINED 

PERSON I OF ANNUAL I OF AGE- 

EXAMS EVENTS RATE EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



65-94 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVEHTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



20-74 
75-54 
85-94 
95-104 
105-160 

UNKNOHN 
TOTAL 



540 


25 


25 


440 


19 


22 


244 


S 


16 


71 


3 


21 


JO 


6 


100 








_ 


1345 


64 


24 



30 

15 

5 






50 



42 


S 


4 


55 


13 


13 


43 


3 


3 


47 


I 1 


12 


47 


.4 


4 


34 


13 


14 


26 


5 


5 


24 


24 


24 


17 


8 


8 


IS 


38 


42 





_ 







„ 




175 


4 


4 


175 


14 


14 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 

COEFFICIENT 


STD 

SE 


35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
55-94 




-0.037 
0.026 
0.014 
0.026 
0.001 


0.039 
0.011 
0.007 
0.007 
0.010 


0.341 
0.020 
0.046 
0.001 
0.935 


-0.421 
0.304 
0.174 
0.319 
0.010 


0.442 
0. 132 
0.057 
. 0.058 
0. 128 


35-64 
45-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.017 
0.014 


0.004 
0.006 


0.006 
0.015 


0. 199 

0. 178 


0.072 
0.073 


35-64 
65-94 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.017 
0.021 


0.004 
0.006 


0.004 
.00 1 


0.201 
0.2S4 


0.070 
0.074 


35-64 
45-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.005 
0.0 13 


0.004 
0.004 


0.203 

0.027 


0.090 
0. 166 


0.071 
0.075 



SEX: FEMALE 

EVENT: CORONARY HEART DISEASE DEATH 
RISK FACTOR: DIASTOLIC SLOOD PRESSURE, 
PERSONS AT RISK: ALL PERSONS ALIVE 



FIRST EXAMINER (MM HO) 



35-44 AT EXAM 
RISK PERSON • OF ANNUAL 

FACTOR EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



45-54 AT EXAM 55-64 AT EXAM 65-74 AT EXAM 

PERSON t OF ANNUAL PERSON I OF ANNUAL PERSON • OF ANNUAL 

EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



20-74 

75-84 
85-94 
95-104 
105-160 

UNKNOHN 
TOTAL 



2164 

2031 

938 

324 

112 


5419 



2657 

3573 

2395 

94 1 

506 


1 
4 

3 
1 
1 



1 

1 
1 
1 


31 10 
4005 
3000 
1343 
640 


9 

7 
14 

7 
5 


I 
1 
2 

3 
4 


2049 

24 14 

1622 

655 

311 


20 

25 

12 

9 

9 


5 

5 

4 

7 

14 



10072 



10 






12103 



42 


2 



7103 



75 


5 



75-84 AT EXAM 
RISK PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
FACTOR EXAHS EVENTS RATE 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



35-44 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



45-94 COMBINED 
I OF ACE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



20-74 
75-84 
85-94 

95-104 
105-140 

UNKNOHN 
TOTAL 



AGE AT 

EXAM 

35-44 
45-54 
55-44 
45-74 
75-84 
85-94 

35-64 
65-94 

35-64 
65-94 

35-64 
65-94 



914 


24 


14 


722 


13 


9 


535 


14 


15 


178 


5 


14 


45 


2 


15 








_ 


2419 


42 


13 



COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 



0.027 

0.026 

0.019 

-0.003 

-0.051 



UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 



BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 



MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 



030 . 
004 



025 
008 



0. 019 
0.004 



73 4 

56 1 

25 

7 

2 


27 
9 





1 1 
1 1 
17 
9 
6 



163 5 


15 



54 


LOGISTIC 


REGRESSIONS 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 




P-VALUE 


0.022 
0.011 
0.009 
O.OIO 
0.033 




0.209 
0.014 
0.033 
0.799 
0. 121 


0. 009 
0.007 




0.001 
0.594 


0.010 
0. 007 




0.011 
0.206 


0.010 
0.007 




0.058 
0.323 



50 
39 
28 
14 
1 1 


142 



STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 



0.334 

0.331 

0.232 

-0.033 

-0.66 I 

0.37 1 
0.044 

0.304 
0. 105 

0.240 
0.081 



8 

4 
■6 

8 
14 



STD 
5£ 



0.248 
0. 137 
0. 109 
0. 130 
0.427 



I 14 
084 



0. 120- 
0.083 



0. 127 
0.082 



7 

9 

14 



237 



TAJBLE 12-3A 



DATE-30AUG85 



AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER rOOO PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
BT AGE AMD LEVEL Of RISK FACTOR AT EXAMi FRAMIHGHAM STUDY iO-Y£AR fOLLQWUP 

SEXi MALE 

EVENT: CORONARY HEART DISEASE DEATH 

RISK FACTORi HYPERTENSION l.'ITH ANTIHYPERTENSIVE TREATMENT 

PERSONS AI RISK' ALL PERSONS ALIVE 



RISK 
FACTOR 

NO 

BORDER 
DEFINITE 
TREATED 

UHKNOHH 

TOTAL 



35-44 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1514 

Stl 

24 




4519 



J 


1 


2 


1 








1 


21 


a 


_ 


4 


1 



45-54 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 

EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



4265 

2287 

1214 

50 1 


8047 



17 
12 

13 
7 



2 
5 

5 
12 



55-04 AT EXAM 65-74 AT EXAM 

PERSON • OF ANNUAL PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



4177 


57 


4 


2570 


51 


4 


l<i2S 


22 


8 


895 


50 


17 








« 


9070 


120 


7 



1810 


21 


6 


1514 


28 


9 


698 


24 


17 


812 


56 


22 








_ 


4854 


109 


1 1 



( 



75-64 AT EXAM 
RISK PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
FACTOR EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



35-64 COMBINED 
« OF ACE- 

eVEHTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



45-94 COMBINED 
» OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



NO 

BORDER 
DEFIHITI 
TREATED 

UNKNOHN 
TOTAL 



470 
424 
190 
26 1 


1545 



18 
20 
I I 
15 


44 



19 

24 
29 
29 



19 
16 
5 

10 



50 



57 


5 


3 


z: 


8 


9 


45 


4 


4 


48 


12 


12 


55 


6 


5 


54 


20 


20 


58 


16 


14 


52 


24 


24 


. 


- 







_ 




175 


4 


4 


175 


14 


14 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


StD 

SE 


55-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 




0.264 
0.6 10 
0.478 
0.655 
0.214 


0.544 
0.173 
O.llO 
0.126 
0.156 


0.62S 
0.001 

o.aot 

O.OQI 
0.170 


0. 184 
0.473 
0.392 • 
0.541 
0.178 


0.379 
0.134 
0.091 
0'. 104 
0.129 


55-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.604 
0.5II 


0.092 

0.097 


0.001 
0.001 


0.475 
0.425 


0.072 
0.080 


55-64 
65-94 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.484 
0.505 


0.092 
0.097 


0.001 
0.001 


0.382 
0.417 


B.072 
0.080 


55-64 
45-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.554 
0.575 


0.097 
0. 101 


0.001 ; 

0.001 - 


e.280 

0.308 


a.07« 

0.083 



SEXt FEMALE 

EVENT' CORONARY HEART DISEASE DEATH 

RISK FACTOR' HYPERTENSION VITH ANTIHYPERTENSIVE TREATMENT 

PERSONS AT RISK' ALL PERSONS ALIVE 



55-44 AT EXAM 45-54 AT EXAM 

RISK PERSON I OF ANNUAL PERSON I OF ANNUAL 

FACTOR EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



55-64 AT EXAM 65-74 AT EXAM 

PERSON I OF ANNUAL PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



NO 

BORDER 

DEFINITE 

TREATED 

UNKNOHN 
TOTAL 



4251 
1002 
516 

50 


54 19 



5640 

26 I I 

I 184 

417 


10872 




10 



S022 
5457 
1950 
1494 

9 
12103 



to 

14 

1 1 

5 


42 



1890 


10 


3 


2104 


18 


4 


1197 


14 


7 


1910 


51 


8 








„ 


7103' 


75 


5 



RISK 
FACTOR 

NO 

BORDER 
DEFINITE 
TREATED 

UNKNOHN 
TOTAL 



75-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



484 7 

685 14 

465 15 

787 26 




24 19 




62 



7 

to 

14 
17 



13 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON « OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



41 
57 
52 
53 




1«3 



2 


24 


1 


14 


1 


14 


1 


9 





. 


5 


15 



35-44 COMBINED 
I OF ACE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



14 
19 
13 
8 



54 



45-94 COMBINED 
• OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE AOJUStEO. 



19 
55 
52 
58- 


^142 



4 

6 

9 

1 1 



4 
6 
9 
1.0 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



ACE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUe 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


55-44 
45-54 
55-44 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 




0.715 
0.563 
0.54 1 
0.455 
-0.577 


0.378 
0. 185 
0. 165 
0. 188 
0.522 


0.058 
0.050 
0.001 
0.021 
0.470 


0.551 
0.505 
0.444 
0.342 
-0.314 


0.291 
0.155 
0. 155 
0. 148 
0.458 


55-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.655 
0.498 


0.14 1 
0. 119 


0.001 
0.001 


' 0.522 
0.404 


0. 129 
0.097 


55-44 
45-94 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.587 
0.444 


0.144 
0.119 


0.020 
0.001 


0.309 
0.542 


0. 152 
0.097 


55-64 
45-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.296 
0.505 


0. 174 
0. 121 


0.089 
0.012 


0.257 
0.247 


0. 139 
0.099 



L 



238 - 



table 12-5b date=22n0v85 

average annual incidence rate for event per 1000 persons at risk at exam 
bt age and level of risk factor at exam" framingham study 30-rear followup 

Sexi male 

eventi coronary heart disease death 

risk factor: hypertension ignoring treatment 

persons at risk: all persons alive 



RISK 
FACTOR 

<N0 

MILD 
DEFINITE 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



35-44 AT EXAM 
PERSON » OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



2672 

1326 

521 




4519 



4 t 

2 1 

a 



6 I 



45-54 AT EXAM 55-64 AT EXAM 65-74 AT EXAM 

PERSON » OF ANNUAL PERSON t OF ANNUAL PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



4306 
2383 
1378 


8067 



19 
13 
17 


49 



4347 
2922 
1801 


9070 



45 5 

40 7 

35 10 



120 7 



1980 
1852 
1002 


4834 



25 
45 
39 


109 



6 
12 
19 



^ 

i 



RISK 
FACTOR 

NO 

MILD 

DEFINITE 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



75-S4 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



526 21 
543 24 
276 19 




1J45 




64 



20 
22 
34 



24 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

24 
21 

5 


50 



J5-64 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



65-94 COMBINED 
• OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



6S 


: 


3 


46 


9 


9 


55 


4 


4 


70 


14 


14 


52 


7 


6 


59 


23 


23 





. 







_ 




7S 


4 


4 


175 


14 


14 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 




-0.471 
0.512 
0.313 
0.569 
0.233 


0.709 
0.175 
0.114 
0,126 
0.163 


0.506 
0.003 
0.005 
0.001 
0.092 


-0.327 
0.333 
0.246 
0.432 
0.212 


0.491 
0.133 
0.033 
0. 096 
0.126 


35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.424 
0.478 


0.094 
0.100 


0.001 
0.001 


0.320 
0.362 


0.071 
0.075 


35-64 
65-94 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.342 
0.489- 


0.094 
0.100 


0.001 
0.001 


0.25S 
0.370 


0.071 
0.076 


35-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.177' 
0.340 


0.100 
0.105 


0.07S 
0.001 


0.133 
0.257 


0.076 
0.030 



SEX: FEMALE 

EVENT: CORONARY HEART DISEASE DEATH 

RISK FACTOR: HYPERTENSION IGNORING TREATMENT 

PERSONS AT RISK: ALL PERSONS ALIVE 



35-44 AT EXAM 
RISK PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
FACTOR EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

NO 427 5 

MUD 1017 

DEFINITE 329 



UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 




5619 



45-54 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



55-64 AT EXAM 65-74 AT EXAM 

PERSON I OF ANNUAL PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



5846 
2303 
1423 


5 
5 
2 




1 

1 


5415 
4079 
2609 


10 
19 
13 


1 
2 
2 


2205 
2907 
1991 


13 
27 
35 


3 

5 
9 



10072 



10 






12103 



42 


2 



7103 


"o 

75 


5 



RISK 
FACTOR 

NO 

MILD 

DEFINITE 

UNKNOHN 
TOTAL 



AGE AT 
EXAM 

35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 



75-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



613 11 

1003 22 

803 29 



35-64 
65-94 



35-64 
65-94 



35-64 
65-94 




2419 



4 
11 
18 




62 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



35-64 COMBINED 
» OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 



UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 



BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 



MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 



558 

477 
571 
389 
697 



0.692 
0.477 



0.460 
0.437- 



0.371 
0.313 



52 3 
57 1 
54 1 


29 
9 
9 


14 
24 
16 



63 5 


15 



54 


LOOISTtC REGRESSIONS 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 




P-VALUE 


0.3SS 
0.193 
0.159 
0.177 
0.622 


• 


0.150 
0.013 
0.001 
0.028 
0.262 


0.166 
0.115 




0.001 
0.001 


0.171 
O.IIS 




0.007, 
0.001 


0.180 
0.118 




0.0«0 
0.008 



65-94 COMBINED 
t OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



• 27 
50 
65 


142 



5 

6 

.,11 



STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 



0.406 
0.37 3 
0.438 
0.296 
-0.564 



0.515 
0.366 



0.343 
0.336 



0.276 
0.240 



STD 
SE 



0.282 
0.150 
0.122 
0.135 
0.503 



124 
088 



127 
088 



134 
091 



5 

6 

1 1 



239 



RISK 

FACTOR 



TA£L£ 12-4 



DATE-19APR35 



AVERAGE ANNUA! INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
BY AOE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAM' FRAMINGHAM STUDT JO-rEAR FOLLOHUP 

SEXi MALE 

EVENT: CORONARY HEART DISEASE DEATH 
RISK FACTOR! SERUM CHOLESTEROL 
PERSONS AT RISKi ALL PERSONS ALIVE 



35-<i<« AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 

EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



■i5-5<i AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



55-6'i AT EXAM 65-7<i AT EXAM 

PERSON • OF ANNUAL PERSON I OF ANNUAL 

EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



r 



S'i-ZO'i 
205-23^ 
235-264 
26S-29<i 
295-1124 

UNKNQHN 
TOTAL 



1253 
1258 
!83 

488 
303 

334 
4519 







2 1 

1 1 

3 5 



6 I 



1807 
2390 
1843 
1057 
6 19 

351 
8067 



10 
12 
1 1 
9 
6 



2484 
2695 
2128 

1075 
556 

132 
9070 



17 
42 
30 
16 
14 

1 
120 



3 
8 
7 
7 
13 

4 
7 



1530 


32 


10 


1457 


30 


10 


1059 


24 


1 t 


525 


9 


9 


246 


13 


26 


17 


1 


29 


4834 


109 


It 



RISK 
FACTOR 

84-204 
205-234 
235-264 
265-294 
295-1 124 

UNKNOMN 
TOTAL 



75-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



537 
422 
232 

130 
24 


1345 



23 

21 

13 

5 

2 


64 



21 
25 
28 
19 
42 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

23 

14 
7 
6 



SO 



35-64 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



65-94 COMBINED 
I OF ACE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



27 


2 


2 


55 


13 


12 


54 


4 


4 


52 


14 


13 


4J 


4 


4 


38 


15 


15 


2£ 


5 


5 


14 


1 1 


1 1 


Zi 


S 


8 


15 


28 


29 


2 


1 


2 


1 


29 


25 


175 


4 


4 


175 


14 


14 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AOE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT . 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 




0.018 
0.007 
0.007 
0.003 
0.002 


0.004 
0.003 
0.002 
0,002 
0.003 


0.001 
0.014 
0.001 
0, 153 
0,497 


0.801 
0.284 
0.274 
0. 134 
0.086 


0.192 
0. 116 

0.0S2 
0,095 
0. 127 


35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.007- 
0,002, 


0.001 
0.002 


0.001 
0.266 


0.301 
0.084 


0.063 
0.076 


35-64 
65-94 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.008 
0.003 


0.002 
0.002: 


o.oot 

0.067 


0.329 
0. 140 


0.065 
0.077 


35-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.008 
0.004 


0.002 
Q.002 


0.001 
0.035 


0.32 J 
0. 163 


0.065 
0.077 



SEXi FEMALE 

EVENT" CORONARY HEART DISEASE DEATH 
RISK FACTOR: SERUM CHOLESTEROL 
PERSONS AT RISK! ALL PERSONS ALIVE 



RISK 
FACTO* 

84-204 
205-234 
235-264 
265-294 
295-1124 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



53-44 AT EXAM 43-SO AT EXAM ^»,2S"**.*L^^uui,ii 

PERSOM • OF ANHUAt PERSON « OF ANNUAL PERSON I Of ANNUAL 

eXArtS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVEHTJ RATE 



2350 

1419 

807 

372 

171 

500 
56 19 



6S-7« AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



2120 
2590 
2268 
1490 
1 124 

480 
10072 




2 
2 
2 

4 


10 



1714 
274 1 
3052 
2364 
1999 

233 
12103 



4 
5 
6 

13 
13 

1 
42 



897 


5 


3 


1570 


15 


5 


1912 


16 


4 


1472 


14 


5 


1215 


24 


10 


37 


1 


14 


7103 


■75 


5 



«ISK 
FACTOR 

84-204 
205-234 
235-264 
265-294 
295-1124 

UNKNOWN 

TOTAL 



7 5-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



463 
588 

660 
419 
282 

7 
2419 



n 

16 

16 

12 

7 


62 



12 
14 
12 
14 
12 


15 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



60 
39 
42 
12 
10 



3 


2S 


1 


13 








1 


42 











. 


5 


15 



33-64 COMBINES 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE AOJUSTEO 



4 
7 
9 
13 
18 

1 
54 



65-94 COMBINED 
t OF iO^" 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



6 
7 
6 
8 

10 



19 




32 




32 




27 




31 


10 


1 


11 


i42r 





10 

7 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AOE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 

COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


33-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
SS-94 




0.007 
0.012 
0.008 
0.001 
-0.012 


0.002 
0.003 
0.002 
0.005 
0.011 


0.008 
0.001 
0.001 
855 

0.285 


0.506 
0.538 
0.338 
0.027 
-0.545 


0. 113 
0.123 
0. 106 
0.128 
0.510 


55-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.010. 
0.003 


0.002 
0.002 


0.001 
0. 122 


0.458 
0. 128 


0.095 
0.083 


53-64 
63-94 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.009 

0.0O5 


0.002 
0.002 


0.001 
0.014 


0.412 
0.205 


0.082 
0.083 


3S-64 
63-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


O.OOB 
0,003 


0.002 
0.002 


0.001 
0.011 


0.361 
0.20S 


0.082 
0.082 



e 



- 240 



TABLE 12-5 DATE=22N0V85 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
BY AGE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAMi FRAMINGHAM STUDY lO-YEAR FOLLOHUP 

SEXi MALE 

EVENT: CORONARY HEART DISEASE DEATH 

RISK FACTOR: HEMATOCRIT 

PERSONS AT RISK: all peRSONS ALIVE 



RISK 
FACTOR 

25-42 
UJ-'i'i 

«7-'43 
<i9-70 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



35-HH AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



630 
551 
990 
734 
1192 



J70 
i»5t9 





1 1 

H 2 





<»5-5'< AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 

EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



961 

996 

1942 

1535 

2193 

390 
8067 



5 
7 

\'t 
7 

15 

1 

A9 



55-64 AT EXAM 65-74 AT EXAM 

PERSON • OF ANNUAL PERSON f OF ANNUAL 

EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1 121 
1094 
2215 
1325 
2656 

1 59 
9070 



1 
35 
20 
40 

1 
120 



558 


13 


12 


611 


1 1 


9 


1 194 


19 


3 


1069 


27 


13 


1382 


35 


14 


20 


1 


25 


4834 


109 


1 1 



RISK 

FACTOR 

25-42 
43-44 
45-46 
47-48 
49-70 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



7 5-34 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



283 

169 
313 
266 
314 


1345 



16 

9 
14 
1 1 
14 


64 



28 
27 
22 
21 
22 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

19 
3 
7 
9 
7 


50 



35-64 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



65-94 COMBINED 
• OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



20 




4 


30 


7 


15 


17 




3 


20 


3 


13 


50 




5 


33 


1 


1 1 


27 




J 


38 


14 


14 


59 




5 


S3 


16 


16 


2 




2 


1 


25 


19 


75 




4 


175 


14 


14 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 


• 


COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-34 
35-94 




0.148 
0.005 
0.015 
0.032 
-0.021 


0.111 
0.040 
0.025 
0.027 
0.031 


0.181 
0.906 
0.533 
0.238 
0.505 


0.544 
0.017 
0.058 
0.116 
-0.085 


0.407 
0. 145 
0.093 
0.098 
0.127 


35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.019 ■ 
-0.000. 


0.021 
0.020 


0.368 
0.986 


0.069 
-0.001 


0.077 
0.077 


35-64 
65-94 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.016 
0.016 


0.021 
0.020 


0.42i 
0.426 


0.061 
0.061 


0.076 
0.077 


35-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


-0.003 
0.010 


0.021 
0.021 


0.879 
0.642 


-0.012 
0.037 


0.076 
0.079 



SEX: FEMALE 

EVENT: CORONARY HEART DISEASE DEATH 

RISK FACTOR: HEMATOCRIT 

PERSONS AT RISK: ALL PERSONS ALIVE 



RISK 
FACTOR 

21-39 
40-41 
42-43 
44-45 
46-65 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



35-44 AT EXAM 
PERSON f OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

1693 

967 
1043 

558 

487 

566 
5619 



45-54 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1558 

1761 
1975 
2222 
1702 

551 
10072 



1 
1 

2 
6 


10 



55-44 AT EXAM 
PERSON * OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1609 
2144 
2371 
3003 
2700 

276 
12103 



3 
6 
5 
9 
13 

1 
42 



6 5-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



751 

1 180 
1422 
1335 
1873 

42 
7103 



9 

9 

12 

23 

21 

1 
75 



4 
6 
6 

12 
5 



RISK 
FACTOR 

21-39 
40-41 
42-43 
44-45 
46-65 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



75-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



375 
449 
437 
607 
545 

6 
2419 



11 
10 
5 
13 
20 


62 



15 
1 1 
9 
1 1 
18 


13 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



33 
39 
26 
34 
31 




163 



2 


SO 


1 


13 


2 


38 

















_ 


5 


15 



35-64 COMBINED 
f OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


35-44 

45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
7S-34 
85-94 




o.zto 

0.049 
0.050 
0.007 

-0.17S 


0.088 
0.045 
0.034 
O.033 
0.123 


35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.105 . 
.01 1 


0.039 
0.023 


35-64 
65-94 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.064 
0.022 


0.040 
0.023 


;j5-64 
45-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.032 
0.010 


0.039 
0.0Z3 



10 

7 

5 

12 

19 

I 
54 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 
P-VALUe 



016 
276 
135 
831 
148 

007 
629 

096 
340 

420 
668 



65-94 COMBINED 
• OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 



0.749 
0.171 
0. 177 
0.023 
-0.694 



379 

.041 



238 
030 



113 
34 



22 
20 
22 

36 
41 


< 

— ( 

1 


142 


1( 




STD 
SE 


• 


0.312 
0.157 
0.1 19 
0.129 
0.4SO 




0.140 
O.OSS 




0.143 
0.084 




0.141 

0.084 



- 241 - 



TABLE 12-6 DATE=12DECS5 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RIS< AT EXAM 
BY AGE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAM' FRAMINGHAM STUDY JO-YEAR FOLLOWUP 

SEX: MALE 

EVENT: CORONARY HEART DISEASE DEATH 
RISK FACTOR: BLOOD GLUCOSE (MG/DL) 
PERSONS AT RISK: ALL PERSONS ALIVE 



RISK 
FACTOR 

29-69 

70-89 

90-1 09 

1 10-129 

130-52<i 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



35-<<4 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



100<i 

2531 

628 

107 

<*9 



200 
4519 





5 1 

1 I 





6 1 



45-54 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1562 

43'<4 

1402 

331 

204 

224 

S067 



10 

23 

3 

2 

5 

1 
49 



3 
3 
3 
3 
12 

2 
3 



5S-<4 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1203 

4526 

2136 

603 

491 

101 
9070 



1 4 

58 6 

31 7 

1 1 9 

10 10 




120 



65-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



501 

2142 

1296 

428 

450 

17 
4834 



9 
37 
28 
13 
21 

1 
109 



9 

9 

1 1 

15 

23 

29 

1 1 



7 5-84 AT EXAM 
RISK PERSON f OF ANNUAL 

■'ACTOR EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



35-64 COMBINED 
t OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



65-94 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



29-69 

70-89 

90-10'! 

1 10-129 

130-524 


86 
479 
438 
170 
172 


4 23 

17 18 

18 21 
10 29 
15 44 


1 
17 
15 

7 
10 




20 
86 
40 
13 
15 


3 
4 
5 

6 
10 


3 

4 

4 
5 
9 


13 
54 
47 
23 
37 


11 
10 
13 
19 
29 


12 
I I 
13 
13 
28 


UNKNOWI 
TOTAL 



1345 



64 24 



50 


LOGISTIC 


1 
175 

REGRESSIONS 


1 
4 


1 
4 


1 
175 


29 
14 


23 
14 


AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 




STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 




STD 
SE 




35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 




-0.019 
0.007 
0.006 
0.008 
0.007 




0.033 
0.003 
0.002 
0.001 
0.003 


0,559 
0.043 
0.002 
O.OOI 
0.009 




-0.331 
0.166 
0.185 

o.ii-2 

0.246 




0.566 
0.082 
0.059 
0.051 
0.094 




35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.008 
0.003 




0.002 
0.0O1 


0.001 
0.001 




0.205 
0.297 




0.041 
0.044 




35-64 
65-94 


DIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.006 
0.008 




0.002 
0.001 


0.001 
0.001 




0.151 
0.294 




0.045 
0.045 




35-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.006 
0.008 




0.002 
0.001 


0.001 
0.001 




0.149 
0.2S0 




0.046 
0.046 





SEX: FEMALE 

EVENT' CORONARY HEART DISEASE DEATH 
RISK FACTOR: BLOOD GLUCOSE (MG/DL) 
PERSONS AT RISK: ALL PERSONS ALIVE 



RISK 
FACTOR 

29-69 

70-39 

90-109 

110-129 

130-524 

UNKNOHN 
TOTAL 



35-44 AT EXAM 
PERSON » OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

1067 

3414 

672 

96 

39 

331 
5619 



45-54 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1806 

5811 

1646 

303 

167 

339 
10072 



2 
4 



4 


10 



1 



12 






55-64 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 

EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1411 

6371 

2877 

777 

496 

171 
12103 



7 
18 
8 
2 
6 

1 
42 



65-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



597 


10 


8 


3483 


23 


5 


1982 


18 


5 


582 


7 


6 


427 


16 


19 


32 


< 


16 


7103 


75 


5 



RISK 
FACTOR 

29-69 

70-39 

90-109 

1 10-129 

130-524 

UNKKOl'IN 
TOTAL 



AGE AT 
EXAM 

35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-34 
85-94 

35-64 
65-94 

35-64 
65-94 

35-64 
65-94 



75-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

129 
976 
803 
286 
224 



1 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON « OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



3 


12 


5 


18 


9 


60 


17 


11 


63 


1 1 


19 


19 


13 


29 


16 











62 


13 


163 


COEFFICIENT 




OF RISK 


FACTOR 


CO 



UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 



BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 



tmiTIVARIATE 
riULTIVARIATE 



020 
006 
01 1 
008 
005 

Oil 
010 

009 
009 

007 
009 





17 

3 



63 



35-64 COMBINED 
I OF A<3E- 

EVEMTS CROOe ADJUSTED 



9 

24 

8 

2 

10 

1 
54 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 
P-VALUe 



SE 
COEFFICIENT 



0.0O4 
0.003 
0.002 
0.002 
0.009 

0.002 
0.001 

0.003 

a. aoi 

0.003 
0.001 



001 
082 
001 
001 
568 

001 
001 



0.001 
0.001 



0.007 
0.001 



65-94 COMBINED 
t DF AGE" — 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



1 

I 
1 
1 

7 

1 

1 


15 
43 
-36 
1! 
31 

1 
142 


1 
2 

1 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 




STD 
SE 


0.397 
0. 164 
0.318 
0.285 
0.185 




0.078 
0. 094 
0.055 
0.074 
0.325 


0.253 
0.312 




0.053 
0.042 


0. 197 
0.294 




0.058 
0.044 


0.161 
0.274 




0.060 
0.046 



9 
5 
6 
9 
22 

11 
7 



242 



TABLE 12-7 DATE=12DEC85 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
BY AGE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAHi FRAMINGHAM STUDY 30-YEAR FOLLOWUP 

SEX: MALE 

EVENT: CORONARY HEART DISEASE DEATH 
RISK FACTOR: DIABETES MELLITUS 
PERSONS AT RISK: ALL PERSONS ALIVE 



RISK 
FACTOR 



NO 
YES 



UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



ZS-'i'i AT EXAM 45-50 AT EXAM 

PERSON « OF ANNUAL PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



ma 

49 




4519 



7512 
255 




8067 



44 

5 




49 



55-64 AT EXAM 
PERSON « OF ANNUAL 

EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



65-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



5424 
646 


1 04 
16 


6 
12 


4269 
565 


84 
25 


10 
22 



9070 



120 


7 



4834 



109 


11 



75-54 AT EXAM 
RISK PERSON t OF ANNUAL 

FACTOR EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



NO 
YES 


1170 
175 


53 
1 1 


23 

31 


44 
6 


UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



1345 



64 


24 



50 



35-64 COMBINED 
t OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



154 
21 




175 



4 

1 1 



65-94 COMBINED 
• OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



139 
36 




175 



13 
24 



13 
24 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 




1 .262 
0.709 
0.836 
0.346 


0.476 
0.272 
0.232 
0.342 


0.008 
0.009 
0.001 
0.31 1 


0.221 
0.182 
0.269 
0.116 


0.083 
0.070 
0.075 
0.115 


85-94 














35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


1 .104 
0.668 


0.235 
0. 191 


0.001 
0.001 


0.226 
0.217 


0.048 
0.062 


35-64 
65-94 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.738 
0.640 


0.238 
0.192 


0.002 
0.001 


0.151 
0.208 


0.049 
0.062 


35-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.541 
0.596 


0.247 
0.196 


0.029 
0.002 


0.111 
0.194 


0.051 
0.064 



SEX' FEMALE 

EVENT: CORONARY HEART DISEASE DEATH 
RISK FACTOR: DIABETES MELLITUS 
PERSONS AT RISK: ALL PERSONS ALIVE 



55-64 AT EXAM 



65-74 AT EXAM 



RISK 
FACTOR 


PERSON 
EXAMS 


• OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


PERSON 
EXAMS 


1 OF 
EVENTS 


ANNUAL 

RATE 


PERSON 
EXAMS 


1 OF 

EVENTS 


ANNUAL PERSON 
RATE EXAMS 


« OF 
EVENTS 


ANNUAL 
RATE 


NO 
YES 


5576 
4J 




9859 
213 


6 
4 



9 


11497 
606 


34 
3 


• 1 

7 


6499 
604 


49 
26 


4 
22 


UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 


1 
5619 





10072 



10 






12103 



42 


2 



7103 



75 


5 


RISK 
FACTOR 


75-8< 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


1 AT EXAM 
t OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


85- 

PERSON 
EXAMS 


■94 AT EXAM 

t OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


35- 

♦ OF 
EVENTS 


■64 COMBINED 

AGE- 
CRUDE ADJUSTED 


65-94 COMBINED 
t OF AGE- 
EVENTS. CRUDE ADJUSTED. 


NO 
YES 


2106 
313 


43 10 
19 30 


139 
24 


4 
1 


14 
21 


41 
13 


1 
i 


■ 1 
9 . 


96 
46 


5 
24 


6 
24 


UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 


1 
2419 



62 13 



163 




5 


15 



54 


1 


1 



142 


; 


7 










LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 






— 






AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 




P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 




STD 
SE 




35-44 

45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
55-94 




3.448 
1 .506 
1 .779 
1 .132 
0.383 




0.649 

0.395 
0.246 
0.282 
1.141 




0.001 
0.001 
0.001 
0.001 
0.737 




0.496 
0.329 
0.496 
0.350 
0.136 




0.093 
0.056 
0.069 
0.095 
0.405 




35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


2.307 
1 .533 




0.320 
0.183 




o.oot 

0.001 




0.400 
0.454 




0.056 
0.054 




35-64 
65-94 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


1 .585 
1.426 




0.324 
0. 184 




0.001 
0.001 




0.327 
0.422 




0.0 56 
0.055 




35-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


1 .632 
1.285 




0.336 
0.190 




0.001 
0.001 




0.283 
0.381 




0.058 
0.056 





- 243 - 



TABLE 1Z-8 DATE=22H0VS5 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
Br AGE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAM^ FRAMINGHAM STUDY 30-YEAR FOLLOWUP 

SEXi MALE 

EVENT' CORONARY HEART DISEASE DEATH 

RISK FACTOR i GLUCOSE 111 URINE, DEFINITE OR TRACE 

PERSONS AT RISK: ALL PERSONS ALIVE 



RISK 
FACTOR 


J5- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


<<', AT EXAM 

1 OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


<15- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


51 AT EXAM 

• OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


55- 

PERSON 
EXAMS 


61 AT EXAM 

1 OF . ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


65-71 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


AT EXAM 
1 OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


NO 
YES 


',',26 
60 


6 




1 



7869 
177 


47 3 
2 6 


8786 
260 


109 
10 


6 
19 


1661 
167 


96 

13 


10 
39 


UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 


33 
•4519 



6 




1 


21 
8067 



19 3 


21 
9070 


1 
120 


21 

7 


6 
1831 



109 



I 1 


RISK 
FACTOR 


75- 

PERSON 
EXAMS 


«<i AT EXAM 

1 OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


85- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


91 AT EXAM 

( OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


35- 
» OF 
EVENTS 


61 COMBINED 65- 
AGE- 1 OF 
CRUDE ADJUSTED EVENTS 


91 COMBINED 

AGE- 
CRUDE ADJUSTED 


NO 
YES 


1303 
39 


54 

6 


22 

77 


<i9 

1 




162 
12 


1 
12 


1 
10 


156 
19 


15 
16 


13 
17 


UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 


3 
1315 



6<i 



2<t 



50 




1 
175 


6 
1 


9 
1 



175 



11 


a 
11 



c 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


35-11 

15-51 
55-61 
65-71 
75-81 
85-91 




0.613 
1 .158 
1 .390 
1.362 


0.726 
g.337 
0.307 
0.161 


0.376 
0.001 
0.001 
0.003 


a.a94 
a . 1 94 , 

0.254 
0.229 


0.106 
0.056 
0.056 
0.07S 


35-61 
65-91 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


1 .162 
1.331 


0.303 
0.251 


0.001 
0.001 


0.174 
0.239 


0.015 
0.016 


35-61 
65-91 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.991 
1.392 


0.301 
0.256 


0.001 
0.001 


0.149 
0.250 


0.016 
0.016 


35-61 
65-91 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.857' 
1.330 


0.311 
0.263 


0.006 
0.001 


0.129 
. 0.239 


0.017 
0.017 



SEX' FEMALE 

EVENT' CORONARY HEART DISEASE DEATH 

RISK FACTOR: GLUCOSE IN URINE. DEFINITE OR TRACE 

PERSONS AT RISK' ALL PERSONS ALIVE 



55-61 AT EXAM 



65-71 AT EXAM 



RISK 
FACTOR 


PERSON 
EXAMS 


• OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


PERSON 
EXAMS 


• OF 
EVENTS 


ANNUAL 
RATE 


PERSON 
EXAMS 


1 OF 

EVENTS 


ANNUAL PERSON 
RATE EXAMS 


» OF 

EVENTS 


ANNUAL 

RATE 


NO 
YES 


5510 
11 




9947 
101 


9 
1 




5 


11903 
171 


39 

3 


2 
9 


6957 
136 


66 
9 


5 
33 




UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 


38 
5619 




21 
1S072 



10 






26 
12103 



12 



2 


10 
7103 



75 




5 




RISK 
FACTOR 


75-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 


85- 

PERSON 
EXAMS 


•94 AT EXAM 

1 OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


35- 
1 OF 
EVENTS 


61 COMBINED 

AGE- 
CRUDE ADJUSTED 


65-91 COMBINED 
t OF AGE- 
EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 


NO 
YES 


237 5 

35 


59 12' 
J 13 


160 
3 


1 

1 


13 
147 


19 
5 


1 
8 


1 
8 


129 
13 


7 
37 




7 
38 


UNKNOWK 
TOTAL 


9 
2419 



62 13 



1«3 




5 


IS 


a 

51 




1 




1 



112 



7 





7 • 










LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 






~ 








AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 




P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 

COEFFICIENT 




STD 
SE 




- 


35-11 
15-51 
55-61 
65-71 
75-31 
85-91 




2.102 
1.675 
2.001 
1 .303 
2.970 




1 .059 
0.601 
0.366 
0.618 
1 .325 


• 


0.023 
0.U06 
0.001 
0.035 
0.025 




0.240 
0.200 
0.274 
0.\5i 
0.400 




0.106 
0.072 
0.050 
0.071 
0.179 






35-61 
65-91 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


2.191 

1 .768 




0.173 
0.302 




0.001 
0.001 




0.233 
0.235 




0.050 
0.040 






35-61 
65-91 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


2.006 
1 .811 




0.176 
0.305 




0.001 
0.001 




0.213 
0.215 




0.050 
0.011 






35-61 
65-91 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


1.702 
1.565 




0.189 
0.319 




0.001 
0.001 




0.1S1 
0.208 




0.052 
0.012 







^. 



244 



TABLE 12-9 DATE=01MAR86 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RIS< AT EXAM 
BY AGE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAM' FRAMINGHAM STUDY JO-YEAR FQLLOWUP 

SEX: MALE 

EVENT: CORONARY HEART DISEASE DEATH 
RISK FACTOR: GLUCOSE INTOLERANCE 
PERSONS AT RISK: ALL PERSONS ALIVE 



RISK 
FACTOR 



NO 
YES 



35-<<<i AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



■^JJI 
1 M 



<<5-5'i AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



7528 
539 



12 
7 



SS-A". AT EXAM 
PERSON > t!F ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



7973 
1097 



98 

22 



6 
10 



65-7<i AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 

EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



391S 
916 



73 
36 



9 
20 



UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 




<i519 




8067 




'19 




9070 




120 





';83'i 




109 



RISK 
FACTOR 



NO 
YES 



UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



75-84 AT EXAM 85-9'i AT EXAM 

PERSON I OF ANNUAL PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1035 
31 




13'»5 



12 
22 




6'^ 



20 
35 



36 




50 



35-6"* COMBINED 
• OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



SS-?"* COMBINED 
t OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



146 
29 


<• 
8 


7 


116 
59 


12 
24 


12 
23 



175 


4 


<t 



175 


14 


14 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 


• 


0.852 
0.497 
0.768 
0.591 


0.411 
0.238 
0.207 
0.272 


0.033 
0.037 
0.001 
0.029 


0.313' 
0.162 
0.301 
0.249 


0. 1 03 
0.078 
0.081 
0.114 


35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.809 
0.741 


0.205 
0.163 


0.001 
0.001 


0.222 
0.294 


0.056 
0.065 


35-44 
65-94 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.510 
0.683 


0.207 
0.164 


0.014 
0.001 


0.140 
0.273 


0.057 
0.045 


35-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.390 
0.644 


0.212 
0.164 


0.066 
0.001 


0.107 
0.257 


0.05S 
0.044 



SEX> FEMALE 

EVENT: CORONARY HEART DISEASE DEATH 
RISK FACTOR: GLUCOSE INTOLERANCE 
PERSONS AT RISK: ALL PERSONS ALIVE 



5 5-44 AT EXAM 



65-74 AT EXAM 



RISK 

FACTOR 


PERSON 
EXAMS 


» OF 
EVENTS 


ANNUAL 
RATE 


PERSON 
EXAMS 


1 OF 
EVENTS 


ANNUAL 
RATE 


PERSON 
EXAMS 


< OF 
EVENTS 


ANNUAL 
RATE 


PERSON 
EXAMS 


t OF 
EVENTS 


ANNUAL 
RATE 


NO 
YES 


5525 
94 






9685 
387 


6 
4 



5 


10988 
1115 


32 
10 


1 
4 


4046 
1037 


44 
31 


4 
15 


UNKNOHN 
TOTAL 



5619 







10072 



10 






12103 



42 


2 



7103 



75 


5 


RISK 
FACTOR 


7 5- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


84 AT EXAM 

• OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


85- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


94 AT EXAM 

• OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


35- 

• OF 
EVENTS 


44 COMBINED 

AGE- 
CRUDE ADJUSTED 


65- 
» OF 
1 EVENTS 


•94 COMBINED 

AGE- 
CRUDE ADJUS' 


NO 
YES 


1905 
514 


39 
23 


10 
22 


131 
32 


3 
2 


11 
31 


39 
15 


1 
5 


1 

5 


84 
54 


5 
18 


5 
17 


UNKNOHN 
TOTAL 



2419 



62 


13 


a 

163 




5 


15 



54 


1 


1 



1-42 


7 


7 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



ACE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 

COEFFICIENT 


P-VAIUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STO 
SE 


35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 




2.824 
1.131 
1 .439 
0.807 
1 ..045 


0.448 
0.364 
0.237 
0.263 
0.935 


0.001 
0.002 
0.001 
0.003 
0.244 


0.543 
0.327 
0.508 
0.330 
0.417 


0.124 
0.105 
0.084 
0.110 
0.373 


35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


1 .851 
1 .229 


0.305 
0.174 


0.001 
0.001 


0.431 
0.455 


0.071 
0.064 


35-64 
45-94 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


1 .431 
1 .128 


0.309 
0.175 


0.001 
0.001 


0.333 
0.417 


0.072 
0.065 


35-44 
45-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


1 .297 
1.032 


0.316 
0.180 


O.OOI 
0.001 


0.302 
0.381 


0.074 
0.066 



- 245 - 



tISK 

:ACT0R 

54-1 O^ 
105-114 
I15-12<i 
125-1 34 
135-272 

jriKNOWN 
rOTAl 



TABlfe 12-10 DATE=22N0Va5 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
BY AGE Alio LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAM' FRAMINGHAM STUDT 30-YEAR FOLLOHUP 

SEX: MALE 

EVENT i CORONARY HEART DISEASE DEATH 

RISK FACTOR; METROPOLITAN RELATIVE WEIGHT (PERCENT) 

PERSONS AT RISK: ALL PERSONS ALIVE 



35-44 AT EXAM 
PERSON f OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



723 
979 
1133 
923 
761 


4519 



45-54 AT EXAM 
PERSON ( OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1149 

1635 
2139 
1691 
1452 

1 
8067 



5 
1 1 
17 

5 
1 1 


49 



55-64 AT EXAM 65-74 AT EXAM 

PERSON • OF • ANNUAL PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



r 



1272 
1SS8 
2467 
IJ51 
1621 



23 
22 
26 
22 
27 


120 



mi 


24 


14 


1052 


17 


8 


1322 


31 


12 


956 


22 


12 


673 


15 


11 








_ 


4834 


109 


11 



?ISK 

FACTOR 

54-104 
105-114 
115-124 
I2S-134 
135-272 

UNKNONN 
rOTAL 



75-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



277 


13 


23 


357 


23 


32 


399 


14 


18 


196 


6 


15 


1 16 


S 


34 








- 


1345 


64 


24 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

19 
15 
14 

2 




50 



35-64 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



65-94 COMBINED 
t OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



29 


5 


5 


37 


16 


16 


33 


4 


4 


41 


1 4 


13 


45 


4 


4 


46 


13 


13 


Z9 


3 


3 


28 


12 


12 


39 


. 5 


5 


23 


15 


16 














_ 




175 


*■ . 


4 


175 


14 


14 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-54 
85-94 




0.015 
-0.001 

0.002 
-0.003 
-0.002 


0.024 
0.009 
0.006 
0.006 
0.009 


0.522 
0.881 
0.760 
0.611 
0.786 


0.247 
' -0.021 

0.028 
-0.050 
-0.035 


0.337 
0.144 
0.091 
0.097 
0.129 


35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.002 . 
-0.005 


0.005 
0.005 


0.685 
0.361 


0.031 
-0.071 


0.075 
0.077 


55-64 
45-94 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.002 , 
-0.001 


O.OOS 
O.OOS 


0.718 
0.796 


0.027 
-0.020 


0.076 
0.078 


35-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


-0.001 

-o.oos 


0.005 
0.005 


0.850 
0.155 


-s.ots 
-a.i 17 


0.080 
0.082 



sex: female 

EVENT: CORONARY HEART DISEASE DEATH 

RISK FACTOR: METROPOLITAN RELATIVE HEIGHT 

PERSONS AT RISK: ALL PERSONS ALIVE 



(PERCENT) 



RISK 
FACTOR 

54-104 
105-114 
1 15-124 
125-134 
135-272 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



35-44 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

1694 
1431 
1059 

566 

861 

8 
5619 



45-54 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



2117 
2364 
2128 
1 383 
2080 


10072 



2 



2 
6 


10 



55-64 AT EXAM 
PERSON « OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



2140 
2541 
2556 
1831 
5035 


12103 



5 

6 
12 

6 
13 


42 



65-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON » OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1319 
1321 
1536 
1 140 
1787 


7103 



IS 
11 
1 1 
12 
23 



RISK 
FACTOR 

54-104 
105-114 
115-124 
125-134 
135-272 

UNKNOWN 

TOTAL 



AGE AT 
EXAM 

35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 

35-64 
6 5-94 

35-64 
65-94 



7 5-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



632 


14 


11 


457 


8 


9 


487 


14 


14 


342 


10 


15 


501 


16 


16 








_ 


2419 


62 


13 



UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 



BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



51 
33 

31 
26 
22 


163 



39 



16 







35-64 COMBINED 
t OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



8 

6 

12 

8 

20 


54 



35-64 MULTIVARIATE 
65-94 MULTIVARIATE 



COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


0.027 
0.004 
0.002 
0.010 
-0.064 


0.009 
0.006 
0.005 
0.005 
0.032 


0.013 . 
0.003 


0.005 
0.004 


0.010 
0.005 


0.005 
0.004 


0.005 
0.003 


0.006 
0.004 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 
P-VALUE 



Q.ODZ 
0.500 
0.708 
0.040 
0.042 



0.009 
0.473 



0.060 
0.160 



0.395 
0.455 



65-94 COMBINED 
f OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 



0.576 
0.098 
0.042 
0.232 
-1 .228 



0.287 
0.059 



217 
113 



107 
060 



3« 
19 
26 

22 
39 





142 


7 




STO 
SE 




0. 186 
0.145 
0.113 
0.113 
0.605 




0.110 
0.082 




0.115 
0.081 




0.126 
0.080 



c. 



246 - 



TABLE 12-11 DATE=22II0V85 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
BT AGE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAMi FRAMINGHAM STUDY 30-YEAR FOLLOWUP 

SEX: MALE 

EVENT: CORONARY HEART DISEASE DEATH 

RISK FACTOR: VITAL CAPACITY - HEIGHT INDEX (ML/INCH) 

PERSONS AT RISK: ALL PERSONS ALIVE 



RISK 
FACTOR 

:i5-'49 
50-51 
55-59 
60-85 

UNKNOHN 
TOTAL 



15-<(« AT EXAM 
PERSON « OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



271 

751 
103<i 
203"* 

13 
<i5l9 



ii5-5'» AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1 108 
1183 
1726 
1823 
2216 

6 
8067 



6 

6 

11 

12 

1 1 


19 



55-61 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF , ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



2371 
1692 
2061 
1569 
1356 

13 
9070 



19 
23 



12 
12 




120 



10 
7 
6 
1 
1 


7 



65-71 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



2179 


53 


12 


971 


30 


15 


857 


1 1 


6 


528 


7 


7 


281 


7 


12 


12 


1 


12 


1831 


109 


1 1 



RISK 
FACTOR 

8-11 
15-19 
50-51 
55-59 
60-85 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



75-81 AT EXAM 
PERSON ■ t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATt 



853 


12 


25 


228 


6 


13 


112 


1 


35 


81 


6 


37 


33 


Q 





8 








515 


61 


21 



85-91 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

31 
7 
7 
2 



50 



35-61 COMBINED 
t OF AGE- 

EVEHTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



65-91 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



55 


7 


5 


96 


16 


15 


30 


S 


1 


36 


15 


15 


32 


4 


1 


22 


1 1 


13 


26 


3 


5 


13 


1 I 


13 


Z6 


Z 


5 


7 


1 1 


10 











1 


25 


32 


175 


4 


1 


175 


11 


11 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIEtIT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


3TD 
SE 


35-11 
15-51 
55-61 
55-71 
75-81 
85-91 




-0.006 
-0.005 
-0.031 
-0.021 
-0.001 


0.016 
0.016 
0.009 
0.010 
0.011 


0.889 
0.857 
0.001 
0.011 
0.762 


-0.057 
-0.026 
-0.291 
-0.195 
-0.039 


0.105 
0. 113 
0.038 
0.096 
0.128 


35-61 
65-91 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


-0.039 ■ 
-0.022 . 


0.007 
O.OOS 


0.001 
0.007 


-0.376 
-0.206 


0.072 
0.076 


35-61 
65-91 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


-0.019 
-0.013 


0.008 
0.008 


0.022 
0.123 


-0.180 
-0.121 


0.078 
0.079 


35-61 
65-91 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


-0.009 
-0.009 


O.OOS 
0.009 


0.265 
0.299 


-0.091 
-0.081 


0.082 
0.081 



SEX: FEMALE 

EVENT; CORONARY HEART DISEASE DEATH 

RISK FACTOR: VITAL CAPACITY - HEIGHT INDEX CML/INCH) 

PERSONS AT RISK: ALL PERSONS ALIVE 



RISK 
FACTOR 

*-29 

30-34 
35-39 
10-11 
15-92 

UNKNOHN 
TOTAL 



35-11 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

122 

291 

769 
1127 
2989 

21 
5619 



15-51 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 

EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



516 


1 


1 


1211 








2103 


2 





2838 


1 


1 


3327 


3 





17 








0072 


10 






55-61 AT EXAM 65-71 AT EXAM 

PERSON I OF ANNUAL PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1572 
2517 
3213 

2836 
1911 

21 
12103 



17 
8 

10 
5 
2 


12 



2068 

1916 

1728 

933 

122 


36 
20 
10 

7 
2 


9 
5 

3 
1 

2 


6 
7103 



75 




5 



RISK 

FACTOR 

1-29 
30-54 
35-39 
10-14 
15-92 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



7 5-81 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATfe 



1212 

686 

370 

123 

26 

2 
2419 



10 

15 

6 






62 



17 

1 1 

8 



19 


13 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



109 
37 
16 

1 





163 



1 


18 


1 


11 

















- 





. 


5 


15 



35-61 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVEHTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



18 
8 

13 
9 
6 


51 



65-91 COMBINED 
t OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



80 

36 

16 

7 

5 


112 



12 

7 



11 
7 
1 
3 

7 


7- 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


35-44 














45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
/5-84 
85-94 




-0.005 
-O.08O 
-0.055 
-0.016 
-0.028 


0.013 
0.019 
0.015 
0.018 
0.067 


0.901 
0.001 
0.001 
0.009 
0.675 


-0.039 
-0.601 
-0.102 
-0.326 
-0.181 


0.315 
0. 112 
0.112 
0.125 
0.139 


35-61 
45-91 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


-0.085 ■ 
-0 .061 


0.016 
0.011 


0.001 
0.001 


-0.678 
-0.163 


0.125 
0.082 


35-61 
65-91 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


-0.056 
-0.017 


0.017 
0.012 


0.0O1 
0.001 


-0.119 
-0.357 


0.139 
0.087 


35-61 
65-91 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


-0.018 
-0.038 


0.019 
0.012 


o.ott 

0.002 


-0.381 
-0.288 


0.119 
0.093 



247 



RISK 
FACTOR 

30-67 
68-75 
76-83 
84-91 
92-220 

UNKNOHN 
TOTAL 



TABLE 12-12 DATE=22N0V85 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
BY AGE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAM' FRAMIHGHAM STUDY 30-YEAR FOLLOWUP 

SEXi MALE 

EVENT' CORONARY HEART DISEASE DEATH 
RISK FACTOR: HEART RATE (PER MINUTE) 
PERSONS AT RISK: ALL PERSONS ALIVE 



35-<i'i AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1295 

1506 

728 

586 


1519 



«5-5« AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



2016 
259'i 
1<,73 
1 IIS 
839 


8067 



4 
12 
11 

9 
13 


■49 



55-6<i AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF - ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



2618 
2763 
1552 
1211 
926 

a 

9070 



24 
29 
19 
20 
28 


120 



5 
5 

6 

8 

15 



6 5-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



c 



1425 


25 


9 


1447 


23 


S 


802 


21 


13 


607 


23 


19 


553 


17 


15 


a 





_ 


4834 


109 


11 



RISK 
FACTOR 

30-67 
68-75 
76-83 

84-91 
92-220 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



7 5-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON « OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



388 


16 


21 


362 


15 


21 


271 


13 


24 


174 


11 


32 


150 


9 


30 








. 


13t5 


64 


24 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

17 
14 
13 

5 

1 



35-64 COMBINED 
t OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



65-94 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



Z8 


2 


2 


41 


1 1 


1 1 


41 


3 


3 


38 


10 


1 1 


31 


4 


4 


34 


16 


15 


33 


6 


6 


36 


23 


23 


42 


10 


9 


26 


18 


18 





. 







_ 




175 


4 


4 


175 


14 . 


14 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VAIUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 




0.059 
0.044 
026 
0.016 
0.012 


0.023 
O.OIO 
0.006 
0.007 
0.009 


0.012 
0.001 
0.001 
0.015 
0.161 


0.731 
0.555 
0.342 
0.217 
0.171 


0.290 
0.123 
0.082 
■ 0.090 
0. 122 


35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.033 
0.016 . 


0.005 
O.OOS 


0.001 
0.003 


0.419 
0.209 


0.066 
0.071 


35-64 
65-94 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.032 
0.015 


O.OOS 
0.005 


0.001 
0.004 


0.411 
0.206 


0.065 
0.072 


35-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.024 
0.013 


0.005 
0.005 


0.001 
0.017 


0.309 
0.175 


0.06S 
0.073 



SEX' FEMALE 

EVENT' CORONARY HEART DISEASE DEATH 
RISK FACTOR' HEART RATE (PER MINUTE) 
PERSONS AT RISK: ALL PERSONS ALIVE 



c 



RISK 
FACTOR 

30-67 
68-75 
76-83 
84-91 
92-220 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



55-44 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

1092 
1806 
1051 

939 

731 


5619 



45-54 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1918 
3279 
1938 
1620 
1317 


10072 



1 
4 

2 
3 


10 



55-64 AT EXAM 65-74 AT EXAM 

PERSON I OF ANNUAL PERSON » OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



2450 
3641 
2442 
1883 
1682 


12103 



6 
12 

3 
14 

7 


42 



1285 
1907 
1542 
1196 
1173 


?103 



12 
19 
15 
11 
18 


75 



RISK 
FACTOR 

30-67 
68-75 
76-83 
34-91 
92-220 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



73-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



459 


11 


12 


586 


16 


14 


532 


12 


11 


410 


11 


13 


432 


12 


14 








. 


2419 


62 


13 



8S-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



36 
41 
30 
29 
27 




163 



2 


2S 








1 


17 


2 


34 











_ 


5 


15 



35-64 COMBINED 
t OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



7 
16 

4 
17 
10 


54 



65-94 COMBINED 
*■ OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



25 
35 
23 
24 
30 



142 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE ; 


35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 




0.019 

0.017 

0.011 

-0.002 

-0.027 


0.023 
0.011 
0.008 
0.009 
0.035 


0.413 
0. 104 
0.186 
0.857 
0.441 


0.237 

0.225 

0.145 

-0.023 

-0.383 


0.290 
0.138 
0.109 
0.130 
0.497 


35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.018 ' 
0.005 


0.010 
0.006 


0.055 
0.456 


0.232 
0.062 


0.121 
0.033 


35-64 
65-94 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.018 
0.004 


0.009 
0.006 


0.064 
0.513 


0.222 

0.054 


0.120 
0.032 


35-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.006 
-0.002 


0.010 
0.006 


0.597 
0.699 


0.070 
-0.032 


0.132 
0.084 



- 248 - 



TABLE 12-13 DATE=17APR85 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
BY AGE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAM' FRAMINGHAM STUDY 30-YEAR FOLLOWUP 

SEXi MALE 

EVENT: CORONARY HEART DISEASE DEATH 

RISK FACTOR: CIGARETTES SMOKED (NUMBER PER DAY) 

PERSONS AT RISK: ALL PERSONS ALIVE 



KISK 

FACTOR 

(ONE 

~ t-10 

11-20 

M-tO 

il-90 

JNKNOHN 
rOTAL 



JS-I* AT EXAM 
PERSON » OF ANNUAL 
EXAJ1S EVENTS RATE 



1102 
137 

1199 
993 



26 
1519 



1 

3 2 

1 3 



6 I 



15-51 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



3220 

716 

2136 

1672 

255 

38 
8067 



1 I 
6 

19 
10 
2 

1 
19 



2 
1 
1 
3 
1 

13 

3 



55-61 AT EXAM 65-71 AT EXAM 

PERSON I OF ANNUAL PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1SS8 


55 




856 


12 




1889 


33 




1235 


16 




178 


1 


1 1 


21 







9070 


120 





3235 


72 


I 1 


163 


10 


I 1 


668 


17 


13 


127 


8 


9 


31 


1 


15 


7 


1 


7 1 


1831 


109 


1 1 



1? 

4 



7 5-81 AT EXAM 
RISK PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
FACTOR EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



85-91 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



35-61 COMdINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



65-91 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



10NE 

1-10 
I 1-20 
!1-10 
il-90 

JNKNOHN 
TOTAL 



1067 


53 


25 


125 


7 


28 


88 


3 


17 


60 


1 


8 


5 








.0 





- 


1315 


61 


21 



38 
6 
5 
1 



50 



66 


3 


3 


126 


15 


11 


19 


5 


5 


17 


11 


15 


S3 


5 


5 


21 


11 


IS 


Z9 


1 


1 


9 


9 


9 


7 


6 


7 


1 


13 


12 


V 


6 


5 


1 


71 


55 


175 


"i 


1 


175 


11- 


11 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



JGE AT 
iXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


55-11 

15-51 
55-61 
S5-71 
75-81 
S5-91 




0.050 

0.012 

0.0 11 

-0.001 

-0.023 


0.026 
0.009 
0.006 
0.009 
0.019 


0.052 
0. 179 
0.085 
0.869 
0.231 


0.707 

0.182 

0. 115 

-0.016 

-0.202 


0.361 
0. 135 
0.081 
• 0.099 
0. 169 


35-61 
65-91 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.006- 
-0.009. 


0.005 
0.008 


0.217 
0.219 


0.085 
-0. 101 


0.073 
0.085 


35-64 
65-91 


BIVARIATE 
JIVARIATE 


0.011 
-0.001 


0.005 
0.008 


0.003 
0.619 


0.M9 
-0.039 


0.072 
0.085 


35-61 
65-91 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.016 
0.002 


0.005 
0.008 


0.001 
0.827 


0.239 
0.019 


0.072 
0.085 



SEX: FEMALE 

EVENT: CORONARY HEART DISEASE DEATH 

RISK FACTOR: CIGARETTES SMOKED (NUMBER PER DAY) 

PERSONS AT RISK: ALL PERSONS ALIVE 



35-11 AT EXAM 
?ISK PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
FACTOR EXArtS EVENTS RATE 



15-51 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



55-61 AT EXAM 65-71 AT EXAM 

PERSON > OF ANNUAL PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



^ONE 

1-10 
1 1-20 
21-10 
11-90 

UNKNOMN 
TOTAL 



2583 

1311 

1373 

298 

22 

29 
56 19 



5599 


1 





8010 


27 


2 


5562 


50 


1 


1732 


2 


1 


1616 


7 


2 


630 


10 


7 


2037 


2 





1767 


7 


2 


650 


13 


10 


629 


1 


1 


621 


I 


1 


191 


1 


3 


38 


1 


13 


18 








1 








37 








33 








19 


"1 


26 


10O72 


10 





12103 


12 


2 


7 103 


75 


5 



7 5-81 AT EXAM 
RISK PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
FACTOR EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



S5-91 AT EXAM 
PERSON « Of ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



3S-II4 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ABJUSTED 



65-91 COMBINED 
% OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



NONE 

1-10 
1 1-20 
21-10 
11-90 

UNKNOHN 
TOTAL 



2139 


55 


13 


16 1 


3 


9 


99 


1 


20 


16 














- 


1 








2119 


62 


13 



151 

7 
2 




163 



16 





31 
9 

10 
3 
1 


51 



1 


1 10 


7 


6 


1 


13 


8 


7 


1 


17 


.1' 


12 


1 


1 


2 


2 


5 














1 - 


22 


19 


1 


112 


7 


7 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AOE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


f5-11 
15-51 
55-61 
65-71 
75-81 
85-91 




0.036 

-0.001 

0.020 

0.001 


0.021 
0.017 
0.013 
0.026 


0. 112 
0.792 
0.115 
0.957 


0.366 

-0.013 

0. 152 

0.007 


0.219 
0. 161 
0.096 
0. 127 


35-61 
65-91 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.007 
0.007 


0.013 
0.011 


0.598 
0.562 


0.068 
0.016 


0. 129 
0.079 


35-61 
65-91 


JIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.017 
0.018 


0.013 
0.011 


0. 177 
0.117 


0. 168 
0. 125 


0. 121 
0.080 


35-61 
65-91 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.018 
0.021 


0.013 
0.011 


0. 160 
0.035 


0. 179 
0.169 


0. 127 

0.080 



- 249 



TABLE 12-1« DATE=22N0VS5 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
BY AGE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAMi FRAMINGHAM STUDY 30-YEAR FOLLOWUP 



RISK 
FACTOR 



NO 
YES 



SEX' MALE 

EVENT: CORONARY HEART DISEASE DEATH 
RISK FACTOR: ALBUMIN IN URINE, DEFINITE 
PERSONS AT RISK: ALL PERSONS ALIVE 



J5-<i« AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



4<i1 1 
71 



<i5-54 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



7936 
105 



'(7 
2 



3 
10 



55-6"* AT EXAM 
PERSON » OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



5528 
215 



1 I« 

5 



6 
12 



65-7:* AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



( 



157 



102 
7 



1 1 
22 



UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



37 
4519 



26 
8067 




49 



27 
9070 



19 
7 



6 
<<534 




109 





11 



RISK 
FACTOR 



NO 
YES 



UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



AGE AT 
EXAM 

35-4:* 

■^5-5:* 

55-6:4 
65-74 
75-8« 
85-94 

35-64 
65-94 

35-64 
65-94 

35-64 
65-94 



75-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1305 
34 



3 

1345 



62 
2 




64 



24 
29 




24 



8 5-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



35-64 COMBINED 
t OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 



1 .181 
0.599 
0.737 
0.228 



UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 



BIVARIATE 
SIVARIATE 



MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 



830 
519 



643 
484 ' 



051 
162 



43 

7 


167 

7 



50 


1 
175 


lOGISTIC 


REGRESSIONS 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


0.729 
0.462 
0.399 
0.740 


0.105 
0.195 
0.065 
0.758 


0.359 
0.350 


0.033 
0.138 


0.391 
0.352 


0.100 
0.170 


0.432 
0.3i1 


0.906 
0.655 



65-94 COMBINED 
« OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



166 
9 




175 



STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 



0.134 
0.091 
0.131 
0.036 



0.111 
O.091 



0.086 
0.085 



0.007 
0.028 



14 
23 




14 



STD" 
SE 



0.083 
0.070 
0.071 
0.116 



0.052 
0.061 



0.052 
0.062 



0.058 
0.063 



14 
24 




14 



SEX: FEMALE 

EVENT: CORONARY HEART DISEASE DEATH 
RISK FACTOR: ALBUMIN IN URINE, DEFINITE 
PERSONS AT RISK: ALL PERSONS AlIVE 



c. 



RISK 
FACTOR 



NO 

YES 



35-44 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

5356 
225 



45-54 AT £>:AM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



97« 
281 



10 





55-64 AT EXAM 



PERSON 
EXAMS 



1 1835 
240 



• OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 



40 
2 



65-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



6955 
138 



70 
5 



5 

18 



UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



38 
5619 



25 

10072 




10 



28 
12103 



a 

42 



10 
7103 




75 



RISK 
FACTOR 



NO 
YES 



75-84 AT EXAM. 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



2360 
50 



13 
10 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



156 

7 



13 
71 



35-64 COMBINED 
» OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



52 
2 



65-94 COMBINED 
# OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



135 
7 



7 
18 



7 
17 



UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



9 
2419 




62 




13 




163 




54 




142 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STB 
SE 


35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 




0.907 

1 .305 

-0.262 

1.846 


0.728 
0.471 
1.018 
1 .193 


0.212 

0.006 
0.797 • 
. I 22 


. 1 27 

0.181 

-0.037 

0.375 


0.102 

0.06 5 
0.145 
0.245 


35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.330 
0.946 


0.722 
0.395 


0.647 
0.017 


0.053 
0.133 


0.117 
0.055 


35-64 
65-94 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.579 
0.576 


723 

0-397 


0.424 
0.028 


0.094 ■ 
0.123 


0.117 
0,056 


35-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


-0 352 
0.395 


0.860 
0.411 


0.682 
0.337 


-0.057 
0.056 


0.139 
0.058 



I 



250 



TABLE t2-15 DATE=22N0V85 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
BY AGE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAMi FRAMINGHAM STUDY JO-YEAR FOLLOWUP 

SEX: MALE 

EVENT; CORONARY HEART DISEASE DEATH 
RISK FACTOR: HEART ENLARGEMENT BY X-RAY 
PERSONS AT RISK: ALL PERSONS ALIVE 



RISK 
FACTOR 

NO 

MILD 

DEFINITE 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



JS-'i'i AT EXAM 
PERSON » OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



4101 
189 

5 
4519 



45-5<i AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



6613 
708 
742 

4 
8067 



26 
5 

13 


49 



2 

4 

12 


Z 



55-64 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



6543 

1126 
1400 



66 
15 
39 


120 



5 

7 

14 


7 



65-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 

EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



3075 

703 

1056 


4334 



50 
1 4 
45 


109 



10 
21 



RISK 
FACTOR 

NO 

MILD 

DEFINITE 

UNKNOHN 
TOTAL 



75-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON » OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



753 
226 
366 


1345 



27 

10 
27 


64 



18 
22 

37 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

34 
6 

10 


50 



35-64 COMBINED 
t OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



65-94 COMBINED 
• OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



97 


3 


3 


77 


10 


10 


20 


5 


4 


25 


13 


13 


58 


12 


1 1 


73 


25 


25 





Q 








_ 




75 


4 


4 


175 


14 


14 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


SID 
SE 


35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-54 
35-94 




0.562 
0.912 
0.508 
0.492 
D.3Sa 


0.584 
0.157 
0. 103 
0.106 
0. 142 


0.335 
0.001 
0.001 
0.001 
0.007 


0.264 
0.564 
0.37S 
0.406 
0.329 


0.274 
0.097 
0.077 
0.088 
0.123 


35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.740 
0.484 


0.084 
0.084 


0.001 
0.001 


0.487 
0.405 


0.055 
0.070 


35-64 
65-94 


BIVAfilATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.599 
0.454 ■ 


0.086 
0.085 


0.001 
0.001 


0.394 
0.379 


0.057 
0.071 


35-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.544 ■ 
0.315 


0.095 
0.091 


0.001 
0.001 


0.358 
0.263 


0.062 
0.076 



SEX' FEMALE 

EVENT" CORONARY HEART DISEASE DEATH 
RISK FACTOR: HEART ENLARGEMENT BY X-RAY 
PERSONS AT RISK: ALL PERSONS ALIVE 



RISK 
FACTOR 


35- 

PERSON 
EXAMS 


44 AT EXAM 

• OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


45- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


54 AT EXAM 

• OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


55- 

PERSON 
EXAMS 


64 AT EXAM 

< OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


65-74 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


AT EXAM 
i OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


NO 

MILD 

DEFINITE 


5166 
199 
246 




8085 

959 

1022 


5 
2 
3 




1 
1 


7836 
1879 
2384 


13 
10 
19 


1 
i 
4 


3511 
1293 
2299 


21 

to 

44 


3 

4 

10 


UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 


8 

5619 




6 

10072 



10 






4 
12103 



42 



2 



7103 


■ 
75 


5 


RISK 
FACTOR 


75- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


84 AT EXAM 

t OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


85- 

PERSON 
EXAMS 


94 AT EXAM 

• OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


35- 

t OF 
EVENTS 


64 COMBINED 65- 
AGE- • OF 
CRUDE ADJUSTED EVENTS 


94 COMBINED 

AGE- 
CRUDE ADJUS 


NO 

MILD 
DEFINITE 


830 

455 

1134 


9 5' 
11 12 
42 19 


40 
36 

87 


i 

1 
1 


38 

14 

6 


19 
12 
23 




2 
5 



2 

3 


. 33 
22 
87 


4 
6 


4 

6 

12 


UNKNOWN 

TOTAL 



2419 



62 13 



163 




5 


15 



54 




1 




1 



142 


7 


7 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 

COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


35-44 














45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 




0.799 
0.774 
0.609 
0.598 
-0.980 


0.350 
0.173 
0.136 
0. 171 
0.574 


0.022 
0.001 
0.001 
0.001 
0.088 


0.515 
0.620 
0.540 
0.534 
-0.820 


0.224 
0.138 
0.121 
0.153 
0.480 


35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.967 
0.612 


0.148 
0.102 


0.001 
0.001 


0.631 

0.550 


0.104 
0.092 


35-64 
65-94 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.742 
0.554 ■ 


0.153 
0.104 


0.001 
0.001 


0.523 
0.480 


0.10S 
0.095 


35-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.675 
0.423 


0.164 
0.108 


0.001 
0.001 


0.476 
0.380 


0.116 
0.097 



251 - 



RISK 
FACTOR 

NO 

MILD 

DEFINITE 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



TABLE 12-16 DATE=12DEC85 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
BY AGE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAM' FRAMINGHAM STUDY 30-TEAR FOLLOWUP 

SEX' MALE 

EVENTi CORONARY HEART DISEASE DEATH 

RISK FACTOR" LEFT VENTRICULAR HYPERTROPHY BY ELECTROCARDIOGRAM 

PERSONS AT RISK' ALL PERSONS ALIVE 



JS-"** AT EXAM 45-54 AT EXAM 

PERSON « OF ANNUAL PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



440S 
79 
iZ 


4519 



7«t2 
147 
10S 


8067 



59 

4 
6 


49 



2 

14 
23 



55-64 AT EXAM 
PERSON f OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



8611 
240 
219 


9070 



101 

4 

15 


120 



65-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



( 



4527 
121 
186 


48S4 



78 

9 

22 


109 



9 
37 
59 



RISK 
FACTOR 

NO 

MILD 

DEFINITE 

UNKNOWN 

TOTAL 



75-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON * OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1250 

44 
51 

a 

1345 



58 

1 
5 


64 



23 
11 
49 



24 



85-94 AT EXAM 35-64 COMBINED 

PERSON • OF ANNUAL • OF AGE- 

EXAMS EVENTS RATE EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 

45 
2 
3. 


50 



65-94 COMBINED 
t OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



146 


4 


4 


138 


12 


12 


8 


9 


9 


10 


30 


31 


21 


29 


25 


27 


56 


56 





_ 







. 




175 


4 


4 


175 


14 


14 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


3S-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
35-94 




1.279 

0.871 
1 .047 
0.308 


0.209 
0.143 
0.122 
0.249 


0.001 
0.001 
0.001 
0.217 


0.338 
0.299 
0.430 
a. 123 


0.055 
0.049 
0.050 
0.104 


35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


1.072 
0.836 


0.117 
0.108 


0.001 
0.001 


0.312 
0.J45 


0.034 
0.044 


35-64 
65-94 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.956 
0.838 


0.119 
0.109 


0.001 
0.001 


0.273 
0.346 


0.055 
0.045 


55-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.391 
0.700 


0.13J 
0.120 


0.001 
0.001 


0.259 
0.289 


0.039 
0.049 



SEX: FEMALE 

EVENT: CORONARY HEART DISEASE DEATH 

RISK FACTOR: LEFT VENTRICULAR HYPERTROPHY BY ELECTROCARDIOGRAM 

PERSONS AT RISK: ALL PERSONS ALIVE 



RISK 
FACTOR 


35-44 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


AT EXAM 
1 OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


45- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


■54 AT EXAM 

• OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


55- 

PERSON 
EXAMS 


64 AT EXAM 65- 
t OF ANNUAL PERSON 
EVENTS RATE EXAMS 


74 AT EXAM 

» OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


NO 5566 

MILD 38 
DEFINITE 15 




9905 

1 11 

56 


10 




1 




11679 
250 
174 


39 

! 
2 


2 
2 
6 


6686 
182 
235 


57 

6 

12 


4 
16 
26 


UNKNOWK 
TOTAL 



5619 





10072 




10 






12103 



42 


2 



7103 



75 


5 


RISK 
FACTOR 


75-8< 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


AT EXAM 
1 OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


85- 
PER30N 
EXAMS 


•94 AT EXAM 

t OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


35- 
• OF 

EVENTS 


64 COMBINED 

AGE- 
CRUDE ADJUSTED 


65-94 COMBINED 
1 OF AGE- 
EVENTS CRUDE ADJUS 


NO 2217 
MILD 77 
DEFINITE 125 


49 It' 
4 26 
9 5« 


142 
10 
11 


5 




18 




50 
1 
3 


1 
1 
6 


_ 1 
1 
9 


111 
10 
21 


6 
19 
2S 


6 
19 
28 


UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



2419 



62 13 



163 



5 


IS 



54 


1 


1 




142 


7 


7 










LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 






— 






AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 

COEFFICIENT 




P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 




STD 
SE 


- 


35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
7 5-84 
85-94 




0.564 
0.950 
0.636 




0.356 
0.154 
0.130 




0.113 
0.001 
0.001 




0.155 
0.367 
0.299 




0.098 
0.060 
0.084 




35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.887 
0.313 




0.299 
0.117 




0.003 
0.001 




0.196 
0.335 




0.066 
0.048 




35-64 
65-94 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.657 
0.753 




0.30S 
0.118 




0.030 
0.001 




0.145 
0.310 




0.067 
0.049 


• 


55-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.296 
0.542 




0.334 
0.127 




0.376 
0.001 




0.065 
0.223 




0.074 
0.052 





c 



- 252 



TABLE 12-17 DATE=22N0V85 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
BY AGE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAM^ FRAMINGHAM STUDY 30-YEAR FOLLOWUP 

SEXi MALE 

EVENT: CORONARY HEART DISEASE DEATH 

RISK FACTOR: INTRAVENTRICULAR CONDUCTION DEFECT (WITH IJRS INTERVAL MORE THAN 0.11 SECOND) 

PERSONS AT RISK: ALL PERSONS ALIVE 



RISK 
FACTOR 




35- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


4« 


AT EXAM 
« OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


45 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


■54 AT EXAM 

• OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


55- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


64 AT EXAM 65- 
1 OF ANNUAL PERSON 
EVENTS RATE EXAMS 


74 AT EXAM 

t OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


NO 

INCOMPLETE 

COMPLETE 


<<201 

280 
38 




6 1 





7487 

491 

89 


40 
3 
6 


3 
3 

34 


8247 
541 
282 


100 6 
10 9 
10 18 


4323 
250 
261 


91 

5 

13 


I 1 
10 
25 




UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



4519 






6 1 



8067 



49 


3 



9070 



120 7 



4834 



109 


11 




RISK 
FACTOR 




75- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


84 


AT EXAM 
1 OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


8 5- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


■94 AT EXAM 

t OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


35- 

1 OF 
EVENTS 


64 COMBINED 

AGE- 
CRUDE ADJUSTED 


65-94 COMBINED 
» OF AGE 
EVENTS CRUDE ADJ 


US 


NO 

INCOMPLETE 
COMPLETE 


1 180 

37 

123 




48 20 

4 54 

12 47 


41 
3 

6 






146 
13 

16 


4 4 

5 5 
20 20 


140 

9 

26 


13 
16 
33 




13 
19 
30 


UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



1345 





64 24 



50 







175 


4 4 



175 


14 




14 














LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 












AOE AT 
EXAM 








CftEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 

COEFFICIENT 




P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 




STb 
SE 






«5-5A 

65-T> 
75-8'4 
85-9"; 








5.092 
0.526 
0.397 
0.473 




0.239 

0.157 
0.151 
0.163 




0.001 
0.001 
0.009 
0.004 


0.342 
0.216 
0.195 
0.234 




0.075 
0.065 
0.074 
0.098 






35-6^ 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 




0.745 
0.478 




0.132 
0.109 




0.001 
0.001 


0.265 
0.249 




0.047 
0.057 






35-<14 
65-9<i 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 




0.60S 
0.422- 




0.131 
0.109 




0.001 

o.oot 


0.216 
0.219 




0.046 
0.057 






35-64 

65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.595' 
0.440 




0.1 3« 
0.111 




0.001 
0.001 


0.212 
0.229 




0.048 

0.058 







sex: female 

EVENT: CORONARY HEART DISEASE DEATH 

RISK FACTOR: INTRAVENTRICULAR CONDUCTION DEFECT (WITH QRS INTERVAL MORE THAN 0.11 SECOND) 

PERSONS AT RISK: ALL PERSONS ALIVE 



35-44 AT EXAM 



RISK 
FACTOR 


PERSON 
EXAMS 


I OF 

EVENTS 


ANNUAL 
RATE 


PERSON 
EXAMS 


NO 

INCOMPLETE 

COMPLETE 


5532 

75 
12 






9873 

151 

48 


UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



5619 







10072 


RISK 
FACTOR 


75- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


84 AT EXAM 

• OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


85 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


NO 

INCOMPLETE 

COMPLETE 


2261 

51 

107 


53 


9 


12 



42 


153 

3 
7 


UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



2419 



62 


13 



163 



45-54 AT EXAM 55-44 AT EXAM 

( OF ANNUAL PERSON f OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



10 1 







10 



85-94 AT EXAM 

I OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 



16 





15 



11731 
195 
177 


12103 



33 

1 
3 


42 



6 5-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



35-64 COMBINED 
f OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



SO 
1 
5 




54 



6794 
1 34 
175 


7103 



66 

9 


75 



5 



26 



65-94 COMBINED 
t OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



1 124 


7 


7 


1 








4 - 1« 


31 


29 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VAIUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STO 
SE 


35-44 
45-54 














55-64 
65-74 
75-34 
85-94 




0.302 
0.779 
0.613 


0.298 
0.190 
0.19S 


0.007 
0.001 
0.002 


0.216 

0.261 
0.265 


0.080 
0.064 
0.083 


35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.394 
0.722 


0.300 
0.135 


0.003 
0.001 


0.196 
0.263 


0.066 
0.049 


35-64 
65-94 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.673 
0.659- 


0.293 
0. 136 


0.024 
0.001 


0.148 
0.240 


0.066 
0.049 


35-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.676 
0.636 


0.302 
0.139 


0.025 
0.001 


0. 148 
0.232 


0.066 
0.051 



-253 



TABLE 12-18 DATE=22N0V55 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
BY AGE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAM- FRAMINGHAM STUDY JO-YEAR FOLLOWUP 

SEX' MALE 

RliIc^FACTOR:*DEFINITE NONSpIcIFi"t-HAVE OR ST-SEGMENT ABNORMALITY BY ELECTROCARDIOGRAM 

PERSONS AT RISK: ALL PERSONS ALIVE 

65-7^ AT EXAM 



c 



RISK 
FACTOR 


PERSON 
EXAMS 


A 1 CAMn 
1 OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


PERSON 
EXAMS 


• OF 
EVENTS 


ANNUAL 
RATE 


PERSON 
EXAMS 


• OF 
EVENTS 


ANNUAL PERSON 
RATE EXAMS 


< OF 
EVENTS 


ANNUAL 

RATE 


HO 
YES 


4406 
113 


6 1 



7641 
426 


41 
3 


3 
9 


8246 
324 


91 
29 


6 
18 


4170 
664 


82 
27 


10 
20 




UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



4519 




6 1 



8067 



49 


3 



9070 



120 


7 



4834 



109 


11 




RISK 

FACTOR 


75-8<l 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


AT EXAM 
• OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


8S-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 


3S- 
• OF 
EVENTS 


64 COMBINED 

AGE- 
CRUDE ADJUSTED 


65-94 COMBINED 
t OF AGE- 
EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 


NO 
YES 


1063 
282 


44 21' 
20 35 


31 
19 






138 
37 


3 
14 


3 

11 


126 
49 


12 
25 




12 
24 


UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



1345 



64 24 



50 







175 


4 


4 



175 


14 




14 










LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 














AGE AT 
EXAM 


. 


COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 




P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 




STD 
SE ■ 






35-<i<* 

55-64 
65-7<» 
75-84 
85-94 




1.266 

1 .184 
0.748 
0.570 




0.390 

0.216 
0.226 
0.278 




0.001 
0.001 
0.001 
0.041 




0.283 

0.340 
0.258 
0.232 




0.087 
0.062 
0.078 
0.113 






35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


1 .405 
0.780 




0.187 
0.172 




0.001 
0.001 




0.341 
0.282 




0.045 
0.062 






35-64 
65-94 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


1.131 
0.677 ■ 




0.190 
0.174 




0.001 
0.001 




0.275 
0.245 




0.046 
0.063 






35-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.932' 
0.667 




0.193 
0.178 




^.001 
0.001 




0.226 
0.241 




0,047 
0.064 







SEX: FEMALE 

EVENT: CORONARY HEART DISEASE DEATH 

RISK FACTOR: DEFINITE NONSPECIFIC T-WAVE OR ST-SEGMENT ABNORMALITY BY ELECTROCARDIOGRAM 

PERSONS AT RISK: ALL PERSONS ALIVE 



RISK 
FACTOR 


3S- 
PERSOM 
EXAMS 


44 AT EXAM 

• OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


45- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


54 AT EXAM 

1 .OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


55- 

PERSON 
EXAMS 


64 


AT EXAM 
1 OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


65-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 


NO 
YES 


5520 
99 




9642 

450 


7 
3 



3 


tlltl 
992 




33 

9 


1 

5 


6163 
940 


53 
22 


4 
12 


UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



5619 





I00T2 



10 






12103 





42 


2 



7103 


a 

75 


5 


RISK 

FACTOR 


75- 
PERSON 
EXAMS ■ 


84 AT EXAM 

1 OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


85- 

PERSON 
EXAMS 


94 AT EXAM 

• OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


35- 
» OF 
EVENTS 


64 


COMBINED 65- 
AGE- J OF 
CRUDE ADJUSTED EVENTS 


94 COMBINED 

AGE- 
CRUDE ADJUSTED 


NO 
YES 


1945 
474 


42 n" 
20 21 


124 
39 


3 
2 


12 
26 


42 
12 




1 
4 


1 


98 
44 


' 6 
15 


6 
14 


UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



2419 



62 13 


9 
163 


IS 

5 


15 



54 




1 


1 



142 


- 7 


7 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AOE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-34 
85-94 




2.269 
1.123 
1 .016 
0.691 
0.779 


0.692 
0.378 
0.256 
0.277 
0.932 


0.001 

0.003 
0.001 
0.012 
0.403 


0.459 
0.308 
0.344 
0.274 
0.334 


0.140 
0.104 
0.087 
0.110 
0.399 


35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


I .603 
0.952 


0.328 
0.184 


0.001 
0.001 


0.365 
0.340 


0.075 
0.066 


35-64 
65-94 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


1 .214 
0.337 • 


0.332 
0.185 


0.001 
0.001 


0.276 
0.299 


0.075 

0.066 


35-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.996 ■ 
0.771 


0.558 
0.188 


0.003 

0.001 


0.226 
0.275 


0.077 
0.067 



( 



254 



TABLE tJ-1 DATE=02N0V85 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM 
BY AGE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAMi FRAMINGHAM STUDY 30-YEAR FOLLOWUP 

SEX I MALE 

EVENTi STROKE AND TIA ONLY 

RISK FACTORi SYSTOLIC BLOOD PRESSURE, FIRST EXAMINER (MM HO) 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF STROKE AND TIA ONLY 



RISK 
FACTOR 

74-119 
120-139 
UO-159 
160-179 
180-300 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



J5-<i<S AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

1225 
2191 

850 

197 
5J 


4S16 



45-5<i AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1837 

3531 

1030 

589 

245 


8032 



4 
9 
9 
7 
3 


32 



55-6« AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1589 
3<i82 
232<i 
1029 
'490 


891'i 



16 
19 
15 
13 


47 



7 
13 



65-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



649 
1582 

1394 
659 
342 


4626 



7 
15 
23 

17 
15 


77 



13 
22 



RISK 
FACTOR 

74-119 
120-139 
140-159 
160-179 

tao-joo 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



75-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANHUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



136 


3 


11 


420 


14 


17 


379 


8 


11 


193 


16 


41 


106 


9 


42 








_ 


1234 


50 


20 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

7 
13 
15 

5 

2 


42 



35-64 COMBINED 
• OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



65-94 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



9 


1 


1 


12 


8 


8 


25 


1 


1 


29 


7 


7 


28 


3 


3 


31 


9 


9 


22 


6 


5 


33 


19 


19 


16 


10 


3 


24 


27 


26 





_ 




a 


_ 




100 


2 


2 


129 


11 


1 1 



LOeiSTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 

COEFFICIENT 


P-VAIUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


35-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 




0.027 

' 0.028 

0.019 

0.018 


0.007 
0.004 
0.004 
0.005 


0.001 
0.001 
0.001 
0.001 


0.537 
0.625 

0.431 
0.426 


0.134 
0.091 
0.096 
0.127 


35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.031 • 
0.018. 


0.003 
0.003 


0.001 
0.001 


0.639 
0.415 


0.070 
0.076 


35-64 
65-94 


fiVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.027 
0.018 


0.004 
0.003 


0.001 
0.001 


0.543 
0.418 


0.072 
0.077 


35-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.024 
0.015 


0.004 
0.004 


0.001 

0.001 


0.490 
0.356 


0.079 
0.082 



SEXi FEMALE 

EVENTi STROKE AND TIA ONLY 

RISK FACTOR: SYSTOLIC BLOOD PRESSURE, FIRST EXAMINER (MM HO) 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF STROKE AND TIA ONLY 



RISK 
FACTOR 

74-119 
120-139 
140-159 
160-179 
180-300 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



35-44 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

2488 
2245 

673 

156 
51 


5613 



45-54 AT EXAM 
PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



S5-<4 AT EXAM 65-74 AT EXAM 

PERSON I OF ANNUAL PERSON • OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



2717 


4 


1 


2011 


2 





675 


3 


2 


4015 


6 


1 


4168 


13 


2 


1876 


IS 


4 


2070 


9 


2 


3155 


18 


3 


2212 


25 


6 


783 


2 


1 


1654 


9 


3 


1302 


24 


9 


448 


3 


3 


962 


15 


8 


806 


33 


20 








. 








. 








. 


10033 


24 


1 


11950 


57 


2 


6871 


100 


7 



RISK 
FACTOR 

74-119 
120-139 
140-159 
160-179 
180-300 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



AGE AT 
EXAM 

35-44 

45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 

55-64 
65-94 

35-64 
65-94 

35-64 
65-94 



7 5-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON t OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



145 


3 




527 


13 




704 


16 




512 


13 




339 


12 










_ 


2227 


37 


13 



85-94 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



35-64 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 



UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 



BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 



MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 



019 
025 
024 
007 
014 

025 
018 

022 

017 

017 
015 



10 1 
47 1 
34 1 
32 2 
25 2 


50 
11 
15 
31 
40 


9 
20 
27 
11 
18 




148 7 


24 



85 


LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 


SE . 
COEFFICIENT 




P-VALUE 


0.00« 
0.004 
0.003 
0.005 
0.015 




0.003 
0.001 
0.001 
0. 144 
0.3S2 


0.003 
0.003 




0.001 
0.001 


0.003 
0.003 




0.001 
0.001 


0.004 
0.003 




0.001 
0.001 



65-94 COMBINED 
t OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



7 
29 
42 
39 
47 


164 



STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 



0.425 
0.621 
0.582 
0. 185 
0.346 

0.594 
0.458 

0.525 
0.433 

0.400 
0.373 



- 4 

6 

7 

11 

20 



STD 
SE 



0.142 
0.094 
0.085 
0.126 
0.371 

0.071 
0.069 



076 
06 9 



086 
072 



5 

6 

7 
10 
20 



255 



RISK 
FACTOR 

20-7I4 
75-3'i 
85-91 
95-10") 
1 05-160 

UNKMOHN 
TOTAL 



TABLE 1J-2 DATE=02HOV«S 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSONS AT RISK AT EXAM. 
BY AGE AND LEVEL OF RISK FACTOR AT EXAM> FRAMIHGHAM STUDY JO-YEAR FOLLOHUP 

SEX: MALE 

EVENT: STROKE AND TIA ONLY 

RISK factor: DIASTOLIC BLOOD PRESSURE, FIRST EXAMINER (MM HO) 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF STROKE AND TIA ONLY 



JS-li* AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 

1015 
161<< 
1203 

509 

175 


<iS16 



:i5-5<^ AT EXAM 55-64 AT EXAM 

PERSON I OF ANNUAL PERSON • OF ANNUAL 

EXAMS EVENTS RATE EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



15J2 
2857 
2142 
1065 
<i3« 


8032 



4 
6 
13 
6 
3 


32 



2056 


10 


2 


3127 


10 


2 


2192 


15 


J 


1081 


17 


3 


458 


15 


16 








_ 


8914 


67 


4 



65-74 AT EXAM 
PERSON « OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



1469 


28 


10 


157 5 


18 


6 


1030 


14 


7 


399 


9 


11 


153 


8 


26 








_ 


4626 


77 


S 



r 



RISK 
FACTOR 

20-74 
75-84 
85-94 
95-104 
105-160 

UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



75-84 AT EXAM 
PERSON I OF ANNUAL 
EXAMS EVENTS RATE 



513 


20 


19 


403 


14 


17 


224 


7 


16 


66 


8 


61 


28 


1 


18 








_ 


1234 


50 


20 



&5-94 AT EXAM 35-64 COMBINED 

PERSON f OF ANNUAL » OF AGE- 

EXAMS EVENTS RATE EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 

22 
15 

5 






42 



65-94 COMBINED 
I OF AGE- 

EVENTS CRUDE ADJUSTED 



15 


2 


2 


49 


12 


12 


16 


1 


1 


33 • 


8 


3 


28 


3 


3 


21 


8 


9 


23 


4 


4 


17 


18 


22 


18 


8 


8 


9 


25 


24 





_ 







_ 




100 


2 


2 


129 


11 


1 1 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 
COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


35-44 

45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 




0.032 
0.055 
0.01 1 
0.013 


0.013 
0.008 
0.009 
0.011 


0.016 
0.001 
0.214 
0.254 


0.380 
0.668 
0. 137 
0.161 


0.158 
0.098 
0.110 
0.141 


35-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.049 
0.007 


0.007 
0,007 


0.001 
0.345 


0.585 
0.082 


0.082 
0.087 


35-64 
65-94 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.048 
0.013 


0.007 
0.007 


001 
0.060 


0.572 • 
0.164 


0.081 
0.088 


35-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


044 
0.010 


0.007 
0.007 


0.001 
0.136 


0.524 
. 1 29 


0.085 
0.087 



SEX: FEMALE 

EVENT: STROKE AND TIA ONLY 

RISK FACTOR: DIASTOLIC BLOOD PRESSURE. FIRST EXAMINER (MM HG) 

PERSONS AT RISK: PERSONS FREE OF STROKE AND TIA ONLY 



( 



RISK 
FACTOR 


35- 

PERSON 
EXAMS 


44 AT EXAM 

1 OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


45- 
PERSON 
EXAMS 


54 AT EXAM 

1 OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


55- 

PERSON 
EXAMS 


-64 AT EXAM 

1 OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


iS-T 

PERSON 
EXAMS 


i AT EXAM 
• OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


20-74 
75-84 
35-94 
95-104 
105-160 


2161 

2028 

988 

324 

112 




z«so 

3 558 

2317 
933 
505 


3 
6 
7 
5 

3 


1 
1 
1 
3 

3 


3078 
3964 
2965 
1326 
617 


9 
12 
12 
10 
14 


1 
2 
2 
4 
11 




2026 

2362 

1559 

642 

282 


20 
23 
29 
10 
18 


5 

5 

9 

8 

32 


UNKNOMN 
TOTAL 



5613 





10033 



24 


1 



11950 



57 


2 





6871 



100 


7 


RISK 
FACTOR 


75- 
PERSOH 
EXAJiS 


•84 AT EXAM 

« OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


85- 

PERSON 
EXAMS 


94 AT EXAM 

• OF ANNUAL 
EVENTS RATE 


35- 
1 OF 
EVENTS 


-64 COMBINED 85-94 COMBINED 

AGE- 1 OF AGE- 
CRUDE ADJUSTED EVENTS CRUDE ADJUS 


20-74 
75-84 
85-94 
95-104 
105-160 


869 
681 
466 
155 
56 


20 12 

22 16 

12 13 

2 i 

1 9 


66 

52 

21 

7 

2 


4 
2 

1 




30 

19 

24 






13 
20 
20 
15 
17 


1 
1 

2- 

3 

? 






44 
47 
42 
12 
19 


7 
8 

10 

7 

28 


7 
8 

10 
7 

26 


UNKNOWN 
TOTAL 



2227 



57 13 



148 




7 


24 



85 


2 




2 



164" 


9 


9- 



LOGISTIC REGRESSIONS 



AGE AT 
EXAM 




COEFFICIENT 
OF RISK FACTOR 


SE 

COEFFICIENT 


P-VALUE 


STANDARDIZED 
COEFFICIENT 


STD 
SE 


55-44 
45-54 
55-64 
65-74 
75-84 
85-94 




0.035 

0.046 

0.039 

-0.007 

-0.019 


0.013 
.003 
0.007 
0.01 1 
0.029 


0.008 
0.001 
0.001 
0.549 
0.508 


0.433 
O.Stl 
0.485 

-0.082 
-0.253 


0.163 
0.106 
0.088 
0.136 
0.382 


55-64 
65-94 


UNIVARIATE 
UNIVARIATE 


0.044 
0.020 


0.007 
0.006 


0.001 
.001 


0.547 
0.245 


0.084 
074 


35-64 
65-94 


BIVARIATE 
BIVARIATE 


0.041 
0.024 


0.007 
0.006 


0.001 
001 


O.SIl . 
0.294 


0.087 
0.074 


55-64 
65-94 


MULTIVARIATE 
MULTIVARIATE 


0.033 
0.023 


0.007 
0.006 


0.001 
0.001 


0.404 
0.289 


0.091 
0.074 



(.. 



256 



TABLE 13-3A DATE=02NOV85 

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCIDENCE RATE FOR EVENT PER 1000 PERSO